Will Blake Qualify for the TMC? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Will Blake Qualify for the TMC?

ufokart
10-19-2006, 12:23 AM
Sorry if this thread has already been started.

After his defeat today, i looked up the race points of Blake and if i'm right, the only tournament left where he can gain points is in Paris.

And according to the updates in the ATP site Blake has only 1 point more than Robredo and 14 more than Nalbandian. Both Nalbandian and Robredo can still gain points in Madrid, in the optionals and in Paris, so i'm guessing they will make Blake drop to number 8.

I think both Haas and Ancic have a better shot at Paris than him and it's very possible for Blake to not qualify for the cup.

Am i right or is something wrong with my analysis? Do you think he'll still qualify?

Johnny Groove
10-19-2006, 12:29 AM
ancic has alreaady lost, and haas and robredo will lose tomorrow, and Biggie will scrape thru and make it to Shanghai

Voo de Mar
10-19-2006, 01:51 AM
haas and robredo will lose tomorrow

:D

I think Blake will be on the 6th place in Masters. In front of Robredo and... Berdych ;)

Jaffas85
10-19-2006, 01:58 AM
Blake is pretty much a lock for the TMC.

Only Robredo, Nalbandian and Baghdatis are up in the air.

Ancic and Haas won't qualify.

Merton
10-19-2006, 02:01 AM
The cutoff will probably be around 430 race points, so James is not completely safe at the moment. He can lock it by making the quarters in Paris.

ufokart
10-19-2006, 03:08 AM
Blake is pretty much a lock for the TMC.

Only Robredo, Nalbandian and Baghdatis are up in the air.

Ancic and Haas won't qualify.

Nalbandian and Robredo can still gain points in Madrid, in some of the tournaments next week and in Paris. Baghdatis can do the same, except in Madrid because he just lost.
But Blake can ONLY gain points in Paris. If he loses like he did this week he will gain virtually no points and if Robredo, Nalbandian and Baghdatis have just decent results they would surpass him. I believe Ancic is dangerous too.

I'm not saying he won't qualify, but i believe he is far from being a lock as you say.

Jlee
10-19-2006, 03:47 AM
Nalbandian and Robredo can still gain points in Madrid, in some of the tournaments next week and in Paris. Baghdatis can do the same, except in Madrid because he just lost.
But Blake can ONLY gain points in Paris. If he loses like he did this week he will gain virtually no points and if Robredo, Nalbandian and Baghdatis have just decent results they would surpass him. I believe Ancic is dangerous too.

I'm not saying he won't qualify, but i believe he is far from being a lock as you say.

Thanks for that info.

So I guess if Nalbandian and Robredo were to lose soon in Madrid, it would be good for James. Plus he has to do better than Baghdatis and Ancic in Paris. The second part alone would probably give him a spot for sure then wouldn't it?

mrserenawilliams
10-19-2006, 06:40 AM
COME ON BLAKE!

mrserenawilliams
10-19-2006, 05:09 PM
Is he still safe now that Robredo and Baghdatis are out?

ufokart
10-19-2006, 05:20 PM
With his win against Henman Nalby currently has 407 points, Robredo has 410 points, Blake has 411 and Baghdatis is a bit far with 372 points.

Next week Nalby is playing in Basel, Robredo is playing in St Petersburg and Baghdatis in Lyon.
Baghdatis can start winning points just by reaching the round of 16 and Robredo will star to accumulate if he reaches quarterfinal or better. Both draws i assume are going to be moderately weak so there is a great chance for them to gain points.
Nalby on the other hand can gain points in Basel even if he loses in the first round, so a couple of good showings will improve his race ranking.
Blake will play in Paris next, according to the ATP site and he can only gain points there. But if nalby, baghdatis and Robredo all have good torunaments next week, then Blake will need to win some matches in Paris or he won't qualify.

If i made a mistake someone should point it out, but i think this is how things are right now :)

Voo de Mar
10-19-2006, 05:20 PM
I think that Gonzalez and Berdych have still chances to play in Shanghai.

ReturnWinner
10-19-2006, 05:23 PM
yes and djokovic too
I think that Gonzalez and Berdych have still chances to play in Shanghai.

Voo de Mar
10-19-2006, 05:27 PM
Maybe even Murray if he beat Djokovic tonight :)

ChinoRios4Ever
10-19-2006, 05:28 PM
Blake will be IN, I think....

ufokart
10-19-2006, 05:37 PM
Maybe even Murray if he beat Djokovic tonight

This is almost impossible.
Murray has 259 points. If he wins Madrid (unlikely) he'll have 344.
If then he wins Basel (again, unlikely) he'll end up with 394.

Currently, 394 points will put him in the 9th spot so he'll still be out. All of this is assuming nobody above him gains points next week (ridiculous).
Even if he wins Paris he'll have 494 points.

I don't see him winning Basel and two master series in a row, and that's almost his only chance of qualifying :lol:

Monteque
10-19-2006, 05:39 PM
HE WILL. He still has a chance in Paris.
GO BLAKE

NyGeL
10-19-2006, 05:42 PM
Blake will qualify for sure.

Regenbogen
10-19-2006, 05:47 PM
This is almost impossible.
Murray has 259 points. If he wins Madrid (unlikely) he'll have 344.
If then he wins Basel (again, unlikely) he'll end up with 394.

Currently, 394 points will put him in the 9th spot so he'll still be out. All of this is assuming nobody above him gains points next week (ridiculous).
Even if he wins Paris he'll have 494 points.

I don't see him winning Basel and two master series in a row, and that's almost his only chance of qualifying :lol:

haha oh well :lol: though I highly doubt anyone was expecting him to


I think Blake will make it. But I hope not :p

henree
10-19-2006, 06:24 PM
Blake was scheduled to play Basel. But pulled out yesterday due to illness. He gets a week of rest, and can be fresh for a nice run in Paris.

ChinoRios4Ever
10-19-2006, 06:24 PM
hard to see a player with 400+ pts out of the Masters

ufokart
10-19-2006, 06:34 PM
If Baghdatis wins Lyon, which is a possibility considering that Ljubicic pulled out and that Roddick may well do the same, baghdatis would finish the week with 417 points, that is, 6 points ahead of Blake. Ljubicic retired from lyon and there is a strong possibility that Roddick does the same. Then Baghdatis would end up being the first seed.

If he wins Lyon he'll have more points than Blake and then Blake would be forced to advance at least one more round than Baghdatis in the Paris masters.

I'm not saying it will happen, but is a pretty good possibility.

That tennis kid
10-19-2006, 07:18 PM
Should Blake manage to win a round or two in Paris he should be fine. Baghdatis could gain a bit of ground next week, but Baghdatis isn't at his best in smaller events so could quite easily lose early in Lyon. The entry list isn't too weak and with Safin as a lurker Baghdatis could face a very tough draw. Baghdatis could get in over Blake, Robredo or Nalbandian but it is looking less likely now. Gonzalez, Haas, Berdych and the like also have a chance but need to go deep in both of the Master Series and hope other results go their way.

mrserenawilliams
10-19-2006, 08:26 PM
COME ON BLAKE@

Voo de Mar
10-19-2006, 09:31 PM
This is almost impossible.
Murray has 259 points. [...]
I don't see him winning Basel and two master series in a row, and that's almost his only chance of qualifying :lol:

You have right. But there is other possibility... Last year in Masters: Fernando Gonzalez had three match points in his match against Gaudio for a spot in semis. Gonzalez was then 13 player in the world. He played because Nadal, Roddick, Hewitt, Agassi and Safin withdraw from Masters Cup due to injury.
In Madrid '06 Roddick had problems with his left ankle. Also Ljubicic has some problems. Blake too. They pulled out of Lyon & Basel events.
So, who knows what will be in this year with players rank 1-8 at the beginning of November?

ufokart
10-19-2006, 09:33 PM
You have right. But there is other possibility... Last year in Masters: Fernando Gonzalez had three match points in his match against Gaudio for a spot in semis. Gonzalez was then 13 player in the world. He played because Nadal, Roddick, Agassi and Safin withdraw from Masters Cup due to injury.
In Madrid '06 Roddick had problems with his left ankle. Also Ljubicic has some problems. He pulls out of Lyon event.
So, who knows what will be in this year with players rank 1-8 at the beginning of November?

You are right, but we are talking about the chances to qualify directly, not their chance of being lucky losers :lol:
Even with a few withdrawals Andy's chances of getting in are slim at best.

Voo de Mar
10-19-2006, 11:12 PM
Murray lost to Djokovic and probalby lost theoretical chances to qualify for Masters.

ufokart
10-19-2006, 11:28 PM
Yeah, with his loss, it's impossible for him to get to the TMC unless some people withdraw.
If he wins Basel and Paris he will get 409 points. If we use the current race standings he'll be at number 8, barely making him qualify, but again, tha's assuming noone else adds points and that he wins both basel and Paris :rolleyes: .

My guess is that he will finish with around 320 points and he would be around 13 or 14 in the race ranking. This means his chances of entering because of a withdrawal are virtually nonexistant. Maybe you should wait for next year.

It's fun to speculate :lol:

scarecrows
10-19-2006, 11:33 PM
Next week Nalby is playing in Basel, Robredo is playing in St Petersburg and Baghdatis in Lyon.
B

very smart from Boredo

first he playes Mumbai now St Petersburg
goes where the level is lower to get the points

hopefully he wont qualify

Voo de Mar
10-19-2006, 11:36 PM
"It's fun to speculate"

Exactly :)

mrserenawilliams
10-25-2006, 02:18 AM
so with Baghs and Robredo losing early, he's in right?

Deboogle!.
10-25-2006, 02:20 AM
so with Baghs and Robredo losing early, he's in right?not officially no. There are still some scenarios that could have him out of the top 8.

+alonso
10-25-2006, 02:21 AM
He's pretty much in, I think

Robredo hasn't show big activity in this part of the year, not offending
Baghdatis, same as Robredo :shrug:
Well, That's a weird combi, I'm not good at mixing possibilities :rolls:

Voo de Mar
10-25-2006, 02:22 AM
"so with Baghs and Robredo losing early, he's in right?"

Not yet. Maybe tomorrow if Bolelli will overcome Gonzalez ;)

Deboogle!.
10-25-2006, 02:27 AM
Winston's Human did this for us in the Andy forum when someone asked.....

To qualify, James needs to progress a round further than either Robredo or Gonzo (if Gonzo wins Basel).

If James and Robredo tie in points, Robredo will advance because he has more grand slam points and more masters tournament points.

If Gonzo does not win Basel but reaches the SF or F, James will need to progress as far as Gonzo. If Gonzo loses early, James has some breathing room.

With his loss today, Baghdatis will need to go deep in Paris (such as a SF) to put pressure on the other three bottom contenders.

Voo de Mar
10-25-2006, 02:33 AM
Maybe Blake will be fighting directly with Robredo in Paris :confused:
I would like to see Blake and Gonzo in Shanghai. They are better indoor players then Spaniard.

katulampa
10-25-2006, 02:41 AM
He could still qualify ;)

mrserenawilliams
10-25-2006, 03:27 AM
let's hope Gonzo loses early tomorrow

*Viva Chile*
10-25-2006, 03:40 AM
let's hope Gonzo loses early tomorrw
:rolleyes:

mrserenawilliams
10-25-2006, 03:53 AM
sorry....I really want Blake to make TMC :hug: no offence....I really like Gonzo, but I would prefer James to make it over anyone else

Jlee
10-25-2006, 04:24 AM
sorry....I really want Blake to make TMC :hug: no offence....I really like Gonzo, but I would prefer James to make it over anyone else

Same...I would rather Robredo get knocked out and have James and Fernando both go though.

ufokart
10-25-2006, 04:25 AM
I think at this point that Blake will get there. Either by qualifying directly or by retirement he's going to be there :p