Hamburg Masters Outright [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Hamburg Masters Outright

bad gambler
05-14-2006, 09:21 AM
I'm of the belief that given both Nadal and Federer will have played back to back clay Masters finals, both will not be playing in Hamburg. I realise that Federer is the defending champion, but his appearances in both the Monte Carlo and Rome final, regardless of whether he loses the final today will have made up for the points he would lose should he pull out, and Nadal having not played last year obviously would not be disadvantaged. Another interesting point is that Almagro, who I would consider as the 3rd best dirtballer in the world on form at the moment, has decided not to play either.

Because of the gulf in the quality of dirtballers between Nadal & Federer to the rest of the field, it gives you the chance to exploit the large prices for players listed 3rd favourite and beyond.

So going to try the following, betting "1 unit" on the following:



Player Odds
Gasquet $26.00
Gaudio $26.00
Gonzalez $26.00
Ljubicic $26.00
Ferrer $34.00
Safin $41.00
Robredo $41.00
Acasuso $51.00
Davydenko $51.00
Ferrero $51.00
Monfils $51.00
Berdych $81.00



So the outlay here is 12 units, I'm getting on this now before the Rome final as afterwards should the announcement be made that both Federer and Nadal don't decide to play, clearly the value from the above strategy is gone.

And should either or both decide to play, obviously the chances of any of the above listed players reduce dramatically but would still feel it was worth a shot and will accept the loss.

good luck

TwistyServe
05-14-2006, 10:01 AM
Save yourself a 4 units.. don't bet on:

Monfils
Safin
Ferrero
Berdych

:angel:

bad gambler
05-14-2006, 10:27 AM
Uhmmm, Monfils would more than likely have been playing in the final in Rome if there was no Rafa or Federer this tournament, kind of the purpose of this thread....

stinker
05-14-2006, 11:29 AM
Who is offering these odds?

bad gambler
05-14-2006, 11:50 AM
Who is offering these odds?


centrebet

Biff
05-14-2006, 11:55 AM
Hi Bad Gambler,

May I ask you some questions?

How did you find the centrebet odds?

Are they posted on a bet comparison service?

Are centrebet usually first up with tennis odds?

Thanks,

Biff

andrew057
05-14-2006, 09:03 PM
A 5 set marathon last night is all good for you BG. GL

Anders
05-14-2006, 11:10 PM
interesting idea bg, GL with it...

happy928
05-14-2006, 11:34 PM
FEDERER is playing at hamburg and he'll be defending his Clay Title.

bad gambler
05-15-2006, 01:18 PM
FEDERER is playing at hamburg and he'll be defending his Clay Title.


Well you clearly are not the manager of Federer

Both have officially withdrawn, booyah!

bad gambler
05-15-2006, 01:29 PM
Now lets us pray some 100/1 shot doesn't come in and steal this title :help:

shotgun
05-15-2006, 01:43 PM
Now lets us pray some 100/1 shot doesn't come in and steal this title :help:

Yeah, remember what happened in the last TMS without both Federer and Nadal.

bad gambler
05-15-2006, 01:51 PM
Yeah, remember what happened in the last TMS without both Federer and Nadal.


yer, i took that into account - but now having a second look at the draw there are a couple of names in hindsight I probably should have included in the above list who were both paying >$100........

DeccyB123
05-15-2006, 01:54 PM
Was Nieminen one? I really think he's got a good chance here, he's in some good form, and this is a big opportunity without Federer and Nadal.

bad gambler
05-15-2006, 02:44 PM
Was Nieminen one? I really think he's got a good chance here, he's in some good form, and this is a big opportunity without Federer and Nadal.


He was $41, because I was in a rush as i figured CB would pull down the mkt soon I kind of missed him

I also don't think he has the clay pedigree as yet to win a Masters tournament, famous last words :tape:

Anders
05-15-2006, 07:38 PM
good call bg, should have some real leverage late in the tourney, GL mate

bad gambler
05-16-2006, 01:13 AM
Not the best of starts, 3 players roll over already

bad gambler
05-18-2006, 09:19 PM
It comes down to the Acasuso-Verdasco QF now IMO, if Chucho can do me a favour and take him out the above bet is as good as won

BTW I was only allowed to put 1/2 unit on chucho, not 1 :(

Freeze17171
05-18-2006, 11:57 PM
Not if the unstoppable Max Mirnyi foils your master plan!

sports freak
05-19-2006, 06:20 AM
It comes down to the Acasuso-Verdasco QF now IMO, if Chucho can do me a favour and take him out the above bet is as good as won

BTW I was only allowed to put 1/2 unit on chucho, not 1 :(

Absolutely agree champ,feel the winner out of this contest is most likely the cup holder imo aswell!!!

alansk
05-19-2006, 02:18 PM
This was an inspired gamble BG. Good luck! (though I don't think you need it) Can't see Steppa or Ancic getting to the final.

gamma11
05-20-2006, 01:24 PM
Player Odds
Gasquet $26.00
Gaudio $26.00
Gonzalez $26.00
Ljubicic $26.00
Ferrer $34.00
Safin $41.00
Robredo $41.00
Acasuso $51.00
Davydenko $51.00
Ferrero $51.00
Monfils $51.00
Berdych $81.00



So the outlay here is 12 units

Looks like you'll be getting 29 points profit from this strategy-very good.

:wavey:

P.S. Hopefully Stepanek will not spoil it.

Horatio Caine
05-20-2006, 01:30 PM
Can't see Steppa or Ancic getting to the final.

*gulp*

gamma11
05-20-2006, 04:44 PM
[QUOTE=Jez]*

C'mon Jez-what happened to your predictions and analysis in 777?

:wavey:

gamma11
05-20-2006, 04:47 PM
Looks like you'll be getting 29 points profit from this strategy-very good.

:wavey:

P.S. Hopefully Stepanek will not spoil it.

Although I would probably secure my 12 points first. It is better to be safe than sorry :)

:wavey:

Horatio Caine
05-20-2006, 05:58 PM
[QUOTE=Jez]*

C'mon Jez-what happened to your predictions and analysis in 777?

:wavey:

I've been extremely busy lately mate, and with the summer hols coming up...

bad gambler
05-20-2006, 10:30 PM
I'll be hedging for sure, no way I will let this ride and have stepanek screw me over

bad gambler
05-20-2006, 10:41 PM
Stepanek (+5) over Robredo - $1.90 (13 units)

Freeze17171
05-21-2006, 12:08 AM
Well you got one in the finals and he is the favorite so that is good enough, nice strategy bg. Here's hoping for a 7-6 7-6 7-6 Robredo victory.

jayrhum
05-21-2006, 12:57 AM
What if Stepanek wins 7-6 0-6 7-6 0-6 7-6? :tape:

Ok just kidding :)

Well done :hatoff:

happy928
05-21-2006, 06:11 AM
What if Stepanek wins 7-6 0-6 7-6 0-6 7-6? :tape:

Ok just kidding :)

Well done :hatoff:

:haha:

Personally, you should let this ride, but hedging is one way to make moola, i suppose. :p