Stormy Saturday [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Stormy Saturday

TwistyServe
04-28-2006, 09:09 PM
R. Nadal
N. Almagro

T. Robredo
S. Wawrinka

G. Simon
D. Bracciali

N. Massu
B. Phau

TwistyServe
04-28-2006, 09:10 PM
I gots nice leans on everything match.

Almagro over Nadal (value bet)

Robredo over Wawa

Simon over Bracciali

Massu to pound the shit out of Phau

Lines decide what to wage :)

Horatio Caine
04-28-2006, 09:37 PM
Well it looked like the Massu vs Simon final was on the cards from the start of the tourney - hard not to bet against it tomorrow.

Massu should certainly spank Phau's backside into next week (1.33 - Betfair) but I'm not entirely convinced that Simon will beat Bracciali (1.48 - Betfair).

Why are a lot of people confident in Robredo? Whilst I think he will win, I wouldn't say I'm jumping out of my chair to back him at this minute :lol:

I will get the stats out again in a couple of hours.... :devil:

Sambuca
04-28-2006, 09:59 PM
4 matches and 12 sets played by Wawrinka. very hard to beat Tommy also....he is a regulare...he can play 3 hours tomorrow and Stan has got too many hours of tennis in his legs!

Simon and Massu should win their matches against two players who don't play their best tennis on clay like Braccio and Phau.

Now...if you can see and bet live for Almagro-Nadal match...odds on Almagro are very good!!! VAMOS!

Horatio Caine
04-28-2006, 10:13 PM
Willhill offer 1.22 on Massu :( and 1.50 on Simon :eek:

Two options:

Massu x Simon @ 1.83 - most likely. Just checked Bracciali's clay record and it isn't as good as I thought it would be. Simon is one of the best players on clay so far this year and should continue the run. He has the game to frustrate Bracciali into making errors. Massu doesn't need any explanation really - a loss would be a disgrace by his standards.

Massu 2-0 @ 1.61 - Massu has lost 14 sets on clay in 2006 - 8 of those have been in defeats. He shouldn't lose to Phau in a month of Sundays so that leaves 6 sets dropped in 14 wins...5 of those 6 sets were dropped in his first 3 clay tournies in 2006, before March. He was just getting going. The other set was dopped to Di Mauro in R2 this week on a tiebreak.

Whilst I respect your argument Sambuca...I'll leave the Robredo match alone. Wawrinka has a brilliant clay record and I'll respect that. I also think Nadal will beat Almagro so I won't waste the coin on that match.

Horatio Caine
04-28-2006, 10:15 PM
One more thing before I hit a bet in the next few hours....how does Bracciali play? I have seen him in action a couple of times on grass and he seemed quite good...but I don't recall too much about him. He seems impatient...has quite a big serve and game...anything else to add to that? Thanks :yeah:

Sambuca
04-28-2006, 10:21 PM
Whilst I respect your argument Sambuca...I'll leave the Robredo match alone. Wawrinka has a brilliant clay record and I'll respect that. I also think Nadal will beat Almagro so I won't waste the coin on that match.

i'll leave too Robredo because odds are not interesting! ;)

Bracciali is a very explosive player...if his brain is ON he can play a good match on clay also...but a player like Simon is a classical player he suffers!

shotgun
04-28-2006, 11:19 PM
Simon over Bracciali @ 1.50

small play on Almagro to beat Nadal @ 7.2 :rocker2:

Horatio Caine
04-28-2006, 11:43 PM
Massu x Simon @ 1.83 - small stake

Analysis: http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/showthread.php?p=22734#post22734

Good luck! :yeah:

betowiec
04-29-2006, 06:22 AM
riding that Tommy train, hoping Wawa won't steal my money

adding a value bet on Almagro $50 at 6

TwistyServe
04-29-2006, 08:44 AM
Two for me:

Almagro over Nadal @6.9

Massu 2-0 over Phau, @1.74

Risky plays

3-2 WTD

Freeze17171
04-29-2006, 09:30 AM
Since I can't parlay, I'm laying off Robredo, Massu, and Simon, I just can't back them at those odds. Just some value bets, Nadal to not win 2-0 at 2.59 and a small wager on Almagro at 6.90. Do I expect him to win? Not at all, but I think he has a better shot than anyone right now (including Federer). Young gun finally putting it together getting a shot at his bigtime countryman in Spain. You can bet that the arrogant Almagro wants this bad, and he really has nothing to lose.

Jaap
04-29-2006, 09:39 AM
Robredo x Massu x Simon.

betowiec
04-29-2006, 03:00 PM
riding that Tommy train, hoping Wawa won't steal my money

adding a value bet on Almagro $50 at 6


my biggest wager of the week is a good one

thank$$$$$$ Tommy

1-1 today, glad Tommy's bet was the winning one

TwistyServe
04-29-2006, 05:12 PM
Since I can't parlay, I'm laying off Robredo, Massu, and Simon, I just can't back them at those odds. Just some value bets, Nadal to not win 2-0 at 2.59 and a small wager on Almagro at 6.90. Do I expect him to win? Not at all, but I think he has a better shot than anyone right now (including Federer). Young gun finally putting it together getting a shot at his bigtime countryman in Spain. You can bet that the arrogant Almagro wants this bad, and he really has nothing to lose.

You can always do a manual parlay, which is what I do sometimes.. Say put 3 units on Robredo since thats an early match. If you win that than put 4.5 units on Massu... You thereby have Massu x Robredo.

TwistyServe
04-29-2006, 05:28 PM
Two for me:

Almagro over Nadal @6.9

Massu 2-0 over Phau, @1.74

Risky plays

3-2 WTD

Massu wins 2-0.... Almagro about to bite the dust.

4-2 WTD.

Horatio Caine
04-29-2006, 05:33 PM
Massu 2-0 @ 1.61 - Massu has lost 14 sets on clay in 2006 - 8 of those have been in defeats. He shouldn't lose to Phau in a month of Sundays so that leaves 6 sets dropped in 14 wins...5 of those 6 sets were dropped in his first 3 clay tournies in 2006, before March. He was just getting going. The other set was dopped to Di Mauro in R2 this week on a tiebreak.

That was the one to go for...even if Massu did struggle in the 2nd set...nice hit Twisty :yeah:

Massu x Simon @ 1.83 - small stake

Something clearly wrong with Simon early on...he retired. Won on Massu as expected. Take a 0.5 unit profit on this bet.

TwistyServe
04-29-2006, 05:44 PM
Almagro loses. He had his chances in the first set oh well, small stakes on a value bet doesn't damper the day.

4-3 WTD

Freeze17171
04-29-2006, 06:07 PM
Yeah, but the manual parlay involved me being awake for the matches. Nice run Almagro...