WWW Vienna R1: Thiem [WC] vs Muster [WC] [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

WWW Vienna R1: Thiem [WC] vs Muster [WC]

_Chaz
10-22-2011, 12:16 PM
What a coincidence :D :rolleyes:
Austria's biggest hope for the future against Grandpa Muster, interesting match-up.

Thiem in 3.

Full draw:
http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2011/337/mds.pdf

LawrenceOfTennis
10-22-2011, 12:26 PM
Grandpa to beat youngster in 2 routine sets.

Eddy DoubleD
10-22-2011, 12:27 PM
Coincidence or...?

_Chaz
10-22-2011, 12:28 PM
Coincidence or...?

Didn't want to use the word you search for in the opening post ;)

nalbyfan
10-22-2011, 12:29 PM
Who is Thiem ?

alter ego
10-22-2011, 12:31 PM
I would like the ATP apologists (experts in the field of probability) to come here and say this draw wasn't fixed.

Chris Kuerten
10-22-2011, 12:34 PM
Muster got schooled by Krajicek and Haarhuis only two weeks ago.

But what an awesome draw :lol:. I hope he wins.

nole_no1
10-22-2011, 12:36 PM
You must be kidding me :spit: Muster in 3 :lol:

VolandriFan
10-22-2011, 12:50 PM
Let's get the Tennis Integrity Unit onto this one.

And while they're at it:
http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=191678

Hian-GOAT
10-22-2011, 12:56 PM
So fixed :facepalm:
Thiem to save the tour ONCE FOR ALL.
Muster is ridicolous, I'm starting to hate him. GO AWAY FROM TENNIS.

Hian-GOAT
10-22-2011, 12:56 PM
Fischer got a qualifier, too :spit:
Austria land of cheaters.

nalbyfan
10-22-2011, 12:57 PM
They should give Haas or Querrey WC instead of grandpa or unknown guy

Snowwy
10-22-2011, 01:16 PM
I would like the ATP apologists (experts in the field of probability) to come here and say this draw wasn't fixed.

I knew this thread would attract posters that have no concept of statistics or data management.

Li Ching Yuen
10-22-2011, 01:19 PM
I knew this thread would attract posters that have no concept of statistics or data management.

And I knew that that post would draw the attention of a statistics expert like yourself.

misty1
10-22-2011, 01:24 PM
this is hilarious

im picking thiem in 3..if the fact that he's playing more than likely one of his heroes doesnt get to his head

if it does muster will slaughter him

LawrenceOfTennis
10-22-2011, 01:27 PM
I would like the ATP apologists (experts in the field of probability) to come here and say this draw wasn't fixed.

This.

Sombrerero loco
10-22-2011, 02:21 PM
omg, both were so so lucky...and i think muster will win

UsD.AnDreS
10-22-2011, 02:34 PM
A career-defining match for both of the players. Yep.

Roamed
10-22-2011, 02:41 PM
I think Muster said he would retire properly after this tournament, so you can trust he's going to put in a bit of effort. Muster in 3.

Sonja1989
10-22-2011, 02:53 PM
:facepalm:

Dougie
10-22-2011, 04:28 PM
I think Muster said he would retire properly after this tournament, so you can trust he's going to put in a bit of effort. Muster in 3.

I hope he does. I remember watching his 1st round match at Vienna last year, it was cool to see the legend back in action, and he really wasn´t that bad. Now, a year has gone, his results have been pretty much as expected, and obviously he won´t improve much.
His "comeback" has been entertaining to watch, nothing wrong with it, but it´s time to give the WC´s to young talents or active players now. He´ll be more than welcomed at the Champion´s tour.

Mateya
10-22-2011, 07:46 PM
:superlol:

The winner of this match probably plays Davidenko. Do you imagine what an in-form Nikolay would make out of Muster? :tape:

misty1
10-22-2011, 07:49 PM
They should give Haas or Querrey WC instead of grandpa or unknown guy

thiem isnt some unkown loser

he has a bright future, easily austria's best youngster

Ibracadabra
10-22-2011, 08:19 PM
The better player on the day will win in either 2 or 3 sets i think.

Snowwy
10-22-2011, 08:21 PM
And I knew that that post would draw the attention of a statistics expert like yourself.

Isn't there a ~10% chance of WC vs WC? That's pretty significant to accuse fixing the draw when it happens.

alter ego
10-22-2011, 08:27 PM
I knew this thread would attract posters that have no concept of statistics or data management.

Voila... the first of many bookkeepers here on MTF who thinks Santa Claus exists because the law of probability says there's a chance.

nole_no1
10-22-2011, 08:34 PM
Fischer got a qualifier, too :spit:
Austria land of cheaters.

Not so good if he'll get Haas though :p

Sham Kay
10-22-2011, 09:36 PM
:superlol:

The winner of this match probably plays Davidenko. Do you imagine what an in-form Nikolay would make out of Muster? :tape:
In-form, out of form - either way I see two large bagels.

mooncreek
10-22-2011, 09:45 PM
Last year in this tournament, Muster lost to Haider-Maurer, a fellow Austrian. Haider-Maurer would go all the way to the final, losing to Melzer. Add that to the conspiracy.

Hopefully, this one will finally be Muster's last ATP match.

KaiserT
10-22-2011, 10:38 PM
:lol:

philosophicalarf
10-23-2011, 11:57 AM
Voila... the first of many bookkeepers here on MTF who thinks Santa Claus exists because the law of probability says there's a chance.

You've only actually got 12 R1 matches. I am as of yet insufficiently caffeinated to want to work out the probability, but it's going to be not unlikely.

Snowwy
10-23-2011, 02:06 PM
You've only actually got 12 R1 matches. I am as of yet insufficiently caffeinated to want to work out the probability, but it's going to be not unlikely.

I forgot there were only 12 matches. The probability is more than 10% then.

A random player has a 4 in 5 chance of not playing a seed in the first round.
A second random player has a 1 in 12 chance of playing the first random player in the first round.
There are 3 WCs that could play the first one.

Probability = 4/5 * 1/12 * 3 = 1/5 = 20%

There is a 20% chance of WC vs WC in the first round. This means that we should have a WC vs WC once in every 5 tournaments.

Feel free to correct me if I am wrong.

VIPer7
10-23-2011, 03:25 PM
so Thiem ranked 1897 plays Muster ranked 1073

Is this a record for the Main Draw on the ATP ???

Hehe that's some pretty high numbers. I'm quite sure that there's another record in this match-up: The age difference between these 2 players is almost 26 years! :eek:

Any ATP statistics guru who can confirm this?

LawrenceOfTennis
10-24-2011, 02:19 PM
LOL Thiem 26 years younger than Muster.
So. If Thiem lose this match he better retire now.

MaxPower
10-24-2011, 02:31 PM
I understand that Haas gets WCs. He deserves it and can do something. Muster? Getting kinda sad. Let him go through the qualies. Shouldn't encourage him anymore than necessary. He should play on the champions tour and even there I think his younger compatriots like Phillipousis, Moya, Enqvist would defeat him.

Certinfy
10-24-2011, 02:50 PM
How is Muster ranked outside the top 1000? Disgraceful! Guy should be top 100 for sure.

156mphserve
10-24-2011, 08:17 PM
I forgot there were only 12 matches. The probability is more than 10% then.

A random player has a 4 in 5 chance of not playing a seed in the first round.
A second random player has a 1 in 12 chance of playing the first random player in the first round.
There are 3 WCs that could play the first one.

Probability = 4/5 * 1/12 * 3 = 1/5 = 20%

There is a 20% chance of WC vs WC in the first round. This means that we should have a WC vs WC once in every 5 tournaments.

Feel free to correct me if I am wrong.

how does the 2nd player have a 1/12 chance of playing the first player?

The way I see it, there are 20 spots a WC could get put. 16 of these spots he'd face another non seed(4/5 you got that right)

there are then 19 spots another WC could get placed. 1 of these 19 spots he would face the first WC(1/19)

Then there are 3 possibly WC v. WC matches(got that right too)

4/5*1/19*3 = 12.63%

That's what I get

Snowwy
10-24-2011, 08:36 PM
how does the 2nd player have a 1/12 chance of playing the first player?

The way I see it, there are 20 spots a WC could get put. 16 of these spots he'd face another non seed(4/5 you got that right)

there are then 19 spots another WC could get placed. 1 of these 19 spots he would face the first WC(1/19)

Then there are 3 possibly WC v. WC matches(got that right too)

4/5*1/19*3 = 12.63%

That's what I get

Yeah, I think you are right. I don't even remember how I got 1/12 now. 12.63 is once in every 8 tournaments, still pretty often.

henke007
10-24-2011, 09:05 PM
Talk about a fixed DRAW, must be the worst 1st round in many years!!

n8
10-24-2011, 09:29 PM
how does the 2nd player have a 1/12 chance of playing the first player?

The way I see it, there are 20 spots a WC could get put. 16 of these spots he'd face another non seed(4/5 you got that right)

there are then 19 spots another WC could get placed. 1 of these 19 spots he would face the first WC(1/19)

Then there are 3 possibly WC v. WC matches(got that right too)

4/5*1/19*3 = 12.63%

That's what I get

I'm going to be really annoying and say that's incorrect. Let's say there are 15 WCs in the draw. Well, according to that formula, there is a 4/5*1/19*15 = 63.1% chance of two WCs playing each other first round.

But if you think about it, when there are 15 WCs, there should be a 100% chance of a WC v WC first round match. Even if 4 of those 15 WC get seeds, there are still 11 remaining for the last 16 spots so two must play each other.

The actual probability is extremely difficult to work out. 2 WCs is not difficult, but 3 or more is very difficult! I can't work it out myself, but it uses a combination of factorial and choose functions.

156mphserve
10-24-2011, 10:29 PM
I put the 3 there because there were 3 possible matchup, WC1 v. WC2, WC1 v. WC3, WC2 v. WC3. If there were 15 WC's there would be 120 possible matchups, WC1 v. WC2, WC1 v. WC3, WC1 v. WC4, ... , WC14 v. WC15. Put that in the formula and you get 505% chance of a WC v. WC matchup. The most amount of WC's without a WC v. WC match guarenteed is with 12 WC(4 could play the 5-8 seeds, leaving 8 WC's for 8 matches, 1 in each match). A closer look at that shows the number of possible WC v. WC matchups here is 78. That intpo the formula say there's a 328% chance of a WC v. WC match happening, but we know it's slightly less than 100%. The skewed results here is because multiple WC v. WC matchups in all the scenarios. The way the formula is it counts each possible WC matchup when in reality WC1 v. WC8 and WC4 v. WC11 will happen in the same scenario in various different scenarios. However when there are only 3 WC's as in my calculations above then the results cannot be skewed by multiple WC v. WC matchups as when 2 WC's are playing each other the other has to play a non WC. That's why I felt it was appropriate to multiply by 3 here but wouldn't be approiate to do so with 12 or 15 WC's

I think it's right, though when I did it, I felt a little bit of doubt that it might not be, I still feel like I'm not factoring something in, but nothing is coming to mind

156mphserve
10-24-2011, 10:44 PM
Working it out another way...

There are 20! combinations that the 20 non seeds can be placed.

There are 8 Non seed v. Non seed matchups. So there are 8 places that you can see a WC1 v. WC2 matchup, you can reverse the order that they get placed into the draw(i.e WC2 v. WC1) to give another 8 possibilities. So 16 places/orientations that WC1 can play WC2. Now when this occurs the other 18 non seeds(including the other WC can be placed wherever in whatever orientation you like, so 18! combinations for each matchup of WC1 v. WC2 and we know there are 16 ways they can matchup so 16(18!) is the combinations you can have where WC2. Similarly there are 16(18!) ways for WC1 to play WC3, and 16(18!) ways for WC2 to play WC3. so that gives 48(18!) combinations out of a possible 20! combinations that will see a WC v. WC matchup.

48*(18!)/(20!) = 48*(18!)/(20*19*(18!)) = 48/(20*19) = 48/380 = 12.63 % as calculated above:p

156mphserve
10-24-2011, 10:45 PM
anyway back to the thread topic, Thiem is winning this, he took a set off of Nieminen in Bangkok, he should beat Muster

n8
10-24-2011, 11:11 PM
Working it out another way...

There are 20! combinations that the 20 non seeds can be placed.

There are 8 Non seed v. Non seed matchups. So there are 8 places that you can see a WC1 v. WC2 matchup, you can reverse the order that they get placed into the draw(i.e WC2 v. WC1) to give another 8 possibilities. So 16 places/orientations that WC1 can play WC2. Now when this occurs the other 18 non seeds(including the other WC can be placed wherever in whatever orientation you like, so 18! combinations for each matchup of WC1 v. WC2 and we know there are 16 ways they can matchup so 16(18!) is the combinations you can have where WC2. Similarly there are 16(18!) ways for WC1 to play WC3, and 16(18!) ways for WC2 to play WC3. so that gives 48(18!) combinations out of a possible 20! combinations that will see a WC v. WC matchup.

48*(18!)/(20!) = 48*(18!)/(20*19*(18!)) = 48/(20*19) = 48/380 = 12.63 % as calculated above:p

You are good. Real good. :worship:

Thanks so much for explaining all that to me.

shoustar89
10-25-2011, 03:31 AM
Anyone lost to Muster should retire.