Fearsome Friday! [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Fearsome Friday!

Horatio Caine
04-27-2006, 04:33 PM
:devil:

Barcelona QF match-ups as they come in:


Almagro v Ferrero

Wawrinka v Karlovic


Casablanca QF match-ups as they come in:

Massu v Mahut
Phau v Vanek
Simon v Rochus C
Bracciali v Horna

Horatio Caine
04-27-2006, 04:34 PM
Not that struck on the card really:

Would go for Almagro over Ferrero - but revenge rule
Karlovic over Wawrinka?

I'd think Vanek would take out Phau but check out their h2h record :scared:

Freeze17171
04-27-2006, 06:20 PM
There should be a tennis prop "Will Ivo Karlovic be broken?"

coup3z
04-27-2006, 07:43 PM
no revenge here.... Almagro to continue his hot run @ 1.78

Andre♥
04-27-2006, 07:54 PM
Ferrero almost got eliminated by Albert Costa today...

And Almagro just destroyed one of the best clay courters in the world (even with his serve problems, Coria is still very dangerous).

Almagro all the way and I may put a small wage on Almagro over Nadal, if this match happens.

TwistyServe
04-27-2006, 07:59 PM
Ferrero almost got eliminated by Albert Costa today...

And Almagro just detroyed one of the best clay courters in the world (even with his serve problems, Coria is still very dangerous).

Almagro all the way and I may put a small wage on Almagro over Nadal, if this match happens.

I think if Coria had his old serve Almagro would still have won today. Coria had only 2 BPs in the match and couldn't break serve. Of course tough to say something like that, maybe Coria was down about losing so many games on his serve he couldn't focus on his return game.

Either way, very impressed with Nico but probably won't play him against Ferrero unless odds are too juicy.

Andre♥
04-27-2006, 08:00 PM
Nadal vs Almagro will be a great match...

Jaap
04-27-2006, 08:28 PM
Taken Vanek x Massu for the moment.

Fancy Wawrinka over Karlovic depending on odds.

Horatio Caine
04-27-2006, 09:37 PM
From what i've been hearing, the noise in the Casablanca grounds has been adversely affecting some of the players - so I shall stay away from backing Vanek. Besides, it possible that Phau might win the match....check their h2h.

I am prepared to break my own rule - revenge rule. Almagro is hot right now - any player on the up often wins matches they wouldn't normally win purely because of high confidence. JCF has struggled this tourney and struggles these days with players similar to Almagro's style...I think I'll back Nico again - with a high stake if the odds are right.

Sambuca
04-27-2006, 10:20 PM
noise in casablanca grounds?? what's kind of noise?

Horatio Caine
04-27-2006, 11:12 PM
http://www.atptennis.com/en/blog/melzer.asp

Not the only player to complain either.

George_Hanson
04-27-2006, 11:14 PM
From what i've been hearing, the noise in the Casablanca grounds has been adversely affecting some of the players - so I shall stay away from backing Vanek. Besides, it possible that Phau might win the match....check their h2h.

I am prepared to break my own rule - revenge rule. Almagro is hot right now - any player on the up often wins matches they wouldn't normally win purely because of high confidence. JCF has struggled this tourney and struggles these days with players similar to Almagro's style...I think I'll back Nico again - with a high stake if the odds are right.

:wavey: Jez we got the same rules and "revenge" is one of them. I don't have the stats for that, but I've been following tennis since some 10-15 years and all the results closely since about two years and I can say that when two players meet twice in - let's say - two weeks span, in ca. 70% of cases the score will be 1-1

George_Hanson
04-27-2006, 11:17 PM
Try to guess what happens tomorrow, 70% or 30%. I'm tempted to go for that 30%, which is a solid mathematical mistake (1.8-2.0 makes something like 60%-40%), so the revenge rule says that I got 30% chances of winning, while odds suggest that I have 60% chances. Maybe I'll bet against myself and againt the maths, who knows...

Horatio Caine
04-27-2006, 11:18 PM
Yeah I agree with that George ;)

My reasoning for this situation being different - Almagro is on fire and showing no signs of letting up...so easy this week. JCF has struggled hugely the last couple of rounds against opposition he shouldn't have been struggling against...he struggles against players that player similar to Almagro...he is not the same player he was from a couple of years back...

Tough call but I've missed enough chances the last couple of days and I believe that Almagro wins once more before tasting defeat.

George_Hanson
04-27-2006, 11:24 PM
Yeah I agree with that George ;)

My reasoning for this situation being different - Almagro is on fire and showing no signs of letting up...so easy this week. JCF has struggled hugely the last couple of rounds against opposition he shouldn't have been struggling against...he struggles against players that player similar to Almagro...he is not the same player he was from a couple of years back...

Tough call but I've missed enough chances the last couple of days and I believe that Almagro wins once more before tasting defeat.

That's why I'm leaning more towards Almagro. But the faster the red-hot train gets, the easier it takes for it to crash. Damn, I always kick myself for being too cautious.

Horatio Caine
04-27-2006, 11:24 PM
Can I tempt anyone with my beloved stats? :p

Almagro is 14/3 in ATP clay matches this year (exc. qualies) - one of the best records so far this season, and he hasn't played dummies. He is 6/0 vs ANY top 50 player (4/0 vs 21-50 i.e. JCF range).

Ferrero is only 8/4 on clay - 3/2 vs players between 51-100. Not convincing and his form is not convincing even now.

George_Hanson
04-27-2006, 11:25 PM
But the kid has the game, no doubt about it.

Horatio Caine
04-27-2006, 11:30 PM
That's why I'm leaning more towards Almagro. But the faster the red-hot train gets, the easier it takes for it to crash. Damn, I always kick myself for being too cautious.

:lol: I got too cautious today. Had leans on Almagro and Robredo. Robredo hasn't finished yet but he looked good when they left court for the day :rolleyes:

I will back Nico...besides I only back what I can afford to lose so it wouldn't be too bad he lost.

But seriously, apart from the revenge rule, can anyone suggest any other reasons why JCF could feasibly win? :shrug:

....talking about the revenge rule, Massu defied it twice this year already :lol:

Horatio Caine
04-27-2006, 11:33 PM
We also have Bracciali vs Horna in Casablanca - a revenge match. Myabe that one will be the one that is revenge :devil:

As to Almagro - he might have an easier match with JCF anyway. Their last match was the start of his streak so he probably wasn't playing / psychologically as good as he is now anyway :shrug:

Mr Flamboyant
04-27-2006, 11:34 PM
Gotta go with the guy in white hot form .. and that's Almagro .. Ferrero's been doing enough to win the matches he should win but that won't be enough to stop Almagro.

Get on him, he WILL win .. Anything over $1.50 is well worth the punt IMO

Horatio Caine
04-28-2006, 12:02 AM
Okay, it has to be done...I don't see why he can't repeat his win from a few weeks back:

Almagro over Ferrero @ 1.72 - large stake

Analysis: http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/showthread.php?p=22658&posted=1#post22658

Good luck! :yeah:

Ays25
04-28-2006, 03:45 AM
simon over fixer c. rochus @ 1.75
ferrero over almagro @ 2.02
horna over bracciali @ 1.55
massu over mahut @ 1.40

TennisMan85
04-28-2006, 04:04 AM
my take is Match:

Match: S. Wawrinka Vs I. Karlovic

Pick: S. Wawrinka to win 2-0

SwiSha
04-28-2006, 05:46 AM
Karlovic over Wawrinka @ 2.45

good luck

tennis_spider
04-28-2006, 06:12 AM
Juan Carlos Ferrero over Nico ALMAGRO

This will be easy for Ferrero . Just watch & enjoy :)

Anders
04-28-2006, 09:35 AM
WTD: 4-5 +1.00 units

Pending:

Verdasco +167 o Robredo (1)

Adding:

Almagro -130 o JCF (1)
Karlovic +149 o Wawrinka (1)

olix
04-28-2006, 09:50 AM
Taking Wawrinka over Karlovic here, good value on Wawrinka, he can deal with big servers and I've got to get off the Karlovic train, he can't win four maches on clay in a row.

sports freak
04-28-2006, 10:31 AM
Okay, it has to be done...I don't see why he can't repeat his win from a few weeks back:

Almagro over Ferrero @ 1.72 - large stake

Analysis: http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/showthread.php?p=22658&posted=1#post22658

Good luck! :yeah:

Good luck Jez,like Nico aswell all the best

sports freak
04-28-2006, 10:41 AM
Going with Jez after looking at his stats he threw out of Almagro/JCF clay court record this yr,damn impressive!!!

30 units on Nicolas Almagro 1.70 over Juan Carlos Ferrero - JCF last game against Costa wasnt to impressive,still abit soft mentally while it looks like Nico is a TOUGH NUT!!!

20 Units on Christophe Rochus 2.10 over Giles Simon - Rochus impressive last couple of games!!!

Good luck- Other leans on Mahut 3.50/Bracciali 2.75/Vanek 1.65,put some small units on the 3 pics aswell,since there's calue in them!!!!

bad gambler
04-28-2006, 10:51 AM
Rochus to beat Simon - $2.30

free money

good luck

Horatio Caine
04-28-2006, 11:22 AM
:bigclap: Freak - good luck mate...I hope my stats mean something :scared:

Horatio Caine
04-28-2006, 11:27 AM
Man I'm nervous about this match...come on Nico Almagro!! :yeah:

I also think Karlo has a decent chance if he has energy left in his arms to continue his incredible serving :lol:

Horatio Caine
04-28-2006, 11:31 AM
Oops...they're nearly finished - didn't realise! :lol:

betowiec
04-28-2006, 11:36 AM
Robredo to send the ugly one home

i don't care robredo was on the court for 5 games already today, if anything it was only a good warm up for him

Horatio Caine
04-28-2006, 11:43 AM
Robredo to send the ugly one home

i don't care robredo was on the court for 5 games already today, if anything it was only a good warm up for him

Yeah I thought that but actually Sexy could win this one. The conditions are relatively fast and he is a much better player than he was when they last met. Robredo traditionally struggles with players who are handy at the net - Stepanek may not serve and volley, but he will come in as often as possible, especially as he could be running out of energy. Sexy is also not bad at the back of the court and has a good return game.

Horatio Caine
04-28-2006, 11:53 AM
That's why I'm leaning more towards Almagro. But the faster the red-hot train gets, the easier it takes for it to crash. Damn, I always kick myself for being too cautious.

This train is tightly packed too...only come across two people in these forumst rating Ferrero - GWH and Tennis_Spider

betowiec
04-28-2006, 11:54 AM
Yeah I thought that but actually Sexy could win this one. The conditions are relatively fast and he is a much better player than he was when they last met. Robredo traditionally struggles with players who are handy at the net - Stepanek may not serve and volley, but he will come in as often as possible, especially as he could be running out of energy. Sexy is also not bad at the back of the court and has a good return game.

i see your point, it's not gonna be easy as sexy has been playing quite well this week

Freeze17171
04-28-2006, 11:56 AM
I think Radek has a better shot than what the line is giving him. The faster clay suits his game better than most clay surfaces, and he is definitely a capable on any clay. He's 6-1 lifetime at Barcelona losing only to Nadal last year in the semis 6-2 7-5. He's also got the mental advantage big time over the occasional sporadic Robredo, Radek is absolutely rock solid when it matters most. I've backed him every round as a dog and he has fought back being a set down in both, coming back from the brink against Volandri. Robredo looks in good form as of late though.

On a side note, Stan deserves a medal for breaking Ivo twice in one match.

betowiec
04-28-2006, 11:59 AM
I think Radek has a better shot than what the line is giving him. The faster clay suits his game better than most clay surfaces, and he is definitely a capable on any clay. He's 6-1 lifetime at Barcelona losing only to Nadal last year in the semis 6-2 7-5. He's also got the mental advantage big time over the occasional sporadic Robredo, Radek is absolutely rock solid when it matters most. I've backed him every round as a dog and he has fought back being a set down in both, coming back from the brink against Volandri. Robredo looks in good form as of late though.

On a side note, Stan deserves a medal for breaking Ivo twice in one match.


i would like odds of 1.7~ on Robredo a little bit better, but still took him at 1.524, just hoping will deliver

Freeze17171
04-28-2006, 12:01 PM
Yeah, I do think the edge goes to Robredo, if Radek decides to start slow again, it will be much more difficult to win two sets in a row off Tommy than that nutjob PHM. As you said earlier, I think him finishing the match with Verdasco gives him a nice warmup.

EDIT: Looks like the public is pounding Tommy, he's at 1.50 now.

olix
04-28-2006, 12:06 PM
I think robredo sucks when he's least expected, he has these great matches and fails to follow up on them.
On the other hand Stepanek is a good dog, especially under these circumstances, what scares me is that he's been a dog twice before this tournament and I don't know if he could pull through for third time in a row :)

betowiec
04-28-2006, 01:52 PM
Robredo to send the ugly one home

i don't care robredo was on the court for 5 games already today, if anything it was only a good warm up for him


looks like he had another warm up but this time a little bit longer, one that lasted less than 67minutessssssssssss

thank$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ Tommy

TwistyServe
04-28-2006, 02:17 PM
Just woke up.. too bad I missed Robredo's line cause he was still playing Verdasco as of last night.. oh well..

Add: Almagro over JCF @1.75

TwistyServe
04-28-2006, 07:07 PM
Almagro over JCF @1.75

Almagro is one tough cookie when he's hot!

3-2 WTD.

Freeze17171
04-28-2006, 07:09 PM
I wonder what the line will be against Nadal, I think he has a shot.

Horatio Caine
04-28-2006, 07:10 PM
Almagro over Ferrero @ 1.72 - large stake

Well done and thanks Nico!! :yeah:

Thanks Twist for the jinxing :worship:

George - no revenge rule today as Lucho also lost again to Bracciali. Have to watch out with the next revenge matches :lol:

TwistyServe
04-28-2006, 07:27 PM
Bracc is making a big run on clay, similar to what he did last year on grass lol.. too bad its in challenger like tournaments only

sports freak
04-29-2006, 12:09 AM
Bracc is making a big run on clay, similar to what he did last year on grass lol.. too bad its in challenger like tournaments only

The kid has got some talent!!!

sports freak
04-29-2006, 12:11 AM
Thanks Nico for being a TOUGH NUT,n Rochus for choking!!!!Poor Radek ran out of juice,his last 3 games b4 Tommy were greuling n wouldve paid the toll,as it did!!!