What are the odds Murray finishes 2012 #1... [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

What are the odds Murray finishes 2012 #1...

theseth1119
09-17-2012, 01:02 PM
I received good responses for Rafa possibly finishing 2012 #5, so now I ask what are the odds of Murray finishing 2012 #1?

Top 4's points earned so far in 2012 only: Djokovic 9,910; Rogie 8920 (just earned 15 for DC); Rafa 6,840; and Murray 6,730.

How many points each can add on for 2012 based on what they're scheduled to play...

Djokovic can add a total of 4,000 points (Beijing 500, Shanghai 1,000, Paris 1,000, and London 1,500).

Rogie can also add a total of 4,000 points (Shanghai 1,000, Basel 500, Paris 1,000, and London 1,500).

Murray can add a total of 4,500 points (Tokyo 500, Shanghai 1,000, Basel 500, Paris 1,000, and London 1,500).

Situation: Currently Murray is 3,180 behind Djokovic and 2,190 behind Rogie. Take what Murray can earn up to if he wins all 5 events (4,500) and subtract the number of points Murray is behind Djokovic and Rogie (4,500-3,180 and 4,500-2,190) and you get 1,320 and 2,310; this means that if Djokovic earns more than 1,320 points and Rogie more than 2,310 points the rest of 2012 then one or both of them keep Murray away from #1.

My opinion: Will Djokovic win more than 1,320 points the rest of 2012? I say absolutely yes unless he plays like he did last year and I think he'll do much better in 2012. Will Rogie win more than 2.310 points in 2012? I tend to think not, if he even plays all 4 events in total, he'll probably not do as well as last year, but well enough and Murray isn't winning all 4,500 points. Therefore I say Murray finishes #2 at absolute best, but most likely finishes 2012 #3.

Looner
09-17-2012, 01:02 PM
Very long odds. It's nigh on impossible.

End da Game
09-17-2012, 01:06 PM
should be pretty good judging by how he lucked his way to the US open title :)

Time Violation
09-17-2012, 01:06 PM
Zero. Would have to win everything and hope both Roger and Nole get injured or something.

Certinfy
09-17-2012, 01:07 PM
Very unlikely. His only chance is winning every tournanemt he plays till the end of the year. :o

TigerTim
09-17-2012, 01:08 PM
More chance of ferru getting no.4

This slamless pusher has lucked too much this year.

Certinfy
09-17-2012, 01:13 PM
The big thing here for Murray is just trying to maintain or decrease the gap between Djokovic and Federer. Considering what Federer is defending that shouldn't be a problem but rather a problem due to what Djokovic can gain.

Then from the beginning of next year till the end of Roland Garros he needs to step it up, he's defending a lot less than the other 2 (or other 3 if you include Nadal) and needs to make the most of it. I know he's not the best on clay but he has to at least put in results to match his ranking in the clay MS events and RG and then we'll see.

It's a shame Murray had such a poor year regarding MS events though, if he were to have put in at least 1 of them this could have got a lot more interesting.

uxyzapenje
09-17-2012, 01:14 PM
2%

TigerTim
09-17-2012, 01:21 PM
2%

:smash:

2.14%

nole_no1
09-17-2012, 01:22 PM
More chances has Madagascar of winning the Davis Cup

TigerTim
09-17-2012, 01:29 PM
more chance of this being voted no.1 on Rolling Stones "500 greatest songs" lost

WvW4BKOqnro

Looner
09-17-2012, 01:29 PM
:smash:

2.14%

More like 3.14.

TigerTim
09-17-2012, 01:32 PM
More like 3.14.

mmm, reduce by 0.02 and we are closer imo

TBkeeper
09-17-2012, 01:35 PM
More like 3.14.

but 3,14 is a circle... 2,14 will be called The Murray circle !

TigerTim
09-17-2012, 01:37 PM
π , indeed

GOATsol
09-17-2012, 01:37 PM
but 3,14 is a circle... 2,14 will be called The Murray circle !
3.14 is not a circle.

uxyzapenje
09-17-2012, 01:39 PM
π , indeed

Try i%, where i is a square root of -1

TigerTim
09-17-2012, 01:41 PM
Try i%, where i is a square root of -1

this is the point where my GCSE maths skills break down.


you what?? :speakles:

nole_no1
09-17-2012, 01:42 PM
Try i%, where i is a square root of -1

You're scaring me :scared:

uxyzapenje
09-17-2012, 01:47 PM
this is the point where my GCSE maths skills break down.


you what?? :speakles:

Lol, not I as me, i as an imaginary number

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-VgPr9A1q_dA/T2431bAfU1I/AAAAAAAAAVc/KBtzNr5e18Y/s1600/imaginary.gif

Edit: But I can see how being a square root can be fun :lol:
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3257/2370790464_58ecbedd58.jpg

Litotes
09-17-2012, 01:50 PM
I am leaning towards (1/infinity aleph-0)%.

One could of course argue for more compact infinity being warranted.

TigerTim
09-17-2012, 01:51 PM
indeed :scared:

RobsonMurray
09-17-2012, 01:58 PM
There is no chance Andy will be number one in 2012, he lacks the consistency in the "smaller" than the major titles in order for him to do it. I can't really see him going on a winning streak at all.

Sapeod
09-17-2012, 03:38 PM
He'd have to win a lot and hope Djokovic loses early in a few of the big tournaments. #1 is very possible next year now that he has his first slam but it's not looking possible for this year.

Sanya
09-17-2012, 04:01 PM
I will eat my hat if it happens. His first realistic chance as it seems now - after IW. Closer to reality - after RG. The most possible one - more than a year, IMO, I don`t really believe that his way to #1 started at Wimbledon this year.

Time Violation
09-17-2012, 04:49 PM
The most possible one - more that a year, IMO, I don`t really believe that his way too #1 started at Wimbledon this year.


Don't think so, one year later his Olympics points will drop and he will have to defend Wimbledon finals and USO title; it should happen in the first part of the year, if it's going to happen.

Sanya
09-17-2012, 04:55 PM
Don't think so, one year later his Olympics points will drop and he will have to defend Wimbledon finals and USO title; it should happen in the first part of the year, if it's going to happen.

Actually what I meant, should have written clearer. More than a year - 2014-15, I don`t think it`s going to happen next year. Fed maybe won`t be his biggest deal the whole year, Rafa either, but Nole isn`t going to disappear.

ogbg
09-17-2012, 07:59 PM
There is no chance Andy will be number one in 2012, he lacks the consistency in the "smaller" than the major titles in order for him to do it. I can't really see him going on a winning streak at all.

I don't think that's really the issue - he got 1750 points in about 4 weeks at this time last year. The issue is that he's too far behind in the race due to his poor clay season. Even if Murray repeats or betters last year's Autumn stretch and then adds the WTF on top of that, he needs Djokovic and Federer to win hardly anything for the rest of the year.

RobsonMurray
09-17-2012, 08:17 PM
I don't think that's really the issue - he got 1750 points in about 4 weeks at this time last year. The issue is that he's too far behind in the race due to his poor clay season. Even if Murray repeats or betters last year's Autumn stretch and then adds the WTF on top of that, he needs Djokovic and Federer to win hardly anything for the rest of the year.

I agree with what you are saying, but my point is I can't see him bettering his point score enough to even challenge.

ogbg
09-17-2012, 08:26 PM
I agree with what you are saying, but my point is I can't see him bettering his point score enough to even challenge.

It's kind of irrelevant though. As the OP says, even if he gets the maximum possible of 4500, Djokovic only needs 1320 to stay ahead.

RobsonMurray
09-17-2012, 08:38 PM
Yeah, which is exactly why I said in my original post that there is "no chance" of him actually doing it.

ogbg
09-17-2012, 08:46 PM
Yeah, which is exactly why I said in my original post that there is "no chance" of him actually doing it.

I agree with your conlusion but the reason you gave was that he won't be consistent enough to get enough points. I was merely pointing out that it barely matters how many points he gets. It's as good as out of reach.

Cereal Killer
09-17-2012, 08:56 PM
If he does well he gives himself a better shot for 2013 though. :)

ogbg
09-17-2012, 08:57 PM
If he does well he gives himself a better shot for 2013 though. :)

It does, but that's a different question

Cereal Killer
09-17-2012, 09:02 PM
Yes, I know. I was just saying... I think we all agree that it's unlikely to happen this year.

Horatio Caine
09-17-2012, 09:04 PM
0.001%

The current gap on Djokovic is 3,180pts, with 4,410pts remaining (two Masters, WTF, two 500 events minus 90pts) for Murray to win.

Murray isn't going to blitz the remainder of the season, and Djokovic isn't about to go on an 8-week holiday either.


What Murray will be aiming to do is stay with Djokovic over the remainder of the season (very achievable), and improve on his first half results in 2013. By that stage, he might get a realistic look at a move up to #1, considering that Fed isn't getting any younger, and Djokovic and Nadal defend strong points.

EliSter
09-17-2012, 09:12 PM
Lol, no.

Horatio Caine
09-17-2012, 09:15 PM
I don't think that's really the issue - he got 1750 points in about 4 weeks at this time last year. The issue is that he's too far behind in the race due to his poor clay season. Even if Murray repeats or betters last year's Autumn stretch and then adds the WTF on top of that, he needs Djokovic and Federer to win hardly anything for the rest of the year.

His real Achilles heal has been a poor showing in the Masters events this year - the very events he used to favour. Yes, three of them are on clay, but he performed poorly in IW, Toronto and Cincy (though he had a legitimate excuse for the latter two).

He earned 930pts for his summer campaign, vs. 1,870pts for Djokovic.
I'm sure Murray wouldn't trade his gold medal for all the rankings points in the world, but it is fair to say that the effort involved has cost him ground in the rankings.

Allez
09-17-2012, 09:20 PM
Rafa is injured. Roger is wounded. Nole has been beaten twice in 5 weeks. Murray's in the ascendency. Number 1 a near certainty for the golden lad from Dunblane :worship:

TigerTim
09-17-2012, 09:30 PM
can't see how he won't be YE No.1 :shrug:

ogbg
09-17-2012, 09:33 PM
His real Achilles heal has been a poor showing in the Masters events this year - the very events he used to favour. Yes, three of them are on clay, but he performed poorly in IW, Toronto and Cincy (though he had a legitimate excuse for the latter two).

He earned 930pts for his summer campaign, vs. 1,870pts for Djokovic.
I'm sure Murray wouldn't trade his gold medal for all the rankings points in the world, but it is fair to say that the effort involved has cost him ground in the rankings.

Fair point but there were only 2750 points available for the players this summer. There were more like 4000 points available in the clay stretch (excluding RG).

Chase Visa
09-17-2012, 09:49 PM
He basically needs to win everything to do so. No chance.

KeiranLee
09-17-2012, 10:55 PM
It's highly unlikely. Though Roger is obviously tired from playing a lot recently, I still think he won't miss the masters in London and I would always favour him to win more points there than Andy. Novak and Roger just have a big lead in this year's ranking points and will, pretty surely, be in front of Andy at the end of the year ;)

Pipsy
09-17-2012, 11:54 PM
<1% although there is about a 25% chance imo that he will take the #1 ranking at some point in 2013, likely around July

Topspindoctor
09-18-2012, 12:21 AM
Noserer and No2e to tank the rest of the season to allow the true GOAT to ascend to the top of the rankings :rocker2: It's the only right thing to do, considering the Mighty Highlander will win at least half a dozen slams and will hold #1 rank until he's 60 years old - after all "experts" like Pat Crash and Mugts Wilander predicted it :smoke:

GOATsol
09-18-2012, 12:49 AM
I hate Murray but I would laugh so hard if this happened.

misty1
09-18-2012, 12:52 AM
there's over 3000 points between roger and andy right now, i really dont think andy will be finishing number 1. Number 2 maybe but number 1 is pretty much out of the question unless roger bombs

remember that andy himself has alot to defend during the asian swing

philosophicalarf
09-18-2012, 01:46 AM
It's basically impossible unless Djokovic gets injured.

Murray does defend points in Asia sure, but he missed Basel with injury, wasn't fit Paris, and retired WTF, so can make them back there. Also defends nothing next year at Indian Wells, Monte Carlo, Rome, and missed Madrid entirely with injury - that period will be be his best chance, aside from winning Aus or Wim.