Rome was not built in one day, Monday [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Rome was not built in one day, Monday

TwistyServe
05-06-2006, 04:34 PM
Federer vs Chela

Starace vs Tursunov

Nieminen vs Grosjean

Pretty boy Lopez vs Sexy Stepanek

Ferrer vs Acasuso

Verdasco vs Bolelli

Pashanksi vs Davydenko

PHM vs Ferrero

Bracciali vs Kiefer

Ancic vs Horna

Serra vs Blake

Roddick vs Hanescu

Baghdatis vs Rochus

Rusedski vs Robredo

Ginepri vs Mirnyi

Monfils vs Haas

Hrbaty vs Ljubicic

Gaudio vs Malisse

Srichaphan vs Berdych

Youzhny vs Seppi

Wawarinka vs Gonzo

Henman vs Di Mauro

Murray vs Volandri

Moya vs Nadal

TwistyServe
05-06-2006, 04:35 PM
Some absolutely beauty of matches.. my leans in bold, lets get the discussion going!

Note: some may be tuesday matches.

Horatio Caine
05-06-2006, 04:42 PM
Wow - don't remember the last time I saw a thread 2 days in advance...and before the next day's thread is posted.

I haven't looked at the draw properly so I will quickly comment on your leans if that is okay:

Starace - yes...but odds likely to be low.

Grosjean - not sure but Nieminen might not play anyway.

Stepanek - yes maybe. But Lopez will get a win against Sexy at some point - law of averages. Court plays into both their hands.

Bracciali - injured...not entirely convinced he'd beat a focused Kiefer...if the latter is ever known to turn up anyway :rolleyes:

Serra - no idea. Never seen him play. Blake can be a little bit dangerous for the average clay court players.

Mirnyi - similar match-up so one to stay well clear of. Why can't Ginepri win? :shrug:

Berdych - yes...but low odds expected.

Seppi - most probably

Di Mauro - I think Henman can and will win this one. Admittedly I have never seen Di Mauro play but some of his results against certain styles lead me to believe Henman will at least have a decent chance.

Andre♥
05-06-2006, 04:42 PM
No way Grosjean will beat Nieminen...

I believe Nieminen decided to lose today to get ready for Rome. He is almost in the Top 10 and he is preparing the attack to reach this goal.

The last time we saw Grosjean he lost to Balleret. Injured or not he still lost to Balleret...

EDIT: Looks like Nieminen has the flue. I had it yesterday and I went to the beach this afternoon...

Horatio Caine
05-06-2006, 04:45 PM
Surprised you didn't pick out:

Robredo over Rusedski (although odds around 1.25 probably)

Ljubicic over Hrbaty - never been all that impressed with Hrbaty's clay game whilst Ljubo's game is actually suited to it, believe it or not!

Gonzo over Wawrinka - Wawrinka struggles with power players. If Gonzo is on he will blast the Swiss into next week.

Murray also has a chance against Volandri if he plays as he did against Ferrer. Match-up is quite nice as Volandri won't overpower him.

Freeze17171
05-06-2006, 04:53 PM
Hanescu vs Roddick should be interesting...

Rusedski is fairly helpless on clay, Robredo should roll him and I think the odds will be more in the 1.10-1.20 range.

Liking Ollie over Baggy, Marcos hasn't proven anything on clay and Ollie is the type of player that would cause him to start overhitting the ball.

Murray sounds good as a dog, but his fading in the latter stages of the match trend is worrying. Volandri has been less than impressive as of late though.

TwistyServe
05-06-2006, 05:25 PM
Well didn't pick Robredo cause odds will likely be 1.10-1.20 as Freeze pointed out.. Wasn't Chela a 1.2 favorite over Resedski just recently?

I'd expect starace odds to be at least 1.55!

TwistyServe
05-06-2006, 05:27 PM
Murray sounds good as a dog, but his fading in the latter stages of the match trend is worrying. Volandri has been less than impressive as of late though.

Murray could be a good dog if the odds are right. Both players cant serve worth shit, and I'd expect it be a nice break-fest

Corey Feldman
05-06-2006, 05:39 PM
Surprised you didn't pick out:

Robredo over Rusedski (although odds around 1.25 probably)

i thought that, but Robredo is a bit funny in this event ..
2005 Lost 1st round to Benneteau 1-6 0-6.
2004 Lost 2nd round to Karlovic 6-7 4-6.
2003 Lost 3rd round to Federer 1-6 1-6. (not a surprise but the scoreline is)
2002 Lost QF to Roddick 4-6 6-7.

i like Gaudio over Malisse.
stepanek over F.Lo
Horna over Ancic
berdy over 'mr cant win on clay', srichaphan.
and whichever qualie plays Jiri novak.

Horatio Caine
05-06-2006, 06:19 PM
I'd expect starace odds to be at least 1.55!

Not sure they would be...why do you think that? I'd be more expecting -1.40

coup3z
05-06-2006, 06:24 PM
I see that ToJo is in the draw! is his eye ok ?

Horatio Caine
05-06-2006, 06:27 PM
I see that ToJo is in the draw! is his eye ok ?

Yeah he has returned early! Apparently he has lost 20% vision in that eye but it may return...he is due to get contact lens at some point I think

Nimrodg
05-07-2006, 06:17 PM
CENTRE COURT
13 pm Ivan LJUBICIC (CRO, 3) vs Dominik HRBATY (SVK)
followed by Roger FEDERER (SUI, 1) vs Juan Ignacio CHELA (ARG)
followed by Nicolas KIEFER (GER, 13) vs Daniele BRACCIALI (ITA)
21 pm Potito STARACE (ITA) vs Dmitry TURSUNOV (RUS)
followed by Simone BOLELLI- Andreas SEPPI (ITA) vs Julian KNOWLE (AUT)-Sebastian PRIETO (ARG)

PIETRANGELI STADIUM

13 pm Mikhail YOUZHNY (RUS) c. Andreas SEPPI (ITA)
followed by Florent SERRA (FRA) c. James BLAKE (USA, 7)
followed by Gael MONFILS (FRA) c. Tommy HAAS (GER)
followed by Alberto MARTIN (ESP) c. Davide SANGUINETTI (ITA)

COURT 6
13 pm David FERRER (ESP, 11) c. Josט ACASUSO (ARG)
followed by Nicolas ALMAGRO (ESP) c. Nicolas MASSU (CHI)
followed by Stefano GALVANI (ITA) c. Jiri NOVAK (CZE)

COURT 5
13 pm Stanislav WAWRINKA (SWI) c. Fernando GONZALEZ (CHI, 10)
followed by Robby GINEPRI (USA, 16) c. Max MIRNYI (BLR)
followed by Greg RUSEDSKI (GBR) c. Tommy ROBREDO (ESP, 12)

COURT 4
13 pm Juan MONACO (ARG) c. Fabrice SANTORO (FRA)
followed by Mario ANCIC (CRO) c. Luis HORNA (PER)
followed by Stephen HUSS (AUS)-Cyril SUK (CZE) c. Sebastien GROSJEAN (FRA)-Paradorn SRICHAPHAN (THA)

TBA COURT
not before 17 pm
James BLAKE (USA)-Xavier MALISSE (BEL) c. Robby GINEPRI (USA)-Andy RODDICK (USA)
David FERRER (ESP)-Rafael NADAL (ESP) c. Mariusz FYRSTENBERG (POL)-Marcin MATKOWSKI (POL)


around 1.65-1.70 for Seppi :eek:
Ljubo looks good, so is Horna, Starace, Galvani(1st match of Novak since October), Almagro

Yoel and co.
05-07-2006, 08:54 PM
Starce @ 1.40 is a good one. Any bookie who read Tursunov's blog should give lower odds ;)

Allstar
05-07-2006, 08:58 PM
Roddick
Di Mauro
Seppi
Haas

elroyf
05-07-2006, 09:36 PM
Lot's of options. Just gonna go for a "banker" parlay for starters:

Starace x Ljubucic at about 1.8

olix
05-07-2006, 10:02 PM
Murray also has a chance against Volandri if he plays as he did against Ferrer. Match-up is quite nice as Volandri won't overpower him.

I don't want to be mean, but I remember you saying that 'Murray will be lucky to win 3 matches on clay this year" some time ago. And now I see you saying that he can upset Volandri.. not much sense.

Jaap
05-07-2006, 10:20 PM
Seppi over Youzhny @ 1.73. Seppi should be motivated on home territory and Youzhny stinks on clay and lost his previous two games on clay in straight sets against the hopeless Coria and Melzer.

Also a parlay - Starace x Gonzo x Berdych.

Horatio Caine
05-07-2006, 10:30 PM
I don't want to be mean, but I remember you saying that 'Murray will be lucky to win 3 matches on clay this year" some time ago. And now I see you saying that he can upset Volandri.. not much sense.

:lol: Much depends on the match-up. He has a reasonable chance against players that don't have a powerful game...he will lose 10/10 against the likes of Gonzo, Almagro, Acasuso etc.

Horatio Caine
05-07-2006, 10:30 PM
Yep - Seppi looks almost too good to be true :scared:

Will be back in a bit with some ideas...as elroyf says - plenty of options

Cornincrap
05-07-2006, 10:36 PM
Whos is this Tursonov guy, all I know is that he performed in the davis cup, but has he performed since?

How about Roddick?

I havent been impressed by Hanescu as of late. he's @ 1.53

Jaap
05-07-2006, 10:41 PM
Tursunov is dire on clay. In his last two tournaments he has been knocked out by young home wildcards. Starace is not great but he knows his way around a clay court and he should be too much for poor old Dimi.

What does everyone think about Serra-Blake match? This is Blake's first match on red clay for a while and he hasn't really done well on it before. Serra is very inconsistent but clay is probably his best surface. Serra seems a decent price to me.

How about the Mirnyi-Ginepri match? :lol:

Freeze17171
05-07-2006, 10:42 PM
Turnsunov is a brilliant comedic writer, who happens to play tennis on the side. His feelings on clay are, "Clay is for girls!!!!"

Mirnyi-Ginepri :help:

Horatio Caine
05-07-2006, 10:56 PM
Tursunov is dire on clay. In his last two tournaments he has been knocked out by young home wildcards. Starace is not great but he knows his way around a clay court and he should be too much for poor old Dimi.

What does everyone think about Serra-Blake match? This is Blake's first match on red clay for a while and he hasn't really done well on it before. Serra is very inconsistent but clay is probably his best surface. Serra seems a decent price to me.

How about the Mirnyi-Ginepri match? :lol:

I wouldn't play it...but if I had to I'd go with Blake

betowiec
05-07-2006, 10:58 PM
Turnsunov is a brilliant comedic writer, who happens to play tennis on the side. His feelings on clay are, "Clay is for girls!!!!"

Mirnyi-Ginepri :help:


say what you want, but Dima's blog is the best

Horatio Caine
05-07-2006, 11:35 PM
To be honest, I'm not seeing anything absolutely certain tomorrow.

Tursunov might be able to knock off Starace, Hrbaty could knock off Ljubo...it is not inconceivable that Youzhny will beat Seppi. :shrug:

I have leans...but nothing all that certain.

I think I'll have to :zzz: on it

Anders
05-07-2006, 11:40 PM
YTD: 116-135 +44.64 units

Roma

Ancic +110 o Horna (1.5)
Ginepri +137 o Mirnyi (1.5)

more to come...

Horatio Caine
05-08-2006, 12:17 AM
Okay...no sleep necessary - I've decided!

Seppi x Starace @ 2.32 - small stake

Analysis: http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/showthread.php?p=23788#post23788

Good luck! :yeah:

Just a small one to start the week off with. Both players could feasibly lose - Seppi being more at risk.

The Undertaker
05-08-2006, 12:19 AM
Im gonna take Ginepri tommorow, Mirny was broken couple of times by Karlovic!!! If Ginepri is able to do alright on his serve he should win this match...Dunno why Blake is so underrated againts Serra, who didn`t do anything impressive on clay just yet. Ancic should be Horna through.

elroyf
05-08-2006, 12:26 AM
Gonna take a single on Gonzalez over Wawrinka. I think Gonzo will have too much for Wawa @ 1.52 (Betfair)

Lots of close match-ups.

The clay is pretty slow here I think. So it will favour "regular" claycourters.

Corey Feldman
05-08-2006, 12:51 AM
I like Seppi over Youz..
a better clay courter, better form overall, playing in Italy is another help

shotgun
05-08-2006, 02:00 AM
say what you want, but Dima's blog is the best

Tursunov's only utility during the clay season is to write blogs, it seems. :)

shotgun
05-08-2006, 02:02 AM
Dunno why Blake is so underrated againts Serra, who didn`t do anything impressive on clay just yet.

Serra has a title on clay under his belt, something that Blake hasn't.

bad gambler
05-08-2006, 02:38 AM
Serra has a title on clay under his belt, something that Blake hasn't.


Blake was the hottest claycourter behind Nadal leading into last years French Open.....






















In the challenger circuit....

Anders
05-08-2006, 02:50 AM
YTD: 116-135 +44.64 units

Roma

Played

Ancic +110 o Horna (1.5)
Ginepri +137 o Mirnyi (1.5)

Adding:

Wawrinka +175 o Gonzo (1)

Parlays:

Seppi/Gaudio/Verdasco +140 (1.5)
Coria/Starace -110 (1.5)
Ferrer/Gaudio/verdasco +140 (1.5)

GL all

TwistyServe
05-08-2006, 02:56 AM
In the challenger circuit....

hehe Taking out Vemic and Baker is scary stuff.

g35-great
05-08-2006, 02:59 AM
YTD: 116-135 +44.64 units

Roma


Adding:

Wawrinka +175 o Gonzo (1)

GL all

i hope u win all your bets and just lose this one for my sake :wavey: i suck at tennis please let me win atleast 1 bet :awww:

shotgun
05-08-2006, 03:08 AM
In the challenger circuit....

In the american challenger circuit. :lol:

I wouldn't be surprised if Fish is the one to win back-to-back titles there this year. :p

fisherking
05-08-2006, 03:13 AM
Acasuso over Ferrer @2.25
Serra over Blake @1.87
Wawrinka over Gonzalez @2.75
Seppi over Youzhny @1.625 but it seems that public is on italiano here what scares me a bit

and just for tracking purposes:
Massu over Almagro @2.86
Horna over Ancic @1.833
Monfils over Haaas @2.96
Santoro over Monaco @2.42

prices from pinnacle
gl

bad gambler
05-08-2006, 03:15 AM
In the american challenger circuit. :lol:

I wouldn't be surprised if Fish is the one to win back-to-back titles there this year. :p


still something to tell the grand kids :p

to be honest I don't see him beating Serra giving his preparation or lack thereof - also its been 2 years since he nearly got praralysed here when he ran into the net pole head first I wonder whether psychologicaly he will be ok

bad gambler
05-08-2006, 03:15 AM
Serra to beat Blake - $1.88

will have a couple more adds

gl

AceMaan
05-08-2006, 03:51 AM
Opting for extreme caution as see no clear cut openings.....so doing the following in the first round.............to build up capital for subsequent rounds

Federer x Nadal @1.155

AceMaan
05-08-2006, 03:56 AM
.............also studying Baghdatis vs O.Rochus..............Rochus look to be the player to back after winning the BMW tournament............Baghdatis come out of age and should be no greater at evens to beat his opponent...............at odds of 2.25 he looks fair value.

Mr Flamboyant
05-08-2006, 03:58 AM
Just wondering why nobody's opted for Almagro over Massu .. the youngster's been white hot on this year's clay circut .. although did sit out last week.

TwistyServe
05-08-2006, 04:21 AM
Just wondering why nobody's opted for Almagro over Massu .. the youngster's been white hot on this year's clay circut .. although did sit out last week.

Odds arent looking so great as they openned around 1.48 on pinnacle, but they're at 1.55 right now. If they climb a little more I'm on it.. However massu has proven to be a consistent strong clayer, and Almagro hasn't shown his consistency time in and time out yet.

Freeze17171
05-08-2006, 05:29 AM
Ollie should take out Marcos, he's not a clay courter and the slow pace will hurt his power groundstrokes. Ollie is a crafty and consistent player and Marcos could get frustrated and start going for too much.

As for Almagro, backing him as a dog is great because of his talent. Backing him as heavy chalk is dangerous because of what Twisted has said.

sports freak
05-08-2006, 06:24 AM
Went through 4 pages n cannot believe no one has mentioned Berto which is incredible,the guy will give Old man Sangy a hiding n a half,also agree on Almagro too good of odds to miss out!!!

40 units on Nicolas Almagro 1.48/Alberto Martin 1.54 @ 2.27 over Nico Massu/David Sanguinetti- Nico should clean sweep Massu,while Berto should take care of Sangy in his back yard,too consistent atm!!The Italaion Stallion is joining Ranier Schuettler in retirement im afraid!!

Good luck - Other leans on Santoro 2.20/Seppi!!!!

Mr Flamboyant
05-08-2006, 06:36 AM
Agree Sports Freak .. I understand the point from others here re Almagro at the shortish odds, but the guy is that hot on clay at the moment that there's very few players he'll be an underdog against ..

TwistyServe
05-08-2006, 07:14 AM
Just took

Seppi over Youzny @1.6
Seppi is finding some consistency and Mikhail hasn't played well this year. Giving Andreas a try.

Bracc over Kiefer @2.01
Bracc had some great matches last week and Kiefer is terrible on clay. Giving this a try since the odds look nice.

Will take Fog over Tojo when its avaliable at pinnacle. Price is around 2.2 right now. Fog just beat Djokovic to qualify and Tojo coming back, never been great on clay either.. great value imo.

Mr Flamboyant
05-08-2006, 07:55 AM
Serra looks like decent value against Ice Cube but am steering clear of that one ..

Liking Ljubicic X Almagro .. $1.82 .. Starace's attitude towards playing on clay makes a play on Starace pretty appealing

bad gambler
05-08-2006, 08:06 AM
Serra to beat Blake - $1.88

will have a couple more adds

gl


Adding:

Bracciali to beat Kiefer - $2.00

gl

TwistyServe
05-08-2006, 08:37 AM
Add: Sanguinetti over Martin @2.730

H2h is 2-0 in favor of Sang. Beto has been so so most of this year. Sang hasn't been great too but I like his performance better and dont see why this match wouldn't be a coin flip, hence good value in the bet.

Mr Flamboyant
05-08-2006, 08:56 AM
anyone with thoughts / leans on Haas vs Monfils .. ?

elroyf
05-08-2006, 09:10 AM
anyone with thoughts / leans on Haas vs Monfils .. ?

I reckon Haas will down Monfils no worries.

Freeze17171
05-08-2006, 09:31 AM
Plays

Ferrer (-125) over Acasuso
H2H is 3-1 in favor of Acasuso, but they haven't played in 2 years so I'm not looking into that stat too much. Ferrer is a funny guy, he can seem to not really care in ATP events but he steps up his game in the bigger tournaments, and I'll be damned if he is going to be knocked out in the 1st round of a TMS on clay in Europe. He will come to play in this match and will come to win. He made the quarters and the semis in his last two TMS tourneys (one on clay) losing both times to Federer, which can't really be helped. He made the semis in Rome last year, losing to Nadal 6-4, 4-6, 5-7 and seems to prefer the slower clay surfaces. Acasuso has had some solid results on clay, but I think Ferrer will just grind him down as the match goes on.

Seppi (-168) over Youzhny
See jez's post for a good analysis of the match. Neither have had success at Rome, but Youzhny is a hack who has hit a brick wall losing on every surface (clay isn't his strong surface at all), Seppi is a younger player on the rise whose best surface is clay.

DeccyB123
05-08-2006, 09:32 AM
Getting on:

Acasuso @ 2.2

Also, trying a new thing in this TMS with a parlay:

Bracciali @ 2 x Seppi @ 1.57 = 3.14

GL All! :yeah:

andrew057
05-08-2006, 09:39 AM
Placed these bets earlier in the day in the hope of better odds.

Almargo vs. Massua @ $1.538

Braccialia vs. Kiefer @ $2.06

Serra vs. Blake @ $1.857

Monaco vs. Santoro @ $1.732

vljubej
05-08-2006, 09:58 AM
Turnsunov is a brilliant comedic writer, who happens to play tennis on the side. His feelings on clay are, "Clay is for girls!!!!"

Mirnyi-Ginepri :help: Yeah!

Moreover, I wouldnt be surprised at all if Tursunov has open account at MTF writing posts like "Dmitry sucks big time!"

I really laughed a lot reading his last week's blog :worship:

Sheva
05-08-2006, 10:11 AM
Mirnyi x Serra to beat the Americans who can't compete on the dirt in Europe
Acasuso x Gonzo more of a chance

bad gambler
05-08-2006, 10:12 AM
anyone with thoughts / leans on Haas vs Monfils .. ?


I was very close to taking Monfils, but didn't want to force the issue early in the week.

Mr Flamboyant
05-08-2006, 10:14 AM
Alright .. gonna kick things off conservatively .. Ljubicic X Starace .. $1.75 ..

Horatio Caine
05-08-2006, 10:24 AM
I was very close to taking Monfils, but didn't want to force the issue early in the week.

...and I'd agree with you on Monfils

Horatio Caine
05-08-2006, 10:25 AM
Man I hope Seppi isn't a trainwreck :scared:

AceMaan
05-08-2006, 10:59 AM
Today.............going for another no thinking day again has worked for me for the past fives days.........unlike previous times when i overanalyse and my pick gets maULED.............

Using Ljubicic as a platform for the other four early games.............
1) Ljubicic x Seppi @1.92
2) Ljubicic x Monaco @2.12
3) Ljubicic x Ferrer @2.12
4) Ljubicic x Gonzalez @1.97

........hope my no-brainer style can continue to be fruitful!

g35-great
05-08-2006, 11:00 AM
seppi + federer + sahar peer @ 1.73
ljubicic + serra @ 2.14
starce + haas @ 1.82

everyone is betting conservatively after last weeks disaster :awww: but considering my bank.. i am big on all these three, from experiance i have a feeling that there wont be much disappointments like last week. but i am still learning tennis and i might be wrong :o i took tommy haas thinking he wont lose the first round matches for 2 continuous weeks :awww:

g35-great
05-08-2006, 11:04 AM
and BG are u the reason for me getting serra for 1.66 ??? :smash:

Horatio Caine
05-08-2006, 11:08 AM
Today.............going for another no thinking day again has worked for me for the past fives days.........unlike previous times when i overanalyse and my pick gets maULED.............

Using Ljubicic as a platform for the other four early games.............
1) Ljubicic x Seppi @1.92
2) Ljubicic x Monaco @2.12
3) Ljubicic x Ferrer @2.12
4) Ljubicic x Gonzalez @1.97

........hope my no-brainer style can continue to be fruitful!

Erm...I'll jump onto this before Prabu dumps me in it again :p

If Ljubo loses...:scared: I thought Roddick was a rock against Benneteau and look what happened :rolleyes:

Good luck for your sake!

Hrbaty COULD shock him

Horatio Caine
05-08-2006, 11:10 AM
everyone is betting conservatively after last weeks disaster :awww:

What disaster was that?

AceMaan
05-08-2006, 11:14 AM
Erm...I'll jump onto this before Prabu dumps me in it again :p

If Ljubo loses...:scared: I thought Roddick was a rock against Benneteau and look what happened :rolleyes:

Good luck for your sake!

Hrbaty COULD shock him

thanks for concern buddy.............this style has worked for me for the pass week or so....so sticking to it until my luck runs out...................good luck too your calls as well!

g35-great
05-08-2006, 11:18 AM
What disaster was that?

your picks for last monday :wavey:
A few trends...

Hernych is on a 5-match losing streak against lefties, but it isn't that bad when you consider that he has lost to dangerous opponents on their favourite surfaces. Beck might be worth a shot @ 2.62

Srichaphan is poor on clay but abysmal on German clay. Monaco @ 1.36

Muller has yet to beat a top 100 player in 6 attempts this season...his least advantageous surface also happens to be clay...and Rochus is just the sort of player that he should find too tough to handle. C. Rochus @ 1.50

Dlouhy is winless in 8 matches on the ATP Tour in 2006 - he is 0/5 vs players 51-100. Gimelstob is 0/4 vs vs players 51-100. Huge difference here - Gimelstob is really poor on clay and Dlouhy is quite capable. Dlouhy @ 1.30

I might double a couple of those.

1-3 disaster?

g35-great
05-08-2006, 11:24 AM
Today.............going for another no thinking day again has worked for me for the past fives days.........unlike previous times when i overanalyse and my pick gets maULED.............

Using Ljubicic as a platform for the other four early games.............
1) Ljubicic x Seppi @1.92
2) Ljubicic x Monaco @2.12
3) Ljubicic x Ferrer @2.12
4) Ljubicic x Gonzalez @1.97

........hope my no-brainer style can continue to be fruitful!

whatever u have been smoking... i want some of those http://www.smilies-world.de/smilies/smilies_Picture/rauchen/67.gif

Jaap
05-08-2006, 11:40 AM
Seppi :smash:

Horatio Caine
05-08-2006, 12:15 PM
your picks for last monday :wavey:


1-3 disaster?

I posted trends there - in what way are they plays or even leans? They are merely patterns.

Although that was the only poor day for last week - my actual play was Monaco x Dlouhy. Although it didn't win, going 1-1 is better than 0/2 :shrug:

g35-great
05-08-2006, 12:17 PM
I posted trends there - in what way are they plays or even leans? They are merely patterns.

Although that was the only poor day for last week - my actual play was Monaco x Dlouhy. Although it didn't win, going 1-1 is better than 0/2 :shrug:

no point arguing now... make a pick.. do u want to kill seppi or should i kill him? :mad:

Horatio Caine
05-08-2006, 12:26 PM
no point arguing now... make a pick.. do u want to kill seppi or should i kill him? :mad:

WTF? Everyone else knows what I bet because it is quite clear...not sure why it is a problem for you.

The match isn't over yet so I won't be doing any killing until at least then ;) Besides, there was always an element of risk with this match...that is why I was one of several who went small for today. Starace is also risky imo.

Sheva
05-08-2006, 01:27 PM
Nice win with Acasuso x Gonzo!

George_Hanson
05-08-2006, 02:08 PM
Today.............going for another no thinking day again has worked for me for the past fives days.........unlike previous times when i overanalyse and my pick gets maULED.............

Using Ljubicic as a platform for the other four early games.............
1) Ljubicic x Seppi @1.92
2) Ljubicic x Monaco @2.12
3) Ljubicic x Ferrer @2.12
4) Ljubicic x Gonzalez @1.97

........hope my no-brainer style can continue to be fruitful!

And now take a deep breath and think what went slightly wrong in your combos

Lawrence3175
05-08-2006, 02:13 PM
what do you guys think of Sanguinetti vs Martin today?...thanks in advance

bad gambler
05-08-2006, 02:14 PM
Today.............going for another no thinking day again has worked for me for the past fives days.........unlike previous times when i overanalyse and my pick gets maULED.............

Using Ljubicic as a platform for the other four early games.............
1) Ljubicic x Seppi @1.92
2) Ljubicic x Monaco @2.12
3) Ljubicic x Ferrer @2.12
4) Ljubicic x Gonzalez @1.97

........hope my no-brainer style can continue to be fruitful!

consolation is that your first three plays would have lost anyway regardless of the ljubicic result, but it amazes me you would even lay any money on such a strategy

I don't care if it was Nadal at $1.01 on dirt being in the same parlay for all 4, don't do it - not trying to have a go at you, just trying to help

sports freak
05-08-2006, 02:19 PM
what do you guys think of Sanguinetti vs Martin today?...thanks in advance

Save your money champ,plenty of other dogs 2morro!!!Sangy wont last 3 sets against Berto!!

Lawrence3175
05-08-2006, 02:21 PM
Save your money champ,plenty of other dogs 2morro!!!Sangy wont last 3 sets against Berto!!thanks..I know he's 3-0 h2h, but most of those are old

sports freak
05-08-2006, 02:25 PM
thanks..I know he's 3-0 h2h, but most of those are old

Exactly Berto is on the up slowly while Sangy decreasing perofrmance at the mean time,its abit like Henman but Timmy has more k's on the legs!!!!Maybe Tursunov is abit more of a value over Starce especially if the big Russian gets those weapons going in the right places!!Do what eva u feel id right,good luck!!

Lawrence3175
05-08-2006, 02:36 PM
which is the better dog though: Sanguinetti or Tursunov?

AceMaan
05-08-2006, 02:39 PM
And now take a deep breath and think what went slightly wrong in your combos

nothing really wrong ....just dicing with luck..............taking the favorites...............i was winning with this method the pass four days......................but now on a low.....but still up by 500% from my starting capital.....but feeling really no confidence now.....!...................what do you think my rebound bet should be

AceMaan
05-08-2006, 02:44 PM
consolation is that your first three plays would have lost anyway regardless of the ljubicic result, but it amazes me you would even lay any money on such a strategy

I don't care if it was Nadal at $1.01 on dirt being in the same parlay for all 4, don't do it - not trying to have a go at you, just trying to help

well call it a gambler trying to run his streak.....looks like i hit a road block here.............last four day almost everything i touched turned to gold...........................nope will never do the 1.01.......my basic strategy is to do hinge on somebody very confident in around odds 1.28 to 1.33 x with a slight favorite to pump the odds up to 2.00.............looks like will have to rethink my strategy............

Horatio Caine
05-08-2006, 02:45 PM
what do you think my rebound bet should be

My policy - don't chase losses...especially when today's card was never good anyway. Plenty of tennis left this week and in 2006 ;)

Horatio Caine
05-08-2006, 02:47 PM
my basic strategy is to do hinge on somebody very confident in around odds 1.28 to 1.33 x with a slight favorite to pump the odds up to 2.00.............looks like will have to rethink my strategy............

That is my strategy but it only works if it isnt abused. I look for differences in match-up and statistics...I didn't do either very well today.

AceMaan
05-08-2006, 02:56 PM
My policy - don't chase losses...especially when today's card was never good anyway. Plenty of tennis left this week and in 2006 ;)

thanks.......by the way what do you think of using Starace as a pivot point?..........@1.28 against Tursonov.........i am quite confident but after this now have been thinking for a while now...........thinking of

1) Starace x Heat @1.80
2) Starace x Martin @1.80
3) Starace x Cleveland (MLB) @1.92

sports freak
05-08-2006, 02:56 PM
which is the better dog though: Sanguinetti or Tursunov?

Tusurnov only cos i have a multi with Berto!!A hell of alot of nice games 2morro betting wise!!!

sports freak
05-08-2006, 02:59 PM
thanks.......by the way what do you think of using Starace as a pivot point?..........@1.28 against Tursonov.........i am quite confident but after this now have been thinking for a while now...........thinking of

1) Starace x Heat @1.80
2) Starace x Martin @1.80
3) Starace x Cleveland (MLB) @1.92

You are friggin mad,the Russian wont be a push over,apparently the surface is quite face which will suit his power house game imo!!!!

Horatio Caine
05-08-2006, 03:05 PM
thanks.......by the way what do you think of using Starace as a pivot point?..........@1.28 against Tursonov.........i am quite confident but after this now have been thinking for a while now...........thinking of

1) Starace x Heat @1.80
2) Starace x Martin @1.80
3) Starace x Cleveland (MLB) @1.92

Mate, I don't wish to sound offensive, but haven't you learnt from your last mistake? :eek:

Tursunov has a 30% chance of victory I reckon...and the way the results have been going today, maybe a better chance than that

AceMaan
05-08-2006, 03:18 PM
i guess you guys are right......story of my life ....whenever i start a streak.........my bets can start to get reckless at times...........will lay off doing multiple combos involving same player

TwistyServe
05-08-2006, 03:18 PM
Tursunov has a 30% chance of victory I reckon...and the way the results have been going today, maybe a better chance than that


Well I dont think the results have been unexpected. There's aways a few upsets in every stage of the tournament. Ljub and Seppi losing is by no means shocking.

elroyf
05-08-2006, 03:24 PM
Shocker from Ljubo

I think the slowness of the court took it's toll.

Will favour players like Starace and against everyone's new favourite player Tursunov.

Large stake on Starace @ 1.34 (Betfair)

AceMaan
05-08-2006, 03:28 PM
everyone seems to favour Bracillli over Kiefer..........but if the surface is slow......would it be bad for the Italians game.......he won a clay tournament two weeks back......is the surface there similar?

Horatio Caine
05-08-2006, 03:35 PM
Well I dont think the results have been unexpected. There's aways a few upsets in every stage of the tournament. Ljub and Seppi losing is by no means shocking.

Yep, as I've said :confused:

Horatio Caine
05-08-2006, 03:37 PM
everyone seems to favour Bracillli over Kiefer..........but if the surface is slow......would it be bad for the Italians game.......he won a clay tournament two weeks back......is the surface there similar?

Bracciali has been injured and Kiefer isn't bad on clay...not a banker by any means

elroyf - this court will play more into Tursunov's hands than any other claycourt in Europe. He stands a chance so I wouldn't put anything major on it. Wait for the odds on Ginepri's next opponent! :devil:

betowiec
05-08-2006, 03:38 PM
i am jumping on Potato's bandwagon (low stakes)
1:0 today (ancic)

elroyf
05-08-2006, 03:43 PM
Bracciali has been injured and Kiefer isn't bad on clay...not a banker by any means

elroyf - this court will play more into Tursunov's hands than any other claycourt in Europe. He stands a chance so I wouldn't put anything major on it. Wait for the odds on Ginepri's next opponent! :devil:

Thanks for the advice.

My reasoning for the bet is Starace is better on the slower clay surfaces and this is one of the slowest. Also, slower = worse for Tursunov!

So why would it play into his hands :confused:

Home crowd may play a small part as well.

AceMaan
05-08-2006, 03:51 PM
what do you guys feelabout Hass odds of 2.00 against Monfils!......to good to be true?

Corey Feldman
05-08-2006, 03:53 PM
Well I dont think the results have been unexpected. There's aways a few upsets in every stage of the tournament. Ljub and Seppi losing is by no means shocking.agreed, but Seppi :rolleyes:
bad times for me in tennis, every day im always between 2 matches and the one i pick loses, the other i dont pick.. wins,
also made the brainless mistakes of taking a few WTA matches last week.
all i can say is thank goodness for my football bets to balance me out, but they wont be around much longer.

as for tomorrow... i think Hidalgo @1.62 over Coria is great... so everyone can bet their house on Coria (who will win 6-2 6-2 off course now) and thank me later.

and Almagro in his next 2 rounds as well.

TwistyServe
05-08-2006, 04:08 PM
as for tomorrow... i think Hidalgo @1.62 over Coria is great... so everyone can bet their house on Coria (who will win 6-2 6-2 off course now) and thank me later.


RRH is a dog to coria.. Pinnacle odds have coria at 1.59 so RRH is around 2.5...

Corey Feldman
05-08-2006, 04:13 PM
Yeps.. typo on my part
@2.62
or 2.5 it seems...

either way, looks a good bet
hidalgo even beat him on clay this year already

Freeze17171
05-08-2006, 04:15 PM
i guess you guys are right......story of my life ....whenever i start a streak.........my bets can start to get reckless at times...........will lay off doing multiple combos involving same player

That is the difference between gamblers and smart sports investors, money management. Gamblers rarely come out ahead because they are recklessly aggressive when they win, and they are recklessly aggressive when they lose trying to recover losses.

We all have hot and cold streaks, its just a matter of limiting your losses when you are going through a rough spot.

fisherking
05-08-2006, 04:51 PM
thanks.......by the way what do you think of using Starace as a pivot point?..........@1.28 against Tursonov.........i am quite confident but after this now have been thinking for a while now...........thinking of

1) Starace x Heat @1.80
2) Starace x Martin @1.80
3) Starace x Cleveland (MLB) @1.92


lol, mate, no offence from me here, but you give me the reason to go against Heat tonight ;)

Horatio Caine
05-08-2006, 05:16 PM
That is my strategy but it only works if it isnt abused. I look for differences in match-up and statistics...I didn't do either very well today.

My worst fear...didn't find this until now:

Seppi - 1/5 vs top 50 players in 2006 :rolleyes:

Starace is about 50/50 statistically and his excellent clay record lifts him to about 70% favourite imo.

fisherking
05-08-2006, 05:34 PM
Acasuso over Ferrer @2.25
Serra over Blake @1.87
Wawrinka over Gonzalez @2.75
Seppi over Youzhny @1.625 but it seems that public is on italiano here what scares me a bit

and just for tracking purposes:
Massu over Almagro @2.86
Horna over Ancic @1.833
Monfils over Haaas @2.96
Santoro over Monaco @2.42

prices from pinnacle
gl

could be better but i don't have reason to complain

AceMaan
05-08-2006, 05:38 PM
lol, mate, no offence from me here, but you give me the reason to go against Heat tonight ;)

Carter will have O'Neal to deal with tonight......and the New Jersey offence will be a little bit blunted as they need to deal with Wade..........three point trheats from Williams,Payton and Walker............will open up space for Wade and O'Neal to exploit.........an easy 1.40

AceMaan
05-08-2006, 05:40 PM
My worst fear...didn't find this until now:

Seppi - 1/5 vs top 50 players in 2006 :rolleyes:

Starace is about 50/50 statistically and his excellent clay record lifts him to about 70% favourite imo.

hey bro'..........why don't play the life bet if unsure..........at 1.28...the most his odds will drop to is 1.22..................to see how Tursonov settles in

Horatio Caine
05-08-2006, 05:48 PM
hey bro'..........why don't play the life bet if unsure..........at 1.28...the most his odds will drop to is 1.22..................to see how Tursonov settles in

I have studying to do mate - gambling is just a hobby for me ;)

Hope Starace wins for you :yeah:

TwistyServe
05-08-2006, 06:03 PM
Well so far not a great start.

Brac loses in 3 sets, Seppi sucks

0-2.

Going to add a "sure" wage on Starace and see how he does against the clay king Dima @1.37. Low odds but a winner is a winner, cant see starace losing.

elroyf
05-08-2006, 06:16 PM
To be honest, I'm not seeing anything absolutely certain tomorrow.

Tursunov might be able to knock off Starace, Hrbaty could knock off Ljubo...it is not inconceivable that Youzhny will beat Seppi. :shrug:

I have leans...but nothing all that certain.

I think I'll have to :zzz: on it

2 out of 3 so far!

Freeze17171
05-08-2006, 06:18 PM
If Greg can beat Tommy, Dima can beat Potato.

TwistyServe
05-08-2006, 06:20 PM
If Greg can beat Tommy, Dima can beat Potato.

Oh of course hehe. Potato lost to Sabau twice after taking the first set 6-0.. I'm pretty sure anyone can beat Starace when he's concentration goes astray.

Horatio Caine
05-08-2006, 07:02 PM
2 out of 3 so far!

Sadly I didn't sleep on it and opposed myself...means jack now really :lol:

...if only I'd updated my stats database sooner :( Seppi 1/5 - never would have taken it :( :bigcry:

New day tomorrow :woohoo:

Horatio Caine
05-08-2006, 07:04 PM
Dima can beat Potato.

He has a good chance. The court seems to be playing quick to be getting these results...plays more into Dima's hands than other European clay courts.

fisherking
05-08-2006, 07:12 PM
He has a good chance. The court seems to be playing quick to be getting these results...plays more into Dima's hands than other European clay courts.

Very true. Besides i love to bet on Starace, Volandri, Almagro and such bunch of players when they are dogs - never when they are favs. Small bet on Dima from me here.

TwistyServe
05-08-2006, 08:23 PM
Starace saves my day from total disaster

1-3 WTD

dbnumberone
05-08-2006, 08:35 PM
Starace saves my day from total disaster

1-3 WTD

potito! :D

betowiec
05-08-2006, 08:47 PM
don't even know the potito score, but anyway 2:0 for the day

sports freak
05-08-2006, 11:18 PM
Went through 4 pages n cannot believe no one has mentioned Berto which is incredible,the guy will give Old man Sangy a hiding n a half,also agree on Almagro too good of odds to miss out!!!

40 units on Nicolas Almagro 1.48/Alberto Martin 1.54 @ 2.27 over Nico Massu/David Sanguinetti- Nico should clean sweep Massu,while Berto should take care of Sangy in his back yard,too consistent atm!!The Italaion Stallion is joining Ranier Schuettler in retirement im afraid!!

Good luck - Other leans on Santoro 2.20/Seppi!!!!

Too Easy, Berto/Almagro both win in straight sets!!!