WWW RG R4 Murray Vs. Berdych ? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

WWW RG R4 Murray Vs. Berdych ?

ShotmaKer
05-28-2010, 04:32 PM
tough one. could go to 5, may be.

green25814
05-28-2010, 04:34 PM
Berdych

Will be a repeat of Murray vs Gonzalez last time, similar power games and good claycout players.

ShotmaKer
05-28-2010, 04:35 PM
i'm going with Berdych too.

prafull
05-28-2010, 04:36 PM
I will be surprised if Berdych drops a set in this one.

Selby
05-28-2010, 04:37 PM
A 5 set tossup IMO

Sillyrabbit
05-28-2010, 04:38 PM
Murray made a task of Baghdatis and was on court for longer than he should, coupled with his long match against Gasquet, a little fatigue might kick in, but I'm still picking him to win.

jmf07
05-28-2010, 04:39 PM
Berdych

Andi-M
05-28-2010, 04:47 PM
Murray, 4.

scarecrows
05-28-2010, 05:13 PM
hopefully berdych keeps the good rhythm and doesnt brainfart
on clay abilities he has the upper hand

shadows
05-28-2010, 05:14 PM
Muzztache will dig this out.

Arkulari
05-28-2010, 05:15 PM
Berdych

Jomp1
05-28-2010, 05:22 PM
Haven't seen a lot of Berdych but Murray has been looking fairly good. Possibly the Scott in 5.

oranges
05-28-2010, 05:27 PM
Poll please?

Berdych in 3 or 4

Johnny Groove
05-28-2010, 05:27 PM
Berdych should win this, but he has a propensity to lose matches he should win.

Still, Tomas in 4.

ShotmaKer
05-28-2010, 05:37 PM
Poll please?


done.

ossie
05-28-2010, 05:41 PM
murray in 4

DwyaneWade
05-28-2010, 05:50 PM
Based on today's form Berdych and not being a fan of Murray I would love to see him go, but Murray is a much more consistent player. I just cannot trust Berdych to stay on form for this match. Murray in 4.

enigma
05-28-2010, 07:13 PM
Muzza in 4

MalwareDie
05-28-2010, 07:32 PM
Berdman in 4.

TMJordan
05-28-2010, 07:33 PM
Kill the dolt, Tomas.

federernadalfan
05-28-2010, 07:33 PM
murray seems to be in relatively good form
muzza in three

Everko
05-28-2010, 07:34 PM
Berdych should destroy the moving cow on clay

HDW
05-28-2010, 07:39 PM
Birdman in 4 :)

Aaric
05-28-2010, 07:44 PM
Take the trash out Tomas

vn01
05-28-2010, 07:52 PM
I see 2 variants.
1st-Murray destroys Tomas in 3 easy sets
2nd-Berdych wins in 4 or 5 tight sets.

I prefer Muzza to win

born_on_clay
05-28-2010, 08:00 PM
Berdych in 5

malisha
05-28-2010, 08:06 PM
stay strong Tomaš

green25814
05-28-2010, 08:14 PM
Berdych should destroy the moving cow on clay

Not true anymore, he's improved his movement on clay from what I've seen

Sunset of Age
05-28-2010, 08:42 PM
Rooting for Tomas to take this, but anything can happen with him on court...

mystic ice cube
05-28-2010, 09:55 PM
A 5 set tossup IMO
I'll go with that too.

Vida
05-28-2010, 10:06 PM
Berdych should win this, but he has a propensity to lose matches he should win.

Still, Tomas in 4.

yes.

gusavo
05-28-2010, 10:16 PM
I will be surprised if Berdych drops a set in this one.
hes like 12% to win in straights, not even very close to favourite for match

Elbarto
05-28-2010, 10:18 PM
Berdych has too average results on grand slams, so I think Murray will win in 4 sets

Filo V.
05-28-2010, 10:23 PM
Berdych is going to win the match, and there is no doubt about it. It wont be 5 sets either, 4 maximum. Berdych is a better player on clay, he will hit through Andy and I think he will come out on a mission, ready to prove a point, and overwhelm Andy, leaving him with no answer.

.-Federers_Mate-.
05-28-2010, 10:26 PM
murray in 4

Filo V.
05-28-2010, 10:27 PM
Tomas has improved his mental ability, his focus, and sharpened his game considerably the past few months. I think he could possibly choke but he isn't going to completely be overwhelmed by this situation, nor should he be. Murray isn't Rafa or Roger, and this is clay.

Elbarto
05-28-2010, 10:29 PM
Berdych is in good shape but has bad results against top players on grand slams, he always stops at 4th round in grand slams, except Wimbledon 2009 with a quarter,

Murray might win with his experience and combativity, it will be a hard task for Berdych to beat Murray even on clay

Cheeky Chick
05-28-2010, 10:32 PM
Andy to win, but Berdych isn't going to give it to him

Andy in 4

gusavo
05-28-2010, 10:35 PM
Berdych is going to win the match, and there is no doubt about it. It wont be 5 sets either, 4 maximum. Berdych is a better player on clay, he will hit through Andy and I think he will come out on a mission, ready to prove a point, and overwhelm Andy, leaving him with no answer.
so you have bet your house on berdych then? its free money so you have no reason not to. and why wont anyone ever respond when I make these kind of comments?

green25814
05-28-2010, 10:37 PM
so you have bet your house on berdych then? its free money so you have no reason not to. and why wont anyone ever respond when I make these kind of comments?

I bet on Berdych in straights.

I want murray to win, but those odds are sweet. Cant believe it.

gusavo
05-28-2010, 11:15 PM
I bet on Berdych in straights.

I want murray to win, but those odds are sweet. Cant believe it.
why do you think you have better information than the people who put the odds?
his comment is that hes totally sure berd will win. these comments are just unbelieveable and youre wondering if they can be serious after so many posts everywhere along the same lines

green25814
05-28-2010, 11:20 PM
why do you think you have better information than the people who put the odds?
his comment is that hes totally sure berd will win. these comments are just unbelieveable and youre wondering if they can be serious after so many posts everywhere along the same lines

Half the posters here are clowns mate, don't take it seriously.

coonster14
05-29-2010, 12:09 AM
berdych in 4. he has been playing well so far, and if murray wants to win, he better not brainfart like he did in the 3rd set against baggy.

Filo V.
05-29-2010, 12:17 AM
why do you think you have better information than the people who put the odds?
his comment is that hes totally sure berd will win. these comments are just unbelieveable and youre wondering if they can be serious after so many posts everywhere along the same lines

Oddsmakers are people with opinions, whatever it's based on is irrelevant, tennis matches are unpredictable, anything can happen. My opinion is different than theirs. They aren't always right, you know.

Alley-oop
05-29-2010, 09:30 AM
Berdych in 4:drink:

scoobs
05-29-2010, 09:51 AM
Heart says Murray

Head definitely says Berdych.

Audacity
05-29-2010, 10:05 AM
Toss of the coin for me. Berdych in 5.

samanosuke
05-29-2010, 10:10 AM
Murray in 4

gusavo
05-29-2010, 01:39 PM
Half the posters here are clowns mate, don't take it seriously.
exactly, I want to make them look silly

Oddsmakers are people with opinions, whatever it's based on is irrelevant, tennis matches are unpredictable, anything can happen. My opinion is different than theirs. They aren't always right, you know.
lol irrelevant.
they are not particularly unpredictable.
yor oppinion is different than theirs because you have less information and is worse at judging tennis odds than they are, I also reckon being a fanboy hurts your abbillity to judge a whole lot as well.
they very rarely wrong.
so, since its free money according to you, have you bet your house, or at least some amount on berdych then?

Filo V.
05-29-2010, 05:21 PM
exactly, I want to make them look silly


lol irrelevant.
they are not particularly unpredictable.
yor oppinion is different than theirs because you have less information and is worse at judging tennis odds than they are, I also reckon being a fanboy hurts your abbillity to judge a whole lot as well.
they very rarely wrong.
so, since its free money according to you, have you bet your house, or at least some amount on berdych then?

My opinion is different than theirs because I don't agree with their opinion. That's it.

What information is even needed? It's simple, WHO DO YOU THINK IS GOING TO WIN. I think it's going to be Berdych. Oddsmakers say Murray. I could care less about either, I'm not a major fan of either. There is no damn science involved, it's not like you have to be a genius to bet. And to say they are very rarely wrong is not true, they are definitely wrong at times, no-one is perfect, all the information they can look for doesn't change the fact tennis IS unpredictable and anything can happen. Nothing is 100% in tennis. The odds don't mean shit, it's about what happens in the match itself. I don't follow what others think I should believe, I follow what I believe, I'm not a parrot for some random person giving big odds to Murray winning. They are human, not computers.

I don't bet, never got into it, never interested me, and quite frankly, most of the betters on here are annoying to me and I don't want to end up like that, or being a betting addict. Doesn't interest me at all.

raahaat7
05-29-2010, 06:37 PM
Murry will burry berdych

Certinfy
05-29-2010, 07:39 PM
It's like the Wimbledon R4 match between Berdych and Roddick last year. Roddick kinda struggled to get into R4 while Berdych destroyed everyone in his way without dropping a set, but then when the match came Berdych got straight setted.

Even the poll back then favoured Berdych to win in 4 (like it does now). http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=146796

Murray in 3.

jcempire
05-29-2010, 08:02 PM
I Hope Murray but I pick Berd

Orka_n
05-29-2010, 09:59 PM
Birdie takes it in 5.

Duncan
05-29-2010, 10:05 PM
Berdych has the game to win this for sure but he will brainfart and Andy will take it.

philosophicalarf
05-29-2010, 10:13 PM
My opinion is different than theirs because I don't agree with their opinion. That's it.

What information is even needed? It's simple, WHO DO YOU THINK IS GOING TO WIN. I think it's going to be Berdych. Oddsmakers say Murray.


Oddsmakers don't "predict" who's going to win, they set probabilities, in this case approx 58/42 in Murray's favour, then make the odds slightly worse than that (their profit margin) *

The key to longterm success in gambling is realising that anyone can win any match, and thus the money exists in beating the odds. Is Berdy 45% perhaps? At the 2.40 you can currently get, that's +8% on average (a very healthy profit indeed, one which with disciplined staking will make you rather wealthy). However, if it's 40%, you're losing money. Small margins, and in tennis you really need to be able to nail it down to the nearest 2.5% to make money.



*actually this is kinda simplified, the leading books merely make crude guesstimates, set low initial bet limits, then let the market refine the odds. Longterm this is the same thing, just more accurate and needs less oddsmaking skill. Wisdom of crowds and all that, it's actually pretty impressive when you do big stats analysis on it.

gusavo
05-30-2010, 12:53 AM
What information is even needed? It's simple, WHO DO YOU THINK IS GOING TO WIN.
wow, that is amazing.

There is no damn science involved, it's not like you have to be a genius to bet.[/QUOTE]
there is, and you sort of do.

And to say they are very rarely wrong is not true, they are definitely wrong at times[/QUOTE]
no, they are wrong very rarely. you talk like you think you have proof that they are not wrong very rarely, where?

The odds don't mean shit, it's about what happens in the match itself.[/QUOTE]
oh, so someone who is 2% to win according to the experts (best oddsmakers) could actually be 99%?

I don't follow what others think I should believe, I follow what I believe, I'm not a parrot for some random person giving big odds to Murray winning. They are human, not computers.[/QUOTE]
how pro of you, youre not a sheep, you play by your own rules.
doing so dont make your opinnion magically the right one, though.

I don't bet, never got into it, never interested me, and quite frankly, most of the betters on here are annoying to me and I don't want to end up like that, or being a betting addict. Doesn't interest me at all.[/QUOTE]
well, if youre so certain berd is going to win you would make so much betting on him, if youre right. good thing you arent into betting though.

malisha
05-30-2010, 01:55 AM
Murray will need his serve in this one

another 40% day and hes gone

Ibracadabra
05-30-2010, 01:59 AM
Mind is saying tomas but always think murray will win. I always get this feeling with players i hate though

FlameOn
05-30-2010, 02:48 AM
I think Berdych in 4.

docking34
05-30-2010, 03:50 AM
berdych should take this. muzza doesnt like clay

safin-rules-no.1
05-30-2010, 02:13 PM
Isn't it about time Murray burned out? Watching him play is similar to taking temazepam.........:yawn::zzz:

Forehander
05-30-2010, 03:40 PM
Berdych is a bit of a head case. Might choke this one away so i'd pick murray

safin-rules-no.1
05-30-2010, 04:01 PM
Scotland's Queen is going down :)

Filo V.
05-30-2010, 09:21 PM
Me=1

Oddsmakers=0

oranges
05-30-2010, 09:23 PM
Me=1

Oddsmakers=0

Please do not encourage another gusavo rant about "logic", "scientific proof" about odds and the like :angel:

Certinfy
05-30-2010, 09:24 PM
flyboy u legend :worship: :bowdown:

Well done to the 6 people who chose Berdych in 3 as well :yeah:

Filo V.
05-30-2010, 09:24 PM
Please do not encourage another gusavo rant about "logic", "scientific proof" about odds and the like :angel:

Don't worry, I wont ;)

Corey Feldman
05-30-2010, 09:25 PM
close this shit thread already

;)

Persimmon
05-30-2010, 09:27 PM
I don't think Murray will win a slam this year.

philosophicalarf
05-30-2010, 10:12 PM
Me=1

Oddsmakers=0


Incorrect. See previous post.

marcRD
05-30-2010, 11:10 PM
hes like 12% to win in straights, not even very close to favourite for match

Well he won in straight sets and so maybe you should stop praising oddsmakers as gods and stop sending hateful pms to me. Oddsmakers just create the odds that will give them the most money, they knew brittish people would be betting on Murray so they just had the right odds to make them win their money.

philosophicalarf
05-31-2010, 01:04 AM
WOddsmakers just create the odds that will give them the most money, they knew brittish people would be betting on Murray so they just had the right odds to make them win their money.

Nah, doesn't work like that, the market is largely global. The odds have also been correct on Murray's performances for about 2 years now (he was underrated in 2007, as are most players on a longterm rise). Established players the market consistently gets wrong are more the likes of Melzer, Kohly, Mathieu and so on.

Bet all Murray's matches 2008+ at pinnacle, you'd lose 1.9% on flat stakes. By a not very great coincidence, that's pretty much exactly their standard profit margin (ie they were absolutely spot on).

Oddsmakers are indeed not gods - as per my previous post, they don't need to be. They set a very rough line, and move with the weight of money. When a line is off, it gets pummelled.

marcRD
05-31-2010, 01:35 AM
Nah, doesn't work like that, the market is largely global. The odds have also been correct on Murray's performances for about 2 years now (he was underrated in 2007, as are most players on a longterm rise). Established players the market consistently gets wrong are more the likes of Melzer, Kohly, Mathieu and so on.

Bet all Murray's matches 2008+ at pinnacle, you'd lose 1.9% on flat stakes. By a not very great coincidence, that's pretty much exactly their standard profit margin (ie they were absolutely spot on).

Oddsmakers are indeed not gods - as per my previous post, they don't need to be. They set a very rough line, and move with the weight of money. When a line is off, it gets pummelled.

I dont know exactly how it works, all I know is that there are odds that doesnt make much sense to me. Nadal for instance always has an odds of around 1.5-2.0 times the money to win RG which really should be way lower, the same goes for Federer in Wimbledon. Federer-Nadal matches on clay almost always give 3 times the money for a Federer victory, it should be alot more because Federer is not 1 in 3 to win against Nadal on clay.

I think Del Potro was barely favorite against Nadal in USOPEN last year which didnt make any sense (made alot of money that day). I dont know how they make the odds but I know that the odds at times get awfully wrong because some player has a big name. Most people knew Berdych would beat Murray and still he was odds favorite to win the match, really doesnt make much sense. But I have won thousands of dollars playing on weird odds and I only play when the odds is strange, right now I have 4000 dollars on Federer winning Wimbledon which would give me 2.5 times the money, while I belive the real odds are around 1.5-1.7 times the money.

gusavo
06-03-2010, 12:33 PM
Me=1

Oddsmakers=0
you will never win over them with your brain. they got the likelyhood of a win infinitely much better than you did, and if you ever get it better than them its a pure fluke since your methods are absurd.

flyboy u legend :worship: :bowdown:

Well done to the 6 people who chose Berdych in 3 as well :yeah:
hes continually making insane comments.

yes well done for chosing the least likely option.

Well he won in straight sets and so maybe you should stop praising oddsmakers as gods and stop sending hateful pms to me. Oddsmakers just create the odds that will give them the most money, they knew brittish people would be betting on Murray so they just had the right odds to make them win their money.
dear god you CANT be serious. "Well the coin landed on tails so maybe you should stop praising science as gods" YOU CANT be serious.

it should be alot more because Federer is not 1 in 3 to win against Nadal on clay.
oh?

I dont know how they make the odds but I know that the odds at times get awfully wrong because some player has a big name.
you know that huh?

Most people knew Berdych would beat Murray
no, nobody knew that

But I have won thousands of dollars playing on weird odds
you havent made money. though im lucky you believe im a retard so that you wont believe that.

oranges
06-03-2010, 12:42 PM
:haha: Un-fucking-believable

Lopez
06-03-2010, 01:41 PM
Gusavo must be rich, betting for the 1.1 favorites all the time :yeah:.

Orka_n
06-03-2010, 06:24 PM
This gustavo is good. Always working on his seed for the ACC.

Sapeod
06-03-2010, 06:30 PM
This gustavo is good. Always working on his seed for the ACC.
Not as if you'll be low down in those tbh.

Orka_n
06-03-2010, 06:41 PM
Not as if you'll be low down in those tbh.I honestly don't know what kinda seed I'll get... not that it matters to me. But you're still mad that I made a remark about your signature in the "I'M BACK, CELEBRATE ME"-thread your created for yourself. :o :)

Sapeod
06-03-2010, 07:02 PM
I honestly don't know what kinda seed I'll get... not that it matters to me. But you're still mad that I made a remark about your signature in the "I'M BACK, CELEBRATE ME"-thread your created for yourself. :o :)
You'll get a high seed.

I'm not mad at all. I don't let such little things like that annoy me. Why are you insinuating it did?

Orka_n
06-03-2010, 07:53 PM
You'll get a high seed.

I'm not mad at all. I don't let such little things like that annoy me. Why are you insinuating it did?Oh, nevermind then. :angel:

gusavo
06-03-2010, 10:58 PM
Gusavo must be rich, betting for the 1.1 favorites all the time :yeah:.
huh?

This gustavo is good. Always working on his seed for the ACC.
im the best. what is acc?