Fortitudinous Friday - ATP R1 [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Fortitudinous Friday - ATP R1

TwistyServe
03-09-2006, 03:31 PM
Leans in bold.. Post yours!

1.800 A. Calleri vs N. Massu 2.150
2.320 A. Seppi vs P-H.Mathieu 1.704
2.690 B. Pashanski vs R. Schuettler 1.559
1.197 D. Tursunov vs T. Behrend 5.570
8.520 D. Young vs T. Henman 1.120
1.671 F. Mayer vs M. Philippoussis 2.390
1.917 G. Rusedski vs S. Wawrinka 1.990
1.370 I. Karlovic vs T. Zib 3.500
2.03 J. Bjorkman vs C.Rochus 1.885
2.000 K. Carlsen vs G. Muller 1.909
1.671 L. Horna vs D. Bracciali 2.390
1.524 M. Mirnyi vs C. Saulnier 2.770
1.694 P. Goldstein vs A.Martin 2.340
1.943 P. Kohlschreiber vs F. Serra 1.962
1.444 R. Soderling vs J. Melzer 3.050
1.820 R. Vik vs J. Hernych 2.120
4.60 S. Querrey vs T. Dent 1.250
1.259 V. Spadea vs C. Berlocq 4.560
2.740 W. Moodie vs P. Srichaphan 1.543
1.775 X. Malisse vs F. Santoro 2.090

So far only bet waged is Calleri.. Will probably grab some more before Friday!

Horatio Caine
03-09-2006, 04:12 PM
I only agree with two of those...and I'm not posting which as I've been cursed with these threads :lol:

TwistyServe
03-09-2006, 04:14 PM
I only agree with two of those...and I'm not posting which as I've been cursed with these threads :lol:

But its Fortitudinous Friday.. not Shocking or Twisted friday! I think I know which ones you're agreeing to anyway lol

Horatio Caine
03-09-2006, 04:21 PM
But its Fortitudinous Friday.. not Shocking or Twisted friday! I think I know which ones you're agreeing to anyway lol

Go ahead...I'll tell you whether you're right in your assumptions ;)

TwistyServe
03-09-2006, 04:25 PM
Go ahead...I'll tell you whether you're right in your assumptions ;)

I know you dont like Calleri, or Skud, or Horna.

I'm guessing you'd agree to Vik, Carlsen, or Wawrinka.. Since you say two of the three, its probably Vik and Carlsen. Maybe Carlsen because he plays leftys well? Not sure what his stats vs lefties is.

Maybe im just wrong lol

Horatio Caine
03-09-2006, 04:30 PM
You're right with one :lol:

Freeze17171
03-09-2006, 05:47 PM
I like Wawrinka here, Rusedski hasn't impressed me as of late, but Wawrinka is playing the best tennis of young his career.

Horna seems like a good play as well, he's coming off a tournament win and Braccieli isn't the strongest of opponents. The odds seem in favor of Horna.

I'll look into the matches more later...

coreyschucky
03-09-2006, 05:51 PM
Before researching the matchups these 3 look good:

Bjorkman, Karlovic and Goldstein

sports freak
03-09-2006, 08:09 PM
Take Stan the Man to the bank (Adee Gee's boyfriend) He'll make Greg look stupid,Leaning on X-man over Magician,Pashanski over Shittler,Phillip K n J Bjorkaman!!!!

Back later to post one or 2!!!

sports freak
03-09-2006, 08:10 PM
Before researching the matchups these 3 look good:

Bjorkman, Karlovic and Goldstein

Agree Corey

Andre♥
03-09-2006, 09:50 PM
Spadea over Berlocq is free money.

Even I could beat Berlocq in hardcourt.

bad gambler
03-09-2006, 10:19 PM
Spadea over Berlocq is free money.

Even I could beat Berlocq in hardcourt.


:lol:

TwistyServe
03-09-2006, 10:38 PM
Spadea over Berlocq is free money.

Even I could beat Berlocq in hardcourt.

I'm curious how Berlocq got his ranking so high for direct entry into a TMS. He hasnt ever won an ATP match.. and he doesnt look so hot in the CHers..

Freeze17171
03-09-2006, 10:41 PM
Yeah, unfortunately Spadea can lose to anybody. I would never feel confident riding Spadea at those odds, regardless of who he is playing.

Andre♥
03-09-2006, 11:01 PM
I'm curious how Berlocq got his ranking so high for direct entry into a TMS. He hasnt ever won an ATP match.. and he doesnt look so hot in the CHers..

Berlocq is a rather good clay challanger player.

But nothing more than that.

TwistyServe
03-09-2006, 11:34 PM
My two official plays:

Calleri to beat Massu @1.806
Calleri leads 3-1 H2h only losing to Massu on clay where they split sets. Calleri is a better player on hardcourt and can't see him losing to Massu today and with 1.8 odds, I'll take a chance.

Vik to beat Heynch @1.758
Vik has been impressive as of late, easily beating Tipsarevic and then taking out Berdych at Dubai. He even broke the FedEx before losing in straights. Herych on the other hand is't so hot this year so I'll take a chance at 1.758 and say Jan doesn't break his slump this week.

Horatio Caine
03-09-2006, 11:46 PM
Agree with Vik but I don't agree with the Calleri analysis - Massu is a better player on a hardcourt and he is getting the better results right now. Sure, Calleri might win...but I don't buy the analysis at all ;)

TwistyServe
03-09-2006, 11:50 PM
Sure, Calleri might win...

Then I'm hoping for the "might" to happen. :p

Horatio Caine
03-09-2006, 11:57 PM
Seriously man, I can't recall from memory one good hardcourt result for Calleri since 2005.

Massu was returning from injury last year...he even made R3/R4 US Open? He is a double Olympic champion...come on!

You need to do a little more research to make your analysis credible...or think before you post. ;) The GGL bet today was a prime example of where if you had done a little research I can guarantee you wouldn't have touched the match...or you would have gone for Kim :p

TwistyServe
03-10-2006, 12:05 AM
You need to do a little more research to make your analysis credible...or think before you post. ;)

Dude I only write a few lines of analysis when I have time. Sometimes I dont write it at all like today and yesterdays qual picks. Reserach helps if its not bias, and I use my gut instinct often too. If all the reserach in the world could predict matches at a better rate some people in the forums would be very rich. I just don't think its all as cracked up to be.

Sure GGL got steamrolled but hey you hit some you lose some.

Horatio Caine
03-10-2006, 12:14 AM
Dude I only write a few lines of analysis when I have time. Sometimes I dont write it at all like today and yesterdays qual picks. Reserach helps if its not bias, and I use my gut instinct often too. If all the reserach in the world could predict matches at a better rate some people in the forums would be very rich. I just don't think its all as cracked up to be.

Sure GGL got steamrolled but hey you hit some you lose some.

Mate you're missing the point...all I'm saying is if you're posting analysis, make sure that it makes the pick credible....if you don't have time, don't write any analysis - it is better than missing the boat completely.

30 seconds on atptennis.com would inform you that GGL had some wins over imferior players this year and Calleri isn't a good hardcourter. Obviously it means little if the bet wins...but the analysis should match the bet properly :lol:

contrails
03-10-2006, 12:17 AM
Mate you're missing the point...all I'm saying is if you're posting analysis, make sure that it makes the pick credible....if you don't have time, don't write any analysis - it is better than missing the boat completely.

30 seconds on atptennis.com would inform you that GGL had some wins over imferior players this year and Calleri isn't a good hardcourter. Obviously it means little if the bet wins...but the analysis should match the bet properly :lol:


Here we go again :rolleyes: Maybe we should rename this thread "Let's cut the crap Friday" it seemed to work last time :devil:

contrails
03-10-2006, 12:20 AM
Mate you're missing the point...all I'm saying is if you're posting analysis, make sure that it makes the pick credible....if you don't have time, don't write any analysis - it is better than missing the boat completely.

30 seconds on atptennis.com would inform you that GGL had some wins over imferior players this year and Calleri isn't a good hardcourter. Obviously it means little if the bet wins...but the analysis should match the bet properly :lol:


Jez, Twist has been doing pretty well over the last few weeks, you shouldn't bag someone who at least has good results.... Glass houses and stones comes to mind.

Horatio Caine
03-10-2006, 12:23 AM
I'm not bagging him and I'm not here to fight...please crawl back under your rock. I big you adieu :wavey:

contrails
03-10-2006, 12:28 AM
I'm not bagging him and I'm not here to fight...please crawl back under your rock. I big you adieu :wavey:

If only you'd crawl back under your rock, this would be a much more peaceful place :eek:

You sound like a broken record sometimes man... cut the crap

Horatio Caine
03-10-2006, 12:32 AM
That's rich coming from someone who doesn't contribute anything here :shrug:

Nevertheless, I believe in freedom of speech

tiptopdaisy
03-10-2006, 12:39 AM
my picks:

Carlsen
Vik
Stan "The Man" Wawrinka

The Gucci one
03-10-2006, 12:50 AM
So Jez the fact that Calleri leads HTH 4 - 1 having won the last 4 matches does not come into it?

By the way 2 of those were Indoor Hard and another on Carpet(all straight sets to Calleri) as against Massu's win on clay.

Doctor Dance
03-10-2006, 01:14 AM
So Jez the fact that Calleri leads HTH 4 - 1 having won the last 4 matches does not come into it?

By the way 2 of those were Indoor Hard and another on Carpet(all straight sets to Calleri) as against Massu\'s win on clay.


I guess Jez did not spend 30 seconds on the ATP website today to check those facts out :o

Doctor Dance
03-10-2006, 01:15 AM
My two official plays:

Calleri to beat Massu @1.806
Calleri leads 3-1 H2h only losing to Massu on clay where they split sets. Calleri is a better player on hardcourt and can\'t see him losing to Massu today and with 1.8 odds, I\'ll take a chance.

Vik to beat Heynch @1.758
Vik has been impressive as of late, easily beating Tipsarevic and then taking out Berdych at Dubai. He even broke the FedEx before losing in straights. Herych on the other hand is\'t so hot this year so I\'ll take a chance at 1.758 and say Jan doesn\'t break his slump this week.


Keep up the good work Twistserve and do not listen to Jez, he is no position to be lecturing you on how to bet based on his record in his link on his signature

Corey Feldman
03-10-2006, 01:22 AM
i dont trust 100% in any of these matches but anyway..

like Wawa over Gregory..
vik over Herny
scud over mayer ( :scratch: at myself why)
moodie over sricha
malisse over santoro
goldielox over Beto martin
pashanski over schuettler perhaps.. despite boris seeming to be a 1-surface pony (clay obviously)

too poor odds for Henman and tursunov wins..
and dont trust Spadea no matter who he plays, that 2-6 1-6 smashing by goldstein last week was pathetic and sums up what a brainless/lazy idiot vince can be when he feels like it.

think i'd rather wait for the big guns to come out early next week..

Corey Feldman
03-10-2006, 01:25 AM
calleri over massu also looks good, HTH bigtime for Calleri, could easily been 4-0 instead of 3-1 (with last 3 wins) and he's had a few ok results recently.

TwistyServe
03-10-2006, 02:16 AM
don't write any analysis - it is better than missing the boat completely.


Dude I don't want to sound offensive and take this as a neutral tone.. But why do you come to my picks and say if you agree with this and disagree with that etc.. and only my picks, no one elses.. If you had a good record I might be influenced but frankly you're at about a 50% strike rate and because you take so many favorites your average odds is well below 2.0.. hence you're in red for the year. All the hard core anaylsis and expert tennis knowledge couldn't give you profit for this year so why should anyone listen?

On a different note: Right now I'm shifting my strategy to wagers of odds 1.8-2.3 and trying get an average of around 2.1. Lets see how this works out. I'm starting to notice 1.5 favorites lose just as often as 1.9 matches so why not go with the more value? I'm seeing lots of punters like Anders with +40 units and they have a 40-50% strike rate. I believe this is the only way to make money in the long run, by taking value bets that dont necessarily win all the time. Some of Anders picks may seem far fetched but he's better then both of us :) at punting.

I see Calleri as a true value bet. He could lose he could win but expert research may or may not predict that result.. In the long run there should be lots of profits.

bad gambler
03-10-2006, 02:25 AM
On a different note: Right now I'm shifting my strategy to wagers of odds 1.8-2.3 and trying get an average of around 2.1. Lets see how this works out. I'm starting to notice 1.5 favorites lose just as often as 1.9 matches so why not go with the more value? I'm seeing lots of punters like Anders with +40 units and they have a 40-50% strike rate. I believe this is the only way to make money in the long run, by taking value bets that dont necessarily win all the time. Some of Anders picks may seem far fetched but he's better then both of us :) at punting.

I see Calleri as a true value bet. He could lose he could win but expert research may or may not predict that result.. In the long run there should be lots of profits.


There is no problem with that approach, only thing and most important thing to keep in mind is that you still need to believe that these "value" bets will actually win. End of the day it comes down to whether a player will win his match, not whether he is a "value" bet. Striving to get a combination of both is perfect :)

TwistyServe
03-10-2006, 02:28 AM
There is no problem with that approach, only thing and most important thing to keep in mind is that you still need to believe that these "value" bets will actually win. End of the day it comes down to whether a player will win his match, not whether he is a "value" bet. Striving to get a combination of both is perfect :)

Well said! :cool:

Anders
03-10-2006, 02:29 AM
YTD: 64-65 +38.43 units

Been a good yr so far, bound to go cold for a while...

WTD: 1-0 +1.34 units

Indian Wells


Wawrinka -101 o Rusedski (1)
Kohlschreiber -103 o Serra (1)
Philippoussis +142 o Mayer (1)
Carlsen +102 o Muller (1)
Bjorkman +101 o C Rochus (1)
Santoro +114 o Malisse (1)
Vik/Calleri +202 (1)

GL all

TwistyServe
03-10-2006, 02:34 AM
YTD: 64-65 +38.43 units

Been a good yr so far, bound to go cold for a while...

WTD: 1-0 +1.34 units

Indian Wells


Wawrinka -101 o Rusedski (1)
Kohlschreiber -103 o Serra (1)
Philippoussis +142 o Mayer (1)
Carlsen +102 o Muller (1)
Bjorkman +101 o C Rochus (1)
Santoro +114 o Malisse (1)
Vik/Calleri +202 (1)

GL all

Very nice Vik/Calleri combo :yeah:

I might put small hand on wawinka, carlsen, and skud as they were initial leans too.. hope the order of play has them towards end of the day though.

TwistyServe
03-10-2006, 05:22 AM
Maybe my final bet for Friday:

A high juice chalk parlay.. I haven't waged on any parlays over 3.0 this year but I think this one is less risk then the juice implies. Probably won't play another parlay with this high odds in a while:

Tursunov x Schuettler x Domachowska @3.05

- Tursunov over Behrend is straight forward. I don't think Behrend has a chance against an in form Tursunov, especially since Berhrend stays on clay most of the year.

- Schuettler over Pashaniski is pretty straight forward as well. Schuetter isn't the same player as he was in 2003 but Pashanski's hard court record since 2000 is 6-14 vs his clay record of 120-62 (most are challengers). Schuettler has shown improvements this year so I'll talk him at 1.55 odds to increase this parlay.

- Domachowska was impressive in Memphis making the finals and pushing the viking girl Arvidson to three sets. She is 1-0 h2h over Shaughnessy, who has had a very slow year losing in the first round in 5 tournaments. Adding an in form Marta to this parlay to juice up the money. This leg of the parlay poses the most risk because its WTA :p

Odds are one of the three will lose, and I realize that, but I still feel all three should win. Lets hope things play out right and lets get paid :yeah:

Mistaflava
03-10-2006, 05:55 AM
Round 1: Friday, March 10, 2006



Florrent Serra -107 over Philipp Kohlschreiber ($535 to win $500)

This line is just weird but it is also too good to be true. Well hopefully that is not the case and Serra is not a trap bet. I was on Serra in his last match when he lost to Juan Antonio Marin in three sets but that was then and this is now. Over the last 12 months, Serra has been very good on clay courts but also has a decent winning percentage on the hard stuff. In fact, Serra won the tournament in Adelaid this year and after a rough patch of matches on the South American clay court tour, look for Serra to regain form and come into this match with a chip on his shoulder. His last match on this surface was at the Aussie Open where he lost to a decent hard courts in David Ferrer. Prior to that, he beat Santoro, Malisse, Hrbaty, Nieminen, Robredo and Llodra all since the start of 2006 and all on hardcourts. So how the hell are the odds like this against the pathetic german Philipp Kohlschreiber who is 0-8 lifetime in Tennis Master Series matches. Although Kohlschreiber has played some decent matches this season against Hewitt and Verdasco, I don't think Serra is going to give him many chances to break. The German has a losing percentage on North American soil and has lost six of his last eight tiebreaks on the surface. This could very well be a back-and-forth match between the two because both have been unpredictable as of late. However, Serra does have the better game on this surface and unless he is injured, there is no reason for him to lose this match. Thanks for the money!



I will post all my other plays at the link below :eek:

DeccyB123
03-10-2006, 06:38 AM
My Plays:

Calleri @ 1.72 x 2 Units
Bjorkman @ 1.9 x 2 Units
Malisse @ 1.72 x 2 Units
Martin @ 2.2
Pashanski @ 2.62

JMG
03-10-2006, 06:46 AM
Vik x Horna @2.75 :yeah:

DeccyB123
03-10-2006, 07:19 AM
Add:

Melzer @ 2.75
Carlsen @ 2

Horatio Caine
03-10-2006, 07:37 AM
TwistServe - I'm just offering constructive criticism...I'm not explaining myself well, but just be careful ;)

Keep up the good work :yeah:

Horatio Caine
03-10-2006, 07:39 AM
So Jez the fact that Calleri leads HTH 4 - 1 having won the last 4 matches does not come into it?

By the way 2 of those were Indoor Hard and another on Carpet(all straight sets to Calleri) as against Massu's win on clay.

H2h doesn't mean everything...I think there was a match last week that proved that- can't remember which. You cannot dispute the fact that Massu is the better form player right now and has decent results on hard ;)

Horatio Caine
03-10-2006, 07:42 AM
Keep up the good work Twistserve and do not listen to Jez, he is no position to be lecturing you on how to bet based on his record in his link on his signature

Drop the attitude man - I'm not here to fight and tired of this. I'm not disputing the fact I'm a poor gambler :confused: But I provide my record because I'm not afraid to show it. Once I work out how to bet I shall do quite well.

How many others provide their records for the year yet alone the week? :scratch:

...and feel free to provide (an insight into your) picks some time

Horatio Caine
03-10-2006, 07:43 AM
I'm a little concerned about the Vik bandwagon... :scared: I hope not too many people are on him :lol:

Horatio Caine
03-10-2006, 07:47 AM
Good luck everyone today :yeah:

coup-du-cobra
03-10-2006, 08:00 AM
wawrinka over rusedski
horna over bracciali
malisse over santoro

none of these bets are very safe but he is my analysis:

H2H: rusedski - wawrinka: 2-0 in atp events. close match last year in TMS Montreal where Rusedski is basically at home. I think current form shouls give the edge to Wawrinka.

Bracciali is a very poor all-rounder. You cannot call Horna a hardcourt specialist but he's on a winnig streak and I doubt bracciali can stop it.

H2H: Malisse - Santoro: 2-0 . Santoro reached is peak at AO . Now he will need a bit of rest. Latest results in Rotterdam and Dubai were disappointed. However, although is extremely talented and for sure capable of beating the frenchman, he's definitly a head case. So you cannot 100% sure.

Horatio Caine
03-10-2006, 08:04 AM
Yeah you're right coup - very little is safe R1.

Wawrinka is the better form player...not so sure about Horna...Santoro definitely has the edge in that match. His wrong-footing slices etc will be a nightmare for Malisse's lower leg and brain. That said, it wouldn't surprise me if there was a retirement or Malisse doesn't take to the court.

coup-du-cobra
03-10-2006, 09:46 AM
HEY, jez, what do you think of philippoussis over mayer @2.1 and Carlsen over Muller @2 ?

andye
03-10-2006, 09:46 AM
Jez, Twist has been doing pretty well over the last few weeks, you shouldn't bag someone who at least has good results.... Glass houses and stones comes to mind.


You are an aboslute fool. Show some respect to a forumite who is both more informed than you and I am guessing more successful. Picking matches purely on a hunch and implying that Callieri is the Fedrer of South American clay courters is foolish. Now as Jez said get back under that rock.

George_Hanson
03-10-2006, 10:22 AM
H2h doesn't mean everything...I think there was a match last week that proved that- can't remember which.

Hewitt - Blake 6:0 ?

now 6:1

contrails
03-10-2006, 10:23 AM
You are an aboslute fool. Show some respect to a forumite who is both more informed than you and I am guessing more successful. Picking matches purely on a hunch and implying that Callieri is the Fedrer of South American clay courters is foolish. Now as Jez said get back under that rock.


Be careful who you call a fool andye, although I may not have as great a depth of knowledge of the game as some on the forum, I sure know how to tell who the good tipsters are and I have profited greatly from them, cheers Anders I follow your picks in the other forum :wavey: . Jez is definately not one, from what I've seen he seems to constantly criticise Twist. I'll be the first to admit I don't contribute to picks, but that's only because I know my limitiations.... Jez does not, he only knows Twists limitations..... and he lets him know. As Twist said, if he had a good track record, by all means offer. But when you're no good yourself, it's a bit hypocritical. Frankly I'm tired of reading it and I'm sure alot of others here are too. That's why I came out of my so called rock to speak up.

I like Twists picks and think he has a natural talent for tipping. He learns from mistakes and isn't affraid of going with gut instinct. These are marks of good tipsters.

Andye from what I've seen of your tips, you're very much in Jez's league, and good luck to you. I wish you both good luck in your tips and handicapping ability. Maybe then someone may take notice of any tips or critisism you make. But until then, I highly recommend you to retire under your rock as well.

bad gambler
03-10-2006, 10:33 AM
No more feuding in here please, stick to making selections or don't post in here at all

coup3z
03-10-2006, 10:39 AM
Massu @ 2,26
Mirnyi @ 1,52

reasoning:
here (http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/showthread.php?t=2570)

bad gambler
03-10-2006, 10:41 AM
Kohlschreiber to beat Serra - $2.00

good luck

Horatio Caine
03-10-2006, 11:32 AM
HEY, jez, what do you think of philippoussis over mayer @2.1 and Carlsen over Muller @2 ?

Anything involving the Poo is risky mate :lol: Obviously he has a strong serve when he gets it in, but Mayer is pretty consistent. I really don't have a clue to be honest - sorry!

I'd favour Carlsen slightly there. Muller matches up well with serve-volleyers but the surface favours him more than Ken. That said, Ken has been impressive in losing only to decent players this year and beating anyone else...55% Carlsen ;)

Horatio Caine
03-10-2006, 11:34 AM
Hewitt - Blake 6:0 ?

now 6:1

That's the one - well remembered! :yeah: :lol:

Horatio Caine
03-10-2006, 11:39 AM
No more feuding in here please, stick to making selections or don't post in here at all

I agree with that. Can I just make a point - I am fed up with all of the negative comments that suddenly pour out of the woodwork when I say something slightly controversial. If I am as rubbish as you say I am, do me the decency of emailing me about it or posting constructive criticism in my thread - the current behaviour is pathetic, especially from individuals don't even contribute their bets/thoughts on matches.

This is a forum - everyone has a right to comment on others' plays, both positive and negative. Constructive criticism is fine (please inform me if I have crossed that line today) but outright bashing is not.

Thanks

Dollars & Cents
03-10-2006, 12:05 PM
There is no problem with that approach, only thing and most important thing to keep in mind is that you still need to believe that these "value" bets will actually win. End of the day it comes down to whether a player will win his match, not whether he is a "value" bet. Striving to get a combination of both is perfect :)

Yeah...bang on from the 'Big Man' once again. There can be value at 100/1, 1000/1 in that the odds represented are higher than the probable outcome. However, 'true' value is one that is also a likely 'winning' outcome. But in the long-term you will only be profitable if you are a 'value' punter as opposed to a 'winners' punter as none of us have crystal balls.

Anyway, only one play for me today:

Jonas Bjorkman(2.020) to beat Christophe Rochus @ 10Bet

contrails
03-10-2006, 12:07 PM
No more feuding in here please, stick to making selections or don't post in here at all


Totally agree Bad Gambler and Jez, feuding and making disparaging comments are no good to the overall purpose of this forum. So coments such as:

"Besides, you also haven't done as well as you have bragged over the last couple of days either...please don't mislead people as it makes you look stupid.."

"Okay, so you're a pro now - whatever!"

"...you seem to be a fake like many people."

Should be avoided...they are not constructive critisism. I hope the people involved take heed.

George_Hanson
03-10-2006, 12:13 PM
BG, of course you got the point, but I would say that only value betting is the key for being a succesful punter. You said "only thing and most important thing to keep in mind is that you still need to believe that these "value" bets will actually win. End of the day it comes down to whether a player will win his match, not whether he is a "value" bet". Actually I wouldn't have nothing against winning f.e. 30% of my bets with odds 5.00. If I were betting only on such odds, I would have to believe that my "value bets" will win once in every three matches. I wouldn't mind losing other two.

The key to succesful betting is to find the edge over bookmaker. Both sides have the same objectives - to win money. To do that, bookies set their odds with estimating the probability of the money distribution from the punters. You have to estimate the chances of both players and if it's bigger than the probability derived from the odds (1/odds) - you will be succesful in the long run. And it really doesn't matter if it's 1.02 or 12.00

contrails
03-10-2006, 12:20 PM
BG, of course you got the point, but I would say that only value betting is the key for being a succesful punter. You said "only thing and most important thing to keep in mind is that you still need to believe that these "value" bets will actually win. End of the day it comes down to whether a player will win his match, not whether he is a "value" bet". Actually I wouldn't have nothing against winning f.e. 30% of my bets with odds 5.00. If I were betting only on such odds, I would have to believe that my "value bets" will win once in every three matches. I wouldn't mind losing other two.

The key to succesful betting is to find the edge over bookmaker. Both sides have the same objectives - to win money. To do that, bookies set their odds with estimating the probability of the money distribution from the punters. You have to estimate the chances of both players and if it's bigger than the probability derived from the odds (1/odds) - you will be succesful in the long run. And it really doesn't matter if it's 1.02 or 12.00


True, but from what I've seen, odds of around 1.8 are more likely the odds you can get the edge over bookmakers. The good tipsters I've seen tend to make more picks above odds of around 2.2 or higher and win around 50% of the time. These guys have a higher roi and also a higher total units one over time. So the key is to win at least 50%ish of the time with average odds over 2.2-2.6

George_Hanson
03-10-2006, 12:24 PM
True, but from what I've seen, odds of around 1.8 are more likely the odds you can get the edge over bookmakers. The good tipsters I've seen tend to make more picks above odds of around 2.2 or higher and win around 50% of the time. These guys have a higher roi and also a higher total units one over time. So the key is to win at least 50%ish of the time with average odds over 2.2-2.6

Hi contrails,

the fact is that it's easier to find value in underdogs, as people tend to overestimate the "big names" with shitty odds. If you were winning on odds 2.2 with 50% of time, you would have ca. 20% ROI, which is huge (I'm talking about the long run - 2,3 years, not one tournament). So you are right in some point, but winning 50% of 2.2 odds would be more or less the same as winning 100% with 1.02. So it all comes to the subjective estimation of probability.

Horatio Caine
03-10-2006, 12:25 PM
Totally agree Bad Gambler and Jez, feuding and making disparaging comments are no good to the overall purpose of this forum. So coments such as:

"Besides, you also haven't done as well as you have bragged over the last couple of days either...please don't mislead people as it makes you look stupid.."

"Okay, so you're a pro now - whatever!"

"...you seem to be a fake like many people."

Should be avoided...they are not constructive critisism. I hope the people involved take heed.

Good research :lol:

I did mention in my post that I wanted references to today's behaviour...not 2 weeks ago, whether it is true or not. Please read a post carefully before you respond. :rolleyes:

But in essence, I agree with what you say :yeah:

contrails
03-10-2006, 12:36 PM
Hi contrails,

the fact is that it's easier to find value in underdogs, as people tend to overestimate the "big names" with shitty odds. If you were winning on odds 2.2 with 50% of time, you would have ca. 20% ROI, which is huge (I'm talking about the long run - 2,3 years, not one tournament). So you are right in some point, but winning 50% of 2.2 odds would be more or less the same as winning 100% with 1.02. So it all comes to the subjective estimation of probability.


I agree with all you have said George, I haven't seen anyone getting odds of 1.10 right 100% of the time though. I have seen good tipsters such as Anders get odds above 2.3-3.0 right 50% of the time on average though with many picks. But haven't seen any tipsters who make 10-15 picks a week get tips below odds of 1.6 correct more than 60% of the time. So in the long run, guys who pick the dogs do better as there is more room for error...

olix
03-10-2006, 12:39 PM
- Raymond over Loit @1.85 cannot see any reasoning behind those odds, maybe Raymond is tired or something after that three-setter. Medium play.

coup-du-cobra
03-10-2006, 12:54 PM
Sorry, but there is a lot of crap on this forum which makes it difficult to read. the gambler's lounge should remain a place where gamblers discuss about matches and not about their own problems.

contrails
03-10-2006, 01:07 PM
Good research :lol:

I did mention in my post that I wanted references to today's behaviour...not 2 weeks ago, whether it is true or not. Please read a post carefully before you respond. :rolleyes:

But in essence, I agree with what you say :yeah:


Ok, I'll take you up on that.... what irked me today was your quote to twist "30 seconds on atptennis.com would inform you that........."

Here's a guy who's doing better than you in his picks and you are using a tone towards him that makes you sound like you're superior to him. If you wanted to make a point, give the guy more respect.. no ones perfect...

Seasoned bettors like BG and George Hansen never use these tones... they always give their opinions but in a much more humble way....


Now that I've made my point I'd like to appologise to you. I over reacted a bit from annoyance. I have been quite impressed with Twists performance of late, and felt he was hard done by with your tone today.

I won't be discussing this topic any further so I hope all is good now.
Best of luck with your plays :cool: :cool:

George_Hanson
03-10-2006, 01:25 PM
Seasoned bettors like BG and George Hansen never use these tones... they always give their opinions but in a much more humble way....




Actually, I was much more harsh in other forum than jez here. But I stopped after the obvious thing came to my mind - betting is as subjective as it can be. And personal attacks? Well, they are just binary numbers, which appear as letters on your monitor screen. So noone should care...

TwistyServe
03-10-2006, 01:51 PM
Looks like a lot more on Calleri than Massu... could be the trap of the day, or the money maker of the day :angel:

Lukic101
03-10-2006, 02:37 PM
Since posting : 0-0

R.Soderling over J.Melzer (400$ to win 596$)

dbnumberone
03-10-2006, 03:59 PM
[QUOTE=George_Hanson]betting is as subjective as it can be. QUOTE]

Exactly.
I'd argue this is a value bet
Bet to win a unit on Henman
Long odds, but Young hasn't even done anything on the futures tour, & gets another free pass? IMO it's just a gift from the gambling gods
He should be a bet even for anyone shy about laying cash - make your bet today a parlay at least & win a couple extra bucks.
As I've been saying...:)

August 29th Betting against Young has been a cash cow for me all year, no change this tourney
10 units on Galimberti
July 18th p.s.Save a couple bucks for tomorrow to bet against D.Young!
July 19th Gambill to d. Young - Pound it!
April 18th why take young until he can win a set, let alone a match - I'm on Calatrava

George_Hanson
03-10-2006, 04:24 PM
Yes, but Young can't lose forever. I doubt he can take something from Henman today (or tomorrow, I don't remember OOP), but you got max. 1.11 for Tim (or 6/55 in UK odds or -916,67 in American pricing).

With 1.11 you got the estimated probability by bookie of ca. 90% (exactly 90,09%). And if you think that Henman is capable of winning against Young more than 9 out of 10 times (or even better - more than 90 out of 100) in exactly the same conditions - you got the edge over bookmaker.

Of course it's difficult even to imagine them playing 100 times in similar conditions, but try to do so. They play once and tomorrow they play for the second time, then for the third and everything repeats 100 days in a row with similar temperature, the same number of spectators, on the same court etc... Would Henman win more than 90 times? If you think that yes - bet on 1.11, cause you have found a value in your bet.

dbnumberone
03-10-2006, 04:25 PM
But I provide my record because I'm not afraid to show it. Once I work out how to bet I shall do quite well.

How many others provide their records for the year yet alone the week?

Second that - no one should be criticizing, period, unless they have the stones to be posting their exact bets.
& for everyone hyping Anders (no offense here Anders), his first post said he was 28 units up for the year, so him being up to 38 a month later is nice, but his record since posting is even on picks w/ a 10 unit profit, so lets not go overboard & say that his system is the only way to skin a cat.
Again, no offense Anders - you're the man for posting your exact plays & amt., & you're style certainly smoked my favs betting the last month.
I'm now 51-22 ytd, they've all been posted here, up 11.9 units after finishing last week up an amazing 0.7.
GL all, esp. Anders, Jez & Flava who aren't afraid to show us where they're coming from.

George_Hanson
03-10-2006, 04:28 PM
Exactly, noone has the right to criticize if they have no view on the criticized person record. I don't care if jez loses 8 bets today or twistedserve wins 15 oh his bets tomorrow. When you show me your record for - let's say - last full year, I will be able to praise or criticize

dbnumberone
03-10-2006, 04:33 PM
Yes, but Young can't lose forever. I doubt he can take something from Henman today (or tomorrow, I don't remember OOP), but you got max. 1.11 for Tim (or 6/55 in UK odds or -916,67 in American pricing).

With 1.11 you got the estimated probability by bookie of ca. 90% (exactly 90,09%). And if you think that Henman is capable of winning against Young more than 9 out of 10 times (or even better - more than 90 out of 100) in exactly the same conditions - you got the edge over bookmaker.

Of course it's difficult even to imagine them playing 100 times in similar conditions, but try to do so. They play once and tomorrow they play for the second time, then for the third and everything repeats 100 days in a row with similar temperature, the same number of spectators, on the same court etc... Would Henman win more than 90 times? If you think that yes - bet on 1.11, cause you have found a value in your bet.

Excellent analysis.
I'm not going to bet against Young forever - if he had just done well in a challenger & got someone like Salzenstein in the first round I wouldn't bet it, but in this case, yeah, I think Henman would win more than 90 out of 100 - injury being the only way Young wins.
Just my opinion, again, more than 1 way to get it done - I'd say the only wrong way to do it is to consistently bet on massive dogs, which is why AceMaan isn't around anymore.

George_Hanson
03-10-2006, 04:40 PM
Actually it wasn't an analysis, but the mathematical basics of betting :). (I have the master degree from statistical approach to sports betting, so you can believe me :) ) But I can agree that Henman should win today (I can't see any other outcome and I also think 1.11 has some value in it), but also look at the fact that with constant betting on such odds will give you ca. 10% ROI in the long run if you hit 100% of your bets, which is of course impossible.

All the calculations I made in this thread were made in my head, so maybe some numbers are bad, don't care about it.

dbnumberone
03-10-2006, 04:44 PM
Actually it wasn't an analysis, but the mathematical basics of betting :). (I have the master degree from statistical approach to sports betting, so you can believe me :) ) But I can agree that Henman should win today (I can't see any other outcome and I also think 1.11 has some value in it), but also look at the fact that with constant betting on such odds will give you ca. 10% ROI in the long run if you hit 100% of your bets, which is of course impossible.

All the calculations I made in this thread were made in my head, so maybe some numbers are bad, don't care about it.

Yeah, I guess my point was 1.1 isn't automatically a terrible bet.
Unless it's on Davydenko, in which I won't be fooled twice :o :)

TwistyServe
03-10-2006, 04:48 PM
Yeah, I guess my point was 1.1 isn't automatically a terrible bet.
Unless it's on Davydenko, in which I won't be fooled twice :o :)

Davydenko bet wasn't too bad but taking him on low odds is risky because he loses to lots of lesser players.

However in particular, Korolev is no pushover, and may be a force in the future. He turned pro in 2005 and I think he's a very hot prospect. He was hitting some big ball against Grosjean after beating Davy.

Kinda like when Tursunov beat Safin in r1 of wimbledon.. Everyone though turs was a fluke but look where he is now.. of course at the time safin sucked on grass so :lol:

elroyf
03-10-2006, 04:50 PM
1st post in this forum. So a 0-0 record.

First bet: Goldstein to beat Martin

Goldstein is in good form and had a great run at Las Vegas beating Ginepri, Spadea and Malisse and took a set off Hewitt in the semis. He is good on hard court. On the other hand, Alberto Marting is mainly a clay court player and has done well on that surface this year. But he has played only thee matches on hard court this year and won one. Not a good record on hard courts in total. Goldstein to win :) !

Corey Feldman
03-10-2006, 05:29 PM
Wawrinka @1.83 to KO Rusedski.

stan looks in great form this year and starting to show some of his talent on HC, Rusedski's fearsome serve is no longer a huge weapon in this day and age, wawa could also pass him all day at the net.

i2ooney
03-10-2006, 06:18 PM
i missed a few of the earlier matches but have a bet on:

M Shaughnessy V M Domachowska M Domachowska to Win @ 1.53 Open
S Stosur V D Safina D Safina to Win @ 1.40 Open
M Ani V N Dechy M Ani to Win @ 3.40 Open
A Murray V V Mazarakis A Murray to Win @ 1.14 Open

i2ooney
03-10-2006, 06:22 PM
lol. my main bet is on vik to beat hernych!

DeccyB123
03-10-2006, 06:26 PM
Since posting : 0-0

R.Soderling over J.Melzer (400$ to win 596$)
Which book had Soderling as the underdog? :scratch:

jackieglover
03-10-2006, 06:30 PM
Which book had Soderling as the underdog? :scratch:

He probably meant $400 to win $196.

bad gambler
03-10-2006, 07:16 PM
1st post in this forum. So a 0-0 record.

First bet: Goldstein to beat Martin

Goldstein is in good form and had a great run at Las Vegas beating Ginepri, Spadea and Malisse and took a set off Hewitt in the semis. He is good on hard court. On the other hand, Alberto Marting is mainly a clay court player and has done well on that surface this year. But he has played only thee matches on hard court this year and won one. Not a good record on hard courts in total. Goldstein to win :) !



i missed a few of the earlier matches but have a bet on:

M Shaughnessy V M Domachowska M Domachowska to Win @ 1.53 Open
S Stosur V D Safina D Safina to Win @ 1.40 Open
M Ani V N Dechy M Ani to Win @ 3.40 Open
A Murray V V Mazarakis A Murray to Win @ 1.14 Open




Welcome and I hope to see you guys posting here for the rest of the season :wavey:

bad gambler
03-10-2006, 07:20 PM
Exactly, noone has the right to criticize if they have no view on the criticized person record. I don't care if jez loses 8 bets today or twistedserve wins 15 oh his bets tomorrow. When you show me your record for - let's say - last full year, I will be able to praise or criticize


Nobody has the right to criticise full stop, posted records or not.

Unfortunately a lot of people don't see that betting is a case if each to their own in terms of stretegy, there is no hard and fast rule of how to bet. Whatever works for the particular individual.

Lebowski
03-10-2006, 08:06 PM
I'm a little concerned about the Vik bandwagon... :scared: I hope not too many people are on him :lol:


HELL!!!!!!!!

Down 5-1 1st set.

6-1

And gets broken first game of 2nd set. AWFUL!!!

bad gambler
03-10-2006, 08:06 PM
Kohlschreiber to beat Serra - $2.00

good luck


win

TwistyServe
03-10-2006, 09:20 PM
Maybe my final bet for Friday:

A high juice chalk parlay.. I haven't waged on any parlays over 3.0 this year but I think this one is less risk then the juice implies. Probably won't play another parlay with this high odds in a while:

Tursunov x Schuettler x Domachowska @3.05


I cant believe I'm relying on Schuettler to make it a good day lol.. Domach and Tursunov did their parts.

Vik screwed most of us today hehe.

Freeze17171
03-10-2006, 09:41 PM
Vik and Serra :(

My hopes rest on Stanislav for the day to not be a total loss.

TwistyServe
03-10-2006, 10:13 PM
Looks like most matches will continue tomorrow or sunday.. rain expected throughout and all hours:

http://www.weather.com/weather/wxdetail/USCA0511?from=36hr_bottomnav_undeclared

Lukic101
03-10-2006, 10:48 PM
since posting : 1-0 (+196$)

S.Wawrinka over G.Rusedski (200$ to win 374$)

elroyf
03-10-2006, 11:31 PM
Yay, won my first bet on here (Goldstein won!). By the way, I only go for picks over 1.5 that I think I will win. So I don't bet for value, just WINNERS!

Record 1-0

Next: Mirnyi to beat Saulnier

In their two meetings on hard court, Mirnyi has won both, in straight sets. Mirnyi has not been great this year but Saulnier has been worse, winning only 1 ATP match. Mirnyi got to the 3rd round of AO and beat Monfils in an exhibition. Should beat Saulinier comfortablly!

its.like.that
03-10-2006, 11:33 PM
wow... a lot of :bs: being talked in here.

:lol:

olix
03-11-2006, 09:22 AM
- Raymond over Loit @1.85 cannot see any reasoning behind those odds, maybe Raymond is tired or something after that three-setter. Medium play.

won

i2ooney
03-11-2006, 11:51 AM
lost on Vik like a few others but won this

M Shaughnessy V M Domachowska M Domachowska to Win @ 1.53 Won
S Stosur V D Safina D Safina to Win @ 1.40 Won
M Ani V N Dechy M Ani to Win @ 3.40 Won
A Murray V V Mazarakis A Murray to Win @ 1.14 Won

yes!

sports freak
03-12-2006, 01:13 AM
Take Stan the Man to the bank (Adee Gee's boyfriend) He'll make Greg look stupid,Leaning on X-man over Magician,Pashanski over Shittler,Phillip K n J Bjorkaman!!!!

Back later to post one or 2!!!

Stan the Man delivers the Goods!!

TwistyServe
03-12-2006, 07:45 PM
Maybe my final bet for Friday:

A high juice chalk parlay.. I haven't waged on any parlays over 3.0 this year but I think this one is less risk then the juice implies. Probably won't play another parlay with this high odds in a while:

Tursunov x Schuettler x Domachowska @3.05



Juiced parlay wins.. makes up some loses on Calleri and Vik :).

Weekend review later after pending matches.

jackieglover
03-12-2006, 07:46 PM
Juiced parlay wins.. makes up some loses on Calleri and Vik :).

Weekend review later after pending matches.

Tight match with Boris, nice win :yeah: