Approaching Wimbledon: Who is your favorite to win the tournament ? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Approaching Wimbledon: Who is your favorite to win the tournament ?

prima donna
06-15-2008, 07:11 PM
Who could have foreseen that the events leading up to Wimbledon 2008 and the changes in the surface alike would culminate in the creation of such a thread -- especially considering the success enjoyed by Federer over the last few years at this tournament, but considering thus far having had a relatively mediocre season and therefore without a slam in his pocket -- which was the case in the year in which he lost 5-set thriller against Marat Safin at the Australian Open, which was to be followed up by a defeat at the hands of Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros.

I'm curious to know what the general consensus is, while most of Nadal's authentic fans have been subdued and diplomatic with respect to questions regarding his chances of prevailing over Federer at Wimbledon, there have been others with slightly varying opinions: suggesting that perhaps the odds are split of Federer or Nadal winning; suggesting that Nadal is the favorite for Wimbledon, despite the fact that bookies may think otherwise; suggesting that Nadal and Djokovic are the two main contenders -- suffice to say that this sort of prediction has been uttered by a small minority of posters, but it's worth entertaining for the sake of this thread.

There's already been another thread created exclusively for predictions, but it's become more of a tabloid than an actual organized discussion and is also lacking a poll, so I decided to take it upon myself to give brave members of MTF a platform upon which to publicly express their opinions on the different possible scenarios at Wimbledon 2008 -- I've also intentionally created this thread for the purpose of creating dialogue that revolves not around the draw, but rather the abilities of each player to fight off any obstacles presented before them.

prima donna
06-15-2008, 07:17 PM
Gonna have to go with Oscar Hernandez on this one.

rocketassist
06-15-2008, 07:18 PM
Kuerten was in 2004.

scoobs
06-15-2008, 07:19 PM
Just a quick correction - Federer's RG defeat to Kuerten was 2004. In 2005 he lost to Nadal in the semis.

MaryX
06-15-2008, 07:21 PM
What to say after your fantastic poll options.I am, in your words, overwhelmed.
But, favorits are:

Nadal> Federer>Djokovic

prima donna
06-15-2008, 07:23 PM
Just a quick correction - Federer's RG defeat to Kuerten was 2004. In 2005 he lost to Nadal in the semis.
Corrected, I'm really losing my bearings.

Vida
06-15-2008, 07:25 PM
What to say after your fantastic poll options.I am, in your words, overwhelmed.
But, favorits are:

Nadal> Federer>Djokovic

agree to the letter.

Sunset of Age
06-15-2008, 07:26 PM
Federer is still the favourite, albeit slighly - he'll surely have a tougher job than in previous years.

Second is Rafa, no doubt about that, as long as he manages to avoid the Big Hitters/Big Servers in the first week, as they might be able to trouble him then as the grass is still slick and green. If he manages to reach the second week, I think he's a lock-in for the final - at least. ;)

finishingmove
06-15-2008, 07:27 PM
there's at least 3 threads about this. do a search next time , or just visit page 2 sometimes.

scoobs
06-15-2008, 07:28 PM
The history and grasscourt record and experience, not to mention the very solid and smooth win at Halle this week, compel me to make Roger the slight favourite, in my opinion.

Rafa, though, is a much stronger contender in my eyes this year - his own rapid adjustment to the grass, his demonstration of his ability to win on the grass against the likes of Roddick, Karlovic and Djokovic, and his clear desire mean he goes in looking the the likelier to triumph if Roger falls, or the one to do it himself if he plays the better match.

Though I think there are a couple of players who, on their good day, could hit Nadal off the court on grass.

The feeling for me, though, is that Federer needs to really kickstart his season with a slam win here.

He didn't win his first slam in 05 until Wimbledon but he did do the Indian Wells/Miami double, won Dubai, won Halle, and so didn't seem to be struggling nearly as much as he has seemed to be in 08. An emphatic Wimbledon win would go some way to snapping the pencils of all those determined to write his obituary - prematurely, in my opinion.

habibko
06-15-2008, 07:29 PM
you should have put a "Federer as the overwhelming favorite but he WILL be challenged" as a midway choice which I would have picked here.

and really what's with all this Oscar Hernandez thing? is this some sort of weird bandwagon I haven't catched or what? :confused:

prima donna
06-15-2008, 07:34 PM
you should have put a "Federer as the overwhelming favorite but he WILL be challenged" as a midway choice which I would have picked here.
and really what's with all this Oscar Hernandez thing? is this some sort of weird bandwagon I haven't catched or what? :confused:
It's my way of implying that the probability of Djokovic winning Wimbledon is equal to that of Oscar Hernandez.

I just couldn't help myself. This poll will infuriate plenty of people, which is perfectly fine -- they don't have to participate.

MaryX
06-15-2008, 07:39 PM
they don't have to participate
It would be better if you don't participate.

l_mac
06-15-2008, 07:53 PM
Federer is a strong favourite for me. No-one's beaten him on grass for - what? nearly 6 years? So until proven otherwise I think he has to be regarded as a favourite.

After Fed come Rafa and Novak. Anyone outside of those 3 winning would be a major, major upset.

hilluis
06-15-2008, 07:55 PM
Bookies favs as of 15/6 in the UK. Roger 5:4, Rafa 2:1, Novak 7:2.......everyone else way down.....Bookies do not like to lose money.

DrJules
06-15-2008, 08:36 PM
Federer is a strong favourite for me. No-one's beaten him on grass for - what? nearly 6 years? So until proven otherwise I think he has to be regarded as a favourite.

You do not really believe that.:devil:

After Fed come Rafa and Novak. Anyone outside of those 3 winning would be a major, major upset.

Agreed.

DrJules
06-15-2008, 08:38 PM
Consider Federer and Nadal joint favourites.

star
06-15-2008, 08:48 PM
Federer is the overwhelming favorite. He's won Wimbledon umpty ump times and has a 60 match winning streak on grass. He's the one the bookies rate. So, by any calculation Federer is the favorite. Plus he's the favorite boy of the Wimbledon organizers. He'll get the best times for his matches and be favored with courts I don't think we'll be seeing him on Court 2.

After him Nadal followed by Djokovic -- followed by I would like to say Roddick, but I'm wondering if he will get even to the quarters. Depends on his draw.

RAFAfan25
06-15-2008, 08:48 PM
fed is the man to beat on sw19!! how can anyone else say otherwise! the man has not lost or 5 years straight! he is the overwhelming fav! YES NADAL is closing the gap on grass but fed still has the edge over him and i believe that whoever has to play the joker in the semis will be mentally and pyshically beatup somewhat for the finals! so hence my wimby breakdown will be as follows:

1. SWISS MISS

2. RAFA

3.JOKER

4. GASQUET (pls try not to laugh)

5. A rod (the new hot fiance will be inspiring him a little)

i dont believe anyone else has a legitimate shot at the title to be honest

RAFAfan25
06-15-2008, 08:50 PM
so star, u agree with me that the wimby organizers will be looking out for and helping their favourite golden boy swiss miss....

Merton
06-15-2008, 08:52 PM
Obviously Roger is the favourite here. Current odds:

Federer 2.25
Nadal 3.9
Djokovic 5.5
Roddick 38
Murray 44

The line moved big time for Nadal, quite normal after Queens.

scoobs
06-15-2008, 08:53 PM
so star, u agree with me that the wimby organizers will be looking out for and helping their favourite golden boy swiss miss....
How?

star
06-15-2008, 08:58 PM
How?

Scheduling favors. That's all they can do these days.

scoobs
06-15-2008, 09:02 PM
Scheduling favors. That's all they can do these days.
In the sense of...what?

The Wimbledon scheduling is more rigid than at any of the other slams.

The most they can do perhaps, on days where rain might be expected, is schedule his match to try and get done before the rain.

But then, they would do that will all their top players.

Shabazza
06-15-2008, 09:04 PM
Corrected, I'm really losing my bearings.

Your post is still wrong. Federer won AO in 2004 and lost to Safin in 2005.

prima donna
06-15-2008, 09:28 PM
Your post is still wrong. Federer won AO in 2004 and lost to Safin in 2005.
Corrected, for some reason his first match against Nadal at Roland Garros never quite registered in my mind. It finally occurred to me after you pointed out the sequence of events, which is quite shameful as I remember being disappointed several months following his loss against Safin (A perfect example as to why you should not try hitting shots between the legs on match point.)

I guess I suffer from selective memory disorder when it comes to Nadal and Federer matches on clay :lol:

Embarrassing error, but I'm sure people understood the message I was trying to get across.

In 2004 Roger came into Roland Garros with the Australian Open under his belt (defeated an exhausted Safin in the final) and lost to Gustavo Kuerten.
In 2005 Roger came into Roland Garros having lost to Safin in Australia and lost in the SF against Nadal, then went on to successfully defend his Wimbledon title.

star
06-15-2008, 09:31 PM
In the sense of...what?

The Wimbledon scheduling is more rigid than at any of the other slams.

The most they can do perhaps, on days where rain might be expected, is schedule his match to try and get done before the rain.

But then, they would do that will all their top players.

If you recall last year, Federer always played early in the day. That way he had much less chance of being affected by rain. If they put Federer on Court 2 this year, I'll retract everything. :)

richie21
06-15-2008, 09:32 PM
Fed,Djoker or Nadal.
The others better not even show up.

star
06-15-2008, 09:33 PM
Corrected, for some reason his first match against Nadal at Roland Garros never quite registered in my mind. It finally occurred to me after you pointed out the sequence of events, which is quite shameful as I remember being disappointed several months following his loss against Safin (A perfect example as to why you should not try hitting shots between the legs on match point.)

I guess I suffer from selective memory disorder when it comes to Nadal and Federer matches on clay :lol:

Embarrassing error, but I'm sure people understood the message I was trying to get across.

In 2004 Roger came into Roland Garros with the Australian Open under his belt and lost to Gustavo Kuerten.
In 2005 Roger came into Roland Garros having lost to Safin and lost in the SF against Nadal, then went on to successfully defend his Wimbledon title.

In hell, you will be sentenced to read your posts. :)

scoobs
06-15-2008, 09:36 PM
If you recall last year, Federer always played early in the day. That way he had much less chance of being affected by rain. If they put Federer on Court 2 this year, I'll retract everything. :)
Federer was last match on Centre against Safin last year :)

prima donna
06-15-2008, 09:42 PM
In hell, you will be sentenced to read your posts. :)
Since when did this become a forum upon which to launch personal attacks ? I tend to trust my memory, but my life doesn't revolve around tennis, so errors can happen from time to time.

Back off, either stay on topic or don't bother wasting time to flood me with hidden innuendoes.

goldenlox
06-15-2008, 09:42 PM
Federer has to be the favorite. Even though he's having an off year, he knows how to play high percentage tennis on grass.
Nadal was very close to losing last year long before the final, and didn't play a SF.
If a new name was ever going to win a major, this is it. Because Novak is solid on hardcourt.
Novak and Rafa are both beatable on grass, and Fed's not the same player he used to be.

Johnny Groove
06-15-2008, 09:42 PM
Nadal was the 3rd favorite for Wimbledon during RG, at 9.00 or something at some places, ridiculous. :retard:

Federer-50%
Nadal-45%
Djokovic-4%
Field-1%

Beforehand
06-15-2008, 11:45 PM
I'd agree with whoever said "Federer is an overwhelming favorite, but can or will be challenged." I don't fancy anyone other than Nadal to give him shit on any normal day, and...if pressed, I guess I could see Novak or a big-server annoying him in an out-of-control-day.

star
06-16-2008, 12:54 AM
Since when did this become a forum upon which to launch personal attacks ? I tend to trust my memory, but my life doesn't revolve around tennis, so errors can happen from time to time.

Back off, either stay on topic or don't bother wasting time to flood me with hidden innuendoes.

If you don't want to read my posts, put me on ignore. You aren't one to be lecturing on posting behavior.

prima donna
06-16-2008, 01:02 AM
If you don't want to read my posts, put me on ignore. You aren't one to be lecturing on posting behavior.
I've never acknowledged your existence, I'd expect you to reciprocate the same pattern of behavior.

Back off.

peterparker
06-16-2008, 01:11 AM
Fed. is the favorite. But imo the key is the djoker. Djokovic matters in a way to Fed. on grass that was not true for the Capt. Claymerica on clay. I would be very surprised if Fed. drew the djoker and nadal and won Wimbledon in the way that nadal won Roland Garros.

Really wide open between the big three, credit to djokovic for making this happen so soon!

ChocGeek
06-16-2008, 01:27 AM
Novak Djokovic. I know he can do it. Ajde Nole.

rafa_maniac
06-16-2008, 01:59 AM
This poll doesn't really contain my answer. Federer is objectively a clear favourite, but I have a feeling it's Rafa's year this time.

wilmar
06-16-2008, 02:11 AM
Federer desperately need to win Wimbly to get that first big title for the year. Wimbly is practically his own bedroom. He is clearly a favourite but he wasn't as tested last week as Nadal or Djokovic.
But with Nadal's current form and confidence, both my heart and mind will go for Nadal with just the slight edge.

Bibberz
06-16-2008, 02:19 AM
Federer-55%
Nadal-40%
Djokovic-4.99%
Field-.01

LaTenista
06-16-2008, 02:26 AM
Federer is of course still the favorite, of course will depend on draw, weather, etc. to see how tough it will be for him to defend the title.

If it's a Rafa-Fed final it will depend on how many hours each has been on court, if they had to play several days in a row, etc. to predict who has the advantage. Rafa's confidence must be sky-high right now, winning his first grass title and defending RG again. Should be a very interesting two weeks. :cool:

Halba
06-16-2008, 06:52 AM
the winner of 2008 wimbledon will be rafael nadal.

t0x
06-16-2008, 07:09 AM
Fed has to be fave here.

Unlike on HCs, Rafa is clearly second in the running. His slice serve seems to do him wonders on the grass, and it's nice and easy on his body.

Chris Seahorse
06-16-2008, 07:23 AM
I think it is very close between Federer and Nadal. But in a close match I will always favour the mentally stronger player and while Federer isn't lacking in mental toughness, Nadal is probably as strong mentally as a tennis player I have ever seen.

Mateya
06-16-2008, 07:34 AM
It's like this:

Fedmug: 52%
Rafzilla: 40%
The Djoke: 7%
others: 1%
PHM: 0,03%

:p

JediFed
06-16-2008, 07:37 AM
Rod at 1-38?

Wow. I'd consider laying down 100 on Rod to win with those odds.

iriraz
06-16-2008, 08:00 AM
Federer as well as Djokovic or Nadal could face tough matches.One example is Karlovic.I doubt he could win 3 sets of those 3 guys but he could push them to 4 or even 5 sets with like 4 tiebreakers.
Any big hitter has his chances against the top players to make a long match because they can hold serve and in tiebreakers one point can be decisive

Bazooka
06-16-2008, 11:46 AM
Nadal 2008 >>>> Nadal 2007
Federer 2008 <= Federer 2007
Add to this the final of last year and the conclusion is pretty easy. And Nadal just showed his weapons on Queens to two of his hardest obstacles to the final: Rod and the Joker.

bokehlicious
06-16-2008, 11:49 AM
Hope Fed saves tennis and takes it... A moonballer winning Wimbledon would be such a disgrace... :o

DartMarcus
06-16-2008, 11:50 AM
Hernandez > Berlocq > Granollers Pujol

wilmar
06-16-2008, 11:53 AM
Nadal 2008 >>>> Nadal 2007
Federer 2008 <= Federer 2007
Add to this the final of last year and the conclusion is pretty easy. And Nadal just showed his weapons on Queens to two of his hardest obstacles to the final: Rod and the Joker.

Indeed! And beating them in straight sets too, which is no mean feat. Plus the best-of-five at Wimbly will favour Nadal.

DDrago2
06-16-2008, 11:55 AM
This poll doesn't really contain my answer. Federer is objectively a clear favourite, but I have a feeling it's Rafa's year this time.

I rather feel like it might not be Federer's time this year.
Anyway this poll is quite useles because the bookmakers were consistently great at their's job for years now so you can just check the betting odds and that's as good a prediction as you will get from aynone!

Johnny Groove
06-16-2008, 03:58 PM
Rod at 1-38?

Wow. I'd consider laying down 100 on Rod to win with those odds.

Might as well burn it

JediFed
06-16-2008, 04:58 PM
If I wanted to piss my money away I'd put it down on 1-5.2 on Djoker. What a waste.

Better to bet a little bit on Roddick, even if you are more likely to lose, you could get an even bigger payout.


Federer 2008 <= Federer 2007


Halle Federer 2008 > Halle Federer 2006.

Nadal 2007 (81 match win streak on clay) > Nadal 2008.

Nadal 2007 didn't lose in Rome