NFL - Conference Championships [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

NFL - Conference Championships

bad gambler
01-15-2007, 08:41 AM
Early odds:



NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +2
CHICAGO BEARS -2

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +3
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -3



I definitely overrated the Bears against the Seahawks, but they are laying points to the Saints? I'm shocked.

TMJordan
01-15-2007, 08:45 AM
home field advantage bg.

but seriously the nfc doenst matter, get your New England to win the super bowl bet in now so you will have some value instead of laying a td in the sb!

bad gambler
01-15-2007, 08:48 AM
home field advantage bg.


Home field advantage? What advantage?

Divisional playoffs, road team were a perfect 4-0 ATS

I had them to make the superbowl and nothing has changed, Vegas can shove those points, Saints ML for me

TMJordan
01-15-2007, 08:49 AM
I do agree, Saints win this game, just saying home field advantage warents a few points in every sport, Good Luck Saints should roll the Bears :yeah:

bad gambler
01-15-2007, 08:53 AM
And if Colts can't beat the Pats, Manning will never make it to the big one in his career

mercurial
01-15-2007, 10:09 AM
Home field advantage automatically warrants 3 points.

Combine this with the fact that dome teams are 11-37 in outdoor playoff games, and early forecasts predicting possible snow showers, and Chicago are 8-1 at home this season, the one loss coming in a nothing game against the Pack. So this probably adds another 2 to the line.

If this were played on neutral ground I'd probably expect to see NO as 4 or 5 point favourites, and therefore see this one as a PK or Chicago as 1 point favourites.

Chicago opened at -3 at most places, before coming in to 1-1.5 favourites, and are beginning to be pushed out toward -2 or -2.5.

After this morning's game I was in line to take the Saints SU, but indecision and the aforementioned line movements have so far left me without a bet. Rex sucks, clearly, but got it done today. Can the Saints blitz well enough to ruin him? No, in my opinion. I though the Bears' defensive line was fairly good when it counted today, and I am not sure how Brees, Bush, McAllister and co will cope if Soldier Field gets true January weather.

I see Average Joe Public jumping all over the Saints this week, so I will wait to see if Chicago approach -1 or even PK later in the week. Leaning toward the Bears.

sports freak
01-15-2007, 10:29 AM
And if Colts can't beat the Pats, Manning will never make it to the big one in his career

Totally agree :)

bad gambler
01-15-2007, 10:33 AM
Home field advantage automatically warrants 3 points.

Combine this with the fact that dome teams are 11-37 in outdoor playoff games, and early forecasts predicting possible snow showers, and Chicago are 8-1 at home this season, the one loss coming in a nothing game against the Pack. So this probably adds another 2 to the line.

If this were played on neutral ground I'd probably expect to see NO as 4 or 5 point favourites, and therefore see this one as a PK or Chicago as 1 point favourites.

Chicago opened at -3 at most places, before coming in to 1-1.5 favourites, and are beginning to be pushed out toward -2 or -2.5.

Yeah I should have clarified when I said I was suprised to see Bears laying points. I also work off a 3 point home ground advantage, so if you take the Saints as being saying a FG favourite in a neutral venue, at worst I expected this to be a straight pk'em game. Mind you there is a week still to go for that to happen so the line may correct itself in the next few days.



After this morning's game I was in line to take the Saints SU, but indecision and the aforementioned line movements have so far left me without a bet. Rex sucks, clearly, but got it done today. Can the Saints blitz well enough to ruin him? No, in my opinion. I though the Bears' defensive line was fairly good when it counted today, and I am not sure how Brees, Bush, McAllister and co will cope if Soldier Field gets true January weather.

I see Average Joe Public jumping all over the Saints this week, so I will wait to see if Chicago approach -1 or even PK later in the week. Leaning toward the Bears.

Bears were horribly exposed today against a banged up Seahawks OL and WR corp yet they were able to move the ball at will, Rexy proved again why he is clearly the worst QB of all the teams that were in the post season. Continually getting rushed and was a turnover waiting to happen. I had money on the Bears and cringed everytime the pill was in his hands.

Hasselbeck also had his way against the Bears secondary today.

IMO Bears better hope for a snowstorm come Sunday

flmmkrz
01-15-2007, 06:09 PM
I like the bears and Indy this weekend

While the legend that is Brady continues to grow they got lucky to get past an inexperienced chargers team, they were the 2nd best team on the field to me yesterday. Indys battle tested and Sanders has given the defense some swagger. Go figure the year that everyone wanted to count the colts out as superbowl contenders is the year they're gonna win it imo.

Re: the bears. Where yesterday much of the public saw the bears exposed I think the opposite. Hawks came in almost daring them to continue throwing deep as they were playing cloud coverage most of the day and hoping Rex would shoot himself in the foot and for the most part he played smart football. Hawks have serious playmakers at linebacker in JP, Hill and Lofa so he was seeing blitzes all game long and the chances for him to self destruct were there but props to him he did enough to get the w. While the saints are healthier they don't have anything on defense that is going to scare the bears. The secondary for the saints is prolly the same calibre as the back ups seattle trotted onto the field and their linebackers can't compare. The bears offense will have time to throw and when Rex has time he tends to be on point, Saints are also terrible against the run so the jones/benson combo should find itself very useful again. On offense I believe the saints will have trouble. Especially if Horn isn't ready to go. The bears are big strong and tackle incredibly well. Bush will get nowhere on these guys hes not big or physical enough and he gets a lot of yards off missed tackles and his escapability the bears just wrap up too well. Of the 2 Deuce should have more running room as the hawks exposed the weakness in the inside running game but with Brown the strength of the saints running game is off left tackle so its not an ideal running situation for the saints. Not having the crowd and the dome like conditions will hurt them as well. Like I believed for the chargers last weekend, the saints aren't ready to win yet, they're a bit away from that and a few players on defense away from it. Nice story but they're overmatched here in my opinion.

Nitefaery
01-16-2007, 12:17 AM
I agree with Indy and Chicago, as does Vegas. The lines are pretty much where they should be. Chicago -2 and Indy -3. To me you can't count anyone out here. The saints are playing incredible this year and the patriots are always in contention. The colts have weaknesses that the pats will exploit. Chicago can handle the saints offense but I think the saints can handle the bears offense as well. It's all up in the air here really but I do like the NE/IND Over 47.

sports freak
01-16-2007, 05:21 AM
Get on Dungy n the Boys,SuperBowl here they come!!!

dave nz
01-17-2007, 11:34 AM
Get on Dungy n the Boys,SuperBowl here they come!!!

:eek:

bad gambler
01-20-2007, 06:38 AM
Two for me this weekend:

Saints to beat Bears - $2.20

Colts to cover -3 v Pats - $1.91 (biggest post season play for me)

good luck

rod_steel
01-20-2007, 11:50 AM
Saints with the football points for me

Leaning on the Colts as well

rod_steel
01-20-2007, 11:51 AM
Get on Dungy n the Boys,SuperBowl here they come!!!

Agree, this is probably the year for them to rest a few demons of the past

Rush defense has been unreal these payoffs so far, been the big difference

Nitefaery
01-21-2007, 05:19 AM
Well my opinions haven't changed and I'm on the colts -3 + the bears -3.

its.like.that
01-21-2007, 08:39 AM
CHI v NO - under 43.5

IND v NE - under 47.5

BOL

Nitefaery
01-21-2007, 05:48 PM
Colts -3 (6 units)
Bears -3 (2 units)
1H CHI/NO Over 21 (1 unit)
1H NE/IND Over 23.5 (1 unit)

Lebowski
01-21-2007, 07:30 PM
The Golden Boy $2.65

Cant believe I'm doing this ..... Mentally Challenged Rex $1.70

flmmkrz
01-21-2007, 07:54 PM
while not playoff related I thought I would share the good news. Jim Mora Jr now the secondary coach of your 2008 superbowl champions to be seattle seahawks. Finally got someone who can teach our backs to make some plays on the ball.

betowiec
01-21-2007, 09:42 PM
saints -9 2nd half @ 4.4

Mistaflava
01-21-2007, 09:54 PM
AFC Championship


New England Patriots +3 (100 Units)

The New England Patriots can only be described in one simple way...DYNASTY! I don't care what you say about this whether it be that they are always lucky or it be that they always have the refs on their side. At the end of the day, the Patriots know how to win football games when it counts most and they know how to do it in impressive fashion. Tom Brady has never lost a game as a starter indoors (in a Dome) and I don't think he is about to lose another one. You cannot argue with me when I say that there has never been a better playoff quarterback than Tom Brady. He is kind of like the UNDERTAKER in the WWE. The man from the darkside has never lost at Wrestlemania and as much as people think his streak is bound to come to and end, it just won't. Time and time again, the public and most square bettors decided that the Patriots are worth fading and that the Patriots are not as good as everyone thinks. Once again, this is the playoffs guys and you can't look at anything that was done in the regular season. Doubting this team is easy because of their losses to Indianapolis, Miami and the Jets this year. Even with their injuries and the guys they are constantly missing on a weekly basis, the Pats find a way to make it up and compensate for the injuries. Every player on this depth chart is well coached and knows what they have to do if they are brought into this game. The Patriots come into this game averaging 27.1 points per game on the road this season 347.0 total yards per game and 5.5 yards per play. Indianapolis has been playing oustanding defense all post-season but the Patriots are the most composed and complex offense they have seen yet. They are allowing 17.3 points per home game this season for 268.7 for 4.9 yards per play which is impressive at home. On the ground, the Patriots are averaging 127.3 rushing yards per road game on 4.3 yards per carry this season. As we all know, Indianapolis has plugged all their holes on the run defense since the playoffs started but who better to expose that than Bill Bellichik? The Colts allowed 4.9 yards per carry at home this year and something has to give. Herm Edwards is a dumbass and his game approach was bad. In the air, Tom Brady as I mentioned is 9-0 indoors in his career with a QB Rating of 105.8. He has completed 67.4% of his passes in those games for 8.3 yards per pass attempt, 19 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Indianapolis are allowing a 63.2% completion rate at home but for only 5.0 yards per pass attempt. That means Brady should have no problems completing his usual short passes and moving the chains, keeping the Colts offense off the field. The Patriots are converting 43.9% of 3rd downs away from home and scoring TD's 69.7% of the time in the Red Zone on the road. The Colts have had problems at home on special teams and Kevin Faulk has been outstanding all year when it comes to returning punts. I don't really care what anyone says, the Patriots are going to win this chess match of QB's and I repeat for the 10th time that going against Tom Brady on the spread and on the ML is pretty much as suicidal as it gets.

The Indianapolis Colts have been one of the teams I have went against the most this year and although I cashed in on a few occasions in the regular season, I am now 0-2 ATS betting against them in the playoffs. What can I say about that? Had it not been for them, I would be 5-1 in the playoffs and would not have had to bet a lot on this game. However, I studied a lot of stats and a lot of facts about the Colts this week and this matchup does not favor them. The regular season meeting was an easy win by Manning and the Colts and I strongly believe that the line should have come out Indianapolis -1 for this game as well as the regular season meeting. The Colts had huge defensive question marks coming into the playoffs but shockingly enough, they have allowed only one touchdown all post-season in two games and have been the reason this team is where they are right now. Manning and his offense have gone missing for the most part of the post-season and although I don't doubt they can score some points today, how many and when will be the big answer we are all looking for. The Colts already beat the Pats but what that does is give the New England coaching staff exactly the kind of film they wanted. All they have to do is check out that tape and work on what didn't work in the first meeting at home. The Colts come into this game averaging 28.9 points per game at home this season on 399.0 total yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. New England is allowing only 14.3 points per road game this season on only 291.6 total yards per game and 5.3 yards per play. However, that comes even with all the injuries they had this year. They are the best overall defense (3 deep on the depth chart) in the NFL. On the ground, we will no doubt see a lot of RB Joseph Addai but the Patriots are allowing only 93.7 rushing yards per road game this season and running Addai may not be the best idea regardless of his success this season. In the air, Manning had an outstanding year completing 65.0% of his passes for 7.9 yards per pass attempt, 31 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. However, the Patriots allowed only 54.7% of passes to be completed against them on the road for only 6.2 yards per pass attempt. That would pretty much eliminate what Manning likes to do and that is move the ball on short and effective passes. The Patriots average 3.1 sacks per road game and if anyone can get to Manning and force into bad decisions, it's this defense and their schemes. The Colts are up against a defense that allowd only 33.3% of 3rd downs to be converted against them on the road this year and who intercepted one pass per game away from home. Getting pressure on Manning and shutting down his momentum is something the Patriots have always done and something they can surely this time around. I know it's frustrating for Manning, but he won't reach the Super Bowl until someone can burry the Pats before he faces them.

We are all smart bettors. Why in the world would you bet on Indianapolis? In my opinion, if you have any sense of the betting world, you are either on New England in this game or you are not touching it. It makes absolutely no sense to take Indianapolis in this spot regardless of what you think. The public is pretty much divided on this game and that makes sense because both teams are the best there is in the NFL. How easy would it be to look back at their last meeting and see how Indianapolis killed the Pats on the road ealier this year and figure 'Hey, they are at home now, should be a bigger blowout'? Big mistakes guys. The line is set perfectly for most square bettors who are going to overthink this thing and think Vegas is trying to trap New England bettors. You just can't go against Tom Brady and Billy B whether you like it or not. This game will be decided by 1 or 2 points. Brady is 12-1 in the playoffs and 9-0 in Domes which would make that 20-1 in situations like this one. Revenge time! How the hell does a smart bettor or anyone with half a brain go with Indy here? Cmon guys!

Trend of the Game: Tom Brady is 12-1 in his NFL Playoff career.


New England 28, Indianapolis 24

betowiec
01-21-2007, 10:46 PM
saints -9 2nd half @ 4.4

Loss

Nitefaery
01-21-2007, 10:53 PM
Colts -3 (6 units)
Bears -3 (2 units) lookinlike a WIN
1H CHI/NO Over 21 (1 unit) WIN
1H NE/IND Over 23.5 (1 unit)

I hear what your sayin mista... I think everyone already knows New England should win this game, but I do believe the colts have what it takes and it will be a very competative game. I'm on the colts as they are hungry for a spot in one of these superbowls, and seeking out revenge on the almighty patriots. Say what you will about the pats dynasty...but dont ignore the colts destiny ;)

betowiec
01-21-2007, 11:20 PM
the analysis of the year:

Connecticut is located in New England
I live in Connecticut

therefore:

Pats for me, ml @ 2.7

bad gambler
01-21-2007, 11:24 PM
the analysis of the year:

Connecticut is located in New England
I live in Connecticut

therefore:

Pats for me, ml @ 2.7

:lol:

Can't wish you luck, but that is probably the best writeup all season :p

flmmkrz
01-21-2007, 11:26 PM
Hedging my colts outright

Pats + 3.5 x 2 units

I believe indy wins as I stated but hopefully indy wins by under 3 and the outright stays alive and I still win

betowiec
01-21-2007, 11:50 PM
:lol:

Can't wish you luck, but that is probably the best writeup all season :p


Luck won't be necessary:eek: :eek:

betowiec
01-22-2007, 03:20 AM
the analysis of the year:

Connecticut is located in New England
I live in Connecticut

therefore:

Pats for me, ml @ 2.7

Loss

Nitefaery
01-22-2007, 03:38 AM
Colts -3 (6 units) WIN
Bears -3 (2 units) WIN
1H CHI/NO Over 21 (1 unit) WIN
1H NE/IND Over 23.5 (1 unit)WIN

Gotta love the colts...greatest game ive seen in a long time.
Props to the bears as well!

betowiec
01-22-2007, 03:39 AM
Gotta love the colts...greatest game ive seen in a long time.
Props to the bears as well!

don't get too excited

pats have won 3 superbowls

how many do the colts have?

SwiSha
01-22-2007, 03:41 AM
don't get too excited

pats have won 3 superbowls

how many do the colts have?

i have a funny feeling that Grossman will win it :lol:

betowiec
01-22-2007, 03:44 AM
i have a funny feeling that Grossman will win it :lol:

i am telling you, bet of the year is: grossman to be the mvp

bad gambler
01-22-2007, 06:47 AM
Two for me this weekend:

Saints to beat Bears - $2.20

Colts to cover -3 v Pats - $1.91 (biggest post season play for me)

good luck

lost on the Saints, won on the Colts, still unsure how though

Most amazing game I have ever seen

sports freak
01-22-2007, 09:56 AM
Get on Dungy n the Boys,SuperBowl here they come!!!

:eek: :woohoo: :banana:

dave nz
01-22-2007, 10:11 AM
:eek: :woohoo: :banana:

Congrats u were right, they win it too IMO.

sports freak
01-22-2007, 10:56 AM
Congrats u were right, they win it too IMO.

Yeah,i hope they do aswell Dave!!Unfortunately didnt watch the game,only saw the result but will be watching the reply abit later!!