World Class Wednesday [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

World Class Wednesday

bad gambler
03-15-2006, 02:58 AM
One look at the OOP makes me want to take the next flight out to the desert and watch some of those matches live, one of the best OOP's I have seen in terms of macthups in a non slam even in a while.


Odds from Pinnacle




ATP Matches

R. Federer 1.125
R. Gasquet 8.20

D. Nalbandian 1.346
P. Srichaphan 3.690

J. Nieminen 2.780
M. Safin 1.524

T. Haas 1.840
J. Blake 2.090

I. Andreev 4.310
A. Roddick 1.277

M. Baghdatis 1.909
T. Berdych 2.000

M. Ancic 2.860
I. Ljubicic 1.485

S. Grosjean 3.950
R. Nadal 1.308

TwistyServe
03-15-2006, 03:12 AM
My main play:

Safin to beat Niminen @1.54
Haas to beat Blake @1.84

Freeze17171
03-15-2006, 03:54 AM
With the way Gasquet and Federer played today, anybody think a small wager on Ritchie is worthwhile?

jackieglover
03-15-2006, 04:38 AM
With the way Gasquet and Federer played today, anybody think a small wager on Ritchie is worthwhile?

I think Federer will bounce back large, but -800 is not my cup of tea :lol:

Freeze17171
03-15-2006, 08:00 AM
Mario Ancic (+186) vs. Ivan Ljubicic
This is a play on the odds only, I don't think Ivan should be favored this much. These two played a month ago on indoor hard and Ancic beat him. Ancic definitely has the talent, and seems to raise his game when playing his fellow Davis Cup teamate. This match should be close and could go either way.

Andre♥
03-15-2006, 08:06 AM
These two played a month ago on indoor hard and Ancic beat him in straight sets.

False. Ancic won 7:6 3:6 6:3

Freeze17171
03-15-2006, 08:12 AM
TennisInsight is wrong then...

Horatio Caine
03-15-2006, 08:19 AM
Mario Ancic (+186) vs. Ivan Ljubicic
This is a play on the odds only, I don't think Ivan should be favored this much. These two played a month ago on indoor hard and Ancic beat him. Ancic definitely has the talent, and seems to raise his game when playing his fellow Davis Cup teamate. This match should be close and could go either way.

Serve and volley works effectively indoors. Now we're outdoors on a slower court...and Ancic struggled with his serve majorly vs PHM. I'd definitely favour Ljubo in this one.

alansk
03-15-2006, 09:02 AM
Hi, my first contribution.
Just started tennis betting this year.
2006 record - 17W 17L - ROI 13.7% - Ave odds 2.49

Small plays on Gasquet and Andreev.
Medium plays on Haas, Ancic and Berdych.

So basically hoping for 2 to romp home, then anything more is a bonus.

Cheers!

Sorry about the lack of justification. Picks basically just based on 2006/IW form.

coup-du-cobra
03-15-2006, 09:03 AM
BERDYCH * HAAS= 1.9*1.8= 3.4

My record is so bad this week though. I am probably wrong again but i'm still gonna try it.

i2ooney
03-15-2006, 09:16 AM
I believe Nadal is the best bet of the day for a large play.

Baghdatis v Berdych should be a live betting opportunity on a few websites so I'd advise patience.

Haas is also a probable winner.

Gasquet has a small chance but again I'd advise waiting on a live betting scenario.

Ljubicic is of value but has been poor in a few matches in the past couple of months. I'd give this one a miss.

Nieminen is a potenital winner in my opinion.

Breaker
03-15-2006, 10:11 AM
2006


ATP Tennis Record: 36-10, +7.30 Units (ROI 21.56%)


Staked: 33.85 Units
Return: 41.15 Units
Profit: +7.30 Units
Selections: 46
Avg Odds: $1.73
Strike Rate: 78.3%
Longest Streak: 11 Wins
Last 20 Bets: 17-3
Flat Stakes ROI: 34.15%

Yesterday's Selection: Marcos Baghdatis over Gaston Gaudio - WIN



Today's Selection w/ Analysis: http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/showthread.php?t=2745



Cheers
Breaker

Horatio Caine
03-15-2006, 10:51 AM
Outstanding bet for today...

Ancic x Roddick @ 1.92 - small stakes

Dollars & Cents
03-15-2006, 10:54 AM
I will continue to ride the Marcos Baghdatis wave like at the Australian Open I guess and having taken him outright @ 67.00 before the tournament.

Simply I will take Marcos as I believe in a good match-up; with his consistency and his ability to turn defence into attack. Usually taking such a tough match you are playing into the bookies hands as the odds < evens so I will combine it with the most likely obvious winner to get some advantage hopefully back and Nalbandian appears the best play today.

Baghdatis + Nalbandian @ 2.43 (Bet365 or VCBet)

Horatio Caine
03-15-2006, 10:56 AM
I discovered a pattern which takes into account results, form, impressive wins etc to pick out "sure" winners per round of a tournament. I piloted it for R3 Indian Wells and the system went 11/3.

These are the "sure winners" for R4 - Federer, Ljubicic, Roddick and Nadal.

Horatio Caine
03-15-2006, 10:59 AM
I'm not convinced by many peoples' observations that Andreev could shock Roddick...please give me more than one reason why he can or even why he is worth backing against the American.

I'm looking at putting Roddick into a second bet to bolster value - this is risky I know.

Leans:

Ljubicic x Roddick @ 1.83
Haas @ 1.80

Any constructive criticism welcome ;)

alansk
03-15-2006, 11:09 AM
I'm not convinced by many peoples' observations that Andreev could shock Roddick...please give me more than one reason why he can or even why he is worth backing against the American.

I was just impressed that he beat Tursun and Sod. And Roddick's been a bit off lately. Simple as that. But it's very low stakes for me. :)

Dollars & Cents
03-15-2006, 11:10 AM
I discovered a pattern which takes into account results, form, impressive wins etc to pick out "sure" winners per round of a tournament. I piloted it for R3 Indian Wells and the system went 11/3.

These are the "sure winners" for R4 - Federer, Ljubicic, Roddick and Nadal.

Pattern? I don't like that the sound of that as it also often incorporates another word I don't like 'random' :p . Jez is this more of a system? Or a way to get some numerical data into percentages therefore allowing you to assess value? If so then it is a worthwhile tool I think. As for the result; Federer, Ljubicic, Roddick and Nadal - well they're all fairly predictable even for the novice tennis follower. However, if you could give me percentages on these winners than that would be more appealing.

andye
03-15-2006, 11:15 AM
I'm not convinced by many peoples' observations that Andreev could shock Roddick...please give me more than one reason why he can or even why he is worth backing against the American.

I'm looking at putting Roddick into a second bet to bolster value - this is risky I know.

Leans:

Ljubicic x Roddick @ 1.83
Haas @ 1.80

Any constructive criticism welcome ;)


Smash it with confidence.

alansk
03-15-2006, 11:17 AM
Pattern? I don't like that the sound of that as it also often incorporates another word I don't like 'random' :p . Jez is this more of a system? Or a way to get some numerical data into percentages therefore allowing you to assess value? If so then it is a worthwhile tool I think. As for the result; Federer, Ljubicic, Roddick and Nadal - well they're all fairly predictable even for the novice tennis follower. However, if you could give me percentages on these winners than that would be more appealing.

Indeed. No disrespect, but 11/3 doesn't sound "sure" enough as I'd like!

Horatio Caine
03-15-2006, 12:02 PM
Pattern? I don't like that the sound of that as it also often incorporates another word I don't like 'random' :p . Jez is this more of a system? Or a way to get some numerical data into percentages therefore allowing you to assess value? If so then it is a worthwhile tool I think. As for the result; Federer, Ljubicic, Roddick and Nadal - well they're all fairly predictable even for the novice tennis follower. However, if you could give me percentages on these winners than that would be more appealing.

I have already outlined what the system involves and in yesterday's thread the plays included Malisse and Ancic for instance...not just the heavy faves.

Horatio Caine
03-15-2006, 12:04 PM
Indeed. No disrespect, but 11/3 doesn't sound "sure" enough as I'd like!

Well 79% is pretty good success rate! Besides, I wouldn't hit any of the plays unless I was myself confident in the match-up. But a current +75% success rate + your own confidence in the winner = as sure as you can get! :p

Horatio Caine
03-15-2006, 12:08 PM
I was just impressed that he beat Tursun and Sod. And Roddick's been a bit off lately. Simple as that. But it's very low stakes for me. :)

Yeah but "impressed" doesn't cut it for me :lol: ;)

Soderling should have beaten him - period.

Andreev has improved on hardcourts, don't get me wrong. But Roddick has been one of the best, and despite his recent results, Roddick still isn't doing all that badly! :lol:

Besides, many people were condemning him ahead of the Verdasco match and he won more easily than expected. Andreev is inconsistent and has been poor at AMS and GS level. Add to that a good IW record for A-Rod and his best results in USA...how can you oppose A-Rod? :p

alansk
03-15-2006, 12:09 PM
Well 79% is pretty good success rate! Besides, I wouldn't hit any of the plays unless I was myself confident in the match-up. But a current +75% success rate + your own confidence in the winner = as sure as you can get! :p

That's cool. If it keeps working and you keep giving us the tips then I won't complain!

Horatio Caine
03-15-2006, 12:11 PM
That's cool. If it keeps working and you keep giving us the tips then I won't complain!

Like any system it will probably fall apart but use it and abuse it while it works! :drink: :smoke:

alansk
03-15-2006, 12:13 PM
Yeah but "impressed" doesn't cut it for me :lol: ;)

Soderling should have beaten him - period.

Andreev has improved on hardcourts, don't get me wrong. But Roddick has been one of the best, and despite his recent results, Roddick still isn't doing all that badly! :lol:

Besides, many people were condemning him ahead of the Verdasco match and he won more easily than expected. Andreev is inconsistent and has been poor at AMS and GS level. Add to that a good IW record for A-Rod and his best results in USA...how can you oppose A-Rod? :p

Okay well maybe I've thrown a tiny stake down the drain. My bad. ;)

Horatio Caine
03-15-2006, 12:16 PM
Okay well maybe I've thrown a tiny stake down the drain. My bad. ;)

I'm only fighting Andy's case ;)

The great thing about pro tennis these days (but bad for betting) is that there are many surprises. Andreev might well cause a surprise tonight...who knows :shrug:

alansk
03-15-2006, 12:23 PM
I'm only fighting Andy's case ;)

The great thing about pro tennis these days (but bad for betting) is that there are many surprises. Andreev might well cause a surprise tonight...who knows :shrug:

Yep it's all good fun.

I'm gonna shut up now.
Good luck jez. See ya.

sports freak
03-15-2006, 12:27 PM
I'm not convinced by many peoples' observations that Andreev could shock Roddick...please give me more than one reason why he can or even why he is worth backing against the American.

I'm looking at putting Roddick into a second bet to bolster value - this is risky I know.

Leans:

Ljubicic x Roddick @ 1.83
Haas @ 1.80

Any constructive criticism welcome ;)

Agree Jez on Haas,think his way too consistent for Good guy Blake 2morro,also Lubo should take out Mario n believe it or not A-Rod could be the worry but in sayin soo he should win and get over the line!!!

andye
03-15-2006, 12:31 PM
I'm only fighting Andy's case ;)

The great thing about pro tennis these days (but bad for betting) is that there are many surprises. Andreev might well cause a surprise tonight...who knows :shrug:


Time to go to bed soon here in Aus. Lets share some thoughts.

Nadal-Grosjean
Ljubo-Ancic
Haas-Blake?
Safin-Jarko?

Do you see as any of these as straight setters which are you confident on.

bad gambler
03-15-2006, 12:32 PM
Jimmy B to beat Tommy Haas - $2.05

Baggy to beat Berdych - $1.90

be lucky

sports freak
03-15-2006, 12:32 PM
One look at the OOP makes me want to take the next flight out to the desert and watch some of those matches live, one of the best OOP's I have seen in terms of macthups in a non slam even in a while.


Odds from Pinnacle




ATP Matches

R. Federer 1.125
R. Gasquet 8.20

D. Nalbandian 1.346
P. Srichaphan 3.690

J. Nieminen 2.780
M. Safin 1.524

T. Haas 1.840
J. Blake 2.090

I. Andreev 4.310
A. Roddick 1.277

M. Baghdatis 1.909
T. Berdych 2.000

M. Ancic 2.860
I. Ljubicic 1.485

S. Grosjean 3.950
R. Nadal 1.308







Looking at the cards looks like all Favs are very tempting and some are good value IMO,Like Haas 1.84 a hell of alot aswell,also Safin 1.52/Nadal double!!Baggy 1.90 should take out Bridman,Lubo 1.48 is good for a multi aswell!!!!

Mario66
03-15-2006, 12:33 PM
Andreev to win with +4 games hcp against Roddick $1.90

Ljubicic to cover -3 games hcp against Ancic $1.90

Baghdatis to beat Berdych $1.90

Parlay:

Ljubicic & Haas $2.55

Good luck everyone! :yeah:

sports freak
03-15-2006, 12:36 PM
Jimmy B to beat Tommy Haas - $2.05

Baggy to beat Berdych - $1.90

be lucky

You got massive balls BG for going Jimmy against the hottest player on HC atm (Tommy Haas -comin off big win against Dre) ???but good luck to ya!!!Love Baggy 2nite aswell!!!!

bad gambler
03-15-2006, 12:37 PM
You got massive balls BG for going Jimmy against the hottest player on HC atm (Tommy Haas -comin off big win against Dre) ???but good luck to ya!!!Love Baggy 2nite aswell!!!!


Agassi is a hack these days SF, hardly an impressive win


J Block will be rocking on centrecourt tomorrow night

sports freak
03-15-2006, 12:39 PM
Andreev to win with +4 games hcp against Roddick $1.90

Ljubicic to cover -3 games hcp against Ancic $1.90

Baghdatis to beat Berdych $1.90

Parlay:

Ljubicic & Haas $2.55

Good luck everyone! :yeah:

Very nice plays mate couldnt agree more,only one that could be a faulty is Igor,dont know which one is gonna come out to play!!!Almost like a Safin thesedays!!

sports freak
03-15-2006, 12:42 PM
Agassi is a hack these days SF, hardly an impressive win


J Block will be rocking on centrecourt tomorrow night

There are alot of players worse then Dre atm,Shittler is one of them,suprise the bloke won a game or 2 the other day!!!I guess you will have the huge home crowd to cheer him on but this smells like a Rusty against Chela,hoping the the homeboy to lift n raise his game cos he will need it IMHO!!!!

TwistyServe
03-15-2006, 01:46 PM
Serve and volley works effectively indoors.

You do know Ancic hardly S&Vs anymore.. Same with Fish. They mostly stay in the baseline and come in to net to end points when they can but usually are back. Neither can be considered S&Vers like Stepanek/Dent.

dbnumberone
03-15-2006, 01:47 PM
Bet to win 2 units on Safin
gl all

Horatio Caine
03-15-2006, 01:52 PM
You do know Ancic hardly S&Vs anymore..

That really surprises me.

Well if that is right, I like Ljubo all the more today :lol:

Horatio Caine
03-15-2006, 01:58 PM
Right - a little bit of a strategy here, and hopefully it works far better than the last one! :lol: Rather than doing 2 small bets, I'm going medium on just 1 bet. I like the double far more than the Haas single so if I lose on the double then I'm happy to call it a night. If the double wins, I might put some proceeds on Haas, but that match is pretty much 50/50 imo and I don't think I like Haas enough to back him.

Here goes:

Ljubo x Roddick (again, I know!) @ 1.83 - medium stakes.

Analysis: http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/showthread.php?p=16140#post16140

Good luck! :yeah:

bad gambler
03-15-2006, 02:03 PM
not a wise idea to have the same contingency in two different parlays, and this is not a case of 'each to their own" in betting, just a Big NO in general parlays...

sports freak
03-15-2006, 02:05 PM
That really surprises me.

Well if that is right, I like Ljubo all the more today :lol:

Twist is telling the truth!!!

Horatio Caine
03-15-2006, 02:08 PM
Twist is telling the truth!!!

Never said he wasn't...thanks for the insight Twist ;)

sports freak
03-15-2006, 02:12 PM
Finally bookies got brave and decided to post Baggys odds,now lets make em pay with Haas aswell!!!

50 units on Tommy Haas 1.75 over James Blake- I feel the winner will be consistency therefor gotta go with the German who has a big serve to trouble Blake aswell!!!!Lets go Tommyyyyyyyyy

30 units on Marcos Bagdhatis 1.85 over Thomas Berdych- Baggy is one tough nut with some talent and a huge serve add the forehand aswell makes a nice cocktail!!!!!!!!

30 units on Ivan Ljubcic 1.45/Marat Safin 1.47 @ 2.13 over Mario Ancic/Jarkko Nieminen- Both players should win if play to thier potential,like the game better then their opponents!!!

Horatio Caine
03-15-2006, 02:13 PM
not a wise idea to have the same contingency in two different parlays, and this is not a case of 'each to their own" in betting, just a Big NO in general parlays...

You directing that at me? ;)

Yeah I know it isn't wise but I will be really shocked if A-Rod loses. Ljubo has a very good chance of victory so I'm just playing this by confidence more than anything. Please, no one else follow me on this! :lol:

sports freak
03-15-2006, 02:14 PM
Never said he wasn't...thanks for the insight Twist ;)

Didnt mean it that way,just sayin Twist isnt lying thats all Jez!!!

sports freak
03-15-2006, 02:15 PM
You directing that at me? ;)

Yeah I know it isn't wise but I will be really shocked if A-Rod loses. Ljubo has a very good chance of victory so I'm just playing this by confidence more than anything. Please, no one else follow me on this! :lol:

Champ they look good to me,good luck mate

Horatio Caine
03-15-2006, 02:17 PM
Didnt mean it that way,just sayin Twist isnt lying thats all Jez!!!
:lol: Yeah its no excuse but I've been really tired the past few days and not worded my sentences well...managed to insult someone in a well-meant email yesterday because my wording was ambiguous :haha:

I haven't seen Ancic play since last summer so I'm in no place to comment on how he plays right now. I'm very grateful for the helpful insight :)

sports freak
03-15-2006, 02:20 PM
:lol: Yeah its no excuse but I've been really tired the past few days and not worded my sentences well...managed to insult someone in a well-meant email yesterday because my wording was ambiguous :haha:

I haven't seen Ancic play since last summer so I'm in no place to comment on how he plays right now. I'm very grateful for the helpful insight :)

Dont worry mate,im worse then you!sometimes you just rush things,its all part of the parcel

Andre♥
03-15-2006, 02:45 PM
I never post here my picks, but I do that in a portuguese forum!

So portuguese, spanish, brazilian or just portuguese speakers:

Register on this forum:

http://www.apostaganha.com/profile.php?mode=register&refer_id=168

And then you'll find on other sports, my daily tennis thoughts.

My nickname there is Sylv

To the other gamblers:

There is a english part on this forum where we discuss in english the portuguese league (1st and 2nd division). There are so great experts, so you'll find there great picks.

So, again the link:

http://www.apostaganha.com/profile.php?mode=register&refer_id=168

Thanks in advance

Jaap
03-15-2006, 02:54 PM
Alright, first post.

Some tempting ones today. Going for Berdych x Haas.

Also a small play on Grosjean.

alansk
03-15-2006, 03:09 PM
Hi, my first contribution.
Just started tennis betting this year.
2006 record - 17W 17L - ROI 13.7% - Ave odds 2.49

Small plays on Gasquet and Andreev.
Medium plays on Haas, Ancic and Berdych.

So basically hoping for 2 to romp home, then anything more is a bonus.

Cheers!

Sorry about the lack of justification. Picks basically just based on 2006/IW form.

Decided to drop the Ancic play. And switched from Berd to Bagh. :eek:

Bilbo
03-15-2006, 04:08 PM
fair play to safin

gl

TwistyServe
03-15-2006, 04:25 PM
Haven't seen bolar and jimbo here recently..

Is jimmy serving detention from gamblers forum?

Bolar Bolabi
03-15-2006, 04:52 PM
Haas @ $1.75 over Blake

Haas X Ljubicic @ $2.57

Good luck!

olix
03-15-2006, 05:16 PM
I agree on Ljubicic.

I saw the match at Marseille and Ancic was very hot and very lucky to get past Ljubo. Might not be the case this time.

Anders
03-15-2006, 05:25 PM
YTD: 64-65 +38.43 units

WTD: 9-14 -4.18 units

Indian Wells

Pending:
Srichaphan +255 o Nalbandian (1)
Haas -122 o Blake (1)

Addng:
Ancic +190 o Ljubicic (1)
Andreev +329 o Roddick (1)

Will M. Baghdatis win 2-1 ?
Yes +320 (1)
Will T. Berdych Win 2-1 ?
Yes +356 (1)

olix
03-15-2006, 05:49 PM
Sure, anyone can get blinded by "Blake being on fire" and H2H lead , but I just can't get over his losses this year to guys like Seppi, Yeu-Tzuoo Wang, Vliegen, and him dropping a set (6-1) to Querrey, compared to Haas's consistency and all-around better game.

TwistyServe
03-15-2006, 06:09 PM
Sure, anyone can get blinded by "Blake being on fire" and H2H lead , but I just can't get over his losses this year to guys like Seppi, Yeu-Tzuoo Wang, Vliegen, and him dropping a set (6-1) to Querrey, compared to Haas's consistency and all-around better game.

Even if Blake's on fire tonight I don't think he can just run Haas off the court. Haas's backhand will dominate Blake's backhand, and his forehand can contend with Blakes. So yes it will be a tight match, but given Blake's inconsistency factor, I'd edge it to Haas!

Lets hope things turn out well.

TwistyServe
03-15-2006, 07:18 PM
Finally bookies got brave and decided to post Baggys odds,now lets make em pay with Haas aswell!!!

50 units on Tommy Haas 1.75 over James Blake- I feel the winner will

I wonder if Nick is proud of his boy.

coup3z
03-15-2006, 07:20 PM
haas-blake over 22,5 games @ 1,70

Horatio Caine
03-15-2006, 07:44 PM
Decided to drop the Ancic play. And switched from Berd to Bagh. :eek:

Nice one! :yeah:

Horatio Caine
03-15-2006, 07:45 PM
I agree on Ljubicic.

I saw the match at Marseille and Ancic was very hot and very lucky to get past Ljubo. Might not be the case this time.

Even more that Ljubicic was actually injured too.

Horatio Caine
03-15-2006, 07:47 PM
Haven't seen bolar and jimbo here recently..

Is jimmy serving detention from gamblers forum?

I'm just as confused as you :lol:

I haven't seen Jim post anything bad here for....weeks? :scratch:

Horatio Caine
03-15-2006, 07:48 PM
Sure, anyone can get blinded by "Blake being on fire" and H2H lead , but I just can't get over his losses this year to guys like Seppi, Yeu-Tzuoo Wang, Vliegen, and him dropping a set (6-1) to Querrey, compared to Haas's consistency and all-around better game.

Go with your instincts ;)

H2h has been relatively unimportant as of late...although Grosjean did add to his killings of Malisse yesterday

Horatio Caine
03-15-2006, 07:52 PM
Even if Blake's on fire tonight I don't think he can just run Haas off the court. Haas's backhand will dominate Blake's backhand, and his forehand can contend with Blakes. So yes it will be a tight match, but given Blake's inconsistency factor, I'd edge it to Haas!

Lets hope things turn out well.

One thing I hate about this match is how the styles are exactly the same :lol: Haas has an edge, literally only an edge. Exciting, but very 50/50 when it comes to betting.

bad gambler
03-15-2006, 08:03 PM
One thing I hate about this match is how the styles are exactly the same :lol: Haas has an edge, literally only an edge. Exciting, but very 50/50 when it comes to betting.


I wouldn't say Haas-Blake is a matchup of similar styles :shrug:

Blake is much more explosive off both sides off the ground, but with that style of play comes the risk of throwing in heaps of UE's. Haas just doesn't make those errors

TwistyServe
03-15-2006, 08:15 PM
I wouldn't be surprised of either Ljub or Roddick loses.. simply because they have capable opponents. Probably more shocked if Roddick loses. Ancic is very competent from the back as I was impressed how he out gunned baggy and tursunov recently. I never was impressed with Ljub's groundies.. think he relies on his serve a lot more then the other parts of his game.

Freeze17171
03-15-2006, 08:20 PM
I agree, I also think Safin is vulnerable as well. Jarkko is 9-1 on his last 10 matches on hard losing only to Nalbandian. Jarkko took Safin to three sets last year at Indian Wells, and this year Jarkko is playing much better tennis while Safin looks to still be regaining his skills from his time off the court.

TwistyServe
03-15-2006, 08:23 PM
I agree, I also think Safin is vulnerable as well. Jarkko is 9-1 on his last 10 matches on hard losing only to Nalbandian. Jarkko took Safin to three sets last year at Indian Wells, and this year Jarkko is playing much better tennis while Safin looks to still be regaining his skills from his time off the court.

The only thing about Jarkko is he has a very tough time holding serve. I followed a couple of his recent matches and he would get pushed to duece and save BPs almost every game.

Vs ORochus, CRochus, Simon (twice), and Kohl to name a few.. The guy has a lefty serve and should be holding easily but I don't get why he struggles so much. If safin has a good day Jarkko is going home hehe

Horatio Caine
03-15-2006, 08:30 PM
A-Rod is blowing all over the show...I'm getting what I deserve :mad:

Horatio Caine
03-15-2006, 08:31 PM
The guy has a lefty serve and should be holding easily but I don't get why he struggles so much.

He won't hold easily when he faces a guy with a decent backhand :lol:

sports freak
03-15-2006, 08:53 PM
The only thing about Jarkko is he has a very tough time holding serve. I followed a couple of his recent matches and he would get pushed to duece and save BPs almost every game.

Vs ORochus, CRochus, Simon (twice), and Kohl to name a few.. The guy has a lefty serve and should be holding easily but I don't get why he struggles so much. If safin has a good day Jarkko is going home hehe

Serving comes down to mentality n therefor it really shows with Jarkko!!!Some people do wish they could serve like Andy,unfortunate about the rest of his game still needs to be updated!!!

sports freak
03-15-2006, 08:59 PM
Haven't seen bolar and jimbo here recently..

Is jimmy serving detention from gamblers forum?

Jimbo's on Prison Break while Bolar is in Stealth mode after his beloved Windies crash,choked n burn badly as usual!!!!!

sports freak
03-15-2006, 09:01 PM
The only thing about Jarkko is he has a very tough time holding serve. I followed a couple of his recent matches and he would get pushed to duece and save BPs almost every game.

Vs ORochus, CRochus, Simon (twice), and Kohl to name a few.. The guy has a lefty serve and should be holding easily but I don't get why he struggles so much. If safin has a good day Jarkko is going home hehe

If Jarkko is struggling to hold serve then his got no chance against the Big Jimbo i meant Russian (Jimbo's fav player)

Horatio Caine
03-15-2006, 10:15 PM
Eh well, that's why I'm a shit gambler. See you all tomorrow :bigwave:

Doctor Dance
03-15-2006, 10:21 PM
not a wise idea to have the same contingency in two different parlays, and this is not a case of \'each to their own\" in betting, just a Big NO in general parlays...

BG I have always wondered, why did you call yourself bad gambler when you registered here on mtf??? :confused:

What you have said he is sound advice and looks like you have been proven correct.

If it is ok, can I send you a PM to discuss a bit more about your betting strategy and other stuff? I am sort of new at betting and would love to chat to an experience gambler who knows his stuff.

Im on Haas tonight and quite big, I see you are on Blake, am kind of worried now......

i2ooney
03-15-2006, 10:28 PM
hi guys

won with Baghdatis at 1.72 and Andreev at 1.72 also, both live betting. fancied Baghdatis from the start but never expected to see Andreev have Roddick struggling so much. In the end it still turned out a winnable match for Roddick as the third set began.

made £125 from £40 (everything I have!) so I am delighted.

hope to begin one of my streaks now

my initial thoughts for remaining matches are Safin (my favourite player) is not trustworthy as yet to back right now. it could be a 5-7 type match.

Feel Haas is well worth backing. pity won't be able to bet live but faith should be placed in haas. I'd say people are misguided to back Blake to beat Haas (used to also be one of my favourite players to back).

main priority is live betting on gasquet and federer. a potential three setter so I'd advise waiting before placing a bet. I think patience is the best strategy if you are betting live but i hope i stick to my own advice.

good luck!

wish me luck

TwistyServe
03-15-2006, 10:33 PM
hi guys
good luck!

wish me luck

Good luck! At least a third of our wins are from luck :)

i2ooney
03-15-2006, 10:46 PM
but the moments of rare skill make the luck seem worthwhile. i got a bit lucky on andreev tonight. roddick collapsed unpredictably in the third set after a great tie-break.

But I believed in your initial post about Haas the other night, the one about the odds being juicy, it shows you are thinking clearly right now imo cos i was too dopy to look forward to it like you initially.

i still believe in haas. i believed in baghdatis and i believe in haas.

dont fancy finding out the result tomorrow though.

TwistyServe
03-15-2006, 10:46 PM
Im on Haas tonight and quite big, I see you are on Blake, am kind of worried now......

Don't worry DD.. BG is wrong often too :)

I wouldn't go too big on Haas tho. I'm on him too but really that card isn't one you want to go huge on.

If you worry you can hedge your bet back by betting a little on Blake.. Assuming haas wins you still come out on top with a little less gains.. if blake wins you cut your loses.

i2ooney
03-15-2006, 10:47 PM
also feel federer is easily going to beat gasquet. the odds on offer are only 1.14 and im considering betting all my winnings on it though i am prone to impulsive errors.

i2ooney
03-15-2006, 10:48 PM
after all my talk about patience being the key i have put 119 (what ive won from 40 today) on federer at 1.16. however i am 98% certain he will prevail.

Anders
03-15-2006, 11:16 PM
Pending:
Srichaphan +255 o Nalbandian (1)
Adding:
Andreev +329 o Roddick (1)


oh yeah... :devil:

TwistyServe
03-15-2006, 11:19 PM
oh yeah... :devil:

Very nice! Looks like you will be green for the week again :)

i2ooney
03-15-2006, 11:23 PM
i dont think much but im pretty certain im qualified to share a system with you guys. it's designed to help you know your own mind.

i thought of this system just now. it's pretty simple but I think it makes real sense. try and relate the system to recent matches on the tour that you have betted on.

think of a bet where you were 100% certain of the outcome, never had any doubts, won and within yourself felt justified. for me this week it was when berdych was a set and nearly a break up on henman i won £90 from £80 (made £10).

then use this, always, to guage how you feel about other bets. i'd say i am 96% certain on haas. i was 98% with federer. i'd say then it's worth me backing haas with nearly all of my money.

how about this, only bet singles on matches or live betting when you are 88% or above.

only place medium "parlays" or as I think I call it, doubles, trebles or accumulators according to the average percentage confidence to number of selections (number of picks or matches).

example.

match1 96%
match2 88%
match3 90%
match4 91%

average 91. something%

you could have a stake system to provide disclipine like

number of selections 5 or more
total betting funds: x
if 94% + average - 75% maximum stake of x
if 88-93 average - 40% maximum stake of x

number of selections 1-4
total betting funds: x
if 94% + average - 90% maximum stake of x
if 88-93 average - 80% maximum stake of x

hope this somehow helps someone somewhere one day.

lol, when you are stoned you can get carried away

what do you guys think?

can you tell ive been smoking some waccy baccy? lol

Anders
03-15-2006, 11:24 PM
sure does help - was primed for a losing week, was bound to happen sooner or later... at least this way i haven't spent too much cash...
good forum in the most part by the way, some good player and match analysis...

i2ooney
03-15-2006, 11:24 PM
anyone who backed srichaphan or andreev before they started is a genius.

i bow my head.

Horatio Caine
03-16-2006, 12:25 AM
Oh Andy really aint high on my list of favourite people right now...destroyed 2 perfectly good predictions.

My stupid fault for using him to bolster value. :retard: :retard: :retard: :retard: :retard:

Congrats Ljubo :yeah:

Horatio Caine
03-16-2006, 01:42 AM
"Sure winners" system goes 3/1 today and 14/4 overall. :woohoo:

Breaker
03-16-2006, 01:54 AM
"Sure winners" system goes 3/1 today and 14/4 overall. :woohoo:
3/1 sounds good mate, but with flat stakes you would have ended up with a loss today ;)

I think its safe to say, in general terms, systems don't belong in the game of tennis. As you know there are numerous variables that even the most detailed system cannot possibly account for.

On a brighter note, hows things at your end? Its been a long time between drinks! You still at uni?

Horatio Caine
03-16-2006, 02:02 AM
3/1 sounds good mate, but with flat stakes you would have ended up with a loss today ;)

I think its safe to say, in general terms, systems don't belong in the game of tennis. As you know there are numerous variables that even the most detailed system cannot possibly account for.

On a brighter note, hows things at your end? Its been a long time between drinks! You still at uni?

:lol: Yeah I'm just tinkering around. I was daft to put Roddick in twice but so long as I learn from my mistakes I can improve!

Too many drinks man! Yeah I'm still at uni...penultimate week before Easter. You settled into your pharmacy course? Enjoying it?

Freeze17171
03-16-2006, 02:03 AM
Marcos to the bank!

Well, the closer it got to the match starting, the worse I felt about Ancic/Ljubicic. I probably should have hedged and cut losses but I don't like second guessing myself. My other dog Jarkko came through though so it is a good day overall.

Great call on the two heavy dogs anders! :bigclap:

Horatio Caine
03-16-2006, 02:05 AM
Yep - major respect to Baggy and Pdorn backers...excellent tipping! :yeah:

Breaker
03-16-2006, 02:15 AM
Too many drinks man! Yeah I'm still at uni...penultimate week before Easter. You settled into your pharmacy course? Enjoying it?

Yeh its been pretty full on, haven't really had much time to do any work :lol:
Been too busy drinkin'! Ah well, Ive got another 10 days off so I've got time to catch up.

Should've followed my leans on Baghdatis and Andreev today; http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/showthread.php?t=2856

Looking forward to the Haas/Blake match, should be a good one. I took Ljubicic earlier today, however, this was a matchtime decision so I was unable to do a writeup prior to its commencement.

Good luck with your future plays mate

Horatio Caine
03-16-2006, 02:20 AM
Yeh its been pretty full on, haven't really had much time to do any work :lol:
Been too busy drinkin'! Ah well, Ive got another 10 days off so I've got time to catch up.

Should've followed my leans on Baghdatis and Andreev today; http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/showthread.php?t=2856

Looking forward to the Haas/Blake match, should be a good one. I took Ljubicic earlier today, however, this was a matchtime decision so I was unable to do a writeup prior to its commencement.

Good luck with your future plays mate

That's the uni life! Seems to be going well for you - awesome! Yeah I've been quite busy recently and I don't remember reading your plays :scratch: Good work though mate :yeah: Ljubo was a lock really - nothing decent to argue for Ancic's case. BOL to you too - I'll check your thread tomorrow ;)

Bolar Bolabi
03-16-2006, 02:56 AM
Haas to win @ $1.90

TwistyServe
03-16-2006, 04:40 AM
Lost on Marat..

Bet void on Haas due to retirement.

0-1-1 today

bad gambler
03-16-2006, 04:45 AM
Jimmy B to beat Tommy Haas - $2.05

Baggy to beat Berdych - $1.90

be lucky


damn that blows

got lucky in the nba so i wont complain too much, though blake was always going to be tough for haas, but whatever

olix
03-16-2006, 05:17 AM
I just love Hingis. She's mentally stronger than Davydenko and Verdasco linked together. Brought me the money.

i2ooney
03-16-2006, 10:46 AM
Did any of you guys manage to watch the Haas match? I am really surprised by the scoreline but so relieved he retired with a defeat looming.

TwistyServe
03-16-2006, 02:05 PM
Did any of you guys manage to watch the Haas match? I am really surprised by the scoreline but so relieved he retired with a defeat looming.

Haas was sick and retired.

Blake said during the postmatch interview he knew something was wrong with Haas because Haas's serve didn't have much pop.. thought it was his shoulder problems and so Blake was killin Haas's serve.