Mr Intensity: £1000 to ....... [Archive] -

Mr Intensity: £1000 to .......

Mr Intensity
08-28-2007, 12:01 PM
Wow, can't believe I haven't posted on here since September 2004! I'm glad to be back, really enjoy reading you guys posts in Gamblers Lounge, and hopefully I'll be able to contribute something useful in the future. Anyway, here is the reason for me starting this thread: I lost quite heavily during all the "fixed" tennis matches a few weeks ago, my bankroll has literally been torn to shreds. So I'm trying to rebuild. I've decided to leave Betfair for a while, as I just cannot believe a decent in-play price I see on there! So, I'm going back to a bookie, and the dreaded multiple bets as this is how I build my 'roll up in the first place. I'm using the next 2 weeks to see how far I can get (basically the US Open). My staking will be aggressive and the bets will sometimes be a bit crazy! I'll mostly be doing tennis, but sometimes other things as well, such as MLB and Football. I'll be putting my analysis of games in the appropriate forums as well as in this thread. My initial bank will be £1000 and I'll see how far I can get!

Thanks for reading.

Mr I.

08-28-2007, 12:38 PM
good luck, i hope you can make up more than you lost few weeks ago

Mr Intensity
08-28-2007, 02:14 PM
Thanks scarecrows. Onto the first bet...

£50 Trebles from 4, William Hill

STARACE v Gulbis @ 2.1
CLEMENT v Karlovic @ 2.25
SELA v Lapentti @ 1.53
GRANVILLE v Sanchez @ 1.72

I really like the look of Starace in this game. He comes in after some good form on clay and a pretty tight loss to ToJo in New Haven last week. I think that loss is acceptable, as it was his first hard court match for a while (ignoring the Davis Cup against a guy ranked 1132) and Johansson had just come off a good Challenger win. He's shown glimpses of decent hard court form in the past and now around his career high rank and first time seeded at a slam, I think he'll put in a solid performance.

Gulbis is a strange one at the moment I feel. He had a very good first few months of the year at challenger level, but has failed to step up to ATP level. He is 1-11 in ATP and Grand Slams this year (only win against an unfit Henman at the French) and despite some close matches and decent performances he continually fails to get the W. An anomoly seems to be in Davis Cup in July in Finland where he beat Nieminen in 4 sets which is a great result, and is a slight concern here, as I really cannot explain it. Anyway, today I think Starace is solid enough to extend the points and I expect a very high UE count for the Latvian.

Whichever way I look at it, Gulbis has not done enough to be considered favourite in this game.

Clement v Karlovic: H2H is 2-2 and from those games we can all see how this matchup is going to play out. My reasons for this bet are mainly against Karlovic: I've heard he was fatigued and had a bit of an injury last week against Fish, and we've seen so far guys who did well there are struggling here. Secondly his slam record is pretty poor, going 11-17 in the main draw and even in the last 2 years it is declining, as he is 2-7 in the past 2 years albeit with some pretty tough draws. Clement has had some tough draws in the US this summer, losing to T Johansson (he was injured, just turned up as he was defending title), Roddick, Berdych and Blake. So although his W-L lately isn't great I don't see that as a big indication of poor form. We've all seen what he can do on the Karlovic serve in the past meeting, and over 5 sets I definately see him creating enough chances and getting the job done. Very nice price here, I have no reason for Clement being over 2.00.

Since bursting onto the scene in Australia this year, Sela has been making some solid progress. He did well in qualifying here, and I expect him to take full advantage of this nice first round draw. He seems to have a solid tennis brain, and should be able to play an effective match here. Lapentti has been drifting along playing some average stuff lately, and everytime I've been able to watch him play his serving has been woeful. I don't really think he has the desire to play on the hard courts anymore, and should be happy just picking up a cheque. Sela has already shown his desire coming through qualifying, and that is a big plus when looking at this match up. Also doubts over Lapentti's fitness (even though Will Hill void on a retirement) make me very confident playing Sela. 1.53 is a solid price, but I wouldn't be taking it at 1.44 or under.

Interesting little match up between Granville and Sanchez here. Sanchez has had some great results in here last 2 small tournaments and did very well qualifying here. However, this is one occasion where I will oppose the qualifier. Sanchez is 0-2 against girls in the top 100, and was 0-3 last year. Also, she's only had one match in a Grand Slam main draw (first round loss at the French this year) so clearly this is a massive step up. Granville has struggled a little of late, but she had an excellent Wimbledon and early US hardcourt run. She's far more experienced in this type of environment and at home I fully expect her to win. I thought the price would be closer to 1.50 so I'll definately play at this price.

I'll take a look at the later matches once I've seen how these have started.

08-28-2007, 02:17 PM
Hey, good luck and welcome again

Mr Intensity
08-28-2007, 02:19 PM
Thanks Skywalker. Almost forgot:

Starting Bank: £1000
Current Bank: £800
Selections W/L: 0/0
Total Staked: £200
Yield: 0%

Mr Intensity
08-28-2007, 04:04 PM
£40 Fourfolds from 5, William Hill

GALLOVITS v Bremond @ 1.83
SANTORO v Pavel @ 1.36
PAVEL v Meffert @ 1.36
MALISSE v Pless @ 1.57
SERRA v Eschauer @ 1.44

I donít know much about Gallovits, but Iím still willing to play this game. From what Iíve just looked up, she seems to be mainly a clay courter, which probably will be a good thing here as she can extend the points and just wait for Bremond to miss (miss by a long way lol). Sheís had some good wins this year, she is 7-9 against top 100 opponents which isnít bad and she has had a lot of wins this year (35-19 record). This is the opposite of Bremond, who simply cannot put any wins together and has a shocking 6-21 record. Sheís a player who really relies on timing the ball well, and simply, she isnít doing it this year. This is virtually a case of opposing Bremond at any cost, and after a little research on her opponent Iím willing to do so at this price. Gallovits should definitely be favourite, Iíd put her at something like 1.70.

Santoro hasnít had much action lately, having problems with heat illness and stomach ache, but these are things that go away quite quickly and I think heíll be fully prepared for this. He has a decent US Open record lately despite some shocking draws Ė Federer twice, Verdasco, Ljubicic and Stepanek all early in the past few years. Heís been playing as well as ever this year and in any kind of shape I see no way heís losing this one. Montanes simply doesnít have any pedigree on hard courts and is one to oppose against virtually anyone in the draw. Iím not concerned about him running Andreev very close last week, I see that as more of a negative for Andreev who is very capable of putting in a shocking performance. Montanes is 1-5 at the US and 3-17 in Slams excluding the French and I just really really donít see him winning this one. Santoro should be 1.25 IMO.

Battle of two qualifiers, but Pavel definitely has the edge. I think Pav has been playing really well the past few months, just getting some pretty harsh draws and he should be clinical against this type of opponent. He has a solid record here reaching the 4th round a couple of times and has way more experience in best of 5 encounters. Meffert plays the vast majority of his tennis in Europe, and despite doing well to qualify here I canít favour him at all. He struggles to keep an even record on hard courts and a career high ranking of 208 shows the sort of level he operates. This is his first time in a Grand Slam main draw and thereís just such a gulf in every respect between these two IMO there is only one outcome. Pavel should be around 1.25.

Tricky match to get involved in, but Iím willing at this price. Malisse was stunning at the beginning of the year and was looking more mature which could have led to him having an awesome year. However, he still has a great and this is a great place to start. Heís taken the return to the tour pretty slowly and I canít see him returning until he is 100% (unlike Murray). This is a great chance for him to get some match fitness and some confidence against a player who is really struggling. Since winning a Challenger in March Pless is 4-14 and since Wimbledon his only win is against a guy ranked 1507! He actually doesnít have a bad US Open record, going 5-5 in the main draw, however, in this spot I just canít see him having the confidence to take on Malisse. X-Man shouldnít be more than 1.50.

I really like this match up for Serra, but Iím not really sure why! Heís failed in qualifying in his last two tournaments and comes in to this one with really limited form but I still like him today. Maybe itís more a fade of Eschauer? We all remember his big week in Amersfoort but heís 0-2 since then and hasnít played since the end of July. Also heís seems to avoid hard courts, his last outing on indoor hard coming in Wroclaw which he won but he hasnít played on outdoor hard since November 2005 where he lost first round in Puebla and before that it was failing to qualify for the 2004 Australian Open!! Surely that lack of warm up tournaments and any tournaments on hard courts will be a factor here. I feel Serra should control this match, both with his serve and his groundstrokes, and should come through comfortably. For me, Serra should be around 1.35.

Starting Bank: £1000
Current Bank: £600
Selections W/L: 0/0
Total Staked: £400
Yield: 0%

Mr Intensity
08-28-2007, 07:39 PM
In play

£200 VAKULENKO v Hantuchova @ 2.25 William Hill

Set up, and Hantuchova is playing awful. Anything over evens is good.

Mr Intensity
08-28-2007, 08:57 PM

£200 CINCINATTI @ Pittsburgh Game 1 @ 2.50 William Hill

Just reading another forum and a couple of guys I respect like this play. Also Cincinatti are on a really good run. Ramirez is a concern, but the Cinci bats are hot and maybe they can win a slugfest.

bad gambler
08-28-2007, 09:11 PM
good luck buddy hope it turns out good for you in the end

Mr Intensity
08-28-2007, 09:47 PM
Thanks BG. It's been a prett good start today. I'll update the results in the morning. I've got another MLB bet coming up!

Mr Intensity
08-28-2007, 09:52 PM

£50 Trebles from 4, William Hill

ATLANTA -1.5 @ Florida @ 1.83
Minnesota @ CLEVELAND -1.5 @ 2.4
NY METS -1.5 @ Philidelphia @ 2.25
ARIZONA -1.5 @ San Diego @ 2.1

Braves were in a bit of a funk before last night going 2-5 but the bets got hot last night as they pounded to a 13-2 win. With Smoltz on the mound I fully expect them to carry that momentum and have another comfortable victory. Florida have a stinking 27-39 home record and have been terrible in the last month. Smoltz has been very solid lately, going 8 innings in his last two starts, giving away 2 runs in each. VandenHurk has been very up and down this season, and is actually coming off a good starts, giving away 1 run in 5 innings in an 11-3 win at St Louis. But at home is where his problems have been, going 1-3 with a 7.07 ERA. Any way I look at this, I see Atlanta taking it.

Cleveland are usually a good bet at home where theyíve won 60% of there games this season. I think this series is good for a Cleveland sweep and I think theyíll have few problems tonight. Minnesota are coming off a very good 4 game sweep of Baltimore on the road but they were brought back down last night in Cleveland 8-3 and I see this definitely as a let down series. Cleveland should be happy to be at home after a solid 4-2 road trip and they can continue that momentum in this series. Iím not really a fan of Bosner, he has an ERA over 5 on grass and struggles to get much run support. He managed a decent outing in Baltimore and finally got a W but I think heíll struggle for two in a row. Westbrook has been very solid since coming back from injury, going at least 6 innings in his 12 starts. Heís only given away more than 1 run in 1 of his last 5 starts, and despite only going 2-4 at home he should get the W tonight.

Mets are going well on the road, 9-3 in there last 12 games. Coming off an average couple of home series and a 9-2 loss last night, they need to get something going here. Philies are now 3-4 in this home stretched and have hit over .400 in the last 2 games which I canít see continuing into this game. I fancy a letdown in this game giving the Mets a chance in this series. Eaton has struggled a bit this season, and this being his first start off the DL I think heís going to struggle. Mets shouldnít give up too much, with Glavine going 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA against the Philies this season.

Padres sent there ace to the mound last night and now itís the turn of Arizona. This match up is about the starting pitchers, and Webb has been excellent this season and especially of late. Webbs stats are just unreal, he keeps going deep into games and isnít giving up a thing. Germano has been solid this season, but his problems have been at home where he is 2-5 with a 5.40 ERA. I just see Arizona taking this down in a pretty low scoring contest.

Mr Intensity
08-28-2007, 11:32 PM
In play

£200 LINO v Cho @ 4.00 William Hill

Cho just gone 3-0 in the third but I still think Lino has a chance. She's played pretty well and can get into every Cho service game. Injury doubts over Cho at the moment and may have a choke in her first match for 18 months.

08-28-2007, 11:57 PM
Hey, good luck! For now it looks very promising! All the best :hug: :hug: :hug:

Mr Intensity
08-29-2007, 09:01 AM
Hey thanks Nathaliia. Quite a good first day, a bit too up and down for my liking, but after going 0-5 in MLB I've very happy to have made a profit!! Still annoyed I included Starace in a bet yesterday without properly checking the OOP, but I'll be a lot happier if he can take care of the business today!

£40 Fourfolds from 5, William Hill

GALLOVITS v Bremond @ 1.83 :( LOST
SANTORO v Pavel @ 1.36 :) WON
PAVEL v Meffert @ 1.36 :) WON
MALISSE v Pless @ 1.57 :) WON
SERRA v Eschauer @ 1.44 :) WON

Returned: £168.83

£200 VAKULENKO v Hantuchova @ 2.25 William Hill :) WON Returned: £450

£200 CINCINATTI @ Pittsburgh Game 1 @ 2.50 William Hill :( LOST Returned: £0

£50 Trebles from 4, William Hill

ATLANTA -1.5 @ Florida @ 1.83 :( LOST
Minnesota @ CLEVELAND -1.5 @ 2.4 :( LOST
NY METS -1.5 @ Philidelphia @ 2.25 :( LOST
ARIZONA -1.5 @ San Diego @ 2.1 :( LOST

Returned: £0

£200 LINO v Cho @ 4.00 William Hill :) WON Returned: £800

Starting Bank: £1000
Current Bank: £1218.83
Selections W/L: 6/6
Total Staked: £1000
Yield: 21.88%

I've haven't included the first bet which included Starace which is being played today. But got the first 3 right so guaranteed a return of around £290 and if he wins it'll be over £1200!

08-29-2007, 09:23 AM
I have no idea how it works on Will Hill as I'm a betfair child nevertheless, but how does Potito affect your won matches on Clement, Sela and Granville?

I'm on Potito as well today and have just finished writing an article about him, where I was kinda spiteful towards his abilities, hopefully he won't be a jerk in return.

Horatio Caine
08-29-2007, 09:59 AM
Good luck dude. :yeah:

Mr Intensity
08-29-2007, 12:12 PM
I have no idea how it works on Will Hill as I'm a betfair child nevertheless, but how does Potito affect your won matches on Clement, Sela and Granville?

I'm on Potito as well today and have just finished writing an article about him, where I was kinda spiteful towards his abilities, hopefully he won't be a jerk in return.

It's more the old fashioned way on betting, which most people frown upon these days. Basically, in the Potito bet I've done trebles from 4. So that's every combination of 3 from 4. So the bets are like this:

£50 Treble Clement, Sela, Granville
£50 Treble Clement, Sela, Potito
£50 Treble Clement, Granville, Potito
£50 Treble Sela, Granville, Potito

So obviously the first bet has won and returns £297.08. If Potito wins then all four of the bets win and the total return will be over £1200.

So basically it only really works when you get them all right, but doing 3 from 4 can give you a little profit when you get 3 right.

Hope this helps.

dave nz
08-29-2007, 01:49 PM

Hope you go well :cool:

Mr Intensity
08-29-2007, 02:10 PM
Again, thanks for the well wishes guys :)

£50 Trebles from 4, William Hill

WAWRINKA v Korolev @ 1.33
SAFIN v Dancevic @ 1.57
Ivanovic v Rezai OVER 16.5 GAMES @ 1.83
Cricket: WAWRICKSHARE v Hampshire @ 2.00

I think this one should be comfortable for Wawrinka. I know Korolev won the first meeting but Iím not reading much into that as it was on grass and Wawrinka still wasnít far into his comeback. This summer Iíve been really impressed with him, despite some tough draws heís been putting in some good performances (especially against Hewitt) and last week was playing very well. I think heís set up to put in a good performance today. Korolev is a player I donít really like, and heís struggled to get results in North America this summer (unlike at this beginning of the year). I think Wawrinka has too much class in this match up, and more Grand Slam experience and should come through. Price is a little tight, I think he should be around 1.3 so Iím willing to take this 1.33.

Yep, Iím a sucker who keeps betting on Safin. I donít think heís been playing too badly this summer, and at the US Open, I think heís worth a shot. Itís bad that heís playing at 11am, but I like that heís on a big court and should get some atmosphere after the first hour. I think this is the type of match up Safin needs, where he should be able to control from the back and get a taget to aim at (unlike the Kiefer match where he had to grind and he isnít playing well enough for that). Iím not a Dancevic fan, and although he has come through qualifying he did have a few problems. He has limited Grand Slam experience and I have to take Safin in this one.

This just seems like a strange number. Venus is a bigger price to win her match but the over/under quote is 18.5 games. I know Ivanovic won 6-1 6-1 in the first round but this is a much bigger challenge. Rezai reached the fourth round here last year and Iím sure she can manage the 5 games required for the over.

Wawrickshare have problems recently but I donít think they are a terrible side and I think this is a great chance for them to get a win today. Hampshire are without Warne, Pieterson, Tremlett and Mascarenas and the side looks a little thin. Hampshire have lost there last two Pro40 games and I think theyíll struggle again today.

Henry Chinaski
08-29-2007, 02:17 PM
Nice start. Used to enjoy reading your analysis at Punter's Lounge btw. (pretty safe to assume you're the same guy) Hope this goes well for you.....

08-29-2007, 02:18 PM
Your name gives me a little chuckle every day. :lol: and you live up to it! Good luck mate :)

Mr Intensity
08-29-2007, 02:22 PM
Nice start. Used to enjoy reading your analysis at Punter's Lounge btw. (pretty safe to assume you're the same guy) Hope this goes well for you.....

:) :)

Ssssshhhhhh ;)

08-29-2007, 02:23 PM
Thanks for explaination, this looks like a nice way of betting, especially that it's usually just one badman who spoils a parlay, while here you have the chance for winning anyway.

Just your Safin worries me a bit as I planned on Frank, and your tennis bets seem very reasonable. I'm on Wawrinka as well, as much as I adore Korolev (my "adopted child" ;)), he shouldn't have a chance here, objectively speaking. Also a nicely looking line of games on Ivanovic: Rezai is absolutely capable of winning 5 games.

Cricket.. uhhh you must be British or something to bet on cricket :D.

Mr Intensity
08-29-2007, 02:28 PM
Don;t let me put you off Dancevic, I've been losing on Safin most of the year! But this match just seems similar to the one against Qureshi at Wimbledon where there was a lot of talk about Safin struggling and Qureshi almost became a public play. I still think Safin has a lot to offer, especially in Slams and this has probably been his focus for quite a while, and Dancevic probably had that feeling in Montreal.

Mr Intensity
08-29-2007, 04:16 PM
£50 Trebles from 4, William Hill

Fish v Echagaray OVER 36.5 GAMES @ 1.83
Nadal v Jones UNDER 30.5 GAMES @ 1.83
GINEPRI v Rochus @ 1.61
CORNET v Wozniacki @ 1.83

Fish struggling with injury and isnít the type to break often anyway. I think he might not push 100% at least initially and that makes the first set more likely to go to a breaker. Iíd also fancy Fish to lose a set at least here making the over very likely. Donít know too much about Echagaray but heís come through qualifying so confidence should be up and he must be playing pretty well. Iíd probably have this number at 39.5 so Iím happy to be on the under here.

Poor Alan Jones! I think heís there for a real thumping today. Nadal not the type to cruise to 6-3 or 6-4 and first match up I think heíll want to put down a marker. Not too much to say about this, itís just how easily Nadal can get onto the Jones and I expect it to be over quickly.

This looks a pretty tough match but Iíd favour Ginepri. Both these guys are having very poor years but Ginepri for me has been showing more signs of improvement. We all know he tends to produce his best stuff in this tournament and I think heíll come through, probably in 4 tough sets.

The battle of the 17 year olds and on paper it does look very close to call. Wozniacki had a battle in the last round in a match I think she was expected to win pretty comfortably so perhaps she isnít playing too well. But I do like Cornet in this situation. Sheís come through qualifying and the first round against Stosur very comfortably and because of that I make her a decent favourite in this match. H2H is 1-0 to Wozniacki but that was on clay and so early in there careers I donít think it will have too much influence.

Mr Intensity
08-29-2007, 07:27 PM
£200 Double William Hill

SAN FRANCISCO v Colorado @ 2.05
TORONTO @ Oakland @ 1.60

Giants look very good to me here. On a great run, going for a sweep, make this home dog look appealing. Also Colorado are a definate public play today and I don't like it. Bonds is likely to be rested but that doesn't really put me off. Both pitchers have been struggling a bit lately but Colorados bats are cold and I see San Fran as more likely to take advantage today.

Toronto are going for a road sweep with Halladay on the mound they have a great chance. He's struggled to get a win away from home latelybut he's been pitchng well and I think he'll be solid tonight. DiNardo had a nightmare in his last start and his career numbers against Toronto are bad, hopefully he'll give up a few.

Mr Intensity
08-29-2007, 08:15 PM
In play

£200 HENMAN v Tursunov @ 2.5 William Hill

Wow! Tim's just taken the first set, and he's looked very good so far. Maybe it's my heart ruling my head, but I think he can keep this up. Come on Tim!

Mr Intensity
08-29-2007, 10:03 PM
Struggling today!


£50 Trebles from 4, William Hill

FLORIDA v Atlanta @ 1.86
BOSTON @ Yankees @ 1.90
CINCINATTI @ Pittsburgh @ 1.86
PHILIDELPHIA v Mets @ 2.05

Give Florida the edge in the starting pitcher tonight and a few other things in there favour. Braves canít afford to lose a series against a team like Florida and I the way theyíve been mixing things up lately seems a little desperate. Smoltz couldnít get the win last night and I really canít see Carlyle doing any better. Heís been beaten up in his last few starts with an 8.79ERA in his last 3 starts. Willis starts for Florida and heís much more solid, and I expect a decent outing from him. Also the Braves on a long road trip, where theyíve started each series well then fell away Ė expect the same tonight.

Beckett is simply awesome on the road and gives the Red Sox a definite edge in pitching tonight. Yankees won last night but I still think the Red Sox bats are hot and expect a few runs from them tonight. Yankees are almost always over rated and I see the value in the Red Sox tonight.

Pittsburgh going for the sweep but itíll be tough for them tonight. Harang is very solid and the form Cincinatti have shown this month doesnít go saway in 2 games and I expect a big effort from them to avoid the sweep.

The Mets, and in particular there bullpen, have been struggling recently. They are going to rely on Perez going long tonight and coming off his best start of the season Iím not sure he can back it up. Philies are playing really well and getting back into the hunt for the NL East and a win here would be huge for there momentum against divisional rivals. Lotís of factors make this home dog appealing.

Mr Intensity
08-29-2007, 10:25 PM
In play

£200 ROLLE v Kanepi @ 3.00 William Hill
Rolle playing pretty well now, and I think has a good chance of coming back.

£200 GONZALEZ v Gabashvili @ 3.25 William Hill

I've seem Gonzo play horrendously then suddenly find form from nowhere. Against a player like Gab it's definately possible.

Mr Intensity
08-30-2007, 08:46 AM
Stinking day yesterday, can't believe how many shocking performances I was on. Anyway, still up from where I started, so it's not too bad.

£50 Trebles from 4, William Hill

STARACE v Gulbis @ 2.1 :( LOST
CLEMENT v Karlovic @ 2.25 :) WON
SELA v Lapentti @ 1.53 :) WON
GRANVILLE v Sanchez @ 1.72 :) WON

Returned £297.95

£50 Trebles from 4, William Hill

WAWRINKA v Korolev @ 1.33 :) WON
SAFIN v Dancevic @ 1.57 :) WON
Ivanovic v Rezai OVER 16.5 GAMES @ 1.83 :( LOST
Cricket: WAWRICKSHARE v Hampshire @ 2.00 :( LOST

Returned £0

£50 Trebles from 4, William Hill

Fish v Echagaray OVER 36.5 GAMES @ 1.83 :( LOST
Nadal v Jones UNDER 30.5 GAMES @ 1.83 :( LOST
GINEPRI v Rochus @ 1.61 :) WON
CORNET v Wozniacki @ 1.83 :) WON

Returned £0

£200 Double William Hill

SAN FRANCISCO v Colorado @ 2.05 :( LOST
TORONTO @ Oakland @ 1.60 LOST

Returned £0

£200 HENMAN v Tursunov @ 2.5 William Hill :) WON Returned £500

£50 Trebles from 4, William Hill

FLORIDA v Atlanta @ 1.86 :( LOST
BOSTON @ Yankees @ 1.90 :( LOST
CINCINATTI @ Pittsburgh @ 1.86 :) WON
PHILIDELPHIA v Mets @ 2.05 :) WON

Returned £0

£200 ROLLE v Kanepi @ 3.00 William Hill :) WON Returned £600

£200 GONZALEZ v Gabashvili @ 3.25 William Hill :( LOST Returned £0

Starting Bank: £1000
Current Bank: £1216.78
Selections W/L: 16/16
Total Staked: £2600
Yield: 8.34%

Need a good day today!

08-30-2007, 11:50 AM
Potito was kinda bitch, didn't show up at all, unless for 1st round money.

Good luck today :).

Mr Intensity
08-30-2007, 12:46 PM
Really fancy these today :)

£50 Trebles from 4, William Hill

Gasquet v Young OVER 32.5 GAMES @ 1.83
LLODRA v Koubek @ 1.66
SIMON v Verdasco @ 2.50
Cricket: ENGLAND v India @ 1.72

Really impressed with Young in the first round. Think he can keep this close, and it's a pretty small number. Crowd should really get involved on Armstrong, and I can see Young having a set and definately taking this over.

Comprehensive 4-0 in sets on the H2H including one on hard courts this year for Llodra. Koubek got a strange result against Querrey and I didn't see that so can't comment too much. Think Llodra is much more likely to put in a solid performance and is a good favourite to be on today.

Think this is a huge come down spot for Verdasco, who would have loved the good atmosphere of his first match and his big comeback. Simon has been playing pretty well recently and has the game to hand with Verdasco when he's playing well and take advantage when he dips. H2H 1-0 to Simon on clay in Spain last year.

England have dominated the 3 games so far and even got close to chasing down 329 in the second game. The Indian fielding is woeful and in the cold overcast conditions today they could really struggle - like in the first game. Flintoff should be back so the possible loss of Collingwood isn't such of a blew and I really like England to go 3-1 up in the series.

£50 Trebles from 4, William Hill

Daveydenko v Kiefer OVER 38.5 GAMES @ 1.83
LOPEZ v Andreev @ 1.83
MIRNYI v Grosjean @ 2.1
CLEMENT v Johansson @ 1.66

Quite fancy an upset in this one, but I definitely fancy it to be long and tight (mmm ). Kiefer has looked pretty good as his comeback has continued, with only losses to Djokovic and Blake on hard courts this summer. I think heís got a great game to take it to Davydenko and get at least take a set. Davydenko has been decent since the betting scandal came out, but a couple of poor performances in New Haven donít inspire confidence. Both players can through the first round in straight sets, but Kiefer had the much tougher challenge against Spadea and should be sharp for this one.

This should be a close match, but Iíd favour Lopez. He did a good job on Ferrero in the first round when Ferrero was a pretty big public play. Andreev had a comfortable time against Kendrick but this one will be much tougher. H2H is 2-0 to Lopez and that is indicative on Andreevís poor record against lefties, which stands at 6-13 (despite 1-2 against Nadal). Perhaps this is because his huge forehand tends to go into the lefties backhand, and this can be negated with a slice? Lopez has a great slice backhand and I think that can be crucial today. The faster hard court should suit Lopezís all-court game and I make him a decent favourite to come through.

Two guys that have been really struggling this year, but I definitely give the edge to the Beast. Is Grosjean playing well? Weíve got no idea after Goldsteins retirement in the first round. We know Mirnyi is playing great after an excellent match against Baghdatis. He was really pumped during that game, and that shows his desire is still good. Not sure we can say the same about Grosjean, and despite the 3-0 H2H in his favour I think Mirnyi has the edge today.

Clement had a battle against Karlovic in the first round, but that shouldnít be as tiring as it would have been against a baseline grinder. Like I said a couple of days ago, I think heís playing well this summer but has had some tough draws. Iíd favour him over ToJo, who had a bit of a struggle against Massu. Despite a challenger win a few weeks ago I still donít think Johansson is playing very well. He still doesnít seem to have much confidence behind his serving, and I wouldnít fancy him when it gets tight. H2H is 4-4 with Johansson winning the last meeting in Washington, but Clement was injured and just trying to defend his title, so this is a great chance for revenge.

£200 LEE v Canas @ 3.25 William Hill

Really like Lee in this match up. Heís had a very solid North American summer going 8-4 so far with losses coming only against Blake, Roddick twice and Wawrinka. He had a decent win against Hrbaty in the first round, and although it went to 5 I think heíll be ready for this one. Canas won his first match in North America this summer at the third attempt against Hidalgo but he really struggled more than youíd expect. The quicker hard court certainly suits Lee and he is definitely backable with Canas still being priced on Indian Wells / Miami form.

Mr Intensity
08-30-2007, 06:16 PM
In play

£200 BJORKMAN v Murray @ 2.1 William Hill

Physical concern over Murray and Bjorkman looks sharp right now.

Mr Intensity
08-30-2007, 07:21 PM
In play

£200 ACASUSO v Roddick @ 3.50 William Hill

Samrt and dominant set from Aca. Roddick forced into playing too much D. If Aca keeps playing like this, he wins.

08-30-2007, 07:54 PM
In play

£200 ACASUSO v Roddick @ 3.50 William Hill

Samrt and dominant set from Aca. Roddick forced into playing too much D. If Aca keeps playing like this, he wins.

roddick to good on hard court.

Mr Intensity
08-30-2007, 07:56 PM
£200 KIEFER v Davydenko @ 2.75 William Hill

Same reasoning as the over bet in the match.

Mr Intensity
08-30-2007, 07:56 PM
roddick to good on hard court.

He's only losing because he's injured :) :)

Please retire!!

Mr Intensity
08-30-2007, 10:17 PM

£50 Trebles from 4, William Hill

CINCINATTI @ Pittsburgh @ 1.9
Seattle @ Cleveland UNDER 11 @ 1.76
TAMPA BAY @ Baltimore @ 1.95
Milwaukee @ Chicago Cubs UNDER 8.5 @ 1.83

Cinci had a good win yesterday and now have a great chance to level the series tonight. Pittsburgh has a hot offense this month but after being shutout yesterday maybe theyíre starting to cool down. Now against Belisle, who has a 2.14 ERA in three starts against them this season, itís going to be tough. Morris picked up his first victory for the Pirates in his last outing, so confidence should be up, but I fancy Cincinatti to square the series tonight.

11 is a good number, with most books going 10.5. Laffey has been decent in his starts for Cleveland, and with Seattles offense struggling I canít see them putting up too many. I think Ramirez is a decent pitcher, despite his poor numbers, and hopefully can restrict Cleveland a bit tonight.

Baltimore have been awful lately losing there last 8. Tampa are looking for there first 3 game road sweep of the season and with Kazmir on the mound they have a good chance. Guthrie had a great run about a month ago but has really struggled since then and hopefully that continues tonight.

Cubs playing a lot of low scoring games lately. With Lilly on the mound, who is looking to win for the first time in a while, I think this will be another tight one. Parra is decent and I fancy him against a struggling Cubs offense.

Mr Intensity
08-30-2007, 10:27 PM
£200 Double, William Hill

CLEMENT v Johansson @ 2.5
Sharapova v DellAqua UNDER 17.5 GAMES @ 1.83

Still fancy Clement to take this, just had a huge hold. Looks really pumped up.

Shara to crush the Aussie.

Mr Intensity
08-30-2007, 11:05 PM
£200 Sharapova v DellAqua UNDER 17.5 GAMES @ 1.83 William Hill

Shara to crush the Aussie.

Mr Intensity
08-31-2007, 11:09 AM
Horrendous day, got so many matches so very wrong. Llodra, Kiefer, what was that? But, I know I've got to be right now, cos I can't get much wronger. Very close to connecting on the MLB, but the late innings sucked.

£50 Trebles from 4, William Hill

Gasquet v Young OVER 32.5 GAMES @ 1.83 VOID
LLODRA v Koubek @ 1.66 :( LOST
SIMON v Verdasco @ 2.50 :( LOST
Cricket: ENGLAND v India @ 1.72 :) WON

Returned £0

£50 Trebles from 4, William Hill

Daveydenko v Kiefer OVER 38.5 GAMES @ 1.83 :( LOST
LOPEZ v Andreev @ 1.83 :) WON
MIRNYI v Grosjean @ 2.1 :( LOST
CLEMENT v Johansson @ 1.66 :( LOST

Returned £0

£200 LEE v Canas @ 3.25 William Hill :) WON Returned £650

£200 BJORKMAN v Murray @ 2.1 William Hill :( LOST Returned £0

£200 ACASUSO v Roddick @ 3.50 William Hill VOID

£200 KIEFER v Davydenko @ 2.75 William Hill :( LOST Returned £0

£50 Trebles from 4, William Hill

CINCINATTI @ Pittsburgh @ 1.9 :) WON
Seattle @ Cleveland UNDER 11 @ 1.76 PUSH
TAMPA BAY @ Baltimore @ 1.95 :) WON
Milwaukee @ Chicago Cubs UNDER 8.5 @ 1.83 :( LOST

Returned £186.36

£200 Double, William Hill

CLEMENT v Johansson @ 2.5 :( LOST
Sharapova v DellAqua UNDER 17.5 GAMES @ 1.83 :) WON

Returned £0

£200 Sharapova v DellAqua UNDER 17.5 GAMES @ 1.83 William Hill :) WON Returned £366.67

Starting Bank: £1000
Current Bank: £819.81
Selections W/L: 22/25
Total Staked: £4400
Yield: -4.09%

Mr Intensity
08-31-2007, 12:49 PM
£40 Fourfolds from 5, William Hill

GULBIS v Berrer @ 1.66
MELZER v del Potro @ 2.50
ROBREDO v Fish @ 1.72
SAFIN v Wawrinka @ 1.61
CHELA v Odesnik @ 1.33

I got Gulbis completely wrong in the first round and now I'm willing to side with him. Perhpas a win like that is what he needs to really get going. He has a lot more potential and a lot bigger game than Berrer, and I expect him to progress. Berrer is decent, but he has to serve well as Gulbis is capable of attacking the second serve and I see that being key today.

Mmm, don't quite get these odds, as I'd have them pretty even. Melzer has a great record against big servers and I think he's been playing well this summer. Del Potro got a convincing win in the first round, but I'm not certain on the fitness of Mahut. H2H is 1-0 to del Potro, but that went to 5 in the Davis Cup and I think Melzer can get at least that close today, but I think he can nick this one.

Why is everyone on Fish? This is a big public play and one I certainly don't like. Fish has been good recently, but Tommy is different class. Robredo has struggled on the hard courts this season, but I always like him in the big events. Robredo has an excellent 15-7 record at the US Open compared to Fish's 5-7. Fish is going to have to serve very well throughout and even if he does I still favour Robredo.

Whichever way I look at this match I keep coming back to Safin. Any other tournament and I'd probably choose Wawrinka at these prices. Safin was pretty poor against Dancevic but still manages to come through in straight sets and a win like that could really get him on a roll. I think Wawrinka's been playing well this summer, and going to 7-5 in the fifth against Korolov was surprising and quite poor. This match could go long, but I think Safin will come through in 4 or 5 sets.

I think Chela should be very comfortable here. I don't really rate Odesnik and he had a big struggle with Udomchoke in the first round which was disappointing. Pretty similar styles here but Chela does it a lot better.

Mr Intensity
08-31-2007, 04:53 PM
£33 Fivefolds from 6, William Hill

ROBREDO v Fish @ 1.72
HENMAN v Tsonga @ 2.00
MONACO v Sela @ 1.33
GINEPRI v Gabashvili @ 1.33
DEMENTIEVA v Bammer @ 1.4
ZVONEREVA +5.5 v Williams @ 1.83

Sorry I've got no time for analysis, going out in a few mins :)