French Open R1 thoughts and outright bets [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

French Open R1 thoughts and outright bets

Horatio Caine
05-26-2006, 03:20 PM
I thought this might be quite a good idea as R1 will be spread over 3 days so it is not clear which match plays when.

I haven't had time to study the draw, but if the odds are over 1.40 (probably unlikely) I'd hammer the shit out of Henman over Carlsen.

Freeze17171
05-26-2006, 04:56 PM
I hope bookies make that mistake, but it is doubtful. Carlsen lifetime 0-4 at RG, 0-1 this year losing to a NR player, 1-9 in his last 10 only beating Alex Kim in 2004, 7-20 lifetime on clay. Ouch.

From first glance at the draw, I'm thinking Federer/Robredo, Nalbandian/Davydenko, Stepanek/Ferrer, Almagro/Nadal are the quarterfinal matchups.

Jaap
05-26-2006, 05:19 PM
The following look good to me:

Henman over Carlsen.
Capdeville over Rusedski.
Lapentti over Moodie.
Martin over Roddick.
Monfils over Murray.
Muller over Mirnyi.
Montanes over Ginepri.

Couple of long shots - Portas to beat Baghdatis and Santoro to beat Acasuso.


Maybe the qualifier over Gimelstob, Goldstein, Youhzny, Sabau depending on who they are.

Jaap
05-26-2006, 05:25 PM
Its not a great draw though IMO in terms of betting oppurtunities. Hopefully there will be some good prices when the lines come out though.

Horatio Caine
05-26-2006, 06:51 PM
Its not a great draw though IMO in terms of betting oppurtunities. Hopefully there will be some good prices when the lines come out though.

Well I'm sure there are some good openings...I'll be studying it in a few hours.

Freeze makes a good point about Henman though...the odds might be lower than 1.20 :( Absolutely no chance he loses to Carlsen so I might even hammer a 1.30.

flmmkrz
05-26-2006, 06:55 PM
I took JHH to win the womens outright @ 3.5. Havent looked at the mens draw as yet

Jaap
05-26-2006, 07:09 PM
Well I'm sure there are some good openings...I'll be studying it in a few hours.

Freeze makes a good point about Henman though...the odds might be lower than 1.20 :( Absolutely no chance he loses to Carlsen so I might even hammer a 1.30.
It might even be worth doing Henman to win 3-0. I guess that would be near £1.90-2.00. I don't think Carlsen has even played a clay court event this season has he? He will want to get on the grass as soon as possible.

The risk with this is that Henman is always liable to have a set where he goes walkabouts. :rolleyes:

Jaap
05-26-2006, 07:11 PM
Any views on the Safin-Gonzo match? :eek:

Cornincrap
05-26-2006, 07:16 PM
Hammer any match that Carlsen plays on clay... any

He's only relying on his serve to pull him through matches, and dont even expect anything from him on grass. Havent seen him this season, but I wouldnt rate him highly judging from what ive seen the last couple of seasons. Go back 4 years or so, and he played a lot better.... Hammer it Jez

Cornincrap
05-26-2006, 07:39 PM
Hmm i wouldnt bet a lot on him taking the game 3-0, if he has one of those days where he servers incredibly.... then he will be able to hold his serve in most sets. Its still a pretty clear win to Henman :-). I think the best hes done this year is quarterfinal in some challenger tournament on Lanzarote, really not impressive

Cornincrap
05-26-2006, 07:42 PM
Lets hope for something somewhere in the region of 1.35

and maybe a little punt on 3-0 but not much, all depends on the price given

Jaap
05-26-2006, 07:45 PM
Henman 1/3 or £1.33 with Paddy power. :angel:

Jaap
05-26-2006, 07:57 PM
Right, I'am really liking:

Muller @ £2.20 to beat Mirnyi.
Capediville @ £1.91 to beat Rusedski.
Kohlschreiber @ £1.80 to beat Marach.
Berdych @ £1.44 to beat Lopez.

Ays25
05-26-2006, 07:59 PM
do we have sundays order of play?

Jaap
05-26-2006, 08:17 PM
do we have sundays order of play?
On the mens side - Federer vs Clement, Acasuso vs Santoro, Henman vs Carlsen, Moya vs Marin, Robredo vs Zib and Nalbandian vs Wawrinka.

Anyone like Novak @ £1.83 to beat Tursunov? Normally I would back anyone to beat Dimi on clay but I question Novak's ability to last more than 3 sets on clay after just coming back from injury.

Cornincrap
05-26-2006, 08:35 PM
Hmm Novak has been playing a lot of tennis lately (the last couple of days), and he looked quite tired against Davydenko today, but I'd also expect him to beat Dimi, but I wouldnt bet on it

JMG
05-26-2006, 08:51 PM
How comes that gamebookers has Lopez @126 while Jarkko is @201. :retard: What an insult.

Horatio Caine
05-26-2006, 09:39 PM
Hmm i wouldnt bet a lot on him taking the game 3-0, if he has one of those days where he servers incredibly.... then he will be able to hold his serve in most sets. Its still a pretty clear win to Henman :-). I think the best hes done this year is quarterfinal in some challenger tournament on Lanzarote, really not impressive

Yeah man I'm hammering 1.30 - THAT is free money! :yeah:

Cheers mate...also thanks to Jaap for the price - but as you say Henman goes walkabout and Carlsen's serve is good enough to maybe hold up for a set or so. Never do set betting when you think Henman will win :scared:

Horatio Caine
05-26-2006, 09:40 PM
Anyone like Novak @ £1.83 to beat Tursunov? Normally I would back anyone to beat Dimi on clay but I question Novak's ability to last more than 3 sets on clay after just coming back from injury.

Really wouldn't surprise me to see Dima in R3 mate...

Personally I think Henman should get to R3 but the winner of Novak/Tursunov will be nasty either way. Novak would beat Tursunov in ordinary circumstances yes...but over 5 sets? Not so sure and I don't want to speculate :lol:

DeccyB123
05-27-2006, 08:00 AM
I accept the fact that it will probably be a Federer-Nadal final, but I've taken two small outright plays on Davydenko @ 41 and Robredo @ 51. A lot of value in these odds, Davydenko probably the greater chance, made the semi's last year, and looking at his draw won't have to play Federer until the semi.

The Undertaker
05-27-2006, 04:41 PM
BAW gives 5.30 on Wawrinka, i will take him and Santoro (4.01) for small stake.

The Undertaker
05-27-2006, 04:44 PM
Montanes over Ginepri
Vicente over Waske
Lapentti over Moodie
Gonzalez over Safin
Berdych over F. Lopez
---------------------
100 to win 624

i2ooney
05-27-2006, 11:12 PM
T Zib V T Robredo T Robredo to Win @ 1.05 Open
K Carlsen V T Henman T Henman to Win @ 1.12 Open
D Nalbandian V S Wawrinka S Wawrinka to Win @ 5.00 Open
X Malisse V N Massu X Malisse to Win @ 3.00 Open
T Berdych V F Lopez T Berdych to Win @ 1.30 Open
J Melzer V N Kiefer N Kiefer to Win @ 1.50 Open
L Dlouhy V K Vliegen K Vliegen to Win @ 1.25 Open
R Gasquet V Y T Wang R Gasquet to Win @ 1.16 Open
S Grosjean V A Pavel S Grosjean to Win @ 1.33 Open
R Sluiter V J Nieminen J NIEMINEN to Win @ 1.12 Open
O Marach V P Kohlschreiber P Kohlschreiber to Win @ 1.66 Open
J C Faurel V O Rochus O Rochus to Win @ 1.11 Open
J Tipsarevic V J Benneteau J Bennetteau to Win @ 2.05 Open
D Ferrer V G Garcia Lopez D Ferrer to Win @ 1.16 Open
F Verdasco V J I Chela F Verdasco to Win @ 1.66 Open
L Hewitt V J Hernych J Hernych to Win @ 3.00 Open
I Karlovic V O Patience O Patience to Win @ 2.25 Open
R Vik V F Serra R Vik to Win @ 2.50 Open
A Ivanovic V S Stosur S Stosur to Win @ 3.50 Open
A P Santonja V M Santangelo M Santangelo to Win @ 1.22 Open
A Rodionova V V Dushevina V DUSHEVINA to Win @ 1.22 Open
F Pennetta V B Mattek F Pennetta to Win @ 1.08 Open
J Craybas V A Yakimova J Craybas to Win @ 2.00 Open
L Pous Tio V J Jankovic L POUS TIO to Win @ 3.00 Open
P Schnyder V M Krajicek P Schnyder to Win @ 1.25 Open
S Arvidsson V M Vento - Kabchi S Arvidsson to Win @ 1.36 Open
V Kutuzova V V King V KUTUZOVA to Win @ 1.66 Open
Z Yan V J Jackson J Jackson to Win @ 2.10 Open
N Vierin V M Muller M Muller to Win @ 1.33 Open
A Cornet V V Ruano Pascual A CORNET to Win @ 3.00 Open
H Sromova V R Vinci R Vinci to Win @ 1.53 Open
M E Camerin V E Gagliardi E Gagliardi to Win @ 2.50 Open
M Llodra V R Stepanek R Stepanek to Win @ 1.11 Open
K Srebotnik V A Smashnova A Smashnova to Win @ 2.00 Open
M A Sanchez Lorenzo V T Pironkova T PIRONKOVA to Win @ 1.83 Open
M Ancic V N Healey M Ancic to Win @ 1.06 Open
C Berlocq V I Ljubicic I Ljubicic to Win @ 1.14 Open
T Sun V E Bytchkova T T Sun to Win @ 2.50 Open
K Kanepi V K Peschke K KANEPI to Win @ 2.10 Open
V Spadea V N Davydenko N Davydenko to Win @ 1.07 Open
C Castano V A Nakamura C Castano to Win @ 1.28 Open
D Hantuchova V L Dominguez Lino L DOMINGUEZ LINO to Win @ 2.75 Open
K Brandi V Y Fedak Y FEDAK to Win @ 1.53 Open
K Koukalova V T Garbin T Garbin to Win @ 2.50 Open
S Peng V E Vesnina S Peng to Win @ 1.53 Open

lol.

Ays25
05-27-2006, 11:42 PM
T Zib V T Robredo T Robredo to Win @ 1.05 Open
K Carlsen V T Henman T Henman to Win @ 1.12 Open
D Nalbandian V S Wawrinka S Wawrinka to Win @ 5.00 Open
X Malisse V N Massu X Malisse to Win @ 3.00 Open
T Berdych V F Lopez T Berdych to Win @ 1.30 Open
J Melzer V N Kiefer N Kiefer to Win @ 1.50 Open
L Dlouhy V K Vliegen K Vliegen to Win @ 1.25 Open
R Gasquet V Y T Wang R Gasquet to Win @ 1.16 Open
S Grosjean V A Pavel S Grosjean to Win @ 1.33 Open
R Sluiter V J Nieminen J NIEMINEN to Win @ 1.12 Open
O Marach V P Kohlschreiber P Kohlschreiber to Win @ 1.66 Open
J C Faurel V O Rochus O Rochus to Win @ 1.11 Open
J Tipsarevic V J Benneteau J Bennetteau to Win @ 2.05 Open
D Ferrer V G Garcia Lopez D Ferrer to Win @ 1.16 Open
F Verdasco V J I Chela F Verdasco to Win @ 1.66 Open
L Hewitt V J Hernych J Hernych to Win @ 3.00 Open
I Karlovic V O Patience O Patience to Win @ 2.25 Open
R Vik V F Serra R Vik to Win @ 2.50 Open
A Ivanovic V S Stosur S Stosur to Win @ 3.50 Open
A P Santonja V M Santangelo M Santangelo to Win @ 1.22 Open
A Rodionova V V Dushevina V DUSHEVINA to Win @ 1.22 Open
F Pennetta V B Mattek F Pennetta to Win @ 1.08 Open
J Craybas V A Yakimova J Craybas to Win @ 2.00 Open
L Pous Tio V J Jankovic L POUS TIO to Win @ 3.00 Open
P Schnyder V M Krajicek P Schnyder to Win @ 1.25 Open
S Arvidsson V M Vento - Kabchi S Arvidsson to Win @ 1.36 Open
V Kutuzova V V King V KUTUZOVA to Win @ 1.66 Open
Z Yan V J Jackson J Jackson to Win @ 2.10 Open
N Vierin V M Muller M Muller to Win @ 1.33 Open
A Cornet V V Ruano Pascual A CORNET to Win @ 3.00 Open
H Sromova V R Vinci R Vinci to Win @ 1.53 Open
M E Camerin V E Gagliardi E Gagliardi to Win @ 2.50 Open
M Llodra V R Stepanek R Stepanek to Win @ 1.11 Open
K Srebotnik V A Smashnova A Smashnova to Win @ 2.00 Open
M A Sanchez Lorenzo V T Pironkova T PIRONKOVA to Win @ 1.83 Open
M Ancic V N Healey M Ancic to Win @ 1.06 Open
C Berlocq V I Ljubicic I Ljubicic to Win @ 1.14 Open
T Sun V E Bytchkova T T Sun to Win @ 2.50 Open
K Kanepi V K Peschke K KANEPI to Win @ 2.10 Open
V Spadea V N Davydenko N Davydenko to Win @ 1.07 Open
C Castano V A Nakamura C Castano to Win @ 1.28 Open
D Hantuchova V L Dominguez Lino L DOMINGUEZ LINO to Win @ 2.75 Open
K Brandi V Y Fedak Y FEDAK to Win @ 1.53 Open
K Koukalova V T Garbin T Garbin to Win @ 2.50 Open
S Peng V E Vesnina S Peng to Win @ 1.53 Open

lol.

loll
1 pound to win 1 000 000 ??

i2ooney
05-28-2006, 12:07 AM
lol, max payout is 100k p/d so it's only a penny stake!

That bet was just to help me start thinking more clearly. I have about 10 bets on, here's my last bet, a slightly more realistic attempt :)

T Zib V T Robredo T Robredo to Win @ 1.05 Open
T Berdych V F Lopez T Berdych to Win @ 1.30 Open
M Ancic V N Healey M Ancic to Win @ 1.06 Open
L Dlouhy V K Vliegen K Vliegen to Win @ 1.25 Open
R Gasquet V Y T Wang R Gasquet to Win @ 1.16 Open
S Grosjean V A Pavel S Grosjean to Win @ 1.33 Open
J C Faurel V O Rochus O Rochus to Win @ 1.11 Open
C Berlocq V I Ljubicic I Ljubicic to Win @ 1.14 Open
L Hewitt V J Hernych J Hernych to Win @ 3.00 Open
I Karlovic V O Patience O Patience to Win @ 2.25 Open
A Ivanovic V S Stosur S Stosur to Win @ 3.50 Open
A P Santonja V M Santangelo M Santangelo to Win @ 1.22 Open
F Pennetta V B Mattek F Pennetta to Win @ 1.08 Open
N Vierin V M Muller M Muller to Win @ 1.33 Open
S Peng V E Vesnina S Peng to Win @ 1.53 Open

£4 to make £800ish

dbnumberone
05-28-2006, 12:45 AM
I accept the fact that it will probably be a Federer-Nadal final, but I've taken two small outright plays on Davydenko @ 41 and Robredo @ 51. A lot of value in these odds, Davydenko probably the greater chance, made the semi's last year, and looking at his draw won't have to play Federer until the semi.

I just took a shot on those to as well for 2 units each, got Davy 50-1, Robredo 66-1...
gl to us!

Anders
05-28-2006, 04:20 AM
YTD: 134-160 +44.55 units

French Open

Outrights:

Ferrer +7000 (1)
Robredo +6600 (1)

Rd 1

Wawrinka +445 o Nalbandian (1)

GL

A_Skywalker
05-28-2006, 09:56 AM
I just put 30 $ on nadal to be RG champion with a coefficient 1.70 :)

fisherking
05-28-2006, 02:27 PM
1 bet for me today:
Parmentier to bt Benesova #3.00

still considering:
Chuco not to win 3-0 against Santoro

gl

dbnumberone
05-28-2006, 02:53 PM
A French Open thought:
I think tomorrow's thread should be titled "French Open Monday" so there aren't 2 threads