Probability of winning tournament at start [Archive] -

Probability of winning tournament at start

01-27-2003, 10:29 PM
Given below are the probabilities of winning the tournament and making the final respectively. For more information regarding this, visit .

Jiri Novak (CZE) 13.8% 22.0%
Nicolas Escude (FRA) 11.2% 17.6%
Yevgeny Kafelnikov (RUS) 8.5% 16.0%
Sjeng Schalken (NED) 7.5% 13.8%
Fabrice Santoro (FRA) 6.5% 12.7%


Master Lu
01-28-2003, 12:50 AM
Novak, Escude, Schalken are out first round. Who's next? lol

01-28-2003, 05:30 AM
I'm trying to check the website you mentioned but it's fatal error. Is it still active website or is this a correct address?

01-28-2003, 05:34 AM
It is really unpredictable the men's tennis tournament unlike women's tennis today.

But I'm really interested knowing the probabilities of winning, how could you do that? Is it based on their previous activities and head-to-head player match, health condition or anything else?

Your comment please ...

01-28-2003, 09:44 AM
Oh well, it's very hard to predict when those type of players are withdrawn.

The website is working. Try it again

01-30-2003, 12:39 AM
The way it's calculated is up on the webpage at

But basically I analyse the last 10 years worth of data. It's based on head to head victories and every single match that is played. The number of sets, games, and the surface is all taken into consideration. Check out "how the model works" at