NBL Round 1 [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

NBL Round 1

Bolar Bolabi
10-14-2010, 05:06 AM
Wollongong v Gold Coast

5 units Wollongong -1.5 @ $1.90

Wollongong were great at home last season. They should be too strong for the Blaze in this opener.

Sydney v Melbourne

7 units Under 166.5 @ $1.90

Sydney are concentrating on defence this season. In the opening night, the nerves will be up and that should result in a lot of mixed baskets. Put it this way, if you bet on every game last year to go under, you would make a profit. This one should go under.

Bolar Bolabi
10-14-2010, 09:33 PM
I'm also trialing something else. Something, if I managed to do the last two years, would have made a huge profit. This is with another account. Every match, bet under.

3 units Wollongong under 168.5 @ $1.90
3 units Sydney under 166.5 @ $1.90

Bolelli Ultra
10-15-2010, 06:06 AM
Hi Bolar :)

Wollongong -2 @ 1.90
Melbourne -5 @ 1.90

atb

Bolar Bolabi
10-15-2010, 06:21 AM
You've been quiet lately.

Glad to see you're on the Hawks too. Despite the Blaze's strong roster on paper, I can't see them doing it.

Bolelli Ultra
10-15-2010, 06:59 AM
Havent even logged on here since February. Good to see the NBL back and the Sydney Kings back. I despise the Tigers but reckon they will be too strong tonight. I actually liked the OVERS in that game but might hold off.

bad gambler
10-15-2010, 07:06 AM
Blaze to beat Hawks - $2.15

gl

Bolar Bolabi
10-15-2010, 10:45 AM
Wollongong v Gold Coast

5 units Wollongong -1.5 @ $1.90

Wollongong were great at home last season. They should be too strong for the Blaze in this opener.

Sydney v Melbourne

7 units Under 166.5 @ $1.90

Sydney are concentrating on defence this season. In the opening night, the nerves will be up and that should result in a lot of mixed baskets. Put it this way, if you bet on every game last year to go under, you would make a profit. This one should go under.

3 units Wollongong under 168.5 @ $1.90
3 units Sydney under 166.5 @ $1.90





Winner x 4

How I will work this record is my Season record and my experiment record. Both are not related to each other. Both are seperate accounts. Will add them together at the end of the year.

SR (Season Record) +10.8 units

SER (Season Experiment Record) +5.4 units

bad gambler
10-15-2010, 08:08 PM
Blaze to beat Hawks - $2.15

gl

lost

Bolar Bolabi
10-16-2010, 02:44 AM
Regular Season Play

7 units Sydney v New Zealand - Under 165.5 @ $1.90

Experimental Season Play

3 units Sydney v New Zealand - Under 165.5 @ $1.90

3 units Townsville v Cairns - Under 161.5 @ $1.90

I was originally leaning over with the Townsville game, but will stick with the experiment.

Bolelli Ultra
10-16-2010, 07:04 AM
Bolar i was a little sceptical about your method but I watched the Tigers-Kings game in full last night and these totals in the 160's are way to high for NBL. The pattern of game play last night suggested to me that very few matches will reach the 160's and most will stay in the 150's imo. Or maybe the tigers shooting was just aweful I don't know. Anyway for tonight

Kings vs Breakers UNDER 165.5
Crocs vs Taipans UNDER 161.5
Crocs to cover -3.5

For tomorrow:
36ers vs Cats UNDER 166.5

atb

Bolelli Ultra
10-16-2010, 07:08 AM
Also for anyone who uses Centrebet for their NBL betting like I do, they currently have a promotion where if u put an NBL bet on and it loses, they will give you a freebet up to the value of $25. Not bad if you want to use those freebets for some long shot multis or whatever.

Bolar Bolabi
10-16-2010, 07:43 AM
Bolar i was a little sceptical about your method but I watched the Tigers-Kings game in full last night and these totals in the 160's are way to high for NBL. The pattern of game play last night suggested to me that very few matches will reach the 160's and most will stay in the 150's imo. Or maybe the tigers shooting was just aweful I don't know. Anyway for tonight

Kings vs Breakers UNDER 165.5
Crocs vs Taipans UNDER 161.5
Crocs to cover -3.5

For tomorrow:
36ers vs Cats UNDER 166.5

atb

I don't have the stats available, but the last two seasons I have visually observed and I would suggest that if you bet under in every game the last two years, you would have made a 40% profit. So many games go under and it looks like nothing has changed this year.

The reason why all these games don't reach 160 is because the players are shit and can't shoot. Now that the three point line is out further, you will see teams wanting to defend more and make teams shoot from outside the perimeter which will result in a lot of missed baskets, thus under.

I will be highly surprised if this Sydney v NZ game reaches 150 tonight. 140 is the logical total.

Cairns v Crocs, who knows. I liked over initally because both teams, particularly Cairns have strong offence. If the 3 point line wasn't as far out as it was, I would probably take over.

The Sydney v NZ game will end something like 78 - 70.

The Cairns v Townsville game will end something like 82-75

Last year, the books had totals set in the mid to high 160's and low 170's for a few rounds. It took them a while to get onto it and then started setting totals in the mid to high 150's.

IMO, the totals in all matches should have been:

Sydney v Tigers - 158.5
Cairns v Townsville - 161.5
Sydney v New Zealand - 158.5
Adelaide v Perth - 158.5

Bolelli Ultra
10-16-2010, 08:54 AM
Interesting to see why they have started with such high totals and even more interesting to see the totals they set for next weeks matches. Should be interesting.

Bolar Bolabi
10-16-2010, 09:12 AM
Interesting to see why they have started with such high totals and even more interesting to see the totals they set for next weeks matches. Should be interesting.

Where are they?

Bolelli Ultra
10-16-2010, 09:43 AM
I mean as in it will be interesting to see what they set....

Bolar Bolabi
10-16-2010, 09:58 AM
Totals will still be in the 160's. Providing most games fall in the 150-162 point range or even higher, they will keep the totals mid to low 160's. If it happens for a few weeks, they will adjust accordingly. Can't see them changing the totals just yet.

Bolar Bolabi
10-16-2010, 11:46 AM
Regular Season Play

7 units Sydney v New Zealand - Under 165.5 @ $1.90
5 units Sydney @ $1.72

Experimental Season Play

3 units Sydney v New Zealand - Under 165.5 @ $1.90

3 units Townsville v Cairns - Under 161.5 @ $1.90
I was originally leaning over with the Townsville game, but will stick with the experiment.

+1.3 for the season
+5.4 for the experiment

SR: +12.1 units

SER: +10.8 units

SP
6 units Adelaide v Perth - Under 167.5 @ $1.90

EP
3 units Adelaide v Perth - Under 167.5 @ $1.90

Bolelli Ultra
10-16-2010, 11:51 AM
Tonights totals 153 and 149... nice. I suspect the betting agencies will adjust by this week, we will see totals in the high 150's. 4/5 so far this NBL weekend, great start.

Bolar Bolabi
10-17-2010, 04:11 AM
You taking the under today?

bad gambler
10-17-2010, 06:14 AM
Sixers to beat Wildcats - $2.55

gl

Bolar Bolabi
10-17-2010, 08:06 AM
^
Under gets it with ease.

SR: +17.5 units

SER: +13.5 units

I personally hope books keep the totals in the 160's so I can continue to make this profit. I might call it a season in a few weeks if I keep cashing in like this.

5 games, 5 unders. None look like going over. If books don't put totals in the mid 150's as of next week, they will be *****.

bad gambler
10-17-2010, 10:34 AM
Sixers to beat Wildcats - $2.55

gl

win