NBA - UNDERS Situational Plays [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

NBA - UNDERS Situational Plays

bad gambler
01-31-2006, 05:21 AM
Sometimes the most obvious bets are winners.

This might be just a coincidence but whenever two teams play back to back matches and the total is a relatively high one, from my experience more often than not it falls UNDER.

From tomorrow onwards, I will start and track certain games that fit a particular situation. The criteria is as follows:

1. Both teams involved must have played the night before
2. The total set for the match in question must be 198.5 or over
3. The teams that are playing must be from different conferences

The theory is obvious, that if the players get heavy legs in the second half and the pace of the game drops off especially if it involves a team on the road trip on the other side of the country hence the inclusion of the last point.

Post games that fit into the above category, (Teams involved and the TOTALS line) it will be interesting to see how many do hit the UNDERS for the rest of the season.


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Season Record 2-2-0

1. Clippers v Raptors - LOSS
2. Cavs v Warriors - WIN
3. Nuggets v Magic - LOSS
4. Celtics v Lakers - WIN

sports freak
02-01-2006, 12:27 AM
Sometimes the most obvious bets are winners.

This might be just a coincidence but whenever two teams play back to back matches and the total is a relatively high one, from my experience more often than not it falls UNDER.

From tomorrow onwards, I will start and track certain games that fit a particular situation. The criteria is as follows:

1. Both teams involved must have played the night before
2. The total set for the match in question must be 198.5 or over
3. The teams that are playing must be from different conferences

The theory is obvious, that if the players get heavy legs in the second half and the pace of the game drops off especially if it involves a team on the road trip on the other side of the country hence the inclusion of the last point.

Post games that fit into the above category, (Teams involved and the TOTALS line) it will be interesting to see how many do hit the UNDERS for the rest of the season.

Even more so 2nd half in the b2b games,say if the first half goes over or high scoring then the chance of the 2nd half after b2b games would be more then not low scoring,sometime you got to look at the team itself say some teams are younger n may not effect them as much as older teams or even some teams have weaker benches therefor their starting 5 are used much more or should i say rely on more :)

andrew057
02-05-2006, 03:42 PM
This system sounds pretty tight. Have there been any plays yet?

bad gambler
02-05-2006, 06:52 PM
Apologies, since it was a very early game (my time) i didn't have the chance to post it:

GAME: Clippers v Raptors
DATE: 5/2/06
TOTAL: 203.5

bad gambler
02-05-2006, 08:53 PM
Apologies, since it was a very early game (my time) i didn't have the chance to post it:

GAME: Clippers v Raptors
DATE: 5/2/06
TOTAL: 203.5


Well in principle this bet won (Reg score of 202) but due to OT it went OVER.

I will however still count this as a loss.

dbnumberone
02-05-2006, 09:07 PM
Excellent theory - if you post them ahead of time & I'll get in on that action...

bad gambler
02-05-2006, 09:25 PM
obviously this is a very simplistic system but I am satisfied the logic is sound even though these guys are pros and backing up is something all of them are used to.

i have been working on a few other systems for sides and overs betting but might try that next season :)

bad gambler
02-11-2006, 03:54 PM
Ok so another game today falls into the criteria.

GAME: Cavs v Warriors
DATE: 11/2/06
TOTAL: 201.5

bad gambler
02-12-2006, 04:24 AM
Ok so another game today falls into the criteria.

GAME: Cavs v Warriors
DATE: 11/2/06
TOTAL: 201.5


FT Warriors win 99-91

WIN

dbnumberone
02-12-2006, 05:50 AM
FT Warriors win 99-91

WIN

dangit, I was out & about & missed it - congrats!

andrew057
02-12-2006, 07:10 AM
Very nice BG.

bad gambler
03-04-2006, 09:42 AM
We have another play for today:

GAME: Nuggets v Magic
DATE: 4/3/06
TOTAL: 199.5

bad gambler
03-05-2006, 05:14 AM
We have another play for today:

GAME: Nuggets v Magic
DATE: 4/3/06
TOTAL: 199.5


FT

Nuggets 110-94

LOST

bad gambler
03-20-2006, 01:43 PM
GAME: Celtics v Lakers
DATE: 20/3/06
TOTAL: 202.5

theonekyuuto
03-20-2006, 06:16 PM
I think the Celtics vs Lakers game can go over 202.5 this line. But personally i don't pay too much attention on the game total, it's just too risky and unpredictable.

bad gambler
03-20-2006, 09:35 PM
I think the Celtics vs Lakers game can go over 202.5 this line. But personally i don't pay too much attention on the game total, it's just too risky and unpredictable.


I also think this will sail over, but the purpose of this thread was just to track games that fit into the above criteria to get a feel of whether there is any substance to my logic. Unfortunately I was unable to do this at the start of the season to get a better gauge.

bad gambler
03-21-2006, 03:04 AM
GAME: Celtics v Lakers
DATE: 20/3/06
TOTAL: 202.5


FT

Lakers win 105-97

WON