Draw Continues to be Wide-Open for Murray; Is this Now or Never for him? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Draw Continues to be Wide-Open for Murray; Is this Now or Never for him?

Ozone
01-26-2011, 04:26 PM
Baghdatis retires to Melzer; Baggy may have been more of a threat to Murray
Dolgopolov shocks Soderling; Sod vs Murray could have been a toss-up
Now Nadal gets injured
If he beats Ferrer, it will probably be the easiest ride to a Final since Roddick in 2003 at the USO.

This is his best chance. If he isn't able to knock off Fed/Nole or catch them on a bad night, can he ever win a slam?

ossie
01-26-2011, 04:30 PM
fatdatis would get owned just as hard as melzer
soderling would prove less of a test than dolgo and the way rafa was playing he wouldnt be able to beat murray

Chartreuse
01-26-2011, 04:30 PM
Time to man up.

ApproachShot
01-26-2011, 04:32 PM
The way he was playing, he should have been able to beat Baggy quite handily, and the Soderling match may not have been closer than the Dolgopolov match turned out to be (especially with the error strewn Robin we saw towards the end of his run). Nadal would have been his biggest threat, so you are right to point out that luck seems to have favoured him - but at the same time it appears that Ferrer is painting the lines with winners and aggressive returns of serve too. Plus, I doubt how much resistance a Nadal with an injured hamstring would have been able to provide anyway.

On the whole it has been a nice draw for Murray, but he could well get a similar draw at a future major. While I agree this is looks like the best chance he has had so far, I would rather not make bold statements like 'now or never'. He is still on the right side of 25 years old and I don't think he has reached his peak quite yet.

Silvester
01-26-2011, 04:34 PM
uhh he didn't play all that great agsinst Dolgo in the last match, from what I saw before i fell asleep was his serve was really lacking. He was up several braeks in the first and let Dolgo get back in it. I'm thinking Fed/Nole winner takes the title.

However i also don't think it's Murrays last chance at a slam. He's still reasonably young.

samjones
01-26-2011, 04:34 PM
Baghdatis retires to Melzer; Baggy may have been more of a threat to Murray
Dolgopolov shocks Soderling; Sod vs Murray could have been a toss-up
Now Nadal gets injured
If he beats Ferrer, it will probably be the easiest ride to a Final since Roddick in 2003 at the USO.

This is his best chance. If he isn't able to knock off Fed/Nole or catch them on a bad night, can he ever win a slam?

It doesn't matter whether Andy Murray wins this one or not. He'll be a contender to win slams for years to come.

Ozone
01-26-2011, 04:35 PM
Yeah but Nadal is really hurt, if he doesnt get hurt, Murray loses (most likely). He is a heavy favorite over Ferrer on paper.

rocketassist
01-26-2011, 04:36 PM
In terms of beating Federer to win one yes.

Ozone
01-26-2011, 04:38 PM
The way he was playing, he should have been able to beat Baggy quite handily, and the Soderling match may not have been closer than the Dolgopolov match turned out to be (especially with the error strewn Robin we saw towards the end of his run). Nadal would have been his biggest threat, so you are right to point out that luck seems to have favoured him - but at the same time it appears that Ferrer is painting the lines with winners and aggressive returns of serve too. Plus, I doubt how much resistance a Nadal with an injured hamstring would have been able to provide anyway.

On the whole it has been a nice draw for Murray, but he could well get a similar draw at a future. While I agree this is looks like the best chance he has had so far, I would rather not make bold statements like 'now or never'. He is still on the right side of 25 years old and I don't think he has reached his peak quite yet.

You are right, but 25 is really a prime year in tennis. He has never seen a draw open up for him like this one has. Fed, Nadal, Nole will still be around for another 5 years so Murray really needs to dig deep here, I believe

NJ88
01-26-2011, 04:44 PM
I think Murray has been playing pretty great for the whole tournament so would have said he would probabluy have made the semi's whoever he played. Now that Rafas out though, it's completely opened up for him and you now do expect that he makes the final. Could be a great shot of him winning this one.

Still hoping for Murray/Djoko in the final.

Jagermeister
01-26-2011, 04:52 PM
He won't have an easier draw than this one but of course if Federer gets to the final it's hard to bet against him.

I honestly haven't been too impressed with Murray's form so far. I've seen him play better.

Silvester
01-26-2011, 06:03 PM
I thought he played better last year and look what happened when he got to the final.

tennishero
01-26-2011, 06:30 PM
hes losing in the final

mrclyde
01-26-2011, 06:58 PM
Federer is always winning in the final if there is noone else except Nadal. Maybe we can include Del Potro...

Allez
01-26-2011, 07:23 PM
Murray's got a huge opportunity here. He'd better not f it up.

severus
01-26-2011, 07:38 PM
Murray's got a huge opportunity here. He'd better not f it up.

Why everyone think that the outcome of this championship is in Murrays hands? The result of this championship depends on Federer and only on him.

Allez
01-26-2011, 07:44 PM
Why everyone think that the outcome of this championship is in Murrays hands? The result of this championship depends on Federer and only on him.

Federer's not been playing well at this year's tournament. Both Novak and Murray have been playing the better tennis. That is why a lot of people think Murray has a massive chance of winning this especially IF he faces Roger (he is a bad match up for Roger....and it's only a matter of time before he translates that advantage into a GS win). If he faces Nole (the more likely scenario actually), then anything can happen...

Simples ;)

DrJules
01-26-2011, 07:49 PM
Why everyone think that the outcome of this championship is in Murrays hands? The result of this championship depends on Federer and only on him.

Federer of 2004 to 2007 I would agree, but since the end of 2007 Federer has been a level lower than the golden period.

abraxas21
01-26-2011, 07:51 PM
Murray is winning the tournament.

I called it from the very start and I'm sticking with him.

finishingmove
01-26-2011, 07:55 PM
Murray's winning AO 2011 if his opponent in the final retires. Assuming he beats Ferrer

stebs
01-26-2011, 08:09 PM
It's definitely true that Murray's draw has opened up. Realistically it is a very easy draw to a grand slam final and Murray looks highly likely to take advantage of it. Clearly he has some serious quality, multiple grand slam finals and a fistful of 1000 wins show that. However, he is still only #5. I see no reason why it should be now or never considering he won't be the favourite in the final. There seems to me to be no good reason at all to suppose that should Murray fail to take the title here, he will be resigned to a slamless career.

Horatio Caine
01-26-2011, 08:21 PM
Baghdatis retires to Melzer; Baggy may have been more of a threat to Murray
Dolgopolov shocks Soderling; Sod vs Murray could have been a toss-up
Now Nadal gets injured
If he beats Ferrer, it will probably be the easiest ride to a Final since Roddick in 2003 at the USO.

This is his best chance. If he isn't able to knock off Fed/Nole or catch them on a bad night, can he ever win a slam?

Yep, no question that, on paper, it would have been an easy ride to the final. Certainly he has justified his easy draw - hammered all of his first four opponents. However, I'm confident that he would have got through his quarter anyway, Soderling included.

The Nadal injury/illness was very fortunate, but on a good day he would have been able to challenge for the win anyway.

As for 'now or never'...it certainly is a case of 'now' as he has a fantastic opportunity. He should beat Ferrer, so that would gift him another shot at a Slam title. Sure, it could be against Federer, but with excellent play and a bit of luck he might finally beat him in a Slam final. :shrug:

I don't believe that it is a case of 'never' just yet. Defeat in either match, now, would probably hurt him more than it did last January, but if he deals with it better this time then he can maximise his challenge for the Wimbledon/US Open titles later on this year. There are some some exciting new faces coming up the ranks this year, but none that he needs to be overly concerned about just yet.

Shade
01-26-2011, 08:28 PM
If he beats Ferrer, it will probably be the easiest ride to a Final since Roddick in 2003 at the USO.

Nadal in the 2010 USO.

Anyway, I don't think it's now or never, but it's definitely his best shot at it so far. He should make it comfortably past Ferrer into the final where he'd either meet Fed or Djoko. I like his chances against Fed given how they've both played this tournament, and Djoko would be a toss-up. So yeah, I think this is his best chance to win one so far.

chalkdust
01-26-2011, 08:49 PM
No. This is certainly a decent opportunity, but I think he has only about a 25% chance of winning the tournament from here. Maybe 70% versus Ferrer and 35% versus Fed/Novak.

Unless and until Murray improves his game, he can't really be thought of as the favourite to win any slam, still less a likelihood (starting from round 1). In this tournament so far, Djokovic has definitely been more impressive, while Fed is still capable of outclassing Andy, especially in a GS final.

No shame in that, and there will very probably be further reasonable opportunities to win slams, but it is of course possible that no opportunity will be quite as good as this one.

Andy's best hope is that he just becomes a better player (good chances), no other player rises to an even higher level (reasonable chances), or no other player(s) consistently (always) outperform him in his prime years (good chances). He just needs to keep trying, without letting failure get to him mentally (reasonably good chances). I really think a loss this year will be easier for Andy than last year, even if he loses to Ferrer.

SetSampras
01-26-2011, 09:34 PM
Oh god. He has a ton of opportunities in the next 3-4 years. Lets look at this way.. Other then the top 4 players in the world, the talent gets signifcantly thin therafter.. In fact, its light years ahead. Then you figure Murray is still in his prime and will be for another few years, Fed is only getting older, Nadal can't stay healthy obviously, and Djoker will probably his man competition, he has a ton of chances.

philosophicalarf
01-26-2011, 09:36 PM
I make him about 80% vs Ferrer, and 33% for the title now. It's doubly helpful for him that Fed and Djoko appear quite closely matched, and will probably tire each other out a lot in the semi.

Blackbriar
01-26-2011, 09:58 PM
If he cant get his shit together this time, and at least makes the final, and make a decent match this time, he will not be a GS favorite anymore.

ballbasher101
01-26-2011, 11:16 PM
It has been an easy ride thus far. Ferrer is tough but Muzza should still win. The final will be tricky whether it's Federer or Djokovic. Can he win, Yes. Will he win, don't know. He will get other chances in the future but this OZ open is probably his best shot at breaking his duck.

Rosa Luxembourg
01-27-2011, 12:01 AM
I hope he doesn't win the title. I can't stand the thought of seeing his fugly face all over sports pages. Any remaining player but him, please...

scoobs
01-27-2011, 12:05 AM
This is a good chance for him but he still has to beat 2 top 10 players to win, including potentially the 16 time grand slam champion.

It's hardly his last chance. It may prove to be his best chance, time will tell.

ballbasher101
01-27-2011, 12:07 AM
I hope he doesn't win the title. I can't stand the thought of seeing his fugly face all over sports pages. Any remaining player but him, please...

Give respect where respect is due. Am I a fan of Nadal, NO but boy do I respect that guy. You might hate Murray but u should at least respect his talent and achievements. When Nadal wins a major I'm probaby one of the first people to clap because u know that u are seeing a special player.

Jimnik
01-27-2011, 03:12 AM
It's as good a chance as he's had so far. Then again he didn't drop any sets before reaching SF last year so conserving energy isn't the issue. If he gets past Ferrer he's guaranteed a top 3 opponent in the final.

It's a question of whether he can find his top form on the biggest stage. Unlikely this will be his last chance.

Ben.
01-27-2011, 10:45 AM
Well the way things are shaping up on Rod Laver, he may have a chance to win a major without playing either Rafa or Fed. If he can beat Ferrer and is in a final against Nole then it is surely the biggest opportunity in his career.

Yazoo.C
01-27-2011, 10:48 AM
This is a great chance for him, hopefully he can take it.

abraxas21
01-27-2011, 10:53 AM
hes gonna take it

theseth1119
01-27-2011, 11:44 AM
This is yours to win now.

dombrfc
01-27-2011, 11:46 AM
Useful topic.

The Magician
01-27-2011, 11:47 AM
:yeah:

Jaz
01-27-2011, 11:47 AM
He won't beat Novak, though I wish him the best.

Iván
01-27-2011, 11:47 AM
murrays best chance to win a slam

abraxas21
01-27-2011, 11:48 AM
andy will win it all
i already bet all my vcash on him beating ferrer and i plan to bet it all again for him vs nole in the final

Ben.
01-27-2011, 11:49 AM
Definitely his best chance but this is a hard one to call because they haven't played in almost 2 years. You can probably throw the h2h out the window. Plus he has to beat Ferrer first.

madmax
01-27-2011, 11:54 AM
This is Andy's slam now...congrats on your first one mighty scott:bowdown:

Bagelicious
01-27-2011, 12:03 PM
He'd better uphold his end of the bargain and take out Ferrer. I don't think I could stand a Nole-Ferrer final.

LocoPorElTenis
01-27-2011, 12:10 PM
Djokovic has to be the favorite. Playing his best tennis ever and with less pressure. Plus he has only one match left, Muzza sill has to beat Ferrer, which will probably happen but won't be as easy as people think.

scoobs
01-27-2011, 12:12 PM
Please.

Even if Andy makes it to the final, Djokovic is hardly a gimme :o

Rafa = Fed Killa
01-27-2011, 12:12 PM
Gotta love how fedtards cheer for the guy who tries to suck Federers **** every Grand Slam

Cheer for the man Nole who destroys clowns like Federer.
Not the girl Murray who cant even win a set against girls Fed in Grand Slam Finals.

Seingeist
01-27-2011, 12:14 PM
Yeah, I'm extremely confused as to why people are so quick to give this to Murray, especially after a match like that.

Obviously, Murray could win (I have to brace myself for that possibility :)), but I think the edge definitely goes to Nole.

scoobs
01-27-2011, 12:15 PM
Yeah, I'm extremely confused as to why people are so quick to give this to Murray, especially after a match like that.

Obviously, Murray could win (I have to brace myself for that possibility :)), but I think the edge definitely goes to Nole.
He's won one of these before, Murray hasn't, of course the edge goes to Djokovic and that's still assuming Murray beats Ferrer.

rocketassist
01-27-2011, 12:15 PM
I couldn't be more tense- if he beats Ferrer, then beating Nole in the final is the perfect way to do it. But a loss would be the most painful one imaginable.

ballbasher101
01-27-2011, 12:20 PM
Nole is the favorite but Muzza still has a chance. Would prefer Muzza to get his first major but the Djoker does deserve to win the whole thing as he has been magnificent throughout.

mystic ice cube
01-27-2011, 12:27 PM
I'd love for Murray to win this slam, though Nole has to be the favorite for the final.

swebright
01-27-2011, 12:29 PM
He can't beat this Novak.

Let him beat Ferrer first; it won't be an easy match.

Anyway, I think it will be an interesting final.

Andi-M
01-27-2011, 12:32 PM
Man I wish AO would have the 2 semis on the same day I cant funtion with nerves.

Theres only one man in the final and therfore he is the favorite.

KaiserT
01-27-2011, 05:41 PM
The pressure Andy will put on himself will be huge, hopefully he can beat Ferrer and then take down Djok...... still going to be very tough.

Sham Kay
01-27-2011, 06:03 PM
I think and hope Andy will win these two matches. I do believe he can beat Nole, but will need to bring that A-game of his.

The thing is though now that it will probably be a Nolray/Nolandy final, although I would certainly be disappointed if he lost, it would be a far sweeter disappointment than last year. If I were to choose anyone to beat Murray in a grand slam final, it would be Nole. And a very deserving champion he would be.

Allez
01-27-2011, 07:19 PM
Muzza has to take this. Just no two ways about it. Nole is the overwhelming favourite but Andy can handle him. It won't be easy for Nole to move Andy around. Murray can play the cat and mouse game all day long is necessary.

I just hope he ups the ante a bit and really go for his shots. He has no choice but to inject a bit of aggression into his game else he'll be toast.

Zagor
01-27-2011, 07:27 PM
Muzza has to take this. Just no two ways about it. Nole is the overwhelming favourite but Andy can handle him. It won't be easy for Nole to move Andy around. Murray can play the cat and mouse game all day long is necessary.

I just hope he ups the ante a bit and really go for his shots. He has no choice but to inject a bit of aggression into his game else he'll be toast.

I'd favour Novak as well(amazing form,more experience on the big stages)but you're right,Murray will be an entirely different match-up for Novak than Fed was.It could be a very interesting potential final although I personally still wouldn't write Ferrer off.David's gonna make Andy earn it,he'll run down everything,go for the lines when he has to and given how good of a returner he is I don't see Muzza getting that many free points on serve.

Roger the Dodger
01-27-2011, 07:44 PM
Roger's out of the way. No more excuses for the mighty highlander.

Commander Data
01-27-2011, 07:48 PM
It is Murray best chance to date, that is for sure. We don't know what the future holds but it may really be now or never.

Djoker is in scary form. But certainly not more dangerous then Fedal in the final.

Would mean the world to Murray to win this after his tears last year.

I hope he wins.

Allez
01-27-2011, 07:57 PM
Roger fans for Murray :rocker2:

Clydey
01-27-2011, 08:07 PM
Muzza has to take this. Just no two ways about it. Nole is the overwhelming favourite but Andy can handle him. It won't be easy for Nole to move Andy around. Murray can play the cat and mouse game all day long is necessary.

I just hope he ups the ante a bit and really go for his shots. He has no choice but to inject a bit of aggression into his game else he'll be toast.

He'll be the favourite because of how he beat Federer. But overwhelming favourite? Hardly.

new-york
01-27-2011, 09:23 PM
Well NOW is certainly a good time.

Jimnik
01-27-2011, 09:33 PM
I'm not sure it's the opponent that matters as much as the occasion. In any case, Djokovic will have the advantage under these slow conditions. Question is whether Murray can bring his best tennis for a slam final.

shiaben
01-27-2011, 09:35 PM
Now would be a good time. But the thing is, Djokovic is at a top tier quality form. So I really fancy Djokovic's chances over Murray, no offense.

I think if Murray can bring some of that attacking form he had at the U.S. Open 2008 and the Australian open 2009, winning slams is imminent. It will happen. He just has to have an attacking game, remain consistent and things will open up for him.

You never know, he might not have to face Nadal/Federer if they were to get upset in matches which they do. Mostly upsets for Federer, and injuries/sicknesses for Nadal. So in such situations in the future, it opens up opportunities for him. Apart from that he'll need to raise his game, because the chances of Nadal/Federer/Djokovic getting KO before the SF are kind of uncommon, so he'll definitely need to raise his game because more times than not, he'll run into at least 1 of these guys (if he beats Ferrer he'll have to play Djokovic which isn't a cake walk), especially with the quality of play and consistency these guys have.

rocketassist
01-27-2011, 09:41 PM
The one time I thought both guys actually played well was the Cincinnati final. Very close contest as it turned out.

tests
01-27-2011, 10:48 PM
MUurray can take out djokovic IMO.

He will get the best of him in the final. Hes not gonna face fed, so hes good to go

Allez
01-27-2011, 10:55 PM
He'll be the favourite because of how he beat Federer. But overwhelming favourite? Hardly.

Not only that. He also has the experience of actually winning a GS...incidentally this GS. You should not undersetimate the power of experience.

Mechlan
01-27-2011, 11:13 PM
Certainly not now or never, but it is one of the best chances he's had so far.

BK 201
01-27-2011, 11:16 PM
If Murray doesn't win this, he never will. Period. It's harder for him to lose at this point.

Experimentee
01-28-2011, 12:05 AM
There has not been any easier road to the final in recent times.

Add to that the fact that if Murray were to make the final, he would play Djokovic on what is forecasted to be a 40 degree day in Melbourne.

Goldenoldie
01-28-2011, 12:08 AM
I honestly believe Murray would have preferred to meet Federer rather than Djokovic.

Fed is making a lot of errors at the moment, while Djokovic seems back to his very best.

Also the British media will "expect" him to beat Djokovic while only "hoping" he would beat Federer.

It could all be academic - he still has to beat Ferrer.

Mechlan
01-28-2011, 12:31 AM
If Murray doesn't win this, he never will. Period. It's harder for him to lose at this point.

Why?

Tennis4you-com
01-28-2011, 12:34 AM
I bet he never imagined that when he entered this tournament, if he was to win it, that he would not have to face Nadal or Federer. :)

Kat_YYZ
02-01-2011, 09:06 AM
Just thought I'd revisit draw difficulty now that the AO is over, using a formula I posted in another thread. Discuss, or not, as you see fit:

Draw difficulty based on rank:
Take the rankings of the opponents a player faces, add them up and then divide by the number of opponents to obtain an average.

RN: 93 (M. Daniel); 116 (R.Sweeting); 199 (B. Tomic); 15 (M. Cilic); 7 (D. Ferrer).
Total: 430 / 5 = 86.

RF: 97 (Lacko); 34 (G. Simon); 45 (X. Malisse); 52 (Robredo); 19 (Wawrinka); 3 (N. Djokovic).
Total: 250 / 6 = 41.6.

AM: 101 (K. Beck); 79 (Marchenko); 32 (GGLopez); 11 (J. Melzer); 46 (Dolgopolov); 7 (D. Ferrer); 3 (N. Djokovic).
Total: 279 / 7 = 39.8.

ND: 42 (M. Granollers); 81 (I. Dodig); 27 (Troicki); 14 (Almagro); 6 (Berdych); 2 (Federer); 5 (A. Murray).
Total: 177 / 7 = 25.28

This is a mathematical way of measuring draw difficulty; it doesn't take into account many factors: such as player head-to-head records or surface differences.

Like for Novak, Granollers' rank is inflated, as he is mainy successful on clay (like how Roddick is ranked inside the top 10, but is inferior on clay). Also, Troicki was not able to play, so that eased the path a bit. Still, on paper, Novak's draw was quite difficult. Not as difficult as Roger's last year (avg was 22.57) but he beat 3 top 10 opponents, so it's pretty impressive.

Fed and Murray's draw difficulty average is pretty close: if Roger had beat ND and gone to the final with Andy, add 5 and divide by 7 instead of 6 (255 / 7 = 36.4). So those two are pretty even.

Nadal's draw... :rolleyes:

Blackbriar
02-01-2011, 09:27 AM
Roger fans for Murray :rocker2:

Federer is fan of every player who is no threat to him. He likes Gasquet too.

scoobs
02-01-2011, 09:31 AM
Just thought I'd revisit draw difficulty now that the AO is over, using a formula I posted in another thread. Discuss, or not, as you see fit:

Draw difficulty based on rank:
Take the rankings of the opponents a player faces, add them up and then divide by the number of opponents to obtain an average.

RN: 93 (M. Daniel); 116 (R.Sweeting); 199 (B. Tomic); 15 (M. Cilic); 7 (D. Ferrer).
Total: 430 / 5 = 86.

RF: 97 (Lacko); 34 (G. Simon); 45 (X. Malisse); 52 (Robredo); 19 (Wawrinka); 3 (N. Djokovic).
Total: 250 / 6 = 41.6.

AM: 101 (K. Beck); 79 (Marchenko); 32 (GGLopez); 11 (J. Melzer); 46 (Dolgopolov); 7 (D. Ferrer); 3 (N. Djokovic).
Total: 279 / 7 = 39.8.

ND: 42 (M. Granollers); 81 (I. Dodig); 27 (Troicki); 14 (Almagro); 6 (Berdych); 2 (Federer); 5 (A. Murray).
Total: 177 / 7 = 25.28

This is a mathematical way of measuring draw difficulty; it doesn't take into account many factors: such as player head-to-head records or surface differences.

Like for Novak, Granollers' rank is inflated, as he is mainy successful on clay (like how Roddick is ranked inside the top 10, but is inferior on clay). Also, Troicki was not able to play, so that eased the path a bit. Still, on paper, Novak's draw was quite difficult. Not as difficult as Roger's last year (avg was 22.57) but he beat 3 top 10 opponents, so it's pretty impressive.

Fed and Murray's draw difficulty average is pretty close: if Roger had beat ND and gone to the final with Andy, add 5 and divide by 7 instead of 6 (255 / 7 = 36.4). So those two are pretty even.

Nadal's draw... :rolleyes:

To be really fair you have to consider that as if they had all reached the final - Nadal's 6th and 7th opponents, and Roger's 7th opponent would have had a very high ranking and would pull that average right down.