WWW US Open 2012: The City That Never Sleeps Discussion [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

WWW US Open 2012: The City That Never Sleeps Discussion

masterclass
08-05-2012, 05:29 PM
It is now just 3 weeks to the start of the final major of the year, the US Open.

Some discussion points:

We should have a pretty good idea of the main contenders and possible spoilers from recent events. Toronto and Cincinnati are the big tournaments prior to the US Open and might help give us even a better idea, especially Cincinnati.

There were complaints from players last year because of the slowness of the US Open courts. Will the USTA react and put less sand in the usual paint resurfacing and speed things up? There have been rumors to that effect, but nobody will know for sure until players start practicing on it, qualifying begins, and the first matches are underway.

How well will the main contenders be prepared and with what confidence levels?
Will Rafael Nadal be able to get enough matches in to be a serious factor after his latest bout with tendinitis?
Will Roger Federer be buoyed by his Wimbledon win and his simultaneous leap back to #1 to give him the confidence to get back to the Open final?
Will Andy Murray's Olympic victory carry him to his first major win?
Will Novak Djokovic be able to regain his mojo on the hard courts to overcome the recent hot players and successfully defend his second major this year?
Will a healthy Juan Martin Del Potro be able to rekindle his glory at the scene of his lone major triumph after a positive Olympics campaign?
Do you see any others with a chance to get into the semifinals and advance, or whom do you see as spoilers for the top contenders?

Discuss at will, but please attempt to keep the discussion free of hate/insult/trolling/baiting type comments. I'll put up a poll.

Respectfully,
masterclass

IOFH
08-05-2012, 05:34 PM
With Murray's recent level of play I'm torn which one I want in Fed's half, him or Nadal.

Federer in 2
08-05-2012, 05:36 PM
Roger Federer.

venky91
08-05-2012, 05:39 PM
These days, I think Roger's best chances at a major is at the US Open. I didn't expect him to win in Wimbledon, because his form on grass isn't what it once was.

I'm calling it now though, Del Potro will win it.

masterclass
08-05-2012, 05:39 PM
With Murray's recent level of play I'm torn which one I want in Fed's half, him or Nadal.

I would think if one is a Federer fan, one would hope that Murray is in the Djokovic half.
We don't even know if Rafa will be ready to play, and perhaps his chances will be slimmer of making it through if he does play.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Mystique
08-05-2012, 05:43 PM
With Murray's recent level of play I'm torn which one I want in Fed's half, him or Nadal.

How quickly people forget.

Nadal is a horrible matchup for Roger anywhere outdoors. Murray is anyday a better deal for Rog. And actually, I think the way he lost today (the first two sets were pure annihilation) will fire him up next time he sees Murray across the net.

Mystique
08-05-2012, 05:45 PM
I hope Roger rests up (skips Cincy too if he has to) and can come back strong at Flushing Meadows...He deserves another final there given the SF heartbreaks last two years. Hope to see u back On final sunday again Fed, lets win this :rocker2:

hipolymer
08-05-2012, 05:45 PM
With Murray's recent level of play I'm torn which one I want in Fed's half, him or Nadal.

If you have to ask you haven't been a Fed fan long enough.

Anyway, I'm concerned with Nole's mentality this year. He seems like a bratty child compared to 2011. Hopefully he gets his act together and ends this year on a positive note.

Mark Lenders
08-05-2012, 05:48 PM
With Tsonga, Delpo and Berdych all ranked 5-8, at least three of the top 4 will have very tough QF matches, which is good.

Hope we see Federer vs Berdych, Nole/Murray vs Tsonga and Delpo vs Nadal.

Should be a great tournament, Djokovic is the favorite imo, but Federer will be motivated, Nadal will be back, Murray is making strides, Del Potro is back and Tsonga and Berdych can cause upsets. Plus some potential sleepers in the draw, should be great.

lazybear
08-05-2012, 05:49 PM
I honestly think that for the first time in like... forever, this one will be really wide open. I know, i know, many said this many times in the last couple years but really, you can argue that every single one of Roger, Djokovic, Nadal, Murray, and Del Potro has a solid chance.

Nadal will be rested, and of course we know what a beast he is at the majors, Djokovic is probably the best hard court player at the moment, Roger won Wimbledon, and he's very consistent in the last 12 months.

And of course Del Potro, a guy that probably has a game that when he's on, it's really hard to come up with anything if you face him. I'm really looking forward to this tournament, and if Roger can't win it, i'd love to see a Del Potro-Murray final. :)

Federer in 2
08-05-2012, 05:49 PM
With Tsonga, Delpo and Berdych all ranked 5-8, at least three of the top 4 will have very tough QF matches, which is good.

Hope we see Federer vs Berdych, Nole/Murray vs Tsonga and Delpo vs Nadal.

Should be a great tournament, Djokovic is the favorite imo, but Federer will be motivated, Nadal will be back, Murray is making strides, Del Potro is back and Tsonga and Berdych can cause upsets. Plus some potential sleepers in the draw, should be great.

Yeah but we don't need another Tsonga-Djokovic :facepalm:

IOFH
08-05-2012, 05:51 PM
How quickly people forget.

Nadal is a horrible matchup for Roger anywhere outdoors. Murray is anyday a better deal for Rog. And actually, I think the way he lost today (the first two sets were pure annihilation) will fire him up next time he sees Murray across the net.

If you have to ask you haven't been a Fed fan long enough.

Anyway, I'm concerned with Nole's mentality this year. He seems like a bratty child compared to 2011. Hopefully he gets his act together and ends this year on a positive note.

I meant that Nadal could be rusty and unconfident and could also taken out before SF more likely than Murray.

Mark Lenders
08-05-2012, 05:54 PM
Yeah but we don't need another Tsonga-Djokovic :facepalm:

Their last GS match went down to the wire. Like Berdych, Tsonga can beat anyone when 'on' (actually more so, Berdych can't beat Nadal), I'm sure Nole will not want to face him.

Thinking of it again, I want:

Federer vs Tsonga

Nadal vs Del Potro



Djokovic vs Ferrer

Murray vs Berdych



Nole is my favorite top 4 player, so let him get Ferrer.

sexybeast
08-05-2012, 05:55 PM
Their last GS match went down to the wire. Like Berdych, Tsonga can beat anyone when 'on' (actually more so, Berdych can't beat Nadal), I'm sure Nole will not want to face him.

Thinking of it again, I want:

Federer vs Tsonga

Nadal vs Del Potro



Djokovic vs Ferrer

Murray vs Berdych



Nole is my favorite top 4 player, so let him get Ferrer.

Give Djoko Isner atleast so we can get 4 exciting matches.

sexybeast
08-05-2012, 05:56 PM
I think Haas might get to a QF or something with a good draw.

Also, I think Federer would rather have Nadal on his side of the draw than Murray. Whoever gets Murray between Djoko and Federer will have to battle out really hard on saturday, Nadal probably wont even get to SF and I think even if he gets there the courts might be too fast and low bouncing for him to cause problems to Federer.

Mark Lenders
08-05-2012, 05:58 PM
Give Djoko Isner atleast so we can get 4 exciting matches.

Yeah, this post was just about projected seedings, and the 5-8 seeds will almost surely be the Delpo, Tomas, Jo and Ferrer.

In that scenario, ideally someone with weapons would take out Ferrer and make it to the QF to face Nole so we could have four great QFs. Maybe a big server like Isner and Raonic or a young gun having his breakthrough tournament.

sexybeast
08-05-2012, 06:00 PM
Yeah, this post was just about projected seedings, and the 5-8 seeds will almost surely be the Delpo, Tomas, Jo and Ferrer.

In that scenario, ideally someone with weapons would take out Ferrer and make it to the QF to face Nole so we could have four great QFs. Maybe a big server like Isner and Raonic or a young gun having his breakthrough tournament.

Not Raonic or any other young gun, Isner is the only one who would cause Djokovic big trouble in Usopen.

Federer in 2
08-05-2012, 06:04 PM
Their last GS match went down to the wire. Like Berdych, Tsonga can beat anyone when 'on' (actually more so, Berdych can't beat Nadal), I'm sure Nole will not want to face him.

Thinking of it again, I want:

Federer vs Tsonga

Nadal vs Del Potro



Djokovic vs Ferrer

Murray vs Berdych



Nole is my favorite top 4 player, so let him get Ferrer.

My last prediction turned out to be GOAT-like, so I'll try again.

I want:

Federer - Kohlschreiber
Ferrer - Monaco

Del Potro - Almagro
Murray - Cilic

Nadal - Fish
Tsonga - Isner

Berdych - Tipsarevic
Djokovic - Simon

ServeVolley
08-05-2012, 06:05 PM
My (bold and hugely biased) predictions: Federer to win it without dropping a set. Murray, Djokovic, and Nadal to lose in QFs or earlier. Somebody semi-unknown to become a first-time slam finalist. :)

sexybeast
08-05-2012, 06:06 PM
My prediction is another Murray-Federer final if the draws allow it. 50-50 in the final.

Watch out for Del Potro, obviously.

IOFH
08-05-2012, 06:07 PM
My (bold and hugely biased) predictions: Federer to win it without dropping a set. Murray, Djokovic, and Nadal to lose in QFs or earlier. Somebody semi-unknown to become a first-time slam finalist. :)

That scenario is definitely good for tennis.

Mark Lenders
08-05-2012, 06:11 PM
Not Raonic or any other young gun, Isner is the only one who would cause Djokovic big trouble in Usopen.

I kind of agree with this. Shame Soderling isn't around; with Tsonga and Berdych finally consistent, we could potentially end up having a really strong top 8 (with Soderling instead of Ferrer), with no easy QFs for anyone. But oh well.

My last prediction turned out to be GOAT-like, so I'll try again.

I want:

Federer - Kohlschreiber
Ferrer - Monaco

Del Potro - Almagro
Murray - Cilic

Nadal - Fish
Tsonga - Isner

Berdych - Tipsarevic
Djokovic - Simon

:lol: NID that you'd want Federer to be with Ferrer.

It'd not be a bad draw overall by any means though, even though it's a bit too pro-Federer for my linking :p

masterclass
08-05-2012, 06:11 PM
Yeah, this post was just about projected seedings, and the 5-8 seeds will almost surely be the Delpo, Tomas, Jo and Ferrer.

In that scenario, ideally someone with weapons would take out Ferrer and make it to the QF to face Nole so we could have four great QFs. Maybe a big server like Isner and Raonic or a young gun having his breakthrough tournament.

The 8th position will be very interesting. Looking at the rankings, it seems that anyone from Almagro (defends 270 at Toronto/Cincinnati), Isner (d. 55), Monaco (d.55), Del Potro (d. 90), and Tipsarevic (d. 405) has a shot at it depending on their performances prior to the US Open.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Mark Lenders
08-05-2012, 06:16 PM
The 8th position will be very interesting. Looking at the rankings, it seems that anyone from Almagro (defends 270 at Toronto/Cincinnati), Isner (d. 55), Monaco (d.55), Del Potro (d. 90), and Tipsarevic (d. 405) has a shot at it depending on their performances prior to the US Open.

Respectfully,
masterclass

It will be Del Potro for sure. Not only is he #8 at the moment, he's also definitely improving on last year's performance in Toronto and Cincy. He's just in a totally different class compared to those other guys, he should and hopefully will be a top 8 seed.

Johnny Groove
08-05-2012, 06:24 PM
I'd like to see either Tsonga or Del Potro take the US Open title this year.

Mark Lenders
08-05-2012, 06:29 PM
I'd like to see either Tsonga or Del Potro take the US Open title this year.

Tsonga winning would be glorious for tennis.

Delpo too, but he has more time to do that. He's only 23 and by far the best player in the world under 25 years of age, he's bound to have many more chances in the future, not to mention he already has one.

If Jo wants to win a Slam, he needs to go on a run of crazy form soon.

masterclass
08-05-2012, 06:34 PM
Speaking of going on a crazy run, what the heck has happened to Mr. Berdych? It's like somebody forgot to wind him up before his matches lately? He really needs to get back on track. Does anyone know if he has been carrying any injury, or is it just a mental thing?

Respectfully,
masterclass

Johnny Groove
08-05-2012, 06:36 PM
David Ferrer winning the USO would change the game.

Isner winning would be good for the game.

Anyone who hasn't before, really. The more differing slam winners there are, the more kids emulate their games. Meaning more variety in the next generation.

Mark Lenders
08-05-2012, 06:37 PM
Speaking of going on a crazy run, what the heck has happened to Mr. Berdych? It's like somebody forgot to wind him up before his matches lately? He really needs to get back on track. Does anyone know if he has been carrying any injury, or is it just a mental thing?

Respectfully,
masterclass

Mental problems, he's always been like that. If only Tsonga and Berdych could fuse into one, we'd have a hell of a player.

Give Jo Berdych's backhand and ROS and you have a Slam winner for sure.

Give Berdych Tsonga's serve and mentality/fearlessness and you have a Slam winner.


As it stands though, Jo has the worst backhand and ROS in top level tennis and Berdych is a mental midget of sorts with big serving woes, so both are merely outside contenders at best; they can win against anyone when on fire but more often that not complete players will be able to expose their weaknesses.

masterclass
08-05-2012, 06:55 PM
By the way, congratulations and commendations to everybody for keeping this thread's discussion positive. This is the way to do it. Make your predictions, and don't bash other people for their opinions or the players they like. Of course one can disagree, but as long as it is done with respect it makes all the difference. Well done so far...and thank you. :worship: :cool:

Respectfully,
masterclass

IOFH
08-05-2012, 07:00 PM
QF: Federer-Ferrer, Nadal-Tsonga, Djokovic-DP, Murray-Isner

SF: Federer-Tsonga, Murray-Djokovic

F: Federer-Murray

W: Tennis

Mark Lenders
08-05-2012, 07:03 PM
QF: Federer-Ferrer, Nadal-Tsonga, Djokovic-DP, Murray-Isner

SF: Federer-Tsonga, Murray-Djokovic

F: Federer-Murray

W: Tennis

Tennis will never win with Federer and Ferrer drawn together. If you want Ferrer in the QF, at least draw him against one of the other top 4 seeds. Federer vs Ferrer is just :zzz: Probably the biggest mismatch in the Open Era between top 10 players, surely in recent years.

IOFH
08-05-2012, 07:05 PM
Tennis will never win with Federer and Ferrer drawn together. If you want Ferrer in the QF, at least draw him against one of the other top 4 seeds. Federer vs Ferrer is just :zzz: Probably the biggest mismatch in the Open Era between top 10 players, surely in recent years.

Tennis survives that match-up and then wins through the rest of the tournament :D

LastRocket
08-05-2012, 07:07 PM
Delpo will win the uso :)

Roamed
08-05-2012, 07:49 PM
I voted for Delpo :rocker:

It's already a good tournament as for the first time in three years it will be impossible for Fed to lose to Djokovic in the semis from MP up :worship:

TennisMilan
08-05-2012, 08:06 PM
I think Andy Murray has a chance, and I'd love to see him win a Slam. I think Federer could definitely do it too.

AntiTennis
08-05-2012, 08:11 PM
With Roger all the way :rocker2:

Roy Emerson
08-05-2012, 08:16 PM
I think Haas might get to a QF or something with a good draw.

Also, I think Federer would rather have Nadal on his side of the draw than Murray. Whoever gets Murray between Djoko and Federer will have to battle out really hard on saturday, Nadal probably wont even get to SF and I think even if he gets there the courts might be too fast and low bouncing for him to cause problems to Federer.

Agree, whoever gets Murray will end up playing a very long SF.

henke007
08-05-2012, 08:24 PM
I hope Roger rests up (skips Cincy too if he has to) and can come back strong at Flushing Meadows...He deserves another final there given the SF heartbreaks last two years. Hope to see u back On final sunday again Fed, lets win this :rocker2:

Agree on above :rocker:

rocketassist
08-05-2012, 08:26 PM
Tennis will never win with Federer and Ferrer drawn together. If you want Ferrer in the QF, at least draw him against one of the other top 4 seeds. Federer vs Ferrer is just :zzz: Probably the biggest mismatch in the Open Era between top 10 players, surely in recent years.

Nadal-Verdasco is even worse, as Nando actually had the weaponry and decent matchup (certainly off clay anyway) to be competitive whereas Federer-Ferrer should be one sided cause the first-strike game takes Ferrer out of the picture.

Johnny Groove
08-05-2012, 08:32 PM
QF:

Fed-Berdych
Nadal-Tsonga
Murray-Ferrer
Djokovic-Del Potro

SF:

Berdych-Tsonga
Ferrer-Delpo

F:

Tsonga-Del Potro

Tsonga gets it done.

Mark Lenders
08-05-2012, 08:47 PM
Nadal-Verdasco is even worse, as Nando actually had the weaponry and decent matchup (certainly off clay anyway) to be competitive whereas Federer-Ferrer should be one sided cause the first-strike game takes Ferrer out of the picture.

Verdasco at least played some good tennis a few times before inevitably choking in clutch moments, and he even won once. Not to mention that epic AO 2009 encounter.

Ferrer has won three sets in 13 matches against Federer and only forced one tiebreak: http://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=F401&oId=F324
It's just ridiculously one-sided, never seen anything like it between two players who were in the top 5.

Federer drawing Ferrer in USO would not be good for tennis, only good for Federer really, who'd probably get a free pass to the semis. If Ferrer makes the QF, let's hope he faces one of the other top 4 seeds: not that he has any chance of winning, but at least he will make the match competitive before choking.

dazed1
08-05-2012, 08:59 PM
Federer.

MuzzahLovah
08-05-2012, 09:02 PM
Bold prediction
http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m8apj46DcT1r7ljnmo1_1280.jpg

Moozza
08-05-2012, 09:30 PM
Really looking forward to this one as I think there are 5 genuine contenders with none of them really a stand out favourite. Djokovic and Federer will obviosly be the two favourites, Murray is in the form of his life and the gold medal could inspire him, Potro also had a great olympics on his worst surface and is a previous champion here and you can never count out Nadal. Then there is also Tsonga and Berdych, they probably don't have the consistency to win but they are of course capable of beating anyone on their day.

Mechlan
08-05-2012, 09:45 PM
If Murray and/or Del Potro can challenge for the title, that would be great. Confidence makes a big difference, so hope this Olympics run spurs both of them to greater heights.

dazed1
08-05-2012, 09:50 PM
25 voted for Nadal, that's just LOL!

Looner
08-05-2012, 09:52 PM
25 voted for Nadal, that's just LOL!

Well, Nadal made the USO 2009 semifinal and only lost to an on-fire Delboy who is a hard matchup for him on the surface and that was supposedly with another injury (which of course I don't buy but oh well). He is always a threat in BO5 if he doesn't meet someone who's able to annihilate him with a power game such as Rosol.

dazed1
08-05-2012, 10:02 PM
Yes, 2 years ago, but now in this situation, on USO he wont get pass SF max.

Sanya
08-05-2012, 10:24 PM
Del Potro - Murray would be great final or Roger - Del Potro too. :drool: But I fear Djodal once again. :scared:

masterclass
08-05-2012, 10:24 PM
What's wrong with the title? :sad:

We should not be promoting hate, obviously.

masterclass

MuzzahLovah
08-05-2012, 10:26 PM
I really want to see another muurray Porto match.

Aloevera
08-05-2012, 10:34 PM
Djokovic, Murray and Del Potro are clear contenders.

Federer has good chance of course, but... he needs help from fairly good draw and some fortune in later stages. :angel: :devil:

Nadal... he looks vulnerable, but maybe he can still dig deep there. I'm not convinced he will be in the final again.

Yeah, no new faces. So I pick all four OG semifinalists to win US Open.

xargon
08-05-2012, 11:14 PM
do hope someone worthy will win it (like Djokovic, Fed, or Del potro). The rest are bums

Djokovic, Nadal or Delpo

SheepleBuster
08-05-2012, 11:26 PM
Djokovic, Nadal or Delpo

Rafa won't be winning anything. Sorry

Andi-M
08-06-2012, 12:55 AM
It will be intersting.

I'll rank the favorites as so

1. Fed - Last GS winner, has great experience , world no 1, GOAT...

2. Nadal - why so high? Mastermind of uncle toni nadal has been gearing up for USO since 'Rosol'gate--- I DO believe there was an injury there but I DO believe it has been exaggerated and he is being extra cautious so he can be 100% for USO. Rafa always bounces back strongly from dissappointments.

3. Murray - He has become a man has performed exceptionally well at slams all year ( except maybe RG) great win in the Olympics the guy has the talent, and finally with Lendl the mental side of his game is coming together...he has a great chance if he can play like he did at Wimbledon (both tournies this year!)

4. Djokovic - Why so low? Seems to have dropped his intensity 10-15% and its making all the difference, not running for every ball not believing he can win evry point as he was in AO and all 2011, I think he's a little burn't out actually i noticed after his wimbledon SF how fine he was, i would have expected him to be a bit more gutted. I think he's an emotional mometum type of player he is on a bit of a low, but he could turn it around at any point...maybe USO is the inspiration he needs?

5. Del Potro is making some noise again..Good for him! Too early to say for sure whether he will be a real contender for USO...but he is one hell of a threat I dont want him anywhere near Murrays draw thanks...i'd rather take Tsonga/Ferrer or Berdych please. ( yes i know the H2H w/ Ferrer and Berdych are less favorable) ---but Del Potro is sort of an unkown quantity and slightly scares me!

rocketassist
08-06-2012, 12:58 AM
Del Potro - Murray would be great final or Roger - Del Potro too. :drool: But I fear Djodal once again. :scared:

There's a strong chance it won't be. First of all there's a 50-50 chance of Djodal being same half, and if not then neither are a lock in their semis or even their quarter if one of them has Del Potro in it.

Johnny Groove
08-06-2012, 01:11 AM
No, no, not time for Rafa. A R16/QF would be respectable. Get healthy, target the WTF and AO.

green25814
08-06-2012, 01:17 AM
Would really like a Murray/Pony final actually.

I also wouldn't write of Nadal. This is just the kind of situation he loves and is motivated by.

branimir_iliev
08-06-2012, 01:27 AM
It's nice to take a breather here from the flame wars in the other threads, lol.
Anyway, I think this is going to be the most interesting and wide open USO in a long while. It's pretty much up for grabs. Fed, Rafa, Novak, Murray, even dark horses like Delpo and Tsonga are in with a shot. Personally I'm rooting for Fed, but Murray and Delpo I think are strong candidates. Out of respect for Novak because he's defending champ and the other contenders should be (based on most recent form):
1. Djokovic
2. Murray
3. Federer
4. Del Potro
5. Nadal
6. Tsonga (or who else at 6?)

Mark Lenders
08-06-2012, 01:35 AM
There are basically 5 favorites, in two groups.

First tier - the big 3.

-Djokovic
-Federer
-Nadal

In this order, Djokovic has won the last three hardcourt Slams, Federer is #1 and Nadal is always Nadal.

Second group:

-Murray
-Del Potro

The two only other players in this era who have the potential to be multislam winners and who seem to be on the rise. I don't think Murray is any better than Del Potro, but I'll favor him over Juan because due to his seeding Juan will have to go through three top player players in all likelihood.

Then we have two players with outside shots:

-Tsonga
-Berdych

Both these players can beat anyone on their day, but on most days their weaknesses will be exploited by four of the players mentioned above and they will get brutally overpowered by Del Potro. If they go on a hot streak, they have chances though.

If anyone other than these seven is holding the trophy in the end, I will eat my hat. Seriously, I'll post a video of myself eating a hat :p

The odds would be something like:

Djokovic - 30%
Federer - 25%
Nadal - 20%
Murray - 13%
Del Potro - 10%
Tsonga - 1,5%
Berdych - 0,5%
Rest of the field - 0%

Topspindoctor
08-06-2012, 01:39 AM
My dream is that Nadal destroys Del Potro in SF and Olderer in F to silence all the Olderer fangirls like Sapeod and Corey_Failman who always construct "what if" scenarios. Plus I am sure Mark Lenders would be devastated to learn that his idol isn't the invincible god he envisions him to be, which would also please me greatly.

branimir_iliev
08-06-2012, 01:41 AM
There are basically 5 favorites, in two groups.

First tier - the big 3.

-Djokovic
-Federer
-Nadal

In this order, Djokovic has won the last three hardcourt Slams, Federer is #1 and Nadal is always Nadal.

Second group:

-Murray
-Del Potro

The two only other players in this era who have the potential to be multislam winners and who seem to be on the rise. I don't think Murray is any better than Del Potro, but I'll favor him over Juan because due to his seeding Juan will have to go through three top player players in all likelihood.

Then we have two players with outside shots:

-Tsonga
-Berdych

Both these players can beat anyone on their day, but on most days their weaknesses will be exploited by four of the players mentioned above and they will get brutally overpowered by Del Potro. If they go on a hot streak, they have chances though.

If anyone other than these seven is holding the trophy in the end, I will eat my hat. Seriously, I'll post a video of myself eating a hat :p

The odds would be something like:

Djokovic - 30%
Federer - 25%
Nadal - 20%
Murray - 13%
Del Potro - 10%
Tsonga - 1,5%
Berdych - 0,5%
Rest of the field - 0%

Agreed. But we might be underrating Murray (or maybe I'm overrating him:). But his most recent form saw him defeat Djokovic and Federer. Nadal may be rusty and Murray might actually dismiss Nadal in brutal fashion were they to meet on a fast court right now. Delpo is looking good too. In fact, Delpo might beat Nadal right now on a fast surface too..

Mark Lenders
08-06-2012, 01:55 AM
Agreed. But we might be underrating Murray (or maybe I'm overrating him:). But his most recent form saw him defeat Djokovic and Federer. Nadal may be rusty and Murray might actually dismiss Nadal in brutal fashion were they to meet on a fast court right now. Delpo is looking good too. In fact, Delpo might beat Nadal right now on a fast surface too..

I think we are rating him just right: the player with better odds outside of the dominating big 3. Until he actually wins one, we cannot favor him over players who have been sweeping Slam titles, can we?

I've learned over time to never write off Nadal. He has a knack to keep proving his haters wrong. He's definitely third favorite at worst; yes, he's been struggling and hardcourt isn't his favorite surface, but it's a Grand Slam and it's Nadal; there's no rational basis to argue that Delpo or Murray are bigger favorites.

My dream is that Nadal destroys Del Potro in SF and Olderer in F to silence all the Olderer fangirls like Sapeod and Corey_Failman who always construct "what if" scenarios. Plus I am sure Mark Lenders would be devastated to learn that his idol isn't the invincible god he envisions him to be, which would also please me greatly.

Yeah, all my posts point out to me believing that Del Potro is an invincible god :lol:

The Prince
08-06-2012, 02:16 AM
Murray is no less a favourite than anybody else. It's his tournament for the taking if he maintains his form, which I think he will.

Vulture the Toronto 1000, should be pretty simple if he at least shows up, even without his brain, for the first round or two.
Solid performance in the Cincy 1000, semis will do.

That would give him an ideal platform to try to win his first slam.

branimir_iliev
08-06-2012, 02:35 AM
I think we are rating him just right: the player with better odds outside of the dominating big 3. Until he actually wins one, we cannot favor him over players who have been sweeping Slam titles, can we?

I've learned over time to never write off Nadal. He has a knack to keep proving his haters wrong. He's definitely third favorite at worst; yes, he's been struggling and hardcourt isn't his favorite surface, but it's a Grand Slam and it's Nadal; there's no rational basis to argue that Delpo or Murray are bigger favorites.



Yeah, all my posts point out to me believing that Del Potro is an invincible god :lol:

No, I suppose not. As regards Nadal, I'm not writing his career off or anything, I was simply thinking along the lines that he might not be in slam-worthy form in time for USO. I mean he's not even in match form right now and he's going to be thrust into Cincy which is a fast hard court. A decent player might even get him in the early rounds, not to mention the more in-form top players in the later rounds of Cincy. I could be wrong though. He might come out on fire but it seems unlikely, he's had a long layoff from top-level competitive tennis and fast hard courts aren't the best place for him to get his groove back.

tripwires
08-06-2012, 04:13 AM
I don't wish to react in a knee-jerk manner, but Murray's win at the Olympics surely puts him in serious contention for the USO title. It's on hard, he just defeated the #1 and #2 for an important victory which would likely give him confidence in future meetings, and Nadal's form is questionable right now. In my opinion, the top 3 favourites for the title are Federer, Djokovic and Murray. This should be really exciting to watch. :D

leng jai
08-06-2012, 04:31 AM
Tommy Haas should be peaking for an injury at around USO time so to answer your question I think Fognini.

evilmindbulgaria
08-06-2012, 05:17 AM
It will depend a lot on the results from Toronto and Cincinnati. Let's see in what condition the big 4 will be at the start of the Open.

Federer might recover on time for Cincinnati, but Rafa will definitely not be in optimal form there. Murray, if he plays Toronto and Cincy, might be exhausted. Same goes for Nole. Del Potro's form is an enigma as usual.

This USOpen, at least on paper, looks the most exciting GS in terms of the number of people who can win it since, well, forever.

guga2120
08-06-2012, 06:15 AM
Novak will be the favorite, not like last year, but he is still the best hardcourt player until somebody proves otherwise.

Hopefully, its just not Federer winning.

DemiCrayanhan
08-06-2012, 07:04 AM
i dreamed a dream...


Federer - Isner
Nadal - DelPotro
Murray - Tsonga
Djokovic - Raonic


Federer - DelPotro
Murray - Djokovic

DelPotro - Murray

DelPotro

time for these two to step up. favorites aside, i'm getting tired of the same SF/F rounds.

masterclass
08-06-2012, 08:51 AM
i dreamed a dream...


Federer - Isner
Nadal - DelPotro
Murray - Tsonga
Djokovic - Raonic


Federer - DelPotro
Murray - Djokovic

DelPotro - Murray

DelPotro

time for these two to step up. favorites aside, i'm getting tired of the same SF/F rounds.

Interesting dream. As of now, I think it has a chance, just as many of the other posters scenarios do as well.

There is still some time to go yet with two masters to be played and who knows how the US Open draw will pan out.

Still, this has been an excellent first take discussion. I'll include my first take analysis, based on what we know now.

Assumptions:

1. I'm going to assume that the conditions will be faster this year at the US Open, perhaps to 2009 and earlier levels.

2. I'll assume that all top players will be relatively healthy and prepared to play. This may be erroneous, but since we just don't know, I'll make the positive assumption here. :)

3. I'll use the most recent form of the grass season as "current form". I realize this doesn't always translate to good hard court form, so I'll factor in the previous similar hard court form from earlier in the year, such as Dubai. I'll not place quite as a high a value on the slower hard court performances, such as Miami, or the Aussie Open.

4. Historical form/class - I look at the whole player's career on the surface/event to determine class form. I don't limit history to the past 2-3 years, but I do factor in the trend. If the player is nowhere near the level they were when they displayed that historical form, then I reduce it's importance. Example: Andy Roddick has won the US Open. But I don't think he is near the level he was, so though one can never completely discount a former winner at the event, I do not place as high a premium on Roddick's class, as Del Potro's. Opposite example: Obviously Federer. He won the event 5 straight times. He's returned to #1 in the world. I therefore give him an extremely high class factor, even though he had lesser results recently.

So with that, here is my first take:

1. Roger Federer - best class of all, best recent form winning Wimbledon, silver in Olympics, hard court form earlier in the year in similar conditions was excellent, winning in Rotterdam, Dubai and Indian Wells. I think he'll be difficult to beat. His likely #1 ranking also gives him an possible advantage in the draw. Top chances to beat him: Del Potro, Djokovic, Murray

2. Juan Martin Del Potro - good class, won in 2009. Current form, excellent in the Olympics, very good form earlier in the year in similar conditions. It looks like he is very close to being back at his 2009 level. His serve looked very good in his final matches at the Olympics and was hitting ground strokes with incredible pace and accuracy.

3. Andy Murray - Never won a major, so his class is below Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, Del Potro, and even others that have won. However, his recent excellent form on grass, especially in the Olympics, was superb. His earlier similar condition hard court performances were good this year. So though it's difficult to rate him above Novak Djokovic, I think Murray's trend is upward and he may be ready to take it to the next level.

4. Novak Djokovic - Class is excellent, he is the defending champion, with 5 SF or higher results in his last 5 years at the US Open. However, his most recent form in the grass season was somewhat disappointing. His play earlier in the year in similar hard court conditions was also not at the level of 2011. Now, if he were to win Cincinnati, I might change the order here, but currently this is where I see him. I feel the pressure of trying to equal or better his results of last year has taken a bit of an emotional toll on him. If he can somehow forget all that, and just relax and play his best tennis, I think he he'll do better, but we can't forget other players also want to do the same. It's very competitive now. If he can maintain his health and energy during this part of the season, I see him having a better end to the year than last year. Playing deep in the Olympics, followed immediately by Toronto, Cincinnati, and the US Open will be very challenging.

5. Rafael Nadal - good class at the event with a win in 2010 and final in 2011, however I think he has benefited at this event from kinder draws and slower conditions of last year. I think this is his worst major surface. His recent form, well, it was tough in the grass season, a surprise exit at Wimbledon, followed by a flare-up of his tendinitis and withdrawal since then. Even if he manages to be healthy by the US Open, his form could be suspect. His similar condition hard court performances earlier in the year were good but nothing special. That said, one can't discount him; he like the other 1 time winners at the event has a chance if he gets a good draw and things play out right. I simply can't favor him above the rest at the moment in these conditions.

Of the others, Tomáš Berdych has a disappointing historical record at this event, and he had a very disappointing grass season. He might surprise, but I think it unlikely at the moment.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has a lone QF result at the US Open, losing in straights to Federer. He had a fair grass season, but couldn't rise to the level needed. His earlier play on similar hard courts was good. I can't see him going beyond the QF.
I see John Isner and Milos Raonic has potential spoilers/upset candidates. At the moment, I still don't think they can go 7 rounds in a major. Though their service games are top-notch, their all around games are still too limited. Of the former winners, I think Lleyton Hewitt's game has been on the improve since his foot surgery. I would not be surprised to see him go deeper than he has in a long time - possibly to the QF. Andy Roddick looked like he had found a little something at Eastbourne, but disappointed in the big grass events. He could obviously upset, but I can't see him going all the way.

Ok, enough from me, long post again. :shrug: :)

Respectfully,
masterclass

masterclass
08-06-2012, 09:03 AM
I predict Federer will fall out early (no trolling). He needs more time to rest IMO.

So I'm eager to hear a positive prediction from you :)

Which players do you think have a better chance to take it? :cool:

Respectfully,
masterclass

Federer in 2
08-06-2012, 10:38 AM
First time ever that Murray is ahead of Nadal in the number of votes for a GS!

Looner
08-06-2012, 10:48 AM
Voted Muzzah. I don't think the old man will have quite enough left in the bag for the USO. I think he'll try to be rested for the indoor season. Muzzah can beat the current Djoker who is anything but his 2.0/2011 self.

Nadal I'm really unsure about. With Del Potro, it depends very much on the draw.

Bigselber
08-06-2012, 11:23 AM
I feel like Djokovic, Murray and Federer are tied as the favorites, Djokovic and Federer maybe just a notch over Murray. I really don't think Nadal will win this, the court dosen't suit him and the only time he won it was in 2010 when he was in extraordinary form. I doubt he'll be able to replicate that 2010 run, but of course you never know with him.

coluta
08-06-2012, 11:30 AM
As regards Nadal, I'm not writing his career off or anything, I was simply thinking along the lines that he might not be in slam-worthy form in time for USO. I mean he's not even in match form right now and he's going to be thrust into Cincy which is a fast hard court. A decent player might even get him in the early rounds, not to mention the more in-form top players in the later rounds of Cincy. I could be wrong though. He might come out on fire but it seems unlikely, he's had a long layoff from top-level competitive tennis and fast hard courts aren't the best place for him to get his groove back.

From today:

Recuperándome en Mallorca he notado lo bien que se vive aquí :)
http://desmond.yfrog.com/Himg860/scaled.php?tn=0&server=860&filename=7kqxp.jpg&xsize=640&ysize=640

samanosuke
08-06-2012, 02:18 PM
first time i would like to fed - nadal sf but like always spanish mafia will save him from embarrassing beatdown if he somehow flukes the semis. story of this h2h could be continued

Johnny Groove
08-06-2012, 03:12 PM
Rafa has no chance, I'm surprised he has any votes.

Del Potro-Tsonga final, baby.

luie
08-06-2012, 06:46 PM
Del- po.

guga2120
08-06-2012, 09:23 PM
first time i would like to fed - nadal sf

If Rafa made it that far on hardcourts his knees would be fine. Federer would go down, as always in 5 sets to his master.


First time ever that Murray is ahead of Nadal in the number of votes for a GS!

He should be, he will be right behind Federer as the third favorite to win. Considering his form and the court, he would like his chances against Federer and even Novak right now there.

Chase Visa
08-08-2012, 10:32 AM
My expectations:

R. Federer - query his ability to win 5-setters on hard courts. While his win at Wimbledon will help, he may still be reeling from his loss to Djokovic last year.
N. Djokovic - my favourite atm. A lot depends on Canada/Cincy, though. If he bombs out there and Fed or someone else looks hot there, maybe not.
R. Nadal - don't write him off. Yes, he won't be very match fit for the US Open, but it was a similar position last year, and he still made the final. If he gets an easy draw, which I suspect he will, then he's still a chance. Something special's gonna here.
A. Murray - don't overestimate him. In 2009 and 2010 he was in similar form, but yet he was upset by big hitters. Although the Olympics will give him confidence, he's far from a certainty.
D. Ferrer - I don't see him being able to avoid all of the Big 4. Maybe he can beat Nadal if he's still out of shape, but I don't see him beating any of the others.
J. Tsonga - not really a dangerous floater anymore, more of a QF-filler. However he can still beat anyone on his day, so maybe a hot patch can get him a Slam.
T. Berdych - he's bombed significantly really. Won't do much here.
J. Del Potro - looks to have confidence from the Olympics, but the fact he won't have a Top 4 seed or maybe not even a Top 8 seed will hurt. So will a probable grueling match on Super Saturday.
J. Isner - may cause an upset but won't win it.

Honestly
08-08-2012, 02:27 PM
It is now just 3 weeks to the start of the final major of the year, the US Open.

Some discussion points:

We should have a pretty good idea of the main contenders and possible spoilers from recent events. Toronto and Cincinnati are the big tournaments prior to the US Open and might help give us even a better idea, especially Cincinnati.

There were complaints from players last year because of the slowness of the US Open courts. Will the USTA react and put less sand in the usual paint resurfacing and speed things up? There have been rumors to that effect, but nobody will know for sure until players start practicing on it, qualifying begins, and the first matches are underway.

How well will the main contenders be prepared and with what confidence levels?
Will Rafael Nadal be able to get enough matches in to be a serious factor after his latest bout with tendinitis?
Will Roger Federer be buoyed by his Wimbledon win and his simultaneous leap back to #1 to give him the confidence to get back to the Open final?
Will Andy Murray's Olympic victory carry him to his first major win?
Will Novak Djokovic be able to regain his mojo on the hard courts to overcome the recent hot players and successfully defend his second major this year?
Will a healthy Juan Martin Del Potro be able to rekindle his glory at the scene of his lone major triumph after a positive Olympics campaign?
Do you see any others with a chance to get into the semifinals and advance, or whom do you see as spoilers for the top contenders?

Discuss at will, but please attempt to keep the discussion free of hate/insult/trolling/baiting type comments. I'll put up a poll.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Affirmative.

Honestly
08-08-2012, 02:29 PM
Del- po.

Certainly a danger man luie. Would love to see a final with him and Rog again.

masterclass
08-16-2012, 03:35 PM
US Open Main Draw: Thursday, August 23.

Perhaps we will be able to refine our predictions better then. ;)

Scratch Nadal from the poll please.

Respectfully,
masterclass

masterclass
08-21-2012, 02:59 PM
US Open Main Draw: Thursday, August 23.

Perhaps we will be able to refine our predictions better then. ;)

Scratch Nadal from the poll please.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Does anyone know the time of the main draw?

Respectfully,
masterclass

Lazyking
08-21-2012, 03:08 PM
Any live streams anywhere? I can watch on CBS sports network but would rather not considering all the extra stuff they're gonna put on.

Helevorn
08-21-2012, 03:12 PM
Murray.

TBkeeper
08-21-2012, 07:48 PM
Murray.... WON'T WIN IT

Let me fix it for ya

masterclass
08-21-2012, 07:58 PM
We just don't know which Murray will show up. Toronto was obviously not going to happen for him.
But Cincinnati? It's normally a good tournament for him. Some injury problems, eh? But it seems as if he was moving ok when losing to Chardy.

The big question is whether his stunning Olympic performance will set him on the path to greatness in the majors or not.
Only time will tell. The US Open is his first chance to show something extra.

Respectfully,
masterclass

asmazif
08-21-2012, 08:11 PM
bit shit for Cool Hand Luke that he just missed direct entry

Allez
08-21-2012, 08:11 PM
7 BO5 matches including the Stupid Saturday fiasco will prove too much for anyone over 30. Murray will step it up, but unless he faces Nole in the semis he is toast. Meeting him in the final will be disastrous.

Nole 40%
Murray 25%
Fed 15 %
Pony 10%
Tsonga 5%
Berdych 5%

dazed1
08-21-2012, 08:23 PM
And how do you know Fed will play every match in 5 sets?

Sanya
08-21-2012, 08:49 PM
Too much hype about that Saturday really. Winning match 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 and playing next day looks casual thing for any player to me, for body. Agree with dazed1, tough semis aren`t in the bag and depend on players.

GOATsol
08-21-2012, 08:53 PM
Hopefully Roger.

I would also like to see Del Potro win or make the semis or finals, but he probably won't considering his new wrist problems.

ServeVolley
08-21-2012, 09:30 PM
7 BO5 matches including the Stupid Saturday fiasco will prove too much for anyone over 30. Murray will step it up, but unless he faces Nole in the semis he is toast. Meeting him in the final will be disastrous.

Nole 40%
Murray 25%
Fed 15 %
Pony 10%
Tsonga 5%
Berdych 5%

Murray 10% higher chances than Federer? O_o

Looner
08-21-2012, 09:34 PM
Too much hype about that Saturday really. Winning match 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 and playing next day looks casual thing for any player to me, for body. Agree with dazed1, tough semis aren`t in the bag and depend on players.

We're just keeping it real. If RF has a tough night match and then has to come out less than 24 hours later for another tough one, it's not going to be easy. Plus giving false hope to Noletards is always oh so enjoyable when Roger beats him :drool:.

Moozza
08-21-2012, 09:38 PM
Murray 10% higher chances than Federer? O_o

Stupid Saturday.

Serverer
08-21-2012, 09:46 PM
Roger doesnt lose to clowns like Cilic or Wawrinka.

Sanya
08-21-2012, 09:47 PM
We're just keeping it real. If RF has a tough night match and then has to come out less than 24 hours later for another tough one, it's not going to be easy. Plus giving false hope to Noletards is always oh so enjoyable when Roger beats him :drool:.

It`s not going to be easy to anyone. :shrug: Actually I think that for Fed it isn`t the worst scenario among tops. Sure, for Nole it would be easier to recover that for Rogie, but only for him. Murray as Fed wouldn`t flutter either. About Tsonga or Del Potro I`m not even going to start speaking.

Fed is 31, but his resilience still surprises me. I understand that his fitness against Murray has a lot with all these worries, but too much, IMO. Actually I believe that Fed was sooner emotionally empty than phisically at OG.

Federer in 2
08-21-2012, 09:54 PM
If Federer has an easy 3 setter against Ferrer/Del Potro/Tsonga in the semi, then super Saturday is not a factor.

Looner
08-21-2012, 10:03 PM
It`s not going to be easy to anyone. :shrug: Actually I think that for Fed it isn`t the worst scenario among tops. Sure, for Nole it would be easier to recover that for Rogie, but only for him. Murray as Fed wouldn`t flutter either. About Tsonga or Del Potro I`m not even going to start speaking.

Fed is 31, but his resilience still surprises me. I understand that his fitness against Murray has a lot with all these worries, but too much, IMO. Actually I believe that Fed was sooner emotionally empty than phisically at OG.

It's not about fitness, it's about recovery. Even in 2009 he struggled against Delpo as he played SF and F back-to-back. He is fit but needs time to be well prepared. Stupid Saturday precludes him from that. I am not saying he'll lose but he'll need to play really well to win and he'll have to do it relatively quickly.

A few Monaco-like matches like last year's would help :drool:.

rocketassist
08-21-2012, 11:10 PM
Whichever of Feddy and Novakito has Ferrer in their half

Looner
08-21-2012, 11:17 PM
Not sure if it has been posted yet but the draw takes place at 12 pm local time and will be live-streamed on USO's website.

EDIT: On Thursday.

EliSter
08-21-2012, 11:19 PM
Becoming Fed fan if he draws Mugray.

rocketassist
08-21-2012, 11:40 PM
Becoming Fed fan if he draws Mugray.

Taking Super Saturday into account and the powers of recovery, I'm not surprised Djokotards would prefer a baked Fed to Murray the next day.

Looner
08-21-2012, 11:45 PM
Taking Super Saturday into account and the powers of recovery, I'm not surprised Djokotards would prefer a baked Fed to Murray the next day.

I can only imagine how hard I'll laugh if Fed were to lose to Murray and then Delpo dispatches Djoko :haha:.

Moozza
08-21-2012, 11:47 PM
Becoming Fed fan if he draws Mugray.

That is not a good idea.

rocketassist
08-21-2012, 11:47 PM
I can only imagine how hard I'll laugh if Fed were to lose to Murray and then Delpo dispatches Djoko :haha:.

:lol:

I find it impossible to talk tennis with most Nole tards cause they're following the player and not the sport i.e. they have as much of a clue about it as me arl nan (who's 101 and thinks I'm an intruder whenever I see her)

Looner
08-21-2012, 11:51 PM
:lol:. Indeed.

I would love to see Del Po Muzzah USO final if Roger has to lose along the way though. It'd be epic. Delpo going for the prove-all-the-flukers/doubters-wrong Slam whilst Muzzah will be aiming for that elusive slam victory and equalling Lendl's initial 1-4 record in GS finals :lol:.

Radar
08-21-2012, 11:55 PM
If Federer has an easy 3 setter against Ferrer/Del Potro/Tsonga in the semi, then super Saturday is not a factor.

Yes.

Ugh I dread the super saturday -.- It better not fuck up Roger's chances.
If he can get a quick & easy 3 setter SF then I would feel much more confident for the final!

That's providing he gets through to the semis, ofc.

Anyway, waits for the draw http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v232/korn0818/075ee6d1.gif I am excited.

EliSter
08-22-2012, 12:25 AM
So much wishfull thinking and delusion in this last page :haha:

EliSter
08-22-2012, 12:29 AM
Taking Super Saturday into account and the powers of recovery, I'm not surprised Djokotards would prefer a baked Fed to Murray the next day.

Does it matter really? Like Federer would be tested against Murray in some 5 hours match.As for Novak it wont matter if he has Murray and plays 5 hours, he did it at AO he can do it again.

And to be honest for once i would like to see Mugray baking Olderer in slam. But as u know that too, its fat chance.

Cereal Killer
08-22-2012, 01:00 AM
:lol:. Indeed.

I would love to see Del Po Muzzah USO final if Roger has to lose along the way though. It'd be epic. Delpo going for the prove-all-the-flukers/doubters-wrong Slam whilst Muzzah will be aiming for that elusive slam victory and equalling Lendl's initial 1-4 record in GS finals :lol:.

He would be aiming for history either way. 0-5 would also be a record. :lol:

HDW
08-22-2012, 01:31 AM
I can only imagine how hard I'll laugh if Fed were to lose to Murray and then Delpo dispatches Djoko :haha:.

Dream! Would love that to happen haha. :D

Mark Lenders
08-22-2012, 02:50 AM
:lol:. Indeed.

I would love to see Del Po Muzzah USO final if Roger has to lose along the way though. It'd be epic. Delpo going for the prove-all-the-flukers/doubters-wrong Slam whilst Muzzah will be aiming for that elusive slam victory and equalling Lendl's initial 1-4 record in GS finals :lol:.

Don't be so mean man, certain Murray fans would be on suicide watch if that were to happen :lol:

I mean, if Delpo is playing well enough to reach the final (having to beat Federer and/or Djokovic along the way), chances are he will not lose to Murray there. If even Federer couldn't stop him when he was at that level, I'd definitely not put my money on Murray. If JMDP is in the final against someone other than Federer or Nole, it's a safe bet that he will win.

Mark Lenders
08-22-2012, 03:00 AM
Whichever of Feddy and Novakito has Ferrer in their half

This is unfortunately the most like scenario :o Ferrer ruining tennis as always.

Why oh why can't they just use some common sense and bump Tsonga or Delpo to #4 seed and balance out the draw.

Jo has two wins over the top 2 seeds, one over Fed and one over Nole, at Slams. That's two more wins than Murray and Ferrer combined (a big fat 0). He actually deserves a top 4 seed as he's capable to beat anyone in the draw including Fed and Nole at Slams, as shown in the past.

Ferrer #4 is beyond a joke and ruins the balance of the draw completely. Not only has he got not chance to beat Federer/Nole, his chances of winning even a set are something around 5% if he even gets that far.

Chirag
08-22-2012, 03:01 AM
I really want to see the raw first :) I really like Feds chances of reaching the final here

Chirag
08-22-2012, 03:02 AM
This is unfortunately the most like scenario :o Ferrer ruining tennis as always.

Why oh why can't they just use some common sense and bump Tsonga or Delpo to #4 seed and balance out the draw.

Jo has two wins over the top 2 seeds, one over Fed and one over Nole, at Slams. That's two more wins than Murray and Ferrer combined (a big fat 0). He actually deserves a top 4 seed as he's capable to beat anyone in the draw including Fed and Nole at Slams, as shown in the past.

Ferrer #4 is beyond a joke and ruins the balance of the draw completely. Not only has he got not chance to beat Federer/Nole, his chances of winning even a set are something around 5% if he even gets that far.

They never change the seedings for this ,why should they penalize Ferrer for doing better than those 2 mentioned names

Mark Lenders
08-22-2012, 03:08 AM
They never change the seedings for this ,why should they penalize Ferrer for doing better than those 2 mentioned names

Because he is not a threat. Just look at the bookies odds to realize how much of a joke it is Ferrer is the #4 seed.

If the seedings hold up, whoever of Fed/Nole faces Ferrer in the semis is probaly winning the tournament.

Chirag
08-22-2012, 03:16 AM
Because he is not a threat. Just look at the bookies odds to realize how much of a joke it is Ferrer is the #4 seed.

If the seedings hold up, whoever of Fed/Nole faces Ferrer in the semis is probaly winning the tournament.

but he has performed better than Tsonga or Delpo this year :shrug: And he gave Murray a lot of fight this wimbledon ,beat him in the French and was the only player to straight set peak Nole last year

Mark Lenders
08-22-2012, 03:25 AM
but he has performed better than Tsonga or Delpo this year :shrug: And he gave Murray a lot of fight this wimbledon ,beat him in the French and was the only player to straight set peak Nole last year

But what has he ever done against the top 2 seeds in a Slam? That's right, nothing, not even a set. Murray hasn't done much either, but in his case there's at least some reason to believe that might change any time, in Ferrer's there is none.

Put this this way, which of these two looks like a more fair/balanced SF lineup: Federer vs Ferrer and Djokovic vs Murray OR Federer vs Del Potro/Tsonga and Djokovic vs Murray.

I know seedings are determined according to the current ranking, but in this case it is clearly creating a very unbalanced draw.

rickcastle
08-22-2012, 03:28 AM
Want to win: 1st choice: Federer / 2nd choice: Del Potro
Think will win: 1st choice: Djokovic / 2nd choice: Federer

tripwires
08-22-2012, 03:33 AM
Look, Ferrer will be seeded #4 and that's not going to change, no matter how much you dislike him. How is it his problem that Del Potro and Tsonga haven't done enough to get themselves ranked higher than Ferrer? In any case, he might lose before the SF anyway, so save the bitching for when he reaches the SF.

BroTree123
08-22-2012, 03:37 AM
Three words:

1. Suck
2. It
3. Lenders.

Mark Lenders
08-22-2012, 03:44 AM
Look, Ferrer will be seeded #4 and that's not going to change, no matter how much you dislike him. How is it his problem that Del Potro and Tsonga haven't done enough to get themselves ranked higher than Ferrer? In any case, he might lose before the SF anyway, so save the bitching for when he reaches the SF.

Hope you don't change your mind if/when he's drawn against Djokovic, makes it to the semis and does the same he did against Nadal this year in FO (folding meekly in quick 3 sets winning only a couple of games), while Federer then plays the night match on Super Saturday against serious opposition and then even if he wins is a sitting duck against Nole in the final.

Slade
08-22-2012, 04:06 AM
:facepalm:

rickcastle
08-22-2012, 04:09 AM
Hope you don't change your mind if/when he's drawn against Djokovic, makes it to the semis and does the same he did against Nadal this year in FO (folding meekly in quick 3 sets winning only a couple of games), while Federer then plays the night match on Super Saturday against serious opposition and then even if he wins is a sitting duck against Nole in the final.

But even if that happens, how does it change the fact that Ferrer earned the right to his top 4 seeding by earning more points than those below him? And don't give me that vulture crap, he has earned more points than both Tsonga and Del Potro in grandslams this year and even if he keeps playing smaller tournaments to earn points - it's his time and his body that he's using to get those points so why does it matter? And don't talk as if Del Potro and Tsonga are regularly schooling the Big 3 when it comes to slams.

I like Del Potro, he's the guy I want to win USO if Federer doesn't take it, but your Ferrer hate is so ridiculous. Do you not even see how ridiculous you are being?

Mark Lenders
08-22-2012, 04:50 AM
But even if that happens, how does it change the fact that Ferrer earned the right to his top 4 seeding by earning more points than those below him? And don't give me that vulture crap, he has earned more points than both Tsonga and Del Potro in grandslams this year and even if he keeps playing smaller tournaments to earn points - it's his time and his body that he's using to get those points so why does it matter? And don't talk as if Del Potro and Tsonga are regularly schooling the Big 3 when it comes to slams.

I like Del Potro, he's the guy I want to win USO if Federer doesn't take it, but your Ferrer hate is so ridiculous. Do you not even see how ridiculous you are being?

They aren't, which is why I am arguing they deserve the #4 seed. If they regularly schooling the top 3, they'd logically be in the top 3. There's a reason those 3 have won 29 of the last 30 Slams: they rarely lose to other players.

And while Delpo and Jo have not been schooling the top 3, they have certainly been doing a much better job in that regard than Murray and Ferrer: Delpo beat Federer in the USO final and Jo beat beat both Federer and Djokovic at Slams, in stark contrast with Murray and Ferrer's combined 0 wins and 3 sets won (all by Murray) against the top 2 USO seeds at Slams. And while there's reason to believe Murray might change this, there's no reason to believe Ferrer will be anything other than a walking bye in a Slam semi against Federer or Djokovic.

And I'm not questioning that Ferrer earned the right to be #4 seed, only if it is good for tennis/beneficial for the tournament's competitiveness, which it clearly isn't as it means grossly unbalanced halves of the draw and a potential unsuspenseful blowout in the semifinals.

Topspindoctor
08-22-2012, 05:22 AM
Yes.

Ugh I dread the super saturday -.- It better not fuck up Roger's chances.
If he can get a quick & easy 3 setter SF then I would feel much more confident for the final!

That's providing he gets through to the semis,

A W/O would be even better, can't have Olderer too tired for the big final, I mean look what happened at the OG this year...

BroTree123
08-22-2012, 05:29 AM
Vamos Donald!!!!

With Nadal injured and out, this title is yours to lose!!!! :rocker2: :rocker2:

masterclass
08-22-2012, 05:35 AM
Not sure if it has been posted yet but the draw takes place at 12 pm local time and will be live-streamed on USO's website.

EDIT: On Thursday.

Thanks so much Looner! I had been looking for that.

Respectfully,
masterclass

masterclass
08-22-2012, 05:40 AM
This is unfortunately the most like scenario :o Ferrer ruining tennis as always.

Why oh why can't they just use some common sense and bump Tsonga or Delpo to #4 seed and balance out the draw.

Jo has two wins over the top 2 seeds, one over Fed and one over Nole, at Slams. That's two more wins than Murray and Ferrer combined (a big fat 0). He actually deserves a top 4 seed as he's capable to beat anyone in the draw including Fed and Nole at Slams, as shown in the past.

Ferrer #4 is beyond a joke and ruins the balance of the draw completely. Not only has he got not chance to beat Federer/Nole, his chances of winning even a set are something around 5% if he even gets that far.

Don't worry, be happy Mr. Lenders. If Mr. Ferrer doesn't "deserve" his seeding, he'll be knocked out by one of those players prior to the semifinals. :)

Respectfully,
masterclass

Cereal Killer
08-22-2012, 05:41 AM
They aren't, which is why I am arguing they deserve the #4 seed. If they regularly schooling the top 3, they'd logically be in the top 3. There's a reason those 3 have won 29 of the last 30 Slams: they rarely lose to other players.

And while Delpo and Jo have not been schooling the top 3, they have certainly been doing a much better job in that regard than Murray and Ferrer: Delpo beat Federer in the USO final and Jo beat beat both Federer and Djokovic at Slams, in stark contrast with Murray and Ferrer's combined 0 wins and 3 sets won (all by Murray) against the top 2 USO seeds at Slams. And while there's reason to believe Murray might change this, there's no reason to believe Ferrer will be anything other than a walking bye in a Slam semi against Federer or Djokovic.

And I'm not questioning that Ferrer earned the right to be #4 seed, only if it is good for tennis/beneficial for the tournament's competitiveness, which it clearly isn't as it means grossly unbalanced halves of the draw and a potential unsuspenseful blowout in the semifinals.

Murray and del Potro have both won 2 matches against the top 3 in slams. The only difference is that del Potro won the title, by winning one of those matches.

Ferrer outperformed del Potro in every single slam this year. Tsonga didn'tput up much of a fight against Murray in the semis of Wimbledon (just like last year vs Djokovic). Ferrer played a much better match in the QFs. He also reached the QFs in Australia and the semis at the French. What exactly have Tsonga and del Potro done this year that would justify a higher seeding position? It's not like Ferrer is only 3 points ahead. He has over 1000 points more than those guys in the race and even more in the official rankings that reflect the last 12 months. Your arguments are ridiculous. Even if you take last year's USO performance into account Ferrer outperformed del Potro then too. What does it matter if those two guys are a potential threat to the top 3 if they don't get to them?

Topspindoctor
08-22-2012, 05:42 AM
Hope Del Bashtro draws Ferrer or Drugsquet in USO and gets schooled... would love to read Mark Lenders' excuses.

Allez
08-22-2012, 05:46 AM
Gasquet :shrug: He is schooling no one that one.

Mark Lenders
08-22-2012, 05:50 AM
Murray and del Potro have both won 2 matches against the top 3 in slams. So, therefore it's equal. The only difference is that del Potro won the title, by winning one of those matches. And Ferrer outperformed del Potro in every single slam this year. Tsonga didn't actually put on much of a fight against Murray in the semis of Wimbledon (just like last year vs Djokovic). Ferrer actually played a much better match in the QFs. He also reached the QFs in Australia and the semis at the French. What exactly have Tsonga and del Potro done this year that would justify a higher seeding position? It's not like Ferrer is only 3 points ahead. He has over 1000 points more than those guys in the race and even more in the official rankings that reflect the last 12 months. Your arguments are ridiculous. Even if you take last year into account Ferrer actually reached R4 while del Potro lost hi9s R3 match. What does it matter if he is a threat to the top 3 if he doesn't even get to them?

Eh what? Nadal is not participating in this US Open, hence why I didn't include victories against him. Murray and Ferrer have no Slams wins against Federer and Djokovic (the top 2 seeds), unlike Tsonga and Delpo. I have no problem with Murray as a top 4 seed, as he is a threat to win although he hasn't won yet. Ferrer simply isn't.

And Tsonga lost in 5 to Novak after having MPs in the only Slam match he played this year against one of the top 2/3, he didn't go down without a fight that's for sure, unlike Ferrer who got routined by Djokovic in Australia (I won't even talk about his embarrassing FO 'effort' against Nadal).

And for like the upteenth time, I'm not questioning the rankings, just whether or not Ferrer as the #4 seed is beneficial for the tournament, and it clearly is not. If you like unbalanced draws, unsuspenseful blowouts in Slam SF matches and a potential blowout in the final too (due to whoever gets Murray in their half having a far more competitive/tiresome semifinal), then be my guest. I for one don't like any of these things.

I suppose you enjoyed Ferrer's great effort against Nadal in the FO semis this year, definitely something we want to see again in a Slam semifinal, even more so with the Super Saturday format.

Cereal Killer
08-22-2012, 05:58 AM
The draw will be unbalanced either way. Tsonga and del Potro won't change that. And del Potro's win was 3 years ago. Get over it. Otherwise we would have to assume that Roddick and Hewitt are top 4 seed material, because they beat those guys in the past. Fact is, del Potro has only beaten Djokovic this year, in a loser BO3 match. He lost 6 consecutive times to Federer. And Tsonga hasn't beaten any of them. Ferrer beat Murray to reach his semi. Tsonga beat Kohlschreiber.

tripwires
08-22-2012, 06:36 AM
Eh what? Nadal is not participating in this US Open, hence why I didn't include victories against him. Murray and Ferrer have no Slams wins against Federer and Djokovic (the top 2 seeds), unlike Tsonga and Delpo. I have no problem with Murray as a top 4 seed, as he is a threat to win although he hasn't won yet. Ferrer simply isn't.



But you had no problem including Ferrer's loss at the French to Nadal to buttress your argument against him.

Well done.

rickcastle
08-22-2012, 06:41 AM
They aren't, which is why I am arguing they deserve the #4 seed. If they regularly schooling the top 3, they'd logically be in the top 3. There's a reason those 3 have won 29 of the last 30 Slams: they rarely lose to other players.

And while Delpo and Jo have not been schooling the top 3, they have certainly been doing a much better job in that regard than Murray and Ferrer: Delpo beat Federer in the USO final and Jo beat beat both Federer and Djokovic at Slams, in stark contrast with Murray and Ferrer's combined 0 wins and 3 sets won (all by Murray) against the top 2 USO seeds at Slams. And while there's reason to believe Murray might change this, there's no reason to believe Ferrer will be anything other than a walking bye in a Slam semi against Federer or Djokovic.

And I'm not questioning that Ferrer earned the right to be #4 seed, only if it is good for tennis/beneficial for the tournament's competitiveness, which it clearly isn't as it means grossly unbalanced halves of the draw and a potential unsuspenseful blowout in the semifinals.

No, but you act that they deserve to be fourth seeded because they can do more damage and give more proper competition to the slams more than Ferrer can. And who is the competition at slams? Who has won all but one of the slams since 2004? Against whom will you have to do your damage in order to be relevant? It's the Big 3. And Del Potro and Tsonga have not been able to do that damage this year at all, any more than Ferrer has. So why in the world should they be ranked above Ferrer?

Del Potro beat Federer 3 years ago. Before a career threatening wrist injury. That's hardly relevant today. He has lost to Federer six times this year. I can't claim that Roddick can win this USO again this year just because he was able to do it in the distant past. This year is what's relevant to what's going to go down in the USO. Del Potro and Tsonga have done nothing to prove that they can do damage against the Big Guns any more than Ferrer has.

masterclass
08-22-2012, 08:46 AM
Enough of this 4th seed debate. Back to the potential winners...

Will Roger Federer set another huge Open Era slam record by winning his 6th US Open?

Will Novak Djokovic return to his 2011 superman form and win his second consecutive US Open?

Will Juan Martin Del Potro put aside the wrist and knee injuries to reclaim the US Open throne?

Will Andy Murray channel his prestigious Olympic Gold into a US Open winner's trophy?

Will an American finally man up to win the first US Open Title in 9 years?

Will a Frenchman make the crossing to take their first US Open title since they gave the US the Statue of Liberty (kidding, Henri Cochet won in 1928 and Rene LaCoste in 1926-27)?

Will any Spaniard not named Nadal or Santana, be able to win off the dirt and lift the US Open title? Edit: (Orantes won on green clay)

Will an old or new Aussie legend have what it takes to gut out a US Open victory?

Respectfully,
masterclass

cutesteve22
08-22-2012, 08:50 AM
Roger or Nole 2.0

Sanya
08-22-2012, 08:59 AM
Gasquet :shrug: He is schooling on one that one.

It`s a secret, shhh. :o;)

masterclass
08-22-2012, 09:05 AM
Enough of this 4th seed debate. Back to the potential winners...

Will Roger Federer set another huge Open Era slam record by winning his 6th US Open?

Will Novak Djokovic return to his 2011 superman form and win his second consecutive US Open?

Will Juan Martin Del Potro put aside the wrist and knee injuries to reclaim the US Open throne?

Will Andy Murray channel his prestigious Olympic Gold into a US Open winner's trophy?

Will an American finally man up to win the first US Open Title in 9 years?

Will a Frenchman make the crossing to take their first US Open title since they gave the US the Statue of Liberty (kidding, Henri Cochet won in 1928 and Rene LaCoste in 1926-27)?

Will any Spaniard not named Nadal or Santana, be able to win off the dirt and lift the US Open title? Edit: (Orantes won on green clay)

Will an old or new Aussie legend have what it takes to gut out a US Open victory?

Respectfully,
masterclass

Lleyton Hewitt's guts in Bernard Tomic's body... ;)

Respectfully,
masterclass

Cereal Killer
08-22-2012, 09:14 AM
I hope Andy wins, but I think Roger will.

Roy Emerson
08-22-2012, 12:24 PM
Whoever draws Ferrer will have an advantage.

Imagine Murray and Del Potro end up in the same half.

Corey Feldman
08-22-2012, 12:27 PM
Roger JesusGod

watch Nole get his usual luck and draw Ferrer in his half

Mark Lenders
08-22-2012, 03:38 PM
No, but you act that they deserve to be fourth seeded because they can do more damage and give more proper competition to the slams more than Ferrer can. And who is the competition at slams? Who has won all but one of the slams since 2004? Against whom will you have to do your damage in order to be relevant? It's the Big 3. And Del Potro and Tsonga have not been able to do that damage this year at all, any more than Ferrer has. So why in the world should they be ranked above Ferrer?

Del Potro beat Federer 3 years ago. Before a career threatening wrist injury. That's hardly relevant today. He has lost to Federer six times this year. I can't claim that Roddick can win this USO again this year just because he was able to do it in the distant past. This year is what's relevant to what's going to go down in the USO. Del Potro and Tsonga have done nothing to prove that they can do damage against the Big Guns any more than Ferrer has.

They haven't? Didn't both of them take Federer and Djokovic to 5 sets at the French Open this year, with Tsonga even having match points agaisnt Nole. That is definitely sterner opposition than Ferrer has offered the Big 3, even if we're only counting this year alone (if we look a bit further back, things look even better).

Are you seriously arguing Tsonga and Delpo have done nothing to be considered more dangerous forces at Slams than Ferrer? Come on, let's be serious here for a moment :rolleyes: You're a Federer fan, right? You can't possibly tell me that it'd be the same to face say Delpo in SF as facing Ferrer, can you? And what's Roddick got to do with this - he has won the USO before but he has been in steep decline for a while (Del Potro, on the hand, has been slowly returning to his pre injury heights); although there's still a better chance (although very, very slim) of Roddick somehow rewinding the clock and pulling an Ivanisevic than Ferrer winning the tournament, as the latter never had the ability to do so.

I'm not the only one who believes this by the way. Just check any betting site and look at who they have as fourth and fifth favorite for the Open and the odds given to Ferrer. It's no big revelation that Tsonga and Del Potro are better players and more dangerous at Slams than Ferrer, but I have a feeling people on this thread already know that and are only arguing otherwise for the sake of being contrarian :lol:

IOFH
08-22-2012, 03:49 PM
I'm not the only one who believes this by the way. Just check any betting site and look at who they have as fourth and fifth favorite for the Open and the odds given to Ferrer. It's no big revelation that Tsonga and Del Potro are better players and more dangerous at Slams than Ferrer, but I have a feeling people on this thread already know that and are only arguing otherwise for the sake of being contrarian :lol:

At USO they are bigger threats, doesn't mean they should be ranked over Ferrer. He has earned the privilege of being seeded #4 by getting more points than those two over 52 weeks, if Jo or DP want to avoid the top 3 before the semis I suggest they start winning more matches/tournaments.

Mark Lenders
08-22-2012, 03:58 PM
At USO they are bigger threats, doesn't mean they should be ranked over Ferrer. He has earned the privilege of being seeded #4 by getting more points than those two over 52 weeks, if Jo or DP want to avoid the top 3 before the semis I suggest they start winning more matches/tournaments.

Not only at the USO. They are bigger threats than Ferrer in any Slam tournament, except Tsonga at the French Open (and even then he probably did better there vs Nole this year than Ferrer ever will against a top player in this tournament). Ferrer is just not a threat at all to the elite; he reached 3 Slam semis in his long career and folded meekly in each of then even when he was lucky enough to get Murray (and not one of the Big 3) there.

I hope they avoid the top 3 anyway, I'm hoping Tsonga draws Ferrer and Del Potro draws Murray

rocketassist
08-22-2012, 04:01 PM
Not only at the USO. They are bigger threats than Ferrer in any Slam tournament, except Tsonga at the French Open (and even then he probably did better there vs Nole this year than Ferrer ever will against a top player in this tournament). Ferrer is just not a threat at all to the elite; he reached 3 Slam semis in his long career and folded meekly in each of then even when he was lucky enough to get Murray (and not one of the Big 3) there.

I hope they avoid the top 3 anyway, I'm hoping Tsonga draws Ferrer and Del Potro draws Murray

Depending on if the USO 2011 slow court 'mistake' has been rectified, either of them would love to face Ferrer and I think Del Potro might want a Federer SF either way as it will make Super Saturday less physical than a Djoker or Murray contest might become.

hipolymer
08-22-2012, 04:05 PM
Depending on if the USO 2011 slow court 'mistake' has been rectified, either of them would love to face Ferrer and I think Del Potro might want a Federer SF either way as it will make Super Saturday less physical than a Djoker or Murray contest might become.

what if he gets a Murray quarterfinal, then a Federer semifinal, and then a Djokovic final? ahh, that would be sweet :drool:

rocketassist
08-22-2012, 04:09 PM
what if he gets a Murray quarterfinal, then a Federer semifinal, and then a Djokovic final? ahh, that would be sweet :drool:

Such is his physical deficiencies he needs a short and sweet one in there. Super Saturday really doesn't agree with him, but three years ago he did belt Nadull on the backside quickly enough to be fresh for the final.

I was impressed with his change ups at the Olympics (going for lines more and trying to use the net) and he looked a lot less metronomic/robotic. If he gets Ferrer's quarter he'll be there in the semis, he's less likely to fuck up than Tsonga, or an out of form Berdych.

Mark Lenders
08-22-2012, 04:11 PM
Depending on if the USO 2011 slow court 'mistake' has been rectified, either of them would love to face Ferrer and I think Del Potro might want a Federer SF either way as it will make Super Saturday less physical than a Djoker or Murray contest might become.

Indeed. I hope it's Tsonga getting Ferrer; I'd love to see him get another chance in the semis of a Slam. For Del Potro, winning another Slam is only contingent on whether his body allows him or not. With Jo, I have my doubts he will ever win one; would love him to take advantage of Nadal's absence to sneak into the semis and have another shot, hope he's drawn into Ferrer's quarter.

And yes, Del Potro probably wants a Federer semifinal I'd say. Anything but Djokovic really; imo, when both are playing well, Djokovic vs Del Potro has the potential to be the most brutal matchup on tour, one that could potentially leave the winner cooked for the rest of the tournament if it were to happen in QF or semis.

Such is his physical deficiencies he needs a short and sweet one in there. Super Saturday really doesn't agree with him, but three years ago he did belt Nadull on the backside quickly enough to be fresh for the final.

I was impressed with his change ups at the Olympics (going for lines more and trying to use the net) and he looked a lot less metronomic/robotic. If he gets Ferrer's quarter he'll be there in the semis, he's less likely to fuck up than Tsonga, or an out of form Berdych.

Good that you noticed that, and fair observation. No one can accuse you of being a blind hater ;)

He was slowly starting to add those things to his game in 2009 before injury stopped him. It was good to see it finally coming together at the Olympics.

His robotic (as you put it) hitting from the baseline is more than enough against most of the tour, but he definitely needed more to be a regular threat to the top guys/a top guy himself, not to mention he needed it to have any success on grass.

rickcastle
08-22-2012, 04:43 PM
They haven't? Didn't both of them take Federer and Djokovic to 5 sets at the French Open this year, with Tsonga even having match points agaisnt Nole. That is definitely sterner opposition than Ferrer has offered the Big 3, even if we're only counting this year alone (if we look a bit further back, things look even better).

And what damage did that do exactly? In the end, we got the final we expected - a Djokovic-Nadal one. How did they shake up the tournament? And in those quarterfinals, Ferrer was the one who was actually able to get the win against the player ranked above him. Was unfortunate to meet Nadal in the semifinals - Nadal who was yet to lose a set all tournament. Nadal who is the clay GOAT. Nadal who has bageled Roger fucking Federer on clay. Give me some substantial proof that Tsonga and Del Potro would have fared better against Nadal on Paris' clay. BTW, Ferrer also beat your boy Del Potro in Wimbledon.

Are you seriously arguing Tsonga and Delpo have done nothing to be considered more dangerous forces at Slams than Ferrer? Come on, let's be serious here for a moment :rolleyes: You're a Federer fan, right? You can't possibly tell me that it'd be the same to face say Delpo in SF as facing Ferrer, can you? And what's Roddick got to do with this - he has won the USO before but he has been in steep decline for a while (Del Potro, on the hand, has been slowly returning to his pre injury heights); although there's still a better chance (although very, very slim) of Roddick somehow rewinding the clock and pulling an Ivanisevic than Ferrer winning the tournament, as the latter never had the ability to do so.

For this year? Yes, I am. Roddick was brought up because you are talking about Del Potro in USO as if his win against Federer 3 years ago, before a career threatening injury is relevant to what will go down this USO. Federer has won against Del Potro 6x this year - that is what's relevant. Right now, the guy can't beat Federer anymore than Ferrer can. And mind you that 4 out of those 6x were in hard courts and Del Potro was not able to take a set.

I'm not the only one who believes this by the way. Just check any betting site and look at who they have as fourth and fifth favorite for the Open and the odds given to Ferrer. It's no big revelation that Tsonga and Del Potro are better players and more dangerous at Slams than Ferrer, but I have a feeling people on this thread already know that and are only arguing otherwise for the sake of being contrarian :lol:

I'm not arguing it for the sake of being contrarian. FFS, just accept that some people don't hate Ferrer like you do and can actually see some worth to him. Sorry, but I just don't see Tsonga / Del Potro being SO much better (in their current forms). Tsonga is a likable guy and people like to root for him, but I don't see him as a slam contender. Hasn't been since 2008 and never will. He can get hot for one match and then fall apart in another. He is not consistent and Ferrer is a lot more consistent than him and has made more of his abilities. As for Del Potro, time will tell, but I'm not buying that he is just SO much better right now than Ferrer against the top guys just because he has won one Bo3 Olympic losers match against Djokovic (and then lost decisively in straight sets on a hard court against Djokovic a week later). I make no bones about Ferrer - I don't think he's good enough to beat the top guys at slams. But the truth is, right now, I don't think Del Potro and Tsonga are either.

Allez
08-22-2012, 04:58 PM
I suppose you enjoyed Ferrer's great effort against Nadal in the FO semis this year, definitely something we want to see again in a Slam semifinal, even more so with the Super Saturday format.

:spit:

Corey Feldman
08-22-2012, 05:21 PM
like this pic hehe

http://img.bleacherreport.net/img/images/photos/001/852/162/hi-res-150491263_crop_exact.jpg?w=650&h=440&q=75

Mark Lenders
08-22-2012, 05:25 PM
And what damage did that do exactly? In the end, we got the final we expected - a Djokovic-Nadal one. How did they shake up the tournament? And in those quarterfinals, Ferrer was the one who was actually able to get the win against the player ranked above him. Was unfortunate to meet Nadal in the semifinals - Nadal who was yet to lose a set all tournament. Nadal who is the clay GOAT. Nadal who has bageled Roger fucking Federer on clay. Give me some substantial proof that Tsonga and Del Potro would have fared better against Nadal on Paris' clay. BTW, Ferrer also beat your boy Del Potro in Wimbledon.

It did no damage but it made Federer and Djokovic have to work and did deep to win, especially Nole. The top 3 will always be favorites in Slams, that's why they are the top 3. What we're looking forward is players who can trouble them and even beat them a few times.

And while Tsonga probably wouldn't have done much better (he played his best clay match ever against Djokovic, but usually struggles a lot on clay), Del Potro most definitely would. Did you see the DC final last year? Even while running on fumes (his fitness sucked at the time), he was very, very, very close to take Nadal to 5 in the slowest claycourts around. He'd not have beaten Nadal with his dodgy knee for sure, but he'd have put up a much better fight, no doubt about it.

For this year? Yes, I am. Roddick was brought up because you are talking about Del Potro in USO as if his win against Federer 3 years ago, before a career threatening injury is relevant to what will go down this USO. Federer has won against Del Potro 6x this year - that is what's relevant. Right now, the guy can't beat Federer anymore than Ferrer can. And mind you that 4 out of those 6x were in hard courts and Del Potro was not able to take a set.

Say what? Del Potro has won as many sets against Federer this year as Ferrer has in his entire career. Not to mention he pretty much cost Federer any chance at the Olympic gold, by giving him all he could handle physically and mentally in that epic long semifinal. Do you think Ferrer could have done anything like it? No, as always he'd just have folded in 2 easy sets.

I know he's (still) not the same player he was in 2009 before his career threatening injury, but he's still far better than Ferrer. I agree that this year's matches are the most relevant for the USO, but if you look at those matches JMDP has pushed Federer to the limit in at least three of them (Dubai, RG and especially Olympics), he didn't win but it's not like he has trashed so badly that we can say he has no chance of winning (unlike Ferrer, whose record against Federer reads 3 sets in 13 matches).

I'm not arguing it for the sake of being contrarian. FFS, just accept that some people don't hate Ferrer like you do and can actually see some worth to him. Sorry, but I just don't see Tsonga / Del Potro being SO much better (in their current forms). Tsonga is a likable guy and people like to root for him, but I don't see him as a slam contender. Hasn't been since 2008 and never will. He can get hot for one match and then fall apart in another. He is not consistent and Ferrer is a lot more consistent than him and has made more of his abilities. As for Del Potro, time will tell, but I'm not buying that he is just SO much better right now than Ferrer against the top guys just because he has won one Bo3 Olympic losers match against Djokovic (and then lost decisively in straight sets on a hard court against Djokovic a week later). I make no bones about Ferrer - I don't think he's good enough to beat the top guys at slams. But the truth is, right now, I don't think Del Potro and Tsonga are either.

Yes, Tsonga isn't a Slam contender, he's at best an outsider to win a Slam. But Ferrer is?

And how exactly is Ferrer more consistent than Tsonga? Surely you can't be referring to their ability to go deep in Slams. Ferrer - Participated in 39 Slams, 3 semis + 5 QF Tsonga - Participated in 20 Slams, 1 final, 3 semis and 4 quarters. W-L record at Slams: Ferrer - 89-39 (69,5%) Tsonga - 62-20 (75.6%).

I hope these stats are enough to debunk this myth that Ferrer is more consistent than Tsonga. At Slam level, he isn't, not even close.

And Del Potro didn't just beat Nole in the bronze medal match; two days before he took Federer to 19-17 in the third set effectively ending Federer's chances at a gold medal. Months before, he took Federer to 5 at the FO, etc... he is slowly getting back to his best form and, more importantly, we all know what he can do. I'd agree that from Tsonga we can probably expect no more than one great performance/upset (although that's still more than Ferrer), but Del Potro is very different and you know it. If he beats one of the top seeds, we can fully expect him to keep his level up in the next match. There's a reason he's always given good odds even after his injury; everyone knows what he's capable of, including his fellow top players.

duarte_a
08-22-2012, 05:39 PM
Off topic: Roger and Djokovic have met in the US Open in the past 5 years. Anyone knows if that's a record? And what is the most # of times any 2 players met in a slam?

_Chaz
08-22-2012, 06:53 PM
Just a small interruption to your discussion, but atm there is live streaming of the US Open qualies. And the stream really is of great quality, best I've seen in an internet stream I think.
What I'm interested in, is the surface speed. I didn't watch it closely today (only like 10mins) so I can't really tell if it's still at 2011-slow speed or at the mid-fast speed which they had before 2011.

Link for the stream:
http://2012.usopen.org/en_US/console/console.html?ts=1345661057065&video=A&syn=&db=false&ref=www.usopen.org/en_US/interactive/video/live.html&alt=

Maybe some more guys would watch these quali matches and give an opinion how they think the surface plays.

GOATsol
08-22-2012, 07:05 PM
Such is his physical deficiencies he needs a short and sweet one in there. Super Saturday really doesn't agree with him, but three years ago he did belt Nadull on the backside quickly enough to be fresh for the final.

I was impressed with his change ups at the Olympics (going for lines more and trying to use the net) and he looked a lot less metronomic/robotic. If he gets Ferrer's quarter he'll be there in the semis, he's less likely to fuck up than Tsonga, or an out of form Berdych.
He might not beat Ferrer.

Looner
08-22-2012, 07:07 PM
Off topic: Roger and Djokovic have met in the US Open in the past 5 years. Anyone knows if that's a record? And what is the most # of times any 2 players met in a slam?

The RG12 SF was an open record for RF and ND at 11. As we know, RN and RF have played 10 times in slams (tennis has lost 8 times during those matches).

DrJules
08-22-2012, 07:18 PM
Picking Djokovic, but a Murray in his half may give the opponent a chance in the file.

Physically seems fittest and has most endurance of the top 3 which is essential at the event with "Stupid Saturday". Federer used to have it before, but no longer feel he does.

If we have a Federer-Murray semi-final and a Djokovic-Ferrer semi-final on Saturday, I can easily see Djokovic having a comfortable 3 set win and Federer-Djokovic going 4/5 sets. Nadal's injury means the draw is going to be too biased infavour of whoever does not face Murray out of Federer / Djokovic. I expect the betting favourite at the tournament start from Federer / Djokovic will be the player without Murray in their half of the draw.

EliSter
08-22-2012, 07:25 PM
The RG12 SF was an open record for RF and ND at 11. As we know, RN and RF have played 10 times in slams (tennis has won 8 times during those matches).

Corrected bro.

IOFH
08-22-2012, 07:29 PM
Seriously, no matter where Ferrer is drawn he won't make the semis.

Allez
08-22-2012, 07:38 PM
Picking Djokovic, but a Murray in his half may give the opponent a chance in the file.

Physically seems fittest and has most endurance of the top 3 which is essential at the event with "Stupid Saturday". Federer used to have it before, but no longer feel he does.

If we have a Federer-Murray semi-final and a Djokovic-Ferrer semi-final on Saturday, I can easily see Djokovic having a comfortable 3 set win and Federer-Djokovic going 4/5 sets. Nadal's injury means the draw is going to be too biased infavour of whoever does not face Murray out of Federer / Djokovic. I expect the betting favourite at the tournament start from Federer / Djokovic will be the player without Murray in their half of the draw.

QFT

Ben D.
08-28-2012, 08:37 AM
Other a.k.a RG a.k.a Lionheart

Roy Emerson
08-28-2012, 06:36 PM
Djokovic. :shrug: