Will Federer win the CYGS in 2010? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Will Federer win the CYGS in 2010?

Johnny Groove
01-31-2010, 07:26 PM
With his only real rival continuing to be sidelined with injuries and a dominating performance vs. Murray, does Roger have a legit shot at winning all 4 this year?

Noleta
01-31-2010, 07:27 PM
Possibly yeah.

EnriqueIG8
01-31-2010, 07:29 PM
If Rafa isn't fully healthy at RG, and Roger ends up defending it..I think he's unstoppable for the CYGS.

dodo
01-31-2010, 07:30 PM
Best chance of it happening since .. forever (cue Rafa-trolls).
Wouldnt exactly bet on it though.

Mosquito3
01-31-2010, 07:32 PM
Really someone still believes nadal is injuried????

Noleta
01-31-2010, 07:33 PM
Really someone still believes nadal is injuried????

Yes:shrug:Unless you're talking about another Rafa:shrug:

Andi-M
01-31-2010, 07:40 PM
If Rafa if fit for RG 80% chance he wins it, but I dont think he will be fully fit in the same way again :sad:

I think Del Potro is the most likely to prevent this from happening at RG, Murray at Wimbledon, Potro/Murray/Nole and possibly Cilic at US open.

I think he'll win 2/4.

abraxas21
01-31-2010, 07:42 PM
Most likely not.

Even without Rafa the field is quite strong. Besides, I expect Rafa to be back in full force for RG.

oliverbwfc
01-31-2010, 07:46 PM
no. he'll probaby make all four finals again though

BigJohn
01-31-2010, 07:46 PM
Don't know, but it is the best start possible to achieve it. Good luck GOAT.

rofe
01-31-2010, 07:48 PM
Doubt it. I think he only has a legitimate shot at Wimbly this year.

alter ego
01-31-2010, 07:50 PM
Lol, from being too old and 'should retire for his fans' last year, now people see him winning the calendar slam. Long way to goo people, don't see it happening, but who knows.

Roamed
01-31-2010, 07:55 PM
I think he now has as good of a shot as he had in 06 and 07. He's less likely to meet and be stopped by Rafa at RG because of all Rafa's troubles imo, though that depends on the draw, but on the other hand Del Potro if healthy poses a threat at RG and probably again at USO. Others like Djoko, Davy, maybe Cilic, can all be dangerous. So I think the field are catching up but then again I didn't expect him to win the AO and he did, dropping only two sets along the way, so who knows if he keeps up the form he's shown this tournament.

Some bookies are giving odds as short as 6/1 of it happening, which imo is too short, but we'll see I guess.

Mechlan
01-31-2010, 07:57 PM
With his only real rival continuing to be sidelined with injuries and a dominating performance vs. Murray, does Roger have a legit shot at winning all 4 this year?

Seriously? Every year there's a thread and every year it's bogus. You're pretty level headed, not sure why you decided to start this up.

abraxas21
01-31-2010, 07:58 PM
Lol, from being too old and 'should retire for his fans' last year, now people see him winning the calendar slam. Long way to goo people, don't see it happening, but who knows.

The funny thing is that if Fed had lost today, the same old comments about "Federer needs to retire" or that "he's too old" would have been repeated time and time again.

That's how strong perceptions change with only 1 match on MTF.

oranges
01-31-2010, 08:01 PM
Not happening

Commander Data
01-31-2010, 08:15 PM
Still very long ways to go. I don't think he does it. But he sure has realistic chance, that is razy enough by itself.

dombrfc
01-31-2010, 08:17 PM
Even if he does it'll be because he got lucky, and the other players were injured or choked, or Federer took too many toilet breaks, or said something unsporting to the press.


Seriously, I guess he has a shot. Largely depended on Nadal's condition at RG.
All 4 finals is quite likely id suggest.

vn01
01-31-2010, 08:26 PM
I don't think so.At RG,Del Potro could defeat him.He will win Wimbledon,may be and in New York Del Potro or Nole could stop him.So,I will say 2 titles this year

Sophocles
01-31-2010, 08:39 PM
Unlikely. Too many players can beat him. Nadal would almost certainly beat him at R.G., Del Potro might. Roddick nearly beat him at Wimbledon last year; Nadal could this year, as conceivably could Murray (don't laugh - this defeat hurt, and he may learn lessons from it, just as Del Potro learnt from that appalling A.O. beatdown last year). And any one of Del Potro, Cilic, Djokovic, or Murray could beat him at the U.S.O. I shouldn't be surprised if he picked up one of the 3, but more than that, I doubt.

DrJules
01-31-2010, 08:45 PM
Very unlikely - plexicushion, clay, grass and decoturf in 1 year.

Skyward
01-31-2010, 08:46 PM
Of course, not.

MalwareDie
01-31-2010, 09:00 PM
No. And if he does, it will further prove how terribly weak the tour is.

dombrfc
01-31-2010, 09:03 PM
No. And if he does, it will further prove how terribly weak the tour is.

Of course.

Not that Federers an...alright player.

Silly me.

MrChopin
01-31-2010, 09:06 PM
He'll be lucky to defend his SF streak at RG unless he gets mug-draw. USO is a lost cause, too many better fast hardcourt players that could knock him out by R3. Maybe Wimby, but I've heard that Del Potro and Djokovic have really upped their grass movement, and Tsonga is reported healthy, so...

Diprosalic
01-31-2010, 09:08 PM
it all depends on the french open and nadal.
if nadal never returns to his 08 form he has a damn good shot at RG. he will go with full confidence to Wimbledon.
if he has three in the bag the fourth will be a lock.

it really depends who can raise their grass and sand level and if fed stays healthy till the USO.
i wouldn't bet 10 dollars on fed tbh.

Ibracadabra
01-31-2010, 09:08 PM
If he wins the french i believe he will do it. Del potro is the only man in his path given nadals drastic drop in form and novak just choking.

kengyin
01-31-2010, 09:10 PM
fed can win CYGS

Deejay
01-31-2010, 09:23 PM
It's a possibility and I wouldn't be surprised if he does it.

Federer will reach the final of every slam like he did last year for a start. If Rafa isn't 100% for the French (which is likely as he'll run himself into the ground as always prior) he'll take the French, he owns Wimbledon, USO is the most tricky as most of the top guys play well on that surface but he'll be heavy favourite for that 1 anyway.

Either way it's going to take a monumental performance to beat him in any of those finals so here's hoping someone can step up and make things interesting.

Guga_fan
01-31-2010, 09:23 PM
I doubt someone will beat Nadal at RG, even far from his 2008 form it was necessary a player playing monster tennis and being a bad matchup for him to lose in a tight match. And even if Nadal doesn't win RG, there's still Djokovic and Del Potro. I doubt Federer will lose at Wimbledon and in the US Open Murray, Djokovic or Del Potro can beat him.

Johnny Groove
01-31-2010, 09:32 PM
Seriously? Every year there's a thread and every year it's bogus. You're pretty level headed, not sure why you decided to start this up.

I think Federer has a very slim chance to win all 4, but a chance nonetheless.

The guy is a different animal in Slams. Apart from Nadal, JMDP, and Djokovic, no one has beaten Fed in a slam in forever :shrug:

As long as he stays healthy, he's got a shot. As with his peak years, RG will be the biggest hurdle.

tennisphilia
01-31-2010, 10:13 PM
He reached the last 8 grand slam finals, and all four in 2009. He has now won the first major of the year.
It's going to be a battle but if there is one man who will be the first to win all four Grand Slams in 4 different surfaces, it would be Roger Federer - the best player ever.

And now is the best time for him to do so. Murray may become almost unbeatable next year.

Fed=ATPTourkilla
01-31-2010, 10:33 PM
Murray may become almost unbeatable next year.

Simon R! I wondered if you had a secret alias on here. :)

tennisphilia
01-31-2010, 10:36 PM
Simon R! I wondered if you had a secret alias on here. :)

Who is Simon R?
It's not secret. Even keen observers of the game such as Agassi and McEnroe are pointing to Murray as the next big thing.

r2473
01-31-2010, 10:36 PM
I think he has a better chance than everyone else :)

Baghdatis72
01-31-2010, 10:40 PM
With his only real rival continuing to be sidelined with injuries and a dominating performance vs. Murray, does Roger have a legit shot at winning all 4 this year?

Very possible unless there is a big surprise looming. Without Rafa in form he is the favorite to win RG. He is the favorite to win Wimbledon and the US Open as usual anyway so unless one of the others has an epiphany and pulls the upset, then there isn't much oposition really.
Just by the fact that he only dropped 2 sets on his way to win AO this year against Davydenko and Andreev (having lost to Davydenko in the previous 2 matches), says a lot.

ayloKolya
01-31-2010, 10:43 PM
Davydenko could take him at RG, if federer isnt in his best form and davydenko is playing really well. Even if he lost to federer at the AO for a set and a half he blew federer away which no other person in the tournament could do.

Fed=ATPTourkilla
01-31-2010, 10:43 PM
Might do it. RG will be interesting if Nadal's draw goes (QF) Del Potro, (SF) Djokovic, (F) Federer.

A lot of people are playing up Djokovic's chances of beating Federer at the US Open. In the last 3 years Djoko has played Fed 3 times at the USO and has won one set from 10.

In his defence, the sets have been close and he played very well in both 2008 and 2009.

2007 (F) Federer d Djokovic 7–6(4), 7–6(2), 6–4

2008 (SF) Federer d Djokovic 6–3, 5–7, 7–5, 6–2

2009 (SF) Federer d Djokovic 7-6, 7-5, 7-5

Baghdatis72
01-31-2010, 10:45 PM
Davydenko could take him at RG, if federer isnt in his best form and davydenko is playing really well. Even if he lost to federer at the AO for a set and a half he blew federer away which no other person in the tournament could do.

Problem with Kolya is that sometimes he just switches off all of a sudden and gets hammered badly. If he can keep his level at its highest then he can beat Federer but I don't see it happening in 5 sets yet.

Persimmon
01-31-2010, 11:42 PM
Very difficult.

Bilbo
01-31-2010, 11:48 PM
i say yes

his chance is pretty high with nadal "out of the game" and if he does he will become the best athlete of all-time imo.

lucky one, roger

Macbrother
01-31-2010, 11:51 PM
It's not so out of the question. But this should be posted after RG, if he, somehow manages to win it (remember how many 5-setters he played there last year, not to mention he (hopefully) has to go through Nadal) then we can start whispering about this impossible, legendary achievement. Until then, really way too early imo.

Ivanatis
01-31-2010, 11:51 PM
Nadal's shape in Paris could be the decisive factor here.

spec7er
02-01-2010, 12:21 AM
Too early to properly gauge this. There is a chance, of course. He's made the finals in all four in a year, so he pretty much knows what it takes to reach the Grand Slam and he's the only player in this generation, who can claim that.

I think clay will be the most crucial. Longer rallies might expose his ground game (not that it's bad, but it's not as strong as a couple of years ago). He owns Wimbledon and will always be a favorite in the fast courts.

Arkulari
02-01-2010, 12:26 AM
He's practically a lock for Wimbledon but RG (Rafa, Nole and Juan) and USO (Nole and Juan) remain the big question marks

I don't see it happening unless he gets very lucky with his draws and can avoid Juan and Rafa

HarryMan
02-01-2010, 12:32 AM
Come on guys, how premature to start these kind of threads even for someone like Federer.

Some time ago, he has a washed up guy according to the major portion of the crowd here, and now he can win all four slam titles?

Federer had always had that chance because of his all court game and unbelieveable fitness but lets not get ahead of ourselves yet. If Nadal drops below to 5 or something, we might get a Federer - Nadal QF at RG. I don't rule out that possibility (of him winning all four in one year), however, just like I didn't in previous years.

I know Federer has just about the best chance amongst anyone to ever do it, but for now, he has won back his AO crown. As a fan (or someone who loves this game), I would say just enjoy this great man's career without having any strings attached (like if he does this then...).

I feel previleged to watch him play.

LinkMage
02-01-2010, 12:57 AM
No way. He blew his chance of holding all 4 Slams at the same time by choking to Del Mugtro in last year's USO final.

tennisphilia
02-01-2010, 01:23 AM
No way. He blew his chance of holding all 4 Slams at the same time by choking to Del Mugtro in last year's USO final.

I dont think he choked. Del Potro was just playing above his league.

Federer=God
02-01-2010, 01:30 AM
Anyone who thinks he isn't a shot is retarded. He was a few points from winning the US and he really should have won the AO last year.

Fit Nadal, Del Potro and a few others will be huge problems at the French.

Fed should win Wimby.

US open he is as good, if not a better chance than anyone else.

Come Roland Garros his prospects will be more clear. He hasn't missed a slam final in over 2 years though, so I laugh at the people who say 'no chance'.

Bargearse
02-01-2010, 01:30 AM
They say it's better to be lucky than good. Well, in Rogers' case he's lucky AND good. He took care of Murray easier than I thought he would last night and he really looked dominant. At the FO, I think he can rely on Rafa getting beaten by someone else en route to the title again (this is where the luck comes in). Wimbledon is probably already locked in - Nike have probably already produced a #18 jacket for him to wear when he wins the Wimbledon title & the US Open, well, he will have learned from last years' mistake and not blow a lead and will take the title and the CYGS. I reckon it's now or never.

Audacity
02-01-2010, 01:35 AM
No.

ElijasHsieh
02-01-2010, 01:47 AM
I don't think Federer will gain all GSs this year, but I would like to see this to happen:D

If Nadal could come back to court with healthy situation totally, Federer would not take FO easily.

If Djokovic could maintain his fitness through the two-week GSs and if Murray could overcome the pressure loaded inside his mind to some extent, Federer would not take UO easily.


Hope Federer could take at least 2/4 this year;), though only with the AO having satisfied me already.:worship:

r2473
02-01-2010, 02:54 AM
I dont think he choked. Del Potro was just playing above his league.

New around here?

This is MTF. There are only two options. You either WIN or CHOKE.

MrChopin
02-01-2010, 03:03 AM
Del Potro and Davydenko (and Djokovic, to a lesser extent) are the two he needs to watch for at RG and USO. He seems to have Murray's number at the moment, and unless Nadal is moving well, Fed should beat him.

BigJohn
02-01-2010, 03:11 AM
New around here?

This is MTF. There are only two options. You either WIN or CHOKE.

Some have also been known to retire.

paseo
02-01-2010, 03:16 AM
Yes, he will. You heard it here first, folks! Quote me after USO10.

My predictions have been hot :cool:

ChinoRios4Ever
02-01-2010, 05:29 AM
Great chances this year if Rafa stays injuried for RG. Wimbledon is a lock and in the USO you never know, even if he plays with the chance of his life to win the CYGS.

SheepleBuster
02-01-2010, 05:29 AM
No. But who cares man. Win 4 more slams and 20 will look good on his resume.

HKz
02-01-2010, 05:44 AM
Would be extremely difficult to do so. Defending his RG title would be the tough part, especially with these huge hitters around. Naturally, players like Del Potro, Soderling, Cilic, etc will be quite an opposition for anyone from their height allowing them to take bigger cuts more comfortably obviously. But I think even at Roger's age compared to the rest, it is still feasible and imaginable. He must have a lot of confidence right now regaining this title after 2 years of not having it, so I would imagine he is really pumped up for defending RG/Wimbledon. But like some others have said here, if he can defend RG, I really like his chances. It will definitely be a very interesting year with the whole field, looking forward to all the tournaments.

I dont think he choked. Del Potro was just playing above his league.

What match were you watching? :confused: They were both playing poor. Del Potro just happened to play less poor than Roger after the 3rd set.

coonster14
02-01-2010, 06:22 AM
hope not, the guy has won enough, want to see some other players winning slams for a change.

hopefully del potro, rafa, nole, muzza can stop that from happening.

MariaV
02-01-2010, 06:55 AM
:zzz: :zzz: :zzz: :zzz: :zzz:

madmax17
02-01-2010, 07:19 AM
Wasn't there a similar thread last year when Fed lost to Nadal in AO "Will Federer ever win another GS?!?" :lol: stop your voodoo now.

Thanos
02-01-2010, 07:26 AM
the goat has this in the bag. roger majestic style of play and superior personality is a god among men. the swiss maestro will be winning roland garros,wimbledon and us open without losing a set this year.

i'm feel so privileged to witness the greatest man to ever pick up a racquet.

long live the king!!!

:worship: :worship: :worship:

manadrainer
02-01-2010, 07:47 AM
I don't know... defending FO will be tough for Fed... however, if he can do that, I don't see him losing Wimbledon and I like his chances at USO! We'll check back after the FO I think!

Dougie
02-01-2010, 07:49 AM
I don't know... defending FO will be tough for Fed... however, if he can do that, I don't see him losing Wimbledon and I like his chances at USO! We'll check back after the FO I think!

Yup, if he wins the French, then he´s got a chance. But I don´t see it happening.

Sophocles
02-01-2010, 09:42 AM
Why are people assuming Nadal won't be fit at the French? He's out for a month, not 6 months. He'll be fit well before the clay season starts & will no doubt play himself into form when it does.

R.Federer
02-01-2010, 09:51 AM
Wow, we have come full cycle.

Exactly one year ago, the day after the AO finals, threads were like "Will Federer ever win a Slam again?", "Will Federer ever win a match again?". "Federer will never catch Sampras". Now, we are talking about the Feds winning the CYGS. Karma!

Sunset of Age
02-01-2010, 10:21 AM
This is so funny. Nice attempt, Jon. :lol:
Last year, the media were hyping up Rafa's chances to do it, this year I heard Wilander immediately after Roger's victory yapping about 'him having a good chance to win the CYGS'. Fergodssakes people, winning the AO means that you've merely managed to take the first step, and there are still three very tough ones to follow!
The answer to me is a resounding 'NO!'. Federer did play fantastically in the AO final, but apparently everyone's already forgotten his lacklustre performance at the latest USO. He'll have that kind of performances again at times... and besides this, I trust (hope? :scared:) Rafa to do all in his might to come back fully fit come RG and Wimbledon at least, if not earlier. Sure he'll have a say in the matter as well. :)

silverwhite
02-01-2010, 11:27 AM
Nice attempted jinx but Federer won't achieve the CYGS with or without this thread :lol:

chalkdust
02-01-2010, 11:42 AM
Might do it. RG will be interesting if Nadal's draw goes (QF) Del Potro, (SF) Djokovic, (F) Federer.

Fed will probably not (30:70) win RG but he obviously has a shot at it. A lot will depend on his draw there and on Rafa's fitness. I mean Fed's draw could conceivably look like this:

R1 Nalbandian/Ancic
R2 Tipsarevic/Mathieu/Gulbis (Hmm, pretty easy)
R3 Haas/Wawrinka/Ferrero/Monaco
R4 Gonzalez/Monfils/Verdasco
QF Nadal/Davydenko/Soderling
SF Djokovic
F Del Potro

At Wimbledon, he could be stopped by Nadal/Roddick/Murray and might have to beat all three. Win probability 75:25.

At USO, I'd give him a 50:50 chance - he could again have a monstrous draw, e.g.:

R4 Cilic
QF Davydenko/Nadal
SF Djokovic/Murray
F Del Potro

So, doing the calculations, I'd say his chances of the Grand Slam are: 30% * 75% * 50% = 11.25%.

Looking at oddschecker, I see you can get prices of between 12:1 and 6:1 against, i.e. between 7.69% and 14.29% respectively. That seems to tally quite well with my own view.

Persimmon
02-01-2010, 11:44 AM
No way.

bokehlicious
02-01-2010, 11:55 AM
the goat has this in the bag. roger majestic style of play and superior personality is a god among men. the swiss maestro will be winning roland garros,wimbledon and us open without losing a set this year.

i'm feel so privileged to witness the greatest man to ever pick up a racquet.

long live the king!!!

:worship: :worship: :worship:

You're so funny, guy, you really are :worship:



:retard: :retard: :retard:

andylovesaustin
02-01-2010, 12:10 PM
Considering how things changed so quickly for Nadal last year, I think it's too soon to tell about Roger's chances.

momo_momo
02-01-2010, 01:52 PM
Nope he won't. Someone will save tennis from further extinction.

Dini
02-01-2010, 02:20 PM
Fed said he doesn't believe he can with Rafa playing RG.

I think AO will be his sole slam this year.

Andresito
02-01-2010, 02:55 PM
Don't think so.

He's gonna win Wimbledon. Roland Garros and US Open are much more competitive, specially with so many big hitters around like Del Potro and Cilic.

manuel84
02-01-2010, 04:24 PM
Well, who knows? He won't admit it but I'm quite sure it's at the back of his mind.

Baghdatis72
02-01-2010, 09:23 PM
Fed will probably not (30:70) win RG but he obviously has a shot at it. A lot will depend on his draw there and on Rafa's fitness. I mean Fed's draw could conceivably look like this:

R1 Nalbandian/Ancic
R2 Tipsarevic/Mathieu/Gulbis (Hmm, pretty easy)
R3 Haas/Wawrinka/Ferrero/Monaco
R4 Gonzalez/Monfils/Verdasco
QF Nadal/Davydenko/Soderling
SF Djokovic
F Del Potro

At Wimbledon, he could be stopped by Nadal/Roddick/Murray and might have to beat all three. Win probability 75:25.

At USO, I'd give him a 50:50 chance - he could again have a monstrous draw, e.g.:

R4 Cilic
QF Davydenko/Nadal
SF Djokovic/Murray
F Del Potro

So, doing the calculations, I'd say his chances of the Grand Slam are: 30% * 75% * 50% = 11.25%.

Looking at oddschecker, I see you can get prices of between 12:1 and 6:1 against, i.e. between 7.69% and 14.29% respectively. That seems to tally quite well with my own view.

He might have to beat all three at Wimbledon but he might only have to beat 1 of them or even none of them if he is lucky. Someone else might beat them or they might be injured and not even participate.

I would say Fed has today, at the higher end, a 40% chance to win RG, 85% chance to win Wimbledon and 75% to win the US Open this year. In all 25.5% to complete the CYGS.
At the lower end your probabilities look reasonable which give a chance of 11.25% to complete CYGS.

Overall a range of [11.2,25.5] but based on speculation only.

magnoliaewan
02-01-2010, 09:27 PM
I'm going to say yes because that would be awesome but it would be hard...really hard.

Apemant
02-01-2010, 09:55 PM
He might have to beat all three at Wimbledon but he might only have to beat 1 of them or even none of them if he is lucky. Someone else might beat them or they might be injured and not even participate.

I would say Fed has today, at the higher end, a 40% chance to win RG, 85% chance to win Wimbledon and 75% to win the US Open this year. In all 25.5% to complete the CYGS.
At the lower end your probabilities look reasonable which give a chance of 11.25% to complete CYGS.

Overall a range of [11.2,25.5] but based on speculation only.


40% is too much for RG, even 30%. Provided Nadal is healthy, even 25% chance of winning RG is actually pretty optimistic, you know. Realistic would be like 10-15% for RG - pessimistic even lower.

You guys forgetting a GS is 7 matches - not just the final. Even Federer isn't guaranteed to reach every GS final this year. So I'd say something like 15% RG, around 60% Wimby and 50% USO, yielding just below 5% chance of winning all three.

buzz
02-01-2010, 10:13 PM
40% is too much for RG, even 30%. Provided Nadal is healthy, even 25% chance of winning RG is actually pretty optimistic, you know. Realistic would be like 10-15% for RG - pessimistic even lower.

You guys forgetting a GS is 7 matches - not just the final. Even Federer isn't guaranteed to reach every GS final this year. So I'd say something like 15% RG, around 60% Wimby and 50% USO, yielding just below 5% chance of winning all three.

Then you must think federer is in decline or the field is catching up. If you count from peak Federer, Federer won 1 of 5 FO (I think federer was only peak on clay since 2005) =20%. he won 6 of 7 wim= 86%. He won 5 of 7 USO= 71%. RG WIM USO in a row=12%. In GS I don't realy see him playing much worse lately, Pretty consistent guy this Federer. Only 2008 wasn't that great. If (a big IF) he wins the French, I would think he might get them all.

jcempire
02-01-2010, 10:19 PM
If Nadal outs..... Maybe yes

but If Nadal wins the RG.....

Apemant
02-01-2010, 10:20 PM
Then you must think federer is in decline or the field is catching up. If you count from peak Federer, Federer won 1 of 5 FO (I think federer was only peak on clay since 2005) =20%. he won 6 of 7 wim= 86%. He won 5 of 7 USO= 71%. RG WIM USO in a row=12%. In GS I don't realy see him playing much worse lately, Pretty consistent guy this Federer. Only 2008 wasn't that great. If (a big IF) he wins the French, I would think he might get them all.

1 out of 5 FO, but that 1 was when Nadal wasn't in the final.

I don't do that kind of math; I check each match independently. Suppose Federer plays Murray in some round in Wimby. What odds would you give him? Then suppose he plays Nadal in some other round. What odds would you give him?

Multiply those odds with the odds of him playing them in the first place... then factor in that he's not exactly 100% to win the other 6 matches, etc.

With RG it's even more straightforward. Suppose Federer plays Nadal in the final. Would you give him 40% chance of winning? I wouldn't - but even if you would, it would mean he's 100% to beat the other 6 guys, to have a cummulative chance of 40% to win RG. It's way too much, IMO.

Perhaps my numbers are a little bit on the pessimistic side (that's how I am), but I don't think they are ways off. :shrug: Winning a CYGS is obviously extremely hard (and therefore rare) even for Federer.

Sophocles
02-01-2010, 10:23 PM
Chance is somewhere between 5% & 10%. He played well in Australia, but let's not forget, if Davydenko hadn't missed an easy backhand, Fed would have lost in the quarters.

Apemant
02-01-2010, 10:33 PM
Chance is somewhere between 5% & 10%. He played well in Australia, but let's not forget, if Davydenko hadn't missed an easy backhand, Fed would have lost in the quarters.

Perhaps. :devil: I'd say, if he didn't miss that BH, there would be like 75% chance of Fed losing. :haha:

But of course, I'm taking these numbers right out of my ar$e. LOL.

luie
02-02-2010, 12:10 AM
I say YES even if nadull plays RG. Nadull is a scared girly pansy that fed will beat comprehesively in RG just like he beat him @ HOME Madrid 09.
He!He! Now waiting for the haters reply.

chalkdust
02-02-2010, 12:31 PM
40% is too much for RG, even 30%. Provided Nadal is healthy, even 25% chance of winning RG is actually pretty optimistic, you know. Realistic would be like 10-15% for RG - pessimistic even lower.

You guys forgetting a GS is 7 matches - not just the final. Even Federer isn't guaranteed to reach every GS final this year. So I'd say something like 15% RG, around 60% Wimby and 50% USO, yielding just below 5% chance of winning all three.

Yes, well I'm assigning something like a 30% chance that Nadal is not in good enough condition to really challenge at RG this year. Obviously this is difficult to call.

So my thoughts were:
Nadal healthyish: Fed has 20% chance (mainly because someone else might beat Nadal)
Nadal not really fit: Fed has 50% chance (I see Delpo as 30%+ and others 20%-). This is not based on his performance at RG last year because I think then he was obviously very tight (he maybe thought this was his one shot at RG) and anyway he is now just playing better generally and is very relaxed but still working hard.

So, 70% * 20% = 14%
30% * 50% = 15%
Total chance = 29%

... or something like that.

Sophocles
02-02-2010, 12:44 PM
^ But why shouldn't Nadal be fit? He's out for a month. That should actually do him good compared with last year, when he peaked too early in the season.

chalkdust
02-02-2010, 01:22 PM
Well, he should be, that's why I say there is a 70% chance of him being in good enough condition to win. I think there have to be question-marks given the run he has had since last year's clay-court season and I'm not sure anyone's expecting him to be "as good as new".

JesusFederer
02-04-2010, 08:31 PM
Its possible. The FO will be the big test. If he wins there we know Wimby is in teh bag. With only teh USO standing between the GOAT and the GS, i think we know what teh result is gonna be...

DrJules
02-04-2010, 08:38 PM
^ But why shouldn't Nadal be fit? He's out for a month. That should actually do him good compared with last year, when he peaked too early in the season.

He has not been fully fit for about 8 months.

Quakes
02-05-2010, 06:55 AM
In a rather optimistic estimation, he has a 50% chance to win RG, 80% chance to win Wimby, and 75% chance to win USO.

Assuming they are independent events, that gives a 50% * 80% * 75% = 30% chance for a CYGS.

So, no.

saniapower
02-05-2010, 10:47 AM
100% chance of winning Wimby :rocker2:

saniapower
02-05-2010, 10:48 AM
But Federer win not the CYGS