Sacking Sunday [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Sacking Sunday

its.like.that
03-11-2006, 11:40 PM
Time for these books to get sacked worse than Brett Favre!

:D :sad:

Anyone keen for a 2+ winner?


D. Ferrer 1.654
P. Kohlschreiber 2.430

F. Mayer 2.660
J. Nieminen 1.568

A. Agassi 1.318
P. Goldstein 3.840

A. Clement 3.700
T. Haas 1.333

G. Gaudio 1.610
C. Saulnier 2.540

T. Berdych 1.962
T. Henman 1.943

F. Volandri 2.530
M. Fish 1.613

J. Hernych 9.000
R. Nadal 1.10

more to come...

TwistyServe
03-12-2006, 01:51 AM
Fish over Volandri @1.63
Volandri is so aweful on hardcourts and with such a weak serve, fish should win easily even though he's not in great form. Going strong on this.

DeccyB123
03-12-2006, 02:02 AM
Shit card for favourites but great card for dogs :devil:

Goldstein @ 4
Kohlschreiber @ 2.5

:yeah:

sports freak
03-12-2006, 02:09 AM
Shit card for favourites but great card for dogs :devil:

Goldstein @ 4
Kohlschreiber @ 2.5

:yeah:

Agree,Special K @ 2.50 is tempting!!

Anders
03-12-2006, 02:33 AM
adding...

Carlsen +200 o Robredo
Gonzalez +125 o Soderling
Andreev +111 o Tursunov
Goldstein +284 o Agassi
Saulnier +154 o Gaudio

all for 1 unit, will update record tomorrow

Corey Feldman
03-12-2006, 02:34 AM
Like Haas over Clement, Haas also has 'pigeon ownership' over the frenchie, leading HTH 5-0

Berdy over Henman.
Kohly over ferrer..
mhmm saulnier over Gaudio...

bad gambler
03-12-2006, 02:36 AM
Cobber I reckon Henman can take Berdman, just waiting on the price for Timmy to rise a little more...

Corey Feldman
03-12-2006, 02:49 AM
Good luck on that cob
im always pessimistic when Henman's involved, but Berdy's poor form of late is a good sign.


Ljubo over Tipsarevic (dont know the odds on Ljubo yet ) /Haas over Arnie will be my interests for the day id think, nice n' safe

kiss of death now ive said that.

dbnumberone
03-12-2006, 02:52 AM
Make mine Mardy
Bet to win a unit on Fish
just not seeing Volandri coming through on the HC

Corey Feldman
03-12-2006, 03:02 AM
best odds of around 1.07 on ljubo, so scratching that idea..

Nieminen over Mayer @1.60

Ginepri 1.53
Sricha 1.70 ... nice match this one, pick the player with the least brainfarts :p

Corey Feldman
03-12-2006, 03:13 AM
and
Benneteau over Chela

TwistyServe
03-12-2006, 07:21 AM
We saw how:

1.) Goldstein demolished Martin
2.) Spadea rolled over Berlocq
3.) Braccialli stomped on Horna

All 3 clayers (I do consider horna a clayer) had problems holding serve and barely won recieving pts.

Interesting fact from ATP site Volandri 2005 in review:
Compiled a 27-16 record on clay but 1-12 combined on other three surfaces, including 0-9 on hard courts...

I'm gonna load up on Fish over Volandri @1.602. Volandri has the weakest ATP serve of all time and will be struggling to hold his serve throughout the match. Fish did well against Roddick and Robredo recently, and though he isn't in great form he should take this one out in straights easily. I do realize Volandri had an okay run in Doha this year but I think that was a total fluke! There's risk as always, but hey this is the safest 1.6 bet I've seen in a while. Let's make $$$!

DeccyB123
03-12-2006, 09:11 AM
I can see a lot of dogs getting up today. Adding:

Mayer @ 2.62
Acasuso @ 4.5
Murray @ 2.2
Saulnier @ 2.25
Benneteau @ 2
Wawrinka @ 2.37

bad gambler
03-12-2006, 09:12 AM
Just carrying over my Safin bet from yesterday

&

Parlay:

Nieminen x Robredo - $2.15

gl

TwistyServe
03-12-2006, 12:09 PM
Taking Ginepri @1.8 over Srichaphan.. giving him another chance.. some say why back a slump but srichaphan is so erratic in his behavior, and Ginepri has owned him in the past. Ginepri isn't going to lose all year I'm telling you that now, and this matchup is perfect for him.

Also throwing some at this combo:

Fish x Ginepri @2.7

TwistyServe
03-12-2006, 12:59 PM
Add:

Nalbandian x Safarova @1.69 to beat Gimelstob and Kirkland.

Another chalk parlay to add up small profits.

George_Hanson
03-12-2006, 01:02 PM
Nalbandian wasn't playing since AO and could be risky at such low odds against in form Goldstein

ClaycourtaZzZz.
03-12-2006, 01:05 PM
Murray over Donkey @2.3

olix
03-12-2006, 01:12 PM
I wouldn't put money on Safarova at those odds.

Horatio Caine
03-12-2006, 02:07 PM
Mikey - you talk about having the kiss of death...I must have the worst disease in the world! :lol:

Liking Twisty's idea of Fish over Volandri...but not sure how the Italian matches up with serve-volleyers.

Wary of Safin - the closer the match goes, the more Moya should be favoured. Safin is not 100% and Moya has dug out a lot of tough ones this year.

Verdasco over Karlovic might be good. The Croat has a dreadful record vs lefthanders and Verdasco possesses reasonable passing shots.

Henman has a good chance to beat Berdych imo

Horatio Caine
03-12-2006, 02:08 PM
Oh and Srichaphan over Ginepri is worth something. Only thing to be wary of is that both play similar games...but the Thai is in better form. As I mentioned before, h2h means little at times (Blake 0/6 vs Hewitt and Massu 1/4 vs Calleri to name 2 recent ones) and it could mean little again here.

Horatio Caine
03-12-2006, 02:15 PM
Anyone like Kim over Gasquet @ 3.00?

Maybe not so ridiculous as it sounds. Kim has a good serve, solid volley. Gasquet not in top form...struggles a little with serve and volley :shrug:

bad gambler
03-12-2006, 03:28 PM
Timothy plays on Monday, his price has been drifiting all day in a couple of books so I will be waiting to hit it tomorrow.

Horatio Caine
03-12-2006, 03:33 PM
Okay, I have taken:

Fish over Volandri @ 1.57

Main reasons: Volandri's poor record on hardcourts - 3/7 in the last 12 months and only 38% success rate overall. Fish has been good recently and won a doubles title.

Volandri is very poor in the USA - 1/9 recently and 3/12 overall...his form doesn't really translate there, probably because all of the tournaments he plays there are hardcourts. Fish, as you might expect, has a winning record in his country, and will, of course, have crowd support.

At Indian Wells, Volandri is 0/2, with a loss to Zib last year. Fish is 7/4 and has lost to Federer there twice.

Tiebreaks - Fish is more likely to win them.

Match-up - Volandri struggles against any reasonable hardcourt player. His serve is breakable. If Fish serves and volleys well, he should be relatively untroubled on serve.

Fish is looking for winnable matches and points. He is fitter than he was a few months ago. Volandri's commitment is questonable at the best of times, and his record in USA and on hardcourts suggests that he is thinking towards the clay instead.

Good luck! :yeah:

Please, please, please by lucky Mardy!!

Horatio Caine
03-12-2006, 03:45 PM
Prabu - there seem to be 29 mens' singles matches scheduled today...that means Henman is one of the only players, if not the ONLY player not to play his match as scheduled...is that not a little odd?

...Henman's back troubling him again? Looks like he may have asked for extra time :shrug:

Incidentally, damp conditions are not good for things like dodgy backs

bad gambler
03-12-2006, 03:48 PM
Prabu - there seem to be 29 mens' singles matches scheduled today...that means Henman is one of the only players, if not the ONLY player not to play his match as scheduled...is that not a little odd?

...Henman's back troubling him again? Looks like he may have asked for extra time :shrug:

Incidentally, damp conditions are not good for things like dodgy backs

I believe it is due to the fact that Hewitt will also have to play his match on Monday given the Schuettler-Pasha match has been carried over for 2 days now.

Grinder
03-12-2006, 03:56 PM
Pending...

Schuettler x Spadea x Malisse @ +290
Fish x Ginepri @ +170

Mistaflava
03-12-2006, 04:10 PM
Round 2: Sunday, March 12, 2006



Nikolay Davydenko 1.78 over Andy Murray
Last time we saw Davydenko he got his ass bounced by a returning Marat Safin in Dubai. That was then, this is now. Davy has had a lot of time off to recover from that loss and there is no excuse this time around for not beating an opponent like Murray. The two players have never met before but I do give the immediate advantage to the Russian and don't see why the odds have dipped so low and why his price is so good. Davydenko needs to regain the form he had in Sydney and at the Aussie Open where he lost a very spirited quarter-final to Roger Federer. The funny thing is, I actually see Davydenko making it very far in this tournament and although the young brit is one gritty little monster, Davydenko will be too much for him to handle. Murray is coming off a first round win over Mazarakis but that doesn't mean much in a tournament like this. So far in 2006, Murray has not done shit on the hardcourts and it seems like he is more suited to play indoors than outdoors on this surface. Murray lost to Berdych in Adelaide, Ancic in Sydney, Chela at the Aussie Open and Robredo in Las Vegas. So it is now clear in mind that this kid does not yet have what it takes on these kinds of surfaces and that it will probably take come re-tooling for him to win a few of these matches. I don't think Murray can take one set from Kolya and I will enjoy watching my money come in without a sweat. Well I shouldn't say that but whatever, Murray on hardcourts? Nah, give me Davydenko.




Robin Soderling 1.78 over Fernando Gonzalez
Very interesting matchup once again but it has been made clear in the past that Soderling can kick Gonzo's ass on this type of surface and there is no reason for him not to do it a third time. Sodo beat Gonzalez both in Marseille and at the US Open in the past, which tells me right away that Sodo's style really bothers Gonzalez. The last time we saw Gonzo on this surface he lost to Bogomolov Jr. at the Australian Open and has not played on the hardcourts since. The transition from clay to the hard stuff will be a problem for Gonzalez and I expect him to struggle. Soderling has struggled as well in past hardcourt events but in my opinion, he still has the weapons to put Gonzo on the move and make him earn each and every point. Sodo kept it very cool in Round 1 against the annoying Jurgen Melzer and if that was any indication of how he is going to play today, the challenge won't be that large for Sodo. When it comes to breaking this one down stat-by-stat, both players are quite close in range and the odds are appropriate. I am going to enjoy following this match because I know Gonzalez can be horrible at times and this could be one of those times. Give me Soderling to bring home the bacon!




Gaston Gaudio 1.68 over Cyril Saulnier
We have the #8 ranked player in the world against the #122 ranked player in the world and the books decided to give us some juicy odds? I am confused but I am also sold. Could it be that I am being baited again or could it just be a very poor job by the linesmakers? Gaudio is coming off a semi-final appearance on the Acapulco clay courts and that tournament makes me wonder if the real Gaudio is back in action. For those of you who say that GG can't play on the hardcourts, were you not impressed by his five-setter at the Aussie Open against Fabrice Santoro? Gaudio had that match in the bag but in classic Gaudio style, was horrible in the late going and lost three straight sets. Okay that's not a problem but in my eyes, he had Santoro beat. I have a feeling the odds on Gaudio are so low because Saulnier kicked the shit out of Mad Max in Round 1. Well Mr. Mirnyi definitely has an injury or something and there is no way Saulnier should be given a shot in this match. Saulnier is the same ass-clown that lost in straight sets to Rohan Bopanna in Chennai earlier this year and the same guys that loses just about every match to everyone else regardless of the surface. Saulnier is 1-17 in his career when facing a TOP 10 ranked opponents. His only win came against Guillermo Coria at the Aussie Open but other than that, he has been getting killed left and right by guys in the TOP 10. Gaudio is 7-5 on hardcourts over the last 12 months while Saulnier is only 4-11. The frenchman does not have a good TMS record and this should be an easy match for Gaudio.




Vincent Spadea 2.36 over Juan Carlos Ferrero
This pick might make me or it might break me. Regardless, my system has picked Spadea to win this match and it actually really ressembles the PHM vs. Seppi match in terms of odds and probability of winning. Okay anyways...Spadea is coming off a very disappointing Las Vegas tournament where he was bounced in the second round by Goldstein. This is a new week now and Spadea must have his confidence back after knocking Berclocq silly last night and forcing him to retire with an injury. Spadea has not been all that bad on the hardcourts this season, giving Lleyton Hewitt a nice run for his money in Sydney, taking a set from Santoro at the Aussie Open, losing in the semi-finals of Delray Beach to a very good Tommy Haas and finally his performance in Las Vegas which we by now have already stopped talking about. JCF is good and it's tough to go against him. However, Ferrero is coming off a very embarassing loss on the clay courts to Saretta in Brasil and although he has taken some time off since, playing one of the hardcourt tournaments would have been a good idea. His last tournament on this surface was at the Aussie Open where he struggled badly to beat Janko Tipsarevic and finally was beaten by Nicolas Kiefer in the 3rd Round. Not impressed. Prior to that in Sydney, JCF lost to Chris Guccionne and it seems like his form on this surface has fallen out of order. Ferrero is 2-0 lifetime versus Spadea but both matches were on clay and each time Spadea played a better match. That makes me think that this could finally be the match we see Spadea excel in and pull off the big upset. Ferrero has only two wins in seven matches at Indian Wells and has shown time and time again that his transition from clay to hardcourts is pretty much garbage. Spadea on the other was a semi-finalist here in 2003 and knows what it takes to win. Oh say can you see....




Ivo Karlovic 1.78 over Fernando Verdasco
This is the first lifetime matchup between these two European players and I am not too sure what to think. I know Fernando is good on the hardcourts, better than some other Spaniards but I also know that Ivo has a monster serve and that Verdasco has had problems with big serving Croatians in the past. Verdasco is coming off a first round loss in Las Vegas and has not made it past the second round of a tournament in who knows how long. Verdasco has been just terrible on the hardcourts lately, losing that match to Kohlschreiber in Vegas, getting bounced at the Aussie Open by the young Vliegen and losing to a Lucky Loser in Juan Monaco back in January in Syndey. Ouch, ouch and ouch. His confidence probably sucks and there is no way Verdasco can make his usual mistakes and beat a surging Karlovic. The big Croatian monster got the cobwebs out in round one when he disposed of Tomas Zib. Prior to that, the hardcourts have been his best surface as he made the semi-finals in Vegas, almost beat Davydenko at the Aussie Open and won four matches in Sydney. Safe enough to say that this kind of surface suits the big man and he will be happy to play against a guy who sometimes doesn't know his foot from his ass. This is going to be a very close match with the probability for two tie-breaks and I really like Karlovic to get the job done agaisnt an out of form Verdasco.



:eek:

coup3z
03-12-2006, 04:47 PM
Gimelstob +5 games @ 1,80 seems ok? any ideas?

Corey Feldman
03-12-2006, 04:53 PM
not sure about going against Volandri, he did play very well on HC in Doha only a few motnhs ago, d. Davydenko and losing SF..
Is Haas playing today ?

Ancic @1.45 over sanguinetti.

TwistyServe
03-12-2006, 05:52 PM
Gasquet's odds have gone up to 1.5 lol.. has kim ever beaten a real talent before in ATP match? Okay so he beat Youzhny yesterday but Youzhny is so inconsistent.. now everyones pumping money into Kim?

I might put Gasquet in a parlay with something.. 1.5 odds over Kim who recently lost to Reynolds and other challenger players... This is true even if Kim has a chance.

betowiec
03-12-2006, 06:09 PM
i am thinking about taking Monfils, any opinions?

thanks

TwistyServe
03-12-2006, 06:27 PM
i am thinking about taking Monfils, any opinions?

thanks

I think he should win but for those odds seem a little low. You'd have to risk a lot of $$ to make a little. Morrison has a troubling game and Monfils has lost to lower opponents like Bjork.

betowiec
03-12-2006, 06:34 PM
I think he should win but for those odds seem a little low. You'd have to risk a lot of $$ to make a little. Morrison has a troubling game and Monfils has lost to lower opponents like Bjork.

already put him in a parlay with gaston and Robby (?????) but low stakes, cuz how can i trust Ginepri this year, and Gaston is another headcase, so that leaves me with Monfils as my main play for the day

thanks Twisty

Freeze17171
03-12-2006, 07:04 PM
Yay Fish! Great call twistserve! :cool:

TwistyServe
03-12-2006, 07:14 PM
Yay Fish! Great call twistserve! :cool:

Great win on Fish!

We can keep on fading volandri on hardcourts all year if the odds are right!

Horatio Caine
03-12-2006, 08:19 PM
I believe it is due to the fact that Hewitt will also have to play his match on Monday given the Schuettler-Pasha match has been carried over for 2 days now.

But how does that explain Ancic v Sangers being scheduled for today when Seppi - Mathieu still haven't finished R1? ;)

Horatio Caine
03-12-2006, 08:24 PM
Mista - good stuff on Soders mate - I like that prediction. Not sure about Gaudio or Karlovic...Gaudio's commitment is questionable and Saulnier isn't a bad hardcourt player. Karlovic could serve Verdasco off court, but his record vs lefthanders is a little :scared: Good luck! :yeah:

Mikey - when Volandri's only wins on American hardcourts came against Hippensteel, Jim Thomas and Gross...he had little chance today :lol: Besides, his wins in Doha were largely against clay-loving opposition. That win over Donkey still amazes me though...

Horatio Caine
03-12-2006, 08:26 PM
Gimelstob +5 games @ 1,80 seems ok? any ideas?

Well Bandian hasn't played a lot as you'll probably know...but he generally likes to play serve-volleyers so it might be easy ;)

Horatio Caine
03-12-2006, 08:28 PM
Gasquet's odds have gone up to 1.5 lol.. has kim ever beaten a real talent before in ATP match? Okay so he beat Youzhny yesterday but Youzhny is so inconsistent.. now everyones pumping money into Kim?

I might put Gasquet in a parlay with something.. 1.5 odds over Kim who recently lost to Reynolds and other challenger players... This is true even if Kim has a chance.

As you are aware, it is all in the match-up and not the ranking...virtually any player can beat a player outside the top 2 in the world.

Gasquet hasn't done well vs serve-volleyers in a while. Kim has a good game and could trouble him. If Gasquet were on top form, you'd have to go with him. But he isn't...so anything is possible for Kim.

RickDaStick
03-12-2006, 08:29 PM
But how does that explain Ancic v Sangers being scheduled for today when Seppi - Mathieu still haven't finished R1? ;)

Ancic vs Sanguinetti is not scheduled for today.

Horatio Caine
03-12-2006, 08:30 PM
Well I didn't know when I would next get the chance to thank a player...thankfully it hasn't been too long!

Thanks Mardy! :yeah: :banana:

Horatio Caine
03-12-2006, 08:34 PM
Ancic vs Sanguinetti is not scheduled for today.

My apologies Prabu...I got confused by the Willhill schedule :lol:

Thanks for correcting my IL :yeah:

TwistyServe
03-12-2006, 09:30 PM
Pending...

Schuettler x Spadea x Malisse @ +290


Nice hit on the big parlay!

TwistyServe
03-12-2006, 10:24 PM
Small bets on

Braccialli over Dom @2.780
Chela over Benneteau @1.704

bad gambler
03-12-2006, 10:26 PM
Adding:


Soderling to beat Gonzo - $1.70

gl

Freeze17171
03-12-2006, 10:42 PM
Gasquet can beat the best, but can also lose to anybody. His game of late has been subpar to say the least, and Kim is one of those players who will let an inconsistent player beat themselves.

dbnumberone
03-12-2006, 11:06 PM
Make mine Mardy
Bet to win a unit on Fish
just not seeing Volandri coming through on the HC

Henman, Spadea, Fish this week, no set closer than 6-3; could use more like that!
End Week 10 3-0, up 3 units, ytd 54-22, up 14.9
GL w/ the rest of the day all

Corey Feldman
03-12-2006, 11:14 PM
My apologies Prabu...I got confused by the Willhill schedule :lol:same here :lol: bloody willhills

Mario66
03-12-2006, 11:56 PM
Acasuso to beat Roddick with +4.5 games hcp $1.90

Good luck! :yeah:

bad gambler
03-13-2006, 12:44 AM
Also adding

Srichaphan to beat Ginepri - $2.20

gl

TwistyServe
03-13-2006, 03:11 AM
Add:

Last one for the day.

Monfils to beat Morrison @1.51

The odds went up just enough for me to take this. Monfils has beaten Moodie, Stepanek, and Karlovic implying he can handle the S&V game and big servers. He is 1-0 H2H over Morrison and actually beat him last year at IW. I'll put a medium wage on this as it seems 'safe'. I don't like how Monfils is sometimes inconsistent but lets see if the cash comes.

bad gambler
03-13-2006, 03:27 AM
Just carrying over my Safin bet from yesterday

&

Parlay:

Nieminen x Robredo - $2.15

gl

Adding:


Soderling to beat Gonzo - $1.70

gl


All won

betowiec
03-13-2006, 03:31 AM
Monfils at 1.485 for $175, Arod @1.312 for $650

parlay (monfils, gato and robby) for $50 is still alive

bad gambler
03-13-2006, 05:54 AM
Also adding

Srichaphan to beat Ginepri - $2.20

gl


like taking candy from a baby

Horatio Caine
03-13-2006, 12:11 PM
Good stuff Prabu :yeah:

Horatio Caine
03-13-2006, 12:23 PM
Verdasco over Karlovic might be good. The Croat has a dreadful record vs lefthanders and Verdasco possesses reasonable passing shots.


Right on the money...except I placed no money :scratch:

Horatio Caine
03-13-2006, 12:24 PM
Oh and Srichaphan over Ginepri is worth something. Only thing to be wary of is that both play similar games...but the Thai is in better form. As I mentioned before, h2h means little at times (Blake 0/6 vs Hewitt and Massu 1/4 vs Calleri to name 2 recent ones) and it could mean little again here.

:lol:

Horatio Caine
03-13-2006, 12:26 PM
same here :lol: bloody willhills

They take the piss sometimes I'm sure :lol:

Horatio Caine
03-13-2006, 12:27 PM
Seems like most people cleaned up...good stuff! :yeah:

Now Monday's plays are a whole new kettle of fish...they look rather difficult :scared:

betowiec
03-13-2006, 12:38 PM
Monfils at 1.485 for $175, Arod @1.312 for $650

parlay (monfils, gato and robby) for $50 is still alive

thanks ginepri for not showing up again

at least Gael and Arod brought some $$

TwistyServe
03-14-2006, 05:14 AM
Review of my R1 weekend.. again I'm trying out a new strategy with 50% wins = profit.. did pretty good but I got a little overwhelmed with too many wages all at once.:

Big play:
Fish over Volandri @1.63 Win

Regular play:
Tursunov x Schuettler x Domachowska @3.05 Win
Safin over Moya @1.794 Win
Monfils to beat Morrison @1.51 Win
Spadea x Vliegen x Kirilenko @2.07 Win
Robredo over Carlsen @1.48 Win
Nalbandian x Safarova @1.69 Win
Fish x Safarova @2.25 Win
Calleri to beat Massu @1.806 Lose
Vik to beat Heynch @1.758 Lose
Capdeville over Sanguinetti @1.935 Lose
Murray to beat Davydonky @2.10 Lose
Ginepri @1.8 Lose

Small plays:
Braccialli over Dom @2.780 Lose
Chela over Benneteau @1.704 Lose
Acasuso to beat Roddick @4.7 Lose
Fish x Ginepri @2.7 Lose

Big play:
1 win

Regular plays:
7 wins
5 Loses

Small play:
4 loses