How many titles will Federer win in 2012? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

How many titles will Federer win in 2012?

sexybeast
03-19-2012, 09:57 AM
Federer seems to be on the path to win more titles since 2007 when he won 8 titles, since then he has not won more than 4/5 titles every year and usually he begins this time of the year with 0 or 1 title, now he got 3 titles already.

So, how many you think he is going to get?

My take on things with odds looking at his schedule:

Miami Here he should have as good chanse as any other top 4, maybe 20-25% to win.

Madrid Suits him perfectly, he could even beat Nadal here. A good shot to win this title, only Nadal seems to be able to beat him. 25%

Rome Maybe the tournament where he is least favorite, Djokovic loves this one and Nadal should have his numbers here aswell. 10-15%

RG If he is seeded nr2 and somehow gets in the other half without Nadal/Djokovic, he will be red hot in this tournament, however odds are against him if he was to play Nadal. 15%

Halle Greater chanse that he wont play this tournament than chanse to lose here, 85% if he plays here and 30% chanse he wont play here (if he plays RG final).

Wimbledon Is the favorite together with Nadal, only Nadal and some redhot power player can beat him here. 35%

Olympics in best of 3 set format on new grass should make him the favorite. 45%

Canada Maybe wont play this one, would be smart to save energy for Usopen if he gets alot of play during summer. 20% that he can win this one (taking into account chanse that he might withdraw)

Cincinatti His favorite outdoor hardcourt tournament together with Dubai, obviously favorite here and should beat Nadal/Djokovic/Murray on these ultra fast courts, I give him 50% to win here.

Usopen It is pretty much between Federer and Djokovic here, Del Potro is no longer a danger for Federer and I cant see Nadal beating him on these low bouncing fast courts (unless he plays like 2010). I give him 40% odds.

Shanghai Here Murray is king, but no reason why Federer cant win this one. A bit slower than indoor, still I give him 25%.

Basel This one is in the bag, 80%.

Paris Might withdraw because of new schedule when this one is in the week between Basel and TMC. 25% taking into consideration withdraw possibility/fatigue

TMC Redhot favorite, who can challenge him here? Maybe Murray, 60% chanse to win the TMC once again, specially if the nr1 ranking depends on this one.


So a pretty conservative estimate is that he should win about 2 tournaments in indoor season (Basel+TMC), 2-3 between Halle-Usopen (Halle+Wimbledon/Usopen/Olympics/Cincinatti) and everything else is a bonus.

I would say he has a great chanse to win 8 titles this year like in 2007 and thereby beat Mcenroe's 77 titles. Give your say, how many will he win by the end of the year?

Chase Visa
03-19-2012, 11:01 AM
8 - his current ones plus Halle, Cincy, Olympics, Basel and the WTF.

sexybeast
03-19-2012, 11:07 AM
8 - his current ones plus Halle, Cincy, Olympics, Basel and the WTF.

You really think Federer cant get one of Wimby/Usopen in this form and Djokovic downgraded to 1.5 form?

I think Federer is going to win the Halle-Wimby-Olympics grass hattrick but be tired and lose in Cincy.

green25814
03-19-2012, 11:38 AM
Federer is winning either Wimbledon or US open this year. Count on it.

TigerTim
03-19-2012, 12:07 PM
6, current one's plus Halle, Basel, Olympics

Looner
03-19-2012, 12:16 PM
Voted 6. I am hoping for a Slam somewhere in there. 3 current + the Grass Slam would be nice :).

Ashlar77
03-19-2012, 12:18 PM
I'd say at least 8.

reery
03-19-2012, 12:21 PM
8 titles including Wimbledon.

Li Ching Yuen
03-19-2012, 12:26 PM
Great chanses.

Mystique
03-19-2012, 12:34 PM
I think the odds of Federer having his best title haul since 2007 are looking very good indeed. Since '07 he has had 4, 4, 5, 4 titles per year through '08 to '11. Three already this year, and well even if he has a stinker from now to the US Open, who is going to beat the guy with a roof over his head? He will be huge favourite for Basel and WTF anyway, and I doubt he will play Paris-Bercy :sad:

Anyway, I dont think he will mess up the summer stretch this time around, there seems to be greater motivation and spring in him this year. As long as he doesnt get any injuries and health issues, I can see him realistically nabbing 6-7 titles this year.
Honestly from my point of view, 1 slam (preferably Wimbledon), Olympics and Basel will make this a fabulous year! I will take that. And hopefully getting to Number 1 at some point and giving SetSampras the final push over the cliff ;)

Johnbert
03-19-2012, 12:42 PM
current 3 + wimbledon, cincy, basel and wtf. so 7. maybe he can snatch a clay-title too (madrid).

BlueSwan
03-19-2012, 12:47 PM
No slams.
One more masters. Either Cincy, Shanghai or Paris.
Either the Olympics or the WTF
Halle and Basel

With the 3 he has already that should amount to 7 titles. I would trade them all for another slam though.

Purple Rainbow
03-19-2012, 01:02 PM
Last year he had a title drought from Doha to Basel.
Who would've thought after the US Open that Federer would proceed to win 6 of the next 8 tournaments he'd play?

Predictions are pretty pointless, but I'll say he will win 4 more.

I'll rank the tournaments in order I'd like him to win:

Wimbledon (would be absloutely brilliant!)
Roland Garros
US Open
Rome (because he hasn't won it yet)
Olympics
WTF
other Masters
Halle/Basel

Art&Soul
03-19-2012, 01:07 PM
9 including Wimbledon

Imperfect Angel
03-19-2012, 01:25 PM
5 titles. One on grass, another on US hardcourt.

FedvsNole
03-20-2012, 04:06 PM
He's played great but really needs to save himself for the grass season. Focus on halle and getting a another win over nadal there will give him even more confidence against nadal if they meet at wimbledon. He just needs to stay sharp through the quarterfinals of wimbledon. He would probably love to avoid tsonga/berdych in the quarters their but even tsonga he's really taken care of since that loss. If he's into the semis and playing nole, I think he'll love to be in that position.

He kinda has ditched the slice backhand since the belluci match and is just hitting over it hard. Seems to be giving opponenets less chances.

Arkulari
03-20-2012, 06:44 PM
7 or 8 are possible, count Halle, Cincy, Basel, WTF and possibly Wimbledon/OG or US Open.

Saberq
03-20-2012, 06:49 PM
Fed wont win a Slam this year and here's why......Rafa will play RG and W final for sure...he wont beat him there .......maybe US Open if he avoids Rafa but then he has to beat Novak and that's 50-50

Arkulari
03-20-2012, 07:08 PM
I retire my words, Reed just jinxed him so he won't win a single title for the rest of the year :o

Roamed
03-20-2012, 07:21 PM
I was thinking 6-7, maybe 6 on the safe side, with him adding Olympics, Basel, Halle, and possibly Shanghai or Cincy or somewhere.

But like Arkulari, my hopes have been dashed by the curse of Reed... 3 it is :bigcry:

ballbasher101
03-20-2012, 07:26 PM
I was hoping the mighty Swiss might sneak a major this year but now that Simon Reed has spoken it is looking bleak.

sexybeast
03-20-2012, 08:00 PM
Reed can rejinx his statement, if Federer will have a bad claycourt season Reed will pendle like a jojo back to saying Federer is finished just before grass season.

Tennis-Life
03-20-2012, 08:09 PM
from now on only 3 :( :banghead:

FedvsNole
03-20-2012, 08:11 PM
Fed wont win a Slam this year and here's why......Rafa will play RG and W final for sure...he wont beat him there .......maybe US Open if he avoids Rafa but then he has to beat Novak and that's 50-50


This being said. Federer will have the number 2 rank soon enough and if he gets it by roland garros could hold it for the rest of the year. You'd have to think at one of the 3 slams left nole and rafa will get drawn together.

I realize that the french will not put nole-rafa in the same half. But with federer playing and beating nadal maybe they'll want them in separate halves who knows since nole-rafa matches are one sided beatings by nole. Remember this is all relative. Im not delusion and think rogers going to beat rafa on clay but people outside tennis don't know shit and just think of the most recent thing to occur thus you get more ratings = money.


rememember its all about $$$$. All this talk about fed's resurgence generates more $$ and a final between rafa and fed now is probably more profitable for tv/ITF/ host event if fed continues his little run here it doesn't matter that the outcome is likely nadal's they may still want it this way with fed in the news so much winning titles.

The more losses nadal gets to nole before roland garros the more likely they'll be drawn together. Let's see what happens. It'll all come down to fed gettting number 2.

Federer_28
03-20-2012, 08:21 PM
Fed wont win a Slam this year and here's why......Rafa will play RG and W final for sure...he wont beat him there .......maybe US Open if he avoids Rafa but then he has to beat Novak and that's 50-50

ok, so does that dosen't really answer the question to this thread

Sunset of Age
03-20-2012, 08:27 PM
As quircky as it sounds, he's already come close to my expectations for this year. Or rather - surpassed them.

Well perhaps one or two more, hopefully biggies.

finishingmove
03-20-2012, 08:40 PM
he could win 2 more indoor events, don't see him winning more

ballbasher101
03-20-2012, 08:44 PM
Reed can rejinx his statement, if Federer will have a bad claycourt season Reed will pendle like a jojo back to saying Federer is finished just before grass season.


We can only hope Reed makes a u-turn. He has done enough damage to Federer this year. He said Federer was going win the OZ open, we all know what happened there.

masterclass
03-20-2012, 11:19 PM
From the 100 titles thread:

If Federer keeps playing like this, it wouldn't be too far a stretch for him to get to 80 by the end of the year:

Current: Career - 73, 2012 - 3

Clay season: 1 win - Madrid,
Grass season: 2 wins during the grass season (any combination of Halle, Wimbledon and the Olympics)
US Open Hard Court season: 1 win (Toronto, Cincinnati, US Open),
Indoor season: 3 wins. Basel, WTF and 1 other

If he does that, he'll have 80 total and 10 tournaments during 2012.
Tough, but possible.

Then it means he needs to average 5 titles a year for 4 years or 4 for 5 years.
With his style of play and his love for the game, playing til 35-36 years old is not a stretch either.

Even though I see 10 as possible, a couple less might be more realistic, 1 less grass, and maybe 0 clay, or 1 less indoor. Still, IF he wins Wimbledon and/or the Olympics, who here would bet against him at the US Open? His confidence would be sky-high. That's why I think his primary focus this year is the grass season. In fact, I have a feeling that whichever of the top 3 players wins Wimbledon will be the #1 player this year.

He could also sneak in a 250 tournament here or there as well, if healthy and not too tired. Past the clay season, nothing would surprise me if he continues as he has been winning his last 39 out of 41 matches. That's a lot of confidence and that's a difference when it comes to winning in big tight situations. Of course he is not playing in a vacuum. The other top players will be going all out as well, Djokovic has to make a stand somewhere, and Nadal taking his 7th Roland Garros title would have to propel him forward. Promising lower ranked players like John Isner may also spoil Federer's party. But as we saw last year with Mr. Djokovic, sometimes when a top player is full of steam, he can be tough to derail.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Saberq
03-20-2012, 11:35 PM
ok, so does that dosen't really answer the question to this thread

2-4 more you happy?

hipolymer
03-21-2012, 12:09 AM
From the 100 titles thread:

If Federer keeps playing like this, it wouldn't be too far a stretch for him to get to 80 by the end of the year:

Current: Career - 73, 2012 - 3

Clay season: 1 win - Madrid,
Grass season: 2 wins during the grass season (any combination of Halle, Wimbledon and the Olympics)
US Open Hard Court season: 1 win (Toronto, Cincinnati, US Open),
Indoor season: 3 wins. Basel, WTF and 1 other

If he does that, he'll have 80 total and 10 tournaments during 2012.
Tough, but possible.

Then it means he needs to average 5 titles a year for 4 years or 4 for 5 years.
With his style of play and his love for the game, playing til 35-36 years old is not a stretch either.

Even though I see 10 as possible, a couple less might be more realistic, 1 less grass, and maybe 0 clay, or 1 less indoor. Still, IF he wins Wimbledon and/or the Olympics, who here would bet against him at the US Open? His confidence would be sky-high. That's why I think his primary focus this year is the grass season. In fact, I have a feeling that whichever of the top 3 players wins Wimbledon will be the #1 player this year.

He could also sneak in a 250 tournament here or there as well, if healthy and not too tired. Past the clay season, nothing would surprise me if he continues as he has been winning his last 39 out of 41 matches. That's a lot of confidence and that's a difference when it comes to winning in big tight situations. Of course he is not playing in a vacuum. The other top players will be going all out as well, Djokovic has to make a stand somewhere, and Nadal taking his 7th Roland Garros title would have to propel him forward. Promising lower ranked players like John Isner may also spoil Federer's party. But as we saw last year with Mr. Djokovic, sometimes when a top player is full of steam, he can be tough to derail.

Respectfully,
masterclass

and people say Nadal fans are delusional.

:rolleyes:

Saberq
03-21-2012, 12:18 AM
masterclass is known Fedatard pretending to be objective...

FedvsNole
03-21-2012, 12:28 AM
and people say Nadal fans are delusional.

:rolleyes:


Would have been almost as delusional to think he would win dubai which was STACKED with every top ten player except nadal but he won. Was even more unlikely he'd win indian wells. Then he got the flu and almost withdrew from the tournament. And then he was going to play nadal in windy conditions. If anyone had said he'd win either of those tournaments forget them being delusional they would probably be deemed borderline Insane.

And I for one don't see federer getting to the finals of miami. Maybe he'll make it to the semis but nole will get him. Though its rumored the conditions in miami are much much faster than last year and lower bouncing. Too much of an ask for fed to think he'd get deep in this tournment. I dont know physically if he'll be ready to go by saturday with how much he's played, traveled, and been ill and all. It'll be great for him to reach and defend his semis points but thats all to be asked. A big bonus if nadal gets knocked out before the semis losing 400 points would be great for the game.


watching nadal play tennis is a disgrace to the sport. Was watching random clips of tennis matches of fed and nadal from 2005-2007 and my friend who is big time into working out but knows little about tennis pointed out how come nadal looks so "jacked" in these videos 5-6 years ago he must be old now because he doesn't look as muscular in the match you just made me watch (referring to indian wells 2012). When I told him he's 25 now and the videos of him before were of him being 18-20 they smiled and said guess the guy really ate his "vegetables" back then.

masterclass
03-21-2012, 01:27 PM
and people say Nadal fans are delusional.

:rolleyes:
I suppose delusional can be in the eye of the beholder...:)
Is this from the same Djokovic fan who predicted Djokovic would defend all his titles and more this year in the Djokovic defend number of titles thread? That would have been a monumental accomplishment indeed. I don't think anyone in the history of the open era has managed to defend so many titles the next year. Federer had 7 in one year. Remarkably in 2007, he became the first and still only player in history to defend 3 or more majors, with only Marit Safin's 2005 AO win preventing Federer from defending 3 majors 3 times successively (2005-2007). It's off topic, but some may find these title defense stats interesting, others may not care:

Majors, Year End Championships (YEC), Masters, 500's, 250's.

Novak Djokovic:
Number of Titles: 29
Different Tournaments Won: 19
Tournaments Defended: 3 (Beijing, Dubai, AO) -- Has so far defended only on Hard courts
# Times Titles Defended: 4 (once at Beijing, once at the AO, twice at Dubai)
Max Titles Defended in 1 year: 2 ( 2010 - Beijing, Dubai)

Rafael Nadal:
Number of Titles:46
DifferentTournaments Won: 21
Tournaments Defended: 4 (Barcelona, Monte Carlo, Rome, RG) -- Has so far defended only on clay courts
# Times Titles Defended: 17 (3 at Rome, 4 at Barcelona and RG, 6 at Monte Carlo)
Max Titles Defended in 1 year: 4 (2006, 2007, Barcelona, Monte Carlo, Rome, RG)


Roger Federer:
Number of Titles: 73
Different Tournaments Won: 27
Tournaments Defended: 14 (Vienna, Halle, Bangkok, Doha, Basel, Dubai, Hamburg, Miami, Cincinnati, IW, YEC, AO, Wimbledon, USO) -- Has defended on all surfaces
# Times Titles Defended: 28 (once at Vienna, Bangkok, Doha, Hamburg, Cincy, Miami, AO, twice at Dubai and IW, 3 at Halle, Basel, and YEC, 4 at Wimbledon and USO).
Max Titles Defended in 1 year: 7 (2005 - Bangkok, USO, Wimbledon, Halle, Hamburg, Miami, IW, Dubai)

You see, it's not easy to predict things. There are so many variables. The margins are small among the top players, even a change in weather can affect the outcome (My IW draw prediction of Nadal over Federer went astray mostly due to that, I believe). On the other hand, I believe I was one of the few that predicted Isner would beat Djokovic at IW. All one can do is to choose and weigh certain factors and make an educated guess and then get lucky.;)

Since this is a thread about Mr. Federer, it's reasonable to focus on Federer. I made a prediction where his most recent form was a heavy factor and prerequisite as stated at the beginning. One also has to look at the overall history of the player, i.e. has he shown the capability. Obviously, if his current good form fails substantially for whatever reason, the prediction that follows will be junk. So based on that recent form, I gave what I thought to be an unbiased opinion of what I thought he might do. I see nothing in my prediction that is far-fetched. He won more than 10 titles each year between 2004-2006. This year is the first since 2006 where he has won 3 titles prior to Miami. I didn't put reasons for each predicted win, as I thought that would lengthen the post substantially. I would love to hear your opinion on where you differ from my prediction (and the why if you would like). I would welcome, encourage, and respect that type of response.

If you read to the end, I also state that I think 2 fewer wins than what I listed in the original prediction might be more realistic, and I even mentioned the other players like Mr. Djokovic, Mr. Nadal, Mr. Isner, who will be fighting hard, or anyone else that might get hot and change the circumstances.

Anyway, if anyone thinks I'm way off the mark here, you are entitled to your opinion. After all it's just a prediction thread, and since no one has a working crystal ball, we will only know who came closest after the year ends. :)

Respectfully,
masterclass

Mystique
03-21-2012, 01:32 PM
Hey masterclass, you should be paid for your posts on MTF dude ;)

sexybeast
03-21-2012, 01:39 PM
and people say Nadal fans are delusional.

:rolleyes:

Only Madrid is kind of a stretch of the imagination, but then again Federer can just as well win Miami. Halle +Wimbledon/Olympics is not that difficult to imagine, neither Cincinatti/Usopen or 3 indoor titles (even if I think he will settle with 2 indoor titles this year).

10 is far from impossible, but I think 8 is more likely.

masterclass
03-21-2012, 02:11 PM
Only Madrid is kind of a stretch of the imagination, but then again Federer can just as well win Miami. Halle +Wimbledon/Olympics is not that difficult to imagine, neither Cincinatti/Usopen or 3 indoor titles (even if I think he will settle with 2 indoor titles this year).

10 is far from impossible, but I think 8 is more likely.

Agreed. Based on his schedule I see:
Maximum: 11 (the ones I included, + a sweep on grass, or additional hard court)
Minimum: 6 (he should take at least 1 grass tourney, and 2 indoors)

So 8 would be a good average. Obviously, the more he can unexpectedly win (like IW), the more chance he has to get a larger number.

For Federer, a lot rides on his grass season. 2 wins there will keep his confidence very high, and than as I said, I wouldn't bet against him at the US Open and the rest of the year. But if he fails to win either Wimbledon or the Olympics, then we might see a drop in confidence, and his numbers will be lower.
For Nadal, a lot rides on his clay season, and especially RG.
I think Djokovic must win in Miami to gain some mojo prior to the clay season, and the US Hard Court season becomes ultra important to him to hang onto his #1.
Murray has to win something soon. He can't wait till the indoors.
It will be interesting to see if John Isner can continue advancing through the ranks, and if players like Del Potro and Tsonga can take it to the next level, or not.
This looks to be a fascinating year.

Respectfully,
masterclass

reery
03-21-2012, 05:38 PM
In fact, I have a feeling that whichever of the top 3 players wins Wimbledon will be the #1 player this year.


That's been the trend since 2004.

Most likely candidate will be Federer.

Djokovic's Wimbledon win was his first title on grass ever and the only players before Djokovic to win their first grass title at Wimbledon in the past 35 years were Agassi and Stich. Neither won a second Wimbledon. Doubt Djokovic will win a second Wimbledon this year or maybe ever again. He was lucky to avoid Federer.

Djokovic had a cream puff draw at Wimbledon last year. Playing all his beetches.

If he met Federer or Murray, he would not have won Wimbledon.

The only way Djokovic wins Wimbledon this year is if he avoids Federer and Murray.

Winning percentage on grass. (where's Djokovic?)

1. Roger Federer 87.18 102–15
2. John McEnroe 85.61 119–20
3. Björn Borg 84.72 61–11
4. Jimmy Connors 84.00 168-32
5. Pete Sampras 83.47 101–20
6. Rafael Nadal 82.76 48–10
7. Boris Becker 82.27 116–25
8. Andy Roddick 80.41 78–19
9. Andy Murray 80.33 49–12
10. Stefan Edberg 78.57 99–27

minimum 40 wins

Nadal has not won a title off clay since 2010, seems like he will only be winning titles on clay nowadays.

Maybe a Federer-Murray Wimbledon final could happen this year.

Saberq
03-21-2012, 05:51 PM
That's been the trend since 2004.

Most likely candidate will be Federer.

Djokovic's Wimbledon win was his first title on grass ever and the only players before Djokovic to win their first grass title at Wimbledon in the past 35 years were Agassi and Stich. Neither won a second Wimbledon. Doubt Djokovic will win a second Wimbledon this year or maybe ever again. He was lucky to avoid Federer.

Djokovic had a cream puff draw at Wimbledon last year. Playing all his beetches.

If he met Federer or Murray, he would not have won Wimbledon.

The only way Djokovic wins Wimbledon this year is if he avoids Federer and Murray.

Winning percentage on grass. (where's Djokovic?)

1. Roger Federer 87.18 102–15
2. John McEnroe 85.61 119–20
3. Björn Borg 84.72 61–11
4. Jimmy Connors 84.00 168-32
5. Pete Sampras 83.47 101–20
6. Rafael Nadal 82.76 48–10
7. Boris Becker 82.27 116–25
8. Andy Roddick 80.41 78–19
9. Andy Murray 80.33 49–12
10. Stefan Edberg 78.57 99–27

minimum 40 wins

Nadal has not won a title off clay since 2010, seems like he will only be winning titles on clay nowadays.

Maybe a Federer-Murray Wimbledon final could happen this year.

and you know that how?Why would Fed beat Novak on grass if the grass is so slow as clay as Fedtards say all the time..........Novak played Tsonga a tough match up for Novak and Nadal whom he has never beaten in a GS match on his worst surface..........show some respect.....Murray is a GS mug I dont count him

reery
03-21-2012, 05:55 PM
and you know that how?Why would Fed beat Novak on grass if the grass is so slow as clay as Fedtards say all the time..........Novak played Tsonga a tough match up for Novak and Nadal whom he has never beaten in a GS match on his worst surface..........show some respect.....Murray is a GS mug I dont count him

Nole is average on grass. Top 10 Winning percentage on grass. He's not even there. Even Murray is there. Federer, Nadal, Roddick are there as well.

buzz
03-21-2012, 06:00 PM
That's been the trend since 2004.

Most likely candidate will be Federer.

Djokovic's Wimbledon win was his first title on grass ever and the only players before Djokovic to win their first grass title at Wimbledon in the past 35 years were Agassi and Stich. Neither won a second Wimbledon. Doubt Djokovic will win a second Wimbledon this year or maybe ever again. He was lucky to avoid Federer.

Djokovic had a cream puff draw at Wimbledon last year. Playing all his beetches.

If he met Federer or Murray, he would not have won Wimbledon.

The only way Djokovic wins Wimbledon this year is if he avoids Federer and Murray.

Winning percentage on grass. (where's Djokovic?)

1. Roger Federer 87.18 102–15
2. John McEnroe 85.61 119–20
3. Björn Borg 84.72 61–11
4. Jimmy Connors 84.00 168-32
5. Pete Sampras 83.47 101–20
6. Rafael Nadal 82.76 48–10
7. Boris Becker 82.27 116–25
8. Andy Roddick 80.41 78–19
9. Andy Murray 80.33 49–12
10. Stefan Edberg 78.57 99–27

minimum 40 wins

Nadal has not won a title off clay since 2010, seems like he will only be winning titles on clay nowadays.

Maybe a Federer-Murray Wimbledon final could happen this year.
For me Nadal is as big of a favorite at Wimbledon as Federer. He is better on grass than on hard. Only if Nadal really fucks up this clay season I lose my grass faith in him. That is losing to other players than Djokovic on clay.

FedvsNole
03-21-2012, 06:21 PM
I'd rather be more conservative on my picks for how many titles he will get. He's at 3 right now.

Halle: He's always made it to the finals when he's played i beleive and lost only once when out of form so i'd say this is a YES even if he plays nadal here since it won't be grass thats playing like clay from all the abuse.

Basel: Obviously i'd like his chances. The other guys are always dead by this time of year so it just makes his chances even greater.

WTF: He's 10-0 the last two years there and is playing better right now than he was when he last won it. Again, top players some of which will be tired/injured and others who will play percy-bercy will have even less chance. Fed will be smart and skip paris bercy and likely shine here where not even nadal can hurt him with the low bounce, indoor conditions.

So that's 6 titles most likely that favor him as their all fast conditions or low bouncing.

The other significant factor is if the number 2 rank becomes federer's even the chance to nab 1 title in the clay season becomes DRASTICALLY higher due to nadal and nole being drawn together even just one time in either Monte Carlo, Madrid, ROME, Roland garros. Other than the slams, the other matches play semi's and finals consecutive days and we saw fed beat nadal in madrid after nole and him went for 3-4 hrs the day before. Would have to like fed's chances especially against a nole in the final of any of those if he has had a grueling 3-4 hrs match against nadal the day before.


Aside from all that, fed will have big chances at best of 3 set tournaments like olympics, Rogers Cup, and Cinci.

So 6 titles at a minimum I think thats fair to say. His goal should be to get and KEEP the number 2 rank as that is what his slam chances will dramatically increase in not getting nadal in his half at least once in the next 3 slams. Thank god he's done with davis cup. let that be a goal next year and this way he's not going to australia days after a major.

FedvsNole
03-21-2012, 06:33 PM
and you know that how?Why would Fed beat Novak on grass if the grass is so slow as clay as Fedtards say all the time..........Novak played Tsonga a tough match up for Novak and Nadal whom he has never beaten in a GS match on his worst surface..........show some respect.....Murray is a GS mug I dont count him

Nole can't defend on grass as well as he does other places. He can't slide as well and its harder to push off from corner to corner like you can do easily on cement. Fed's backhand slice and volleys becomes more deadly along with dropshots as other than the baseline the rest of the court is still plush grass and it bounces and skids lower to nole's backhand side that any other surface. The biggest factor is that grass matches are shorter, less tiring, and require much less endurance than any other surface which helps federer last in a longer match.

Fed just has to make it to the semis and try and avoid clownga, berdych. Although, i feel federer's returning has improved big time since the tsonga match at wimbledon. He's not only getting back more first serves into play he's actually mixing up his returns with slices and backhand drives rather than monotonous slices over and over. Im not the only one who's seen that fed is actually converting break points now better than in a long ass time, and he's owned tsonga since so mentally i think he'll be ok. Fed's also improved his focus and is winning these tight matches that he was regularly losing before. That davydenko match was a bit of turning point I think that's made him have this huge run and he seems to be unaffected when losing the first set anymore.

arm
03-21-2012, 06:47 PM
Would have been almost as delusional to think he would win dubai which was STACKED with every top ten player except nadal but he won.

I don't see how Roger winning Dubai is "almost as delusional" as winning 7 more tournaments that pretty much all top10 players will play too. :scratch:

Saberq
03-21-2012, 06:51 PM
Nole is average on grass. Top 10 Winning percentage on grass. He's not even there. Even Murray is there. Federer, Nadal, Roddick are there as well.

he is not average on grass LOL.........he won the fucking Wimbledon he can play on grass just not as effective as on hard and clay.....

FedvsNole
03-21-2012, 07:13 PM
I don't see how Roger winning Dubai is "almost as delusional" as winning 7 more tournaments that pretty much all top10 players will play too. :scratch:

I never said 7 more. Aside from rotterdamn, 5/6 tournaments fed has won in the last 3-4 months has had almost all top 10 players there.

1.Basel: 5 top ten players in draw, including 3/4 of the BIG 4

2.Paris: 8 top ten players in draw, including 3/4 of the BIG 4

3.WTF : All top 8 ranked players, including 4/4 of the big 4

4. Rotterdam: 3 top ten players

5. Dubai: 8 top ten players, including 3/4 of the big 4

6. Indian wells: all players ranked 1-20 in draw, inclduing all 4/4 of the big 4


So it's not like he's had cakewalk tournaments. All the top guys have been at all of them besides rotterdam where fed would have beaten almost anymore on the indoor court anyways. Got a brutal draw in indian wells. On top of that he was ill. Had to go through nadal on windy conditions. Was his third tournament in a row. He's gone through a lot of crap and its time he got some credit. While he hasn't got a slam these are the types of runs leading into a slam that give you confidence when you get there. Looks like he learned something from his aussie match with nadal. Kept pounding his backhand on all the big points and won the vast majority. He also finally approached soley on the backhand side and won a ton of the points. If he keep that strategy up, he'll win more against the guy. And once federer has confidence he's tough for anyone. I mean who the hell would have thought he'd have any chance at number 1 and look how close he is. He's about to take over number 2 and has chances to get to number 2 over a healhty nole and rafa.


Give the man his props. He's almost 31, has 500 million dollars + in the bank. Dunno about you but if i were him i'd be chilling for the rest of my life.
Actually, 99.9% of people probabaly would have called it a day for the amount of money and records he has. Be thankful he's still on tour otherwise it would be just nadal and nole moonballing for 6 hrs and nole would just keep winning.

sexybeast
05-13-2012, 05:49 PM
4 tournaments half way into clay season.

There is a real possibility Federer will play 3 grasscourt titles this year for the first time ever. If he wins 2 grasscourt titles and 2 indoor titles he got 8 titles this year. So that might be a conservative estimate by now.

However, Rome and RG will be really, really hard.

BauerAlmeida
05-13-2012, 06:21 PM
Halle, Wimbledon, Cincinatti, Basel, Shangai and WTF.

Arkin
05-13-2012, 06:30 PM
Halle, Wimbledon, Cincinatti, Basel, Shangai and WTF.

it's very unlikely he'll play shaghai
no olympics? :(

Mystique
05-13-2012, 06:45 PM
Last time Roger won 4 titles before FO was way back in 2006 :eek: (And he won 12 titles overall that year :D)

Olderer :worship:

nick the greek
05-13-2012, 06:58 PM
Fed will win everything now including all the slams.It's a lock.

Looner
05-13-2012, 07:18 PM
Fed will win everything now including all the slams.It's a lock.

Do you not have other urgent matters to attend to in Greece than writing about Mr Federer?

Johnbert
05-13-2012, 07:33 PM
wimby or olympic, cincy, basel and wtf. so 8 at the end.

Roamed
05-13-2012, 08:03 PM
So far: Rotterdam, Dubai, Indian Wells, Madrid
Conservative estimate for the future: Halle, Cincy, Basel, plus one of the big ones, fingers crossed

I'm revising my earlier prediction of 6 to 'at least 7' hopefully :)

duarte_a
05-13-2012, 08:10 PM
Do you not have other urgent matters to attend to in Greece than writing about Mr Federer?

Ouch!!!

Fujee
05-13-2012, 08:30 PM
Do you not have other urgent matters to attend to in Greece than writing about Mr Federer?

:lol: zzzzzzzzzzzzing!

zdravkelja
05-13-2012, 08:57 PM
^ :worship:


He will win at least 5 more, and 2 will be GS's or GS+Olympics

nick the greek
05-13-2012, 11:25 PM
Do you not have other urgent matters to attend to in Greece than writing about Mr Federer?
Sorry buddy but I don't even want to start discussing that with you.It would be like discussing the merits (or dangers) of engineered crops with a chimpanzee,he has no clue whatsoever, he only knows that bananas exist and he likes them mushy.

Looner
05-13-2012, 11:27 PM
Sorry buddy but I don't even want to start discussing that with you.It would be like discussing the merits (or dangers) of engineered crops with a chimpanzee,he has no clue whatsoever, he only knows that bananas exist and he likes them mushy.

I see that your personal issues are far greater than those of your country. I am truly sorry for you :sad: :angel:

nick the greek
05-13-2012, 11:35 PM
I see that your personal issues are far greater than those of your country. I am truly sorry for you :sad: :angel:
Thanks to the NHS you can get your pills really cheap.Now,c'mon son take one and go to sleep.

Arakasi
05-14-2012, 03:31 AM
Do you not have other urgent matters to attend to in Greece than writing about Mr Federer?

:haha: :worship:

Topspindoctor
05-14-2012, 03:52 AM
Do you not have other urgent matters to attend to in Greece than writing about Mr Federer?

You are making fun of other countries economy while living in Britain? :superlol:

Arkulari
05-14-2012, 03:56 AM
I think he has a great shot to either Wimbledon or USO + Basel + WTF, so it might be around 7-8 titles :)

Lestat
05-14-2012, 03:57 AM
You are making fun of other countries economy while living in Britain? :superlol:

finally a smart non-hate reply from you :worship: whats next? the pig being aggresive? :haha:

duchuy89
05-14-2012, 04:37 AM
8 titles including Wimbledon.

No no, Nadal will win Wimbledon.

NYCtennisfan
05-14-2012, 05:34 AM
Federer winning many more tournaments this season would go against pretty much all historical trends. In the TMS era, i.e., 1990 and after, only Agassi has won 5 tournaments in a season after turning 30. He also won 4 tournaments in two different seasons after turning 30. Federer is at 4 this year, tied for the second most in a season in the TMS era. He can do it, but it's going to be a lot harder than many are thinking right now.

hisham70
05-14-2012, 05:34 AM
One thing for sure, he'll win the ATP Year-End Championship.

reery
05-14-2012, 04:52 PM
8 titles including Wimbledon.

Sticking with this.

No no, Nadal will win Wimbledon.

Negative.

He can't win off clay anymore.

The years he won Wimbledon in 2008 and 2010 he at least had won something off clay the previous season. The trend points out to him only winning on clay from now on. Decline.

liverpoolshivank
05-14-2012, 05:24 PM
8+

Paylu2007
05-14-2012, 05:37 PM
current 3 + wimbledon, cincy, basel and wtf. so 7. maybe he can snatch a clay-title too (madrid).

He did :D

TigerTim
05-14-2012, 05:54 PM
You are making fun of other countries economy while living in Britain? :superlol:

The Cameron plan to cut our way out of recession is working - we achieved 0% growth last quarter!

nick the greek
05-14-2012, 06:04 PM
No no, Nadal will win Wimbledon.
No dude,Fed will win it.

Looner
05-14-2012, 06:07 PM
You are making fun of other countries economy while living in Britain? :superlol:

Dude, I aim to move to Asia. In general, the world economy is screwed. And I was not making fun, just trying to get the guy to stfu and stay on topic.

nick the greek
05-14-2012, 06:10 PM
Dude, I aim to move to Asia. In general, the world economy is screwed. And I was not making fun, just trying to get the guy to stfu and stay on topic.
How was I off topic?And why don't you STFU?