Ranking speculation: What will the top 10 look like after RG? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Ranking speculation: What will the top 10 look like after RG?

Lopez
04-05-2010, 12:06 AM
What do you think the rankings will look like after RG 2010?

Who will rise, who will fall?

Taking the ranking calculations below from Judio's rankings thread, we can see that Nadal has quite a few points to defend before RG, though this is said every year and almost always he defends most of the points:

Predicted Rankings for the week before Roland Garros (Removes Clay 2009 but keeps
Roland Garros 2009)

1 Federer 9,330
2 Djokovic 6,000
3 Murray 5,295
4 Davydenko 5,145
5 Del Potro 5,115
6 Roddick 4,600
7 Soderling 4,445
8 Nadal 3,880
9 Tsonga 2,860
10 Cilic 2,845

Remove RG and we have Federer at a little over 7000 and Djokovic slightly under 6000. So if Djokovic finds some magic form (he improved his form in the clay season last year), he might actually overtake Roger. Nadal can of course go on a tear as well and close in on Federer and Djokovic, overtake Djokovic and possibly Federer. Will we see the "natural order" restored with Fedal at the top?

Del Potro, Murray and Davydenko are all close to each other. DelPo's form is questionable after the injury but can he overtake Murray, Nadal and/or Djokovic and mix it up in the top 4?

Looking at the "Race" from El Burro's thread, we have Roddick slightly ahead of Federer, then Cilic and Murray. Nadal and Djokovic are 6th and 7th respectively:

01 Andy Roddick (USA) 2450
02 Roger Federer (SUI) 2225
03 Marin Cilic (CRO) 1450
04 Andy Murray (GBR) 1435
05 Robin Soderling (SWE) 1355
06 Rafael Nadal (ESP) 1300
07 Novak Djokovic (SRB) 1220
08 Ivan Ljubicic (CRO) 1210
09 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) 1165
10 Tomas Berdych (CZE) 1090

Can you see some lower-ranked player do some damage?

I've added a poll with some options, but discussion is more preferred :). Poll is multiple choice!

vn01
04-05-2010, 06:54 AM
Well,I see:
1.Federer(it's sure)
2.Djokovic(he will make at least QF at FO which will be enough)
3.Nadal(although he has to defend a lot of points,he will stay at the same position)
4.Del Potro(again a good performance at FO)
5.Roddick(he will continue his good run.This time on clay)
6.Murray(nothing special.As usual)
7.Soderling(he will reach the QFs,but will not fall down in the rankings)
8.Cilic(he will raise his game level)
9.Davydenko(after the injury)
10.Verdasco/Tsonga/Gonzalez(one of them will clinch the last Top 10 spot)

nastoff
04-05-2010, 07:20 AM
Nadal and Davydenko ( if they're fit ) are expected to gain, the rest are all a mystery. Roddick will probably disappear until the grass season and we might see more and more surprises from players lower in the top 20 like Ferrer, Monfils, even Robredo.
Some players ( like Tsonga and Roddick ) are incapable of adjusting their game for the clay season while others ( Del Potro, Cilic, Murray ) are still working on it, so the one out of those who manages to make progress will benefit as well. It feels like a tremendous effort though.
However I don't expect the top 10 to be much different to what it is now towards the end of the season because they're all expected to do well during the grass and the remainder of the hardcourt season, so it doesn't matter that much for them.

Or Levy
04-05-2010, 07:25 AM
One must remember that Del Potro has Semi points to defend at the French, and while I don't exactly recall his Masters results, I don't think they were poor. So he has a lot to lose, as well. I can't see him really challanging the top 4 unless he takes a Masters, he hasn't played in a really long time.

chowdahead25
04-05-2010, 07:26 AM
1) Federer
2) Nadal
3) Djokovic
4) Roddick
5) Del Potro
6) Davydenko
7) Murray
8) Soderling
9) Gonzalez
10) Verdasco

nastoff
04-05-2010, 07:29 AM
1) Federer
2) Nadal
3) Djokovic
4) Roddick
5) Del Potro
6) Davydenko
7) Murray
8) Soderling
9) Gonzalez
10) Verdasco

I'd go with that, pretty safe prediction. Though I don't expect Verdasco to be up there, probably somebody else. On clay he seems feeble these days, mentally too.

Lopez
04-05-2010, 08:23 PM
I think that Federer will stay on top but just barely. He'll probably win Estoril since it would be quite embarassing if he lost. He might go far in Madrid and I see him reaching RG final at least. Nole I think will improve and retain the nr. 2 ranking, but Nadal will be right at his heels and Rafa will win two clay masters and probably Barcelona.

top 10:
1. Federer
2. Djokovic
3. Nadal
4. Del Potro
5. Murray
6. Davydenko
7. Roddick
8. Söderling
9. Cilic
10. Tsonga

Wild prediction eh :lol: ?

duong
04-05-2010, 08:33 PM
Judio gave you the rankings before RG when you take off points from every player until then,

I will give you the points after the Queens/Halle (target for number 1 weeks record) :

the current summary for what you want (after RG) is between them but nearer to this one :

Federer 7 315
Djokovic 5 760
Davydenko 4 785
Murray 4 685
Roddick 4 420
Del Potro 4 405
Nadal 3 700
Söderling 3 245
Tsonga 2 680
Cilic 2 665
Verdasco 2 045
Youzhny 2 020
Berdych 2 000
Ljubicic 1 920
Ferrero 1 880
Monfils 1 680
Ferrer 1 645
F Gonzalez 1 620
Stepanek 1 615
Isner 1 605
Querrey 1 545

Lopez
04-05-2010, 08:39 PM
Thanks duong, much appreciated :yeah:

Jomp1
04-05-2010, 09:12 PM
Top8 will remain the same with some jumps up and down but nothing too big. Federer to stay no.1.

Certinfy
04-05-2010, 10:12 PM
We'll have someone re-enter the top 10 :angel:

born_on_clay
04-05-2010, 10:18 PM
One thing is sure: Soderling and Rafa will both fall

Certinfy
04-05-2010, 10:20 PM
One thing is sure: Soderling and Rafa will both fallWhy? Robin can gain a lot of point leading up to RG, and Rafa can gain a lot of points at RG. :shrug:

born_on_clay
04-05-2010, 10:23 PM
Why? Robin can gain a lot of point leading up to RG, and Rafa can gain a lot of points at RG. :shrug:

You know it's just a prediction
My opinion, I have a feeling it will happen :wavey:

Certinfy
04-05-2010, 10:26 PM
You know it's just a prediction
My opinion, I have a feeling it will happen :wavey:
Oh right, I forgot this was a prediction thread, I got myself totally confused. Sorry mate.

chowdahead25
04-06-2010, 03:22 AM
Roddick to make quarters of Roland Garros. Calling it:D

B.z.A.
04-06-2010, 08:37 AM
1) Federer
2) Nadal
3) Del Potro
4) Murray
5) Djokovic
6) Roddick
7) Davydenko
8) Soderling
9) Ljubicic
10) Verdasco

I think that it would be something like that. I think I'll be much smarter after monte carlo rolex masters when Ill see some of the players.

duong
04-06-2010, 01:31 PM
Rather rationalizing than predictions, what my calculations (previous page) make me think is that :

- top-10 should be quite stable : even Cilic and Tsonga have 600 points advance to their next competitors (Verdasco, Youzhny, Berdych, Ljubicic ... Monfils, Ferrero, Ferrer, Gonzalez being even further at 1000 points distance) : it will be hard for other players to reach top-10, they will need really big performance like MS1000 finals or RG semifinal ; yet it's still possible as the top-players have not been great recently ... but anyway their goal should be very ambitious if they want to reach top-10 so early

- numbers 1 and 2 are at stake between Federer, Nadal and Djokovic, Djokovic is still in good position actually even for number 1, after all when he had full concentration he had very good periods on baseline

- numbers 4 to 6 are at stake between Davydenko, Del Potro, Murray, maybe Roddick, it's very opened, but it of course highly depends on these player's injuries or form.

Actually if Davydenko and Del Potro had not been that injured, they could have pretended to far better, even to number 1 :shrug:

oz_boz
04-06-2010, 10:19 PM
I see Nadal going for the #1 spot again with massive point gain after Wimbledon - I have yet to see him lose RG to believe he will. With the current situation it is hard not to back him to at least a SF in Wimbly, only Fed, ARod and Rafa are good on grass.

Mateya
04-06-2010, 11:16 PM
We'll have someone re-enter the top 10 :angel:

I know who do you have in mind. :secret: :rolls:

Voted for Rafzilla to regain No.2 spot and for Djoko and Muzza to continue slump. Well, if you can call a QF of RG a slump. They should both make second week of RG, especialy Djoko, but you wouldn't bet your house on it...
Good nighty all, its past midnight here, omg. :zzz:

Fedicilous
04-07-2010, 11:15 AM
Federer will stay at top, Djoković will drop some points but I guess he will hold his position.
If Nadal save all points from the pre-RG campaign, I'm sure he will fail in Paris in QF/SF.
Murray should improve in Rome, but I can't see him playing any crucial role in Roland Garros, Quarterfinal is his max.
Roddick won't play any event apart from Rome, he has to be fresh and in good shape on grass.
Soderling can largely improve in Masters, but It's not possible that he will repeat RG final.

But in my opinion, the Swede is the biggest danger for Nadal on clay at present.

Halba
04-07-2010, 11:50 AM
Roddick to make quarters of Roland Garros. Calling it:D

bull. he won't play very good. he could be out 1R versus a south american dirt baller. the guy can't even slide on the dirt!

Halba
04-07-2010, 11:52 AM
Federer will stay at top, Djoković will drop some points but I guess he will hold his position.
If Nadal save all points from the pre-RG campaign, I'm sure he will fail in Paris in QF/SF.
Murray should improve in Rome, but I can't see him playing any crucial role in Roland Garros, Quarterfinal is his max.
Roddick won't play any event apart from Rome, he has to be fresh and in good shape on grass.
Soderling can largely improve in Masters, but It's not possible that he will repeat RG final.

But in my opinion, the Swede is the biggest danger for Nadal on clay at present.

roddick will play rome and madrid. murray will struggle in the clay season. his poor form on HC doesn't give me a good impression.

soderling is impressive. he can improve on pre RG results. he will never make a GS final again in my opinion. Semis are possible for him.

rafa won't be knocked out in SF or QF this time. no player is good enough.

Fedicilous
04-07-2010, 02:25 PM
Well, I think that Nadal could face Federer in semis, of course, in that case the Spaniard would be the favourite, but in my opinion Federer in god mode can defeat current Nadal even on clay.
He can also play against Soderling in quarters, but the questions is, If Robin will be able to play such a incredible game like he did last year-I think not.

If Federer wants to remain as number one, he has to play some better tennis than he did in Indian Wells/Miami.
Sure, he's preparing only for Grand Slams, but he also needs some results in Masters or 500.

If he continue that poor form except the slams, he could be dethroned after Wimbledon.

Persimmon
04-07-2010, 03:40 PM
1) Federer
2) Nadal
3) Djokovic
4) Murray
5) Del Potro
6) Roddick
7) Davydenko
8) Soderling
9) Cilic
10) Verdasco

Ububub
04-07-2010, 04:29 PM
Federer has to remember that winning a calendar-year grand slam would only net him 8,000 points, assuming he tanked all other events. Another player putting together a consistent string of MS wins and GS finals and semis could move ahead of him. (Lindsey Davenport added 2 more years as #1 without winning a slam by just being consistent.) But imagine the tumult in the tennis world if Roger were to win a calendar slam and NOT be #1 for the year.

silverarrows
04-08-2010, 12:07 AM
^^^ It would be a huge RIOT indeed if Fed won the CYGS and not be number ONE for the year.

oranges
04-08-2010, 12:32 AM
Not that Federer is winning CYGS, but not holding to No1 in that case is merely a theoretical possibility. Someone would need to be as consistent making slam finals or at least semis everywhere and win the majority of masters. Not happening, either scenario.

emotion
04-08-2010, 02:11 AM
1. R. Federer
2. N. Djokovic
3. A. Murray
4. N. Davydenko
5. R. Nadal
6. R. Soderling (hello, limb)
7. A. Roddick
8. JM del Potro (he's hurting. bad)
9. F. Gonzalez
10. M. Cilic- weak as of late

Lopez
04-08-2010, 09:35 PM
Not that Federer is winning CYGS, but not holding to No1 in that case is merely a theoretical possibility. Someone would need to be as consistent making slam finals or at least semis everywhere and win the majority of masters. Not happening, either scenario.

Yeah, it's only theoretical. The GSs give so much points, it's practically impossible to get the points from other events and show such consistency throughout the year.

And besides, it's not like Fed is getting 0 outside the GSs...

Nole fan
04-08-2010, 10:20 PM
I don't see Federer winning another RG, making semis for sure. I see -hope- Nole regaining his serve and form during the clay season and performing well at least at MS events, staying at nş2. I see Nadal winning a MS and/or possibly RG but he will have to face a lot of points dropping, so not sure he will make it past nş3. I expect Murray and Sod to make an impression. I don't expect much from Delpo, he's been out for ages. I can see Verdasco doing some damage.