Next "surprise" Slam winner? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Next "surprise" Slam winner?

Fed=ATPTourkilla
06-17-2009, 12:04 PM
Not so long ago, outsiders could triumph at Slams. Now it is almost inconceivable that someone outside the top four could win one. In fact, it's unlikely that someone other than Federer or Nadal will do the job. I don't think many people actually believe that Djokovic or Murray can go through both Federer and Nadal at Wimbledon (maybe a few of the extremists like Clydey or one of the Serb-tards). Maybe at the US Open, though.

When will the next "outsider" (defined as someone outside the top 8) next win a Slam?

DJ Soup
06-17-2009, 02:32 PM
US Open has Delpo as a big candidate and he's not top 4.

Next year I smell big changes

edit: oh, outside top 8?
not happening

Fumus
06-17-2009, 03:10 PM
US Open has Delpo as a big candidate and he's not top 4.

Next year I smell big changes

edit: oh, outside top 8?
not happening

I don't know there's plenty of dangerous players that could win one were they to put it all together...Baghdatis, Gulbis, Soderling etc. just to name a few.

Bazooka
06-17-2009, 03:17 PM
Did you by chance watch the last FO? we were at a few balls from watching a Gonzalez-Haas final.

Nadal is consistent, but not as incredibly consistent as Federer in slams. Djokovic looked like a lock to all the semis too, watch him now. Really, once Federer loses his current momentum and goes down a notch in form, anyone could be in a slam final and get a win, as Nadal is good but far from invincible outside clay and can't stay on top form longer than six months per year. And sometimes the wrong six months, like this year.

rofe
06-17-2009, 03:20 PM
Soderling almost did it at the FO. If JDMP or Haas had defeated Fed, Soderling had a very good chance to get his 1st slam. This means that the problem for the next surprise slam winner is the top 4. If they are somehow eliminated in a slam, someone outside the top 8 could claim their 1st slam. The top 4 however are pretty consistent so it could take a while.

rubbERR
06-17-2009, 03:26 PM
Soderling French open run was fluke, wont happen again, surprise winner...Murray ;)

DJ Soup
06-17-2009, 03:30 PM
I don't know there's plenty of dangerous players that could win one were they to put it all together...Baghdatis, Gulbis, Soderling etc. just to name a few.

There's only one not top 8 guy who COULD penetrate the Top 5 barrier to win a GS, that's Nalbandian. I cannot see any other player that can overcome the HUGE WALL that is the current Top 5.

Sure, you can hold an argument based on what happened on RG09, but there will always be at least 2 Top5 in the semi finals. Besides, RG is known to be the GS non-top8 have more chances to reach to the final.
When it comes to nontop08 player on fire, Federer has proved once and again and again that he has the power to water them down.

I just think this top 5 is one of the strongest in such a long time that it is hard to see any other kind of outcome.

rofe
06-17-2009, 03:32 PM
Soderling French open run was fluke, wont happen again, surprise winner...Murray ;)

Murray is not outside the top 8.

Beat
06-17-2009, 03:34 PM
When will the next "outsider" (defined as someone outside the top 8) next win a Slam?

i think even players ranked 4-8 must be considered "outsiders" at slams. ;)

rubbERR
06-17-2009, 03:36 PM
Murray is not outside the top 8.

And? He has 0 slams

Burrow
06-17-2009, 03:38 PM
There's only one not top 8 guy who COULD penetrate the Top 5 barrier to win a GS, that's Nalbandian. I cannot see any other player that can overcome the HUGE WALL that is the current Top 5.

Sure, you can hold an argument based on what happened on RG09, but there will always be at least 2 Top5 in the semi finals. Besides, RG is known to be the GS non-top8 have more chances to reach to the final.
When it comes to nontop08 player on fire, Federer has proved once and again and again that he has the power to water them down.

I just think this top 5 is one of the strongest in such a long time that it is hard to see any other kind of outcome.

Nalbandian? You have to be joking.

rofe
06-17-2009, 03:38 PM
And? He has 0 slams

The OP wants to know who outside the top 8 is going to win a slam.

DJ Soup
06-17-2009, 03:46 PM
Nalbandian? You have to be joking.
read the word "COULD"
of course he can't now, he's recovering from surgery

Burrow
06-17-2009, 03:51 PM
I did read the word could, but that could be used for any other player at all outside the top 8, any of them could.

Nalbandian will never win a slam nor reach another slam final.

CmonAussie
06-17-2009, 04:00 PM
...
Hope Tsonga can pull it off,, he`s got to be an outside chance @ Wimby.!!

Fed=ATPTourkilla
06-17-2009, 05:08 PM
The poll options overlap a bit - sorry about that!

I remember the days when people could come out of nowhere and win a Slam. Nowadays it seems inconceivable that anyone outside the top 4 - let alone the top 8 or top 16 - could break through the Fed/Rafa wall. At the moment, I find it very difficult to conceive of an "outsider" going all the way.

The question ties in a bit with all the (by now quite boring) debates about whether this is a question of Fed/Rafa being exceptionally good or everyone else on tour being exceptionally weak.

tennishero
06-17-2009, 06:13 PM
I did read the word could, but that could be used for any other player at all outside the top 8, any of them could.

Nalbandian will never win a slam nor reach another slam final.

soderling only has a fraction of nalbandian's talent, yet he made the finals.

Doomach777
06-17-2009, 07:08 PM
Ljubo LEGENDA Wimbledon 2009

DJ Soup
06-17-2009, 07:58 PM
The poll options overlap a bit - sorry about that!

I remember the days when people could come out of nowhere and win a Slam. Nowadays it seems inconceivable that anyone outside the top 4 - let alone the top 8 or top 16 - could break through the Fed/Rafa wall. At the moment, I find it very difficult to conceive of an "outsider" going all the way.

The question ties in a bit with all the (by now quite boring) debates about whether this is a question of Fed/Rafa being exceptionally good or everyone else on tour being exceptionally weak.

There isn't just a Fed/Rafa wall, but also a Murray/Djoko/Delpo wall.

Fed=ATPTourkilla
06-17-2009, 08:43 PM
There isn't just a Fed/Rafa wall, but also a Murray/Djoko/Delpo wall.

Well, not really. Delpo = 0 slams. Murray = 0 slams. Djoko = 1 slam (beating an unwell Federer). Fed/Rafa = 20 slams with plenty more to come.

It wouldn't be that much of a surprise if Murray or Djoko managed to breach the Fed/Rafa wall but it is still a Fed/Rafa wall. :)

pray-for-palestine-and-israel
06-17-2009, 09:46 PM
Does Del potro count as a suprise winner?

thats my bet

DJ Soup
06-18-2009, 12:31 AM
Well, not really. Delpo = 0 slams. Murray = 0 slams. Djoko = 1 slam (beating an unwell Federer). Fed/Rafa = 20 slams with plenty more to come.

It wouldn't be that much of a surprise if Murray or Djoko managed to breach the Fed/Rafa wall but it is still a Fed/Rafa wall. :)

Well, I beg to differ. In this case the slam count does not show that there are 5 really tough players. It is more a matter of being consistently at the semifinals. And while the top 4 semifinalists didnt happen, I think there are more chances of happening in the future.