What a drought for Rafa... [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

What a drought for Rafa...

theseth1119
04-05-2010, 02:27 AM
I believe it now spans 12 tournaments and the 2009 YEC, so 13 in total, the unlucky 13. The thing is, even in the next 6 weeks Rafa can't gain much ground at all. 2009: won Monte Carlo, won Barcelona, won Rome, and runner up at Madrid; which means that Rafa can't gain more than 400 points in the next 6 weeks before the FO. Does anyone here really think Rafa's going 20-0 in the next 6 weeks? I don't see it at all. Therefore Rafa's not going to be #1 again anytime soon!

andy neyer
04-05-2010, 03:14 AM
Chill out.

Rafa defends a lot in the clay court season but only 180 points in RG. If he wins RG, he'll gain 2000-180 = 1820 points. Then he has nothing to defend in Wimby so he can gain a lot of points there.

Say, if Rafa were to win both GS like he did in 2008, he'll get 3820 points and Federer would lose at least 1600 points (that is assuming he loses in the final like it happened in 2008). That type of differential would surely make Nadal number 1 again.

brent-o
04-05-2010, 03:21 AM
I think Rafa's more immediate goal is winning A tournament rather than winning multiple tournaments in order to get back to number 1.

RagingLamb
04-05-2010, 03:29 AM
I think Rafa's more immediate goal is winning A tournament rather than winning multiple tournaments in order to get back to number 1.

Agreed.

I don't think rankings are very high on his list of priorities at the moment. He needs to win a tournament or two and get his confidence back.

coonster14
04-05-2010, 03:39 AM
this is what rafa needs now more than anything else: win ONE tournament!!! it has been too long...when he wins a tournament again, then his confidence will be back, for now, it is all still a work in progress.

but rafa is a champion, and u can never count him out, he has proven that in the past, and as a fan, i have belief in him that he will bounce back, there are two tennis players that u should never ever count out: rafa, and roger federer!!! :)

wait until after french open and wimbledon- i think rafa will be in a good position to be #2 or hopefully #1 if he can win both those slams.

theseth1119
04-05-2010, 03:42 AM
Rafa is NOT winning the FO and W. People on here are so delusional, he hasn't won a single tournament for 11 months now and suddenly he's going to win the FO and W. There's NO way he's winning W and even the FO I truly have my doubts.

andy neyer
04-05-2010, 03:45 AM
Rafa is NOT winning the FO and W. People on here are so delusional, he hasn't won a single tournament for 11 months now and suddenly he's going to win the FO and W. There's NO way he's winning W and even the FO I truly have my doubts.

Well, people were saying similar things about Federer in the first months of 2009 and look how he performed in RG and W. Tennis is unpredictable and much can happen in the game.

theseth1119
04-05-2010, 03:48 AM
You can't compare, Rogie hadn't gone 11 months without a single tournament victory.

andy neyer
04-05-2010, 04:02 AM
Yes, I can compare. The situations are of course not the same (they never are) but the fact much can happen in the game, especially considering that Rafa has already won W and RG in the same year. In 2009 after Miami and even more so after Rome, no-one was expecting Federer to gain the number 1 that year. Even Federer himself said that regaining the number 1 wasn't a realistic goal for him at that time and a few months later, boom! It's all happening.

Again, people are to quick to dimiss players here. A bad run and suddenly am I supposed to believe a certain player is done? I expect Nadal to dominate during the clay court season, like he's done for most of his career.

Johnny Groove
04-05-2010, 04:15 AM
Didn't win a title from RG 2006 to IW 2007.
Didn't win a title from RG 2007 to MC 2008.

It's not like he hasn't had droughts like this before. If he loses in Monte Carlo, then maybe his decline is for real.

kobulingam
04-05-2010, 04:43 AM
Fed had mono, which he can recover from (though it takes several months/years to recover fully). Nadal has knee problems, which are chronic. Big difference.

theseth1119
04-05-2010, 04:45 AM
My point exactly, Rafa's in a much worse situation than Rogie's ever been in.

SheepleBuster
04-05-2010, 04:48 AM
Rafa will win all clay court tournaments but won't win Wimbledon. I think we will have a new champ this year and it won't be Nadal at Wimby. Heck I would have said Murray but the guy is on his way to out of top 5

theseth1119
04-05-2010, 04:51 AM
Rafa's not going 27-0 in his next 27 matches. He's NOT winning: Monte Carlo, Bareclona, Rome, Madrid, and the FO.

andy neyer
04-05-2010, 04:53 AM
I don't think he's going to win everything. He's never done that. But I do think he'll win the FO and at least one clay MS.

theseth1119
04-05-2010, 05:00 AM
Now that's reasonable, but to say like the guy above that he'll win all clay court tournaments, I don't see that happening.

kobulingam
04-05-2010, 05:57 AM
I think Rafa will win MC and Barcelona but not Rome. I think his knees will fail at Rome. Rafa is the best on clay, only thing that will stop him are the knees. If I were Rafa I would play MC, Rome, RG. This way I think he can win all three of those. Then Id skip any wimbledon warmups and go straight to wimbledon.

theseth1119
04-05-2010, 06:01 AM
While I agree that Rafa should play less, do you really think as a Spaniard he's going to skip both Barcelona and Madrid in his native Spain?

M4RC
04-05-2010, 06:26 AM
While I agree that Rafa should play less, do you really think as a Spaniard he's going to skip both Barcelona and Madrid in his native Spain?

No. BCN is his "home" tournament (not technically, but my point is clear), he would never skip Barna, never ever. On the other hand, he would die to skip Madrid, but he won't. Too much pressure. Madrid is without doubts his least favourite clay tournament of the whole tour.

mashamaniac
04-05-2010, 06:29 AM
While I agree that Rafa should play less, do you really think as a Spaniard he's going to skip both Barcelona and Madrid in his native Spain?

Well i don't think he'll skip any of them... but if he's going to avoid any worse injury it's logical to skip barcelona!! he has to learn from his previous mistakes, playing a 500 series event is that not vital for him ATM.

HarryMan
04-05-2010, 07:45 AM
This will all end in couple of weeks time. I don't see Rafa losing more than one match in the entire clay court season. People are underrating Soderling's performance that day. He was painting the lines with depth, serving big, retreiving almost everything Nadal had to offer, to beat him.

It is not like Nadal *gave* it to him, of course he didn't play his best tennis, I can accept that. Even for Soderling to repeat that performance, he has to play his absolute best.

Halba
04-05-2010, 08:28 AM
Rafa's not going 27-0 in his next 27 matches. He's NOT winning: Monte Carlo, Bareclona, Rome, Madrid, and the FO.

he will rest from madrid, but win all of the others

he will have time to rest knees before FO and won't drop a set in FO

KING OF CLAY

ApproachShot
04-05-2010, 09:33 AM
I appreciate it has been a while since he won a title or beat a top 8 opponent, but given his track record on clay, he is definitely my pick to win Monte Carlo.

It's not like he's playing badly at present either. He just reached back to back semifinals in consecutive hard court Masters 1000s and on each occasion he came up slightly short against an on-form opponent who went on to take the title. Going further back than that, the same could be said about Davydenko in Doha - a match where I believe he held a Championship Point. Even in the Australian Open, he was playing well until his match with Murray.

So all in all I don't think it's going to be long at all until he wins his next title. And when he does, a confident Nadal can be very difficult to beat on clay.

It will be interesting to see if opponents like Djokovic and Murray can raise their game to be a serious threat to him, in addition to seeing how if other good clay courters returning from wrist injuries (Del Potro and Davydenko) mount a serious challenge to him. Then of course, there is also Federer in the equation. I hope it will be a very competitive 6 weeks on the European clay, but in this time I do expect to see a resurgent Nadal.

MariaV
04-05-2010, 09:47 AM
No. BCN is his "home" tournament (not technically, but my point is clear), he would never skip Barna, never ever. On the other hand, he would die to skip Madrid, but he won't. Too much pressure. Madrid is without doubts his least favourite clay tournament of the whole tour.

IF he'll really play Madrid he should be sensible enough to tank early. Or better withdraw with some 'injury' as to avoid tanking to some mug before RG.

Orka_n
04-05-2010, 10:23 AM
Rafa will win all clay court tournaments but won't win Wimbledon. I think we will have a new champ this year and it won't be Nadal at Wimby. Heck I would have said Murray but the guy is on his way to out of top 5No, he won't. Nadal will lose points for sure come clay season. And even though he might win some back at FO and Wimbledon (I don't think he'll win either of them btw), he'll never be #1 again.

superslam77
04-05-2010, 11:12 AM
he will rest from madrid, but win all of the others

he will have time to rest knees before FO and won't drop a set in FO

KING OF CLAY

want to bet??????

Calidreth
04-05-2010, 11:13 AM
Rafa will win 1 clay court Masters and not win the French -- bank on it

superslam77
04-05-2010, 11:20 AM
Rafa will win 1 clay court Masters and not win the French -- bank on it

Well if the guy is REALLY injured and doing bad in 2 out of 3 sets imagine 3 out of 5. MTFesians ignore that clay is the worse surface to be injured on(even if he is the best on clay).

On another note if he is healthy for the clay season you can bet he will get very greedy and possibly hurt himself again for FO.

madmax
04-05-2010, 11:45 AM
LOL at some of those delusional tards saying Nadull will go 27-0 in clay court season:haha: What these clowns fail to grasp is that moonballer's invincibilty aura on clay is long gone and dusted - there are too many young up and coming two handed backhanders, who are more than capable of roasting spaniard even on clay. There's NO way he is gonna go undefeated this spring with shaken confidence and being much more vulnerable than in previous years - but you can keep on dreaming of course...

Start da Game
04-05-2010, 11:54 AM
LOL at some of those delusional tards saying Nadull will go 27-0 in clay court season:haha: What these clowns fail to grasp is that moonballer's invincibilty aura on clay is long gone and dusted - there are too many young up and coming two handed backhanders, who are more than capable of roasting spaniard even on clay. There's NO way he is gonna go undefeated this spring with shaken confidence and being much more vulnerable than in previous years - but you can keep on dreaming of course...

mostly he won't go 27-0 but it will be a sight to behold when he violently robs that FO from fed's delicate purse........

delpiero7
04-05-2010, 12:36 PM
I like the way that the majority of people are saying that either Nadal will clean up in the clay season, or that he'll get roasted. Very few people in the middle.

Either way, there will be a lot of people wounded at the end of the clay season.

yesyesok
04-05-2010, 12:36 PM
I don't understand all the skipping Madrid talk.

Madrid is a mandatory event and the only way Rafa can skip it is to fake injury, or actually be injured.

l_mac
04-05-2010, 12:56 PM
Didn't win a title from RG 2006 to IW 2007.
Didn't win a title from RG 2007 to MC 2008.

It's not like he hasn't had droughts like this before. If he loses in Monte Carlo, then maybe his decline is for real.

Actually he won Stuttgart in July 2007, which is why the media can jump on this "drought" as if it were much worse than anything that has ever happened before. The biggest difference this year is that for the first time he's coming into the clay season having ended it on a real low the previous year.

He was extremely short on confidence coming into Monte Carlo 08, even admitted to being very nervous after his win over Fed in the final, and was certainly in much worse form.

I don't think players ever went into matches with Rafa, even on clay, thinking they had no chance to beat him. Everyone and their mother knows how to beat Rafa anytime, on any surface.

FNT
04-05-2010, 01:30 PM
I don't understand all the skipping Madrid talk.

Madrid is a mandatory event and the only way Rafa can skip it is to fake injury, or actually be injured.

I'm sure his knee condition will let him count as injured.
As for his results, his biggest problem is the expectations. He has nothing to gain - we all know he's the best claycourter, so he should win RG and at least a couple of Masters, that's expected of him, whereas if he loses, everybody will consider him washed up. Having said that, I'm pretty sure he'll win MC, Barca and RG, but again, I think he should, those are the only tournaments he is the clear favorite in. Nothing to gain.

M4RC
04-05-2010, 07:02 PM
No, he won't. Nadal will lose points for sure come clay season. And even though he might win some back at FO and Wimbledon (I don't think he'll win either of them btw), he'll never be #1 again.

:eek: Amazing.

LOL at some of those delusional tards saying Nadull will go 27-0 in clay court season:haha: What these clowns fail to grasp is that moonballer's invincibilty aura on clay is long gone and dusted - there are too many young up and coming two handed backhanders, who are more than capable of roasting spaniard even on clay. There's NO way he is gonna go undefeated this spring with shaken confidence and being much more vulnerable than in previous years - but you can keep on dreaming of course...

http://img507.imageshack.us/img507/1329/23l066v.gif

Persimmon
04-05-2010, 07:20 PM
Rafa will win Roma and Roland Garros.

andy neyer
04-18-2010, 09:28 PM
Well the drought ended today and MC is in the bag.... What follows?

Noleta
04-18-2010, 09:31 PM
Well the drought ended today and MC is in the bag.... What follows?

Barcelona
Rome
Madrid
Roland Garros
Wimbledon
.................................................. .........................:D

Diprosalic
04-18-2010, 09:39 PM
Roland Garros
Wimby
losing to someone in USO final.

he mirrors federers 09.

ApproachShot
04-19-2010, 04:29 PM
After such a dominant performance at Monte Carlo, he may well be hard to stop at the rest of the season's clay events and even on grass. Of course it is a bit premature to speculate, but if his health permits, 2010 could be Nadal's best year yet. Unfortuantely some reports seem to indicate that the pain in his knees is recurring to the extent that he may have to amend his schedule, but that cloud in itself may have a silver lining.

andy neyer
05-10-2010, 04:06 AM
Madrid and RG follow?

coonster14
05-10-2010, 05:26 AM
the drought has ended---2 MS series (MC, Rome) in the bag for rafa...VAMOS make it 4!!! madrid and RG next :)