Munich/Estoril Monday [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Munich/Estoril Monday

Jaap
04-30-2006, 08:46 PM
Anyone got any leans for tommorows line ups. The odds ain't out yet with my bookie.

Estoril:
C.Rochus vs Muller
Spadea vs Davydenko
Dlouhy vs Gimelstob

Munich:
Andreas Beck vs Hernych
Vik vs Schuetller
Srichaphan vs Monaco
Tipsarevic vs Vliegen
Greul vs Pashanski

Fancy Vik over the useless Schuettler, Monaco over Srichapan and Pashanski over Greul out of that. Will have to see the odds when they come out.

Horatio Caine
04-30-2006, 09:06 PM
Guys - I was thinking of a new feature for each thread that starts off a new tennis week - a comment on the speed of the court (if anyone would know)

The reason I say this - I found a number of interesting trends with German clay...is it notoriuosly slow? I know Hamburg is cold and damp and that makes conditions slow, but what about Munich? :shrug: I assume Estoril is average sort of speed.

Horatio Caine
04-30-2006, 09:08 PM
Jaap...

Monaco over Srichaphan doesn't just look good because Paradorn struggles hugely with clay....check out the Thai's record on German clay - 2/9 :eek:

I'd also go Schuettler over Vik for the same reasons - Vik's record on Grman clay is awful...but we are talking about Schuettler as an opponent :rolleyes: Besides, they both play fairly similar games so it could be very close.

If you doubled those two up you'd get a 2+ bet

Horatio Caine
04-30-2006, 09:12 PM
I know this is Tuesday...but why is Melzer @ 1.83? :eek:

Jaap
04-30-2006, 09:19 PM
Jaap...

Monaco over Srichaphan doesn't just look good because Paradorn struggles hugely with clay....check out the Thai's record on German clay - 2/9 :eek:

I'd also go Schuettler over Vik for the same reasons - Vik's record on Grman clay is awful...but we are talking about Schuettler as an opponent :rolleyes: Besides, they both play fairly similar games so it could be very close.

If you doubled those two up you'd get a 2+ bet
Srichaphan struggles on all clay. I guess if like you say, the German clay courts being slow then Srichaphan will find it very hard. Although £1.33 for such a crap player like Monaco is not that tempting. :rolleyes:

Horatio Caine
04-30-2006, 09:27 PM
Well you asked for opinions.

Monaco and Schuettler are my leans from Munich.
Dlouhy and Chris Rochus from Estoril.

Jaap
04-30-2006, 09:55 PM
Andreas Beck over Herynch looks quite tempting. Beck seems to be the up and coming German player and has had some decent results at the clay court challengers including winning in Sarajevo and getting to the quarters in Chiasso. Herynch is very average and can lose to anyone. Might have a small play on Beck....just small though as I've never seen Beck play.

Horatio Caine
04-30-2006, 10:17 PM
Andreas Beck over Herynch looks quite tempting. Beck seems to be the up and coming German player and has had some decent results at the clay court challengers including winning in Sarajevo and getting to the quarters in Chiasso. Herynch is very average and can lose to anyone. Might have a small play on Beck....just small though as I've never seen Beck play.

How does Beck play?

Jaap
04-30-2006, 10:19 PM
How does Beck play?
All I know is that he is a leftie, has a double handed backhand and his favourite surface is clay......thats from ITF site.

Horatio Caine
04-30-2006, 10:44 PM
A few trends...

Hernych is on a 5-match losing streak against lefties, but it isn't that bad when you consider that he has lost to dangerous opponents on their favourite surfaces. Beck might be worth a shot @ 2.62

Srichaphan is poor on clay but abysmal on German clay. Monaco @ 1.36

Muller has yet to beat a top 100 player in 6 attempts this season...his least advantageous surface also happens to be clay...and Rochus is just the sort of player that he should find too tough to handle. C. Rochus @ 1.50

Dlouhy is winless in 8 matches on the ATP Tour in 2006 - he is 0/5 vs players 51-100. Gimelstob is 0/4 vs vs players 51-100. Huge difference here - Gimelstob is really poor on clay and Dlouhy is quite capable. Dlouhy @ 1.30

I might double a couple of those.

JMG
04-30-2006, 10:58 PM
Beck is good on all surfaces, but prefers clay. He has a solid backhand and a strong forehand and good serve. imo the weak part of his game is that he tries to finish points to often from the baseline instead of coming to the net.

The good thing about Beck is that he isn't a choker most of the time and has an excellent tb record. He also proved that he can play with players like Hernych, for example in Heilbronn, when he defeated Bracciali.

Jaap
04-30-2006, 11:21 PM
Cheers for the info JMG.

My plays for tommorrow:

Beck @ 2.88.

Monaco x Dlouhy x Vliegen @ 2.29

Andre♥
04-30-2006, 11:40 PM
Estoril is slowest clay tournament ever.

Munich is fast, just like Barcelona.

Horatio Caine
04-30-2006, 11:40 PM
Cheers JMG - but I'll stay away from a player I have yet to see in action ;)

Monaco x Dlouhy @ 1.77

Analysis: http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/showthread.php?p=22986&posted=1#post22986

Good luck! :yeah:

TwistyServe
05-01-2006, 12:12 AM
I felt Beck's favorite surface was indoor courts, like carpet :)

Arkan91
05-01-2006, 12:25 AM
caution on the rochus and muller match there both doubles partners
and we know what happened last week clement and mahut both doubles partners as well

Freeze17171
05-01-2006, 12:30 AM
Ah, don't remind me of that black mark in tennis betting (Clement). Still waiting for odds at Pinny...

betowiec
05-01-2006, 02:22 AM
caution on the rochus and muller match there both doubles partners
and we know what happened last week clement and mahut both doubles partners as well


thanks for pointing this out

sports freak
05-01-2006, 02:31 AM
I felt Beck's favorite surface was indoor courts, like carpet :)

You sure your not thinking of Karol Beck?

Freeze17171
05-01-2006, 03:22 AM
Leaning on Gruel over Pashanski, both are average clay courters but Boris is playing like complete crap as of late while Gruel is coming off reaching a challenger final on clay and his impressive run at Miami beating Srichaphan, Hrbaty, Henman, and taking Roddick to three.

Also Melzer over Youzhny.

bad gambler
05-01-2006, 03:50 AM
The women are playing in estoril as well, just what we need, some BS matches to hold up the queue :rolleyes:

Anders
05-01-2006, 03:50 AM
YTD: 107-127 +36.98 units

Last Week: 5-7 +0.00 units


Munich:

Beck +200 o Hernych (1.5)
Vik +175 o Schuettler (1.5)
Greul +100 o Pashanski (1.5)
Karlovic +289 o Haas (1.5)
Melzer -117 o Youzhny (1.5)
Starace +142 o Rochus (1.5)


Estoril

Portas -200 o Marin (1.5)
Sluiter +300 o Massu (1.5)

GL all

Nimrodg
05-01-2006, 05:00 AM
Beck X Greul @ 4.81
Monaco x Vliegen @ 1.86

TwistyServe
05-01-2006, 05:05 AM
You sure your not thinking of Karol Beck?

Yep all 3 times I bet on Andreas beck I've won. All 3 matches were carpet matches, one against Braccilli where Beck won 7-6, 6-3 :)

Julio
05-01-2006, 07:52 AM
I was watching some matchs last year in DSF (if i remember well) and for me clay in Munich is slow...

coup-du-cobra
05-01-2006, 08:22 AM
Guys - I was thinking of a new feature for each thread that starts off a new tennis week - a comment on the speed of the court (if anyone would know)

The reason I say this - I found a number of interesting trends with German clay...is it notoriuosly slow? I know Hamburg is cold and damp and that makes conditions slow, but what about Munich? :shrug: I assume Estoril is average sort of speed.


The courts is Munich are very fast compared to those in Hamburg. They enabled players like enqvist and philippoussis to do very well in the tourney in the past.
However conditions change every year (and I haven't seen a match in Munich yet) and every day with the weather.

Mr Flamboyant
05-01-2006, 09:05 AM
Is there any particular reason why Rochus is as high as $1.55 ..? Rankings wise he certainly looks to have an edge. Whilst neither he or Muller boast great recent results on clay, Rochus did at least beat a couple of decent players in Casablanca last week.

Is Rochus playing with one arm tied behind his back in this match or something?

bournerdan
05-01-2006, 10:06 AM
Anyone thinking that Spadea over Davydenko @3.40 is worth a go? Davydenko has been dreadful recently and Spadea holds a 3-0 H2H record over him as well, with one of them being on clay.......

coup3z
05-01-2006, 10:26 AM
acording to Tennisinsight.com :

Munich Open
Rated: 8.11
Percentile vs all courts: 34.82%*
Percentile vs Clay: 9.41%*


Estoril Open
Rated: 5.59
Percentile vs all courts: 95.54%*
Percentile vs Clay: 92.08%*


*Note that the lower the percentile, the faster the court is rated.

Mr Flamboyant
05-01-2006, 10:28 AM
Put it this way, you wouldn't be backing Davydenko in a hurry right now would you ..?!

coup-du-cobra
05-01-2006, 10:29 AM
acording to Tennisinsight.com :

Munich Open
Rated: 8.11
Percentile vs all courts: 34.82%*
Percentile vs Clay: 9.41%*


Estoril Open
Rated: 5.59
Percentile vs all courts: 95.54%*
Percentile vs Clay: 92.08%*


*Note that the lower the percentile, the faster the court is rated.


Really great work, mate!

Horatio Caine
05-01-2006, 11:16 AM
The courts is Munich are very fast compared to those in Hamburg. They enabled players like enqvist and philippoussis to do very well in the tourney in the past.
However conditions change every year (and I haven't seen a match in Munich yet) and every day with the weather.

Hmmm...if they are relatively fast then Monaco will probably lose :(

Horatio Caine
05-01-2006, 11:18 AM
acording to Tennisinsight.com :

Munich Open
Rated: 8.11
Percentile vs all courts: 34.82%*
Percentile vs Clay: 9.41%*


Estoril Open
Rated: 5.59
Percentile vs all courts: 95.54%*
Percentile vs Clay: 92.08%*


*Note that the lower the percentile, the faster the court is rated.


Thanks for that Coup....so Munich is quite slow and Estoril medium-pace? Stands to reason if so.

Julio
05-01-2006, 11:19 AM
acording to Tennisinsight.com :

Munich Open
Rated: 8.11
Percentile vs all courts: 34.82%*
Percentile vs Clay: 9.41%*


Estoril Open
Rated: 5.59
Percentile vs all courts: 95.54%*
Percentile vs Clay: 92.08%*


*Note that the lower the percentile, the faster the court is rated.

Hein ??? :confused:
So the clay of Munich would be 10 times more faster than in Estoril... :lol:
It's ridiculous.

Horatio Caine
05-01-2006, 11:21 AM
No - I have this completely wrong...I'm confused!!! :haha: :confused:

DeccyB123
05-01-2006, 11:49 AM
Srichaphan @ 2.75
Beck @ 2.6

Its about time Srichaphan won one, and with Monaco in poor form and the Munich courts being relatively fast this has to be his best chance.

:yeah:

Edit: Said good form, meant poor...

bad gambler
05-01-2006, 11:58 AM
Small play on Chapan as well to beat Monaco - $2.85

gl

elroyf
05-01-2006, 12:37 PM
Dlouhy over Gimelstob (1.43 at Betfair)

Value odds. Gimelstob is very poor on clay.

Dlouhy is not doing to well on clay this season, but surely is better than Gimelstob.

betowiec
05-01-2006, 12:55 PM
lets see how this week will go??

going with Christopher Rochus to beat Muller

g35-great
05-01-2006, 01:17 PM
D. Hantuchova + M. Sanchez Lorenzo @ 2.20

TwistyServe
05-01-2006, 02:02 PM
I'll be a sucker and take Pash over Greul @1.92

Besides Greul's recent run being henman and the likes he hasnt done anything.

0-0 WTD

Cornincrap
05-01-2006, 02:32 PM
Been seeing Karlovic serving pretty amazing lately, what is your take on his match against Haas, does he stand a chance on the courts of Munich?

3.7 is available

Ays25
05-01-2006, 02:43 PM
jumping and betting for olivier rochus to beat g muller @1.60
and then seeing it was cristophe (matchfixer) rochus..
i would never bet for this idiot waffle again, what was i thinking?

coup-du-cobra
05-01-2006, 02:52 PM
Been seeing Karlovic serving pretty amazing lately, what is your take on his match against Haas, does he stand a chance on the courts of Munich?

3.7 is available


Karlovic definitly has a chance. I think he is being slightly underrated on this match. However, Haas at home remains the clear favourite. Maybe try a small bet on the Big Croat.

g35-great
05-01-2006, 03:18 PM
Tommy Haas to win BMW open @ 4.50

Jaap
05-01-2006, 03:23 PM
Fucking choker Beck. He served for the first set....blew it. He served for the 2nd set....blew it but broke for the set next game and then was 4-0 up in the third only to lose the next 6 games. What a bottle job!!

Horatio Caine
05-01-2006, 03:33 PM
Wow - I feel for Beck backers. I have a policy of not betting in matches involving a player I don't know...so I'm lucky. Better luck next time

betowiec
05-01-2006, 05:07 PM
lets see how this week will go??

going with Christopher Rochus to beat Muller


bad streak from last night's nba games continues

tennis 0:1 wtd

Andre♥
05-01-2006, 05:08 PM
After watching 3 hours of Estoril Open on tv, I can speak about the court speed:

The court is usually really slow but thanks to good weather in the last weeks, it is slighty faster that it used to be, but it is still slow.

The wind usually causes troubles to the players, but for now there is no wind and since it looks like we're going to have good weather during the week, wind won't trouble nobody in Estoril this year.

Nimrodg
05-01-2006, 05:10 PM
Beck X Greul @ 4.81
Monaco x Vliegen @ 1.86

Lost

won

nice day for me :cool:

Freeze17171
05-01-2006, 05:16 PM
The good thing about Beck is that he isn't a choker most of the time and has an excellent tb record. He also proved that he can play with players like Hernych, for example in Heilbronn, when he defeated Bracciali.

Doh

TwistyServe
05-01-2006, 05:32 PM
Beck is decent overall; he just doesn't have the experience yet. Tough lost to Jan but I don't think he choked. Jan stepped it up when he needed to and he was an overwhelming favorite anyway.

Freeze17171
05-01-2006, 05:38 PM
Yeah but this isn't Nadal or Federer who can just step up and dominate anybody, this is Jan Hernych, who is solid, but not dominant. Serving for the set twice and failing, losing in a tiebreak, and losing a 4-0 lead in the 3rd set HAS to be considered choking.

Like Jarko losing to Nadal after being up 6-4, 4-1, nobody considered it a choke because once Nadal got going, he's just too good. But Hernych?

Horatio Caine
05-01-2006, 06:13 PM
Monaco x Dlouhy @ 1.77

Well I don't normally like to bad-mouth a player but Dlouhy is definitely a dreadful top 100 player...well played Gimelstob, but Dlouhy should never have lost that match. :(

Jaap
05-01-2006, 06:17 PM
Dlouhy is a tosser.