Federer's relatively poor break point conversion against Nadal [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Federer's relatively poor break point conversion against Nadal

andy neyer
05-22-2010, 06:48 AM
Much has been said about the tactical aspect of this "rivalry" (e.g. Nadal hitting deep topspin balls to Federer's backhand which has led to numerous talks about Federer having to improve his backhand) and also quite a few about Federer and Nadal's mentality when it comes to face each other. It is about this latter aspect that I want to discuss here.

Taking all of their matches into account, Federer has saved 112 of 196 break point opportunities (57%) whereas Nadal has saved 122 of 191 (64%). I guess that a 6% difference might not sound like much to you but it's a lot in tight matches, like most of the encounters between them have been. But what's probably more surprising is the fact that Nadal has overall had only 5 more break opportunities than Federer in 21 matches and yet he's managed to win the double of matches as Federer (14-7 in the rivalry).

If we talk about GS, the difference is a lot more pronounced. Federer has saved 53 of 95 (56%) whereas Nadal has saved 60 of 93 (71%) and even more telling is the fact that in spite of the fact that Nadal has had 2 less break point opportunities than Federer in 8 matches, he's managed to win 6 matches and Federer only 2.

Critical GS finals between these two were probably RG 2007 in which Federer broke 1 in 17 chances and Wimbledon 2008 where he broke in 1 of 13 chances. As you probably know, Nadal won both of those matches in 4 and 5 sets respectively.


This leads me to think that the mental aspect is very strong and perhaps crucial when it comes to explain why Nadal has such a strong record against a player that might be regarded as the GOAT by virtually everyone if it wasn't for him.
Furthermore, it probably indicates that Federer's biggest weakness when confronting Nadal might not be his backhand but maybe -just maybe- his relatively weak mentality (in comparison to Nadal's). Of course, Nadal has always proven to be an extremely strong player in the mental department. In spite of not having an awesome serve, he's second behind Ljubicic in the past 12 months in the break-points-saved list (Federer is in the ninth position) and also second in the break-points-converted (Federer is 46th, shock!) list so his amazing breaking point saving capacity against Federer maybe isn't that surprising after all.


FEDERER
bp saved bp faced tournament
4 7 miami 2004
4 9 miami 2005
4 13 RG 2005
2 5 Dubai 2006
7 14 Monte Carlo 2006
6 9 Rome 2006
8 12 RG 2006
1 3 Wimby 2006
1 2 TMC 2006
6 8 MC 2007
5 7 Hamburg 2007
6 10 RG 2007
7 11 Wimby 2007
1 1 TMC 2007
1 7 MC 2008
11 17 Hamburg 2008
9 17 RG 2008
9 13 Wimby 2008
9 16 Australian Open 2009
4 4 Madrid 2009
7 11 Madrid 2010
112 196 Total

NADAL
0 0 miami 2004
6 13 miami 2005
6 12 RG 2005
0 3 Dubai 2006
14 18 Monte Carlo 2006
6 10 Rome 2006
7 10 RG 2006
4 10 Wimby 2006
8 11 TMC 2006
3 3 MC 2007
6 11 Hamburg 2007
16 17 RG 2007
5 8 Wimby 2007
1 4 TMC 2007
1 5 MC 2008
3 7 Hamburg 2008
3 4 RG 2008
12 13 Wimby 2008
13 19 Australian Open 2009
0 2 Madrid 2009
8 11 Madrid 2010
122 191 Total

rafa_maniac
05-22-2010, 06:51 AM
Nicely done. I think part of the problem which is rarely mentioned is that on break points Nadal has the benefit of using his swinging lefty serve to Federer's backhand. This usually results in a dumped Federer return in the net.

andy neyer
05-22-2010, 07:23 AM
Wow, just checked the break points converted list and Federer is ranked 46th. That's very low for the current number 1 player in the world. He's below Verdaco but if it gives any confort, I can say he's slightly above a mental giant like Almagro.


Place Player % Matches
1 Korolev,*Evgeny 50 21
2 Nadal,*Rafael 49 35
3 Chela,*Juan Ignacio 47 25
3 Troicki,*Viktor 47 25
5 Granollers,*Marcel 47 20
6 Sela,*Dudi 47 17
7 Melzer,*Jurgen 46 30
8 Querrey,*Sam 46 26
9 Robert,*Stephane 46 17
10 Ferrer,*David 45 41
11 Berdych,*Tomas 45 31
12 Ferrero,*Juan Carlos 45 29
13 Soderling,*Robin 45 27
14 Djokovic,*Novak 45 26
15 Berrer,*Michael 45 24
16 Mayer,*Leonardo 45 18
17 Davydenko,*Nikolay 45 17
18 Monaco,*Juan 44 32
19 Youzhny,*Mikhail 44 26
20 Kohlschreiber,*Philipp 44 25
21 Kubot,*Lukasz 44 24
21 Serra,*Florent 44 24
23 Greul,*Simon 44 21
24 de Bakker,*Thiemo 44 19
25 Llodra,*Michael 44 18
26 Montanes,*Albert 43 30
27 Garcia-Lopez,*Guillermo 43 27
27 Tsonga,*Jo-Wilfried 43 27
29 Petzschner,*Philipp 43 25
30 Fish,*Mardy 43 19
31 Cilic,*Marin 42 33
32 Seppi,*Andreas 42 21
33 Robredo,*Tommy 42 18
34 Rochus,*Olivier 42 17
35 Bellucci,*Thomaz 41 31
36 Gasquet,*Richard 41 25
37 Andreev,*Igor 41 22
38 Gonzalez,*Fernando 41 18
39 Russell,*Michael 41 17
40 Verdasco,*Fernando 40 35
41 Wawrinka,*Stanislas 40 27
42 Becker,*Benjamin 40 25
42 Lopez,*Feliciano 40 25
44 Murray,*Andy 40 20
45 Isner,*John 39 30
46 Federer,*Roger 39 25
47 Giraldo,*Santiago 39 17
47 Nieminen,*Jarkko 39 17
49 Almagro,*Nicolas 38 32
50 Fognini,*Fabio 38 18
51 Benneteau,*Julien 37 23
52 Cuevas,*Pablo 37 21
52 Monfils,*Gael 37 21
52 Zeballos,*Horacio 37 21
55 Clement,*Arnaud 37 20
55 Ljubicic,*Ivan 37 20
57 Lacko,*Lukas 37 17
58 Starace,*Potito 36 20
59 Baghdatis,*Marcos 34 32
60 Chardy,*Jeremy 34 21
61 Chiudinelli,*Marco 34 16
61 Hajek,*Jan 34 16
63 Hanescu,*Victor 33 24
64 Gulbis,*Ernests 32 31
65 Karlovic,*Ivo 32 25
66 Roddick,*Andy 31 30
67 Gimeno-Traver,*Daniel 31 17
68 Schwank,*Eduardo 27 19
69 Luczak,*Peter 23 18

-Valhalla-
05-22-2010, 07:38 AM
I think part of the problem which is rarely mentioned is that on break points Nadal has the benefit of using his swinging lefty serve to Federer's backhand. This usually results in a dumped Federer return in the net.

Yup, southpaws have an edge serving wide to an orthodox in the ad-court [more often the game winning court].

dodo
05-22-2010, 09:04 AM
Wow, just checked the break points converted list and Federer is ranked 46th. That's very low for the current number 1 player in the world. He's below Verdaco but if it gives any confort, I can say he's slightly above a mental giant like Almagro.



cant give too much credit to that list with mental giants berdbrain and melzdown at the top.

dodo
05-22-2010, 09:09 AM
Yup, southpaws have an edge serving wide to an orthodox in the ad-court [more often the game winning court].
you would think so. but in this instance, if you think back to those delicious 1/17 and 1/13 matches, its all about Fed dumping middle-of-the-box second serve slice returns to the bottom of the net with him barely having to take a step. great fun.

Arkulari
05-22-2010, 09:18 AM
Serve to the BH in the ad-court, pummel with FH the resulting BH slice, rinse and repeat

siddy
05-22-2010, 09:27 AM
Yeah it's been a slightly frustrating aspect of his game (especially in matches against Rafa).

HOWEVER, I also think this is in many ways because Federer is creating more break point opportunities than other players? I'm not sure what the stats are on those, but I've always felt that Roger ends up creating break point opportunities quite often (including when he's playing against Rafa). I guess maybe he should step it up in a big way whenever such an opportunity arises but a lot of times he continues to play on the same level, unless it is a very critical game.

coonster14
05-22-2010, 09:37 AM
fed shits his pants more often than not whenever he sees nadal on the other side of the net.

i feel this is a mental hurdle fed will never get over in big matches. the spaniard is just too mentally tough for him, and of course, the advantage of the swinging lefty serve to fed's single handed backhand on break points.

i remember hamburg 2008 final, fed was up 5-1 in the 1st set playing beautiful tennis, then all of a sudden, just has the biggest brainfart i have ever seen and eventually lost that 1st set 7-5. he was up 5-2 in the 2nd set and he needed a tiebreak just to level the match at 1 set all.

french open 2007 - 1/17 and wimbledon 2008- 1/13, that just is not going to get it done, those 2 matches in particular mentally scarred federer.

i remember jim courier commentating during the 2009 aus open final and he said something along the lines of: "the difference between these two on break points is that rafa believes on a whole different level, and rafa delivers on break points, federer is just too passive on break point opportunities."

Bazooka
05-22-2010, 09:53 AM
Good post, and mostly I agree, Fed is probably the favourite in a fast surface, but if things start going wrong for him, I doubt he can find faith after such a long history of losing the important points in the important matches. The only exception I remember is Wimby 07 fifth set, where Nadal wasted BPs and Fed played them well. Since then...

On the other hand, I think the last 12 months from Nadal have distorted our view on his career, this guy is known for being a killer not only of Fed, but of anyone else, and his H2H record against the whole lot of top players was (and still is) awesome. Actually Federer may be one of the few that has really challenged him.

Dougie
05-22-2010, 10:30 AM
Wow, just checked the break points converted list and Federer is ranked 46th. That's very low for the current number 1 player in the world. He's below Verdaco but if it gives any confort, I can say he's slightly above a mental giant like Almagro.

Interesting, but the statistic would be more telling if there were the actual numbers as well. Obviously Federer creates so many more break opportunities and, consequently, more breaks than some lower ranked players, that heīs not that desperate for another break. What I mean is that if he leads a match, say 6-2, 5-1 and gets a couple of break points, itīs not like he fights over those points with the same ferocity as he did in the beginning of the match. That makes the statistics worse, but doesnīt really make him a mental midget.

nanoman
05-22-2010, 10:58 AM
Interesting, but the statistic would be more telling if there were the actual numbers as well. Obviously Federer creates so many more break opportunities and, consequently, more breaks than some lower ranked players, that heīs not that desperate for another break. What I mean is that if he leads a match, say 6-2, 5-1 and gets a couple of break points, itīs not like he fights over those points with the same ferocity as he did in the beginning of the match. That makes the statistics worse, but doesnīt really make him a mental midget.

That is true to some extent, but in general, I would say Federer is too passive and too predictable(floaty slice) on 2nd serve return at breakpoints, especially when he only has 1 breakpoint. And not only against Nadal, it's like that against everyone.
Before serving his opponents have already played the point in their head 3 times giving them a big advantage.

Now I want to see whether there are separate stats for bp conversion rate for 1st serve return and 2nd serve return. My guess is that the 2nd serve return breakpt conversion is bringing his overall % down.

barbadosan
05-22-2010, 11:04 AM
Points taken but even when Fed was way more explosive in return serves (cf. WMB 2003 against Sampras), he created a slew of breakpoints against Pete's serves, and failed to convert a frustratingly large number of them. In matches before 2003, it was pretty much the same story, so really, it's been a pattern from his very early pro years.

Bobby
05-22-2010, 11:05 AM
BP conversion stats are very tricky. If it's 0-40 and you have three break points and you lose the next two points, it's 30-40. But if you win the next point you break and win the game. That's the best result you can wish for, but bp stats says 1-3. Three games like this and you have broke the serve three times, but your stats are 3-9, which on paper looks pretty bad.

Dougie
05-22-2010, 11:26 AM
BP conversion stats are very tricky. If it's 0-40 and you have three break points and you lose the next two points, it's 30-40. But if you win the next point you break and win the game. That's the best result you can wish for, but bp stats says 1-3. Three games like this and you have broke the serve three times, but your stats are 3-9, which on paper looks pretty bad.

True. Also, if itīs 0-40, some players go for risky returns, figuring that if they get one big winner, it gets them the break. Again, it makes the stats worse but can actually be a smart tactic since the goal is to get the break, doesnīt matter if they get it with the first or third break point.

Bobby
05-22-2010, 11:30 AM
True. Also, if itīs 0-40, some players go for risky returns, figuring that if they get one big winner, it gets them the break. Again, it makes the stats worse but can actually be a smart tactic since the goal is to get the break, doesnīt matter if they get it with the first or third break point.

I ran 4.5 km's today and am enjoying my first whiskey as I speak. The air is too hot today, I can barely see the road from the heat coming up.

Dougie
05-22-2010, 11:36 AM
I ran 4.5 km's today and am enjoying my first whiskey as I speak. The air is too hot today, I can barely see the road from the heat coming up.

Talk about :topic:

Bobby
05-22-2010, 11:38 AM
Talk about :topic:

Yeah, sorry about that. I'm not really sure what my final opinion of the topic at hand is, I have to think about this a little more.

@Sweet Cleopatra
05-22-2010, 11:56 AM
Nadal is a better player than Federer. Nadal knows that Federer style of tennis is no threat to him. The only way to beat Nadal is to be better than him and federer knows he has no chance.

prima donna
05-22-2010, 01:38 PM
This topic is one which has been covered mercilessly. As has been established by Arkulari, the formula for success against Roger on breakpoints is no mystery. It's not as though this sort of thing is even remotely recent; we're harping on something which began five years ago. The variables remain intact: Nadal's strongest weapon, the cross-court forehand, invariably forces Roger to come up with answers on the backhand wing.

The repetition of such a glaring fact should only appeal to newcomers. Oh, and those who support Nadal and, as a result, find it desirable to engage in pseudo discussion. This isn't about a so-called rivalry (misnomer); this isn't even about tennis. Instead, it's about living vicariously through the accomplishments of one's favorite. Pseudo discussion is perceived as a way in which to appear to be objective and analytical; thinly veiled glorification propagated by sycophants. Alas, such individuals only bother to appear during the clay season.

Next chapter: Federer's lackluster net performance against Nadal.

marcRD
05-22-2010, 02:33 PM
62 out of 191 bps converted means 36% conversion rate, what needs to be done is compare this to the total of points from Nadals serve Federer has won to see how much of this is mental or if its up to Fed not beeing a greater returner than that against Nadal. Oh well, I will have to do it wont I?

Ok, now I have counted (from match one).

Federer has won a total of 848/2294 return points against Nadal which means he has won 37.0% of all return points against Nadal while his bp conversion is 36.2% against Nadal. I think the margin of error is minimal because the amount of data is huge, many matches between them. This shows a small mental disadvantage on big points but not close to as big as you are trying to make it. I think you have been fooled by randomness, if you play 21 matches against each other you are due to play 1-2 matches where you fail to convert bps like in RG 2007 and Wimbledon 2008, in between these matches Federer had several matches where his bp conversion was way higher than his return points conversion and even within the Wimbledon 2008 match there was moments of amazing mental strength to recover the weak first 2 sets in the tiebreaks and match points saved and utter determination to atleast not get broken if he cant break Nadal.

emotion
05-22-2010, 02:33 PM
It's not relatively poor
It's just plain poor

Persimmon
05-22-2010, 04:00 PM
Wow, just checked the break points converted list and Federer is ranked 46th. That's very low for the current number 1 player in the world. He's below Verdaco but if it gives any confort, I can say he's slightly above a mental giant like Almagro.


Place Player % Matches
1 Korolev,*Evgeny 50 21
2 Nadal,*Rafael 49 35
3 Chela,*Juan Ignacio 47 25
3 Troicki,*Viktor 47 25
5 Granollers,*Marcel 47 20
6 Sela,*Dudi 47 17
7 Melzer,*Jurgen 46 30
8 Querrey,*Sam 46 26
9 Robert,*Stephane 46 17
10 Ferrer,*David 45 41
11 Berdych,*Tomas 45 31
12 Ferrero,*Juan Carlos 45 29
13 Soderling,*Robin 45 27
14 Djokovic,*Novak 45 26
15 Berrer,*Michael 45 24
16 Mayer,*Leonardo 45 18
17 Davydenko,*Nikolay 45 17
18 Monaco,*Juan 44 32
19 Youzhny,*Mikhail 44 26
20 Kohlschreiber,*Philipp 44 25
21 Kubot,*Lukasz 44 24
21 Serra,*Florent 44 24
23 Greul,*Simon 44 21
24 de Bakker,*Thiemo 44 19
25 Llodra,*Michael 44 18
26 Montanes,*Albert 43 30
27 Garcia-Lopez,*Guillermo 43 27
27 Tsonga,*Jo-Wilfried 43 27
29 Petzschner,*Philipp 43 25
30 Fish,*Mardy 43 19
31 Cilic,*Marin 42 33
32 Seppi,*Andreas 42 21
33 Robredo,*Tommy 42 18
34 Rochus,*Olivier 42 17
35 Bellucci,*Thomaz 41 31
36 Gasquet,*Richard 41 25
37 Andreev,*Igor 41 22
38 Gonzalez,*Fernando 41 18
39 Russell,*Michael 41 17
40 Verdasco,*Fernando 40 35
41 Wawrinka,*Stanislas 40 27
42 Becker,*Benjamin 40 25
42 Lopez,*Feliciano 40 25
44 Murray,*Andy 40 20
45 Isner,*John 39 30
46 Federer,*Roger 39 25
47 Giraldo,*Santiago 39 17
47 Nieminen,*Jarkko 39 17
49 Almagro,*Nicolas 38 32
50 Fognini,*Fabio 38 18
51 Benneteau,*Julien 37 23
52 Cuevas,*Pablo 37 21
52 Monfils,*Gael 37 21
52 Zeballos,*Horacio 37 21
55 Clement,*Arnaud 37 20
55 Ljubicic,*Ivan 37 20
57 Lacko,*Lukas 37 17
58 Starace,*Potito 36 20
59 Baghdatis,*Marcos 34 32
60 Chardy,*Jeremy 34 21
61 Chiudinelli,*Marco 34 16
61 Hajek,*Jan 34 16
63 Hanescu,*Victor 33 24
64 Gulbis,*Ernests 32 31
65 Karlovic,*Ivo 32 25
66 Roddick,*Andy 31 30
67 Gimeno-Traver,*Daniel 31 17
68 Schwank,*Eduardo 27 19
69 Luczak,*Peter 23 18



:o

casabe
05-22-2010, 04:21 PM
Nicely done. I think part of the problem which is rarely mentioned is that on break points Nadal has the benefit of using his swinging lefty serve to Federer's backhand. This usually results in a dumped Federer return in the net.

yes. I have this crazy idea sometimes that lefty players should start serving from the other side. They have 2/3 probability of playing the last point of the game with their best serve. A rigth one has only one at 40-15

gusavo
05-22-2010, 04:45 PM
True. Also, if itīs 0-40, some players go for risky returns, figuring that if they get one big winner, it gets them the break. Again, it makes the stats worse but can actually be a smart tactic since the goal is to get the break, doesnīt matter if they get it with the first or third break point.
lol what?

-Valhalla-
05-22-2010, 04:50 PM
yes. I have this crazy idea sometimes that lefty players should start serving from the other side. They have 2/3 probability of playing the last point of the game with their best serve. A rigth one has only one at 40-15

I don't endorse your proposal but it's an intriguing idea I'd never thought of.

marcRD
05-22-2010, 05:59 PM
Once again I ask what the problem is? Is it the returning points won ratio or the bp conversion? Because both are almost the same (37.0% and 36.2%), therefor I cant see it as evidence of some mental problem Federer got but it seems more about how bad he returns Nadal's serve.

andy neyer
05-22-2010, 06:20 PM
BP conversion stats are very tricky. If it's 0-40 and you have three break points and you lose the next two points, it's 30-40. But if you win the next point you break and win the game. That's the best result you can wish for, but bp stats says 1-3. Three games like this and you have broke the serve three times, but your stats are 3-9, which on paper looks pretty bad.

Yup, that's very true but I guess that when you take a relatively large sample of matches, things should more or less even up and give a proper reflection of a player's breaking capacities against the other.

andy neyer
05-22-2010, 06:23 PM
That is true to some extent, but in general, I would say Federer is too passive and too predictable(floaty slice) on 2nd serve return at breakpoints, especially when he only has 1 breakpoint. And not only against Nadal, it's like that against everyone.
Before serving his opponents have already played the point in their head 3 times giving them a big advantage.

Now I want to see whether there are separate stats for bp conversion rate for 1st serve return and 2nd serve return. My guess is that the 2nd serve return breakpt conversion is bringing his overall % down.

I think Federer is at times way too passive and at other times way too agressive (I remember Rome 2006 when he had 2 match points on Rafa's serve in the fifth set; he decided to go for deep agressive shots and failed miserably). Regardless, Rafa finds a way to win most often than not.

-Valhalla-
05-22-2010, 06:42 PM
BP conversion % has all kinds of problems associated with it and can be very misleading. It can be a good indicator of break efficiency but not always a good measure of overall effectiveness.

andy neyer
05-22-2010, 06:43 PM
62 out of 191 bps converted means 36% conversion rate, what needs to be done is compare this to the total of points from Nadals serve Federer has won to see how much of this is mental or if its up to Fed not beeing a greater returner than that against Nadal. Oh well, I will have to do it wont I? .

I guess you meant 69 instead of 62, right? And yes, what you say actually makes a lot of sense.

Ok, now I have counted (from match one).

Federer has won a total of 848/2294 return points against Nadal which means he has won 37.0% of all return points against Nadal while his bp conversion is 36.2% against Nadal. I think the margin of error is minimal because the amount of data is huge, many matches between them. This shows a small mental disadvantage on big points but not close to as big as you are trying to make it. I think you have been fooled by randomness, if you play 21 matches against each other you are due to play 1-2 matches where you fail to convert bps like in RG 2007 and Wimbledon 2008, in between these matches Federer had several matches where his bp conversion was way higher than his return points conversion and even within the Wimbledon 2008 match there was moments of amazing mental strength to recover the weak first 2 sets in the tiebreaks and match points saved and utter determination to atleast not get broken if he cant break Nadal.

That's a very fair point. However, I'd still like to know the % of return points won by Nadal against Federer. Given the fact that they manage to create a fairly similar amount of break points, I presume that he wins a more or less similar amount of return points as Federer. If he, say, manages to win X% more points at break point chances than at regular return chances, then I could presume Federer might have a problem or that Nadal is simply too good at breaking depending on how big X is... Then again, this is only a presumption and I'll get the numbers on Wednesday to check it (I don't have much time until then). I'd also like to separate GS performances from general performances (as the data seens to indicate that the differences are larger in GS).

Roddickominator
05-23-2010, 12:06 AM
I think the "mental toughness" aspect is a bit overstated when it comes to Federer/Nadal matches.

It's a simple bad matchup for Roger. On big points(or any points really), Nadal can pound his forehand high into Roger's backhand and has a decent chance of forcing an error. Rafa doesn't have to play out of his comfort zone to do this.

Roger, on the other hand, usually has to come up with a big shot or series of shots to win a big point against Rafa. I know it sometimes looks like Roger is playing in his comfort zone when he hits some of his ridiculous shots so consistently...but the margin of error on those shots is always much worse than a looping Rafa forehand to Roger's backhand.

SheepleBuster
05-07-2011, 05:56 PM
In the light of the latest match between Rafa and Roger, I wonder who is the GOAT of squandering break points left and right. I am talking about among top players in history. Could it be Roger? I mean Roger creates so many of them, I guess it makes sense. It's not always choking but Roger wastes way too many break points.

Jaz
05-07-2011, 05:57 PM
Federer for sure. It's awful.

Really bad.

bokehlicious
05-07-2011, 05:58 PM
Roger by a country mile. Had he scored 1/10 of them since two years he'd still be the holder of 3 slams...

alter ego
05-07-2011, 05:58 PM
I think he had bps in 5 out of the last 8 games Nadull served. Unbelieveble. The last chance he had was a disaster. A 2nd serve return in the bottom of the net. Pigglet's luck is endless.

iriraz
05-07-2011, 05:59 PM
I would like to know in how many of those missed BP,Federer was in a rally.It seemed every time he had a BP he didn`t put a return in.

SheepleBuster
05-07-2011, 06:00 PM
I would like to know in how many of those missed BP,Federer was in a rally.It seemed every time he had a BP he didn`t put a return in.

Always finds the bottom of the net on major points :) It's sad. But Roger is Roger. I like all the drama, heart breaks, face palms. :)

MaxPower
05-07-2011, 06:00 PM
Normally he is not a big choker on BPs. Look at the other matches this week. It's just that he feels he needs to do something extra with BPs against Rafa. Like stepping in on the second serve and go for a quick return and then rush the net etc. He got no confidence from the baseline vs Nadal. Plus he gets tired/loses focus from the constant moonballing and long rallies. Compare how much sharper he was against Soderling when the points are quicker due to Sods aggressive play

Timariot
05-07-2011, 06:02 PM
It's actually somewhat misleading statistic.

Federer is really good at returning at deuce court, but not that great in returning ad court. So he will create lots of bp's, but also miss a lot of them.

One thing, though, which seems to have changed is his slice return. For some reason he seems to have abandoned that completely, even though it served him so well earlier in his career.

Roamed
05-07-2011, 06:07 PM
Normally he is not a big choker on BPs. Look at the other matches this week. It's just that he feels he needs to do something extra with BPs against Rafa. Like stepping in on the second serve and go for a quick return and then rush the net etc. He got no confidence from the baseline vs Nadal. Plus he gets tired/loses focus from the constant moonballing and long rallies. Compare how much sharper he was against Soderling when the points are quicker due to Sods aggressive play

In the other matches this week, his BP stats were:

1/6 against Sod
3/6 against Malisse (good)
1/6 against Feli

With a a grand total of 7/29 (24%) for the week. It feels like it's been pretty consistently bad for a while now, although I do agree it's slightly worse in big matches :/

Priam
05-07-2011, 06:10 PM
Nothing new here. One of the stories of the Fedal rivalry really.

Pirata.
05-07-2011, 06:36 PM
Where is Voo when you need him?

Poirot123
05-07-2011, 06:41 PM
It was 2/11 today. Pretty awful and below average for the week (24% compared to 22% today). Anyone know what Nadal's break point record has been this week?

Roamed
05-07-2011, 06:49 PM
Did a few sums so I'm bumping this thread rather than posting a new one. It's kind of the same thing as the OP but in less detail, but it's updated to now so I might as well post anyway :shrug: :)

Roger has managed to give himself 206 break point opportunities against Rafa. He's won 76 of them, for a conversion rate of 36.9%.
Rafa has managed to give himself 208 break point opportunities against Roger. He's won 92 of them, for a conversion rate of 44.2%.

Of course, it may not be an entirely truthful stat given that either may have had 0-40 and converted immediately and that only shows up as 1/1 break points, discounting the other two potential BPs, but I still think it's interesting comparing them, as the number of opportunities they give themselves is relatively equal but there is such a large gulf in the H2H.

fast_clay
05-07-2011, 06:53 PM
atp tour lifetime bp conversion average vs nadal: 31%
federer lifetime bp conversion average vs nadal: 4%

Timariot
05-07-2011, 07:05 PM
Of course, it may not be an entirely truthful stat given that either may have had 0-40 and converted immediately and that only shows up as 1/1 break points, discounting the other two potential BPs, but I still think it's interesting comparing them, as the number of opportunities they give themselves is relatively equal but there is such a large gulf in the H2H.

Why is that a big deal? Say you break someone three times in each match, but he breaks you four times. If it goes that way every time, your breaking stats are "close", but your h2h might be 10-0.

Fedal h2h is lopsided for the simple reason that when Federer was at his peak, Nadal was getting his ass kicked by James Blakes of the world and almost never met Federer on hardcourts or indoors.

Roamed
05-07-2011, 07:20 PM
Why is that a big deal? Say you break someone three times in each match, but he breaks you four times. If it goes that way every time, your breaking stats are "close", but your h2h might be 10-0.

Fedal h2h is lopsided for the simple reason that when Federer was at his peak, Nadal was getting his ass kicked by James Blakes of the world and almost never met Federer on hardcourts or indoors.

The actual % of break points converted stats are irrelevant, I was posting them just as a detail. What I meaning to point was the fact that the number of opportunities that have been created are close - 208 compared to 206. If two players were equal mentally, and yet one had a big lead in the head to head, you'd assume the ratio for the number of break points opportunities created to be skewed in favour of the player winning the head to head, but that isn't the case for Fedal, which can be interpreted either as a compliment to Rafa's mentality, a reflection on Roger's mentality, or a reflection of the effectiveness of the way Rafa's BP's usually go (serve into Fed's BH, dumped into the net). :)

Jaz
05-07-2011, 09:08 PM
atp tour lifetime bp conversion average vs nadal: 31%
federer lifetime bp conversion average vs nadal: 4%

Are these made up stats?