Rafa-Novak Final Favorite

09-13-2010, 03:54 PM
I am a bit perplexed why the bookies have Rafa as such a big favorite. Prior to the washout yesterday Rafa was 1.30 and Nole was 3.30. SO the explanation given here was maybe Nole would be exhausted so bookies factoring that in. Now after the wash out you would expect odds to tighten right? Nopes. Rafa is at 1.28 and Nole at 3.25 (For those who dont understand the payouts, if rafa wins the pay out is a 30% return while if Nole wins you more than triple your money).

Now dont tell me bookies know nothing. They dont set this. The money bet by people - in short demand/supply determines this.

For most reason i would think Rafa is a favorite but not by this magnitude. This is on a fast hard court and novak is coming off agreat win over Fed and now with adequate rest.

Could someone try explaining this why money is so overwhelmingly favoring Rafa winning here?

I see some posters here go from favoring rafa to nole here in mtf after the washout and also experts now are saying Novak's chances have improved dramatically. Patrick McEnroe is rpedicting Nole wins this in 5 among others.

So why is money not deviating at all and one-sided on rafa?

09-13-2010, 03:58 PM
I guess this means the people betting know nothing then, rather than the bookies. I think it is pretty 50/50.