AFL Round 5 [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

AFL Round 5

Bolar Bolabi
04-24-2007, 06:28 AM
I'll start it off with the traditional Anzac day clash.

I'm taking over the total I saw at the TAB this morning. Forget what it was, but this match is going over.

its.like.that
04-24-2007, 07:53 AM
:lol:

total is set at 183.5

If the weather is clear, I actually agree with Bolar for once, it should go over.

Gamblore
04-24-2007, 08:30 AM
This is going over and a large play is DUE!!!.

sports freak
04-24-2007, 09:50 AM
Not as confident on the Overs like you guys,short week for both teams plus the Anzac Cup will see extra physicalness therefor restricting more run n gun style game imo!!!Especially in the 2nd half where i feel theyre will be a drought of goals!!

bad gambler
04-24-2007, 11:43 AM
Why would this go over? Pies were dead on their feet on the weekend in the final qtr against the Power, given the short turnaorund they are going to really feel it tomorrow IMO

bossboss
04-24-2007, 02:30 PM
Essendon 1-39.5 @ 2.25 ( 5units)

Reg Seasons Records:
W/L 8-3 - Units staked 55 - retuned 75.25 Profit/Loss +20.25

dave nz
04-25-2007, 04:58 AM
Small one :



Collingwood +17.5 (-110) over Essendon---------0.5 of a unit





gl


dave

its.like.that
04-25-2007, 05:26 AM
Why would this go over? Pies were dead on their feet on the weekend in the final qtr against the Power, given the short turnaorund they are going to really feel it tomorrow IMO

Neither side plays much defense, and with good weather at the shitty MCG, hard to see either side being kept under 90 odd points.

its.like.that
04-25-2007, 07:35 AM
Too many wasted opportunities so far in this game :o

Total should have flown over

dave nz
04-25-2007, 08:04 AM
Small one :



Collingwood +17.5 (-110) over Essendon---------0.5 of a unit





gl


dave

Winner :cool:

bad gambler
04-25-2007, 08:08 AM
Too many wasted opportunities so far in this game :o

Total should have flown over

This was never going over because of the tight turnaround, we are talking 3-4 days remember. These players are not machines.

We'll get 'em this weekend though brother

its.like.that
04-25-2007, 08:15 AM
This was never going over because of the tight turnaround, we are talking 3-4 days remember. These players are not machines.

We'll get 'em this weekend though brother

Fatigue had nothing to do with that total not covering. :lol:

bossboss
04-25-2007, 12:59 PM
Essendon 1-39.5 @ 2.25 ( 5units)

Reg Seasons Records:
W/L 8-3 - Units staked 55 - retuned 75.25 Profit/Loss +20.25

Loss

But as a Pie supporter .. happy with their win .


Reg Seasons Records:
W/L 8-4 - Units staked 60 - retuned 75.25 Profit/Loss +15.25

Bolar Bolabi
04-26-2007, 05:14 AM
I agree. It wasn't fatigue. It was mediocrity. Some of those misses were appalling. That match should have flown over 200.

bad gambler
04-26-2007, 10:36 PM
Eagles by <39.5 v Tigers - $2.20

Obviously a bit of a risk given the Eagles could if they want blow these clowns out but given the travel don't think they will be too interested in a 100 point win.

Eagles by around 5-6 goals seems about right

Gamblore
04-27-2007, 12:05 AM
Port Adelaide v St.Kilda o185.5

Both can kick 120 each.

Gamblore
04-27-2007, 12:11 AM
Woops, just checked the weather, looks like its been raining badly, this will be game time decision.

Port_Power
04-27-2007, 01:10 AM
I dont go for line betting crap.I play it safe and go for head to head stuff. Port to win at 1.60.I am happy with 60 percent ROI

Port_Power
04-27-2007, 01:11 AM
Also dogs over hawks and carlton over brisbane Multi at 3.80.

Bolar Bolabi
04-27-2007, 05:12 AM
St.Kilda has never beaten Port Adelaide at AAMI and I can't see it happening tonight.

It has been raining constant the last 2 days here. Aami stadium soaks the water up well. At this point in time, I'm leaning towards the over as I don't think the rain will be a factor.

In any case, the weather should clear up by game time.

Bolar Bolabi
04-27-2007, 05:30 AM
Port Adelaide V St.Kilda - OVER 156.5 - GIFT. I don't care if it's wet. This is a gift. I can't believe I'm seeing this.

Port Adelaide @ $1.50

Brisbane -4.5 @ $2

Port ML X Bulldogs ML @ $2.35

Kangaroos +20.5 @ $1.91

The Gucci one
04-27-2007, 05:49 AM
Bolar is it windy atm?

Bolar Bolabi
04-27-2007, 05:55 AM
From where I am, no. It's overcast with some sight of sunshine, but it seems okay. I don't expect anymore rain by game time. However, it may be windy at the ground.

The Gucci one
04-27-2007, 06:14 AM
From where I am, no. It's overcast with some sight of sunshine, but it seems okay. I don't expect anymore rain by game time. However, it may be windy at the ground.

Thanks mate the radar below shows more rain on its way

http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR642.loop.shtml?range=true

Bolar Bolabi
04-27-2007, 07:11 AM
Yeah, looks like we'll be getting more rain but I don't think what we've had will affect a total as low as 156 with two huge forward lines.

Even if it rains during game time, with both these teams midfields and forward line, surely the total won't go under.

If we've had a lot of heavy rain, then I'd lean the other way.

Bolar Bolabi
04-27-2007, 07:50 AM
I've put more money on the over.

GL all in whatever you play tonight.

Gamblore
04-27-2007, 08:14 AM
I dropped a 3 dimes on that, come on that line is way to low. Never ever seen anything that low. Need 80 points per half and where home sweet home, plus the stats say that its never gone under that total.

Gamblore
04-27-2007, 11:07 AM
Rain is pissing down and Tredrea misses a shot from blank range.

rod_steel
04-27-2007, 02:47 PM
Nice call on the Power tonight

Port_Power
04-28-2007, 12:15 AM
Port Adelaide V St.Kilda - OVER 156.5 - GIFT. I don't care if it's wet. This is a gift. I can't believe I'm seeing this.



Is it? :devil:

Port_Power
04-28-2007, 12:17 AM
Made 200 this week already. Had under 156 as well and it paid off pretty well. Have a bigger fish to fry on sunday though. Dogs vs Hawks and then Freo vs Adelaide.

Bolar Bolabi
04-28-2007, 04:21 AM
Well I didn't expect it to piss down like that. In actual fact, the ground held up well. If the Saints did more up forward, it would have gone over, but no point looking at ifs. It was worth a play.

I am going over 185.5 on the match at TD tonight. DRY DRY DRY CONDITIONS. I expect this to be a high scoring match. Brisbane V Carlton matches are usually pretty good. Here is a record of all their matches in recent years.

1 2006 13 Bris Lions 8.23 (71) vs Carlton 7.14 (56) Gabba WON 15
2 2005 12 Bris Lions 21.14 (140) vs Carlton 12.10 (82) TD WON 58
3 2004 8 Bris Lions 21.14 (140) vs Carlton 16.6 (102) Gabba WON 38
4 2003 9 Bris Lions 23.15 (153) vs Carlton 11.10 (76) OO WON 77
5 2002 13 Bris Lions 19.10 (124) vs Carlton 16.13 (109) Gabba WON 15
6 2001 8 Bris Lions 9.14 (68) vs Carlton 21.16 (142) OO Lost -74
7 2000 2SF Bris Lions 10.9 (69) vs Carlton 23.13 (151) MCG Lost -82
8 2000 16 Bris Lions 17.10 (112) vs Carlton 23.18 (156) Gabba Lost -44
9 2000 1 Bris Lions 16.16 (112) vs Carlton 22.20 (152) OO Lost -40
10 1999 QF2 Bris Lions 20.18 (138) vs Carlton 8.17 (65) Gabba WON 73

Despite last year's poor showing, all have sailed over quite convincingly. Sure Brisbane aern't what they used to be, but at the dry conditions of TD, I expect both midfields and foward lines to pile on the goals in a shootout. Their last match at TD has shot over that total. I know they played in the pre season GF, but you can't take anything from that match.

Melbourne have put it up to Sydney the last few times they've played at the SCG. I think Sydney are giving away too many points, especially after only kicking 5 goals last week. 34.5 points is too much for the Swans to give away at the SCG.

Since 2002, all the matches at the SCG - Sydney has never covered that line. Similarly, in the last 10 between these two, only one of those matches have been over the 34.5 line. Have to go with these stats.

Melbourne +34.5 @ $1.90

1 2006 19 Sydney 14.11 (95) vs Melbourne 10.3 (63) MCG WON 32
2 2006 4 Sydney 13.14 (92) vs Melbourne 15.7 (97) SCG Lost -5
3 2005 16 Sydney 16.8 (104) vs Melbourne 11.12 (78) TD WON 26
4 2005 5 Sydney 7.18 (60) vs Melbourne 14.10 (94) SCG Lost -34
5 2004 20 Sydney 10.7 (67) vs Melbourne 7.4 (46) TD WON 21
6 2004 5 Sydney 15.9 (99) vs Melbourne 17.9 (111) TS Lost -12
7 2003 22 Sydney 14.10 (94) vs Melbourne 9.6 (60) MCG WON 34
8 2003 5 Sydney 17.7 (109) vs Melbourne 13.7 (85) SCG WON 24
9 2002 21 Sydney 23.7 (145) vs Melbourne 11.11 (77) MCG WON 68
10 2002 6 Sydney 15.9 (99) vs Melbourne 10.11 (71) SCG WON 28

GL

The Gucci one
04-28-2007, 04:35 AM
GL with those Bolar below is another interesting stat you should consider with the Brisbane/Carlton game

Brisbane 42 Goals 51 Behinds this season
Carlton 49 Goals 69 Behinds this season

Hopefully both teams will kick more accurately for you tonight Bolar

Bolar Bolabi
04-28-2007, 04:38 AM
Thanks Gucci. Didn't know that.

If both teams kicking are on, this should fly over 200. With the closed roof, I think we should see more accurate kicking tonight. Fevola and Brown shootout at the Dome.

Bolar Bolabi
04-28-2007, 04:53 AM
I've also got this feeling that we will turn it on tonight and Brown will kick about 8.

sports freak
04-28-2007, 06:01 AM
Thanks Gucci. Didn't know that.

If both teams kicking are on, this should fly over 200. With the closed roof, I think we should see more accurate kicking tonight. Fevola and Brown shootout at the Dome.

Agree Bolar,the total should sail over,Blues dont have any Defence at all!!Also Blues are missing Stevens big time,the midfield of the Lions should get em home with the help of Brown!!

sports freak
04-28-2007, 06:09 AM
Also looking at the Cats -20.5pts over Kangas,feel it will be 40+ margin imo!!

Gamblore
04-28-2007, 07:31 AM
So we agree on the Over in Brisbane/Carlton. Lets nail an over tonight.

bad gambler
04-28-2007, 07:45 AM
Eagles by <39.5 v Tigers - $2.20

Obviously a bit of a risk given the Eagles could if they want blow these clowns out but given the travel don't think they will be too interested in a 100 point win.

Eagles by around 5-6 goals seems about right

win

bad gambler
04-28-2007, 08:02 AM
Remember the Blues played in the rain last week in Perth and had to make the long haul back for this one tonight

Could see some heavy legs in the second half

Gamblore
04-28-2007, 09:11 AM
Rain looks like its gonna be a factor in this macth tonight.

http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR663.loop.shtml

The Gucci one
04-28-2007, 09:22 AM
Which match is that jig jag?

Gamblore
04-28-2007, 09:23 AM
Which match is that jig jag?

Lions/Blues

bad gambler
04-28-2007, 09:29 AM
Rain looks like its gonna be a factor in this macth tonight.

http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR663.loop.shtml

They are playing under a closed roof

The Gucci one
04-28-2007, 09:31 AM
In Melbourne not Brisbane Jig Jag

Gamblore
04-28-2007, 09:33 AM
They are playing under a closed roof

Of course they are, how stupid of me to think they weren't:rolleyes:

its.like.that
04-28-2007, 10:18 AM
Carlton v Brisbane - under 185.5

Sydney v Melbourne - over 161.5

bad gambler
04-28-2007, 11:29 AM
Your over nearly cashed by HT Jag :eek:

Great call

Gamblore
04-28-2007, 11:38 AM
Neither teams are missing, that helps.

dave nz
04-28-2007, 12:48 PM
Great call Lions backers we look home

Gamblore
04-28-2007, 01:27 PM
Us Lions fans are happy with that result.

sports freak
04-29-2007, 01:02 AM
So we agree on the Over in Brisbane/Carlton. Lets nail an over tonight.

:woohoo:

bossboss
04-29-2007, 02:29 AM
going for WB -9.5 against Hawks (10 units)

not sure where the goals will come from with Mark Williams OUT. (maybe Lance Franklin is enough) but WB are due for a big after disappointing couple of weeks


Reg Seasons Records:
W/L 8-4 - Units staked 60 - retuned 75.25 Profit/Loss +15.25

bad gambler
04-29-2007, 02:43 AM
boss - is the weather good?

bossboss
04-29-2007, 03:26 AM
boss - is the weather good?

sky is cloudy (grey) in parts .. clear elsewhere. very few drops early today.. as if the weather can't decided what to do . don't think it will pouring down anyway within the next few hours at least .. first game starts at 1:15 WB X Hawks

second game in Geelong can't tell as it is 4 hours from where i live

bad gambler
04-29-2007, 04:05 AM
sky is cloudy (grey) in parts .. clear elsewhere. very few drops early today.. as if the weather can't decided what to do . don't think it will pouring down anyway within the next few hours at least .. first game starts at 1:15 WB X Hawks

second game in Geelong can't tell as it is 4 hours from where i live

Thanks for the update. If it was raining I would have faded the dogs, not a good team in the wet. Will pass on this one and probably play the twilight game instead over in Perth

its.like.that
04-29-2007, 04:08 AM
if the weather is clear, then the over 170.5 is a good bet for Dogs v Hawks

Gamblore
04-29-2007, 04:10 AM
if the weather is clear, then the over 170.5 is a good bet for Dogs v Hawks

If you can get it. TAB have that stupid double with it.

its.like.that
04-29-2007, 04:23 AM
If you can get it. TAB have that stupid double with it.

yer :lol:

I never understood why sometimes they give a clear over/under line for AFL, and other times they have the stupid line/total points double.

All it means if, if you want to take over/under, you simply bet on both options for that score, although the combined odds will be lower than the normal 1.85

its.like.that
04-29-2007, 04:35 AM
Freo v Adelaide - under 150.5 @ 2.20

Rain in Perth + Crows defense = unders

Crows ML also good value

its.like.that
04-29-2007, 05:15 AM
Geelong v Roos - over 168.5

If the rain stays away, can't see this staying under with these defences.

bossboss
04-29-2007, 06:51 AM
going for WB -9.5 against Hawks (10 units)

not sure where the goals will come from with Mark Williams OUT. (maybe Lance Franklin is enough) but WB are due for a big after disappointing couple of weeks


Reg Seasons Records:
W/L 8-4 - Units staked 60 - retuned 75.25 Profit/Loss +15.25

Win $$$
Lance Franklin scored 6 majors but not enough to overcome scott west 41 disposals


Reg Seasons Records:
W/L 9-4 - Units staked 70 - retuned 94.25 Profit/Loss +24.25

dave nz
04-29-2007, 07:08 AM
I'll have a dabble :





Adelaide +7.5 (-105) over Freo---------0.5 of a unit








gl


dave

radiofriendly
04-29-2007, 07:20 AM
Hard for me to pick a winner out of Freo/Crows, think it may be a close one, but just saw some coverage on fox sports and it is absoloutely pouring down, very windy as well so am taking game total under 150 points $400 @ $2.25

its.like.that
04-29-2007, 07:29 AM
Hard for me to pick a winner out of Freo/Crows, think it may be a close one, but just saw some coverage on fox sports and it is absoloutely pouring down, very windy as well so am taking game total under 150 points $400 @ $2.25

:yeah:

Let's do this.

http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/images/smilies/handshake.gif

Gamblore
04-29-2007, 07:33 AM
Adelaide v Fremantle u150

radiofriendly
04-29-2007, 07:38 AM
:yeah:

Let's do this.

http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/images/smilies/handshake.gif

Yeah! Feel a little more uneasy after seeing a few minutes later the sunshining but the ground should still be wet for a heavy ball, plus subiacos a big ground. Good luck buddy! :D

Gamblore
04-29-2007, 10:12 AM
Adelaide v Fremantle u150

Win;)

dave nz
04-29-2007, 10:28 AM
I'll have a dabble :





Adelaide +7.5 (-105) over Freo---------0.5 of a unit








gl


dave

Winner

Wow very poor result for bookmakers as there was some heavy action on Freo SU and some late money on the Crows +. Horror finish for them.

Good job under backers :cool:

mercurial
04-29-2007, 10:39 AM
The bookies got penetrated hard this weekend - Port Adelaide, Richmond, Brisbane, WB and Freo all covered on the back of signifcant money, which had caused significant line shifts in each match.

















:D :D :D

Gamblore
04-29-2007, 10:56 AM
The Bookmaker may not beat me, but he'll eat the smaller people alive.

bossboss
04-29-2007, 11:03 AM
The bookies got penetrated hard this weekend - Port Adelaide, Richmond, Brisbane, WB and Freo all covered on the back of signifcant money, which had caused significant line shifts in each match.
:D :D :D

bookies wins anyway ..
i don't think too many people were on Richmond with the points anyway .. and Freo didn't cover ATS

All in all from 40 games .. the bookies estimated the line spread 19-21
as in 19 games the favorite covered ATS .. and 21 games dogs covered by either winning SU or losing but covering + points

best team is kangaroos 4-1 ats.. worst is melbourne 0-5 ats ...

its.like.that
04-29-2007, 12:27 PM
if the weather is clear, then the over 170.5 is a good bet for Dogs v Hawks

Freo v Adelaide - under 150.5 @ 2.20

Rain in Perth + Crows defense = unders

Crows ML also good value

Geelong v Roos - over 168.5

If the rain stays away, can't see this staying under with these defences.

Forget rugby league totals, AFL totals is where it's at.

:yeah:

radiofriendly
04-29-2007, 12:31 PM
Forget rugby league totals, AFL totals is where it's at.

:yeah:

Well done:yeah: made 'em pay today:)

its.like.that
04-29-2007, 12:52 PM
thanks champ

:hatoff:

Bolar Bolabi
04-30-2007, 04:38 AM
So who followed me in the Over on Saturday night? That was covered nearly by half time :haha:

Bolar Bolabi
04-30-2007, 04:41 AM
Port Adelaide V St.Kilda - OVER 156.5 - GIFT. I don't care if it's wet. This is a gift. I can't believe I'm seeing this.

Port Adelaide @ $1.50

Brisbane -4.5 @ $2

Port ML X Bulldogs ML @ $2.35

Kangaroos +20.5 @ $1.91

LOST

WON

WON

WON

WON

Thanks for coming!

Bolar Bolabi
04-30-2007, 04:43 AM
Well I didn't expect it to piss down like that. In actual fact, the ground held up well. If the Saints did more up forward, it would have gone over, but no point looking at ifs. It was worth a play.

I am going over 185.5 on the match at TD tonight. DRY DRY DRY CONDITIONS. I expect this to be a high scoring match. Brisbane V Carlton matches are usually pretty good. Here is a record of all their matches in recent years.

1 2006 13 Bris Lions 8.23 (71) vs Carlton 7.14 (56) Gabba WON 15
2 2005 12 Bris Lions 21.14 (140) vs Carlton 12.10 (82) TD WON 58
3 2004 8 Bris Lions 21.14 (140) vs Carlton 16.6 (102) Gabba WON 38
4 2003 9 Bris Lions 23.15 (153) vs Carlton 11.10 (76) OO WON 77
5 2002 13 Bris Lions 19.10 (124) vs Carlton 16.13 (109) Gabba WON 15
6 2001 8 Bris Lions 9.14 (68) vs Carlton 21.16 (142) OO Lost -74
7 2000 2SF Bris Lions 10.9 (69) vs Carlton 23.13 (151) MCG Lost -82
8 2000 16 Bris Lions 17.10 (112) vs Carlton 23.18 (156) Gabba Lost -44
9 2000 1 Bris Lions 16.16 (112) vs Carlton 22.20 (152) OO Lost -40
10 1999 QF2 Bris Lions 20.18 (138) vs Carlton 8.17 (65) Gabba WON 73

Despite last year's poor showing, all have sailed over quite convincingly. Sure Brisbane aern't what they used to be, but at the dry conditions of TD, I expect both midfields and foward lines to pile on the goals in a shootout. Their last match at TD has shot over that total. I know they played in the pre season GF, but you can't take anything from that match.

Melbourne have put it up to Sydney the last few times they've played at the SCG. I think Sydney are giving away too many points, especially after only kicking 5 goals last week. 34.5 points is too much for the Swans to give away at the SCG.

Since 2002, all the matches at the SCG - Sydney has never covered that line. Similarly, in the last 10 between these two, only one of those matches have been over the 34.5 line. Have to go with these stats.

Melbourne +34.5 @ $1.90

1 2006 19 Sydney 14.11 (95) vs Melbourne 10.3 (63) MCG WON 32
2 2006 4 Sydney 13.14 (92) vs Melbourne 15.7 (97) SCG Lost -5
3 2005 16 Sydney 16.8 (104) vs Melbourne 11.12 (78) TD WON 26
4 2005 5 Sydney 7.18 (60) vs Melbourne 14.10 (94) SCG Lost -34
5 2004 20 Sydney 10.7 (67) vs Melbourne 7.4 (46) TD WON 21
6 2004 5 Sydney 15.9 (99) vs Melbourne 17.9 (111) TS Lost -12
7 2003 22 Sydney 14.10 (94) vs Melbourne 9.6 (60) MCG WON 34
8 2003 5 Sydney 17.7 (109) vs Melbourne 13.7 (85) SCG WON 24
9 2002 21 Sydney 23.7 (145) vs Melbourne 11.11 (77) MCG WON 68
10 2002 6 Sydney 15.9 (99) vs Melbourne 10.11 (71) SCG WON 28

GL

WON & LOST

Melbourne really are horrible.

Speaking of horrible, Geelong are a pathetic bunch. Bottom 4 material. Overrated big time. Richmond will get a win before Melbourne do.

sports freak
04-30-2007, 11:08 AM
LOST

WON

WON

WON

WON

Thanks for coming!

Impressive :) Good luck this week champ!!

its.like.that
04-30-2007, 01:07 PM
So who followed me in the Over on Saturday night? That was covered nearly by half time :haha:

The real question is, who followed you with the 'certain' overs on Friday night?

;)

bossboss
04-30-2007, 01:46 PM
Anyone knows how much "Heath Shaw" was paying for Anzac Day Medal?

completely forgot about this and i had him on top of my list

Bolar Bolabi
05-01-2007, 06:29 AM
The real question is, who followed you with the 'certain' overs on Friday night?

;)

Yeah, well. No comment. :wavey: