Monte-Carlo Tuesday [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Monte-Carlo Tuesday

Bilbo
04-17-2006, 07:23 PM
3 plays for Tuesday...

fair play to Andreev over Ljubo - $2.00

fair play to Moya over Gonzo - $2.00

fair play to Hanescu over LaLo - $1.60

gl

TwistyServe
04-17-2006, 07:25 PM
Carried over from Monday:

Hanescu over FLo @1.63

Andreev over Ljub @1.99


1-2 WTD

Andre♥
04-17-2006, 07:26 PM
Why is everybody liking Andreev?

He lost last week against Safin and Ljubicic can play as good as Safin right now in clay (Of course, Safin is better in clay than Ljubicic, but he's not still at 100%).

Fair play to Ljubicic @1.95 in Betfair

Liking too:

Starace over Mahut

Safin over Mathieu

Massu over Ferrer

Hanescu over Lopez

dbnumberone
04-17-2006, 07:29 PM
Bet to win a unit on C.Rochus
Pay the premium odds for this or add him to your pick & make it a parlay
*free money*!
This Balleret, just lost, in straight sets, on clay, to Martin Slanar, currently ranked 1042
c'mon now!

Dollars & Cents
04-17-2006, 07:34 PM
I'm not tempted with any of those yet - nothing as standout as Acasuso was today. It's early days and maybe the value still lies in combining some of the mis-matches of R1. Apart from Vliegen I wouldn't say there was anything surprising today. I'll go for another treble tomorrow:

Coria(1.29) x Murray(1.40) x Serra(1.36) @ 2.46 (Paddy Power)

Will look into some singles later - but first thoughts are not to bother hunting as plenty of those opportunities will become available from Wednesday onwards.

Good luck.

Nimrodg
04-17-2006, 07:40 PM
Recomnding to stay away from C.Rochus match. Balleret is a futures player, his best result this year is a semi-final in F3 tournament. But - he got the home crowd(he is from Monaco) and in the qualies he defeated Bjorkman 7-6 6-3 and Portas 4-6 7-6 6-4
C.Rohus is a very inconsistent player. Last year for example, he lost to Fogues in Barcelona.

Freeze17171
04-17-2006, 07:44 PM
How do you know, Ljubo hasn't played in a clay tourney since July. His serve isn't nearly as effective on clay. Safin is a class above Ljubo on clay even in his current condition. Andreev was up two breaks on Safin early in the first and should have won that first set. He is a good clay courter and made the finals in his last two clay court ATP tourneys prior to Valencia, winning one of them.

I'm with you on all three of your plays bilbo!

GL guys...

Jaap
04-17-2006, 07:54 PM
Andreev.

Coria x Serra x Davydenko.

dbnumberone
04-17-2006, 08:00 PM
Recomnding to stay away from C.Rochus match. Balleret is a futures player, his best result this year is a semi-final in F3 tournament. But - he got the home crowd(he is from Monaco) and in the qualies he defeated Bjorkman 7-6 6-3 and Portas 4-6 7-6 6-4
C.Rohus is a very inconsistent player. Last year for example, he lost to Fogues in Barcelona.

just my opinion, but those aren't impressive wins
he beat an over the hill hard courter & a washed up 32 year old - dream quallie draw...
of course, I've been wrong before :)
gl w/ whatever you decide to play

Nimrodg
04-17-2006, 08:03 PM
Isn't it a bit dangerous to back Coria?
I mean, he barely played this year and when he played on clay he almost lost against Vanek (Final set TB), losing to Ramirez-Hidalgo and Di-Mauro in straight.
Although he has good record against Misha, his results this year are very poor

TwistyServe
04-17-2006, 08:06 PM
I think Coria is acceptable risk. He's knocked out the kninks in his serve (or so we hope) and is alway solid on the baseline. This first match will tell us if he's really back or if he's DFing again. 1.33 is an acceptable risk in a parlay id say.

Jaap
04-17-2006, 08:21 PM
Youzhny is crap on clay. Coria should eat him up as long as he gets that serve in.

Freeze17171
04-17-2006, 09:01 PM
Like we've seen so far from JCF and Gaudio both dominating, Coria will step up his game in Monte Carlo. He's made the final here three years in a row, and Youzny hasn't been much of a threat on any surface, let alone clay. Coria should roll him in two.

Horatio Caine
04-17-2006, 09:13 PM
Can't see Coria losing - Youzhny is not a threat to many players on clay. Not racing to back Serra though - he has been on a downer on clay for a while and P'dorn could perhaps trouble him.

Not sure why everyone is jumping on Andreev. He was extremely poor in the big clay events last year (R1 @ Monte C, Rome, Hamburg and R3 FO). Ljubicic has been consistently good in the biggest events since October...he has more than enough weapons to at least stay with the Russian :shrug:

Nimrodg
04-17-2006, 09:18 PM
O.K, thanks for this.
I added Coria to the Parlay
Murray + Serra + Hanescu at least 1 set + Coria @ 2.64

Freeze17171
04-17-2006, 09:22 PM
Backing Murray on clay? I dunno about that one yet.

As for Igor/Ivan, the more I think about it, the less I'm liking Andreev here. Ivan's been playing too well as of late, and could make the transition to clay well enough. I might hedge my bet later since the line on Andreev has moved enough where I wouldn't lose anything betting back on Ivan.

Nimrodg
04-17-2006, 09:27 PM
Backing Murray on clay? I dunno about that one yet.

As for Igor/Ivan, the more I think about it, the less I'm liking Andreev here. Ivan's been playing too well as of late, and could make the transition to clay well enough. I might hedge my bet later since the line on Andreev has moved enough where I wouldn't lose anything betting back on Ivan.

He grew up in Barcelona tennis academy and according to what he say his favourite surface is clay

Cornincrap
04-17-2006, 09:31 PM
Hanescu @ 1.66

Freeze17171
04-17-2006, 09:33 PM
Well he could very well win, he's playing a journeyman qualifier, but he's just 1-4 in the last year on clay playing mostly challengers and 6-9 lifetime.

shotgun
04-17-2006, 09:34 PM
I'm going for Massu (has been more consistent than Ferrer lately, good results on clay and Ferrer is allegedly injured) and a small play on Santoro (Berdych can lose to anyone on a bad day).

Horatio Caine
04-17-2006, 09:34 PM
Nimmy - Murray may say his favourite surface is clay, but he lacks the physical strength to compete with much of the top 50 and I doubt he will win more than a couple of rounds in any top clay event for a little while yet. I'll be surprised if he loses to Lisnard, but not shocked.

I liked Grosjean over Verdasco but his recent injuries make me scared of betting on him. He has a fantastic record vs lefties, does fine in Monte C and is okay on clay.

Staying away today...good luck everyone! :yeah:

Anders
04-17-2006, 10:43 PM
nothing else i like enough on tues apart from the 2 pending...

Verdasco +120 o Grosjean (1.5)
Andreev +115 o Ljubicic (1.5)

GL all

The Undertaker
04-17-2006, 11:06 PM
Stay away from Ljubicic - Andreev, Ivan played exetremly well in Davis Cup againts Austria on clay and he is in great shape.

I like Gilles Simon over Gabashivili, Russian lost to Sanguinetti in first round last week, while Simon played in finals.

Hansecu over Feliciano Lopez, Hanescu is pretty similar level to GGL who didn`t have any trouble with Pretty boy last week.

Deivid23
04-17-2006, 11:40 PM
Not sure why everyone is jumping on Andreev. He was extremely poor in the big clay events last year (R1 @ Monte C, Rome, Hamburg and R3 FO). Ljubicic has been consistently good in the biggest events since October...he has more than enough weapons to at least stay with the Russian :shrug:

It´s just a matter of time, Igor is maturing and he must be a huge force on clay soon enough, watch out

Freeze17171
04-18-2006, 01:05 AM
Adding Nadal to win Monte Carlo (2.45), at this point, I don't see anyone challenging the clay master.

betowiec
04-18-2006, 02:27 AM
since i already have a tiny play on ferrer from yesterday, i am taking Davydenko at very low odds 1.274 for $850 (odds are a bit higher than last week against Hernych) but i don't see him losing 2 times in a row in the first round. On top of that i won't be up for that match, so by the time i wake up it should be over

Mr Flamboyant
04-18-2006, 02:36 AM
Hehe .. yeah Kutafon, that's the key (being asleep during the match) cos following the live scores is the stuff heart attacks are made of (I had to endure Kiefer scraping home last night) !!

TwistyServe
04-18-2006, 02:37 AM
On top of that i won't be up for that match, so by the time i wake up it should be over


Thats the best thing man! I love these european tournaments.. Get to wake up and see the $$$ roll in.. of course its a shithouse when you wake up and realize you just lost $500 :lol:

Ays25
04-18-2006, 02:48 AM
since i already have a tiny play on ferrer from yesterday, i am taking Davydenko at very low odds 1.274 for $850 (odds are a bit higher than last week against Hernych) but i don't see him losing 2 times in a row in the first round. On top of that i won't be up for that match, so by the time i wake up it should be over

the last three times i bet on davy he just made me crazy..
breaks and gets broken straight back and so on..
he cant serve well atm just like coria.. he should win but there are a lot of easier 1.27 odds

my play is simon x starace @ 2.00

betowiec
04-18-2006, 02:58 AM
Hehe .. yeah Kutafon, that's the key (being asleep during the match) cos following the live scores is the stuff heart attacks are made of (I had to endure Kiefer scraping home last night) !!

it is a lot easier to see a score of 6:4 than following it and seeing players exchanging breaks

bad gambler
04-18-2006, 03:55 AM
Not sure why everyone is jumping on Andreev. He was extremely poor in the big clay events last year (R1 @ Monte C, Rome, Hamburg and R3 FO). Ljubicic has been consistently good in the biggest events since October...he has more than enough weapons to at least stay with the Russian :shrug:


I think drawing on Andreev's performances last year is misguided, it is fair to say he has improved his game two fold on all surfaces

No bet for me though - Ljubicic last year was disgraceful, the most obvious tank job against rochus but now that he is considered a top 5 player, don't think he will be pulling that type of stunt again

bad gambler
04-18-2006, 04:06 AM
Just the one for me today...

Grosjean to beat Verdasco - $1.85

be lucky

TwistyServe
04-18-2006, 07:05 AM
Adding two more:

Moya over Gonzo @1.909 - We know if they play 10 times Moya will probably win 5-6 times so its pretty much tossup, but this is Monte Carlo.. I give edge to Moya.. be it a small edge .. Moya is more consistent performer and Gonzo can sometimes missfire too much. Both prefer forehands so this will be an interesting match.

Grosjean over Verdasco @1.763 - Liked this play from the beginning but didn't know if Grosjean was healed up since he didnt play DC due to injury. Well Pinnacle allows for 2 played sets or bets void. Guess I'll take that chance. Huge edge to Grosjean since this is a french crowd! Remember how well he played againd Nadal at the french open!


1-2 WTD

Mario66
04-18-2006, 07:23 AM
3 plays for Tuesday...

fair play to Andreev over Ljubo - $2.00

fair play to Moya over Gonzo - $2.00

fair play to Hanescu over LaLo - $1.60

gl

Looks good mate, good luck! :yeah:

Nimrodg
04-18-2006, 07:26 AM
Simon + Massu + Gonzo + Grosjean @ 8.77

betowiec
04-18-2006, 10:08 AM
what a shitty start for me today thanks to Davy

now i am going with Ferrer for 1.5K at 1.855

Jaap
04-18-2006, 11:07 AM
Shitty Davydenko. Stupid bet anyway as there wasn't much value on him. I'm never doing him again at such odds. :rolleyes:

Now going for Andreev carried over from yesterday.

Also singles on Grosjean and Moya. Lets hope I can pull something back from today. :p

Ays25
04-18-2006, 12:28 PM
starace x simon bet @2.00 easily Won
but i made a huge mistake by putting all off it (0.5k) on rochus..
boy oh boy..

dbnumberone
04-18-2006, 01:07 PM
Recomnding to stay away from C.Rochus match. Balleret is a futures player, his best result this year is a semi-final in F3 tournament. But - he got the home crowd(he is from Monaco) and in the qualies he defeated Bjorkman 7-6 6-3 and Portas 4-6 7-6 6-4
C.Rohus is a very inconsistent player. Last year for example, he lost to Fogues in Barcelona.

lol, looks like you were right, this is no way to wake up in the morning
taking a break - gl all

Ays25
04-18-2006, 01:14 PM
lol rochus held serve just two times the whole match. what a waste of space.
never bet to a man who cant serve. (davydenko - rochus)

TwistyServe
04-18-2006, 03:30 PM
what a shitty start for me today thanks to Davy

now i am going with Ferrer for 1.5K at 1.855

Good one but careful of the chases :p

betowiec
04-18-2006, 04:21 PM
what a shitty start for me today thanks to Davy

now i am going with Ferrer for 1.5K at 1.855


too bad the pure profit is $432 (davy's loss was costly)

betowiec
04-18-2006, 04:22 PM
Good one but careful of the chases :p

true, but i had a small play on ferrer pending from yesterday, but b/c i lost on davy, decided to add a lot more to it

El Legenda
04-18-2006, 04:35 PM
No bet for me though - Ljubicic last year was disgraceful, the most obvious tank job against rochus but now that he is considered a top 5 player, don't think he will be pulling that type of stunt again
:lol:

TwistyServe
04-18-2006, 05:36 PM
Bad start all loses going down in 3 setters. Hope my luck changes soon.

Grosjean wins
Andreev loses
Moya loses
Hanescu loses

2-5 WTD

Horatio Caine
04-18-2006, 07:40 PM
Can't see Coria losing - Youzhny is not a threat to many players on clay. Not racing to back Serra though - he has been on a downer on clay for a while and P'dorn could perhaps trouble him.

Not sure why everyone is jumping on Andreev. He was extremely poor in the big clay events last year (R1 @ Monte C, Rome, Hamburg and R3 FO). Ljubicic has been consistently good in the biggest events since October...he has more than enough weapons to at least stay with the Russian

:haha: Ljubo can win on virtually any surface now...and yes, I struggle to believe it at times.

BG - I don't see anything wrong with looking at 2005 performances. Andreev is still proving that he can't string many wins together in the events that really matter. Also, he lost 6/1 5 times in a row in the deciding sets of AMS matches last year...this 6/2 3rd set loss today further proves the point that he isn't much better he was in 2005. :zzz: Wake me up when he starts to threaten the big boys...you too Deivid ;)


Murray may say his favourite surface is clay, but he lacks the physical strength to compete with much of the top 50 and I doubt he will win more than a couple of rounds in any top clay event for a little while yet. I'll be surprised if he loses to Lisnard, but not shocked.

Murray playing like a :retard: again :rolleyes: Losing to Lisnard :tape: :haha: :haha:

I liked Grosjean over Verdasco but his recent injuries make me scared of betting on him. He has a fantastic record vs lefties, does fine in Monte C and is okay on clay.

Well played Sebbie :yeah:

Geez...did'nt bet any money today. Only had Hanescu hanging over from Monday...for all the good that did :rolleyes: :lol:

Good work to the guys who won money today :yeah:

Jaap
04-18-2006, 07:43 PM
What a crap day. :rolleyes:

Moya, Davydenko and Andreev. :mad: :mad:

TwistyServe
04-18-2006, 08:17 PM
What a crap day. :rolleyes:

Moya, Davydenko and Andreev. :mad: :mad:

I'm feeling you man. I got hammered today too but I think we'll recover... as long as u didnt beat the house today :)