Warrior Wednesday [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Warrior Wednesday

Horatio Caine
05-09-2006, 05:12 PM
Not all the R1 matches have been completed and half of the lines are yet to come out but....

Gonzo over Youzhny @ 1.33 - a VERY solid base for a double or just taken as a single given these weird run of results...

Jaap
05-09-2006, 05:36 PM
Monfils over Ginepri is £1.5. :eek:

TwistyServe
05-09-2006, 06:03 PM
Monfils over Ginepri is £1.5. :eek:

I'm on that big time. Even monfils cant crap out of this win.

Freeze17171
05-09-2006, 06:15 PM
Gonzo should finish the job that Seppi failed miserably in.

Also, Chucho is playing well but I'm not ready to jump off the Almagro train yet.

Jaap
05-09-2006, 06:18 PM
Henman over Johansson I may take depending on odds.

Other leans include Niemenen over pretty boy and Galvani over Greg.

Jaap
05-09-2006, 06:22 PM
Just took Monfils @ 1.5 before the odds drop as I suspect they will.

Horatio Caine
05-09-2006, 06:33 PM
Really not sure about Monfils guys...

Jaap
05-09-2006, 06:45 PM
Really not sure about Monfils guys...
Surely Ginepri can't win two straight matches on red clay? :shrug:

Ginepri had the easiest possible first round match against the out of form Mirnyi. Monfils on the otherhand overcome a tough match against Haas and from what I've seen in the clay court season has looked in good touch but has unable to close out matches.....which worries me somewhat.

Still, 1.5 is good value IMO.

Freeze17171
05-09-2006, 06:46 PM
Really not sure about Monfils guys...

Sure and Monfils do not go together.

TwistyServe
05-09-2006, 08:18 PM
Monfils over Ginepri @1.49


Going with the better player on clay.. hell monfils could probably beat Ginepri on american HC right now anyway

2-4WTD

Horatio Caine
05-09-2006, 08:43 PM
Anyone up for a bit of Shark tomorrow? :lick:

Nimrodg
05-09-2006, 09:05 PM
Well, the ATP is kind of twisted in this tournament... Might go only for gonzo and add Kaia Kanepi with him to parlay

1.65-1.70 for Kanepi over Foretz as Kanepi is in pretty good form, she won in the 1st round against Bartoli and last week she defeated Foretz in Estoril 6-4 6-1
Liking Peer odds also

Grinder
05-09-2006, 09:19 PM
Week to date:
Record: 3-5
Staked: $3050
Returned: $3506
Profit: $456

Rusedski over Galvani @ +106 - $100 to win $106
Stepanek over Nieminen @ +152 - $400 to win $608
Roddick over Baghadatis @ +100 - $800 to win $800
Roddick 2-0 over Baghdatis @ +190 - $300 to win $570
Roddick 2-0 x Kiefer 2-0 @ +880 - $200 to win 1760

jayrhum
05-09-2006, 09:21 PM
I'm with you on Monfils...

He managed to go through Haas with serving only 45% of first serves... Considering that this shot is one of his best of his arsenal, that's not a bad performance...
On the other hand, please someone tells me when was the last time Ginepri won two matches in a row during an ATP event on clay...

OK so Monfils over Ginepri @ 1.44


I like Hrbaty over Santoro too...

What I like about Hrbaty the ironman is that he's ready as always to play long rallyes and therefore won't be scared by the tricks of the french wizard...
Santoro's game isn't as effective on clay than on hardcourts and if Monaco was able to focus a bit he would have already done the job... Let's hope Hrbaty plays with application and he should win his ticket for another round...

Hrbaty @ 1.57

My humble thoughts... :)

Monfils x Hrbaty @ 2.27 (Stan James)

Dollars & Cents
05-09-2006, 09:39 PM
Monfils(1.50) x Gonzalez(1.33) @ 2.00
Baghdatis to beat Roddick @ 2.10

Good luck.

TwistyServe
05-09-2006, 10:19 PM
Monfils is the play of the day imo.. similar to Roddick over Hanescu was the play of the day on Tuesday :0. Gonna pound it just as hard as I pounded Roddick today.

Maybe this statement will bite me tomorrow :)

elroyf
05-09-2006, 11:00 PM
Monfils x Gonzalez looks good to me. Can't see Gonzo losing at all. Monfils should hold through.

Nalbandian is 1.4 at Betfair. Fill yer boots! He is a class above Matheiu and the odds are knee jerk reactions today's results.

Leans on Greg, ARod and Henman. Timmy a great pick I think.

Anders
05-10-2006, 02:42 AM
WTD: 2-6 -3.95 units

Roma

Berdych -114 o Malisse (1)
Stepanek +161 o Nieminen (1)
Verdasco +170 o Davydenko (1)

Parlay:
Gonzo/Hrbaty +110 (1)
Gonzo/Almagro +128 (1)

Mr Flamboyant
05-10-2006, 02:53 AM
Any thoughts on the Almagro v Acasuso matchup ..? I love the way Almagro is playing at the moment .. Acasuso was obviously pretty impressive in round one here ..

andrew057
05-10-2006, 05:02 AM
Almargo is the man on clay at the moment (aside from Raf and Rog) he should beat Acasuso pretty easily today.

Mr Flamboyant
05-10-2006, 05:13 AM
Yeah I can't see any reason NOT to back Almagro .. his head to head with Acasuso is split at 2-2 .. but Almagro's won both their most recent matches .. and in straight sets.

Mr Flamboyant
05-10-2006, 05:19 AM
I think the moral to the story as far as betting in this tournament goes, is tread with extreme caution. And there's few you'd feel safer backing at the moment than Almagro.

andrew057
05-10-2006, 05:44 AM
Wondering everyones opinions on these two matchups

Ancic vs. Serra - Im leaning towards Serra

Martin vs. Kiefer

andrew057
05-10-2006, 05:45 AM
I think the moral to the story as far as betting in this tournament goes, is tread with extreme caution. And there's few you'd feel safer backing at the moment than Almagro.

Yeah agree with you there. Ive taken Almargo @ $1.633, I expect his odds to be closer to $1.50 come game time.

sports freak
05-10-2006, 05:48 AM
A couple of beauties on the cards 2day to make up for yesterdays blunder!!Going with the big gun Brit n his neighbour from Belgian,X-man Malisse over their opponents!!!Both players have the weapons n game atm to take out the wins imo!!!

40 units on Davide Nalbandian 1.40/Nico Almagro 1.60 @ 2.24 over PHM/Joe Acasuso- Different kettle of fish this time for PHM n Acasuso,can see both players going down comfortable imho!!!

30 units on Greg Rusedski 1.95 over S.Galvani - Greg is switched on atm!!!

30 units on X-man Malisse 2.05 over Thomas Berdych - X-man has the better game imo!!!

Good luck- Like A-Rod 1.95 2nite aswell also other leans Martin 1.85/Ancic 1.90/RRH 3.35/(Jarkko 1.50/Gonzo 1.28 @ 1.92)!!!

snutter99
05-10-2006, 07:12 AM
Baggy -110 o Andy
X-Man +110 o Berdy
Kiwi +100 o Berto
Rusedski +100 o Galvani

b_boy
05-10-2006, 07:20 AM
GALVANI, Stefano (ITA) @ 1.81

MARTIN, Alberto (ESP) @ 1.81

ALMAGRO, Nicolas (ESP) @ 1.62

gl

Mr Flamboyant
05-10-2006, 07:45 AM
Ok .. there's definitely safer bets on offer today, but does anyone else here think Verdasco is way over the odds at $2.65 against Davydenko ..?

bad gambler
05-10-2006, 07:50 AM
Not sure if I will be at home to post, but got the following timed permutations...

Santoro to beat Hrbaty - $2.40

IF Santoro wins the first set, loading up on the folowing parlay as well:

Gonzo/Monfils - $1.98

If santoro loses:

Adding:

Ancic to beat Serra - $2.00

If my timing is right, these combos should work.....*hoping the posted OOP in the score thread is correct*

good luck

Mr Flamboyant
05-10-2006, 08:08 AM
Gonna stick with two clay court specialists .. Almagro X Gonzalez .. $1.90

g35-great
05-10-2006, 08:23 AM
Fernando Gonzalez + Nalabandian + Federer + Nadal @ 1.90

Yoel and co.
05-10-2006, 08:29 AM
Safina @ 1.28

ALG @ 1.33

Kanepi @ 1.53 (thanks Nimrod :) )

Monfils @ 1.50

Hope this works out...Ollie really let me down yesterday :mad:

Horatio Caine
05-10-2006, 08:48 AM
I'm treading with caution today as there most the matches carry a large risk...

Gonzalez x Nadal @ 1.38 - medium stake

Thoughts on today's matches: http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/showthread.php?p=24005#post24005

Good luck! :yeah:

Mr Flamboyant
05-10-2006, 08:59 AM
Jez .. can't open the link to your previews for some reason .. what are your thoughts on the Almagro - Acasuso matchup ..?

DeccyB123
05-10-2006, 09:01 AM
Today:

Verdasco @ 2.50
Nieminen @ 1.53 x Almagro @ 1.61 = 2.46

GL! :yeah:

Horatio Caine
05-10-2006, 09:30 AM
Jez .. can't open the link to your previews for some reason .. what are your thoughts on the Almagro - Acasuso matchup ..?

Personally I'd stay away from that match. Both players play a similar game from what I've seen of them and it just depends who executes it better on the day. Almagro is the favourite, but I'd only say 60%.

Dollars & Cents
05-10-2006, 10:07 AM
I'm treading with caution today as there most the matches carry a large risk...

Gonzalez x Nadal @ 1.38 - medium stake

Thoughts on today's matches: http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/showthread.php?p=24005#post24005

Good luck! :yeah:

Treading carefully? Perhaps too much mate. I don't understand a double such as that in fact adding Nadal at whatever odds they are must be almost pointless. Gonzalez alone was @ 1.33 yesterday which I still wouldn't take as a single. Ok - you may not lose today but at those odds you have to win 72% (1/1.38*100) just to break-even. You may not be playing those odds time and time again but still if you did I doubt in a sport such as tennis you'd even wn 60% of the time.

Surely there are better options today? If not then I'd probably not bet for the day as what you're doing is MUCH riskier.

inmeclf
05-10-2006, 10:35 AM
Treading carefully? Perhaps too much mate. I don't understand a double such as that in fact adding Nadal at whatever odds they are must be almost pointless. Gonzalez alone was @ 1.33 yesterday which I still wouldn't take as a single. Ok - you may not lose today but at those odds you have to win 72% (1/1.38*100) just to break-even. You may not be playing those odds time and time again but still if you did I doubt in a sport such as tennis you'd even wn 60% of the time.

Surely there are better options today? If not then I'd probably not bet for the day as what you're doing is MUCH riskier.


This is a great post IMO

Doctor Dance
05-10-2006, 10:45 AM
I agree excellent post and some very wise points Dollars & Cents

George_Hanson
05-10-2006, 11:00 AM
I agree excellent post and some very wise points Dollars & Cents

Actually, the post was good, but not completely right. I agree with D&C in general, but truly speaking all profitable betting should come from value and value is your personal estimation about the probabilities of a certain game. If Jez sees value in 1.38 - he should bet on it. It's true that he has to hit 70% just to break even with such odds, but if Jez's estimations are right and there really is a value in those odds, then Jez is expecting to win more than 70% with his bets with such odds.

Value can be in 1.05 or in 12.50, it's all personal estimation, but in general higher odds have more value than lower ones. But it's not impossible to hit 70% with 1,35, although not likely.

Horatio Caine
05-10-2006, 11:11 AM
Actually, the post was good, but not completely right. I agree with D&C in general, but truly speaking all profitable betting should come from value and value is your personal estimation about the probabilities of a certain game. If Jez sees value in 1.38 - he should bet on it. It's true that he has to hit 70% just to break even with such odds, but if Jez's estimations are right and there really is a value in those odds, then Jez is expecting to win more than 70% with his bets with such odds.

Value can be in 1.05 or in 12.50, it's all personal estimation, but in general higher odds have more value than lower ones. But it's not impossible to hit 70% with 1,35, although not likely.

I think both of you guys are right on this one, to a certain extent either way ;)

I don't often hit bets like that - I usually target 1.70 upwards if I can get it. I desperately wanted to get Gonzo and Nadal is not going to lose to Volandri in a month of Sundays so....in theory it is a win. I figured it is better to win @ 1.38 than to lose @ 2.00 if Monfils doesn't show up or Hrbaty's ball toss is blown away on a blustery day in Rome.

TwistyServe
05-10-2006, 11:26 AM
Add:

Baggy over Roddick @2.1

People seem to have hammered Roddick pretty hard because he was the dog last time I checked... Hence, always a good sign for a fade. I did get a chance to watch him play against Hanescu and it was a case where Hanescu was an idiot.. going DTL backhands and just spraying balls everywhere. Don't really credit Roddick destroying Hanescu with his skills. Liked what baggy has to show so far on clay so I'll take a bite at this one. Wish I could find out if Monfils wins or loses before I take this bet but they play at same time, oh well.

TwistyServe
05-10-2006, 11:28 AM
If Monfils wins, I'm taking a bite at Volandri over Nadal @11.5.

I'll explain why if Monfils wins :)

Dollars & Cents
05-10-2006, 11:43 AM
Actually, the post was good, but not completely right. I agree with D&C in general, but truly speaking all profitable betting should come from value and value is your personal estimation about the probabilities of a certain game. If Jez sees value in 1.38 - he should bet on it. It's true that he has to hit 70% just to break even with such odds, but if Jez's estimations are right and there really is a value in those odds, then Jez is expecting to win more than 70% with his bets with such odds.

Value can be in 1.05 or in 12.50, it's all personal estimation, but in general higher odds have more value than lower ones. But it's not impossible to hit 70% with 1,35, although not likely.

I agree about taking bets based on value as this is the only way of being profitable in the long-run. But as a rule of thumb I am guided by prices in terms of percentages for tennis. We can all look at a price and think it is larger or shorter than it should be - but the point you make of analysing a bet at higher than 38% chance is a tough one is tennis. In other sports such as football (soccer) we have home-away and recent form which can even be used to gain numerical guides. In tennis as Jez said himself there can be a windy day which is enough to put some players off. It's that point that makes tennis a very unpredictable sport in the individual aspect of the game; if the player's having a bad day or decides to play on with injury you have little chance. In team sports there are many different ways for the outcomes to emerge and you are less reliant on a single attribute. For that reason I find it hard to find value at such low odds.

Jez on the double I also took Gonzalez along with Monfils. We are both dependent on Gonzalez and as you said Monfils is risky. True Nadal is unlikely to lose however statistically it is more foolish.

With tennis mathematically speaking only has a 50% chance of winning with two possible outcomes from a match.

Single: Outcomes = 2^1=2, Probability = 1/2*100 = 50%
Double: Outcomes = 2^2=4, Probability = 1/4*100 = 25%

Ok, now as you put it Nadal won't lose in a month of Sunday's to Volandri. But in theory your double (as we both share Gonzalez) has only the same winning permutation; 1 from 4. Yours may be more certain but pays at only 38% profit whereas with Monfils it pays at 100% profit.

I'd take the riskier option everytime as in the long-run you will be ahead as you only need to win overall over 50% of the time to be ahead.

Anyway good luck mate - let's get back to tennis picks in this thread.

betowiec
05-10-2006, 12:29 PM
Gonzo, verdasco, arod and timmy in a parlay at 8.55 for $50

woke up this morning and placed a wager on Baggy (instead of Arod, cuz now baggy is the underdog, last night arod was)

unfortunately i couldn't cancel my baggy bet ($650) so placed another one (this time on Arod) for 900$ @ 1.91

elroyf
05-10-2006, 12:45 PM
Any opinions on Henman-Johansson

Henman beat him in Rotterdam when ToJo got his injury.

Henman looked impressive against di Mauro. ToJo struggled a bit against Fognini.

But served really well.

Think I am gonna go for Henman.

bad gambler
05-10-2006, 01:14 PM
Not sure if I will be at home to post, but got the following timed permutations...

Santoro to beat Hrbaty - $2.40

IF Santoro wins the first set, loading up on the folowing parlay as well:

Gonzo/Monfils - $1.98

If santoro loses:

Adding:

Ancic to beat Serra - $2.00

If my timing is right, these combos should work.....*hoping the posted OOP in the score thread is correct*

good luck


Decided to pull the trigger on the Karate Kid as well

gl

b_boy
05-10-2006, 01:16 PM
adding:

NIEMINEN, Jarkko (FIN) @ 1.53

VERDASCO, Fernando (ESP) @ 2.35

ONDRASKOVA, Zuzana (CZE) @ 2.30

gl

TwistyServe
05-10-2006, 01:30 PM
woke up this morning and placed a wager on Baggy (instead of Arod, cuz now baggy is the underdog, last night arod was)

unfortunately i couldn't cancel my baggy bet ($650) so placed another one (this time on Arod) for 900$ @ 1.91


Why flip?

Sheva
05-10-2006, 01:43 PM
Three parlays and a single for me today:

A. Martin x Gonzalez
Galvani x Malisse
Malisse x Monfils
Ramirez Hidalgo

Doesn't look to good for me today..Malisse a break behind and Galvani allready lost...Took Ramirez Hidalgo @ 4.00 which i think is worth taking the risk...I know Coria just sucks this season and anyone can beat him right now...But Marat hasn't shown real consistence yet and had trouble in the first round beating Gabashvili...

TwistyServe
05-10-2006, 03:09 PM
Cant believe Baggy let it slip. He was just playing so loose in the 2nd and 3rd set with so many chances to win it.

But at least my heavy wager on Monfils comes through. Got scared there after the 2nd set.. dunno how you let Ginepri take a set.

3-5 WTD

TwistyServe
05-10-2006, 03:16 PM
If Monfils wins, I'm taking a bite at Volandri over Nadal @11.5.

I'll explain why if Monfils wins :)

Gonna skip on this. Monfils wins but Baggy loses keeps me a little green today, can't risk going red on a longshot.

Freeze17171
05-10-2006, 03:39 PM
Just curious, what's your reasoning behind you possibly taking a shot on Volandri?

TwistyServe
05-10-2006, 03:49 PM
Just curious, what's your reasoning behind you possibly taking a shot on Volandri?

Playing Nadal is about groundstrokes and not really serves. Nadal is easily broken, and really has been broken by just about everyone he's beaten. (Vliegen, Nieminin, Almagro, PHM, Moya, Coria, Gaudio, etc). IMO, Nadal has the same success rate of breaking other players whether they have a gimpy serve like Volandri, or if they have a strong serve like Ljub because Nadals return just gets the point started.

Groundstroke wise I think Volandri is very solid, and if he has a great day I think he can upset Nadal. He's also 2-0 h2h granted that was a long time ago, and streaks are meant to be broken.. Nadal's gonna lose to someone very unexpectedly on clay!!!!

betowiec
05-10-2006, 04:08 PM
Why flip?
baggy's bet was placed by mistake (yesterday he was the fav, and i wanted to bet on arod as a dog, this morning the odds have reversed, and not realizin that i put my $ on the dog, and it happpened to be baggy)
I quickly emailed pinnacle (they will cancel a bet once and only once), but since my bet was over $500, the cancellation had to be approved by the manager and obviously that person didn't give the permission to do that.
Once i found that out, decided to put money on Arod, only with a small profit on potential Andy's victory. Basically saying, the line movement scared me a bit, and didnt' want to risk a lot more on Andy

betowiec
05-10-2006, 04:16 PM
Out of the big 2 today, lets go against mighty Rafa

$50 on volandri at 12.25

also adding:

Timmy @ 1.592 for $275

elroyf
05-10-2006, 05:31 PM
Henman at 1.61 Betfair

I think one win is enough for ToJo. He stuggled against Fognini and doesn't like the clay really.

Also, his eye seemed like it was possibly troubling him yesterday and also, may not have the fitness before his injury.

Henman played well against di Mauro. He also beat ToJo just before his injury in Rotterdam this year.

Large stake on Henman for me,

Grinder
05-10-2006, 07:26 PM
Week to date:
Record: 3-5
Staked: $3050
Returned: $3506
Profit: $456

Rusedski over Galvani @ +106 - $100 to win $106
Stepanek over Nieminen @ +152 - $400 to win $608
Roddick over Baghadatis @ +100 - $800 to win $800
Roddick 2-0 over Baghdatis @ +190 - $300 to win $570
Roddick 2-0 x Kiefer 2-0 @ +880 - $200 to win 1760

Week to date:
Record: 6-7
Staked: $5050
Returned: $6520
Profit: $1470

bad gambler
05-10-2006, 07:40 PM
Not sure if I will be at home to post, but got the following timed permutations...

Santoro to beat Hrbaty - $2.40

IF Santoro wins the first set, loading up on the folowing parlay as well:

Gonzo/Monfils - $1.98

If santoro loses:

Adding:

Ancic to beat Serra - $2.00

If my timing is right, these combos should work.....*hoping the posted OOP in the score thread is correct*

good luck



finally :devil:

Sheva
05-10-2006, 08:20 PM
Three parlays and a single for me today:

A. Martin x Gonzalez
Galvani x Malisse
Malisse x Monfils
Ramirez Hidalgo

Doesn't look to good for me today..Malisse a break behind and Galvani allready lost...Took Ramirez Hidalgo @ 4.00 which i think is worth taking the risk...I know Coria just sucks this season and anyone can beat him right now...But Marat hasn't shown real consistence yet and had trouble in the first round beating Gabashvili...

Lost two, won two...Not a bad day due to the fact Ramirez Hidalgo won the two tiebreakers :worship:

betowiec
05-10-2006, 08:30 PM
Out of the big 2 today, lets go against mighty Rafa

$50 on volandri at 12.25

also adding:

Timmy @ 1.592 for $275


timmy wins, volandri loses

Horatio Caine
05-10-2006, 09:08 PM
Gonzalez x Nadal @ 1.38 - medium stake

I'll take it...no matter what any says :lol: ;)

Congrats Monfils backers...I knew there was something about the match I didn't like and I wasn't far wrong.

Good day Grinder, BG and sheva :yeah:

elroyf
05-10-2006, 09:21 PM
Monfils x Gonzalez looks good to me. Can't see Gonzo losing at all. Monfils should hold through.

Nalbandian is 1.4 at Betfair. Fill yer boots! He is a class above Matheiu and the odds are knee jerk reactions today's results.

Leans on Greg, ARod and Henman. Timmy a great pick I think.

Henman at 1.61 Betfair

I think one win is enough for ToJo. He stuggled against Fognini and doesn't like the clay really.

Also, his eye seemed like it was possibly troubling him yesterday and also, may not have the fitness before his injury.

Henman played well against di Mauro. He also beat ToJo just before his injury in Rotterdam this year.

Large stake on Henman for me,


A good day for me and everyone it seems.

Congratulations everyone :worship:

Mr Flamboyant
05-10-2006, 10:44 PM
Gonna stick with two clay court specialists .. Almagro X Gonzalez .. $1.90

Bit of a grind for both but in the end the desired result for all concerned .. I'll take the cash and .. :bolt: !!!

olix
05-11-2006, 07:56 AM
edited