03-21-2006, 05:53 PM
:wavey: This is my first post in this part of the forum, i have a question: Is it possible to treat bets as stocks and sell before maturity? I am watching the winner-take-all market for the French Open and see Ferrer @80:1 and Andreev @130:1. I don't think that either of them will win, but it is quite likely that their prices will go up if they post some good results during the clay season. So would the house close your position before maturity? Thanks in advance :wavey:
03-21-2006, 06:04 PM
Kind of.. I think you can take wages with bookies, and then lay a bet against yourself on an exchange at higher payouts. Something like taht I dont mess with it.
03-21-2006, 09:11 PM
Welcome to this part of the forum Merton :bigwave:
03-21-2006, 09:35 PM
Whatever the current odds are when you place the bet, you get until the bet pays out or is lost. Even if the line changes to say, Ferrer 60:1 sometime before the French, your bet will stand at 80:1 and you cannot sell it back at 1:60. The only way to "sell" it back is if the house has some sort of bet where that says "David Ferrer will NOT win the French Open.". Then you can load up now on yes, hope his odds turn in your favor, and then bet back that he won't win at a lower price. It's called hedging and it is only effective with large amounts of money and is HIGHLY dangerous.
03-22-2006, 04:49 AM
Thanks for the answers Twist, Judge and Freeze. So the only way to close a position before maturity is by buying a lay contract. In the particular case of the Ferrer and Andreev plays, the lay odds are 110 and 270 respectively, so my bet will turn profitable if those become lower than the current back odds. (Source: http://www.betfair.com/?rfr=63&mi=4652716)
By the way, it appears that there exists an arbitrage opportunity in that you can lay on Agassi. However, i doubt that the bookie would trade there.
What you're suggesting is possible. I do something similar with AFL betting, right now Richmond are $3 to make the Top 8 (out of 16) in the AFL, I've laid (or bet against) it happening heavily as their first four weeks are extremely tough and I believe their odds will drift enough for me to bet on them at say $4-5 and make a profit