'Shocking-Serving' Saturday? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

'Shocking-Serving' Saturday?

Dollars & Cents
05-05-2006, 10:24 PM
The title is inspired by the opportunity of backing Dementieva but with 'Big Ivo' exiting claycourt action now we'll see plenty of similar serving in the ATP tournaments no doubt. :p

ATP BMW Open, Munchen
Jarkko Nieminen - Kristof Vliegen
Olivier Rochus - Jürgen Melzer

ATP Estoril Open
Carlos Moya - Nikolay Davydenko
David Nalbandian - Albert Portas

WTA J&S Cup, Warsaw
Kim Clijsters - Elena Dementieva
Svetlana Kuznetsova - Anna Chakvetadze

WTA Estoril Open
Flavia Pennetta - Jie Zheng
Emilie Loit - Na Li

Dollars & Cents
05-05-2006, 10:29 PM
Immediately I like:

Rochus to beat Melzer @ 1.75 (Paddy Power)
Odds are higher than the 1.60 currently elsewhere. I don't read too much into Melzer's win over Karlovic and couldn't understand the masses backing Ivo on clay. Was surprised the Austrian has soldiered on this week whereas Rochus has played some exceptional stuff watching via the livestream. Last meeting a couple of months ago in Rotterdam was much closer than expected but this time the odds are higher but I don't necessarily buy the logic that Melzer is any better on clay despite his recent results.

So what about Dementieva? Can we trust her or will we be cringing counting the DF's? It's that last point that puts me off but prices of 2.60+ on Betfair.

Sambuca
05-05-2006, 10:45 PM
just taken Vliegen 2.78 on betfair....good odd i think! what's your opinion?

DeccyB123
05-05-2006, 11:11 PM
I'm liking Melzer once again today, he's the in-form one on clay, Rochus is still yet to beat anyone great on this surface...

Vliegen as a dog also looks appealing.

elroyf
05-05-2006, 11:40 PM
Nalbandian in straight sets over Portas. Bandy seesm to get better as tournaments go on, althought he hasn't really had much of a challenge yet. I don't think tomorrow will be much of one either.

I am also gonna go for Davydenko over Moya. 4-0 h2h to Moya but the last meeting was in 2004 and Davy has improved a lot since then. Moya has declined. Moya has beaten some poor opponents, Davy has beaten Safin/Muller who aren't too bad. Good odds on Davydenko too.

Horatio Caine
05-06-2006, 12:04 AM
Dollars - I also like Rochus over Melzer and will consider a play. However, he is 3/9 vs lefties on clay and has also lost to Melzer in their two matches on clay. That said, name me one decent player Melzer has beaten on clay in 2006 :shrug:

I'd be expecting Bandy to win.

Leans on Moya and Nieminen

Mr Flamboyant
05-06-2006, 01:24 AM
Jez - a boquet to you once again for quality analysis .. Last night's Portas X Moya win took my tennis record to 4-0 (Barcelona, Monte Carlo and Estoril) and you've helped steer me (and others I'm sure) on the right path more than once over that time .. Cheers!

dbnumberone
05-06-2006, 04:51 AM
I'm liking Melzer once again today, he's the in-form one on clay, Rochus is still yet to beat anyone great on this surface...

Vliegen as a dog also looks appealing.

tossup in the forum on this match
I'm on the dog (!) Melzer w/ ya Deccy
I don't rate Ollie much on clay - he's never done anything on the surface including 0-2 v. Melzer - nice that he made semis, but Ollie (or Melzer) hasn't exactly had a tough road to get here, so all things being equal, I'll go w/ the better clay player & history
gl to us!

Lebowski
05-06-2006, 05:18 AM
I dont see Davydenko laying down to Moya. I think its time for him to become some what respectable again and Moya will continue to fade towards the Sunset.

Andre♥
05-06-2006, 06:34 AM
I watched Moya vs GGL on tv and it was a pretty close game. Moya won just because of his experience and I wasn't very impressed by him...

Freeze17171
05-06-2006, 07:16 AM
The same could be said about Rochus, name one quality player he has beaten on clay in the last year? This match is 50/50 in my mind, so that puts the value on Melzer at +130. The two met in Feb and played a VERY close 3 setter on Ollie's best surface, indoor hard. Melzer leads the H2H 2-0 on clay and I'm more impressed with Melzer's road to the semis than Ollies.

TwistyServe
05-06-2006, 07:55 AM
I likes melzer too.. will decide soon to pick him or leave it

Lebowski
05-06-2006, 08:14 AM
I actually like Oliver. I just think he needed a few matches on clay to get adjusted. 90% of the time (I dont care what service it is) Rochus will be a pest to his oppnent.

DeccyB123
05-06-2006, 08:53 AM
Jumping on:

Melzer @ 2

:yeah:

dbnumberone
05-06-2006, 09:04 AM
Jumping on:

Melzer @ 2

:yeah:

we need to start our own book between all of us based on the differing opinions on the ollie/jurgen match, lol

Cornincrap
05-06-2006, 09:22 AM
Melzer to take it in 3.

Sambuca
05-06-2006, 11:03 AM
Zheng 2.52 betfair
Dementieva 3.10 betfair
Vliegen 2.64 betfair but yesterday i've take him 2.78


every matches are good for livebetting!


for Melzer i'll attend Vliegen! :-P

Horatio Caine
05-06-2006, 11:56 AM
Jez - a boquet to you once again for quality analysis .. Last night's Portas X Moya win took my tennis record to 4-0 (Barcelona, Monte Carlo and Estoril) and you've helped steer me (and others I'm sure) on the right path more than once over that time .. Cheers!

Thanks mate - really appreciate it! ;)

But I have also probably steered you and others towards losing plays so it all balances itself out...and it is a team effort on these boards so I don't take all the credit.

Keep winning champ :yeah:

Horatio Caine
05-06-2006, 12:00 PM
The same could be said about Rochus, name one quality player he has beaten on clay in the last year? This match is 50/50 in my mind, so that puts the value on Melzer at +130. The two met in Feb and played a VERY close 3 setter on Ollie's best surface, indoor hard. Melzer leads the H2H 2-0 on clay and I'm more impressed with Melzer's road to the semis than Ollies.

The best player Melzer has beaten on clay this year is probably Marcos Daniel...Rochus ha defeated Monfils and Ramirez-H has had a relatively good year on the clay so far :shrug:

Melzer has played 3 no-marks on clay this week (and mostly in Houston too) and Ollie has played 3 players who aren't bad on it...a bit of a difference imo

I agree with the 50/50 analysis which means that Melzer is value...but I think Rochus can squeak it.

Horatio Caine
05-06-2006, 12:02 PM
Pfff...I'm staying away today but my leans are:

Nalbandian (!), Rochus, Nieminen and Moya.

Probably a good reason I'm not playing! :lol:

betowiec
05-06-2006, 01:44 PM
Pfff...I'm staying away today but my leans are:

Nalbandian (!), Rochus, Nieminen and Moya.

Probably a good reason I'm not playing! :lol:

no bet on atp matches either, cuz cannot trust Davy again

had only Clijsters which was OK

Sambuca
05-06-2006, 02:03 PM
Zheng 2.52 betfair
Dementieva 3.10 betfair
Vliegen 2.64 betfair but yesterday i've take him 2.78




Kim better...nothing to say.

but great day or what for me??? :)

Freeze17171
05-06-2006, 05:43 PM
The best player Melzer has beaten on clay this year is probably Marcos Daniel...Rochus ha defeated Monfils and Ramirez-H has had a relatively good year on the clay so far :shrug:

Melzer has played 3 no-marks on clay this week (and mostly in Houston too) and Ollie has played 3 players who aren't bad on it...a bit of a difference imo

I agree with the 50/50 analysis which means that Melzer is value...but I think Rochus can squeak it.

Nice call with Rochus squeaking it, it played out just like you said. :D

Melzer beat GGL in Casablanca, and I'd rate him higher quality than Monfils and RRH right now.

Congrats on the great day Sambuca!

elroyf
05-06-2006, 06:40 PM
Nalbandian in straight sets over Portas. Bandy seesm to get better as tournaments go on, althought he hasn't really had much of a challenge yet. I don't think tomorrow will be much of one either.

I am also gonna go for Davydenko over Moya. 4-0 h2h to Moya but the last meeting was in 2004 and Davy has improved a lot since then. Moya has declined. Moya has beaten some poor opponents, Davy has beaten Safin/Muller who aren't too bad. Good odds on Davydenko too.

Won :yeah:

Horatio Caine
05-06-2006, 07:13 PM
Nice call with Rochus squeaking it, it played out just like you said. :D

Melzer beat GGL in Casablanca, and I'd rate him higher quality than Monfils and RRH right now.

Cheers mate - off with Moya though and Nieminen was ill :confused:

Congrats Sambuca and elroyf :yeah:

elroyf
05-06-2006, 08:24 PM
Thanks Jez :)