New rankings concept - Nalbandian is the 6th best player in 2010 [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

New rankings concept - Nalbandian is the 6th best player in 2010

amirbachar
03-14-2011, 05:15 PM
Hello,
I have invented a new concept to rank players I call set importance.
I defined it as the difference between the probability of winning and losing assuming the match equal skill.
For example, in a best of 3 match, the first set worth 0.5, because assuming equal skill, the probability of winning after 1:0 is 3/4 the probability of winning after 0:1 is 1/4.
A 2-1 win factored score is 1.5-0.5 and scaling the sum to 3 make the score of the winner 9/4 and the score of the loser 3/4.
A 3-1 win after leading 2:0 factored score is 1.25-0.25 and after being tied 1-1 is 1.375-0.375.

Full rankings:
http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2011/03/adding-tiebreaks.html

Here are the top 50 according to the improved rankings I presented in:
http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=178619


Rankings Name Ratings
1 Rafael Nadal 12450.00
2 Roger Federer 10268.11
3 Novak Djokovic 6986.06
4 Andy Murray 6924.04
5 Robin Soderling 5799.09
6 David Nalbandian 4691.21
7 David Ferrer 4690.98
8 Stanislas Wawrinka 4508.57
9 Tomas Berdych 4486.67
10 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 4175.49
11 Andy Roddick 4008.97
12 Mikhail Youzhny 3744.26
13 Jurgen Melzer 3507.34
14 Fernando Verdasco 3451.65
15 Gael Monfils 3403.60
16 Mardy Fish 3250.56
17 Lleyton Hewitt 3191.76
18 Nikolay Davydenko 3127.59
19 Nicolas Almagro 3049.73
20 Ivo Karlovic 3006.61
21 Richard Gasquet 2967.20
22 Marin Cilic 2942.88
23 Viktor Troicki 2796.62
24 Philipp Kohlschreiber 2734.91
25 Marcos Baghdatis 2696.25
26 Ernests Gulbis 2605.16
27 Florian Mayer 2568.79
28 Samuel Querrey 2549.42
29 Juan Carlos Ferrero 2520.66
30 John Isner 2442.69
31 Ivan Ljubicic 2407.65
32 Michael Llodra 2362.03
33 Gilles Simon 2340.68
34 Albert Montanes 2300.04
35 Denis Istomin 2229.67
36 Julien Benneteau 2228.93
37 Thomaz Bellucci 2185.88
38 Feliciano Lopez 2172.47
39 Fernando Gonzalez 2119.63
40 Juan Monaco 2096.65
41 Janko Tipsarevic 2083.16
42 Radek Stepanek 1998.96
43 Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 1996.55
44 Thiemo de Bakker 1995.52
45 Jeremy Chardy 1944.89
46 Philipp Petzschner 1912.58
47 Alexander Dolgopolov 1909.56
48 Juan Ignacio Chela 1874.04
49 Kevin Anderson 1774.81
50 Victor Hanescu 1745.32

amirbachar
03-14-2011, 06:41 PM
Oh, and wait for next week for the all-time rankings based on those rankings

Roamed
03-14-2011, 07:23 PM
Really great work! Surprised to see Nalbandian so high up, he definitely doesn't deserve to be so high, but it's interesting as a projection of his ~talent~ or something like that. Must have taken loads of time to work it all out! Well done :)

amirbachar
03-15-2011, 07:30 PM
Really great work! Surprised to see Nalbandian so high up, he definitely doesn't deserve to be so high, but it's interesting as a projection of his ~talent~ or something like that. Must have taken loads of time to work it all out! Well done :)

It took me a few hours but I only started working on it last week...

viruzzz
03-15-2011, 07:36 PM
Excellent stuff Amirbachar

tennishero
03-15-2011, 07:53 PM
nice work

fabolous
03-15-2011, 08:04 PM
thanks for that contribution. i've said it before, i would find it interesting to rate players with a system similar to the elo system in chess, and this comes very close. are you familiar with the elo rating system?

now one thing comes to my mind instantly: you treat every match the same, regardless of whether it's a first round or a final, whether it's a slam or a mickey mouse tournament. is there any way you can weight different matches on different stages?

amirbachar
03-15-2011, 08:19 PM
thanks for that contribution. i've said it before, i would find it interesting to rate players with a system similar to the elo system in chess, and this comes very close. are you familiar with the elo rating system?

now one thing comes to my mind instantly: you treat every match the same, regardless of whether it's a first round or a final, whether it's a slam or a mickey mouse tournament. is there any way you can weight different matches on different stages?

I am familiar with ELO, but the problem with ELO, is that it doesn't look at future event.
For example, if player A beat player B and then player B succeed well later, it doesn't affect player A's achievement. My system does that since it is based on KRACH...
I am factoring the importance of the tournament, but not the round.

fabolous
03-15-2011, 08:38 PM
I am familiar with ELO, but the problem with ELO, is that it doesn't look at future event.
For example, if player A beat player B and then player B succeed well later, it doesn't affect player A's achievement. My system does that since it is based on KRACH...
I am factoring the importance of the tournament, but not the round.
how do you factor the tournament? and why not the round?

KRACH ratings is new for me, i will have to read about it first.

MalwareDie
03-15-2011, 08:41 PM
This system is horribly, horribly flawed. Nalbandian was not even remotely close to being the sixth best player of 2010.

amirbachar
03-15-2011, 08:53 PM
how do you factor the tournament? and why not the round?

KRACH ratings is new for me, i will have to read about it first.

GS = 2
WTF = 1.5
GS qualifing = 1
ATP = 1 (I didn't want to differentiate it too much...)
Davis cup = 0.75
Challenger = 0.5
ATP qualifing = 0.5

I didn't think factoring the round was a good thing to do, since to get to the final, a player should win his first round too...
The rankings aren't based on the round reached, but on the results themselves.

BodyServe
03-15-2011, 08:55 PM
I didn't read all, but how is the new ranking working? There is bonus points for the player with the biggest belly?

amirbachar
03-16-2011, 06:53 PM
Added tiebreaks factoring as well.

Aardvark
03-16-2011, 10:41 PM
Interesting that you took into consideration how the winner of a match performs in subsequent rounds.
But I think is unacceptable that dummy is as low as #179. He's great. He should be in the top 50 ;-)

tyruk14
03-16-2011, 11:54 PM
Oh, a topic about Nalbandian. [Insert fat joke here]

viruzzz
03-17-2011, 01:15 AM
Oh, a topic about Nalbandian. [Insert fat joke here]

Oh, I got one!
This guy is so pumped up.
<Insert music>

shiaben
03-17-2011, 01:16 AM
Good lord............... perhaps 6th most fixated athlete when it comes to thinking about his tummy!