Nadal's chances at Wimbledon? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Nadal's chances at Wimbledon?

gillian
06-11-2006, 05:23 PM
Nadal's a great player, and I think he can (and will) excel on other surfaces...eventually (his ambition is one of the things I like most about him).

So, what does everyone think of his chances at Wimbledon this year? If I'm not mistaken, he lost to Muller last year, I think he's got more confidence in his abilities on non-clay surfaces. How far do you think he'll get at Wimbledon this year? Will he eventually win it?

revolution
06-11-2006, 05:29 PM
I reckon his muscles are stronger than last year, he is serving better. Fish won Surbiton today, so a tough early test for him.

If he wins that then it's his bitch PHM, and you'd expect a bitch-slapping.

Hewitt may be a bridge too far though, we'll see how he plays.

Chloe le Bopper
06-11-2006, 05:33 PM
It will probably depend largely on the nature of the grass surface at Wimbledon.

BlueSwan
06-11-2006, 05:36 PM
His style really doesn't fit Wimbledon. Baseliners have done well at wimbledon in the past - particular during the last few years when the surface has been slower, but the baseliners that do well there are players who take the ball on the rise. This is the main reason why the best claycourters have done so poorly on grass for a long time - they stand to far back, which you cannot afford on such a quick low-bouncing surface.

With a good draw, a totally dedicated Nadal may get to the 4th round, but probably not any further.

I'm sure Fed would love to get a shot at him on his best surface though.

Neverstopfightin
06-11-2006, 05:36 PM
Not even with Roger , Lleyton , Roddick , Nalbandian and Ljubo not playing because of injuries he would able to win the title or reach the final .

His chances are zero this year , but we will see how he is able to improve on grass in the next years

El Legenda
06-11-2006, 05:41 PM
slim to none.

robert6061
06-11-2006, 05:42 PM
At this stage of his career, wimbledon is a step too far for Nadal. He will have to sharpen his volleying skills rapidly if he is to have any chance.
There are far too many powerful all court players who will be lying in wait for him such as Ancic,Blake,Ginepri,Tursenov,Henman,Rusedski and (wash my mouth out)Andy Roddick. the list goes on and on. He was beaten at Halle last year by Alexander Waske who I think would beat Rafa again if they met on a grasscourt.
Rafa has made a very wise choice in renting accomodation in London for a month and playing at Queens next week to obtain maximum practice.
Rafa will still have to improve his grass court game before he can make an impression at Wimbledon and I see him losing in the early rounds.

supersexynadal
06-11-2006, 05:45 PM
I was very proud to see nadal change things and serve and volley today. hes not natural at all but his tactics are very good. He just needs to get comfortable. Im not afraid to say that if he has a good draw he can get to the forth round and maybe lose in the quarters. Hey, if Lopez can do it then so can he. hes very ambitous and thats the key. More confidence might work and hes enting an apartment in wimby with feli so, YAY!!

jenanun
06-11-2006, 05:46 PM
...oops.... tricky...

first, chances of what?

to win one match?
to get into the second week?
getting into final?
or winning the title?

i think he has >50% chance of getting into the second week...

dont dream about rafa getting in the final this year...

but i m sure he will imrpove his game on grass in the next few years....


his problem is, he is playing so so so so well on clay,

that means he always has only 2 weeks to prepare for wimbledon...

tenniswiz
06-11-2006, 05:50 PM
Fat chance this year. His defensive play is best suited for clay that is historically the slowest surface that lets Nadal get to every single ball and put it back in play. I know he's showing some signs of improvement on offense but I still believe he's more of a defense-minded player who thrives on his opponent's mistakes; who basically forces you to make that extra shot or two. That's how Federer basically loses to Nadal on clay, because Federer loves to hit winners all over the court and finish a point quickly but not on clay and definitely not against Nadal who is pretty much a brick wall returning everything and forcing Federer to make some extra shots and consequently UEs. Whereas on grass, Federer is so effective with his forehand winners that Nadal wouldn't even have time to get to the ball without speaking about putting it back in court. Hopefully, Nadal can improve on grass, but I just don't see him winning Wimbledon with the likes of Federer, Roddick, Hewitt, Safin, Nalbandian and maybe Blake and Ljubicic around. Sorry no Wimbledon title for the Mallorca tennis prodigy in the foreseeable future. :sad:

BlueSwan
06-11-2006, 05:51 PM
his problem is, he is playing so so so so well on clay,

that means he always has only 2 weeks to prepare for wimbledon...
Well, Roger doesn't have more time either.

DDrago2
06-11-2006, 05:54 PM
We will see very soon I hope, no need to make predictions

P.S. He has more chance if he avoids Alexandar Waske :lol:

jenanun
06-11-2006, 05:55 PM
Well, Roger doesn't have more time either.

when roger won 1st and 2nd wimbledon title, he didnt go that deep in RG...

nadal hasnt got the game at the moment to do well on grass, so he needs extra time to prepare for good results


roger is from another planet... so we shouldnt compare him with other ATP players...

MisterQ
06-11-2006, 05:57 PM
It's always interesting to watch a player win on his least comfortable surface. To what extent does he stick to his normal game plan, or alter it fit the surface? It will be fascinating to see what Nadal comes up with.

NicoFan
06-11-2006, 05:57 PM
Not much of a chance. He said himself today that he's hoping in 2-3 years that he can do something there.

I personally think that he's got a good chance to kick butt on hardcourts - and he's already proven he can win on hardcourts. I would rather have him put his efforts there and worry about the US Open.

revolution
06-11-2006, 05:59 PM
Not much of a chance. He said himself today that he's hoping in 2-3 years that he can do something there.

I personally think that he's got a good chance to kick butt on hardcourts - and he's already proven he can win on hardcourts. I would rather have him put his efforts there and worry about the US Open.

Agreed.

I like Fernando's chances in Queens though, he will kick Rusedski butt :rocker2:

NicoFan
06-11-2006, 06:45 PM
Agreed.

I like Fernando's chances in Queens though, he will kick Rusedski butt :rocker2:

I hope so!!! I like Fer's chances too - he's got a good game for grass. :yeah:

Argenbrit
06-11-2006, 06:47 PM
2nd round if he's lucky.

Nacho
06-11-2006, 06:54 PM
quarters at best

but... vamos rafa, go for it ;)

Scotso
06-11-2006, 06:55 PM
With a favorable draw, he could make the finals.

Jimnik
06-11-2006, 06:58 PM
With a good draw, maybe the 4th round.

tenniswiz
06-11-2006, 07:05 PM
With a favorable draw, he could make the finals.
Even with a favorable draw, I don't see Nadal making the finals of Wimbledon. Look at Ljubicic's draw at Roland Garros, probably one of the easiest ever, but still he had to play Nadal in the semis. Nadal is bound to play a Top 20 opponent from the quarters and on whose specialty might just as well be grass or fast court and I wouldn't bet on Nadal coming through in those kinds of matches on his least favorite surface.

Scotso
06-11-2006, 07:31 PM
Nadal's game may not be suited to fast courts... but his grit and determination translates to any surface.

nhissan
06-11-2006, 08:06 PM
rofl I don't think so

scarecrows
06-11-2006, 08:09 PM
his serve and volleys have improved so I see him making at least the quarters

stebs
06-11-2006, 08:12 PM
Hmmm...

I think with a half decent draw he should be able to reach the third round without problems. He has a serve which is probably slightly under-rated. It may look different when played on grass court but he may surprise a few people with some aces. He has very good volleying skills which I think is the most under-rated part of his game and although he is defensive he can attack well.

From then on it depends on his opponenets. If he faces a big hitter on form he will not be able to get past them but if he faces another scrapper he may be able to out scrao them and reach the fourth round and maybe the quarter finals. Then if he happens to have the dodgy quarter finalist (there's always one) he can progress to the semi's. The he will almost surely lose.

So, for me semi's is the best he can do and without a really rough draw he will probably go out in 4th round or thereabouts.

Deivid23
06-11-2006, 08:14 PM
Still too soon, but he will improve and some day he will be good enough to have a shot at the title.

scarecrows
06-11-2006, 08:16 PM
if he'll be good enough to have a shot at the title then he'll not be able to win RG

tenniswiz
06-11-2006, 08:20 PM
Nadal's game may not be suited to fast courts... but his grit and determination translates to any surface.
Yes, which could be just good enough to reach the second week at Wimbledon. However, reaching the Wimbly final is a bit of a stretch even for Rafa's resoluteness and sedulity. Besides those two requisites, Rafa needs some serious skill on grass too, don't you think? Once he acquires it, I'll start taking his winning chances at Wimbledon seriously, before then, he'll just remain a good grass court player.

Jagermeister
06-11-2006, 08:21 PM
Right now, pretty nil. Between his extreme grips, his lack of mph on the serve, and all the mileage on his body from the clay season, it'd be very tough on him.

Getting to the 2nd week would be a good achievement.

Metis
06-11-2006, 09:01 PM
IMO Nadal's dedication and determination are truly extraordinary and inspiring. Given that, I think he might have a chance to win Wimbledon next year!

Federerhingis
06-11-2006, 09:47 PM
With a favorable draw, he could make the finals.

Roddick would not permit that. I wouldn't be too surprised if he made the semis. His grit alone takes him to the 4th round.

scoobs
06-11-2006, 09:49 PM
If he can get used to digging the balls up and making something of them (and let's face it he's not bad at that now), then he can go far on the grass.

I can't wait to see it, actually - I'd love for Rafa to do well on grass - not so well as to beat Federer of course but I'd like him to be a genuine all surface player.

Merton
06-11-2006, 10:07 PM
It is not realistic to expect anything this year given the emotional and physical energy that he just spent on clay. Indeed the cynical thing (from the point of view of resting and recovering his energy) would be to skip the grass season alltogether. Rafa would never do that though.

scoobs
06-11-2006, 10:09 PM
It is not realistic to expect anything this year given the emotional and physical energy that he just spent on clay. Indeed the cynical thing (from the point of view of resting and recovering his energy) would be to skip the grass season alltogether. Rafa would never do that though.
Trouble is, we said that as well last year.

That has to stop being true at some point - Rafa is never going to sacrifice Roland Garros for Wimbledon, is he...

Tom_Bombadil
06-11-2006, 10:33 PM
Guys, I know I'm a Rafa fan maybe a little biased in this point. But I would never overlook Nadal's mental strength. His most powerful weapon is his mental power, he's smart in the court. And that weapon adapts to any court, and it's the most powerful weapon in any competitive game.

So, about the energy and stamina. Don't you think Nadal's waste of energy in this RG was more conservative? I mean, I observed a voluntary change in his aproach to points. Don't you see that? I mean, he didn't do many vamos, or wavings of his arms. He is becoming more intelligent each time from my point of view, cause I think Nadal's lack of celebrations were previously decided, what makes him scary IMO. It's almost as if he decided not to waste too many energy and focusing his game and energy more in the long term.

On the other hand, I know the Grand Slam he most desires is Wimbledon. The French press will always ask him questions about RG being the greatest thing that can happen to him being an Spanish player and all that stuff (they invented the chauvinism so no surprise here). Nadal is smart enough to tell them how wonderful it is for him, etc. But he has always said the Grand Slam that would make him most happy is Wimbledon.

Of course, I'm not saying he's going to win it this year. But maybe he is defetead on the 2nd round in Queens and then goes to Nottingham, maybe he's defeated on the 3rd round, and then goes to Wimbly and, who knows? Maybe he could jump to the second week.

Being on the second week would be a good objective for him this year. And maybe he can win it in the next 2 or 3 years if he keeps improving his game and his mental strength.

zicofirol
06-11-2006, 10:34 PM
With a favorable draw, he could make the finals.
NO, no way, he might get 4 round if he gets very easy draw, but my prediction is again 2nd round.
To make it to the finals he will have to get by Roddick or Nalbandian both of them woudl beat him on grass and anyone who takes them out and plays Nadal would also beat him, really there are many players that could beat Nadal on grass, many...

Corey Feldman
06-11-2006, 11:10 PM
the main thing is he said he loves Wimbledon and wants to win, so that's a good start.

i want him to go deep into Wimbledon this year.
but chances of him reaching a final?? i just dont know if he can beat top grass courters with his 10 feet behind the baseline play and not such a huge serve.

gillian
06-11-2006, 11:11 PM
It's always interesting to watch a player win on his least comfortable surface. To what extent does he stick to his normal game plan, or alter it fit the surface? It will be fascinating to see what Nadal comes up with.

Yup, that is what intrigues me most about Nadal...seeing what he can do on other surfaces. I'm interested to see if/how he adjusts to the faster surfaces as his career unfolds. He's obviously talented, crafty and ambitious, so I wonder how that will translate at the other majors.

Clara Bow
06-11-2006, 11:13 PM
I think he may reach Ro16 or the quarters since his volleys, bh and serve have improved. But I don't see him going really further. Still- a second week appearance would be great for him and fit in with his multi-year plan. :)

I would love for him to reach the second week- because I think it would be great for the winner of RG to do so.

Deivid23
06-11-2006, 11:15 PM
i just dont know if he can beat top grass courters with his 10 feet behind the baseline play and not such a huge serve.

The scary thing is that although he´s very good at that kind of defensive game, he has definetely improved his serve and his volleys this year and he´s being more agressive, stepping into the court and ripping forehands with great angles all over the court. And trust me, that forehand can also cause damage on grass, so I think we will see lots of surprised faces in 2-3 years as I think Nadal will have quite a run in Wimbledon at that point of his career :D

LleytonMonfils
06-12-2006, 12:57 AM
Put it this way if Roger and Nadal were in the final at Wimbledon you would see a straight sets win go to Federer. o many of the fore hands Roger smashed today would go flying by Nadal on the grass. NO CHANCE!

tenniswiz
06-12-2006, 01:02 AM
Put it this way if Roger and Nadal were in the final at Wimbledon you would see a straight sets win go to Federer. o many of the fore hands Roger smashed today would go flying by Nadal on the grass. NO CHANCE!
Yup, those forehand winners that Federer rips at Wimbledon would demolish Nadal's highly touted defense. The kid is quick but he's no superman.