Freestylin' Friday! [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Freestylin' Friday!

Horatio Caine
05-04-2006, 06:42 PM
Some very interesting match-ups but the odds provided for some of the matche are fairly poor though.

Munich

Karlovic over Melzer - if Ivo's energy is good enough, he should win. Melzer holds a 2/0 h2h lead but their last meeting was a couple of years ago and Ivo was new on the ATP scene then. Melzer notoriously struggles with serve-volleyers and has even lost to Rusedski and Fish on clay :help: Not sure of odds...would have to be over 1.70 for Ivo for me to consider backing him so it is unlikely I will be.

Nieminen over Vik @ 1.22 - little explanation necessary...no chance of an upset unless Jarkko fancies making it early to Rome - he is not the sort of player I'd expect to do that.


Estoril

Portas over Gimelstob @ 1.40 - Gimel was lucky (and did well) to come back twice this week...should be one too many and he plays a fairly decent opponent. That said, the pair played doubles this week (and lost R1) so maybe we could see a repeat of the Rochus/Muller type match? :shrug:

Davydenko over Muller @ 1.30 - rather generous odds and I have no idea why. Again, as with Nieminen, Davydenko won't lose this match unless he wants an early ticket to Rome...as he impressed against Safin, I think it is unlikely he'd want to tank...and he has a good chance of winning his first title in ages - surely that is worth staying for?


If I play anything, I would play Portas x Nieminen @ 1.71...seems the safer option out of all the matches.

If I don't decide to play that will be 3rd day in succession that I take a back seat...can't do that! :lol:

Freeze17171
05-04-2006, 06:59 PM
From looking at the posts from people that watched the match, it was more Marat losing than Davy winning. Davy should beat the volatile Muller, but he hasn't been the most consistent player himself lately.

Haha, beware of the dreaded doubles partner matches, Rochus/Muller and Clement/Mahut went very very wrong. Not to mention Justin has been killing chalk all week long.

Nieminen is the safest bet I think also, if Karlovic is near even odds he is probably worth a play as well.

DeccyB123
05-04-2006, 10:33 PM
I actually like Melzer today, he's really been hitting his form on this surface. Karlovic just scraped by Phau, who I don't rate at all.

Sambuca
05-04-2006, 10:45 PM
how can you think Ivo is a good bet? i'm on Melzer at this odds! very incredible for me! Real claycounter against a player who can do good things but not excellents! 2-0 h2h....i'm with Jurgen.
Melzer @2.20 StanJames.

i'm thinking about Goldstein over Portas and Kohlschreiber over Vliegen...what do you think? i'm not so sure.....

Horatio Caine
05-04-2006, 10:51 PM
I actually like Melzer today, he's really been hitting his form on this surface. Karlovic just scraped by Phau, who I don't rate at all.

Mate - I really don't know how many times it has to be reiterated, but the outcome of a particular match depends entirely on the particular match-up....and not on whether a player scrapes through a couple of rounds. ;)

Melzer has never lost to Karlovic but when Dr. Ivo serves as well as he has done, it is so difficult to break him...and that will remain a factor in this match. The only difference with Melzer right now is that he has actally rediscovered the meaning of winning - but even then he has hardly set the world alight.

I thought Ivo would break once a set and be done with it today...but Phau has a decent return, even if he lacks general pace. Melzer is a flaky player and is likely to give up a service game at the click of your fingers...not to mention that fact that he has lost to clay supremos such as Fish and Rusedski (the latter being a serve-volleyer).

Horatio Caine
05-04-2006, 10:58 PM
how can you think Ivo is a good bet?

We'll see about it tomorrow then! :p I'll gladly come back and say I was wrong after the match if that is the case - besides it is only a thought as to how the match will go.

i'm on Melzer at this odds! very incredible for me! Real claycounter against a player who can do good things but not excellents! 2-0 h2h....i'm with Jurgen.
Melzer @2.20 StanJames.

Isn't Wawrinka a real claycourt player? He was lucky to get by Ivo :shrug:

If Jurgen can lose to Fish and Rusedski on clay, for instance, Ivo has a good shot if you ask me.


i'm thinking about Goldstein over Portas and Kohlschreiber over Vliegen...what do you think? i'm not so sure.....

I'll be shocked if Gimelstob wins that...although Portas's dropshots will let Gimelstob attack the net if he can run them down. They have played doubles together this week so it might be a bit dodgy as Freeze indicates.

I'd favour Vliegen but that match is close to 50/50 in my opinion and I have no intention of betting it

Sambuca
05-04-2006, 11:04 PM
ok..thanks for Portas-Gimelstob.
About Ivo-Jurgen i'm with my opinion that on clay Ivo favourite by books is dangerous for us.
Vliegen 50/50...it's logic to take best odd!

Jaap
05-04-2006, 11:04 PM
Melzer does look good value against Ivo but Ivo matches are always a bit of lottery....usually decided by the odd point here or there.

Portas over Gimelstob is one I will likely take. Gimelstob beat an awful Dlouhy in the first round and tank job Massu in the 2nd....this doesn't cloud the fact that he stinks on clay so I'm backing Portas to beat him although I'm a bit worried whether Portas's 32 year old legs can get past another round. :confused:

Horatio Caine
05-04-2006, 11:08 PM
although I'm a bit worried whether Portas's 32 year old legs can get past another round. :confused:

Well Gimelstob is 29 so he is not young either :lol:

Also consider that Gimelstob is not used to playing on clay which is the most demanding surface of them all...therefore you'd expect him to struggle rather than Portas who spends his life on it. I doubt that fatigue would be much of an issue in a 3-set match anyway...particularly as this is the sort of match-up that will probably be quite comfortable one way or the other.

elroyf
05-04-2006, 11:10 PM
Definitely Portas. I think Gimelstob has played players who have just self-destructed.

Parlay with Davy, Portas and Moya at 2.7 or so - easy money. Will probably add Nalbandian when I get the odds.

Moya plays GGL who scraped past Berlocq and Davydenko has just had a morale boosting victory over his compatriot Safin.

Moya and Davy also seem to play well at Estoril. I think Davy will get to the final.

Favourites Friday at Estoril!

Freeze17171
05-04-2006, 11:18 PM
Definitely Portas. I think Gimelstob has played players who have just self-destructed.

Parlay with Davy, Portas and Moya at 2.7 or so - easy money. Will probably add Nalbandian when I get the odds.

Moya plays GGL who scraped past Berlocq and Davydenko has just had a morale boosting victory over his compatriot Safin.

Moya and Davy also seem to play well at Estoril. I think Davy will get to the final.

Favourites Friday at Estoril!

GGL made the semis here last year as well, losing to Gaston in 3.

Davy should make the finals though.

Also, Big Ivo has beaten Davy and Haas during his serving blitz, two top ranked players and very capable ones on clay. Of course, his success is almost entirely reliant on his serve, but if he's on, Melzer isn't touching it and will get frustrated. All Ivo needs is one service game letdown and it is over. That puts an incredible amount of pressure on his opposition.

Sambuca
05-04-2006, 11:24 PM
ok...not Melzer for me! i think aren't there good value today.

About Na Li-Dulko ...i think chinese girl is real favourite..but not for bookies!!

Sambuca
05-04-2006, 11:25 PM
and for Schiavone there is a real possibilty to beat Kim for first time !

Freeze17171
05-05-2006, 12:02 AM
ok...not Melzer for me! i think aren't there good value today.

About Na Li-Dulko ...i think chinese girl is real favourite..but not for bookies!!

Both Jie Zheng and Na Li have impressed so far as Estoril. Dulko has more experience on clay, but Li is not slouch, she made the finals here last year.

The Undertaker
05-05-2006, 01:29 AM
I fancy Vliegen over Kohlschreiber, Phillip barely beat Hernych and win againts Ancic is nice, but it was his first match coming after injury. Last year he hasn`t done much on clay, while Kristof is playing quiet well last couple of weeks.

I`ll probably risk with GGL over Moya if the odds are good.

Karlovic`s matches are always 50-50 in my opinion, so i`ll take whoever has better odds.

Portas, Davydenko and Nieminen are most sure bets for today.

AceMaan
05-05-2006, 03:34 AM
Ivo is really all serve and nothing else......my rule of thumb when he is involved in any match....is to back him if his odds are greater than evens and back his opponent if his odds are greater than evens

bad gambler
05-05-2006, 03:37 AM
Ivo is really all serve and nothing else......my rule of thumb when he is involved in any match....is to back him if his odds are greater than evens and back his opponent if his odds are greater than evens


not a bad rule about backing Ivo at massive odds, I apply the same rule with dementieva

Anders
05-05-2006, 03:58 AM
Week to Date: 6-5 +7.45 units

Munich:

Vik +345 o Nieminen (1) pending
Vliegen -160 o Kohlschreiber (1)
Melzer +112 o Karlovic (1)

Estoril

Parlay:
Portas/Moya +109 (1)

GL

AceMaan
05-05-2006, 04:14 AM
Doing some lazy betting today .....not much study just taking better odds.....and using Nieminen as an anchor point

1) Nieminen x Davydenko @1.70
2) Nieminen x Porta @1.80
3) Nieminen x Kliegen @1.96

bad gambler
05-05-2006, 04:16 AM
What happens if Nieminen loses?

AceMaan
05-05-2006, 04:18 AM
What happens if Nieminen loses?

Quite confident that he will pull through........he took a set of Nadal last week........no mean feat........

bad gambler
05-05-2006, 04:19 AM
well gl with that, but having 3 parlays contingent on one player regardless of the odds/your confidence level is train wreck waiting to happen

ask jez, he will clue you in a bit more ;)

AceMaan
05-05-2006, 04:22 AM
well gl with that, but having 3 parlays contingent on one player regardless of the odds/your confidence level is train wreck waiting to happen

ask jez, he will clue you in a bit more ;)

i clearly know how he feels..........everything i play those parlays...........it is my 1.06 and 1.10 odds that screw me.............but that's gambling right? :)

bad gambler
05-05-2006, 04:26 AM
well true, but gambling is hard as it is, no need to compicate it further :p

TwistyServe
05-05-2006, 05:47 AM
What happens if Nieminen loses?

Well I think it's okay if lets assume he was going to 3 units on Nieminen.. Instead he divides those 3 units into three 1 unit bets and adds a parlay to each bet to increase some value.

Of course most people with same contingent parlays do so without such thought; I confest I've hit some contingent parlays.. :eek:

betowiec
05-05-2006, 07:16 AM
don't like anything too much so only 2 small plays:

dog Kohlschreiber

and a parlay:

dementieva, clijsters, moya, davy and jarrko

jen_nz
05-05-2006, 07:30 AM
I like Oli over Gremelmayr. He has beaten Coria but Oli is a consistent player. I don't think he can pull through this time. What do you guys think?

Anders
05-05-2006, 07:55 AM
jen - should win, but u have to consider whether he is value at the price

Mr Flamboyant
05-05-2006, 08:43 AM
parlay him up with Portas or Davydenko and lock in a nice 'banker' double for around $1.80 ..

Corey Feldman
05-05-2006, 09:36 AM
not usually into WTA
but like Dominguez-Lino @1.83 over E.Loit in Estoril

Yoel and co.
05-05-2006, 09:50 AM
Portas only for me

DeccyB123
05-05-2006, 09:58 AM
Think Melzer will win, but cant get better odds than 1.93, so leaving it alone. It'd probably a good thing anyway, don't like the look of today at all...

But, jumping on Nieminen @ 2.75 to win the tournament, small bet, as I don't really like outrights.

:yeah:

Anders
05-05-2006, 10:23 AM
sharps have def hit on Melzer, that's some line movement...

Jaap
05-05-2006, 11:11 AM
Moya x Niemenen x Portas.

Moya seems in pretty good form this week whereas GGL has had to get past some marathon matches so hopefully he will be feeling tired.

Niemenen is always a pretty reliable bet. He usually beats players he is supposed to beat and Vik is no great shakes with clay not being his favourite surface.

Portas is a much better clay court player than Gimelstob and providing there is no dodgy going ons with them being double partners this week, Portas should win.

Mr Flamboyant
05-05-2006, 11:25 AM
Ok Portas looks a good 'anchor' given that he virtually lives on clay .. Might pass on Moya .. won with Muller (over lapentti) in my only play on this tournament thus far, bit reluctant to oppose him given that he hasn't dropped a set this week, but is he any real chance of knocking off Davydenko?

AceMaan
05-05-2006, 11:26 AM
Karlovic @1.83 now.............my thinking is Karlovic in two or Melzer in three

AceMaan
05-05-2006, 11:35 AM
Another one is Gremelmayr to take at least one set @1.88..............to beat Coria you need to be in decent form as Coria is not the sort to make many unforce errors..............

Horatio Caine
05-05-2006, 11:45 AM
well gl with that, but having 3 parlays contingent on one player regardless of the odds/your confidence level is train wreck waiting to happen

ask jez, he will clue you in a bit more ;)

:haha: Man I still remember that one well...A-Rod losing to Benneteau :hysteric:

Anything can happen ace...but gl mate :yeah:

DeccyB123
05-05-2006, 11:45 AM
Interesting stat: Davydenko 9-1 against lefties in the last 12 months, only losing to a drugged up Puerta on clay.

Horatio Caine
05-05-2006, 11:47 AM
not usually into WTA
but like Dominguez-Lino @1.83 over E.Loit in Estoril

WTA = :scared:

Horatio Caine
05-05-2006, 11:49 AM
Interesting stat: Davydenko 9-1 against lefties in the last 12 months, only losing to a drugged up Puerta on clay.

Yep - I noticed that. But you have to ask whether Davydenko will commit 100% to the tourney now. He has finally found bit of form on the clay and has a few confidence - boosting wins...does he want to go to Rome early? Probably not...but you never know. Muller could scare him.

Mr Flamboyant
05-05-2006, 11:53 AM
What about Moya .. if the above 'cons' against Davydenko are enough to pass on him, then surely the opposite must apply to Moya ..? He's been pretty ordinary until this week, but hasn't dropped a set yet, while his opponent has scraped through both matches.

Moya X Portas .. @ $1.90 ish .. thoughts?

Horatio Caine
05-05-2006, 12:03 PM
Okay...I woke up too late to take Nieminen :lol:

So I looked for something else...the pick of the matches today are Moya and Portas respectively...also Vliegen stands out a little.

I'll go with:

Portas x Moya @ 1.90 - medium stake

Analysis: http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/showthread.php?p=23531#post23531

Good luck! :yeah:

Jaap
05-05-2006, 12:56 PM
Niemenen wins. He must be one of the most reliable players to back. He never tanks or chokes games and usually beats players he is supposed to. I actually can't remember a time he has let me down. :D

AceMaan
05-05-2006, 01:10 PM
Moya x Niemenen x Portas.

Moya seems in pretty good form this week whereas GGL has had to get past some marathon matches so hopefully he will be feeling tired.

Niemenen is always a pretty reliable bet. He usually beats players he is supposed to beat and Vik is no great shakes with clay not being his favourite surface.

Portas is a much better clay court player than Gimelstob and providing there is no dodgy going ons with them being double partners this week, Portas should win.

very dangerous to put a player living on his pass successes in a parlay...........he may come up with flashes now and then .....but in the long run very risky betting method

AceMaan
05-05-2006, 01:26 PM
damn all my NBA and MLB earnings look like going down in tennis today........Ivanovic not wining in straight...............Vliegen down so far :(

Horatio Caine
05-05-2006, 01:44 PM
Niemenen wins. He must be one of the most reliable players to back. He never tanks or chokes games and usually beats players he is supposed to. I actually can't remember a time he has let me down. :D

I'm happy for him - at least he is spared every word under the sun for another day :yeah:

elroyf
05-05-2006, 02:10 PM
very dangerous to put a player living on his pass successes in a parlay...........he may come up with flashes now and then .....but in the long run very risky betting method

It's called form ;)

betowiec
05-05-2006, 02:20 PM
adding Rochus as a single (odds too low, but i am still taking them)

Mr Flamboyant
05-05-2006, 02:34 PM
Gimelstob's opening service game into it's 8th minute, gotta love that !

Mr Flamboyant
05-05-2006, 02:35 PM
And Portas breaks ..

Mr Flamboyant
05-05-2006, 02:36 PM
Portas 2-0 opening set ..

Horatio Caine
05-05-2006, 02:37 PM
And Portas breaks ..

Mate, the in-game thread is elsewhere...Gimelstob was down a set (and a break in his last match) in his last 2 matches so this is hardly surprising. ;)

Jaap
05-05-2006, 04:29 PM
Moya x Niemenen x Portas.
Win. :yeah:

Horatio Caine
05-05-2006, 04:35 PM
Portas x Moya @ 1.90 - medium stake

Oh man I'm enjoying this...thanks to Albert and Carlos :yeah: :woohoo: :banana: :smoke:

Cornincrap
05-05-2006, 04:39 PM
Nice picks! - i went with Moya and Porta :worship: :worship: :worship: :worship:

Freeze17171
05-05-2006, 04:43 PM
Hmm, I should have taken my Chinese leans, Li and Zheng both cruised to easy victories.

Looks like people are pounding Melzer, now Ivo is the dog, I might just have to bet him...

Horatio Caine
05-05-2006, 04:50 PM
Nice picks! - i went with Moya and Porta :worship: :worship: :worship: :worship:

:lol: They did us both proud.

I'm not going to hide it - I'm thoroughly enjoying a brilliant run right now...especially after the shit that was flung in my face by non-contributors :rolleyes:

Hopefully things will continue to go well...and that goes for all of us :yeah:

Horatio Caine
05-05-2006, 04:51 PM
Hmm, I should have taken my Chinese leans, Li and Zheng both cruised to easy victories.

Looks like people are pounding Melzer, now Ivo is the dog, I might just have to bet him...

Well the match is pretty much 50/50 but I'd give Ivo the edge myself...will be interesting to see what happens

betowiec
05-05-2006, 04:53 PM
adding Rochus as a single (odds too low, but i am still taking them)


thanks Ollie

Jaap
05-05-2006, 04:55 PM
Not a good day for the dogs. Everything has gone to form so far.

Congrats everyone.

betowiec
05-05-2006, 05:02 PM
don't like anything too much so only 2 small plays:

dog Kohlschreiber

and a parlay:

dementieva, clijsters, moya, davy and jarrko


kohlie loses

and my parlay is still good 4/5, so only Davy has a chance to f@ck it up

come on Davy

Jaap
05-05-2006, 05:09 PM
Relying on Davydenko = :scared:

TwistyServe
05-05-2006, 05:32 PM
Ya Id do a tiny hedge on it and take muller at high odds if it was big money.. if its a few hundred big deal just let it ride :) Muller aint much but he's beaten big players before.. gets on hot streaks.

dbnumberone
05-05-2006, 05:48 PM
Moya x Niemenen x Portas.

Moya seems in pretty good form this week whereas GGL has had to get past some marathon matches so hopefully he will be feeling tired.

Niemenen is always a pretty reliable bet. He usually beats players he is supposed to beat and Vik is no great shakes with clay not being his favourite surface.

Portas is a much better clay court player than Gimelstob and providing there is no dodgy going ons with them being double partners this week, Portas should win.

nice hit!

Freeze17171
05-05-2006, 06:05 PM
And it is a good thing I didn't take Ivo...

Horatio Caine
05-05-2006, 06:20 PM
We'll see about it tomorrow then! :p I'll gladly come back and say I was wrong after the match if that is the case - besides it is only a thought as to how the match will go.

Okay I was wrong! Congrats Sambuca! :yeah:

betowiec
05-05-2006, 06:25 PM
Ya Id do a tiny hedge on it and take muller at high odds if it was big money.. if its a few hundred big deal just let it ride :) Muller aint much but he's beaten big players before.. gets on hot streaks.

i did as you said: since it was nothing over a K, i decided to let it ride

hope Davy will try to make the semis

Sambuca
05-05-2006, 06:40 PM
ok...not Melzer for me! i think aren't there good value today.

About Na Li-Dulko ...i think chinese girl is real favourite..but not for bookies!!


:mad: :mad: i must bet with my brain!!!!!!! :mad: :devil:

elroyf
05-05-2006, 08:14 PM
Definitely Portas. I think Gimelstob has played players who have just self-destructed.

Parlay with Davy, Portas and Moya at 2.7 or so - easy money. Will probably add Nalbandian when I get the odds.

Moya plays GGL who scraped past Berlocq and Davydenko has just had a morale boosting victory over his compatriot Safin.

Moya and Davy also seem to play well at Estoril. I think Davy will get to the final.

Favourites Friday at Estoril!

Money in the bank :yeah:

betowiec
05-05-2006, 08:47 PM
kohlie loses

and my parlay is still good 4/5, so only Davy has a chance to f@ck it up

come on Davy

davy completes my 5/5 parlay

bad gambler
05-05-2006, 10:34 PM
very nice guys, looks like everyone cleaned up here :yeah:

Anders
05-07-2006, 03:51 AM
Week to Date: 6-5 +7.45 units

Munich:

Vik +345 o Nieminen (1) pending
Vliegen -160 o Kohlschreiber (1)
Melzer +112 o Karlovic (1)

Estoril

Parlay:
Portas/Moya +109 (1)

can't grumble about this week indeed, roof roof...

Week to Date: 9-6 +9.66 units