Was Rosol def. Nadal the biggest upset in tennis history? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Was Rosol def. Nadal the biggest upset in tennis history?

Johnny Groove
07-24-2012, 03:13 PM
Now that we've had a few weeks to digest the magnitude of the upset (and the haters have had enough time to dry themselves and get some new pants), I have to ask: Was this the greatest upset ever?

A player ranked 100 in the world, having lost first round in qualifying the previous 5 years, while Nadal was busy playing the Wimbledon final, beating said Nadal on the Centre Court?

Some may point to the Soderling upset at RG 09, but that was in the 4th round, Soderling was at least an established top 30 player, and betting wise, the odds were longer on Rosol. I am also reminded of 2005 USO, with Muller beating Roddick, but Muller was 68 in the world at the time, and Roddick was already showing signs of decline in 2005.

Maybe Karlovic def. defending champ Hewitt at Wimbledon 2003? Defending champ JCF losing 2nd round to Andreev at RG 2004? George Bastl def. Sampras at Wimbledon 2002?

My research will continue into the annals of tennis history, but I gotta say, was this the biggest upset in the history of the game?

TigerTim
07-24-2012, 03:15 PM
that dude who beat Becker 198? at Wimby

Freak3yman84
07-24-2012, 03:19 PM
By biggest upset in history, do you mean like a single match? Or would Edmondson's run to the AO title count?

tommyg6
07-24-2012, 03:20 PM
tommyg6 says yes, it was the biggest upset in tennis history. Rosol will always be a hero in my books. GOATsol!

dweijnen
07-24-2012, 03:23 PM
If it was on clay, yes it would be the biggest upset

manadrainer
07-24-2012, 03:26 PM
If it was on clay, yes it would be the biggest upset

This.

Nadal had always showed signs of vulnerability during the first week at wimbledon. This time Rosol kept God mode till the very end.

Nathaliia
07-24-2012, 03:27 PM
i think a few of those would deserve equal
#1

karlovic was hilarious, he was a no one back then... hewitt was the champion...

not to mention bastl :spit: and the funniest is when you get to see current photos of bastl... (i mean, karlovic accomplished something with his career... so did andreev)

muller over roddick was great as well (was muller really 68 ATP ever? :p)... there was a big campaign around roddick in that year.
but after all, muller had that great junior career and he also beat rafito at wimbledon, and when it was completely unexpected and the guy was long time forgotten, he actually came back and snatched some decent wins on main tour

bastl and rosol make it top for me i guess since i have been watching tennis

Chirag
07-24-2012, 03:27 PM
Becker lost in R1 of the 1987 wimbledon when he was the 2 time defending champion .Thats the biggest upset

Action Jackson
07-24-2012, 03:29 PM
Bastl over Sampras and Doohan over Becker were bigger.

Nathaliia
07-24-2012, 03:33 PM
doohan at least won some tournaments...

sampras on the other hand lost to this:

http://www.footsoldiersoftennis.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/george_bastl.jpg

Li Ching Yuen
07-24-2012, 03:33 PM
I think it's pretty simple. The first question I ask is "What is the most dominant player on any particular surface".

The answer is clearly Nadal on clay, and RG just happens to be the clay slam. (slams are best of 5 so they automatically truncate any other tournament, perhaps except Best of 5 Masters Final and Davis Cup, but DC doesn't really count that much due to it's poor format, so yeah)

It has to be Soderling beating Nadal in 09.

TigerTim
07-24-2012, 03:36 PM
I think it's pretty simple. The first question I ask is "What is the most dominant player on any particular surface".

The answer is clearly Nadal on clay, and RG just happens to be the clay slam. (slams are best of 5 so they automatically truncate any other tournament, perhaps except Best of 5 Masters Final and Davis Cup, but DC doesn't really count that much due to it's poor format, so yeah)

It has to be Soderling beating Nadal in 09.

using your logic Sampras vs. Krajicek is equal

Johnny Groove
07-24-2012, 03:39 PM
Doohan was ranked 70 when he beat Becker, Bastl was ranked 145 when he beat Sampras, Karlovic was ranked 203!!!!!!!!

Choices:

Rosol def. Nadal
Soderling def. Nadal
Bastl def. Sampras
Doohan def. Becker
Ivanisevic's entire 2001 run
Muller def. Roddick
Mark Edmondson, ranked 212 in the world as he won AO '76, but a bit of a lesser field.

BroTree123
07-24-2012, 03:40 PM
Daniel Nestor was ranked #238 when he defeated then World No.1 Edberg in five sets 4-6, 6-3, 1-6, 6-3, 6-4 during the Davis Cup clash between Sweden and Canada in 1992. That was also pretty huge.

I'd say that's right up there as one of the biggest upsets in tennis history.

Li Ching Yuen
07-24-2012, 03:43 PM
using your logic Sampras vs. Krajicek is equal

Let me put it straight for you: Nadal's dominance and playing level on clay against any other player is much bigger than what everyone else has ever done on any other surface and at any other tournament. By quite a large margin.

Records are records, seeing the matches and acknowledging how far superior a player is on that surface against anyone else is what sticks to me.

Sampras was mentally tough and a great competitor. I always felt like he had it good with only one "Krajicek" episode.

Krajicek could play like a monster on a good day. That upset is a huge surprise only for people that only gawk at record sheets and statistics.

masterclass
07-24-2012, 03:45 PM
Mr. Groove, you're talking about biggest upsets in a major in the Open Era, right?

In pure rankings terms I would say:

1. Aussie Mark Edmondson winning the 1976 Australian Open
The 212th ranked Australian beat Phil Dent, Ken Roswall in the semis, and defending champion John Newcombe in the final.

2. Goran Ivanisevic wins 2001 Wimbledon
Wild Card 125th ranked Goran Ivanisevic, was the lowest-ranked player and only wild card to win Wimbledon.
He beat #33 Roddick, #40 Rusedski, #3 Safin, #11 Henman, #10 Rafter to win the tournament.

3. 20 year old 66th ranked Gustavo Kuerten won Roland Garros 1997 beating #5 Muster and #3 Kafelnikov along the way before defeating Spaniard #19 Brugera in the final.

4. Lukas Rosol #100 defeating #2 seed Rafael Nadal in the second round of Wimbledon

5. Swiss lucky loser 145th ranked George Bastl beat 30 year old #13 Pete Sampras in 2002 Wimbledon

Respectfully,
masterclass

Li Ching Yuen
07-24-2012, 03:53 PM
Don't get me wrong, I do rank the Rosol upset pretty highly.

I don't know how Ivanisevic's entire run at Wimbledon should qualify for this thread. That was a streak of matches not an upset. Given the players that were active back then, even if he had beaten Sampras in the finals or R1 for example it would still be inferior to a few others. Ivanisevic was no slouch.

Rankings are rankings, they're just a number, sometimes it doesn't tell the whole story.

masterclass
07-24-2012, 03:54 PM
Don't get me wrong, I do rank the Rosol upset pretty highly.

I don't know how Ivanisevic's entire run at Wimbledon should qualify for this thread. That was a streak of matches not an upset. Given the players that were active back then, even if he had beaten Sampras in the finals or R1 for example it would still be inferior to a few others. Ivanisevic was no slouch.

Rankings are rankings, they're just a number, sometimes it doesn't tell the whole story.

Agree 100%. This was only in terms of rankings.

Respectfully,
masterclass

DJ Soup
07-24-2012, 03:59 PM
Soderling, and I never really liked the guy



till then

Johnny Groove
07-24-2012, 04:00 PM
Guga's run was pretty impressive in '97, beating former RG champions left and right.

I have another question: Does the rest of the player's career matter in terms of defining the upsets? For instance, since Soderling backed up his upset at RG 09 by making the final, another final the next year, and being a consistent top 10 player for a couple of years, does it lessen the shock of the upset a bit?

Muller, Karlovic, Doohan, all have had respectable careers. Nestor over Edberg, that was insane, Nestor has had a solid doubles career. But George Bastl!!!!!!! But at the same time, Pete was clearly past his prime.

I think a lot will depend on how the rest of Rosol's career (and Nadal's) pans out.

Li Ching Yuen
07-24-2012, 04:02 PM
Lendl was one guy that avoided the huge upset. If someone lower ranked had gotten the best of him at USO during the 80's that would've been something worthy of this thread.

His record at USO was stellar.

BroTree123
07-24-2012, 04:02 PM
Yeah. Nestor will always be an eye opener for me. This guy is a doubles specialist for Gods sake. Ranked #238 and hardly played on the singles main tour, only in challengers.

ibreak4coffee
07-24-2012, 04:03 PM
No. Losing in one match to a huge server on grass - regardless of who you are - is not the greatest upset in tennis history

Li Ching Yuen
07-24-2012, 04:05 PM
No. Losing in one match to a huge server on grass - regardless of who you are - is not the greatest upset in tennis history

If you're talking about Krajicek, then yes. If you're talking about Rosol, then no.

The Fearhand
07-24-2012, 04:08 PM
This.

Nadal had always showed signs of vulnerability during the first week at wimbledon. This time Rosol kept God mode till the very end.

I agree with that but still it is one of the biggest upsets ever perhaps the biggest.

Sophocles
07-24-2012, 04:12 PM
Am inclined to agree Soderling was bigger. At the time Soderling was barely in the Top 30, had no pedigree on clay, had been thrashed by Nadal in Rome, & had always failed at slams, whereas Nadal had never lost at R.G. & never even been taken to 5 sets, even by peak Federer. That Nadal should lose at R.G. at all was upset enough, but to Soderling? Whatever his subsequent record at R.G., at the time nobody thought he had it in him. The result sent shockwaves through the sport, with the French press referring to it as "the earthquake" for days on end. Doohan against Becker was comparable, I guess.

I suppose we could distinguish between "shock" & "upset". The bigger shock is the more surprising result, the bigger upset the one with the greater disparity between the quality of the players. Under the second definition, I guess Nestor against Edberg is winning so far.

Roy Emerson
07-24-2012, 04:15 PM
Doohan beating Becker(defending champ) in 1987.


http://www.nytimes.com/1987/06/27/sports/the-reign-at-wimbledon-ends-as-becker-is-upset-doohan-ranked-70th-tops-champion.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm


Nadal was not even the defending champ. Also Nadal is not on grass what Becker was in his prime. This was a bigger upset. Becker was a much better grasscourt player so that was a bigger upset. Plus Nadal is past his prime now and these losses will happen. Becker in his early 20s was still in his prime.
Becker lost in R1 of the 1987 wimbledon when he was the 2 time defending champion .Thats the biggest upset

Exactly.

HKz
07-24-2012, 04:21 PM
Not even close.. Soderling defeating Rafa at the French was a much bigger upset, and even then, I wouldn't consider that the biggest upset in men's tennis, although it is certainly up there. Rosol beating Rafa was not entirely surprising, at least for, even soon after the match. Yes, it was still rather unbelievable that Rosol pulled it off, however, remember that Rafa was down so many times at Wimbledon throughout the years and he has narrowly escape each time, a couple times due to some luck on his side. Kendrick was 2 points away from winning their match in 2006, Soderling had a break? or had break points in the 5th set in 2007, Youzhny was up 2 sets to love in 2007, Federer had his chances in the 5th set in 2008, and Petzschner/Haase also had their chances to win their matches against Rafa in 2010. So I'm not sure how a player, as in Rosol, who was able to take that one extra step all those players before him couldn't is considered a huge upset.

Chang beating Lendl at the French Open is arguably one of the biggest upsets. Chang obviously very young, far less experienced and Lendl was a multi slam winner both overall and at Roland Garros.

mickymouse
07-24-2012, 04:27 PM
I still think it's Soderling beating Nadal at RG. All you need is the reaction of the tennnis world to tell you which is the bigger upset. Nadal losing to Rosol was talked about but the shock value was nowhere close to him losing to Soderling. I'm sure many Nadal fans would admit to crying when he lost at RG but I doubt any of them shed a tear at his loss to Rosol.

Renaud
07-24-2012, 04:27 PM
Huet (293) def Lendl (7) in RG 1993 must be mentionned.

rocketassist
07-24-2012, 04:34 PM
Doug Flach beating Agassi at Wimbledon. Closed it out with no nerves. And an American to boot.
Yzaga beating Sampras at the US Open.
Alberto Martin upsetting no 1 seed Hewitt at the 2002 AO.
Muller's win over Roddick at the US Open 2005.
Safin's 2nd round win over defending champ Kuerten at RG (as a qualifier) although what he went on to achieve probably excludes it

Gabe32
07-24-2012, 04:42 PM
I don't know too much about tennis history but surely Ivanisevic's 2001 Wimbledon victory is crazier than Rosol's Round 3 exit. I know we are only looking at matches, so how about Ivanisevic's win over Rafter in the final of Wimbledon?

Also Nadal is clearly on the decline. And it pains me because he is one of my favorite players, but in your original post you added that past upsets were only because players were on the decline (like Roddick in 05). In my opinion Nadal is just as much, perhaps even more on the decline than Roddick was in 2005.

Li Ching Yuen
07-24-2012, 04:44 PM
I don't know too much about tennis history but surely Ivanisevic's 2001 Wimbledon victory is crazier than Rosol's Round 3 exit. I know we are only looking at matches, so how about Ivanisevic's win over Rafter in the final of Wimbledon?

Also Nadal is clearly on the decline. And it pains me because he is one of my favorite players, but in your original post you added that past upsets were only because players were on the decline (like Roddick in 05). In my opinion Nadal is just as much, perhaps even more on the decline than Roddick was in 2005.

He won a slam two months ago. What are you talking about?

Gabe32
07-24-2012, 04:46 PM
He won a slam two months ago. What are you talking about?

His body is pretty much broken is what I am talking about. The man is physically "declining" to say the least. Imploding may be a better word. His broken body has caused him to skip Wimbledon (as the defending champion) and the Olympics (as the defending champion).

He was winning 3 slams just two years ago, so he is by definition, declining in achievements too.

Would you call him an "up and comer"?

IOFH
07-24-2012, 04:53 PM
Statistically, maybe (I dunno). Taking into consideration it's Nadal in week 1 of Wimbledon, and the kind of player Rosol is, not even close.

IOFH
07-24-2012, 04:59 PM
I think it's pretty simple. The first question I ask is "What is the most dominant player on any particular surface".

The answer is clearly Nadal on clay, and RG just happens to be the clay slam. (slams are best of 5 so they automatically truncate any other tournament, perhaps except Best of 5 Masters Final and Davis Cup, but DC doesn't really count that much due to it's poor format, so yeah)

It has to be Soderling beating Nadal in 09.

At the time, perhaps. Sod's level since that and the fact that he beat Federer the next year playing just as well, if not better, kinda takes something away from that.

If Rosol does something significant from now on it would do the same thing, but I doubt he will.

Roger the Dodger
07-24-2012, 05:52 PM
Am inclined to agree Soderling was bigger. At the time Soderling was barely in the Top 30, had no pedigree on clay, had been thrashed by Nadal in Rome, & had always failed at slams, whereas Nadal had never lost at R.G. & never even been taken to 5 sets, even by peak Federer. That Nadal should lose at R.G. at all was upset enough, but to Soderling? Whatever his subsequent record at R.G., at the time nobody thought he had it in him. The result sent shockwaves through the sport, with the French press referring to it as "the earthquake" for days on end. Doohan against Becker was comparable, I guess.

I suppose we could distinguish between "shock" & "upset". The bigger shock is the more surprising result, the bigger upset the one with the greater disparity between the quality of the players. Under the second definition, I guess Nestor against Edberg is winning so far.

I agree with Softy.

Soderling's was definitely bigger given that RG was and still is Nadal's best hunting ground. Nadal lost to guys like Muller and Ancic, I think before he took up form on grass and made 5 consecutive finals at Wimbly, and then lost to Rosol. Soderling's victory is like a strong blot on a white sheet of Nadal's CV. Even before you notice his list of achievements; its the blotch you notice first.

BLOP! ... like that.

evilmindbulgaria
07-24-2012, 06:53 PM
Nadal's only (so far) defeat at Roland Garros in 2009 was much bigger of an upset.

samanosuke
07-24-2012, 07:00 PM
If we know that Dodig > Nadal, Rosol defeat Dodig round before is even bigger upset

finishingmove
07-24-2012, 07:01 PM
Nadal's only (so far) defeat at Roland Garros in 2009 was much bigger of an upset.

Agreed.

samanosuke
07-24-2012, 07:04 PM
In '91 Ivanisevic lost at Wimbledon to Nick Brown. A guy ranked 591

finishingmove
07-24-2012, 07:07 PM
If we know that Dodig > Nadal, Rosol defeat Dodig round before is even bigger upset

:spit:

But IMO, GGL was the bigger upset. And funnier match too.

tommyg6
07-24-2012, 07:17 PM
Rosol is Boss. His win was indeed one of the biggest upsets ever. No, actually make it the biggest. Any wins over Nadal is always good for the tour.

Rosol is Boss. He's my hero. He took out piggy like it was another day in the office.

GODsol
GOATsol
FEDsol
BALLBASHERSol

Andy1402
07-27-2012, 12:44 AM
Yes. I definitely think rosol handing nadal his ass was worse than what soderling did. Soderling was a top 30 player for quite a while and then stuck in the top 10 for a year. Rosol is an unknown entity who played the game of his life for one match and defeated the second greatest grass player of the generation.
Also i think nadal was definitely injured during RG09 which makes the defeat a little more realistic.

Say Hey Kid
07-27-2012, 01:26 AM
I still think it's Soderling beating Nadal at RG. All you need is the reaction of the tennnis world to tell you which is the bigger upset. Nadal losing to Rosol was talked about but the shock value was nowhere close to him losing to Soderling. I'm sure many Nadal fans would admit to crying when he lost at RG but I doubt any of them shed a tear at his loss to Rosol.


Rosol was much bigger upset than Soderling.

Rafa's loss to Soderling now looks much bigger due to the fact he has won RG every year since he lost to Robin in 2009. However, let's rewind here. There is a reason Nadal was only an oddsmaker favorite of 1.07 vs Soderling. His form was visibly not as sharp, and he was playing a solid opponent.

If you go by the oddsmakers, and people who make a living trading tennis odds, Soderling beating Nadal wasn't even the biggest upset of the year, in fact, it wasn't even in the top 3.

No doubt, it was still a very big upset, and it is over-exemplified today due to Nadal not losing at RG since 2009. Yet, at the time the matches were played, Soderling was much more of a threat on Nadal's clay than Rosol was on grass. I remember that match vividly, and quite a few respectable tennis handicappers liked Soderling. No one knowledgable in the field of predicting tennis outcomes entertained the thought of Rosol winning, no one. The odds reflect that, as Rosol was a 55-1 underdog. Yet, at betfair you could lay 1-14 on Nadal to win vs Soderling.

nastoff
07-27-2012, 01:45 AM
Is George Bastl at the WWE these days?

abraxas21
07-27-2012, 02:05 AM
soderling over nadal in RG was a bigger upset

abraxas21
07-27-2012, 02:14 AM
Not even close.. Soderling defeating Rafa at the French was a much bigger upset, and even then, I wouldn't consider that the biggest upset in men's tennis, although it is certainly up there. Rosol beating Rafa was not entirely surprising, at least for, even soon after the match. Yes, it was still rather unbelievable that Rosol pulled it off, however, remember that Rafa was down so many times at Wimbledon throughout the years and he has narrowly escape each time, a couple times due to some luck on his side. Kendrick was 2 points away from winning their match in 2006, Soderling had a break? or had break points in the 5th set in 2007, Youzhny was up 2 sets to love in 2007, Federer had his chances in the 5th set in 2008, and Petzschner/Haase also had their chances to win their matches against Rafa in 2010. So I'm not sure how a player, as in Rosol, who was able to take that one extra step all those players before him couldn't is considered a huge upset.

Chang beating Lendl at the French Open is arguably one of the biggest upsets. Chang obviously very young, far less experienced and Lendl was a multi slam winner both overall and at Roland Garros.

this

nadal has never been very dominant in the first week of wimbledon. he scaped many times due to his fighting spirit, antics and also choking opponents.

nadal in RG on the other hand has always been dominant all the way. plus, you also have to consider the h2h before the match. while soderling had curiosuly pushed nadal to 5 in the first week of wimbledon before, he had been crushed by nadal only a few weeks ago in rome. nobody ever thought soderling could beat nadal whereas with a player like rosol, strong serve, big game, etc in the first week of wimbledon with the possibility of a closed roof, you could figure he had a chance, albeit a really small one.

soderling was beneffited by the environment in that RG match, though. humid wheather made conditions slower and lowered the power of nadal's topsin and that somehow allowed a fast court player like soda to play at his very best. a couple of years later he'd beat federer in the same court under virtually the same wheather conditions.

both were huge upsets but soda's probly the biggest one in the history of the open era.

Juz78
07-27-2012, 02:37 AM
If it was on clay, yes it would be the biggest upset

My thoughts exactly. It's definitely up there, but the fact that it was on grass for me also doesn't make it the all time biggest upset.

pray-for-palestine-and-israel
07-27-2012, 03:26 AM
19yr old fed def defending champ sampras