Aussie Open 09 betting odds [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Aussie Open 09 betting odds

Henry Kaspar
09-22-2008, 06:34 PM
A bit early to read too much into this, but things look nice and competitive as of now. There is a big gap between the top 4 and the rest though (quotes taken from the Australian Open home page).

Player Price

R Nadal 7/4
R Federer 6/4
N Djokovic 3/1
A Murray 11/2
J W Tsonga 20/1

J M Del Potro 33/1
D Nalbandian 33/1
A Roddick 33/1
R Gasquet 40/1
N Davydenko 40/1

F Gonzalez 50/1
E Gulbis 50/1
D Ferrer 50/1
T Berdych 66/1
M Youzhny 66/1

M Baghdatis 66/1
L Hewitt 66/1
T Haas 80/1
T Robredo 100/1
J Blake 100/1
M Fish 100/1

ExcaliburII
09-22-2008, 06:37 PM
Big gap between the top3 and the rest ;)


Del Potro is big value, he has proven he is not afraid of big stages.

Probably more nerves were involved in DC match vs Andreev that in a possible GS final.

scarecrows
09-22-2008, 06:37 PM
A bit early to read too much into this,

yes

Nalbandian might win Madrid and Paris again and suddenly he'll be the 3d fav like this year :lol:

Henry Kaspar
09-22-2008, 06:42 PM
Blake has surprisingly poor odds. Sure, he's never been past the final 8 in a slam, but worse odds than Baghdatis and Haas and even odds with Robredo looks rather harsh.

Henry Kaspar
09-22-2008, 06:43 PM
Big gap between the top3 and the rest ;)

Hmmmm --- isn't 11/2 far closer to 3/1 than to 20/1?

ExcaliburII
09-22-2008, 06:43 PM
They all have no chance at all. :shrug:

Blake should be 1,000,000 to 1, biggest loser in Tennis History

ExcaliburII
09-22-2008, 06:44 PM
Hmmmm --- isn't 11/2 far closer to 3/1 than to 20/1?

Yes. Simple Maths. But 5.5 would be an upset, there is a clear division between the big three and Murray. BTW, Murray has no chance at all.

Jaap
09-22-2008, 06:44 PM
Big gap between the top3 and the rest ;)


Del Potro is big value, he has proven he is not afraid of big stages.

Probably more nerves were involved in DC match vs Andreev that in a possible GS final.

Fed or Murray will break his back with slices.

Jaap
09-22-2008, 06:46 PM
Yes. Simple Maths. But 5.5 would be an upset, there is a clear division between the big three and Murray. BTW, Murray has no chance at all.

Murray has bigger chances to win the Aus Open than Nadal.

MIMIC
09-22-2008, 06:51 PM
Nadal should not be #1 and Tsonga should not be #5.

delpiero7
09-22-2008, 06:55 PM
Where are Gilles Muller's odds please?

finishingmove
09-22-2008, 06:57 PM
Nadal should not be #1 and Tsonga should not be #5.

well federer is the top favourite according to those odds.

bjurra
09-22-2008, 07:03 PM
All players outside the top 3 have way too low odds, especially Tsonga, Gulbis, Robredo, Gasquet, Fat Dave and Davydenko.

Henry Kaspar
09-22-2008, 07:05 PM
All players outside the top 3 have way too low odds, especially Tsonga, Gulbis, Robredo, Gasquet, Fat Dave and Davydenko.

Means you should have good chances to make some money with this.

finishingmove
09-22-2008, 07:07 PM
Means you should have good chances to make some money with this.

just how do you figure that? :haha:

Jaap
09-22-2008, 07:13 PM
Nadal should be 4th fav. Never reached a hard court grand slam final, generally is not at his best at the start of the year and Aus Open courts are faster since they changed from rebound ace. He only got to the semis this year because he had the easiest draw in history.

Roddick should be 100/1 instead of 33/1.

Gulbis is far too short at 50/1. More like a 200/1 shot.

I don't understand why Blake is double the price the likes of Gonzo, Gulbis, Ferrer, Berdych are. Of course none of them are going to win it, but Blake has as much or more chances than all of them.

Henry Kaspar
09-22-2008, 07:15 PM
just how do you figure that? :haha:

I guess I misread "their odds are too low" for "their implied chance of winning the tournament is too low".

Horatio Caine
09-22-2008, 07:19 PM
Probably should be in gamblers lounge... ;)

I'm no expert when it comes to outright bets...but I'd imagine that in the current climate (with Federer, Nadal and Djokovic dominating...and Murray, Del Potro etc immediately behind), it is even harder to hedge out a profit with these more long-winded bets (e.g. Blake, Gonzalez, Roddick etc). Sure, now and again one of them breaks through, but you wouldn't expect it to be common-place over the next few years. And where there are surprise SF'ists etc, it seems that those guys really ARE a surprise - e.g. Tsonga AO 2008, Schuettler and Safin Wimby 2008...wouldn't you be backing these fellows once in a blue moon?

ballbasher101
09-22-2008, 07:22 PM
I am surprised that Del pony is at 33-1 :scratch:. Del pony has improved a lot and I think that he is ready to make a big push in the majors. Gasquet breaks my heart with his lack of fight. Gulbis needs a new head because he hits and hits without a clue about what he is doing, if he matures before the Oz open he could do something special.

biological
09-22-2008, 07:23 PM
What about Tipsy? :devil: I just hope he gets a hard draw so he doesn't go all silly.

scarecrows
09-22-2008, 07:23 PM
All players outside the top 3 have way too low odds, especially Tsonga, Gulbis, Robredo, Gasquet, Fat Dave and Davydenko.

because it's way too early, odds will rise when nobody bets on those players

Horatio Caine
09-22-2008, 07:25 PM
Nadal should be 4th fav. Never reached a hard court grand slam final, generally is not at his best at the start of the year and Aus Open courts are faster since they changed from rebound ace. He only got to the semis this year because he had the easiest draw in history.

Roddick should be 100/1 instead of 33/1.

Gulbis is far too short at 50/1. More like a 200/1 shot.

I don't understand why Blake is double the price the likes of Gonzo, Gulbis, Ferrer, Berdych are. Of course none of them are going to win it, but Blake has as much or more chances than all of them.

Yeah, I'd probably have Nadal 3rd (over Murray in 4th)...I think the AO would play a little better for him (than the US Open).

Roddick isn't GS/TMS winning material anymore, unless he gets a cakewalk...and even then he is now capable of stuffing it up.

For me, Gulbis could follow much in Blake's footsteps...capable of winning some big matches and having some fine runs, but lacking the stability to go unbeaten in 6-7 matches.

Also agree with your last point.

Henry Kaspar
09-22-2008, 07:26 PM
Probably should be in gamblers lounge... ;)

Probably. Till now I didn't know that such a place existed -- there seems to be a forum for everything here.

ballbasher101
09-22-2008, 07:31 PM
Yeah, I'd probably have Nadal 3rd (over Murray in 4th)...I think the AO would play a little better for him (than the US Open).

Roddick isn't GS/TMS winning material anymore, unless he gets a cakewalk...and even then he is now capable of stuffing it up.

For me, Gulbis could follow much in Blake's footsteps...capable of winning some big matches and having some fine runs, but lacking the stability to go unbeaten in 6-7 matches.

Also agree with your last point.

With all due respect you can not compare Gulbis to Blake, Gulbis is way more talented he just needs to smarten up and learn how to change tactics in matches to deal with his opponents.

federernadalfan
09-22-2008, 07:36 PM
pretty much straightfoward odds for the top four players ranking wise. the rest of the players odds might change a bit as we approach next year

l_mac
09-22-2008, 07:37 PM
Nadal doesn't play well enough at the start of the year to ever win the AO :awww:

I'll put my money on Nole.

betowiec
09-22-2008, 07:37 PM
They all have no chance at all. :shrug:

Blake should be 1,000,000 to 1, biggest loser in Tennis History

agree

MIMIC
09-22-2008, 08:05 PM
well federer is the top favourite according to those odds.

Oh. I don't know how to read odds. :)I thought they were listed from most likely to least likely.

Jaz
09-22-2008, 08:53 PM
Odds seem accurate, I would lower Djoker's odds though, his recent form has been poor

BIGMARAT
09-22-2008, 09:02 PM
I only see Federer and Nole as the favorites and should get the highest.

q.j.
09-22-2008, 09:28 PM
I only see Federer and Nole as the favorites and should get the highest.


exactly.

it's interesting to see this odds and all but they don't mean nothing.
new odds determined after Shanghai won't mean much ether
cause

were was joker after Berlin last year-nowhere, he was getting his ass kicked by Santoro, Nalby (this one was actually inevitable) not wining a single match in TMS in one word, who at that time thought he would have such a run at AUS 08, Federer on the other hand was also fuckd by Nalby on carpet, by eventually rose the TMS trophy and in everybody's mind was a potential upset at AUS 08 only by Nalby, Nadull was his usual hardcourt/carpet self, kick most of the guys, by get killed by those that are better hard court players than him..and look at him now, and this incredible ran that he had.

in other words, i really don't know what to expect from the following AUS open, Murray could repeat Jokers surprise next year, but i find it a little bit unlikely ...Nadull as well, but his form is not very high in the beginning as alot of you said , so i'll stick with Federer > Joker pair, and i'm giving Rogy just the slightest edge not 'cause of the USO but because of Joker's dislike for defending big titles as demonstrated thus far.


o yeah, and Roddick should be much lower than he is now, Gulbis and Flake a little bit higher.

Corey Feldman
09-22-2008, 09:57 PM
wonder if the Spanish bookies have Nadal as the fave

Rogelio is always the favourite, no