Make or Break [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Make or Break

KaiserT
02-13-2009, 05:29 AM
Started a thread previously, but as is typical of me got lazy and stopped updating, so stupidly feel the need to start another one...

Basically I've made a very decent amount of profit from gambling overall, and especially in the last 6 or so months. I've had my fair share of big wins, and big losses, the losses ironically coming when I've backed selections big at shortish prices and questionable value.

I certainly feel that the odd instance of ill-discipline has restricted me so far, and I hope this thread will help me steer away from that as much as possible.

So I'm going to lay it all on the line here, mainly betting tennis, but also some football and boxing. Hope to really make the game pay now and I'm going to take an aggressive approach with regards to staking.

I'll post all my pre-match selections (hopefully with some sort of write-up) and aim to post inrunning bets on here too, although obviously I might have to aftertime once in a while as there simply might not be time and I want this thread to be an accurate reflection of exactly how I'm doing.

This is make or break, now or never, and if worst comes to worst........ hey I'm only playing with profits.

£4000 Bank (was gonna do points but at the end of the day that's just annoying).

Welcome anyone to discuss any of my bets or methods, or pass on any valuable info :D

KaiserT
02-13-2009, 05:41 AM
£4000 Bank

Bet 1
Cleverly to beat Onyango on Points @ 5.5 - Ladbrokes - £40

Think this represents a touch of value, although very small stakes as a fair few negatives.

Positives - Cleverly weak puncher, light at the weight, just 4KOs in 14 fights. Opponent KO'd just once in a 21 fight career which has seen him comile a 18-3 record.

Negatives - Opponent opposition questionable, KO'd just two fights ago (but by a natuaral light-heavy with 21KOs in 29 fights. This looks a set-up fight for Cleverly, Onyango is a natural super-middle too and Warren wants to make Clevery as promotable as possible for upcoming fights........ chance Onyango is just a stiff sent to fall.

Basically Cleverly isn't a big puncher, only 4KO's in 14 outings, and at least two of those were via body shots, his opponent is a bit of an unknown, but has only suffered one KO in his career, via a big punching light-heavy with a 29(21KOs) record two fights ago. He's done the full 12 rounds just once in his career c

but wary of staking bigger due a couple of reasons.

KaiserT
02-13-2009, 05:54 AM
£4000 Bank

Bet 2
FC Utrecht Draw'No'Bet @ 1.85 - Sportingbet - £280

Confident selection here, with two teams in massively contrasting form.

Willem II in dire form at the moment, 1 win out of 10 and that came with a 3-2 over whipping boys Sparta. Utrecht's form is great, with the only one loss in their last 11 being a defeat to Eredivise's best AZ. Utrecht won here 4-1 last season, and with their current great goalscoring form a similar result is not out of the question.

ryan23
02-13-2009, 12:34 PM
Best of luck with your selections in this thread

KaiserT
02-13-2009, 11:17 PM
£4000 Bank

Bet 1
Cleverly to beat Onyango on Points @ 5.5 - Ladbrokes - £40

Think this represents a touch of value, although very small stakes as a fair few negatives.

Positives - Cleverly weak puncher, light at the weight, just 4KOs in 14 fights. Opponent KO'd just once in a 21 fight career which has seen him comile a 18-3 record.

Negatives - Opponent opposition questionable, KO'd just two fights ago (but by a natuaral light-heavy with 21KOs in 29 fights. This looks a set-up fight for Cleverly, Onyango is a natural super-middle too and Warren wants to make Clevery as promotable as possible for upcoming fights........ chance Onyango is just a stiff sent to fall.

Basically Cleverly isn't a big puncher, only 4KO's in 14 outings, and at least two of those were via body shots, his opponent is a bit of an unknown, but has only suffered one KO in his career, via a big punching light-heavy with a 29(21KOs) record two fights ago. He's done the full 12 rounds just once in his career c

but wary of staking bigger due a couple of reasons.

£4000 Bank

Bet 2
FC Utrecht Draw'No'Bet @ 1.85 - Sportingbet - £280

Confident selection here, with two teams in massively contrasting form.

Willem II in dire form at the moment, 1 win out of 10 and that came with a 3-2 over whipping boys Sparta. Utrecht's form is great, with the only one loss in their last 11 being a defeat to Eredivise's best AZ. Utrecht won here 4-1 last season, and with their current great goalscoring form a similar result is not out of the question.

Bet 1: Lost - £40........... absolutely pathetic Warren set-up donkey, KO'd in first round lol.

Bet 2: Won + £238........... Won 2-0 and justified a big bet here :)

+ 198 for the day/overall.

BANK £4198

Bolar Bolabi
02-14-2009, 12:05 AM
Good luck!

KaiserT
02-14-2009, 01:40 AM
Bet 3
Haas +4 games (vs Roddick)@ 1.73 - Skybet

Nice line in a match that should be tight, and once that I can see going either way, should also see at least one tb along the line too. Small bet but a decent play.

KaiserT
02-14-2009, 01:41 AM
Good luck!

Best of luck with your selections in this thread


Cheers :)

KaiserT
02-14-2009, 09:11 AM
Bet 3
Haas +4 games (vs Roddick)@ 1.73 - Skybet

Nice line in a match that should be tight, and once that I can see going either way, should also see at least one tb along the line too. Small bet but a decent play.

PUSH

KaiserT
02-14-2009, 10:15 AM
BANK £4198

Bet 4
Robredo to beat Bellucci @1.4 Paddy power - £200.

Basically I think the matchup is all in Boredo's favour and that he should be able to extract enough errors from the erratic but talented homeboy to clinch a fairly comfortable victory.

Small chance that Bellucci manages to play inspired tennis for long enough to claim 2 sets, but quite frankly I can't see it happening. Price might have been bigger on Robredo had he not destroyed a very tired Acasuso, someone who has a relatively similar (but generally superior) game to Bellucci, still I'm willing to bet at this price, albeit with a smaller stake than I had planned.

KaiserT
02-14-2009, 11:26 AM
Bet 5
Super League: Levadiakos v PAOK - Levadiakos clean sheet @ 3.00 with Sportingbet - £20 (away team under 0.5 goals).

This season, Levadiakos have blanked their opponents in eight of their 10 home games and in their last 22 at home managed a clean sheet 15 times. PAOK failed to score 16 times in 25 on the road since the start of last season, including all of their last three.

Tip taken from bettorlogic.com - I know very little about the Greek league but this looks to be outstanding value and is worth a small bet.

KaiserT
02-14-2009, 12:23 PM
Bet 6
Valencia vs Malaga Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.66 Skybet/Coral/StanJames - £240

Ok, I don't really like over 2.5 Goal bets, guess I'm not naturally a positive person ;) but the stats here are too compelling to let this one slide.

Primera Liga: Valencia v Malaga (Sat 21:00)
+2.5 goals, +3.5 goals: Games at the Mestalla are great for the fans with 25 of 30 ending with three goals or more (including all of the last eight) and seven of the last eight exceeding three goals. Of Valencia’s last 11 at home against the top half, 10 saw three goals plus. Malaga have seen six of their 10 away games finish with +2.5 goals with half making-up the +3.5 market.

(Writeup from bettorlogic.com)

I should really play the Over 3.5s too, but will leave it at 2.5 for now.

Henry Chinaski
02-14-2009, 03:22 PM
best of luck with this Kaiser. might tail you on Robredo. I gave up betting on anything other than tennis though.

Iván
02-14-2009, 07:45 PM
Keep up the good work kaiser

KaiserT
02-14-2009, 11:30 PM
Bet 5
Super League: Levadiakos v PAOK - Levadiakos clean sheet @ 3.00 with Sportingbet - £20 (away team under 0.5 goals).

This season, Levadiakos have blanked their opponents in eight of their 10 home games and in their last 22 at home managed a clean sheet 15 times. PAOK failed to score 16 times in 25 on the road since the start of last season, including all of their last three.

Tip taken from bettorlogic.com - I know very little about the Greek league but this looks to be outstanding value and is worth a small bet.

Bet 6
Valencia vs Malaga Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.66 Skybet/Coral/StanJames - £240

Ok, I don't really like over 2.5 Goal bets, guess I'm not naturally a positive person ;) but the stats here are too compelling to let this one slide.

Primera Liga: Valencia v Malaga (Sat 21:00)
+2.5 goals, +3.5 goals: Games at the Mestalla are great for the fans with 25 of 30 ending with three goals or more (including all of the last eight) and seven of the last eight exceeding three goals. Of Valencia’s last 11 at home against the top half, 10 saw three goals plus. Malaga have seen six of their 10 away games finish with +2.5 goals with half making-up the +3.5 market.

(Writeup from bettorlogic.com)

I should really play the Over 3.5s too, but will leave it at 2.5 for now.

BET 5 - LOST
BET 6 - LOST

Can't believe overs didn't come in there.

Valencia Málaga
19(9) Shots (on Goal) 15(5)

:( % play longterm, but will leave this thread not much above level once/if Boredo wins......

KaiserT
02-15-2009, 01:28 AM
BANK £4198

Bet 4
Robredo to beat Bellucci @1.4 Paddy power - £200.

Basically I think the matchup is all in Boredo's favour and that he should be able to extract enough errors from the erratic but talented homeboy to clinch a fairly comfortable victory.

Small chance that Bellucci manages to play inspired tennis for long enough to claim 2 sets, but quite frankly I can't see it happening. Price might have been bigger on Robredo had he not destroyed a very tired Acasuso, someone who has a relatively similar (but generally superior) game to Bellucci, still I'm willing to bet at this price, albeit with a smaller stake than I had planned.

Won: +80

My worst value bet of the weekend by far.

Bank 4018 lol

KaiserT
02-15-2009, 04:14 AM
BET 7
Sevilla HT/FT (away to Espanyol) @ 4.33 - Ladbrokes - £40.

Espanyol have the league’s worst record when it comes to the double loss result at home. They have been behind at the break 11 times in their last 20 and ended up L/L in nine. This matches well with Sevilla who have the top rating for both half-time leads and W/W results. They have lead at the break in 10 of the last 19 on the road and finished with the double result nine times.

KaiserT
02-15-2009, 04:17 PM
BET 8

Giggs 1st goalscorer 14/1 ew 1/3 1,2,3,4 - Betfred - £12.50 ew.

Derby vs Man Utd.
Giggs plays up front with Ronaldo in a strange United lineup, can't see too many goals in this but at 14/1 for a United foward to score first this is worth a go.

KaiserT
02-16-2009, 01:51 PM
Two small bets lost, pffffft.

So Bank stands at £3953.........

2 bets today

Vliegen £80 at 1.97
Andreev £200 at 1.53 (if he doens't win this he wont carry my money again for a long time).

Outright- Almagro £40ew (£80 total) @ 6.00 Paddy Power