Wild Wild West Wednesday [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Wild Wild West Wednesday

bad gambler
02-15-2006, 12:21 AM
I have money tied up from yesterday in:

Santoro to beat Johansson - $2.27
Baghdatis to beat Ancic - $1.84


Adding:

Goldstein to beat Hewitt - $4.10 (small play)


be lucky

Horatio Caine
02-15-2006, 12:27 AM
My confidence has been somewhat Dented as of late...lost 6 of last 7 bets with Acasuso impending as of the moment :scared:

Was going along the lines of small plays on:

Verdasco over Melzer @ 1.66
Santoro @ 2.25

However, I shall wait until morning and see if Acasuso wins. If he hasn't, the last thing I want to do is back another brainless choker. :rolleyes:

TwistyServe
02-15-2006, 04:13 AM
Plays on the following:

Verdasco to beat Melzer @1.704
Baggy to beat Ancic @1.870
Santoro to beat Tojo @2.170

Banking on at least two of these three to win :)

TwistyServe
02-15-2006, 04:14 AM
My confidence has been somewhat Dented as of late...lost 6 of last 7 bets with Acasuso impending as of the moment :scared:
:

Cheers mate! Acasuso wins easily :hearts:

jen_nz
02-15-2006, 04:47 AM
ljubo over srichapan looks good to me.

Mistaflava
02-15-2006, 07:33 AM
2006 ATP Tennis Record: 20-5 (+$4650)

First loss in a very long time yesterday and it stung because Dent had that match and blew it. It's time to hop back on the winning horse and take these two dog puppies to the bank for a little bit of loving. Some fun matches but since the lines are not all out, I will be coming back in with more matches later. Good Luck to all!

-------------------------------------




Marseille (Round 1): Wednesday, February 15, 2006



Jurgen Melzer +133 over Fernando Verdasco ($100 to win $133)

You might think I'm crazy for backing a piece of shit but Verdasco is very overrated and this is a great spot to fade his ass and send him home. We all saw what the layoff has done to some of these guys this week and Nando has not played since the Australian Open. Melzer on the other hand is coming off a very hard fought battle with Mario Ancic back home in Austria and believe it or not, the indoor hardcourt surface might be more suitable for the pesky Austrian. This is Melzer's first time playing at Marseille while Verdasco has played here once and lost. Nonetheless, I don't even trust Verdasco on any surface but clay and would rather back Melzer who nas not yet played well this season and is bound to break out. This is the same Melzer that beat Malisse and Agassi indoors last season and the same Melzer who beat Gaston Gaudio on this surface back in Austria. Verdasco is 6-9 lifetime on the indoor hardcourt surface and he doesn't have anywhere near the experience that Melzer has on a court like this one. The big Austrian is capable of putting together a few good matches here and there and the spot here as a big underdog is definitely the time to do it. Melzer actually beat some decent players indoors last season while Verdasco's two indoor hardcourt wins came against Kamil Kapkovic (who?) and PHM. Give me the better piece of shit in this one, that being Melzer.



Mario Ancic +100 over Marco Baghdatis ($1000 to win $1000)

The hype has arrived and the cheap money has arrived. Of course tons of people are going to be backing Baghdatis in this matchup because of his run at the Austrlian Open but what has he done since then? Super Mario has kept busy by kicking ass just about everywhere he has played and he is coming off a huge Davis Cup weekend that saw his home Country advance to the next round. Do any of you remember Baghdatis prior to the Australian Open when he lost in the 1st Round of Auckland to Jarkko? That was a pretty brutal loss and I am concerned with the early hype he is getting. He has never played an indoor hardcourt match at the ATP level in his career and this will be his ATP debut on the surface. Sure has has played in some Challenegers but I don't count much into those. In 2004, he played in only two challengers on indoor hardcourts. Ancic is playing in his 3rd Marseille tournament of his career and for those who don't remember, he made the semi-finals here about one year ago only to lose to Ljubicic. Ancic also made the semis of Rotterdam on the indoor hardcourt surface and won that infamous match against Mertinak to seal the deal in the Davis Cup. Ancic needs to control himself and attach a rusty Marco early on. If he can get that done, Ancic wins this match. Big play for me.



other matches coming in the morning...

TwistyServe
02-15-2006, 07:49 AM
Plays on the following:

Verdasco to beat Melzer @1.704
Baggy to beat Ancic @1.870
Santoro to beat Tojo @2.170

Banking on at least two of these three to win :)

Now this is getting scary.. mista is against me on two of three..

im dead :fiery: :)

JMG
02-15-2006, 07:55 AM
Dlouhy over Carlsen @2.87

Schuettler over Vliegen @2.70

Took them on Sunday because I thought the odds would drop and at least I was right with Dlouhy. I dislike Carlsen for his game, I think he's just untalented from the baseline and that's why I back many players against him if the value is good.
Schuettler looked motivated on Sunday, but somehow I already regret this bet. :o

JMG
02-15-2006, 08:02 AM
I just saw the Sacramento Queens gave me a win, so I play a small bet on

Nieminen/Pala over the Rochus/Rochus @2.62 nice odd

TwistyServe
02-15-2006, 08:07 AM
Dlouhy over Carlsen @2.87

Schuettler over Vliegen @2.70

Took them on Sunday because I thought the odds would drop and at least I was right with Dlouhy. I dislike Carlsen for his game, I think he's just untalented from the baseline and that's why I back many players against him if the value is good.
Schuettler looked motivated on Sunday, but somehow I already regret this bet. :o

Schuettler's motivation isnt a question.. its that he plays like scheit heheh ;)

sports freak
02-15-2006, 09:48 AM
Schuettler's motivation isnt a question.. its that he plays like scheit heheh ;)

Schuettler's past his used by date,Kristof should have a day out!!!

sports freak
02-15-2006, 09:49 AM
2006 ATP Tennis Record: 20-5 (+$4650)

First loss in a very long time yesterday and it stung because Dent had that match and blew it. It's time to hop back on the winning horse and take these two dog puppies to the bank for a little bit of loving. Some fun matches but since the lines are not all out, I will be coming back in with more matches later. Good Luck to all!

-------------------------------------




Marseille (Round 1): Wednesday, February 15, 2006



Jurgen Melzer +133 over Fernando Verdasco ($100 to win $133)

You might think I'm crazy for backing a piece of shit but Verdasco is very overrated and this is a great spot to fade his ass and send him home. We all saw what the layoff has done to some of these guys this week and Nando has not played since the Australian Open. Melzer on the other hand is coming off a very hard fought battle with Mario Ancic back home in Austria and believe it or not, the indoor hardcourt surface might be more suitable for the pesky Austrian. This is Melzer's first time playing at Marseille while Verdasco has played here once and lost. Nonetheless, I don't even trust Verdasco on any surface but clay and would rather back Melzer who nas not yet played well this season and is bound to break out. This is the same Melzer that beat Malisse and Agassi indoors last season and the same Melzer who beat Gaston Gaudio on this surface back in Austria. Verdasco is 6-9 lifetime on the indoor hardcourt surface and he doesn't have anywhere near the experience that Melzer has on a court like this one. The big Austrian is capable of putting together a few good matches here and there and the spot here as a big underdog is definitely the time to do it. Melzer actually beat some decent players indoors last season while Verdasco's two indoor hardcourt wins came against Kamil Kapkovic (who?) and PHM. Give me the better piece of shit in this one, that being Melzer.



Mario Ancic +100 over Marco Baghdatis ($1000 to win $1000)

The hype has arrived and the cheap money has arrived. Of course tons of people are going to be backing Baghdatis in this matchup because of his run at the Austrlian Open but what has he done since then? Super Mario has kept busy by kicking ass just about everywhere he has played and he is coming off a huge Davis Cup weekend that saw his home Country advance to the next round. Do any of you remember Baghdatis prior to the Australian Open when he lost in the 1st Round of Auckland to Jarkko? That was a pretty brutal loss and I am concerned with the early hype he is getting. He has never played an indoor hardcourt match at the ATP level in his career and this will be his ATP debut on the surface. Sure has has played in some Challenegers but I don't count much into those. In 2004, he played in only two challengers on indoor hardcourts. Ancic is playing in his 3rd Marseille tournament of his career and for those who don't remember, he made the semi-finals here about one year ago only to lose to Ljubicic. Ancic also made the semis of Rotterdam on the indoor hardcourt surface and won that infamous match against Mertinak to seal the deal in the Davis Cup. Ancic needs to control himself and attach a rusty Marco early on. If he can get that done, Ancic wins this match. Big play for me.



other matches coming in the morning...

Good luck on your plays,looks good

sports freak
02-15-2006, 09:58 AM
Not much stands out,a few dogs worth a shot!!Going with an Aussie Assault,hopefully Arthurs is sobered up!!!!

20 units on Wayne Arthurs 1.93 over Bobby Reynolds-Come on Wayno!!!could add Rusty 1.23 but the name says it all!!!

20 units on Grosjean 1.53/Vliegen 1.50 over Monfils n Schuettler!!!!

8 units onRavan Sabau 2.90over J Marin!!!!
8 units on Mark Philippousis 2.95 over Tommy Robredo!!!!
8 units on Faurel 3.00 over Pretty Boy Lopez!!!!

Leaning on Bjorkman 3.75

Good luck!!!!

Bolar Bolabi
02-15-2006, 10:02 AM
Ljubicic X Grosjean X Gasquet @ $2.57

Reynolds @ $1.73 - BIG PLAY - Arthurs has shoulder problems, back problems and Reynolds has been playing okay. I expect Reynolds to take him out in 2 sets.

Verdasco @ $1.67

its.like.that
02-15-2006, 10:03 AM
ljubo over srichapan looks good to me.

You're back!!!

Where have you been? :awww:

You have been sorely missed here. :hug:

:hatoff:

olix
02-15-2006, 10:06 AM
Mistaflava, doesn't last year's Basel worry you ? That's what's keeping me away from this match :sad:

Horatio Caine
02-15-2006, 11:19 AM
You're back!!!

Where have you been? :awww:

You have been sorely missed here. :hug:

:hatoff:

Jim - stop antagonising everyone...soon there will be no gamblers left in this forum! ;)

its.like.that
02-15-2006, 11:21 AM
Jim - stop antagonising everyone...soon there will be no gamblers left in this forum! ;)

I'm not antogonising anyone.

Jen is an old flame, we go way back.

;)

Horatio Caine
02-15-2006, 11:21 AM
Nothing I like right now guys...

Value in Santoro has diminished...odds are lower and Tojo should be more ready now than he would hve been a day or two ago.

I think Ancic will beat Baggy - look at Mario's indoor record last year...it is consistently good. But his emotional Davis Cup exploits make me refrain from betting on him.

Verdasco should beat Melzer but it is a battle of two chokers and I really can't be bothered with it.

Might be back later with a play from San José or Buenos Aires.

Good luck everyone!

Horatio Caine
02-15-2006, 11:23 AM
Jen is an old flame, we go way back.

;)

Further than we do? :awww: :tears: :lol:

bad gambler
02-15-2006, 11:38 AM
Going to also add:

Beto Martin to beat Pashanski - $1.70

gl

olix
02-15-2006, 11:58 AM
I also like Martin, solid claycourter, hope he starts well this year.

Horatio Caine
02-15-2006, 12:19 PM
Going to also add:

Beto Martin to beat Pashanski - $1.70

gl

F*ck me!! I thought Beto would be @ 1.4 or something!

Beto is a gift @ 1.61 imo.

Taken it! Write-up later...

Breaker
02-15-2006, 12:34 PM
F*ck me!! I thought Beto would be @ 1.4 or something!

Beto is a gift @ 1.61 imo.

Taken it! Write-up later...
You're not wrong mate. I just about fell off my chair when I checked the odds. There is no way Martin has less than a 59% chance, therefore $1.714 at Pinnacle is overs.

EDIT: odds out to $1.725 at Pinny, this could be a trap bet. How is Martins fitness?

Horatio Caine
02-15-2006, 12:40 PM
Sh*t - I hope it isn't a trap. Not sure about fitness. He had a routine R1 win but his mother died suddenly last month so maybe they are taking that into account for his psychological fitness?

Pashanski played 3hrs20mins 2 days ago...he should be the one struggling physically!

bad gambler
02-15-2006, 12:43 PM
F*ck me!! I thought Beto would be @ 1.4 or something!

Beto is a gift @ 1.61 imo.

Taken it! Write-up later...


There is no such thing as a free lunch

Horatio Caine
02-15-2006, 12:45 PM
There is no such thing as a free lunch

Well, if there are no suspicious circumstances surrounding the match then the price is generous really...Pashanski has struggled a lot as of late and if Beto plays well then he should win this.

olix
02-15-2006, 12:47 PM
Dementieva, Clijsters and Fedak @ 1.61

Breaker
02-15-2006, 12:47 PM
Sh*t - I hope it isn't a trap. Not sure about fitness. He had a routine R1 win but his mother died suddenly last month so maybe they are taking that into account for his psychological fitness?

Pashanski played 3hrs20mins 2 days ago...he should be the one struggling physically!
I doubt there is anything wrong with him. He played in a doubles match yesterday (I believe) which went to a match TB, so you'd think if he had any issues with his fitness he wouldn't be playing the great game that is mens doubles.

bad gambler
02-15-2006, 12:48 PM
Well, if there are no suspicious circumstances surrounding the match then the price is generous really...Pashanski has struggled a lot as of late and if Beto plays well then he should win this.


well the kid has been on a full schedule for the past 2 weeks, add to that this is his first full year on the ATP those odds for a fresh martin are generous indeed.

Horatio Caine
02-15-2006, 12:55 PM
Benny - yeah I agree man..unless he injured himself after or something. :scratch: I'd say it is likely that Pasha is getting respect for his good runs as of late and of course Martin hasn't played much this year. Also, of his 10 finals last year, Pasha only made 1 final in South America...and Beto went 7/2 at ATP level in South America last year. Experience really should prevail today.

Prabu - yeah he is new to the scene...some very lucky wins this year more than anything. He gets my respect if he pulls this one out but really, Brzezicki should have finished him 2 days ago.

olix
02-15-2006, 01:10 PM
Speaking of traps, is anything wrong with Massu ? I have him @2.5 against Moya.

Horatio Caine
02-15-2006, 01:12 PM
Speaking of traps, is anything wrong with Massu ? I have him @2.5 against Moya.

Well he apparently has small injuries - nothing major to worry about. But he also hasn't been playing all that well. I think Moya's odds are quite attractive.

olix
02-15-2006, 01:16 PM
Massu not playing well ? Final at Vina del Mar, and demolishing Hrbaty in DC ?

I have Moya @1.40 and Massu@2.50. Moya doesn't tempt me at that price.

bad gambler
02-15-2006, 01:20 PM
Speaking of traps, is anything wrong with Massu ? I have him @2.5 against Moya.


trap is the most overrated word in gambling speak

sports freak
02-15-2006, 01:28 PM
F*ck me!! I thought Beto would be @ 1.4 or something!

Beto is a gift @ 1.61 imo.

Taken it! Write-up later...

Agree Berto looks like an absolute GIFT

olix
02-15-2006, 01:29 PM
trap is the most overrated word in gambling speak


I'm not sure I understand. I'm not an experienced gambler :angel:

sports freak
02-15-2006, 01:32 PM
Ljubicic X Grosjean X Gasquet @ $2.57

Reynolds @ $1.73 - BIG PLAY - Arthurs has shoulder problems, back problems and Reynolds has been playing okay. I expect Reynolds to take him out in 2 sets.

Verdasco @ $1.67

Ah man,last thing i needed to know about Wayno problems,it wasnt going to be easy for him fit now its like walking up a 50 degree hill,thanks for the info Bolar,thankful im not on him much and you have warned others about his injury!!all the best mate!!!Congrats on Verdasco aswell

bad gambler
02-15-2006, 01:32 PM
I'm not sure I understand. I'm not an experienced gambler :angel:


I mean don't use words like "trap"

Look at a tennis match on its face value, if you think Massu is going to win and have a good reasoning behind it, go for it

At $2+ it does look reasonable. However take into consideration that Massu is coming off a final in Chile and DC matches both singles and doubles.

sports freak
02-15-2006, 01:44 PM
Adding!!!!

30 units on Alberto Martins 1.65/Juan Carlos Ferrero 1.21 @ 1.99 over B Pashanski/F Saretta- Both players are on another level to their opponents hopefully they play that way!!!

8 units on Martin 1.65/ JCF 1.21/Rusty 1.23/Chela 1.50 @ 3.68 - Rusty over Goldstein n Chela over Starace!!

olix
02-15-2006, 02:16 PM
I mean don't use words like "trap"

Look at a tennis match on its face value, if you think Massu is going to win and have a good reasoning behind it, go for it

At $2+ it does look reasonable. However take into consideration that Massu is coming off a final in Chile and DC matches both singles and doubles.


Thanks. I'm also taking into consideration that Moya is coming off from an injury, and that he hasn't played on clay since August 2005, when he lost to Potito Starace.

Taking Massu @2.52

TwistyServe
02-15-2006, 02:16 PM
Plays on the following:

Verdasco to beat Melzer @1.704
Baggy to beat Ancic @1.870
Santoro to beat Tojo @2.170

Banking on at least two of these three to win :)

Great day so far .. two of the three already won which helps with my confidence as I was banking for two of the three to win :)

Santoro wins 6-4, 7-6
Verdasco wins 6-4, 7-6


Go go baggy!

bad gambler
02-15-2006, 02:17 PM
Thanks. I'm also taking into consideration that Moya is coming off from an injury, and that he hasn't played on clay since August 2005, when he lost to Potito Starace.

Taking Massu @2.52

some of the boys here have great memories of that match ;)

gl mate, will be cheering him on for you.

dbnumberone
02-15-2006, 02:32 PM
I don't think Massu's a bad pick at those odds, he's had a bunch of 3 setters lately, but you can take that to show how he fights too - plus Moya hasn't bee anything special for a long time now - that said, I'm not taking it, but hope Massu wins.

I bet to win a unit on Volandri :eek:
Just think about the success he had last year at this tourney, when he took an impressive 6 games off Lars "Prince of Clay" Burgsmuller - I'd love to know what really happened there.
Anyway, Vola is usually a good bet on clay in the early rds., had a nice rd. 1 victory, was already sick this year so should be fit & has drilled Behrend in 2 prev. matches
GL all

Horatio Caine
02-15-2006, 02:33 PM
Well done guys...why oh why didn't I have the courage to go with my convictions? :confused: :mad: :retard: :banghead: :smash:

I just hope Beto Martin makes me happy today! :yeah:

dbnumberone
02-15-2006, 02:34 PM
how about this faurel stampeding his way through quallies & Lopez - one to keep an eye on...

Horatio Caine
02-15-2006, 02:36 PM
Anyone rate Starace over Chela? I think that is a possible upset tomorrow

its.like.that
02-15-2006, 02:40 PM
Thanks. I'm also taking into consideration that Moya is coming off from an injury, and that he hasn't played on clay since August 2005, when he lost to Potito Starace.

Taking Massu @2.52

Which booky is giving you that price?

:confused:

TwistyServe
02-15-2006, 03:00 PM
Taking massu over moya @2.02.. small play

Mistaflava
02-15-2006, 03:02 PM
adding plays....0-1 on the day with Ancic pending

-------------------------------



Buenos Aires (Round 2): Wednesday, January 15, 2006


Alberton Martin -149 over Boris Pashanski ($745 to win $500)

This was a tough one to cap but in the end I see Beto taking the match. Boris has been tremendous on clay courts over the last year or so (57-17 on clay courts in both ATP and Challenger events). However, he has been losing sets in almost all his wins this season and Beto is all about business when he plays in the South American tournaments. Martin is 6-4 lifetime at Buenos Aires and three of the four he has lost at this tournament have been to Argentinian players. I was impressed by Martin last year when he walked into this place and beat Ferrer, Canas, Mantilla and had a great semi-final loss to Gaudio. Pashanski has been tearing things up on the Challenger circuit but this is the big boys and Pashanski looked horrible in the first round, losing a set to a Wild Card. Pashanskis tried his luck in Buenos Aires in 2005 and lost in the first round of qualifying to Julio Silva. Martin has been taking some time off since his two tournaments back in early January. He did almost the same thing in 2005 when he took time off after the Australian Open and then went on a tear in the South American tournaments. Beto looked sharp in Round 1 and I see performing well at such good odds. Pashanski is definitely going to make us some money in the future but I don't see it happening here and I am all over Beto to win.




San Jose (Round 1): Wednesday, February 15, 2006


Kenneth Carlsen -159 over Lukas Dlouhy ($1590 to win $1000)

Kenneth Carlsen is definitely not someone you want to be backing on a daily basis but I like the spot here and I like what he has done on this type of surface. Carlsen smoked Hernych in Zagreb before giving eventual champion Ivan Ljubicic a good run for his money. Carlsen has enjoyed playing in the US and he has enjoyed the indoor hardcourts. Carlsen has won 6 straight ATP Indoor Hardcourt opening round matches dating all the way back to 2003. Impressive to say the least and worth my while and money. Dlouhy's odds are decent only because he is coming off a Title win at the Challenger in Poland last week. Dlouhy is 6-10 lifetime versus left-handers and those were almost all in Challenger events. Sure he won that Challenger on this same surface but this is against the big boys now and Carlsen has played well in San Jose. Carlsen has made it out of the first round in San Jose all four times he has played here and today should be no different. This has ugly match written all over it because both players have stability problems and both players have blown matches on this surface. I am backing the veteran Carlsen with my money because I have seen a spark from him in opening rounds and he is definitely worth the punt here. Give me Carlsen for the $$$.



:eek:

Horatio Caine
02-15-2006, 03:06 PM
Well I agree with both plays mate...but I don't like to fade a man who is winning many matches indoors right now. Carlsen should win but I hope you don't regret that large stake ;) :scared:

bad gambler
02-15-2006, 03:08 PM
looks like everyone has jumped on the martin express, this has the makings of a horrific derailment :rolleyes:

Mistaflava
02-15-2006, 03:14 PM
looks like everyone has jumped on the martin express, this has the makings of a horrific derailment :rolleyes:



you mean à la Dent?


:rolleyes:

its.like.that
02-15-2006, 03:14 PM
looks like everyone has jumped on the martin express, this has the makings of a horrific derailment :rolleyes:

:lol:

Horatio Caine
02-15-2006, 03:25 PM
looks like everyone has jumped on the martin express, this has the makings of a horrific derailment :rolleyes:

DON'T YOU DARE TEMPT FATE!!! :mad: :fiery: :help:

olix
02-15-2006, 03:26 PM
Which booky is giving you that price?

:confused:



A Romanian one,the bookies here are clearly overrating some players, and there is money to be made by speculating this, as the odds don't change from the moment that they are posted.

olix
02-15-2006, 03:33 PM
some of the boys here have great memories of that match ;)

gl mate, will be cheering him on for you.


Thanks. This is the boldest non-tiny bet for me :D Hoping he comes through.

TwistyServe
02-15-2006, 03:45 PM
Forgot to mention.. I'm on

Marin X Vliegen @1.96

JMG
02-15-2006, 03:45 PM
Jarkko/Pala d. Rochus/Rochus 6-2 6-3 @2.62, but I played only half stakes.

TwistyServe
02-15-2006, 03:47 PM
Going to look at a good opportunity for fading out Nadal and Coria!

Coria almost dropped out of the first set barely getting by on the 3rd set TB.. Though his weak serve isn't so bad on clay he just isn't as consistent anymore...

Nadal is great but coming back from injury and playing on indoors just doesnt seem like he can make it all the way.

TwistyServe
02-15-2006, 03:48 PM
Jarkko/Pala d. Rochus/Rochus 6-2 6-3 @2.62, but I played only half stakes.

Another nice pick man. I was thinking of going for Jarkko mainly beacuse two taller guys should beat two migits ... just kidding :)

Good pick nonetheless!

TwistyServe
02-15-2006, 03:53 PM
adding plays....0-1 on the day with Ancic pending

-------------------------------



Buenos Aires (Round 2): Wednesday, January 15, 2006


Alberton Martin -149 over Boris Pashanski ($745 to win $500)


San Jose (Round 1): Wednesday, February 15, 2006

Kenneth Carlsen -159 over Lukas Dlouhy ($1590 to win $1000)


:eek:

Some bold plays today mista.. you must be very confident ! :cool:

its.like.bolar
02-15-2006, 05:11 PM
i took Finland -1.5 in ice hockey X Mario Ancic @ 2.8

Richard Gasquet X A.Martin @ 1.92

:tennis:

dbnumberone
02-15-2006, 05:13 PM
Going to look at a good opportunity for fading out Nadal and Coria!

Coria almost dropped out of the first set barely getting by on the 3rd set TB.. Though his weak serve isn't so bad on clay he just isn't as consistent anymore...

Nadal is great but coming back from injury and playing on indoors just doesnt seem like he can make it all the way.

Lol, Coria not as consistent - he dominates on clay - check last years results, & lost in the quarters of the US Open - 1 3 set match makes him not as consistent? You're picking against the likely tourney winner...gl w/ that.
That said,
I'm betting to win a unit on Coria - easy pickings

Nadal is a different story, as hot as Simon is - if you have to chase some losses w/ a big dog, play that one - still wouldn't touch it

TwistyServe
02-15-2006, 05:20 PM
Lol, Coria not as consistent - he dominates on clay - check last years results, & lost in the quarters of the US Open - 1 3 set match makes him not as consistent? You're picking against the likely tourney winner...gl w/ that.
That said,
I'm betting to win a unit on Coria - easy pickings

Nadal is a different story, as hot as Simon is - if you have to chase some losses w/ a big dog, play that one - still wouldn't touch it

You seem to like to back big favorites 1.1 and 1.2s.. thought Ferrer's and Andreev's lost would deterr you from that type of betting.. anyway GL!

dbnumberone
02-15-2006, 05:26 PM
You seem to like to back big favorites 1.1 and 1.2s.. thought Ferrer's and Andreev's lost would deterr you from that type of betting.. anyway GL!

Lol, I post my record every week & betting favorites works out just fine for me - up 20 plus units on the year, they've all been posted here - how does backing 4.0s work out for you?
I guess when your big dogs lose you can always just post fake scores like you did the other day & pretend you've won - anyway GL!

TwistyServe
02-15-2006, 05:28 PM
Lol, I post my record every week & betting favorites works out just fine for me - up 20 plus units on the year, they've all been posted here - how does backing 4.0s work out for you?
I guess when your big dogs lose you can always just post fake scores like you did the other day & pretend you've won - anyway GL!

I've never backed a big dog.. never said i was backin coria or nadal.. i said i was going to look at opportunities to fade them.. there's a difference.. i dont think i've backed anyone over 2.2 past 3 weeks! lol

olix
02-15-2006, 05:30 PM
Gaudio and Chucho also dominate on clay, that didn't stop them from getting rammed by Ramirez-Hidalgo. Who knows, maybe the pattern will continue.

TwistyServe
02-15-2006, 05:33 PM
This means I'm backing someone:
Plays on the following:

Verdasco to beat Melzer @1.704
Baggy to beat Ancic @1.870
Santoro to beat Tojo @2.170

Banking on at least two of these three to win :)



This means I'm telling my thoughts to the board:
Going to look at a good opportunity for fading out Nadal and Coria!

Coria almost dropped out of the first set barely getting by on the 3rd set TB.. Though his weak serve isn't so bad on clay he just isn't as consistent anymore...

Nadal is great but coming back from injury and playing on indoors just doesnt seem like he can make it all the way.


Anyone else get confused? :angel:

dbnumberone
02-15-2006, 05:38 PM
[QUOTE=TwistServe]


This means I'm telling my thoughts to the board:

QUOTE]

Well then, you're welcome for me talking you out of betting on RRH, who couldn't make it past quallies :rolleyes:

Anders
02-15-2006, 05:38 PM
YTD: 39-37 +29.33 units

WTD: 2-5 -2.15 units

Buenos Aires

Ramirez-Hidalgo +500 o Coria (1)

GK all

Horatio Caine
02-15-2006, 06:27 PM
I've never backed a big dog.. never said i was backin coria or nadal.. i said i was going to look at opportunities to fade them.. there's a difference.. i dont think i've backed anyone over 2.2 past 3 weeks! lol

I really wouldn't

olix
02-15-2006, 06:47 PM
Gasquet is doing it again :o

TwistyServe
02-15-2006, 06:59 PM
Forgot to mention.. I'm on

Marin X Vliegen @1.96

Another win for the day!

Marin beats Sabua easily 6-1, 6-1!

Vliegen beats Shittler easily 6-1, 6-3!

So far 3 for 3 (4 for 4 on matches)...

Lets go baggy make me a perfect day@

Horatio Caine
02-15-2006, 07:47 PM
What is it with me bring confident on something...I research well, everything looks great...and one or two flaming points cost the match. Yet to hit a confident match this year...I'm off :(

Mistaflava
02-15-2006, 09:00 PM
San Jose (Round 1): Wednesday, February 15, 2006


Kenneth Carlsen -159 over Lukas Dlouhy ($1590 to win $1000)

Kenneth Carlsen is definitely not someone you want to be backing on a daily basis but I like the spot here and I like what he has done on this type of surface. Carlsen smoked Hernych in Zagreb before giving eventual champion Ivan Ljubicic a good run for his money. Carlsen has enjoyed playing in the US and he has enjoyed the indoor hardcourts. Carlsen has won 6 straight ATP Indoor Hardcourt opening round matches dating all the way back to 2003. Impressive to say the least and worth my while and money. Dlouhy's odds are decent only because he is coming off a Title win at the Challenger in Poland last week. Dlouhy is 6-10 lifetime versus left-handers and those were almost all in Challenger events. Sure he won that Challenger on this same surface but this is against the big boys now and Carlsen has played well in San Jose. Carlsen has made it out of the first round in San Jose all four times he has played here and today should be no different. This has ugly match written all over it because both players have stability problems and both players have blown matches on this surface. I am backing the veteran Carlsen with my money because I have seen a spark from him in opening rounds and he is definitely worth the punt here. Give me Carlsen for the $$$.



:eek:



Carlsen wins 3-6 6-2 6-1


:worship: :worship: :worship: :worship: :worship:


Now it's up to the big play on Ancic to make my day worth it

Grinder
02-15-2006, 09:17 PM
Just took:
Ramirez Hidalgo over Coria @ +440 - $250 to win $1100

bournerdan
02-15-2006, 09:19 PM
Can't see coria losing to RRH but good luck with that one, I'm staying off because the coria odds aren;t worth it anyway. What are people thinking about the MOYA MASSU match up?

TwistyServe
02-15-2006, 09:21 PM
Can't see coria losing to RRH but good luck with that one, I'm staying off because the coria odds aren;t worth it anyway. What are people thinking about the MOYA MASSU match up?

I have massu! Thinking it could be a tight match but I haven't seen moya do much over the past year.. Sure he's had his share of wins but he's also lost to many many players.

bournerdan
02-15-2006, 09:22 PM
I was thinking Massu since I watched him neutralise Fena the other week, could be close, maybe worth a small play on Nico then.....

dbnumberone
02-15-2006, 10:31 PM
I bet to win a unit on Volandri :eek:
Just think about the success he had last year at this tourney, when he took an impressive 6 games off Lars "Prince of Clay" Burgsmuller - I'd love to know what really happened there.
Anyway, Vola is usually a good bet on clay in the early rds., had a nice rd. 1 victory, was already sick this year so should be fit & has drilled Behrend in 2 prev. matches
GL all

Another easy 3 setter!
Except maybe when Vola lost the first set - handily
& was down a break in the 2nd
& went to a 2nd set tiebreak
& lost his minibreak
& lost his minibreak again
& never broke in the 3rd set
& went to a 3rd set tiebreak
& immediately went down a minibreak
& blew a minibreak
but my book doesn't penalize for close victories !
3-0 this week, all 3 setters :cool:

sports freak
02-15-2006, 10:59 PM
Damn Alberto choked badly,serving first in the 3rd set n also the tie breaker n still couldnt get up!!Massu is worth a shot over Moya especially the way Nico been hitting the ball lately!!!Moya looks abit rusty still!!!

bad gambler
02-15-2006, 11:43 PM
looks like everyone has jumped on the martin express, this has the makings of a horrific derailment :rolleyes:


........................

Mistaflava
02-16-2006, 12:06 AM
Mario Ancic +100 over Marco Baghdatis ($1000 to win $1000)

The hype has arrived and the cheap money has arrived. Of course tons of people are going to be backing Baghdatis in this matchup because of his run at the Austrlian Open but what has he done since then? Super Mario has kept busy by kicking ass just about everywhere he has played and he is coming off a huge Davis Cup weekend that saw his home Country advance to the next round. Do any of you remember Baghdatis prior to the Australian Open when he lost in the 1st Round of Auckland to Jarkko? That was a pretty brutal loss and I am concerned with the early hype he is getting. He has never played an indoor hardcourt match at the ATP level in his career and this will be his ATP debut on the surface. Sure has has played in some Challenegers but I don't count much into those. In 2004, he played in only two challengers on indoor hardcourts. Ancic is playing in his 3rd Marseille tournament of his career and for those who don't remember, he made the semi-finals here about one year ago only to lose to Ljubicic. Ancic also made the semis of Rotterdam on the indoor hardcourt surface and won that infamous match against Mertinak to seal the deal in the Davis Cup. Ancic needs to control himself and attach a rusty Marco early on. If he can get that done, Ancic wins this match. Big play for me.



other matches coming in the morning...



Ancic wins 6-2 6-7 6-4



:worship: :worship: :worship: :worship: :worship:


I had a 2-2 day but my big daddy bets both hit...im happy. See you guys tomorrow!

bad gambler
02-16-2006, 12:08 AM
I have money tied up from yesterday in:

Santoro to beat Johansson - $2.27
Baghdatis to beat Ancic - $1.84


Adding:

Goldstein to beat Hewitt - $4.10 (small play)


be lucky


magician wins, baggy loses

goldstein pending, but even if he wins a red day for me

its.like.that
02-16-2006, 12:26 AM
........................

:singer:

Let's count them up... bad gambler, Mistaflava, Jez, Breaker, sports freak...

It's like the new Rat Pack.

olix
02-16-2006, 12:27 AM
Hidalgo is on to it again..

TwistyServe
02-16-2006, 12:33 AM
Hidalgo is on to it again..

Don't jinx it just yet.. hoping coria wins so grinder gets the big payoff :worship: .. I wanted to fade coria but couldnt do it just yet..

dbnumberone
02-16-2006, 12:50 AM
lol, once again, I'm wrong in style - *really wrong*!
too bad T&S didn't get on that, lol
nice pick grinder & whoever else was on RRH
I'll manage that loss though, 3-1 for the week, down 2.2 units

TwistyServe
02-16-2006, 12:50 AM
Lol, Coria not as consistent - he dominates on clay - check last years results, & lost in the quarters of the US Open - 1 3 set match makes him not as consistent? You're picking against the likely tourney winner...gl w/ that.
That said,
I'm betting to win a unit on Coria - easy pickings


Sorry mate i tried to warn you.. heavy favorites = a death sentence.. and then picking an inconsistent coria is ...

Grinder
02-16-2006, 12:56 AM
Don't jinx it just yet.. hoping coria wins so grinder gets the big payoff :worship: .. I wanted to fade coria but couldnt do it just yet..

Thanks bud :yeah:

I don't think I've ever went on someone with such low odds.

RAMIREZ HIDALGO IS GOD :worship: :worship: :worship:

Mistaflava
02-16-2006, 01:00 AM
Thanks bud :yeah:

I don't think I've ever went on someone with such low odds.

RAMIREZ HIDALGO IS GOD :worship: :worship: :worship:


awesome pick...very impressive man


:worship:

Anders
02-16-2006, 01:03 AM
nice one grinder :)

Buenos Aires - Ramirez Hidalgo o Coria +500/$6 (1 unit)

landed ancic too, so a happy day for me, 1st decent contribution to the board since joining... :cool:

bad gambler
02-16-2006, 01:14 AM
nice calls grinder and anders

Bolar Bolabi
02-16-2006, 01:24 AM
Ah man,last thing i needed to know about Wayno problems,it wasnt going to be easy for him fit now its like walking up a 50 degree hill,thanks for the info Bolar,thankful im not on him much and you have warned others about his injury!!all the best mate!!!Congrats on Verdasco aswell

Thanks!

Bloody Gasquet. I should have stuck with my sure betting tip of not tipping Gasquet on surface's other than clay or grass.

That's cool about the info on Wayno. He lost the first set and the second set could be pushing into a tiebreak. If the match goes to 3, Arthurs will lose.

Bolar Bolabi
02-16-2006, 01:27 AM
looks like everyone has jumped on the martin express, this has the makings of a horrific derailment :rolleyes:

Surprisingly, I wasn't on it - it still derailed though. Bad luck! Win it back!

olix
02-16-2006, 01:27 AM
LOL reading up the Volandri vs Behrend story, they named him Fernando Volandri

Fernando Volandri displayed nerves of steel Wednesday as he prevailed over German Tomas Behrend in the second and third tie-breaks to advance to the quarterfinals at the Copa Telmex.

Bolar Bolabi
02-16-2006, 01:28 AM
i took Finland -1.5 in ice hockey X Mario Ancic @ 2.8

Richard Gasquet X A.Martin @ 1.92

:tennis:

Love ya nick!

dbnumberone
02-16-2006, 01:34 AM
Sorry mate i tried to warn you.. heavy favorites = a death sentence.. and then picking an inconsistent coria is ...

that loss puts me down to +20.3 units on the year picking favs, so we'll just have to agree to disagree on picking favs
The big mistake was backing Coria after a 3 set loss, but just didn't see a trend there - now I do!
& that's that - GL w/ Massu

Experimentee
02-16-2006, 01:43 AM
I'm taking a small bet on Goldstein to beat Hewitt at $4.75, hopefully I'll get something right after my DC disaster!
I wanted to take Hidalgo before but didnt have enough money in the account at the time.

TwistyServe
02-16-2006, 01:44 AM
that loss puts me down to +20.3 units on the year picking favs, so we'll just have to agree to disagree on picking favs
The big mistake was backing Coria after a 3 set loss, but just didn't see a trend there - now I do!
& that's that - GL w/ Massu

Agreed!


Now lets go massu!

its.like.that
02-16-2006, 02:06 AM
Thanks!

Bloody Gasquet. I should have stuck with my sure betting tip of not tipping Gasquet on surface's other than clay or grass.

Gasquet is a claycourter through and through.

Just coz he won that shitty optional on grass, doesn't make him apt on that surface.

:cuckoo:

TwistyServe
02-16-2006, 02:29 AM
Just won on Wayne over Bobby @2.0... adding:

Hewitt x Robredo @1.72 ... Hewitt is classes above the mighty Paul. Even if Hewitt isn't back to form, he should still be 1 class above the goldman. I expect hewitt to finish paul in straights. ... Robredo over the out of form scud should be straight forward. If flip has a nice serve day might go to 3 sets or some tough TBs. Hopefully not.

Im 4 of 5 today with Massu pending.. using part of the profits to extend this "lead".. Today's luck to my advantage I hope :)

TwistyServe
02-16-2006, 04:49 AM
Just won on Wayne over Bobby @2.0... adding:

Hewitt x Robredo @1.72 ... Hewitt is classes above the mighty Paul. Even if Hewitt isn't back to form, he should still be 1 class above the goldman. I expect hewitt to finish paul in straights. ... Robredo over the out of form scud should be straight forward. If flip has a nice serve day might go to 3 sets or some tough TBs. Hopefully not.

Im 4 of 5 today with Massu pending.. using part of the profits to extend this "lead".. Today's luck to my advantage I hope :)

Sadly robredo gets broken 5 times to lose the match in the 3rd set.. oh well still got some green for the day by betting with part of the proceeds from earlier.. Still in shock skuds return game could take out robredo