the trek continues, Week 2 [Archive] -

the trek continues, Week 2

09-05-2006, 10:47 PM
Tough loss yesterday, but aren't all losses tough? I guess some are tougher than others.

Minnesota Twins -1.5, $137 to win $100


The Twins have won 10 straight games Santana has started (3 of those by 1 run) and 19 of his last 20 starts (7 of those were 1-run wins). Jae Seo hasn't pitched since August 20, so don't expect him to beyond 6 innings (which he rarely does anyway) and the D'Rays bullpen is horrible.

If this bet looks like a loss, I may chase with the A's game over late.

Week 2: 0-1, -$159.
Week 1: 5-1, +$913

bad gambler
09-06-2006, 12:08 AM
You liking the A's or the over?

09-06-2006, 01:29 AM
Tonight I`m on the As for a win and the Padres over 7.5. Was on the Marlins tonight, Willis and crew stunk up the field.

The other poster was surely talking about the As/Tx over.

09-06-2006, 03:07 AM
You liking the A's or the over?

The quote was "the A's game over" which means "over the total".

Sorry for the confusion.

Should I keep all my picks in one thread?

Maybe I'll start a tracking thread on Wednesday to keep all picks in form this point forward.

bad gambler
09-06-2006, 03:56 AM
No worries mate - laid off anyway

09-06-2006, 05:11 AM
No worries mate - laid off anyway

Be glad, game didn`t go over. I have come to believe over time that there is no sport more unpredictable than baseball. Net is full of con artists though seeking to sell you their "betting systems." Am about fed up, all are free to give it a go though, JMO.

09-06-2006, 08:44 PM
Hi guys I am a newbie to baseball and could do with some tips. I am a professional punter and have no idea about baseball but a good deal about trading.

Tfan for this I will give you and all the guys the only guaranteed betting system there is for free. No links or site names just fact although It is hard if you are in the US though as you can't use betfair.

I have a betting partner and we trade this way and it is 100% legal and 100% risk free.

You open a betting account with a bookmaker that has an affiliate program
that pays between 25% and 35% of any losing bets you refer. You join the affiliate program.

Now you have someone you trust open a betting account with the bookmaker through your affiliate link and you trade that account.

Now you bet on unlikely outcomes with the bookmaker to win and then lay the unlikely result on betfair to lose for the same stake. You cover your stake and profit if the selection at the bookmaker loses and lose nothing if the selection happens to win. For every 1000.00 you lose at the bookmaker you make between 180 and 230.00 after taxes and betfair commissions if you are on 30%. We trade in UK Pounds to maximize profits.

The best result is to match backing and laying odds but you can adjust as you are making up to 30% minus betfair commission.

You can do this with all sports and horse racing but it is best to stick to baseball, soccer, football etc as there are only two teams so the unlikely result is still trading at under 4/1 so you can recover when the selection wins. Soccer is especially good because the draw is also taken into consideration.

What I mean by recover is this. Affiliate commissions are for the majority reccuring so if a selection wins your commissions are reduced. You are generally paid monthly 25% to 35% of the net profit you create fr the bookmaker.

So if your commission rate is 25% you earn this 1000.00 minus 10% = 900.00 times 25% = 225.00 minus betair commission (5%) = 175.00 profit if betfair account is at 5% commission.

Ladies and gentleman this is the only system worth following and it is not even a system it is simple math. 20 years of screaming in punks bands and this is what I have amounted to a math nerd.

I hope I can make a valuable contribution to this forum have fun!

09-06-2006, 08:53 PM
Yes I am aware of that, commission on loses. Are a bunch of webmasters, so called "handicappers" around that link their sites to betting sites. They get a percentage of loses. So they sell services, "pick packages" while at the same time profitting on loses. Buyer beware...

09-06-2006, 09:32 PM
What do you mean? Just go and look at the major bookmakers and go through their affiliate programs. If you want to profit without risk get one person you trust and trade to lose. Simply open an account through their link and split the affiliate commission each month. Cover your stake at the bookmakers by laying the same amount at the exchange. Don't take my word for it do some research I will never list affiliate links or even mention what bookmakers I use as I do not like spammers and would like to be taken serious here. Some webmasters can be idiots but believe me the bookies offer the commissions because what does 100% of zero equal?