Monte-Carlo Monday [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Monte-Carlo Monday

DeccyB123
04-16-2006, 12:20 AM
I know this is early and there are no lines up yet, but I want some opinions. Anyone have thoughts on the following?

Ferrer v. Massu (Ferrer maybe injured?)
Gonzalez v. Moya

As well as this, is Davydenko 100% fit heading into this?

Any outright bets anyway?

TwistyServe
04-16-2006, 04:35 AM
Really like certain matchups..

Grosjean over Verdasco - mild lean
Ferrero over Tursunov - mild lean
Chela over Rusedski - strong lean
Andreev over Ljubicic - mild lean
Serra over Srichaphan - strong lean
Hanescu over Flopez - strong lean
Robredo over Horna - strong lean
Kiefer over Mirnyi - mild lean

bad gambler
04-16-2006, 07:21 AM
When it comes to dirt, Nadal is king everyone else are minors

Nadal on outright or no bet, simple as that

bournerdan
04-16-2006, 07:33 AM
I know this is early and there are no lines up yet, but I want some opinions. Anyone have thoughts on the following?

Ferrer v. Massu (Ferrer maybe injured?)
Gonzalez v. Moya

As well as this, is Davydenko 100% fit heading into this?

Any outright bets anyway?


Depeding on the odds, I quite like Gonzo over Moya......Assuming Moya will be favourite that is.....
Certainly wouldn't bet on Ferrer V Massu, toss of a coin kind of match up and like you say ferrer may or may not still be suffering from those shoulder problems.....Also, I can't see how Davydenko can possibly be 100% fit after last week......

Horatio Caine
04-16-2006, 01:40 PM
Hmmm...

Twisty - I've heard that Grosjean and Hanescu are still suffering injury problems.

I'd favour Massu over Ferrer - just look at how well Massu is playing on clay right now. Ferrer might not make it to Monte C anyway.

Moya over Gonzo
Tursunov over Ferrero?
Chela over Rusedski
Andreev over Ljubo (if odds are ridiculous)

Believe it or not, I think Henman has a good shot at beating Gaudio, particularly as the Brit performs better there than anywhere else on the clay.

Acasuso over Volandri?
O Rochus over Monfils?
Seppi over Sanguinetti

Jaap
04-16-2006, 05:42 PM
Andreev over Ljubucic @ 1.91.

Getting on that early. ;)

Action Jackson
04-16-2006, 05:45 PM
Hmmm...

Twisty - I've heard that Grosjean and Hanescu are still suffering injury problems.

A semi- injured Hanescu should still beat LaLo.

Andre♥
04-16-2006, 05:55 PM
Liking:

Berdych over Santoro
Massu over Ferrer
Ljubicic over Andreev
Martin over Karlovic
Grosjean over Verdasco
Chela over Rusedski
Serra over Srichaphan
Hanescu over Feli Lopez
Starace over Mahut
Acasuso over Volandri
Di Mauro over Wawrinka
Robredo over Horna
Seppi over Sanguinetti
Pashanski over Llodra
Nieminen over Vliegen
Benneteau over Hernych

The list is huge, but is there any game that you would advice me not to bet on?

coup3z
04-16-2006, 06:21 PM
Pashanski & Beto Martin - moneymakers

Freeze17171
04-16-2006, 08:02 PM
Karlovic has no chance on clay anymore, Martin all the way
Seppi over Sanguinetti
Chela over Rudsedski (big)

I'm sure I'll find more when the odds come out at Pinny

Bilbo
04-16-2006, 08:04 PM
only 1 play for tomorrow...

Beto Martin over Ivo Karlovic - $1.44

gl

Jaap
04-16-2006, 09:25 PM
Acasuso to beat Volandri @ 5/6(1.83).

Good luck.

bad gambler
04-16-2006, 09:31 PM
Acasuso to beat Volandri @ 5/6(1.83).

Good luck.


mate you getting ripped off, you can get $2+ in most places for chucho

Andre♥
04-16-2006, 09:34 PM
mate you getting ripped off, you can get $2+ in most places for chucho

I can have Chucho for 2.00 right now at Betfair, but I'm waiting for at least 2.10.

The good thing about Betfair is that there is some dumb guys who lay and back stupid bets. And as Volandri is more known than Acasuso, let's wait for a dumb guy... :angel:

bad gambler
04-16-2006, 09:36 PM
Andreev over Ljubucic @ 1.91.

Getting on that early. ;)


:confused:

mate time for you to do away with whatever book you are using, again andreev is at $2+ in most places

Andre♥
04-16-2006, 09:43 PM
:confused:

mate time for you to do away with whatever book you are using, again andreev is at $2+ in most places

In fact, I can get Ljubicic with these odds and Andreev with @2.20.

Jaap
04-16-2006, 09:47 PM
What does everyone use then? :confused:

I have an account with Paddy power, mainly for the football. What do you reccomend for tennis?

Andre♥
04-16-2006, 09:49 PM
What does everyone use then? :confused:

I have an account with Paddy power, mainly for the football. What do you reccomend for tennis?

Betfair or Pinnacle if you only use singles.

Gamebookers if you use parlays.

Jaap
04-16-2006, 09:50 PM
Betfair or Pinnacle if you only use singles.

Gamebookers if you use parlays.
Cheers.

bad gambler
04-16-2006, 10:03 PM
What does everyone use then? :confused:

I have an account with Paddy power, mainly for the football. What do you reccomend for tennis?


for singles - pinnacle

for parlays - centrebet

TwistyServe
04-16-2006, 10:15 PM
Pinnacle has usually one of the better odds.

Anders
04-16-2006, 10:39 PM
YTD: 94-110 +36.46 units

Monte Carlo

Robredo $1.67 o Horna (1.5 units)
Verdasco +120 o Grosjean (1.5)
Andreev +115 o Ljubicic (1.5)
Acasuso +110 o Volandri (1.5)
Sanguinetti +200 o Seppi (1.5)

Parlay:

Martin/Kiefer -104 (1.5)

GL all

Dollars & Cents
04-16-2006, 10:47 PM
for singles - pinnacle

for parlays - centrebet

I've never used Pinnacle for tennis. They have good margins but I don't like their retirement rule. Am I wrong?

I know retirements in terms of bets are rare (well in most cases :p) but I prefer consistency - and for me that is void at whatever stage of the match.

Dollars & Cents
04-16-2006, 10:49 PM
For tomorrow so far:

Volandri v Acasuso(2.00) @ Bet365
Martin(1.40) x Kiefer(1.33) x Chela(1.16) @ 2.16 (Bet365)

Good luck

Freeze17171
04-17-2006, 03:26 AM
So far, Hanescu (-160) over F Lopez
Massu (+106) over Ferrer

sports freak
04-17-2006, 03:38 AM
mate you getting ripped off, you can get $2+ in most places for chucho

WTF Chucho $2+ vs Pipo,geez the books are being nice,Pound that puppy all the way to the bank,make sure you get a reciept with a smile!!!

TwistyServe
04-17-2006, 03:41 AM
So far for me:

Hanescu over FLopez @1.637

Hanescu was "injured" back playing Davis cup but since he's pulled a 3 setter against Moya on HC, and won all his matches at the houston ex beating Spadea, Vicente, Monaco, and others. I'd say he's healed enough to beat Lopez.

0-0 WTD.

sports freak
04-17-2006, 03:43 AM
YTD: 94-110 +36.46 units

Monte Carlo

Robredo $1.67 o Horna (1.5 units)
Verdasco +120 o Grosjean (1.5)
Andreev +115 o Ljubicic (1.5)
Acasuso +110 o Volandri (1.5)
Sanguinetti +200 o Seppi (1.5)

Parlay:

Martin/Kiefer -104 (1.5)

GL all

Good luck Anders,some very nice pics!!Only one that could go wayward is the OLD Italian Stallions Sangy who might be his last season n is on his last legs imo!!!

sports freak
04-17-2006, 03:44 AM
For tomorrow so far:

Volandri v Acasuso(2.00) @ Bet365
Martin(1.40) x Kiefer(1.33) x Chela(1.16) @ 2.16 (Bet365)

Good luck

Love it,good luck!!!!!

TwistyServe
04-17-2006, 04:34 AM
Add:

Andreev over Ljub @1.99

TwistyServe
04-17-2006, 06:36 AM
Add:

Pash over Llodra @1.41

Odds are pretty low but Llodra is 0-6 in his previous clay matches and really his style isn't suited for clay. He's 17-32 on clay since 2000, and it would be a true insult to Pashanksi if he loses to a clay scrub like Lllodra. Low odds but I think Pash should be around 1.25 for this match hence theres some value in here.

TwistyServe
04-17-2006, 06:45 AM
Looks like andreev and hanescu matches play tuesday maybe.. dont see it on OOP

Mr Flamboyant
04-17-2006, 06:51 AM
Pashanski X Keifer @ $1.80 .. solid

Mr Flamboyant
04-17-2006, 07:12 AM
Any takers for Nalbandian ..? third seed, yet noone seems to want him in their parlays .. what's the word on his matchup with Malisse?

Also Gaudio Gaston vs Henman .. the latter looms as a sitting duck on clay surely?

Freeze17171
04-17-2006, 08:00 AM
Oops, both of my picks aren't playing today...

As for Henman, he's no slouch on clay and reached the quarters two years ago and the semis three years ago here. Gaston isn't exactly playing well right now and backing him as a big favorite is sure way to cause yourself anxiety.

Eh, I wanted to back Boris but I just can't do it with those odds. He can never get the job done easily. Llodra has had results on clay (FO 2004) and his record recently on clay sucks, but he has lost to quality clay courters.

Jaap
04-17-2006, 08:03 AM
Also Gaudio Gaston vs Henman .. the latter looms as a sitting duck on clay surely?
Henman is decent on clay and gives some of the clay court players trouble with his style of play which they don't see very often on tour. Also Henman has a good record in Monte Carlo and Gaudio doesn't do as well here as he does in other clay court events.

I'm not going to touch it though because I'm not sure what form or fitness either player is in.

Freeze17171
04-17-2006, 08:07 AM
Playing Rochus (1.662) over Monfils - Gael scares me with his "ability" to lose in the 1st round to anyone, or run an entire tourney against quality players. I'm just banking on the fact that he is struggling like heck right now losing 9 of his last 10 matches, and Rochus is not a player you want to be facing when you're struggling.

DeccyB123
04-17-2006, 08:16 AM
Going:

Horna @ 2.3

Why does everyone have such strong Robredo leans?

Mr Flamboyant
04-17-2006, 08:27 AM
Ended up taking Keifer X Stepanek .. (@ $1.72) Both ranked in top 15, with Stepanek playing a complete and utter unknown (ranked 175th in the world) who's only hit on clay was a withdrawl last week (en route to a certain straight sets loss).

Good luck gents ..

Freeze17171
04-17-2006, 08:28 AM
Going:

Horna @ 2.3

Why does everyone have such strong Robredo leans?

Not sure, Robredo has been crap as of late, going 3-7 in his last 10 and hasn't played a clay tourney since Sept. Horna just had an impressive win in Acapulco too.

bad gambler
04-17-2006, 09:07 AM
Going:

Horna @ 2.3

Why does everyone have such strong Robredo leans?


I like Lucho a lot as well :)

Nimrodg
04-17-2006, 09:28 AM
Chelsea + Kiefer + Chela + Nalbandian @ 2.23
Ollie Rochus + Vliegen + Korolev + Henman @ 35.1 :p

Jaap
04-17-2006, 09:31 AM
Acasuso to beat Volandri @ 5/6(1.83).

Good luck.
Good start even if it wasn't at that price everyone else got him at. :p

bad gambler
04-17-2006, 09:33 AM
Horna to beat Robredo - $2.30

good luck

Freeze17171
04-17-2006, 09:53 AM
Jumping on the Lucho train...

Horna (2.36) over Robredo

coup3z
04-17-2006, 09:58 AM
Henman (+4games) over Gaudio @ 1,80

TwistyServe
04-17-2006, 10:14 AM
Ouch bad start already.. Pash lost to a guy thats 0-6 on clay

0-1 WTD.

Bilbo
04-17-2006, 10:20 AM
only 1 play for tomorrow...

Beto Martin over Ivo Karlovic - $1.44

gl

win

TwistyServe
04-17-2006, 10:25 AM
Hmm everyones on Horna for some reason...

Bilbo
04-17-2006, 10:26 AM
Hmm everyones on Horna for some reason...

I would have taken Robredo if I had to choose one

betowiec
04-17-2006, 10:32 AM
low odds on Seppi (1.42) but i am taking him over david sanguinetti

TwistyServe
04-17-2006, 10:37 AM
Peer pressure:

I'll add a small one on Horna @2.333 and small one on Seppi @1.407

TwistyServe
04-17-2006, 10:38 AM
low odds on Seppi (1.42) but i am taking him over david sanguinetti

Aye I like Seppi too! Small odds so easy to get burned lol. I'll try one more small odd play.

Mr Flamboyant
04-17-2006, 10:48 AM
Anyone else like Stepanek? took him with Keifer on the basis he's against a bloke with just three matches under his belt in 2006 and ranked 176th in the world (Korolev)..

betowiec
04-17-2006, 11:41 AM
Aye I like Seppi too! Small odds so easy to get burned lol. I'll try one more small odd play.


didn't you have lower odds on boris pash..

nobody on David Ferrer, is he still injured?

TwistyServe
04-17-2006, 01:40 PM
didn't you have lower odds on boris pash..

nobody on David Ferrer, is he still injured?

Yes I did, and I got burned lol.. But seppi made it back.

Nimrodg
04-17-2006, 02:24 PM
Chelsea + Kiefer + Chela + Nalbandian @ 2.23
Ollie Rochus + Vliegen + Korolev + Henman @ 35.1 :p

Well Korolev was close :rolleyes:
the safe one is on the good way, chelsea and chela should do their work

Mr Flamboyant
04-17-2006, 02:36 PM
[QUOTE=Mr Flamboyant]Ended up taking Keifer X Stepanek .. (@ $1.72) Both ranked in top 15, with Stepanek playing a complete and utter unknown (ranked 175th in the world) who's only hit on clay was a withdrawl last week (en route to a certain straight sets loss).

Bet w-w-w-won...!

PHHHHEEW!! Wow, what a rollercoaster ride that was ..! Stepanek in a canter but Kiefer, well, at 0-3 in the deciding set things looked decidedly shakey..

Punting may be profitable but boy oh boy it's stressful sometimes..!!

Freeze17171
04-17-2006, 03:59 PM
Playing Rochus (1.662) over Monfils - Gael scares me with his "ability" to lose in the 1st round to anyone, or run an entire tourney against quality players. I'm just banking on the fact that he is struggling like heck right now losing 9 of his last 10 matches, and Rochus is not a player you want to be facing when you're struggling.

Win

Gael with his patented win 1st set then disappear and lose the next two easily. Way to hang in there Ollie.

Jumping on the Lucho train...

Horna (2.36) over Robredo

Lose

Lucho couldn't return worth crap, and got broken at the wrong times.

TwistyServe
04-17-2006, 04:19 PM
Yep I had a bad feeling about Lucho bandwagen oh well.. Tomorrow should be better


1-2 WTD.

Anders
04-17-2006, 07:48 PM
YTD: 94-110 +36.46 units

Monte Carlo

Robredo $1.67 o Horna (1.5 units)
Verdasco +120 o Grosjean (1.5)
Andreev +115 o Ljubicic (1.5)
Acasuso +110 o Volandri (1.5)
Sanguinetti +200 o Seppi (1.5)

Parlay:

Martin/Kiefer -104 (1.5)

3-1 +3.15 units, thanks to sports freak for the kind words - and u were dead right on sanguinetti too ...


twisted - no offence mate, but posting "1-2 for the wk" doesn't tell anyone anything ... 1-2 could be +0.68 units, it could be -5.13 units for all anyone knows... yeah, i know, I'm a pedantic prat... :devil:

TwistyServe
04-17-2006, 08:04 PM
3-1 +3.15 units, thanks to sports freak for the kind words - and u were dead right on sanguinetti too ...


twisted - no offence mate, but posting "1-2 for the wk" doesn't tell anyone anything ... 1-2 could be +0.68 units, it could be -5.13 units for all anyone knows... yeah, i know, I'm a pedantic prat... :devil:

Mainly because when I post it I dont know how many units I'm gonna put in the wager yet.. and rather than fuss around with editting posts and all that. I also do tend to increase bets depending on certain situations. I don't think theres many people that would follow my picks just because I'm up so and so units for the week :)

Horatio Caine
04-17-2006, 09:03 PM
I'll defend Twisty this once here - people reading these forums want to see someone who can pick winners. It is another thing to be able to bet successfully as well (and I know as I get bashed for it). I don't care whether such a person is 50 units up or down on the year - if you can get a 13/2 record but be down 5 units I'll still read. Most people can make up their own minds what and how to bet. :yeah:

Horatio Caine
04-17-2006, 09:05 PM
I didn't get to post my picks for today but I won on Seppi x Martin. Also had Kiefer x Hanescu...Victor plays tomorrow so my bad. My thanks to the 3 players today :yeah:

Good work everyone

dbnumberone
04-17-2006, 09:10 PM
3-1 +3.15 units, thanks to sports freak for the kind words - and u were dead right on sanguinetti too ...


twisted - no offence mate, but posting "1-2 for the wk" doesn't tell anyone anything ... 1-2 could be +0.68 units, it could be -5.13 units for all anyone knows... yeah, i know, I'm a pedantic prat... :devil:

Anders, if you want to quibble you came here & started posting a magic +28 units up...if you want to pick on someone start by editing your record once you started posting.

Anders
04-17-2006, 10:10 PM
twisted -
Didn't mean to start a war of words, maybe should have kept my trap shut...
but ... i'm talking about after... u mentioned u were 1-2 so far this week, surely u know how much you've wagered then?
I would def consider closely omeone's picks if i saw they were up + however many units for the season, but i wouldn't follow someone who said they were 104-63 for the year as it means absolutely nothing ....

judge -
of course people want to see who can pick winners. But if you are 2-1 u can still be down cash, backing chalk. why on earth would u follow someone who was 13-2 and down 5 units?? all it shows is that they back heavy chalk with no value whatsoever...

db -
when i came here, i introduced myself in a separate thread and said that my posting record was up for all to see at a number of other forums - still is too...

ok, will stop here, like i said, didn't mean to start a war but will stick by what i said, posting yer win/loss record without showing profitability is pointless in betting terms...

Deivid23
04-17-2006, 11:34 PM
posting yer win/loss record without showing profitability is pointless in betting terms...

:yeah:

Horatio Caine
04-18-2006, 08:07 PM
judge -
of course people want to see who can pick winners. But if you are 2-1 u can still be down cash, backing chalk. why on earth would u follow someone who was 13-2 and down 5 units?? all it shows is that they back heavy chalk with no value whatsoever...

I read virtually everyone's tips here but I rarely follow them. I couldn't care less if someone is losing money - if they have a 13/2 record in a week and made 2 horrendous bets...that doesn't bother me. 13/2 means they can pick well, consistently, at least for that week anyway. I'd take notice of that and perhaps take more confidence if they had similar ideas to me...could make a difference. That is my take on this discussion at any rate ;)

TwistyServe
04-18-2006, 08:16 PM
twisted -
Didn't mean to start a war of words, maybe should have kept my trap shut...
but ... i'm talking about after... u mentioned u were 1-2 so far this week, surely u know how much you've wagered then?
I would def consider closely omeone's picks if i saw they were up + however many units for the season, but i wouldn't follow someone who said they were 104-63 for the year as it means absolutely nothing ....
..

As a weekly record I dont think it matters. Maybe someone is 5-20 but they chased most their loses so they're still up 5 units.. Maybe someone is 50-20 but they have some horrendious staking which puts them down 20 units for the year. That doesn't mean their tip isn't good.

I know where you're getting at but I think the best determination of a successful tipper is the win-lost record and the average odds. Staking is an individual thing and doesn't really constituate if the tip is good or not.

Moreso I just started posting a weekly record and I'll probably do a season record starting next season. I got a late start this year as its my first :)

Anders
04-18-2006, 09:44 PM
judge - once again u make no sense to me... 13-2 doesn't mean they can pick well if they're losing money - betting is all about value, not picking winners

twisted - weekly, no, it doesn't matter, u r right there, everyone has swings and roundabouts and the tennis season is a true marathon.
I sort of agree with the next part, but their tips aren't good if their money management isn't good also.

I know where you're getting at but I think the best determination of a successful tipper is the win-lost record and the average odds. Staking is an individual thing and doesn't really constituate if the tip is good or not.
Disagree. Again, the W-L record means nothing, only the profit/loss record. If someone is continually losing money by staking 2-4 units on heavy chalk and not winning percentage-wise enough to cover what they are laying to me constitutes a bad tip/tipster.

I know I'm coming across as a pedantic prick and will get lots of haters for doing so, it's just that nothing pisses me off more than a swag of forum posts by guys saying "I'm 10-3 for the week guys!" when it means absolutley nothing.

And I'm not actually pointing this at you or most others on the forum, the reason I joined here is because most threads have lots of good info and debate on the merits of each wager and player.

Cheers and good luck...

bad gambler
04-19-2006, 02:43 AM
betting is all about value, not picking winners




:confused: betting is about picking winners, but consideration re: value must obviously come into it when deciding about what you actually bet on.

clearly taking federer to win a match at $1.01 is stupid, but taking say martin at +1450 against federer (i'm not having a dig at you here btw) is ludicrous on the basis that it presents "value" unless you honestly think he will win. Then of course that is a different matter all together.

Horatio Caine
04-19-2006, 10:03 PM
Anders - at the end of the day I make the decision who I back and what I put on a match. But when a person goes 13/2 in a week I take notice regardless of whether they win or lose money. They're doing something right.