Is tennis the most unpredictable sport in the world? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Is tennis the most unpredictable sport in the world?

nadal_slam_king
09-17-2010, 07:45 AM
http://www.crunchsports.com/category/Tennis/Roger-Federer-Favored-for-Seasons-End-Number-1-Ranking-201003030001/
Here is a complete list of the odds for the players that we think should be taken seriously for the 2010 world number 1 year end ranking (all Sky Bet odds):

1. Roger Federer, -200 (1/2)
2. Rafael Nadal, +400 (4/1)
3. Andy Murray, +500 (5/1)
4. Novak Djokovic, +650 (13/2)
5. Juan Martin Del Potro, +1000 (10/1)
6. Marin Cilic, +3300 (33/1)

Federer already has the Australian Open in his back pocket and the 2000 accompanying ranking points for taking the title down. He also has about a 3000 point lead on those that are chasing him in the ranks but there are a ton of events remaining in the 2010 season and tons of opportunities to chip away at that lead.

If you are going to bet this proposition then take Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic as those are the two main threats to Federer on tour at the moment.

Rafael Nadal's price of +400 might be tempting but he is far too injury prone at this point in his career to be bet in this proposition and he could find himself out of the top 5 before season's end. He obviously has the potential to be the world number 1 player, as he was the best just 1 year ago, however you need longer odds than what he is currently priced at to risk betting him.

Do we see such rapid changes in other sports over the course of a year, like in soccer, golf, basketball etc. ?

Action Jackson
09-17-2010, 07:50 AM
Golf

nadal_slam_king
09-17-2010, 07:53 AM
I would have predicted Mickelson's success after Woods dramas. I don't know if I'd call golf unpredictable in terms of predicting the top 2 each year, but overall it is more unpredictable than tennis in terms of top 50. But Woods was always more of a lock than Federer at the top before the dramas, because we always thought Rafa would take over.

Priam
09-17-2010, 07:57 AM
It's funny I was reading a "Is Tiger woods done?" thread on an American sports forum the other day.

nadal_slam_king
09-17-2010, 08:12 AM
Yeah I guess in terms of predicting major/slam winners, golf is a lot more unpredictable (because you get an out-of-the-blue winner often in golf majors). But in terms of who's finishing number one in the world, it has been hard to predict whether Federer or Rafa would over the last 3 years, harder than predicting who'd finish number one in golf.

Topspindoctor
09-17-2010, 08:17 AM
I think it is. I honestly wouldn't believe a few months ago that Nadal can win 3 slams this year. Especially after USO 2009, AO 2010 and losing to mugs like Ljubicic in masters events :o He was "done" as few months ago, now he's in GOAT discussion and guaranteed another year finish as #1. If that's not a fast change, I don't know what is.

nadal_slam_king
09-17-2010, 08:19 AM
I think it is. I honestly wouldn't believe a few months ago that Nadal can win 3 slams this year. Especially after USO 2009, AO 2010 and losing to mugs like Ljubicic in masters events :o He was "done" as few months ago, now he's in GOAT discussion and guaranteed another year finish as #1. If that's not a fast change, I don't know what is.

And same with Federer in 2009, he won 2 slams when people were considering Rafa a lock for Roland Garros at least (with good reason).

latso
09-17-2010, 08:21 AM
Tennis has to be the most predictable sport for ppl who know it.

Not only because from the last 27 GSs 25 were won by two players (or smth like that)

nadal_slam_king
09-17-2010, 08:26 AM
Tennis has to be the most predictable sport for ppl who know it.

Not only because from the last 27 GSs 25 were won by two players (or smth like that)

Yeah its easy to predict Rafa or Federer, but for the last 3 years most people would have got it wrong at some stage as to which of the 2 would be ranked number 1.

Yeah, for the mainstream media though they seem to struggle with even the simplest of things like their predictions of Murray winning slams etc. (in fact some real tennis 'experts' were predicting Murray).

I'm not a golf fan but I was able to predict Woods would finish each year ranked number one, and then at the start of 2010 I correctly predicted Woods would fall, and Mickelson succeed. And I NEVER watch golf and don't read about golf.

Whereas I bet a non-tennis fan would NOT have predicted that Rafa would dominate 2010 (rather than Federer). I certainly had no doubt Rafa would be the RG/Wimbledon winner this year because I knew the tendonitis was getting better treatment early in 2010.

Topspindoctor
09-17-2010, 08:27 AM
Tennis has to be the most predictable sport for ppl who know it.

Not only because from the last 27 GSs 25 were won by two players (or smth like that)

21 out of the last 23 actually.

I don't think it will happen any time soon to be honest (after Fedal retire). Partially the reason is the ridiculous domination of Federer and Nadal on natural surfaces.

For example from 2005 RG to 2010 Wimbledon nobodyexcept Fed/Nadal won at those 2 slams. That's 50% of year's slams on lockdown by just 2 players.

Federer dominated hard courts, especially USO, with Nadal slowly improving there as well (2 HC slams in last 2 years, which is pretty good). So we are living in an era of 2 hugely dominant players, with others fighting for scraps, basically.

latso
09-17-2010, 08:39 AM
21 out of the last 23 actually.

I don't think it will happen any time soon to be honest (after Fedal retire). Partially the reason is the ridiculous domination of Federer and Nadal on natural surfaces.

For example from 2005 RG to 2010 Wimbledon nobodyexcept Fed/Nadal won at those 2 slams. That's 50% of year's slams on lockdown by just 2 players.

Federer dominated hard courts, especially USO, with Nadal slowly improving there as well (2 HC slams in last 2 years, which is pretty good). So we are living in an era of 2 hugely dominant players, with others fighting for scraps, basically.
absolutely

thanks for the correction, didn't want to dig deeper

But yeah, imo it's a predictable sport. It also takes an elaboration on defining "predictable", coz if we look the bigger picture, a dominatd by a couple of individuals sport is a predictable one.
Like F1 in the Schumi era or now the Rallies with Loeb.

But if we talk betting wise, it is just as any other sport - if you know it well, it's predictable, if not - it's not :)

If i have to state one unpredictable for me sport (nothing to do with tennis, so sorry for the off topic) it's the WTA :rolleyes:

nadal_slam_king
09-17-2010, 08:41 AM
The biggest upset I've ever seen in sport is Rafa losing to Soderling 2009 RG.

latso
09-17-2010, 08:45 AM
The biggest upset I've ever seen in sport is Rafa losing to Soderling 2009 RG.
yes, i was shocked for days

i expected smth bad to happen to our planet

no irony

Action Jackson
09-17-2010, 08:56 AM
The biggest upset I've ever seen in sport is Rafa losing to Soderling 2009 RG.

Awww, not even close.

alter ego
09-17-2010, 09:40 AM
Yes tennis is an extremly unpredictable sport. We have 2 guys who have won 25 out of the last 30 slams. Fucking hard to predict.

Topspindoctor
09-17-2010, 09:46 AM
Awww, not even close.

Martina Navratilova called it one of the biggest, if not THE biggest upset in tennis history.

gusavo
09-27-2010, 06:44 AM
http://www.crunchsports.com/category/Tennis/Roger-Federer-Favored-for-Seasons-End-Number-1-Ranking-201003030001/


Do we see such rapid changes in other sports over the course of a year, like in soccer, golf, basketball etc. ?
lol yes, because thats how odds work. and coin flipping is the most unpredictable thing in the world cause this one time out of the million times I threw it, it landed on the edge. someone who is whatever percent to do something is that percent to do that something, whats the topic again?

gulzhan
09-27-2010, 06:45 AM
No.

The Magician
09-27-2010, 06:57 AM
Maybe if you're an idiot :o

simplet
09-27-2010, 08:18 AM
Tennis is obviously one of the more predictable sports in the world, simply because it's a 1 VS 1 individual sport. All the variables you have to take into account in collective sports or in golf or even horce races are simply not there.

HarryMan
09-27-2010, 10:39 AM
LOL, odds don't define if it is unpredictable. How can tennis be the most unpredictable sport when two guys have won almost everything in tennis in the past 6 years or so? Far from it. I think we need to define what is "unpredictable" first to answer this question.

BigJohn
09-27-2010, 10:52 AM
It used to be, but now that Nadal is set to win every slam for the next 10 years, it is not unpredictable anymore...

Topspin Forehand
09-27-2010, 03:20 PM
Baseball and golf are the most unpredictable sports.

Sillyrabbit
09-27-2010, 03:25 PM
No, but it's definitely one of the most fickle.

tennis2tennis
09-27-2010, 03:36 PM
Yes tennis is an extremly unpredictable sport. We have 2 guys who have won 25 out of the last 30 slams. Fucking hard to predict.

+1:worship:

No, but it's definitely one of the most fickle.

MY HERO!!:p

freeandlonely
09-27-2010, 03:38 PM
No.

Pirata.
09-27-2010, 03:44 PM
in terms of who's finishing number one in the world, it has been hard to predict whether Federer or Rafa would over the last 3 years, harder than predicting who'd finish number one in golf.

Having the choice between two players out of over a thousand for who is going to finish world #1 and when those two same players have won 25 out of the last 30 slams, is not really hard to predict. You have basically two options because Murray and Djokovic can't break through when it counts. Two out of a thousand?


Yes tennis is an extremly unpredictable sport. We have 2 guys who have won 25 out of the last 30 slams. Fucking hard to predict.

This.

Sapeod
09-27-2010, 04:00 PM
In comparison to some other sports tennis is easy to predict.

Not easy to predict though, by any means.

out_here_grindin
09-27-2010, 06:10 PM
Baseball and golf are the most unpredictable sports.

This. Baseball is so reliant on the pithcer that it makes for big upsets a lot. Golf is having an out of nowhere major winner every time now.

Sauletekis
09-27-2010, 06:39 PM
Tennis not even top 10 in this "race".

Soccer, of course...

TennisOnWood
09-27-2010, 06:50 PM
No its not.. as long as we have Federer and Rafa

Snooker IMO is hard to predict

r2473
09-27-2010, 06:59 PM
Chasin' Tail is the most unpredictable sport.

It is also has the highest participation rate.

Mjau!
09-28-2010, 01:16 AM
Women's tennis is! :yeah:

In comparison to some other sports tennis is easy to predict.

Not easy to predict though, by any means.

:hug:

Persimmon
09-28-2010, 02:31 AM
Not really. Fedal win most of the slams. 21 of the past 23 slams were won by Fedal.:eek::eek:

nadal_slam_king
09-28-2010, 06:14 AM
More difficult to predict who's going to finish each year ranked number 1 in tennis than golf. Most 'experts' predicted Federer would finish 2010 ranked number 1. They be wrong. A lot of 'experts' predicted Rafa would finish 2009 ranked number 1. They were wrong. Whereas in golf it was obvious each year that Woods would finish ranked number 1. And it was obvious this year that Mickelson would finish the year ranked number 1 (probably will happen, very close to happening). Harder to predict the tennis number one than the golf number one, because you know the golf number one will always be Woods apart from the obvious exception of 2010 which had nothing to do with golf.

bjurra
09-28-2010, 02:28 PM
Tennis not even top 10 in this "race".

Soccer, of course...

Soccer? When was the last time a complete underdog won the Champions League or the World Cup? I will give you a clue:

Never happened.

Filo V.
09-28-2010, 02:31 PM
Obviously not. Although it is an unpredictable sport to some degree, the top players generally are the ones who win the majors/masters. Golf I think is much more unpredictable. Also baseball.

out_here_grindin
09-28-2010, 02:33 PM
Soccer? When was the last time a complete underdog won the Champions League or the World Cup? I will give you a clue:

Never happened.

agree. Soccer is pretty predictable compared to other sports. Real and Barca absolutely ran away with La Liga last year and the same teams pretty much dominate the leagues. Plus Spain was only the 7th different nation to ever win the world cup.

which makes 3-2 wins at the Emirates for West Brom all the more sweet.

bjurra
09-28-2010, 02:35 PM
I think we need to divide the question:

1. Is it hard to predict the top 10 and the winner of Slams? No, at least not lately.

2. Is it hard to predict the winner of some R1 match between a guy ranked 78 and 92 in a 250 tournament somewhere? Yes, relatively hard.

3. Is it hard to predict the outcome of a match in progress? Yes, I have seen quite a few crazy turnarounds.

out_here_grindin
09-28-2010, 02:39 PM
The lower levels can be very hard to predict. Top seeds at futures and challengers often don't do well.