amirbachar

03-14-2011, 06:15 PM

Hello,

I have invented a new concept to rank players I call set importance.

I defined it as the difference between the probability of winning and losing assuming the match equal skill.

For example, in a best of 3 match, the first set worth 0.5, because assuming equal skill, the probability of winning after 1:0 is 3/4 the probability of winning after 0:1 is 1/4.

A 2-1 win factored score is 1.5-0.5 and scaling the sum to 3 make the score of the winner 9/4 and the score of the loser 3/4.

A 3-1 win after leading 2:0 factored score is 1.25-0.25 and after being tied 1-1 is 1.375-0.375.

Full rankings:

http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2011/03/adding-tiebreaks.html

Here are the top 50 according to the improved rankings I presented in:

http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=178619

Rankings Name Ratings

1 Rafael Nadal 12450.00

2 Roger Federer 10268.11

3 Novak Djokovic 6986.06

4 Andy Murray 6924.04

5 Robin Soderling 5799.09

6 David Nalbandian 4691.21

7 David Ferrer 4690.98

8 Stanislas Wawrinka 4508.57

9 Tomas Berdych 4486.67

10 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 4175.49

11 Andy Roddick 4008.97

12 Mikhail Youzhny 3744.26

13 Jurgen Melzer 3507.34

14 Fernando Verdasco 3451.65

15 Gael Monfils 3403.60

16 Mardy Fish 3250.56

17 Lleyton Hewitt 3191.76

18 Nikolay Davydenko 3127.59

19 Nicolas Almagro 3049.73

20 Ivo Karlovic 3006.61

21 Richard Gasquet 2967.20

22 Marin Cilic 2942.88

23 Viktor Troicki 2796.62

24 Philipp Kohlschreiber 2734.91

25 Marcos Baghdatis 2696.25

26 Ernests Gulbis 2605.16

27 Florian Mayer 2568.79

28 Samuel Querrey 2549.42

29 Juan Carlos Ferrero 2520.66

30 John Isner 2442.69

31 Ivan Ljubicic 2407.65

32 Michael Llodra 2362.03

33 Gilles Simon 2340.68

34 Albert Montanes 2300.04

35 Denis Istomin 2229.67

36 Julien Benneteau 2228.93

37 Thomaz Bellucci 2185.88

38 Feliciano Lopez 2172.47

39 Fernando Gonzalez 2119.63

40 Juan Monaco 2096.65

41 Janko Tipsarevic 2083.16

42 Radek Stepanek 1998.96

43 Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 1996.55

44 Thiemo de Bakker 1995.52

45 Jeremy Chardy 1944.89

46 Philipp Petzschner 1912.58

47 Alexander Dolgopolov 1909.56

48 Juan Ignacio Chela 1874.04

49 Kevin Anderson 1774.81

50 Victor Hanescu 1745.32

I have invented a new concept to rank players I call set importance.

I defined it as the difference between the probability of winning and losing assuming the match equal skill.

For example, in a best of 3 match, the first set worth 0.5, because assuming equal skill, the probability of winning after 1:0 is 3/4 the probability of winning after 0:1 is 1/4.

A 2-1 win factored score is 1.5-0.5 and scaling the sum to 3 make the score of the winner 9/4 and the score of the loser 3/4.

A 3-1 win after leading 2:0 factored score is 1.25-0.25 and after being tied 1-1 is 1.375-0.375.

Full rankings:

http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2011/03/adding-tiebreaks.html

Here are the top 50 according to the improved rankings I presented in:

http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=178619

Rankings Name Ratings

1 Rafael Nadal 12450.00

2 Roger Federer 10268.11

3 Novak Djokovic 6986.06

4 Andy Murray 6924.04

5 Robin Soderling 5799.09

6 David Nalbandian 4691.21

7 David Ferrer 4690.98

8 Stanislas Wawrinka 4508.57

9 Tomas Berdych 4486.67

10 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 4175.49

11 Andy Roddick 4008.97

12 Mikhail Youzhny 3744.26

13 Jurgen Melzer 3507.34

14 Fernando Verdasco 3451.65

15 Gael Monfils 3403.60

16 Mardy Fish 3250.56

17 Lleyton Hewitt 3191.76

18 Nikolay Davydenko 3127.59

19 Nicolas Almagro 3049.73

20 Ivo Karlovic 3006.61

21 Richard Gasquet 2967.20

22 Marin Cilic 2942.88

23 Viktor Troicki 2796.62

24 Philipp Kohlschreiber 2734.91

25 Marcos Baghdatis 2696.25

26 Ernests Gulbis 2605.16

27 Florian Mayer 2568.79

28 Samuel Querrey 2549.42

29 Juan Carlos Ferrero 2520.66

30 John Isner 2442.69

31 Ivan Ljubicic 2407.65

32 Michael Llodra 2362.03

33 Gilles Simon 2340.68

34 Albert Montanes 2300.04

35 Denis Istomin 2229.67

36 Julien Benneteau 2228.93

37 Thomaz Bellucci 2185.88

38 Feliciano Lopez 2172.47

39 Fernando Gonzalez 2119.63

40 Juan Monaco 2096.65

41 Janko Tipsarevic 2083.16

42 Radek Stepanek 1998.96

43 Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 1996.55

44 Thiemo de Bakker 1995.52

45 Jeremy Chardy 1944.89

46 Philipp Petzschner 1912.58

47 Alexander Dolgopolov 1909.56

48 Juan Ignacio Chela 1874.04

49 Kevin Anderson 1774.81

50 Victor Hanescu 1745.32