What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

theseth1119
09-17-2012, 04:10 AM
Here's the points earned in 2012 alone (as opposed to past 52 weeks used for ranking during the year)

Djokovic 9,910; Rogie 8,905; Rafa 6,840; Murray 6,730; Ferrer 4,735; Del Potro 3,750; Berdych 3,580; and Tsonga 2,745.

Murray will surpass Rafa of course as you can see, but, can Ferrer overake Rafa for #4? He's 2,105 behind Rafa now, but what are the odds he earns over 2,105 the rest of 2012?

It'd be kind of scary if Rafa enters the 2013 AO as the #5 seed. You know Djokovic, Rogie, Murray, and Ferrer would all be shaking in their boots wondering which one of them would draw Rafa in the *gulp* QF. It's not easy for Rafa either, he'd have to beat maybe Murray/Ferrer in the QF, Rogie in the SF, and Djokovic in the F.

So what are the odds 2012 the top 5 ends as: Djokovic, Rogie, Murray, Ferrer,and Rafa?

Mountaindewslave
09-17-2012, 04:18 AM
what's the point of speculating upon something we have no evidence for or against? until Nadal comes back (which is likely the end of this season or start of next) we have nothing to judge. strange thing to ask, it's like asking if someone thinks next summer will be hotter, there is nothing to use to gauge. Nadal has been absent yes, but until he comes back onto tour speculation is pointless

Topspindoctor
09-17-2012, 04:19 AM
Nadal meeting Noserer in QF would be :drool: that way he can keep the streak of losing in QF in at least one slam since 2010 :lol:

theseth1119
09-17-2012, 04:24 AM
If Rafa is indeed #5 seed at the 2013 AO and draws Rogie in the QF, imagine if he beats him, it would end Rogie's streak (2004-2012 so far) of 9 consecutive years of the SF or better at the AO. I don't think it would behoove Rafa to come back in 2012 on hard courts (mostly indoors ones where he doesn't do well anyway). Rafa's only realistic option is to play the DC final against the Czech Republic, but it's not in Spain and won't be on red clay most likely anyway. I say rest up until either Abu Dhabi, Doha, another warm up, or come back at the 2013 AO itself.

Kat_YYZ
09-17-2012, 05:18 AM
depending on how many points Ferrer can get for the rest of the year, it's maybe more likely to happen after the 2013 AO. Nadal has to defend finalist points, and that's not easy, especially after a long injury layoff.

Ash86
09-17-2012, 05:24 AM
depending on how many points Ferrer can get for the rest of the year, it's maybe more likely to happen after the 2013 AO. Nadal has to defend finalist points, and that's not easy, especially after a long injury layoff.

Agreed. Don't think Ferrer will get 2000+ points from the Asian swing and indoor season but after the Aus Open Rafa may fall as he's defending 1200 finalist points. An early loss would cost him. Can't see him not making at least the QF though and perhaps even SF... On clay it doesn't really matter to him if he falls outside the top 4 - should defend enough then to be back to top 4 by RG which is where he'll want to limit himself from meeting Novak, for example, in the QF...

Chase Visa
09-17-2012, 05:25 AM
Unlikely, Ferrer's still over 2000 points back.

Sri
09-17-2012, 06:41 AM
How the hell will Ferrer manage to get 2K points in the rest of this year?

Looner
09-17-2012, 08:12 AM
Ferrer to make the WTF final (and lose to Rogi :angel:) and win Valencia, thus securing his rightful place as the #1 Spaniard :rocker2:.

Mark Lenders
09-17-2012, 08:18 AM
5%. No threat from Ferrer at all though, he can't add any more vulture events to his ranking so his point total will stagnate now.

The only threat is Berdych or especially Del Potro going on a tear in the indoor season, making deep runs all events and winning a Masters and/or WTF.

Pusha T
09-17-2012, 08:36 AM
Nadal meeting Noserer in QF would be :drool: that way he can keep the streak of losing in QF in at least one slam since 2010 :lol:
More likely is Nadal stretching his streak of losing before the QF to 2 majors.

Time Violation
09-17-2012, 09:04 AM
How the hell will Ferrer manage to get 2K points in the rest of this year?

He got 1,5k last year :) I don't think he will do it, but mathematically it's possible.

Nole Rules
09-17-2012, 09:12 AM
Tennis will certainly die if shitrer becomes ahead of Nadal in the rankings.

BroTree123
09-17-2012, 09:14 AM
Nadal meeting Noserer in QF would be :drool: that way he can keep the streak of losing in QF in at least one slam since 2010 :lol:

Would also be a great chance for Noserer to complete his GS QF set :rocker2:

Sombrerero loco
09-17-2012, 09:26 AM
no way this could happen

TigerTim
09-17-2012, 09:29 AM
Would be nice to see another Nadal v Murray QF at the Aussie


We all know what happened last time :D

yesyesok
09-17-2012, 09:35 AM
Not happening.

If Nadal's injury takes him out Australia (which could well happen considering how long he's been out for already, although probably won't) he could fall as low as number 6.

The fact he won Rome MC Barca and FO so close together means he'll keep 4500 points until April which is enough to keep a player in the top 5, and possibly even the top 4.

Slasher1985
09-17-2012, 09:52 AM
How the hell will Ferrer manage to get 2K points in the rest of this year?

Unlikely, Ferrer's still over 2000 points back.

Actually, there are 1425 points now. Nadal has 590 points to defend, so if he can't participate this season, Ferrer needs to make 835 points more than the points he has to defend (1540). Having said that, it would mean a bunch of very tough scenarios:

A. Winning Paris, Final in either Tokyo or Valencia, Semifinal in the other, Final in Shanghai, 400 points in the WTF.

B. Final in Paris, Winning Shanghai, Final in either Tokyo or Valencia, Semifinal in the other, 400 points in the WTF

C. Winning Valencia and Tokyo, SF in Paris, F in Shanghai, 600 points in WTF

D. Win WTF, SF in Valencia, Tokyo, Shanghai, QF in Paris.

And many many more...

Ferrer needs to make 2375 + 1 points in this part of the season to pass Nadal.

Mark Lenders
09-17-2012, 09:59 AM
Tennis will certainly die if shitrer becomes ahead of Nadal in the rankings.

Indeed, Ferrer in the top 4 would be the final nail in tennis's coffin. But it won't happen.

The only possible threat to Rafa's #4 is Berdych or Delpo going on a tear in the indoor season - going deep in all events and winning a Masters and/or WTF. They'd still need about 3k points, so it's very, very unlikely. Rafa will remain #4.

MaxPower
09-17-2012, 10:01 AM
If Rafa defended Roger points then yes it would maybe happen but the truth is that Nadal is an indoor mug and doesn't defend nearly enough points in this part of the season.


IF Nadal is injured during 2013 clay season....then his ranking would drop like a stone.

Certinfy
09-17-2012, 10:43 AM
Berdych and Del Potro are a lot more likely to do it.

Tsongs would have been my favourite to do it but he's way too far behind. :(

Mark Lenders
09-17-2012, 10:53 AM
Berdych and Del Potro are a lot more likely to do it.

Tsongs would have been my favourite to do it but he's way too far behind. :(

Having even a 0.1% chance would make them more likely to do it. Ferrer is a reknowned indoor mug and has run out of vulture events to add to his ranking points, he'll be lucky to stay #5 let alone climb any further.

But this is a non-issue, Rafa will stay #4.

redshift36188
09-17-2012, 10:58 AM
No chance of Rafa losing #4 before the Aussie Open.

n8
09-17-2012, 11:02 AM
Nadal meeting Noserer in QF would be :drool: that way he can keep the streak of losing in QF in at least one slam since 2010 :lol:

Good thing Rafa avoided such a heinous streak by going out before the quarters at Wimbledon. :cool:

UKTennisMag
09-17-2012, 12:30 PM
It certainly would make a Slam extremely interesting if any of the big four dropped out of it for a small period. Tsonga must have been close earlier on in the year?

Tutu
09-17-2012, 12:34 PM
It certainly would make a Slam extremely interesting if any of the big four dropped out of it for a small period. Tsonga must have been close earlier on in the year?
I don't think anyone outside of the top 4 has been within 1000 points of Murray since Soderling (:tears:).

ogbg
09-17-2012, 12:39 PM
80/1

UKTennisMag
09-17-2012, 12:40 PM
I don't think anyone outside of the top 4 has been within 1000 points of Murray since Soderling (:tears:).

Ah right, yeah Soderling certainly was a huge threat at his peak. Perhaps Berdych can prove a better version of Soderling next year and go on to break the monopoly. Only player who has a chance I think.

Thunderfish8
09-17-2012, 12:47 PM
I think the optimal time for Ferrer to overtake Nadal will be after Monte-Carlo.
Ferrer only has to defend QF at AO, his lesser clay court titles (which he will definitely defend) and QF at Miami.

Nadal has to defend F at AO, semis at both IW and Miami, and a title in Monte-Carlo.
I would say that he has a good chance at defend most, if not all of them but after an injury it's tough to suddenly get right back to making deep runs without any risk of upset.

lidal
09-17-2012, 01:10 PM
No chance of Rafa losing #4 before the Aussie Open.

This.

Ferrer is a reknowned indoor mug and has run out of vulture events to add to his ranking points, he'll be lucky to stay #5 let alone climb any further.

:rolleyes:

This "indoor mug" was TMC 2007 runer-up (lost to Fed)... And he was in WTF 2011 semis too.

Certinfy
09-17-2012, 01:19 PM
:rolleyes:

This "indoor mug" was TMC 2007 runer-up (lost to Fed)... And he was in WTF 2011 semis too.Murray is a mug on clay and has a RG SF and a few MS semis too. Doesn't mean shit to be honest.

guichard
09-17-2012, 01:33 PM
Actually, there are 1425 points now.


They were looking at the Race Ranking. so they don't have to worry about points to defend

End da Game
09-17-2012, 01:42 PM
impossible

Slasher1985
09-17-2012, 01:58 PM
They were looking at the Race Ranking. so they don't have to worry about points to defend

They were also talking about #5 seed at AO. Race Ranking is irrelevant for that. Actually, Race Ranking is irrelevant for anything. :lol:

Looner
09-17-2012, 02:13 PM
They were also talking about #5 seed at AO. Race Ranking is irrelevant for that. Actually, Race Ranking is irrelevant for anything. :lol:

The race ranking is like the most relevant for the AO seeding. You know better than anyone that race + points until YE are basically what counts for the AO seeding :shrug:.

mooncreek
09-17-2012, 02:13 PM
While I'm tempted to say there's no chance, David has actually made a couple of nice runs at WTF - including beating Murray and Djokovic back to back last year. Add on runs in the Asian swing and Valencia - the possibility is there.

While Rafa does have those finalist points from Australian Open, Ferrer won 3 tournaments (@ 250s & 1 500)+ QFs of AO in the first two months so it's not given it'd happen then either.

Slasher1985
09-17-2012, 02:17 PM
The race ranking is like the most relevant for the AO seeding. You know better than anyone that race + points until YE are basically what counts for the AO seeding :shrug:.

I was merely joking around. To see that you guys were right at the 2K thing, I pointed out that Ferrer needs to make 2375 points by the end of the year to be 5th. Guichard didn't notice that, so I decided to laugh a bit. He should have checked the end of my earlier post.:D

Looner
09-17-2012, 02:19 PM
I was merely joking around. To see that you guys were right at the 2K thing, I pointed out that Ferrer needs to make 2375 points by the end of the year to be 5th. Guichard didn't notice that, so I decided to laugh a bit. He should have checked the end of my earlier post.:D

Ah, OK. A bit of a :stupid: post from me then.

lidal
09-17-2012, 02:37 PM
Murray is a mug on clay and has a RG SF and a few MS semis too. Doesn't mean shit to be honest.

Clay is by far worst Muzza's surface, true, but he isn't a mug anymore, even on clay. :shrug:

guichard
09-17-2012, 02:41 PM
I was merely joking around. To see that you guys were right at the 2K thing, I pointed out that Ferrer needs to make 2375 points by the end of the year to be 5th. Guichard didn't notice that, so I decided to laugh a bit. He should have checked the end of my earlier post.:D
No I did notice that. (Assuming Nadal doesn't play this year) Ferrer is only 2060 points behind Nadal ( a bit less when you consider that for the ranking of november 23 Nadal will lose 150 points for 2011 davis cup final)in the race ranking, so that's what he needs(+1) to finish the year #4.


Neither those 2 posts mentioned AO seeding, they were responding to the questions "What are the odds Rafa finish 2012 #5"

DJ Soup
09-17-2012, 04:07 PM
Really the ranking doesn't matter much when it's Nadal. It's more interesting to see at what level he will be able to come back. Or if we will start seeing a more evident decline in his game.

Sapeod
09-17-2012, 04:12 PM
David can get those 2000 points. He's consistent and if he gets a good end of the year, it's very possible. I can see Nadal becoming #5 and I hope he does. The further he falls, the better.

Cereal Killer
09-17-2012, 04:21 PM
Not for Andy. :scared:

But I don't see this happening anyway, sorry.

Sanya
09-17-2012, 04:23 PM
It can all depend on which group Ferrer will get at WTF. He can`t beat Federer anywhere it seems, but he has small chance with Djokovic. If Nadal plays too, I think David`ll have a good chance also in case of playing with him instead of Murray. And Tipsarevic, for exaple. Imagine him winning against Rafa and Janko, beats, for example, Berdych in a semi while Rafa has 0/1 W in group. And here you go - +600 or even +800 points for Ferrer in comparison with Nadal.

Slasher1985
09-17-2012, 04:56 PM
Neither those 2 posts mentioned AO seeding, they were responding to the questions "What are the odds Rafa finish 2012 #5"

It was in the original post. I was responding to that without quoting it. Should have done so to make it more clear. My bad.:)

shelley76
09-17-2012, 05:14 PM
Ferrer to make the WTF final (and lose to Rogi :angel:) and win Valencia, thus securing his rightful place as the #1 Spaniard :rocker2:.


Are you seriously saying that David Ferrer is more deserving of being the number 1 Spanish player over Rafael Nadal?
Because if you are, then i have to say, there is hate-filled and then there is stupid and you are clearly neck deep in the latter. Although, having read some of the things you have posted here, in your case the two are not mutually exclusive. :rolleyes:

Looner
09-17-2012, 05:44 PM
[/B]

Are you seriously saying that David Ferrer is more deserving of being the number 1 Spanish player over Rafael Nadal?
Because if you are, then i have to say, there is hate-filled and then there is stupid and you are clearly neck deep in the latter. Although, having read some of the things you have posted here, in your case the two are not mutually exclusive. :rolleyes:

Oops, over your head goes the trolling. And I love that you are an admirer but I am not a fan of dulltards. Ferrer for #1 Spaniard and rightfully so :rocker2: .

IOFH
09-17-2012, 06:01 PM
No2e-Nadal QF at AO :drool:

shelley76
09-18-2012, 03:11 PM
Oops, over your head goes the trolling. And I love that you are an admirer but I am not a fan of dulltards. Ferrer for #1 Spaniard and rightfully so :rocker2: .

Well gosh darn it! I guess I don't speak troll. My loss. Although,going by the tone of your posts on this forum, are you always trolling? I do admire Rafa immensely and am a huge fan and proud to be but, read my posts on this forum, I am nobody's tard!

Trolling or not, saying a guy who has won 11 slam titles,including a career golden slam, and 21 masters titles, as part of a 50 title haul, all by the age of 26, deserves to be below a guy who has not even been in a fucking slam final or has a single masters title to his name was a beyond stupid thing to say and I stand by my OP.

Litotes
09-18-2012, 03:19 PM
Well gosh darn it! I guess I don't speak troll. My loss. Although,going by the tone of your posts on this forum, are you always trolling? I do admire Rafa immensely and am a huge fan and proud to be but, read my posts on this forum, I am nobody's tard!

Trolling or not, saying a guy who has won 11 slam titles,including a career golden slam, and 21 masters titles, as part of a 50 title haul, all by the age of 26, deserves to be below a guy who has not even been in a fucking slam final or has a single masters title to his name was a beyond stupid thing to say and I stand by my OP.

Possibly beyond stupid. Certainly not beyond MTF. Such things are commonplace here. Some posters give maximum credit/respect to their own favourite and less than zero to the other top players, perhaps due to a belief that someone is calculating an average.

TigerTim
09-18-2012, 03:23 PM
No2e-Nadal QF at AO :drool:

oh dear. poor nadal if that happened

niff
09-18-2012, 03:24 PM
Well gosh darn it! I guess I don't speak troll. My loss. Although,going by the tone of your posts on this forum, are you always trolling? I do admire Rafa immensely and am a huge fan and proud to be but, read my posts on this forum, I am nobody's tard!

Trolling or not, saying a guy who has won 11 slam titles,including a career golden slam, and 21 masters titles, as part of a 50 title haul, all by the age of 26, deserves to be below a guy who has not even been in a fucking slam final or has a single masters title to his name was a beyond stupid thing to say and I stand by my OP.
Classic dulltard sermon following a throwaway joke :lol:

saviopr
09-18-2012, 06:44 PM
Possibly beyond stupid. Certainly not beyond MTF. Such things are commonplace here. Some posters give maximum credit/respect to their own favourite and less than zero to the other top players, perhaps due to a belief that someone is calculating an average.

:haha:

Nr 1 Fan
09-18-2012, 06:46 PM
oh dear. poor nadal if that happened

It won't. If he is nr 5 by then, they will make sure to have a Ferrer-Nadal QF so they can have their big 4 Semi-Final. It's all about the money.

Avi14
09-18-2012, 07:04 PM
Ferrer to make the WTF final (and lose to Rogi :angel:) and win Valencia, thus securing his rightful place as the #1 Spaniard :rocker2:.

Well this is as stupid and foolish as saying that Wawrinka has to go past Rogi and claim his place as the true #1 Swiss player on tour.

LOL you are the most bitter Fedtard on MTF ....:spit:

Looner
09-18-2012, 07:05 PM
Well this is as stupid and foolish as saying that Wawrinka has to go past Rogi and claim his place as the true #1 Swiss player on tour.

LOL you are the most bitter Fedtard on MTF ....

Shut up, Dulltard and go and cry in the corner :bigwave:.

Nr 1 Fan
09-18-2012, 07:05 PM
Well this is as stupid and foolish as saying that Wawrinka has to go past Rogi and claim his place as the true #1 Swiss player on tour.

LOL you are the most bitter Fedtard on MTF ....

I'm sure he was joking :)

Avi14
09-18-2012, 07:09 PM
I'm sure he was joking :)

Don't think so.

Going by his level of fedtardism i think he was serious.

May be he's too fuc*ed up by the fact that federer is Rafa's Bit*h :devil:

Avi14
09-18-2012, 07:12 PM
Shut up, Dulltard and go and cry in the corner :bigwave:.

LOL when it comes to crying then no one can beat FEDERER....

All hail cry king FED:worship:

MTwEeZi
09-18-2012, 07:15 PM
Blind hate flowing freely here. Amusing shit, that's fosho :cool:

Nr 1 Fan
09-18-2012, 07:27 PM
Why is every thread turning into a Fedtards-Nadaltards thread? :facepalm: That's so 2006-2009, anyway, it's all about Djokovic-Murray now :devil:

Looner
09-18-2012, 07:27 PM
Don't think so.

Going by his level of fedtardism i think he was serious.

May be he's too fuc*ed up by the fact that federer is Rafa's Bit*h :devil:

LOL when it comes to crying then no one can beat FEDERER....

All hail cry king FED:worship:

Nice to see you've taken my advise to heart, little Dulltard :D.

TigerTim
09-18-2012, 07:31 PM
Who gives a fuck about fraudull? Bunch of overhyped clowns if you ask me.

More overhyped than Anna Kournikova.

(side note, Interesting how my apple spell checks "Kournikova" but not "Borg" "Nadal" or "Federer")

Avi14
09-18-2012, 07:32 PM
Nice to see you've taken my advise to heart, little Dulltard :D.

Thanks for your advice anyway.

By the way did you get the idea for this advice after seeing the presentation ceremony of the 2009 AO?

"God this is killing me":devil:

Avi14
09-18-2012, 07:34 PM
Why is every thread turning into a Fedtards-Nadaltards thread? :facepalm: That's so 2006-2009, anyway, it's all about Djokovic-Murray now :devil:

Well when people post stuff like this,then it's bound to turn into a nonsense thread.

Ferrer to make the WTF final (and lose to Rogi :angel:) and win Valencia, thus securing his rightful place as the #1 Spaniard :rocker2:.

Looner
09-18-2012, 07:37 PM
Well when people post stuff like this,then it's bound to turn into a nonsense thread.

Butthurt is >9000. Obviously, Ferrer is the better player, so I don't see what you're so mad about :shrug:.

Sanya
09-18-2012, 07:37 PM
Who gives a fuck about fraudull? Bunch of overhyped clowns if you ask me.

More overhyped than Anna Kournikova.

(side note, Interesting how my apple spell checks "Kournikova" but not "Borg" "Nadal" or "Federer")

Anja deserved all the hype she got, to the last sound. :)

Avi14
09-18-2012, 07:39 PM
Obviously, Ferrer is the better player, so I don't see what you're so mad about :shrug:.
Are you serious about this statement that ferrer is better than Rafa?

If your answer is "Yes" then there is no point of arguing with a guy like you :eek:

Nr 1 Fan
09-18-2012, 07:40 PM
Butthurt is >9000. Obviously, Ferrer is the better player, so I don't see what you're so mad about :shrug:.

Ferrer is future GOAT, no? :shrug:
(thought I'd bring Lenders in as well)

TigerTim
09-18-2012, 07:43 PM
Anja deserved all the hype she got, to the last sound. :)

Worthless addition to singles tennis and tacked her doubles success on the back of better partners. Overhyped mental midget. If I wanted to get aroused I would look at porn. (which to some people here probably comes across as watch Fedgimp matches)

Nadal is lucky. Overhyped talentless moonballer. Lucky they made a surface specifically for him and his uncle runs the ATP. Frauderer success is exposed by his hapless losses to the clown across all surfaces. Justin Gimblestob has more talent in his deformed toenail that these cardboard imitations of greats.

Sanya
09-18-2012, 07:53 PM
Worthless addition to singles tennis and tacked her doubles success on the back of better partners. Overhyped mental midget. If I wanted to get aroused I would look at porn. (which to some people here probably comes across as watch Fedgimp matches)

Anja was skillful and joy to watch, results are not enough here. It was/is a pleasure to follow here matches. I would prefer watching Kurni`s play to Aza`s anyday personally, for example. :shrug:

TigerTim
09-18-2012, 07:53 PM
Gimbelstob will never win a slam

You need a nuroejaculitus vial General. It looks like you have succumbed to the infectus with this post.

TigerTim
09-18-2012, 07:57 PM
Anja was skillful and joy to watch, results are not enough here. It was/is a pleasure to follow here matches. I would prefer watching Kurni`s play to Aza`s anyday personally, for example. :shrug:

She was like a coffee maker. Good to look at, fun to use once in a while, but hopelessly expensive and largely impractical

saviopr
09-18-2012, 11:42 PM
Ferrer surpassing Nadal this year: 0.13452% of chance.

Chirag
09-19-2012, 01:47 AM
Ferrer to vulture his way to 4 :rocker2:

Roy Emerson
09-19-2012, 02:55 AM
More likely after the AO.

Ben D.
09-19-2012, 03:29 PM
even on one leg he is better than Ferrer.

TBkeeper
09-19-2012, 04:59 PM
a lose-lose situation ... Nadull injured for 5 months and still dropped only to 4th place
that screams WEAK FIELD ... but if Nadal become 5th this means Vulturemug is going to be seeded for a second consecutive time in top 4 at a GS :o