Guess the Tour De France odds [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Guess the Tour De France odds

Bolar Bolabi
02-16-2008, 06:53 AM
This event now is the most open it's ever been. No Contador, No Leipheimer and no Kloden. No Vinoukourov. No anyone? So who would the bookies install as favourites?

Valverde? I don't think his spot in the tour is safe either with operation puerto being re-opened. So who deserves the favourite honour? Wheel sucking Cadel?

So let's guess the odds and see how close we were when the odds come out in about a months time.

Evans - $4.50
Valverde - $5
F Schleck - $8
Sastre - $10
Menchov - $10
A Schleck - $10
Moreau - $12
Rogers - $12
Cunego - $12
Simoni - $12
Soler - $15
Casar - $15
Perero - $20
Kirchen - $20
Dekker - $20
Danielson - $50
Gerdemenn - $50
Hincapie - $60

Seriously, if you were a bookie, how the hell would you judge this? Everyone up to Dekker can win this thing. Evans is clearly not a favourite IMO but they will put him as favourite. What price would you put the first 15 riders who can clearly win this? You'd think that CSC and High Road will try and control the race - both teams will have very strong teams but if they don't, someone like Soler can run away with it.

Good luck to the bookies.

Bolar Bolabi
02-28-2008, 11:35 AM
Here they are

Cadel Evans 3.00

Denis Menchov 7.00

Alejandro Valverde Belmonte 8.00

Carlos Sastre Candil 9.00

Michael Rogers 16.00

Damiano Cunego 17.00

Andy Schleck 21.00

Oscar Pereiro Sio 26.00

Mauricio Soler 26.00

Christophe Moreau 31.00

Yaroslav Popovych 31.00

José Angel Gomez Marchante 31.00

Thomas Dekker 31.00

Vladimir Karpets 31.00

Kim Kirchen 36.00

Haimar Zubeldia Aguirre 36.00

Riccardo Ricco 36.00

Mikel Astarloza Chaurreau 51.00

Frank Schleck 51.00

Linus Gerdemann 51.00

Samuel Sanchez 67.00

George Hincapie 81.00

Juan Manuel Garate 101.00

Stijn Devolder 101.00

Sandy Casar 101.00

Sylvain Chavanel 151.00

Thomas Voeckler 151.00

Bolar Bolabi
02-28-2008, 11:36 AM
Schleck at $21

Woah

Bolar Bolabi
02-28-2008, 11:38 AM
This event is more open than the odds suggest. Wheel sucker Cadel that short? Dekker is good odds too.

Don't forget a few things that is happening.

Operation Puerto has been re-opened - Valverde is linked to it.

Rogers is among the T-Mobile 2006 Tour de France team of accusations that he doped.

Might be worth putting something small on some of these long shots because if it goes the way I don't want it to, Rogers and Valverde won't be riding this year and that means odds for Sastre, Menchov and Schleck will come right in.

Ale10
03-02-2008, 05:52 AM
Betting on Evans at 3.00 is a major mistake imo. First of all, he is not that good, period. Second of all, there could be a big surprise and Astana could get into to TdF, somehow... And then they will come with Contador, Levi and Klodi. I will believe that they won't start if they won't be there at the prologue.

Bolar Bolabi
03-02-2008, 05:55 AM
Yep

Crazy people will bet on Evans just like crazy people bet on Vino last year for arguments sake.

Evans is the most over-rated cyclist there is - I think he is over-rated by the Australian Media bigtime.

Kolya
03-15-2008, 01:25 PM
Andy Schleck seems like a good bet but is he going to ride the Giro this year?

Honestly I feel Menchov is going to win.

Evans is good but he isn't that good in the mountains with anyone who can accelerate.

its.like.that
03-16-2008, 12:13 AM
Hincapie is way under the odds @ 60 imo.

its.like.that
03-16-2008, 12:15 AM
Betting on Evans at 3.00 is a major mistake imo. First of all, he is not that good, period. Second of all, there could be a big surprise and Astana could get into to TdF, somehow... And then they will come with Contador, Levi and Klodi. I will believe that they won't start if they won't be there at the prologue.

Levi is a useless piece of shit. Forget about him.

its.like.that
03-16-2008, 12:16 AM
Yep

Crazy people will bet on Evans just like crazy people bet on Vino last year for arguments sake.

Evans is the most over-rated cyclist there is - I think he is over-rated by the Australian Media bigtime.

Bolar, most Aussies have never even heard of Cadel.

:shrug:

its.like.that
03-16-2008, 12:17 AM
Will Karpets be in the Tour this year?

bad gambler
03-16-2008, 01:42 AM
Evans is so much better then anyone else in the TT's now that Levi is out.

It depends how much he can limit the damage in the mountains because he has minutes over the rest of the riders on the TT.

bad gambler
03-16-2008, 01:43 AM
But yeah $3.00 if those are his odds are too short.

sports freak
03-16-2008, 03:09 AM
Forza Evans,price is abit low for the liking!Maybe its a good sign,somebody knows somethin?

Ale10
03-17-2008, 03:21 AM
Forza Evans,price is abit low for the liking!Maybe its a good sign,somebody knows somethin?

Bookies are trying to suck in money on Cadel with low odds.

Bolar Bolabi
03-17-2008, 03:56 AM
Hincapie is way under the odds @ 60 imo.

Hincapie will be helping Rogers if Rogers rides the tour and it's found out he didn't dope with the rest of the T-Mobile squad in the 06 tour.

Up to 6 riders in the T-Mobile 2006 squad travelled to Freiberg University for blood transfusions a day before the tour. Sinkewitz travelled alone and then others went too.

The team was

Sinkewitz
Guerrini
Rogers
Mazzoleni
Kloden
Gonchar
Kessler

Sinkewitz has admitted to doping. Mazzoleni and Kessler doped at Astana so it's more than likely they were part of the T-Mobile doping ring. Gonchar had massive results in the Time Trials - safe to say he doped too. That leaves Rogers and Guerini. Rogers rode his best tour ever and finished in the top 10 and Guerini was with the team for years with Ullrich. Kloden also.

My guess is that as Rogers was a newcomer to the team, he didn't know what was going on - or he did but decided not to take part.

Also, I know a good outsider but I don't know if he's riding or not. Luis Leon Sanchez - awesome climber. Won me a lot of money last night winning the last stage of Paris-Nice.

I'm liking the odds of Cunego @ 17 aswell. Very nice.

Don't forget also that they have re-opened operation puerto. So the chances of Valverde riding the tour could be diminished too as he is linked to it. He sucks anyway when the spotlight is on him but still, take that into considerations.

If Rogers did dope in 2006, it will come out before the tour and thus Kirchen will be High Road's leader.

If it is proven Valverde was linked with Operation Puerto, it again will come out before the tour.

I have question marks over both those riders starting this years race.

Bolar Bolabi
03-17-2008, 03:59 AM
Will Karpets be in the Tour this year?

Should do

Bolar Bolabi
03-17-2008, 04:10 AM
Evans is so much better then anyone else in the TT's now that Levi is out.

It depends how much he can limit the damage in the mountains because he has minutes over the rest of the riders on the TT.

Yep you're right there but as you say, $3 is too short.

All it takes is someone like Soler to burst away in one stage. He looked awesome last year and was always up there.

Here is the makeup of this years tour.

10 flat stages,
5 mountain stages,
4 medium mountain stages,
2 individual time-trial stages.

Distinctive aspects of the race

4 mountain finishes,
2 rest days,
82 kilometres of individual time-trials,
19 Category 1, Category 2 and highest level passes will be climbed.

This tour is handmade for someone like Cunego or Shleck IMO and if Valverde does not ride the tour, Luis Leon Sanchez will take the reigns at Caisse-Depargne and he is a solid mountain rider.

Evans doesn't have a lot of TTkm up his sleeve.

its.like.that
03-17-2008, 04:13 AM
Bolar, you are a not a stupid man, so don't pretend that there are any cyclists around who haven't doped before.

Doping in cycling is the equivalent of lacing up your boots in any other sport.

Bolar Bolabi
03-17-2008, 04:14 AM
FYI, I think this is the team that High Road will bring in to help Rogers.

Michael Rogers - Leader
Kim Kirchen
Linus Gerdemenn
George Hincapie
Thomas Lokvist
Marcus Burghardt

THe other 3 will go to sprinters.

its.like.that
03-17-2008, 04:20 AM
Should do

Then he is a good shot at winning it.

Forget wankers like Hincapie and Leipheimer :o

Bolar Bolabi
03-17-2008, 04:33 AM
Bolar, you are a not a stupid man, so don't pretend that there are any cyclists around who haven't doped before.

Doping in cycling is the equivalent of lacing up your boots in any other sport.

I'm not pretending. I know a lot of riders dope - there is no doubt in my mind that Rogers and Evans are dopers or have doped before - the same applies with Armstrong. I reckon Rogers doped in 06 as his performance there was unbelievable and most the T-Mobile squad had blood transfusions a day before the tour.

As I say to people. If Ullrich was juiced up and couldn't beat Armstrong, then what was Armstrong? Armstrong was a doper and so is 90% of the current riders.

With the measures they have put in place now, if you don't get caught doping, then you're a fucking legend.

Bolar Bolabi
03-18-2008, 01:47 AM
Also for anyone that is interested, Astana still might ride the Tour. The UCI is pushing towards it. Also as CSC is leaving the sport at the end of the season, they will want to win a major race to get a new sponsor quickly hence why Schleck is a good bet.

Also Gerdemenn has broken his leg so that doesn't help Rogers case. Not that it matters as Rogers is out for 8 weeks with Illness anyway.

DeccyB123
03-31-2008, 10:18 AM
Soler is a good outsider imo. He could do the Rasmussen transition from King of the Mountains to race leader. Hopefully without the drugs tho...

Bolar Bolabi
04-01-2008, 03:31 AM
You're onto something there Deccy. All it will take is one breakaway and Soler is a good mountain goat and can easily break away from the pack and they won't be able to catch him.

We'll see which riders are in form come July.

Bolar Bolabi
04-26-2008, 03:52 AM
Should change this topic to the 2009 Tour de France.

Basso V Contador - throw in perhaps Vino who is coming out of retirement to race the Olympics and may find a team now that Basso did.

Anyway, with the form Kirchen is in, I like him to take it this year. I seriously doubt Gerdemenn will ride the tour and I don't think Rogers will either - if he does, he won't be full fitness so I so Kirchen has it on his own and has reasonable support too. I think Rogers will ride for Kirchen is Rogers isn't fit enough to win it.

Bolar Bolabi
04-29-2008, 05:17 AM
Interesting paragraph I took out of a story regarding Kanstantin Siutsou who won the Tour of Georgia outdoing Leipheimer.

Despite the decisive Brasstown Bald, according to Siutsou he is honoured to win his first American race for his US-based team and feels prepared to start the Giro d' Italia in GC contention. "I am happy to have this jersey for my team, myself and Bob," said Siutsou. "This is a dream to represent my team like this. I knew I was riding well, I'm here training for the Giro and then to work for Kim Kirchen in the Tour de France."

According to that, this won't be Rogers year. Considering he's sick and missed a lot of riding and has a hampered preparation, I think they have already made the decision to make Kirchen the leader considering this. If Rogers rides, he will be a domestique.

I might put something small on Kirchen now because his odds will come in if the bookies get hold of the fact that Rogers shouldn't be that price.

Bolar Bolabi
04-29-2008, 05:24 AM
It's nearly May and there's two months to go, here's the update on the favourites.

Cadel Evans 3.00 - Riding well in good form. Winning races

Denis Menchov 7.00 - Hard to tell his form. Havn't seen him anywhere

Alejandro Valverde Belmonte 8.00 - Won the Leige-Bastonge-Leige the other day and has been riding i ngodo form.

Carlos Sastre Candil 9.00 - Havn't seen much of him.

Michael Rogers 16.00 - Illness - hasn't competed in a few months

Damiano Cunego 17.00 - Doesn't want to ride the tour

Andy Schleck 21.00 - Good form - CSC's leader. Consider

Oscar Pereiro Sio 26.00 - Don't know much about his form

Mauricio Soler 26.00 - We know what a talent he is - havn't seen much about him.

Christophe Moreau 31.00 - Again, havn't seen much about him

Yaroslav Popovych 31.00 - Will be riding for Cadel - no chance

José Angel Gomez Marchante 31.00 - Again, havn't seen much about him

Thomas Dekker 31.00 - Riding in godo form

Vladimir Karpets 31.00 - Havn't seen much about him

Kim Kirchen 36.00 - In excellent form. Climbing well. Hinted to be High Road's leader due to the lowsy preparations of Gerdemenn and Rogers due to injury and illness.

Anything can change in the next 2 months, but at this point in time, Evans, Valverde, Schleck, Karpets and Kirchen are the men for July. The last 3 are excellent value.

its.like.that
04-29-2008, 05:26 AM
I like Karpets @ 51 with centrebet, and myself @ 69 with your mother.

ha

its.like.that
04-29-2008, 05:28 AM
I really can't see Evans winning it.

Just nowhere near aggressive enough.

Bolar Bolabi
04-29-2008, 05:32 AM
I agree. Evans won't win it my friend. He did attack one race that he won which was rare, but he's shit.

Clearly the Value is in Schleck, Kirchen and Karpets.

Bolar Bolabi
04-29-2008, 05:34 AM
Karpets is $51 at centrebet? He's 31 at sportingbet. What is Kirchen at centrebet?

its.like.that
04-29-2008, 06:06 AM
Karpets is $51 at centrebet? He's 31 at sportingbet. What is Kirchen at centrebet?

it was a joke bolar

karpets isn't really at 51 with cb, and i'm not really at 69 with ym.

:sad:

Bolar Bolabi
04-30-2008, 06:03 AM
I know it was a joke - I ignored the second part.

I've made some people sick at work with my kinky mind - particularly 69ers and going down on women - giving advice on how to do it.

its.like.that
04-30-2008, 01:15 PM
what advice do you have on how to do it?

please let me know

Bolar Bolabi
05-01-2008, 03:39 AM
So you're saying you suck at going down on women and need help?

its.like.that
05-01-2008, 04:04 AM
So you're saying you suck at going down on women and need help?

Yep!

Teach me!

Bolar Bolabi
05-01-2008, 10:41 AM
Here is not the place. I don't want the public to know my advice. I'll tell you when we catch up sometime over a few beers.

Bolar Bolabi
06-11-2008, 07:59 AM
Cunego is looking very nice @ $10/$3 odd

Evans is crap. Valverde is no good at big tours. Menchov is overrated. Rogers won't recover from Glandular Fever in time to race. If Rogers races and finishes top 20 - he's on some good stuff. Schleck I have some question marks over. Dekker a possibility. A proper thread will be started up sometime in the next week or so when I get time.