Top-of-the-world Tuesday! [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Top-of-the-world Tuesday!

Horatio Caine
02-20-2006, 07:28 PM
Rotterdam

Immediate lean:

Santoro over Mathieu @ 1.66

Anders
02-20-2006, 07:39 PM
Posted these in the Monday thread but hey, it's Tuesday where I live ... :-)

Memphis

Vliegen +225 over Blake (1)
Soderling -110 o Mirnyi (1)
Zib +110 o Arthurs (1)
Phau +225 o Malisse (1)

Rotterdam:

Lisnard +110 o C Rochus (1)
Bracciali +216 o Andreev
Parlay: Djokovic/Ferrer +122 (1)

Brasil

Mello +128 o Marin (1)
Berlocq -105 o Vicente (1)

GL

Horatio Caine
02-20-2006, 07:41 PM
You're not looking at Santoro?

2/1 h2h with Mathieu. Winning record against Frenchies. Much better indoor record than Mathieu. Game-plan Mathieu detests playing.

Anders
02-20-2006, 08:09 PM
line looks about right to me, i like to play santoro as a dog but not often as a fave... PHM is a guy also who gives me headaches h'capping...
prob worth a separate thread i was thinking of doing - who are the players u like to back/make a profit with regularly; who do u fade and make cash from; which guys do u like as dogs but not chalk and which players cause u massive headaches either way...
GL

Horatio Caine
02-20-2006, 08:17 PM
Lot of questions there mate!

I don't go for any set system. I start off just by looking at the order of play for the day. Matches will appeal to me at first sight (if there are any) and I will then research them. I will fix each potential winner with a % of confidence and apply that to the odds on offer. If the result is over 100 I will consider it to be bettable and decide in relation to other potential matches whether to bet it.

Things I look for in a match:

Game-plan v Game-plan - whose stands more chance of winning?
Head-to-head
Recent form
Recent form on that particular surface (no earlier than Jan 2005)
Tournament record (where I have time) - some players do well consistently at certain venues.
Mental stability or lack of it.
Fitness, including match fitness.

I mostly back faves, but I'm going more for singles on odds of greater than 1.40 right now as results this year are continuing to surprise.

Don't go for dogs often, mostly through not wanting to lose money rather than thinking long-term! I'm a tight-fisted git! :lol:

Horatio Caine
02-20-2006, 08:18 PM
I know I haven't really answered your question - I'll get back to it later ;)

TwistyServe
02-20-2006, 09:31 PM
Leans on:

Andreev over Bracciali @1.446
Steph over Lammer @1.166
Santoro over PHM @1.6
O. Rochus over Melzer 1.481
Tursunov over Ginerpi @2.160
Blake over Vlegen 1.4

Probably going to play two singles and one double parlay based on the leans above. Not sure exact what though.

Actual plays to be posted later.

Horatio Caine
02-20-2006, 09:40 PM
Yep, Tursunov @ 2.25 (for me) looks too good to be true. What's the catch? :rolleyes:

TwistyServe
02-20-2006, 11:06 PM
Also liking Seppi over Djokovic @2.530

Both players having a pretty good start to 2006 but huge value with Seppi. Probably playing a small hand on Seppi.

Horatio Caine
02-20-2006, 11:10 PM
Also liking Seppi over Djokovic @2.530

Both players having a pretty good start to 2006 but huge value with Seppi. Probably playing a small hand on Seppi.

It's indoors man - can't see Seppi winning it.

Horatio Caine
02-20-2006, 11:35 PM
One well worth looking at:

Arthurs over Zib @ 1.66

Zib v lefthanders 2-8 last 10 matches and 9-26 overall
Zib v Bigservers 4-6 in last 10 matches and 10-17 overall

There are question-marks over Wayno's fitness, but he still put in a good performance last week and indoor hard suits him well. He hasn't lost in R1 of an indoor hard event since 2004. Zib has done little at ATP level indoors.

dbnumberone
02-20-2006, 11:36 PM
It's indoors man - can't see Seppi winning it.

I'd *love* to see that Seppi/Djoko match - Seppi's hot as can be, & Djoko just gave Lju everything he wanted a couple weeks ago - no play here, but should be very fun to follow...

for me,
bet to win a unit on Andreev...
mainly as Bracc really hasn't done anything to suggest this year he's due for a quality win - I'm stubborn & still think Igor will have a nice year - a win over Dent & taking Lju to a tb last week tells me he's an ok play here, & he also seems to be a fighter which makes me more comfortable backing him...
gl all!

dbnumberone
02-20-2006, 11:39 PM
One well worth looking at:

Arthurs over Zib @ 1.66

Zib v lefthanders 2-8 last 10 matches and 9-26 overall
Zib v Bigservers 4-6 in last 10 matches and 10-17 overall

There are question-marks over Wayno's fitness, but he still put in a good performance last week and indoor hard suits him well. He hasn't lost in R1 of an indoor hard event since 2004. Zib has done little at ATP level indoors.

I'm all over Arthurs - in PAW :)
Zib is that guy that I'm always on the wrong side of, so he's become a permanent no play for me - I like that pick though, hope he takes it down

Horatio Caine
02-20-2006, 11:58 PM
I'm all over Arthurs - in PAW :)
Zib is that guy that I'm always on the wrong side of, so he's become a permanent no play for me - I like that pick though, hope he takes it down

Yeah I'm weary myself but records speak volumes usually. Wayno's serve is normally good enough to get a maximum of 2 looks in per set, and he can bps with aces anyway :lol:

I'm going to be all over that I think

Bilbo
02-21-2006, 12:13 AM
fair play to santoro and serra

Corey Feldman
02-21-2006, 12:24 AM
i like Sco Jenkins @2.4 over Goldstein Memphis
o.rochus @1.50 over melzer rotterdam
tojo over Henman @1.70 rotterdam
Horna over A.Martin @2.37 Brasil Open

not sure about Santoro, he's never passed 2r in Rotterdam before and PHM is too unpredictable when against him..
'shock' of the day might be Vliegen @2.20 over Blake in Memphis.

and champions league 2morro night as well :)

Grinder
02-21-2006, 01:20 AM
$300 loss yesterday after GGL decided he didn't want to show up. :o

Calatrava x Spadea @ +110 - $280 to win $308
Alex Calatrava is playing youngster Antal Van Der Duim, who has trouble winning matches in futures qualifying...should be a routine 6-3 6-2 victory, as Calatrava had to defeat another youngster easily in qualiyfing - Karan Rastogi. Calatrava is a former top 50 player who can be decent on hardcourt, notably pushing Tursunov to three sets late last year. Spadea plays Bobby Reynolds, I saw his match last year against Bobby and he played like total crap and still beat him through sheer guts. I hope Vince will be motivated and pull through, would be nice to get back my losses from yesterday on this one.

Stepanek 2-0 x Ferrer 2-0 @ +170 - $200 to win $340
Stepanek faces Michael Lammer, and Stepanek is a solid indoors player, can't see Lammer taking a set against the talented volleyer who just came off a doubles title defense in Marseille. Ferrer is playing the big hitting Minar, Minar is very hit or miss, but Ferrer's scrappy, counterpunching game should be too much for Ivo.

Good luck guys.

Horatio Caine
02-21-2006, 02:11 AM
Tursunov @ 2.15
Arthurs @ 1.66

Those are likely to be my only plays for today. Will finalise within next 12 hours or so.

its.like.that
02-21-2006, 04:00 AM
One well worth looking at:

Arthurs over Zib @ 1.66

Zib v lefthanders 2-8 last 10 matches and 9-26 overall
Zib v Bigservers 4-6 in last 10 matches and 10-17 overall

There are question-marks over Wayno's fitness, but he still put in a good performance last week and indoor hard suits him well. He hasn't lost in R1 of an indoor hard event since 2004. Zib has done little at ATP level indoors.

What's your definition of a big server?

Let's use an example - Arthurs and Baghdatis.

Wayne wins more free points off his serve, but Marcos has a higher average service speed. So which player is the bigger server? :scratch:

bad gambler
02-21-2006, 04:44 AM
for fucks sake, i go on holidays for 4 days and return to see 8 separate reports in this forum alone over that time.

the way this forum is simple:-

You state what your bet is, any anlaysis if you choose and that is that. constructive criticism is fine but no name calling, abuse to other members or any :retard: smiles if you get any bets wrong.


No more crap in here allowed, if you can't abide by these simple rules you get suspended/banned immediately from posting in this forum.

http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=47964

TwistyServe
02-21-2006, 06:55 AM
My official plays for Tuesday:

Santoro to beat PHM @1.699 (highest wager of the day)
- Santoro has been playing the best tennis of his career. Went deep in AO and has keep his form; contended with a very inform Clement too! Hoping Santoro can do the same this week: enjoy tennis and play well! He is 2-1 over PHM, and PHM is a total headcase. Inherently risk is that PHM is also playing pretty well but he's lost matches due to unintelligent tennis and maybe nerves!

Tursunov to beat Ginepri @2.160 (medium wager)
- I like this wager for the value. Ginepri's form has not been very good this year while Tursunov has played very well. Tursunov hits hard groundstrokes and I feel he can attack Ginepri's consistency game. Hope this doesn't go to TBs as so many of Dmitry's matches end up; if it does, hope the big Russian serve can lead an edge

Arthurs to beat Zib @1.735 (Medium wager)
- Arthurs played pretty well last week and is good indoors. His "big" serve will get him lots of free points. Zib on the other hand is very inconsistent at the ATP level and shouldn't trouble Arthurs. One concern is that rumor has it Arthurs injured his shoulder last week. Well hopefully if he isn't feeling well he'll retire and the wager will be void... But I don't believe rumors! (and I made the wager earlier anyway :lol: )

Andreev x Hingis x Vaidasova @1.91 (Medium wager)
- I usually don't do 3x parlays but I need to boost the risk of picking Andreev over Bracciali with something almost 100% safe (lol no such thing). Going to try it out, if this one loses I'll stick to singles and doubles! Anyway, last week, Andreev proved to me that he can play decently well indoors. Even though he should have lost to Dent he still pulled through and then troubled Ljubicic! Bracciali on the other hand hasn't done anything since his 2005 grass wins. Bracciali is definitely dangerous but has lost many CH matches to opponents subpar. I'm adding Hingis over Mirza and Vaidasova over Azareka to increase the reward for the risk of taking Andreev. Feel that Hingis and Vaidasova are a level above their opponents so little risk there! Mirza could be tricky but she's overrated and inconsistent imo. Azareka is a top girls junior but I dont think she's ready to beat Vaidasova.

Mistaflava
02-21-2006, 07:36 AM
2006 ATP Tennis Record: 25-7 (+$9195)

Ricardo Mello came in as my biggest dog winner of the year and it seems like I am almost perfect this season with underdog plays. Keep in mind that all my plays are -199 or lower, or 1.52 or higher for you Europeans. I don't believe in parlays and I don't believe in big dogs or big favs. This is the only way to make money in tennis and as you can see, it has worked like a charm for me this season. Good Luck!

----------------------------------------




Memphis (Round 1): Tuesday, February 21, 2006



Robin Soderling -135 over Max Mirnyi ($135 to win $100)

Small stakes to kick off the day. I am going small because something bothers me about betting against Mad Max...it always has and always will. I have always felt like he underachieves so much and burns you when you bet against him. Soderling comes into this match with the confidence having already beat Mirnyi twice in their careers and twice in the last year. Mirnyi is off to a so-so start to his season and I wouldn't be surprised if he put up a big fight in this one. However, Sodo is a good returner and I expect him to give the big Belarus-born Floridian some problems. After researching the matter a little bit, it has come to my attention that Robin Soderling is 6-0 in his last six matches on hardcourt (ATP or Challenger) versus guys who rely heavily on their big serve or who have a booming serve. He has not lost to a big server in this situation since January 5, 2004 when he lost to Lujubicic in Doha. In fact, since winning his first match against a big server on hardcourts, he has not lost since. Soderling is coming off some gutsy wins in San Jose, losing to eventual champion Andy Murray. He is also coming off an indoor hardcourt Challenger tournament title in Heilbronn and is picking up big time steam on this surface. Mirnyi has not played many tournaments recently on this surface and his record in North America is not as good as Soderling's. Mirnyi made the finals of this tournament last year, which is why I am keeping the stakes as low as possible while still trying to make a pretty penny on a match I like. On his road to the finals last year, Mirnyi beat several average players and I'm not impressed. This match has three sets written all over it and I am backing the man they call SODO!



Robby Ginepri -125 over Dmitry Tursunov ($625 to win $500)

Will Robby pull a Taylor Dent this week and come out flat in his first match back from relaxing on the beach somewhere...clearing his head? Who cares. The bottom line is, Ginepri needs a boost right and a boost he is going to get. I have not read reasoning for so many people hoping on the Tursunov train yet but I am sure you all have good reasons. Sure Robby has been playing like absolute shit but like I mentioned before, all bad things come to an end and this is the tournament for Robby to pick things up before he heads out and plays overseas. Ginepri has been off since his first round loss in Delray Beach and hopefully he has been taking it easy and having fun. In his last 10 matches on this surface, Ginepri is 7-3 and has beaten the likes of Ferrer, Davydenko, Grosjean and Fish. His three losses were to Andy Roddick (two tie break losses), Rafa in Madrid (pushed him hard) and Andy Murray (three sets). Now let's flip the page and see how Mr. Tursunov has done on the indoor hardcourt and it doesn't look promising. The Russian is only 4-6 in his last 10 matches on this surface, losing matches to Wayne Arthurs (oh my God...that's pathetic) and a bunch of other chumps. In fact, he has only two wins on this surface since 2004 and those were against Bjorkman and Calatrava. Yuk. Ginepri is a rocking 25-11 over the last year when playing in home Country while Tursunov has played very well at Memphis in the past. We are looking at a good matchup here and a good fitness test for Robby. Tursunov is only 11-11 in North American tournaments over the last 12 months and not really faced any heavy duty opponents. The books have given up on Robby but I have not. GO ROBBY!




Costa Do Sauipe (Round 1): Tuesday, February 21, 2006



Alberto Martin -153 over Luis Horna ($153 to win $100)

I remember hopping on the Beto train last week and being part of the big train 'derailment' (as BG would call it). I am not too sure how many people are actually on Martin for this match but my confidence is sky high knowing that Horna retired from his first round match in Buenos Aires with an injury and that he might have a tough time in this match. Martin is a finalist at this tournament from last year where he lost a somewhat strange match to Rafael Nadal in the finals. Both players have enjoyed some success on the clay courts over the last 12 months or so but the advantage is with Martin who has played against the stiffer opposition and still managed to win more game. I found another interesting stat on the man from Peru. Luis Horna is 1-7 in his last eight matches versus a seeded player in an ATP or Challenger tournament that is being played on clay courts. His lone win was against Albert Costa in Kitzbuhel back on July 19, 2004 and that was quite some time ago. Apart from that, Horna doesn't so much against better players on the clay courts and it will be interesting to see how fast he will go down today. Luis Horna is 3-7 in his TB's on clay courts over the last 12 months. This is not the most interesting match of the day but it could one that flies under the betting radar and my money is on Beto!



:eek:

Horatio Caine
02-21-2006, 07:50 AM
Interesting stuff there man...good luck! :yeah:

Horatio Caine
02-21-2006, 08:46 AM
My main play for the day:

Santoro over Mathieu @ 1.66

Analysis: http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/showthread.php?p=11641&posted=1#post11641

Good luck! :yeah:

skel1983
02-21-2006, 09:19 AM
Serra & Santoro for me!!

ClaycourtaZzZz.
02-21-2006, 09:19 AM
I like PHM

Horatio Caine
02-21-2006, 09:40 AM
I like PHM

:ras: ;)

Yeah it's risky mate, but the match-up is quite nice and there are some very interesting trends that go with this match in favour of Santoro...will be interesting to see what happens...

SadrieL
02-21-2006, 09:47 AM
Melzer over Rochus, 2.62

A true mug bet, Melzer has no chance! I don't care! Take my money, bookies!

olix
02-21-2006, 10:20 AM
Andreev did a Cilic again :devil:

Midnight Express
02-21-2006, 10:58 AM
I copy&bet Mistaflava trio! Ricardo yeasterday :yeah:!!!I must start betting this fella's picks!
Beware of Zib - this guy is first class choker. After the DC shit agains Germany he was poor a long time but still he "can" play great tennis if he feels no pressure to win the match....I dare say he'll win in two!

Nimrodg
02-21-2006, 11:06 AM
Juan Martin Del Potro all the way

ClaycourtaZzZz.
02-21-2006, 11:27 AM
Razvan Sabau over Patience @2.38:confused:


LOL!

Sabau should bring it home:rolleyes:

Pingpong
02-21-2006, 11:38 AM
Juan Martin Del Potro all the way

Completely agree, though if the odds were a bit better it would be more tempting

harvey
02-21-2006, 11:49 AM
i know its easy to say now, but my 10 euro is looking ok'ish on palmer. Other undergods with a hope must be daniel (ran massu close-ish for last two weeks and now at home), navarro-pastor (always like a decent player who's been in quals), saretta (took a set off ferrero last week, and now at home under lights in last match of day), benneteau (qualed), and mathieu

TwistyServe
02-21-2006, 12:29 PM
Add:

JMDP over Monaco @1.676 (higher play)

Liking how this kid did against gonzo and JCF! Seems like he's going to be a contender soon! Monaco on the other hand has not been very promising.

TwistyServe
02-21-2006, 12:37 PM
Andreev x Hingis x Vaidasova @1.91 (Medium wager)
- I usually don't do 3x parlays but I need to boost the risk of picking Andreev over Bracciali

Loses.. I knew there was a reason I wanted to add more punch to this. Andreev is too much risk :( Can't believe the scoreline. Oh well hope my others win!

dbnumberone
02-21-2006, 12:44 PM
Loses.. I knew there was a reason I wanted to add more punch to this. Andreev is too much risk :( Can't believe the scoreline. Oh well hope my others win!

Andreev, no kidding, that's no way to wake up in the morning - moving him to my no play list...wish I would've waited for this one...

bet to win a unit on Del Potro

DP's been racing through quallies this year while Monaco's been losing handily in straight sets...pretty good odds here for a play

dbnumberone
02-21-2006, 12:45 PM
Add:

JMDP over Monaco @1.676 (higher play)

Liking how this kid did against gonzo and JCF! Seems like he's going to be a contender soon! Monaco on the other hand has not been very promising.

lol, I didn't see your post before I posted my play - gl to us!

TwistyServe
02-21-2006, 01:57 PM
lol, I didn't see your post before I posted my play - gl to us!

Yep I really like that bet and when I saw it was 1.676 I jumped!

The only time JMDP played Monaco was in 2003 where he lost 5-7, 5-7 but he was only 15 years old! Monaco almost let a 15 yr old kid defeat him! Now JMDP is a much improved player (as is Monaco) but I'm feeling very confident with this matchup. Hopefully not too confident as to be careless :lol:

Experimentee
02-21-2006, 01:58 PM
Why is Soderling favourite over Mirnyi?

TwistyServe
02-21-2006, 01:59 PM
Why is Soderling favourite over Mirnyi?

He's an indoor king as I've heard. Mirnyi isn't too bad indoors either.. maybe a king vs a bishop or rook?

Horatio Caine
02-21-2006, 02:11 PM
Why is Soderling favourite over Mirnyi?

Soderling has the return game to take Max down and Max gets his best results on carpet ;)

Soderling is an indoor hard monster...but I'm leaving this as Mirnyi went SF in Memphis last year.

Experimentee
02-21-2006, 02:17 PM
Tursunov x Del Potro at $3.20
Laine x Harkleroad at $1.88
Ferrer x Ancic x Johansson at $3.63

Going small on all of them as they are parlays and I've got no confidence right now :lol:

Experimentee
02-21-2006, 02:18 PM
Yeah I know that Soderling is good indoors, but then so is Mirnyi. I think they are overrating Soderling a bit because of his one good week last week. I wouldnt bet on this match though.

Horatio Caine
02-21-2006, 02:25 PM
Yeah I know that Soderling is good indoors, but then so is Mirnyi. I think they are overrating Soderling a bit because of his one good week last week. I wouldnt bet on this match though.

Yeah you're right...but here you have to look at the match-up and Soderling quite likes a target as is evidenced by some of his results. I'd say Mirnyi is the less stable one on indoor hard by a few levels to be honest. Put them on carpet and I'd only favour Soderling by 1-2%.

Yoel and co.
02-21-2006, 02:26 PM
Melzer over Rochus, 2.62

A true mug bet, Melzer has no chance! I don't care! Take my money, bookies!

Anyone who decides to bet on or against Melzer is very brave. He is one of the most unpredicitable players I know (and currently 8-8 vs Ollie in the thrid set TB)

SadrieL
02-21-2006, 02:31 PM
Melzer over Rochus, 2.62

A true mug bet, Melzer has no chance! I don't care! Take my money, bookies!

One of the most mentally weak players I've seen. I won't even bet on this guy for fun anymore. It's like he's allergic to set points or something, the more of them he sees the sicker he gets.

SadrieL
02-21-2006, 02:32 PM
Anyone who decides to bet on or against Melzer is very brave. He is one of the most unpredicitable players I know (and currently 8-8 vs Ollie in the thrid set TB)

Very brave and very stupid, I would rather he lost 2-0 than to go through that rollercoaster.

TwistyServe
02-21-2006, 02:33 PM
Very brave and very stupid, I would rather he lost 2-0 than to go through that rollercoaster.

I think that bet wasn't bad. The match ended up being 50/50 and you got 2.62 for it. Too bad it turne dthe other way around.

Horatio Caine
02-21-2006, 02:34 PM
Very brave and very stupid, I would rather he lost 2-0 than to go through that rollercoaster.

Very good bet in fact...he was well worth his value and you were extremely unlucky :(

Yoel and co.
02-21-2006, 02:34 PM
One of the most mentally weak players I've seen. I won't even bet on this guy for fun anymore. It's like he's allergic to set points or something, the more of them he sees the sicker he gets.

Couldn't have put this better. IMO he is a bigger chocker than PHM...thank G-d my money was on Ollie (but the grief it gave me...)

SadrieL
02-21-2006, 02:37 PM
Very good bet in fact...he was well worth his value and you were extremely unlucky :(

Yeah but value only matters if it wins.

The good news is that I didn't have as big a bet on him as I thought. I wish I did that more often.

Horatio Caine
02-21-2006, 02:40 PM
thank G-d my money was on Ollie (but the grief it gave me...)

:tape: I had sided with Ollie but thought the odds were too short...thank goodness! :haha: :haha: But yeah, a few people with white hair today, including those involved the Para-Parmar match. :tape:

SadrieL
02-21-2006, 02:41 PM
Wang + Soderling + Arthurs = mug bet number 2! GO GO BUFFALO!

Horatio Caine
02-21-2006, 02:42 PM
Yeah but value only matters if it wins.

The good news is that I didn't have as big a bet on him as I thought. I wish I did that more often.

The way I see it is that there are good and bad losses...yours was a good one. Andreev was a bad loss for instance. There is a difference...but yeah the disappointment is still the same :(

OzinLondon
02-21-2006, 02:43 PM
My one bet of the day:

Tursunov to beat Ginepri @ 2.2

It must require a huge leap of faith to see Ginepris results from this year and think he should be favourite.

Tursunov is an improving, quality player. He has had encouraging indoor results of late so thats not a worry.

TwistyServe
02-21-2006, 02:43 PM
Wang + Soderling + Arthurs = mug bet number 2! GO GO BUFFALO!

Thats a dangerous parlay Sadriel! Good luck.

TwistyServe
02-21-2006, 02:44 PM
My official plays for Tuesday:

Santoro to beat PHM @1.699 (highest wager of the day)


Fabrice wins 6-3, 6-3!

Very happy with this result especialyl since it was my highest wager for the day! Thank you fab!

1-1 for the day but green because of proper staking.

TwistyServe
02-21-2006, 02:45 PM
My main play for the day:

Santoro over Mathieu @ 1.66

Good luck! :yeah:

:yeah: Great start to the week!

Horatio Caine
02-21-2006, 02:45 PM
My one bet of the day:

Tursunov to beat Ginepri @ 2.2

It must require a huge leap of faith to see Ginepris results from this year and think he should be favourite.

Tursunov is an improving, quality player. He has had encouraging indoor results of late so thats not a worry.

I totally agree pal and I'm onto it in the next 30 minutes...value.

EDIT: Dima's odds have dropped from 2.15 to 2.05 to 1.95...interesting...maybe he won't be value anymore. I'll have to assess.

Horatio Caine
02-21-2006, 02:48 PM
:yeah: Great start to the week!

Well played and thank you Fabrice! :banana: :yeah:

Thank you kind sir ;)

Remind me: how much would you have lost on your "new system" adopted, and subsequently discarded, on Sunday? ;) :nerner:

dbnumberone
02-21-2006, 02:49 PM
The way I see it is that there are good and bad losses...yours was a good one. Andreev was a bad loss for instance. There is a difference...but yeah the disappointment is still the same :(

lol, please - any loss is a bad loss....I'd say there are bad & worse (Andreev) losses, but good loss? C'mon
"Show me a good loser & I'll show you a loser" - Vince Lombardi

TwistyServe
02-21-2006, 02:49 PM
Well played and thank you Fabrice! :banana: :yeah:

Thank you kind sir ;)

Remind me: how much would you have lost on your "new system" adopted, and subsequently discarded, on Sunday? ;) :nerner:

Rephase? I dont understand the question?

Horatio Caine
02-21-2006, 02:51 PM
lol, please - any loss is a bad loss....I'd say there are bad & worse (Andreev) losses, but good loss? C'mon
"Show me a good loser & I'll show you a loser" - Vince Lombardi

Well maybe I think too much in the mind of a player :lol:

But when I had that awful run last week, I didn't regret 1 of my bets...they all seemed right. I was just really unlucky with 70% of them - that to me was a "good loss" because it wasn't my judgment that was wrong per se.

Horatio Caine
02-21-2006, 02:51 PM
Rephase? I dont understand the question?

Playful dig - your new system was "Wait for Jez to post his picks then go against them..." :p

Horatio Caine
02-21-2006, 02:53 PM
I can't believe Andreev though...he is one to lay off altogether this year I think or fade because he win titles and lose like this day in day out.

No doubt about it, 2006 has been very tough to bet so far. So many strange results :ee:

TwistyServe
02-21-2006, 02:53 PM
Playful dig - your new system was "Wait for Jez to post his picks then go against them..." :p

That was a joke :p

As someone here mentioned a few days ago, when both of us agree, the outcome usualyl results in :bigclap: .. Example: santoro today!

Hopefully that trend stays :)

Horatio Caine
02-21-2006, 02:54 PM
That was a joke :p

As someone here mentioned a few days ago, when both of us agree, the outcome usualyl results in :bigclap: .. Example: santoro today!

Hopefully that trend stays :)

I'll :drink: to that...and I earned enough money to afford that ;)

dbnumberone
02-21-2006, 03:00 PM
Well maybe I think too much in the mind of a player :lol:

But when I had that awful run last week, I didn't regret 1 of my bets...they all seemed right. I was just really unlucky with 70% of them - that to me was a "good loss" because it wasn't my judgment that was wrong per se.

That, or my glass is half empty & yours is half full :)

dbnumberone
02-21-2006, 03:01 PM
Congrats on Fabrice fellas

TwistyServe
02-21-2006, 03:14 PM
Anyone know why Henman is a 2.2 dog to Tojo? I'm not playing this hand but seems the odds should be a lot closer.

Horatio Caine
02-21-2006, 03:15 PM
That, or my glass is half empty & yours is half full :)

:haha: :yeah:

Horatio Caine
02-21-2006, 03:17 PM
Anyone know why Henman is a 2.2 dog to Tojo? I'm not playing this hand but seems the odds should be a lot closer.

Matches have always been close between them even though Tim leads 4/2? Tojo took last match quite comfortably. Speculation on Henman's back injury. Henman not in best form whilst Tojo isn't bad. Henman's game is a good match for Tojo and he will make life difficult for him. Both are accomplished indoors...but as of 2006, whose serve would you back to hold up the longest? :lol: Not Henman's :rolleyes:

i2ooney
02-21-2006, 03:34 PM
Hi this is my 1st post. I'm 25 and I've been betting on tennis for a few years now. I almost won a fortune last year at Wimbledon, I got 27/28 selections right but Karlovic lost to Bracciali on grass and I didn't quite make it. That was a sickening time in my life!

I'm a bad gambler from London but I also won on Santoro today. I stayed away from Rochus and Melzer because I thought it would go to three and it did, but I regret not backing Rochus anyway.

The biggest miss was Petrova losing to Kirilenko today but I was watching the match and it was one that Petrova could have come back from if she had the right attitude.

I think the only other match worth punting on today is Arthurs to beat Zib. Arthurs beat Tursunov last week if my memory serves me correctly and he should beat Zib in 2. Have a sneaky suspicion that Ferrero may lose but will stay away from it because it just doesn't feel right, the same that Vliegen to beat Blake doesn't feel right.

Can't wait to join in the gambling banter tomorrow! Nice to meet you all.

TwistyServe
02-21-2006, 03:36 PM
Hi this is my 1st post. I'm 25 and I've been betting on tennis for a few years now. I almost won a fortune last year at Wimbledon, I got 27/28 selections right but Karlovic lost to Bracciali on grass and I didn't quite make it. That was a sickening time in my life!

I'm a bad gambler from London but I also won on Santoro today. I stayed away from Rochus and Melzer because I thought it would go to three and it did, but I regret not backing Rochus anyway.

The biggest miss was Petrova losing to Kirilenko today but I was watching the match and it was one that Petrova could have come back from if she had the right attitude.

I think the only other match worth punting on today is Arthurs to beat Zib. Arthurs beat Tursunov last week if my memory serves me correctly and he should beat Zib in 2. Have a sneaky suspicion that Ferrero may lose but will stay away from it because it just doesn't feel right, the same that Vliegen to beat Blake doesn't feel right.

Can't wait to join in the gambling banter tomorrow! Nice to meet you all.

27 of 28 is amazing man. Hope you bring us those winners and welcome!

Mario66
02-21-2006, 03:36 PM
Hi this is my 1st post. I'm 25 and I've been betting on tennis for a few years now. I almost won a fortune last year at Wimbledon, I got 27/28 selections right but Karlovic lost to Bracciali on grass and I didn't quite make it. That was a sickening time in my life!

I'm a bad gambler from London but I also won on Santoro today. I stayed away from Rochus and Melzer because I thought it would go to three and it did, but I regret not backing Rochus anyway.

The biggest miss was Petrova losing to Kirilenko today but I was watching the match and it was one that Petrova could have come back from if she had the right attitude.

I think the only other match worth punting on today is Arthurs to beat Zib. Arthurs beat Tursunov last week if my memory serves me correctly and he should beat Zib in 2. Have a sneaky suspicion that Ferrero may lose but will stay away from it because it just doesn't feel right, the same that Vliegen to beat Blake doesn't feel right.

Can't wait to join in the gambling banter tomorrow! Nice to meet you all.


Nice to have new people here! Welcome..:wavey:

Horatio Caine
02-21-2006, 03:43 PM
Hi this is my 1st post. I'm 25 and I've been betting on tennis for a few years now. I almost won a fortune last year at Wimbledon, I got 27/28 selections right but Karlovic lost to Bracciali on grass and I didn't quite make it. That was a sickening time in my life!

I'm a bad gambler from London but I also won on Santoro today. I stayed away from Rochus and Melzer because I thought it would go to three and it did, but I regret not backing Rochus anyway.

The biggest miss was Petrova losing to Kirilenko today but I was watching the match and it was one that Petrova could have come back from if she had the right attitude.

I think the only other match worth punting on today is Arthurs to beat Zib. Arthurs beat Tursunov last week if my memory serves me correctly and he should beat Zib in 2. Have a sneaky suspicion that Ferrero may lose but will stay away from it because it just doesn't feel right, the same that Vliegen to beat Blake doesn't feel right.

Can't wait to join in the gambling banter tomorrow! Nice to meet you all.

Welcome pal!!

Word of warning! Stay off Arthurs - he has a shoulder injury and his serve apparently lost power vs Hewitt 2nd set last week. He should still win anyway! :tape: But I'm not touching it ;)

i2ooney
02-21-2006, 04:02 PM
Thanks guys! I just bet on Serra to beat Dlouhy at 1.5 odds! Had to move from Will Hill to Ladbrokes to find it, I think it's a peach of a bet!

Anders
02-21-2006, 04:30 PM
happy to get bracciali home...

and soderling and benneteau... :cool:

WTD: 6-3 +4.58 units

Adding....

Brasil

Gimeno-Traver +225 o Chela (1)
Navarro-Pastor +200 o Starace (1)

Parlay: Martin/Patience +140 (1)

Mistaflava
02-21-2006, 05:55 PM
2006 ATP Tennis Record: 25-7 (+$9195)

Ricardo Mello came in as my biggest dog winner of the year and it seems like I am almost perfect this season with underdog plays. Keep in mind that all my plays are -199 or lower, or 1.52 or higher for you Europeans. I don't believe in parlays and I don't believe in big dogs or big favs. This is the only way to make money in tennis and as you can see, it has worked like a charm for me this season. Good Luck!

----------------------------------------




Memphis (Round 1): Tuesday, February 21, 2006



Robin Soderling -135 over Max Mirnyi ($135 to win $100)

Small stakes to kick off the day. I am going small because something bothers me about betting against Mad Max...it always has and always will. I have always felt like he underachieves so much and burns you when you bet against him. Soderling comes into this match with the confidence having already beat Mirnyi twice in their careers and twice in the last year. Mirnyi is off to a so-so start to his season and I wouldn't be surprised if he put up a big fight in this one. However, Sodo is a good returner and I expect him to give the big Belarus-born Floridian some problems. After researching the matter a little bit, it has come to my attention that Robin Soderling is 6-0 in his last six matches on hardcourt (ATP or Challenger) versus guys who rely heavily on their big serve or who have a booming serve. He has not lost to a big server in this situation since January 5, 2004 when he lost to Lujubicic in Doha. In fact, since winning his first match against a big server on hardcourts, he has not lost since. Soderling is coming off some gutsy wins in San Jose, losing to eventual champion Andy Murray. He is also coming off an indoor hardcourt Challenger tournament title in Heilbronn and is picking up big time steam on this surface. Mirnyi has not played many tournaments recently on this surface and his record in North America is not as good as Soderling's. Mirnyi made the finals of this tournament last year, which is why I am keeping the stakes as low as possible while still trying to make a pretty penny on a match I like. On his road to the finals last year, Mirnyi beat several average players and I'm not impressed. This match has three sets written all over it and I am backing the man they call SODO!



Soderling wins 6-0 6-1




:worship: :worship: :worship: :worship: :worship:



Great way to start the day. Now let's reel in the next two bets for a cash money mo pride kinda day! WHOOOOO!

Anders
02-21-2006, 06:14 PM
Adding...

Memphis:

Pless +200 o Karlovic (1)

Horatio Caine
02-21-2006, 06:21 PM
Final bet for today:

Tursunov over Ginepri @ 1.95

Analysis: http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/showthread.php?p=11667#post11667

Good luck! :yeah:

TwistyServe
02-21-2006, 06:53 PM
The only time JMDP played Monaco was in 2003 where he lost 5-7, 5-7 but he was only 15 years old!

Gag... del potro loses 5-7, 5-7.. again.. Now really need Tursunov and Arthurs to come off :eek:

dbnumberone
02-21-2006, 07:17 PM
Lost: my mojo
please return if found

TwistyServe
02-21-2006, 07:34 PM
Gag... del potro loses 5-7, 5-7.. again.. Now really need Tursunov and Arthurs to come off :eek:

Arthurs wins serving big!

Okay Tursunov is decider if I'm Green today or Red today :rolleyes:

olix
02-21-2006, 07:48 PM
Matches that I did well to stay away from:

Petrova vs Krilenko - I know Kirilenko is able to step up her game sometimes, and I felt that Petrova is somewhat vulnerable at the moment, I stayed away from her in the Golovin match also.

Vaidisova vs Azarenka - Azarenka will be a gold mine in the future,young talent that's coming up strong, she actually did beat Vaidisova in junior Wimbledon, so I knew she had a chance but didn't have the guts to back her, as it turns out she won in a 3s battle.

Andreev vs Bracciali - Andreev tanked vs Cilic not a long time ago, so definately no bet, and I don't know where got this 'fear' of betting against italians, I somehow got the idea that they are fighters - Seppi, Sanguinetti, and Bracialli.

ALG and Peschke - simply unreliable ATM

Oh and let's not forget Zvonareva, she can get rammed by nearly anyone who can hold a tennis racquet.

Horatio Caine
02-21-2006, 07:52 PM
Guys - how did Arrthurs look on the court? Did he show any signs of injury?

Mistaflava
02-21-2006, 08:18 PM
...

Mistaflava
02-21-2006, 08:25 PM
2006 ATP Tennis Record: 25-7 (+$9195)

Ricardo Mello came in as my biggest dog winner of the year and it seems like I am almost perfect this season with underdog plays. Keep in mind that all my plays are -199 or lower, or 1.52 or higher for you Europeans. I don't believe in parlays and I don't believe in big dogs or big favs. This is the only way to make money in tennis and as you can see, it has worked like a charm for me this season. Good Luck!

----------------------------------------




Memphis (Round 1): Tuesday, February 21, 2006



Robin Soderling -135 over Max Mirnyi ($135 to win $100)

Small stakes to kick off the day. I am going small because something bothers me about betting against Mad Max...it always has and always will. I have always felt like he underachieves so much and burns you when you bet against him. Soderling comes into this match with the confidence having already beat Mirnyi twice in their careers and twice in the last year. Mirnyi is off to a so-so start to his season and I wouldn't be surprised if he put up a big fight in this one. However, Sodo is a good returner and I expect him to give the big Belarus-born Floridian some problems. After researching the matter a little bit, it has come to my attention that Robin Soderling is 6-0 in his last six matches on hardcourt (ATP or Challenger) versus guys who rely heavily on their big serve or who have a booming serve. He has not lost to a big server in this situation since January 5, 2004 when he lost to Lujubicic in Doha. In fact, since winning his first match against a big server on hardcourts, he has not lost since. Soderling is coming off some gutsy wins in San Jose, losing to eventual champion Andy Murray. He is also coming off an indoor hardcourt Challenger tournament title in Heilbronn and is picking up big time steam on this surface. Mirnyi has not played many tournaments recently on this surface and his record in North America is not as good as Soderling's. Mirnyi made the finals of this tournament last year, which is why I am keeping the stakes as low as possible while still trying to make a pretty penny on a match I like. On his road to the finals last year, Mirnyi beat several average players and I'm not impressed. This match has three sets written all over it and I am backing the man they call SODO!




Costa Do Sauipe (Round 1): Tuesday, February 21, 2006



Alberto Martin -153 over Luis Horna ($153 to win $100)

I remember hopping on the Beto train last week and being part of the big train 'derailment' (as BG would call it). I am not too sure how many people are actually on Martin for this match but my confidence is sky high knowing that Horna retired from his first round match in Buenos Aires with an injury and that he might have a tough time in this match. Martin is a finalist at this tournament from last year where he lost a somewhat strange match to Rafael Nadal in the finals. Both players have enjoyed some success on the clay courts over the last 12 months or so but the advantage is with Martin who has played against the stiffer opposition and still managed to win more game. I found another interesting stat on the man from Peru. Luis Horna is 1-7 in his last eight matches versus a seeded player in an ATP or Challenger tournament that is being played on clay courts. His lone win was against Albert Costa in Kitzbuhel back on July 19, 2004 and that was quite some time ago. Apart from that, Horna doesn't so much against better players on the clay courts and it will be interesting to see how fast he will go down today. Luis Horna is 3-7 in his TB's on clay courts over the last 12 months. This is not the most interesting match of the day but it could one that flies under the betting radar and my money is on Beto!



:eek:



Martin wins 6-4 7-5




:worship: :worship: :worship: :worship: :worship:



2-0 on the day and ready for the big one....GO ROBBY!

Anders
02-21-2006, 08:26 PM
attaboy vliegen...and martin...

sun shining v brightly in NZ today :-)

olix
02-21-2006, 08:30 PM
Way to go Anders, great call on Bracciali earlier today. ;)

i2ooney
02-21-2006, 08:42 PM
Today I got Serra, Arthurs and Santoro (and Arsenal in the CL for all you footie fans!)

Missed out on Soderling and Vliegen, Kirilenko and Sfar!

I'm wondering if anyone has any late thoughts on starace v navarro pastor and karlovic v pless? Starace has a 1-0 h2h record but should I back him at odds of only 1.36?

Anders
02-21-2006, 09:07 PM
cheers olix, huge day today with ....

Vliegen +225 over Blake (1) WIN
Soderling -110 o Mirnyi (1) WIN
Zib +110 o Arthurs (1) LOSS
Parlay: Djokovic/Ferrer +122 (1) WIN
Benneteau +114 o Wang (1) WIN
Parlay: Martin/Patience +140 (1) WIN

and I'm an Arsenal fan who has just watched out performance in ages to get a win in Madrid, so I'm on cloud 9 this am... best to stay away from the accounts I think once I've broken out the bourbon :-)

i2ooney
02-21-2006, 10:06 PM
congratulations on the win, great result, the success in Europe was overdue for Arsenal. I made about £100 on them (but support Everton!). I was looking at a sticker book when I was 7 and chose the Everton and Arsenal club badges as my favourites. But I picked Everton because my favourite colour was blue (good choice huh). Always had a soft spot for Arsenal ever since.

Congrats on your tennis success too, I'll be looking for your tips before tomorrow's action gets underway!

Can I just say a big thanks to all the contributors like Jez who through their discussion and predictions help people to come to their own conclusions. Wouldn't have backed Santoro or Arthurs today without it.

TwistyServe
02-21-2006, 10:07 PM
Tursunov to beat Ginepri @2.160 (medium wager)


Wew.. feel like I dodged a big bullet today.. That match was intense and close

Turs wins 7-5, 7-6! and keeps me green today :)

TwistyServe
02-21-2006, 10:09 PM
Final bet for today:

Tursunov over Ginepri @ 1.95

Good luck! :yeah:

Once again mate, when you and I agree, it's a winner ! :yeah:

i2ooney
02-21-2006, 10:13 PM
congrats twist serve. it seems like it's been a good day for most of us. I missed out on Tursunov and am now rueing it!

can't wait for tomorrow's predictions to start up now, some tough matches.

i2ooney
02-21-2006, 10:15 PM
seeing as you guys are so hot today does any one of you want to tell me what you think about Saretta's chances against Ferrero?

There's about 15 minutes left to bet on it, I'll probably stay away from it in the end.

Horatio Caine
02-21-2006, 10:17 PM
seeing as you guys are so hot today does any one of you want to tell me what you think about Saretta's chances against Ferrero?

There's about 15 minutes left to bet on it, I'll probably stay away from it in the end.

I'll be back to reply to a few other posts in a moment...

But with this one, I'd seriously leave it mate. They played a week ago? I think any repeat match within a short space of time is open to a surprise result. I'd wait until tomorrow - plenty of matches left in the tournaments ;)

Horatio Caine
02-21-2006, 10:22 PM
Final bet for today:

Tursunov over Ginepri @ 1.95

Analysis: http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/showthread.php?p=11667#post11667

Good luck! :yeah:

Well done and thank you Dmitry! :yeah: :banana: :woohoo:

Horatio Caine
02-21-2006, 10:24 PM
Once again mate, when you and I agree, it's a winner ! :yeah:

Does seem this way! Congrats pal - another glorious day... :banana: :drink:

i2ooney
02-21-2006, 10:24 PM
cheers for the reply jez.

I think I will stay away from it. Thanks for talking me out of it. You are right and I am prone to losing money straight after I've won some. This site is so cool!

i2ooney
02-21-2006, 10:29 PM
I am eagerly awaiting Well-endowed Wednesday or something to start up, when are you going to start a thread Jez?! I'm so excited. lol

Horatio Caine
02-21-2006, 10:30 PM
congratulations on the win, great result, the success in Europe was overdue for Arsenal. I made about £100 on them (but support Everton!). I was looking at a sticker book when I was 7 and chose the Everton and Arsenal club badges as my favourites. But I picked Everton because my favourite colour was blue (good choice huh). Always had a soft spot for Arsenal ever since.

Congrats mate - happy to hear it!


Congrats on your tennis success too, I'll be looking for your tips before tomorrow's action gets underway!

Can I just say a big thanks to all the contributors like Jez who through their discussion and predictions help people to come to their own conclusions. Wouldn't have backed Santoro or Arthurs today without it.

That's why MTF is well-known around other forums...there are many good gamblers here who are knowledgable about the sport. My suggestion is that you get involved in chat in the other parts of the forum - so much useful information gets circulated there.

We are all equally good contributors - good to hear that you had a great day, and here's to another! :drink:

Horatio Caine
02-21-2006, 10:32 PM
I am eagerly awaiting Well-endowed Wednesday or something to start up, when are you going to start a thread Jez?! I'm so excited. lol

Jim has already started it mate - 2+ winners Wednesday I think it is called.

I haven't seen anything I fancy right now but if I do it will be posted in there...look out in particular for tips from its.like.that., BadGambler, Grinder, Anders, TwistServe, MistaFlava...

i2ooney
02-21-2006, 10:40 PM
thanks again. I will try to contribute to that thread in order to gain feedback and to help others put me right if necessary. It will really help me organise my thoughts.

I have already noticed the quality of the posts by those contributors you mention!

Seeing as I'm new can I just say thanks to those guys again! And if anyone ever wants to give me advice or put me right my advice is please do! Replies are most welcome to posts I think! I won't be offended by others rubbishing my opinions!

I think it's funny when people get into arguments about players in other parts of the forum (though I haven't visited that much yet). I don't have any allegiance to any players as such but my faves are Safin for his cool arrogance and in the past few years Rochus because at times he played like Agassi and was a superb value bet at times (though those days have become less frequent lately)

So I'm pretty much a chilled out gambler who loves to bet on tennis. And I'm really looking forward to tomorrow's banter!

Horatio Caine
02-21-2006, 10:42 PM
Jez is gay.

:)

I only have eyes for you mate ;) :inlove:

Horatio Caine
02-21-2006, 10:44 PM
And I'm really looking forward to tomorrow's banter!

You get the best and the worst here :tape:

TwistyServe
02-21-2006, 10:44 PM
Really pleased with the results today.. Adding pocket change to Saretta and Skoville just for the hell of it.. seeing as there are tons of upsets today too!.. Yes this is only a few bucks :lol: They probably won win but should be enoyable hoping they win.

Edit: errr just found out sko doesnt even play today.

Experimentee
02-22-2006, 12:50 AM
I am convinced that whenever I place a bet it jinxes the player :help:
Everyone losing matches they should win :o
Well at least I'm having fun and not out to make money.

TwistyServe
02-22-2006, 02:52 AM
Really pleased with the results today.. Adding pocket change to Saretta and Skoville just for the hell of it.. seeing as there are tons of upsets today too!.. Yes this is only a few bucks :lol: They probably won win but should be enoyable hoping they win.

Edit: errr just found out sko doesnt even play today.

My highest ever dog! Wins!

But this one was a tiny play, didn't have the balls to but real money on it!

Saretta wins 6-4, 6-3 @4.05!

TwistyServe
02-22-2006, 02:59 AM
Review of my day:

Santoro to beat PHM @1.699
Tursunov to beat Ginepri @2.160
Arthurs to beat Zib @1.735
Andreev x Hingis x Vaidasova @1.91
Del Potro to beat Monaco
Saretta to beat Ferrero @4.05

Great start to the week, hope tomorrow delivers the same.

:yeah: