Is Djokovic the favorite for Wimbledon + Olympics? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Is Djokovic the favorite for Wimbledon + Olympics?

Federer in 2
06-09-2012, 07:02 PM
Novak Djokovic is the world number 1, and he will remain number 1 at least until Wimby. Despite that, grass is still his worst surface.
Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are in his way. Federer is career-wise the best grass player of the 3 by far, but is past his prime and has big time mental issues against the top 2. Nadal is at his prime age, but has lost his 3 last GS finals to Djokovic, and is not as brilliant on grass as he is on slow surfaces (still better on grass than Djokovic, though).

The reason I'm asking is because I saw some odds on a betting site about those grass tournaments, and let's say it doesn't look to smart to me.

Wimbledon
Djokovic - 3.00
Nadal - 3.50
Federer - 5.00

Olympics
Djokovic - 2.50
Nadal - 3.50
Federer - 4.00

Am I the only one who thinks that way, or is it a way to make some money because people on this site are silly? :)

sweetkit
06-09-2012, 07:04 PM
No and no. /closed

emotion
06-09-2012, 07:06 PM
No way should Djoko be favorite. He's not that good on grass. He was in god mode pretty much all last year, and he really does not have that this year. He's not that good on grass. Even if injured, I'd take odds on fedex

Federer in 2
06-09-2012, 07:07 PM
No way should Djoko be favorite. He's not that good on grass. He was in god mode pretty much all last year, and he really does not have that this year. He's not that good on grass. Even if injured, I'd take odds on fedex

Yeah but than really the odds are dumb. Should I put something on Fedal? :)

Mark Lenders
06-09-2012, 07:13 PM
Well, Djokovic is #1, defending champions, and has been almost impossible to take down at Slams, coming back from seemingly impossible positions. It's normal he's considered the favorite. I reckon that if Rafa wins tomorrow the odds will definitely see a shift, with Rafa becoming the odds-on favorite.

I'm really tempted to put some money on Rafa right now though; those odds are almost too good to pass on.

Federer is a bit overrated if anything imo, he has really struggled on grass in the past two years even in early rounds and lost to the first big hitting players he faced. I suppose he could show better form on the surface this year, we'll know more when he faces Nadal/Berdych at Halle, but as of right now I'd definitely not put any money on him, even at those odds.

ServeVolley
06-09-2012, 07:14 PM
Is Djokovic the favorite for Wimbledon + Olympics?

No, and no. Federer and Nadal are much superior grass court players, and they both have a better winning percentage (90%+ to Djoko's 86%) overall this year.

Wing Man Frank
06-09-2012, 07:18 PM
No, and no. Federer and Nadal are much superior grass court players, and they both have a better winning percentage (90%+ to Djoko's 86%) overall this year.

You'd have Federer as a favourite over Djokovic were they too meet?

Seriously?

iriraz
06-09-2012, 07:19 PM
Can anyone be considered a top favourite for Olympics?In best of 3 set matches on grass it`s tough to make predictions.Any top guy can lose 7-6 7-6 to someone like Isner or any big hitter who gets on a lucky streak

Johnny Groove
06-09-2012, 07:29 PM
It all depends on the RG result.

ServeVolley
06-09-2012, 07:29 PM
You'd have Federer as a favourite over Djokovic were they too meet?

Seriously?

If it came to it, yes. Fed's serve was atrocious in Rome and RG, but, assuming it's back to normal by Wimbledon, it should be enough to get him through Djokovic on grass.

Wing Man Frank
06-09-2012, 07:32 PM
If it came to it, yes. Fed's serve was atrocious in Rome and RG, but, assuming it's back to normal by Wimbledon, it should be enough to get him through Djokovic.

I'm shocked by that. Got to assume your a Fed fan as normally your posts are really good and make a lot of sense.

It might not be Novak's best surface, but he's too far in front of Federer nowadays. If this match was taking place with Federer in his prime, he wins, but not now.

ServeVolley
06-09-2012, 07:42 PM
I'm shocked by that. Got to assume your a Fed fan as normally your posts are really good and make a lot of sense.

It might not be Novak's best surface, but he's too far in front of Federer nowadays. If this match was taking place with Federer in his prime, he wins, but not now.

I disagree. The incredible form Federer had sustained ever since Basel last year dropped dramatically after the back injury in Madrid (all of his stats plummetted, especially the serve). Rome and RG therefore aren't a true indication of how he will do against Djokovic at Wimbledon. Look at the two matches preceding this clay season (RG 2011 and USO 2011), and you'll see why an improved Federer (assuming he gets his form back), especially on grass, will be able to beat Novak.

Also, the fact that Federer has a 90% winning percentage for this year, over Djokovic at 86%, should tell you that Fed isn't actually that far behind him at all.

Clay Death
06-09-2012, 07:42 PM
olympics is best of 3 sets foremat until the final.

i pick Fed for the olympics.

asmazif
06-09-2012, 07:42 PM
I'm shocked by that. Got to assume your a Fed fan as normally your posts are really good and make a lot of sense.

It might not be Novak's best surface, but he's too far in front of Federer nowadays. If this match was taking place with Federer in his prime, he wins, but not now.

I'd definitely still put Fed as favourite (not by much) against Nole on grass. But it would be very interesting - it's amazing they've never met on the surface actually.

Wing Man Frank
06-09-2012, 07:49 PM
I disagree. The incredible form Federer had sustained ever since Basel last year dropped dramatically after the injury in Madrid (all of his stats plummetted, especially the serve). Rome and RG therefore aren't a true indication of how he will do against Djokovic at Wimbledon. Look at the two matches preceding this clay season (RG 2011 and USO 2011), and you'll see why an improved Federer (assuming he gets his form back), especially on grass, will be able to beat Novak.

Since 2011 he's won 7 of their last 8 meetings.

You're assuming that a) Fed's form will improve and that b) he could beat Novak over the course of a 5 set match - I don't think there's a whole lot of evidence to suggest that would be the case other than the USO 2011. That in itself was a match that Novak made really hard work of. He had double the number of break points compared to Federer, won a lot more points and really should have won quite easily.

I wonder what injury you are alluding too? Surely were he injured, he'd have just missed Rome out?

There's no doubt in my mind that Federer on his best beats Novak on grass, but right now he doesn't have the game for it imo.

ServeVolley
06-09-2012, 08:09 PM
Since 2011 he's won 7 of their last 8 meetings.

You're assuming that a) Fed's form will improve and that b) he could beat Novak over the course of a 5 set match - I don't think there's a whole lot of evidence to suggest that would be the case other than the USO 2011. That in itself was a match that Novak made really hard work of. He had double the number of break points compared to Federer, won a lot more points and really should have won quite easily.

I wonder what injury you are alluding too? Surely were he injured, he'd have just missed Rome out?

There's no doubt in my mind that Federer on his best beats Novak on grass, but right now he doesn't have the game for it imo.

6 of 7 actually (or 6 of 11 going back to 2010). And yes, it all depends on whether he gets the form back, which of course we'll see over the next two or three weeks.

As for the injury, he hurt his back in Madrid. It was touch and go whether he would even play Rome but, after seeing the (relatively easy) draw, and knowing that he needed at least a few matches on red clay before RG, he decided to. Clearly his serve was greatly affected by it though (got pushed by Berlocq and lost a set to Ferrero), and still seemed to be during the French (since when has Federer lost sets to challenger level players three rounds in a row?).

Fingers crossed he can get his rhythm back in Halle.

Jimnik
06-09-2012, 08:12 PM
Yup

http://sports.betfair.com/?ti=2&tmi=26802358&ex=1&origin=LHMA

Wing Man Frank
06-09-2012, 08:18 PM
6 of 7 actually (or 6 of 11 going back to 2010). And yes, it all depends on whether he gets the form back, which of course we'll see over the next two or three weeks.

As for the injury, he hurt his back in Madrid. It was touch and go whether he would even play Rome but, after seeing the (relatively easy) draw, and knowing that he needed at least a few matches on red clay before RG, he decided to. Clearly his serve was greatly affected by it though (got pushed by Berloq and lost a set to Ferrero), and still seemed to be during the French (since when has Federer lost sets to challenger players three rounds in a row?).

I think you're too easily making excuses for him personally. Clay's clearly his weakest surface and to me he was always going to lose to either Nadal/Djokovic depending on the draw.

Thing's might be different on grass, but I don't see it. Were it a BO3 then he has a real chance, but over the course of a BO5 I see those two getting the better of him nearly every single time. Guess it's a case of waiting and finding out...

I haven't gone back to 2010 for the H2H because from 2011 onwards Novak's been a completely different beast. I also included an exhibition match in the UAE in my h2h, so officially you're correct. My mistake.

TigerTim
06-09-2012, 09:27 PM
Nadal is my fav for Wimby
Federer and Murray for Olympics

BauerAlmeida
06-09-2012, 09:33 PM
For Wimbledon yes.


For the Olympics maybe Federer as it is Bo3, but I don't think he'll beat Nadal if the play.....It depends a lot on the draw actually (in both tournaments). Hard to pick a favorite.

ModestyB
06-09-2012, 10:36 PM
I don't think that there's a favorite at the moment at all. Except Federer, there's no player who could be a huge favorite on grass considering the playing style solely, but Fed doesn't seem mentally or physically fit enough to win the whole thing. Other players don't stand a chance against Nadal or Novak in the second week. Maybe Tsonga, but he can't beat them both.

I'd love too see some new GS winners really, but I don't see that happening in the next 2 years.

samanosuke
06-09-2012, 10:38 PM
I would be really surprised if Nole defends Wimby title. Regardless to his last year title he isn't dominant grass court player and there is decent numbers of guys who can't hurt on grass

tektonac
06-09-2012, 10:42 PM
declining federer is always the favorite. it is always on his racquet. too bad mikey and habibko are not around to confirm that ;)

sicko
06-09-2012, 10:56 PM
only fed's odds are attractive, but then again, fed winning 7 straight BO5 matches wih rafole in the house is really an unsure thing, even on grass. If I had to choose, I'd go with nadal, but 3.50 for the whole thing just sucks, it doesn't make up for the wide range of possible outcomes.

Looner
06-09-2012, 11:02 PM
Why are these odds so low? Like it's the whole thing, not one match. Bookmakers sure like to play it safe don't they...

Jimnik
06-09-2012, 11:11 PM
Why are these odds so low? Like it's the whole thing, not one match. Bookmakers sure like to play it safe don't they...
Betfair is not a bookmaker.

Federer in 2
06-09-2012, 11:16 PM
Why are these odds so low? Like it's the whole thing, not one match. Bookmakers sure like to play it safe don't they...

Are you kidding me? Suppose I put a 100 bucks on Roger, another 100 on Rafa and another 100 on Novak. That's 300 dollars being spent.
If Novak wins - I get 300$. So nothing changes...
If Rafa wins - I get 350$. Made 50.
If Roger wins - I get 500$. Made 200.

Only way to lose money is if someone outside top 3 wins the tourney. Odds of that = 0%.

70-68
06-09-2012, 11:19 PM
Nadal should be the favorite for Wimbledon, but it might change if he loses the RG final. He lost only to Djokovic since 2007, and Djokovic is not playing that great now like he did last year. He might not even make the final this year.

sicko
06-09-2012, 11:32 PM
Are you kidding me? Suppose I put a 100 bucks on Roger, another 100 on Rafa and another 100 on Novak. That's 300 dollars being spent.
If Novak wins - I get 300$. So nothing changes...
If Rafa wins - I get 350$. Made 50.
If Roger wins - I get 500$. Made 200.

Only way to lose money is if someone outside top 3 wins the tourney. Odds of that = 0%.

nice bet. :lol:

so you basically risk 300 for the likely scenario of 0 or 50 profit? :D

can it get any worse than that?:wavey:

if you think fed can do it, then put 50 on him. way better.

Wing Man Frank
06-09-2012, 11:35 PM
Are you kidding me? Suppose I put a 100 bucks on Roger, another 100 on Rafa and another 100 on Novak. That's 300 dollars being spent.
If Novak wins - I get 300$. So nothing changes...
If Rafa wins - I get 350$. Made 50.
If Roger wins - I get 500$. Made 200.

Only way to lose money is if someone outside top 3 wins the tourney. Odds of that = 0%.

You are forgetting the commission on betfair.

Bayyyy
06-10-2012, 04:16 AM
There is no way that Djokovic is the favourite for Wimbledon or Olympics last year was his year, not this year.

156mphserve
06-10-2012, 04:20 AM
At Wimbledon? Yes

At Olympics? Yes

At Both? No

I think if anyone were to win both it would be Federer, Djokovic might but I'd bet on Federer first for getting both.

Federer is in terrible form, and is aging so I'd favour Nole over him, especially on slow grass like Wimbledon. The only surface Nadal can beat Nole on is clay, so I'd favour Nole over Nadal. But if Fed were to catch form he could easily take both, and I think that's more likely than Nole taking both

156mphserve
06-10-2012, 04:21 AM
actually, forgot Olympics was best of 3. Fed is probably the favorite at the Olmypics then

J99
06-10-2012, 04:23 AM
actually, forgot Olympics was best of 3. Fed is probably the favorite at the Olmypics then

How can Fed be the favorite at the Olympics, when he's never won it before.

swebright
06-10-2012, 05:17 AM
I would bet on Nadal than Novak.

BroTree123
06-10-2012, 05:21 AM
Fuck no.

Chase Visa
06-10-2012, 05:23 AM
No.

Chase Visa
06-10-2012, 05:24 AM
How can Fed be the favorite at the Olympics, when he's never won it before.

Neither has Nole.

uxyzapenje
06-10-2012, 05:33 AM
Nadal is my fav for Wimby
Federer and Murray for Olympics

Djokovic said 'I will put all my focus on RG and Olympics.' Ok, in RG you have Rafa to stop tham, but in the Olympics, you think Murray can stop on-a-mission Novak??????

Ukyo
06-10-2012, 05:44 AM
Djokovic is pretty much the #1 favorite for every upcoming event.

He's going to prove all the Rafa fans wrong today when he beats him @ RG, and then they'll realize that Nole 2.0 never left the building.

Clay Death
06-10-2012, 05:52 AM
negative.

we will help you understand the reality on the ground better tomorrow.

first watch the match.

Ukyo
06-10-2012, 05:59 AM
negative.

we will help you understand the reality on the ground better tomorrow.

first watch the match.Sup CD, been a long time.

So how can you estimate Rafa's form? Based on what?

Clay Death
06-10-2012, 06:02 AM
long time no see mate. hope you are doing well.

dont be a stranger. stop by the castle tomorrow and say hello.

leng jai
06-10-2012, 06:06 AM
If Rogi loses to Nole at Wimbledon he will retire for his fans.

J99
06-10-2012, 06:35 AM
Neither has Nole.

Fed's been around a bit longer and had more chances than Nole, besides Nole 4 years ago wasn't nearly as good, Federer not making it past the QF of the last 2 Wimby's is a major reason for him not being the favorite.

barahmasa
06-10-2012, 10:32 AM
:silly:

Just NO

You'd think watching his matches for the last 5 months would be enough to estimate his game level :confused:
I guess not a lot of people here actually watch some tennis :o

Chase Visa
06-10-2012, 10:49 AM
Fed's been around a bit longer and had more chances than Nole, besides Nole 4 years ago wasn't nearly as good, Federer not making it past the QF of the last 2 Wimby's is a major reason for him not being the favorite.
Look I don't think Fed the favourite for Wimbledon. He simply isn't as clutch as Rafole at Slams, and while I really rate Berdych and Tsonga on grass, he's lost to them whereas Rafole haven't.

However, 3 sets on grass is a different kettle of beast. Besides, he'll probably be more motivated for the Olympics given this is probably his last shot at it.

Ash86
06-10-2012, 11:01 AM
Look I don't think Fed the favourite for Wimbledon. He simply isn't as clutch as Rafole at Slams, and while I really rate Berdych and Tsonga on grass, he's lost to them whereas Rafole haven't.

However, 3 sets on grass is a different kettle of beast. Besides, he'll probably be more motivated for the Olympics given this is probably his last shot at it.

Djokovic lost to Berdych in Wimbledon 2010. Nadal lost to Tsonga at Queens last year. Both Tsonga and Berdych have the game to beat Rafole on grass on their day - if Tsonga's serve is on there are very few chances for the other player...

Obviously Rafole are still favourites in these match ups but grass gives Tsonga and Berdych the best chance to pull off an upset.

Allez
06-10-2012, 11:17 AM
declining federer is always the favorite. it is always on his racquet. too bad mikey and habibko are not around to confirm that ;)

Don't worry...ServeVolley is plenty around to confirm that and then some ;)

J99
06-10-2012, 11:23 AM
Look I don't think Fed the favourite for Wimbledon. He simply isn't as clutch as Rafole at Slams, and while I really rate Berdych and Tsonga on grass, he's lost to them whereas Rafole haven't.

However, 3 sets on grass is a different kettle of beast. Besides, he'll probably be more motivated for the Olympics given this is probably his last shot at it.

Yeah I know, I was kinda still addressing the other post.

Fed in 3 maybe has more of a chance, or less, it's the Olympics, it's quite the different scenario, anything can happen there more so than at any other tourney as we have seen.

born_on_clay
06-10-2012, 01:55 PM
No, he isn't

isner-fan
06-10-2012, 04:53 PM
No, he isn't

And bookies think he is a favorite.
At least if I bet real money, Djok is the safest choice

Wing Man Frank
06-10-2012, 06:00 PM
On the display we are seeing currently, I'd mortgage your parents house and get it on Djokovic.

TigerTim
06-10-2012, 06:04 PM
I'd follow Wing Man's Advice, Nadal if he loses this will be crushed. This is McEnroe stuff from Djokovic ending the career of the dull grinding clay court genius he opposes. VAMOS Novak.

Houstonko
06-10-2012, 06:25 PM
Since 2011 he's won 7 of their last 8 meetings.

You're assuming that a) Fed's form will improve and that b) he could beat Novak over the course of a 5 set match - I don't think there's a whole lot of evidence to suggest that would be the case other than the USO 2011. That in itself was a match that Novak made really hard work of. He had double the number of break points compared to Federer, won a lot more points and really should have won quite easily.

I wonder what injury you are alluding too? Surely were he injured, he'd have just missed Rome out?

There's no doubt in my mind that Federer on his best beats Novak on grass, but right now he doesn't have the game for it imo.

Don't assume so fast. Federer will only beat Djokovic at the right time. Last year he did it at crucial time. He is smart by taking timeout and waiting for both Nakovic's luck run out and injuries.

Fireballer
06-10-2012, 06:38 PM
Don't assume so fast. Federer will only beat Djokovic at the right time. Last year he did it at crucial time. He is smart by taking timeout and waiting for both Nakovic's luck run out and injuries.

only way he can win

Federer in 2
06-10-2012, 06:42 PM
only way he can win

Sad hater

hipolymer
06-10-2012, 06:42 PM
After watching this match, Djokovic is definitely the favorite. The only thing he needs to do is improve his serve a little, but there's plenty of time for that.

Federer in 2
07-06-2012, 10:24 PM
After watching this match, Djokovic is definitely the favorite. The only thing he needs to do is improve his serve a little, but there's plenty of time for that.

:bowdown:

Julián Santiago
07-06-2012, 10:26 PM
only way he can win

Bye Hater

:wavey:

guga2120
07-06-2012, 10:33 PM
If Federer wins and even if he does not he will be the betting favorite at the olympics. The fact that an old man was a better mover than the current #1 is not a good thing for Novak. Once they get back to America, on the hardcourts, thats were Novak is the clear favorite against anybody.

WhoCares
07-06-2012, 11:20 PM
If Federer wins and even if he does not he will be the betting favorite at the olympics. The fact that an old man was a better mover than the current #1 is not a good thing for Novak. Once they get back to America, on the hardcourts, thats were Novak is the clear favorite against anybody.

Quite the opposite, America's hard courts are different that the Australian's. They are way faster and federer is still fav there.
but as far as the Australian's hard courts, yes, I agree.. Nole is favorite there.

romismak
07-06-2012, 11:28 PM
I think at Olympics Roger should be favorit, he is best grass-court player among top guys and now he showed at Wimbledon he can beat and outplay Nole on grass, and it will be best of 3 which is always better for somebody with good serve and Roger is clearly best server among top 4

About HC, i believe Nole is biggest favorit at USO, no matter if Roger wins both Wimbledon + Olympics

Moose Limb
08-03-2012, 10:00 PM
I believe he is. After all, Novak said this 'bout both not too long ago:

I will try to set up my form for Roland Garros, the Grand Slam I still don’t have, where I want to get the title and go all the way through, and then I’ll start thinking about Wimbledon and the Olympics. It’s going to be interesting to see how the grass will recover in three weeks. I had the privilege of being part of the Beijing Olympics in 2008 and won a bronze medal for my country.

IMO, he is a lock for all three. He will win the French, the Gold, as well as defend SW19.