Worthless' AO Seed Report: Predicts Federer-Roddick Final [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Worthless' AO Seed Report: Predicts Federer-Roddick Final

silverwhite
01-13-2006, 06:01 PM
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/jon_wertheim/01/13/aussie.men/index.html

Sports Illustrated senior writer Jon Wertheim breaks down the men's and women's seeds at the Australian Open. Read on for the top first-round matchups, dark horses to keep an eye on and his predicted winners.

It's hard to recall a major so ravaged by injuries. If you ever needed proof that tennis injuries have officially reached crisis proportion, note the All-Star team of players who won't be in Melbourne. And be assured, there are more to come. Before the game cannibalizes itself, will someone -- anyone! -- address this in a meaningful way?

Depleted cast and all, the show will go on. Inasmuch as anyone can withstand seven matches in two weeks, here is our 2006 Australian Open seed report:

Top 16 seeds
1. Roger Federer: Much as we would like to tip and underdog, in good conscience it's awfully hard to pick against the Fed. Playing on a choice surface, against a somewhat depleted field, with a benign draw, the '04 champ is a heavy favorite.

2. Andy Roddick: After a forgettable '05, the top American has been gearing toward this event since. Besides, redemption doesn't hit the ... oh, never mind. A mushy draw should enable him to get in top a groove for he second week.

3. Lleyton Hewitt: The hometown favorite played some of his best tennis of '05 to reach last year's final. While Hewitt is not the type to be distracted, his play in the tune-ups was unpromising. Say this: a) Take note when he loses; Hewitt has lost his last seven Grand Slam matches to the eventual champ; b) The lengths Hewitt will go to shield his family from the spotlight will become a national cause celebre.

4. David Nalbandian: El Mullet is coming off the confidence-building Shanghai title. Plus the surface suits his strengths. But, like so many, he is less than 100-percent physically.

5. Nikolay Davydenko: The consensus is that he had his year to shine and will now turn into a pumpkin. We disagree. A steady artisan who doesn't do a lot of missing. Brutal first-rounder against Ivo Karlovic. Then his draw opens a bit.

6. Guillermo Coria: Still looking for the breakthrough in a non-clay Slam. Footspeed is always as asset, but when he loses off the bat to Vic Hanescu, you can say you read it here first.

7. Ivan Ljubicic: Strains belief that Lubey -- one of the less wholesome nicknames in sports, come to think of it -- has never made the second week of a major. That ought to change in Australia. Look for him in the round of 16 at least.

8. Gaston Gaudio: That Gaudio's seeding suggests that he will reach the quarterfinal is testament to just how denuded this field is. Streamin' Gaudio's draw is unimposing, but it's easy to see him losing to, say, former finalist Rainer Schuettler in Round 2.

9. Fernando Gonzalez: Odds always catch up with him and he can never sustain his go-for-broke ball-striking over seven matches. On the other hand, when he's on, he sure is fun to watch.

10. Thomas Johansson: The surprise '02 champ is always dangerous. Will have to to survive a tricky section of the draw (Mikhail Youzhny, Tomas Berdych, Ljubicic) for the right to play Roddick.

11. David Ferrer: Compactly-built Spaniard can play on faster surfaces, but it's hard to see him surviving Mario Ancic in round three.

12. Dominik Hrbaty: Always dangerous, but always susceptible to a bad loss.

13. Robby Ginepri: Can he build on U.S. Open success? You wish he were a bit healthier (and weren't destined to play Roddick) but the surface and conditions favor his game.

14. Richard Gasquet: Now that he has resuscitated his career, is the ultra-talented Frenchman ready to take the next step? Brutal first-rounder against Tommy Haas will either galvanize him or result in a first-round loss.

15. Juan Carlos Ferrero: Former French Open champ was a semifinalist in Melbourne two years ago, but a bad loss in a tune-up doesn't bodes well.

16. Tommy Robredo: The fast surface doesn't afford him the time to line up his big shots. If the Tim Henman/Dmitry Tursunov winner beats him in Round 2, it would be less than shocking.

Seeds 17-32
Let me preface this by saying you take away Federer, Roddick and Hewitt, I would take the 17- to 32-seeded players over the 1-16 seeds.

17. Radek Stepanek: A powerful player with nice hands around the net. Never a threat to win but one to watch.

18. Mario Ancic: Star this pony. On the heels of Davis Cup heroics, Croatian ace machine is in-form.

19. Tom Berdych: Safin Jr. might pick up where his forbear left off.

20. James Blake: Since the U.S. Open series, he has acquitted himself like a top-10 player.

22. Gael Monfils: The '05 Rookie of the Year will be a true top-flight player before long.

26. Jarkko Nieminen: The pride of Turku, Finland, is coming off a quarterfinal performance at U.S. Open.

24. Olivier Rochus: As always.

32. Carlos Moya: After a dismal '05 that looked like a retirement announcement was forthcoming, Moya had come out of the gate strong.

Dark-horse nation
Tommy Haas: New haircut. New coach. A win over Federer. So far it's been a good year.

Tim Henman: Okay, he's on the downside of his career. But he's still capable of stringing together a nice run.

Joachim Johansson: Big-time serve always an indispensable asset. Plus -- even before factoring in the Hewitt connection -- Swedes traditionally play well in Melbourne.

Gilles Muller: Remember him?

First-round matchups to watch
Haas vs. Gasquet: A reasonable final at most events.

Andrew Murray vs. Juan Ignacio Chela: Good test for best players, one a poised teenager, the other a steady vet.

Sebastein Grosjean vs. Mark Philippoussis: Does the native Melbournian have any game left in him?

Henman vs. Tursunov: A rematch of their Wimbledon throwdown.

Doubles Winner
Bob and Mike Bryan: Lost in a tune-up, but hard to go against a team that made all four Grand Slam finals in '05.

Semifinals
Ancic vs. Roddick
Federer vs. Gael Monfils

Finals
Roddick vs. Federer

Winner
Federer




Sports Illustrated senior writer Jon Wertheim covers tennis for the magazine and is a regular contributor to SI.com.

squirtkb97
01-13-2006, 06:06 PM
Joachim Johansson: Big-time serve always an indispensable asset. Plus -- even before factoring in the Hewitt connection -- Swedes traditionally play well in Melbourne.

I must say my favorite part of that is where he lists Joachim Johansson as a dark horse when he's not even playing the event.

jazz_girl
01-13-2006, 06:08 PM
:lol:

cobalt60
01-13-2006, 06:09 PM
I like what he has to say about seeds 17-32.:)

alfonsojose
01-13-2006, 06:13 PM
Radek powerful :tape: Sports Illustrated should perform doping tests :smoke:

Socket
01-13-2006, 06:18 PM
I must say my favorite part of that is where he lists Joachim Johansson as a dark horse when he's not even playing the event.
And his relationship with Jaslyn Hewitt ended months ago. :rolleyes:

El Legenda
01-13-2006, 06:26 PM
Monfils just got spanked in all 3 of his matches at Kooyong and Wertheim says he will be in the semis.

NicoFan
01-13-2006, 06:29 PM
Yup, it is worthless. :lol:

Peoples
01-13-2006, 06:32 PM
Monfils is Wertheim's favourite player.

GonzoFan
01-13-2006, 06:33 PM
I must say my favorite part of that is where he lists Joachim Johansson as a dark horse when he's not even playing the event.

:haha:

Lleytonisthebest
01-13-2006, 06:43 PM
it's sure!! last year he put monfils to get to the semis at the US ....what did monfils do ??lost in the first rounds

mangoes
01-13-2006, 07:04 PM
Monfils has a lot of potential and he is getting better and better. He just needs some more time.

I think his predictions of Ancic being in the semifinals is a bit questionable too.

Lleytonisthebest
01-13-2006, 08:23 PM
lol wertheim ...so funny this guy! i bet there will be a semifinal federer - karlovic

Lleytonisthebest
01-13-2006, 08:24 PM
yes that's true but however i don't see monfils be better than a top15

shotgun
01-13-2006, 08:25 PM
I think his predictions of Ancic being in the semifinals is a bit questionable too.

He did the same in Wimbledon last year. He jinxed Ancic...

heya
01-13-2006, 09:11 PM
Monfils did win a tiebreak in Doha.

....It must suck being a Worthless American 'writer'.

Merton
01-13-2006, 09:16 PM
If i recall correctly he predicted Monfils would make the semis in the U.S. Open. Well, we know what happened. I don't know, it seems that he always picks three favourites and one "dark horse" for the semifinals. Does anybody else observe that pattern?

vincayou
01-13-2006, 09:56 PM
I'd like everybody here to pick their semi finalist and let's look back at the results in 2 weeks and see who is better at it than Wertheim.

If he was picking the 4 first seeds, people would complain that he takes no risks. Ancic and Monfils are good choices, especially Ancic.

Lleytonisthebest
01-14-2006, 10:01 AM
don't think so my semifinals are : federer-hewitt and nalbandian-ginepri

Clara Bow
01-14-2006, 04:59 PM
Let me preface this by saying you take away Federer, Roddick and Hewitt, I would take the 17- to 32-seeded players over the 1-16 seeds.

Wow- he really is not giving Nalbandian much of a chance. Is this just because of the stomach virus?

When is Pim Pim projected to come back to the tour? He has been out for a long time!

sigmagirl91
01-14-2006, 05:04 PM
Wow- he really is not giving Nalbandian much of a chance. Is this just because of the stomach virus?



Probably.

keep_er_lit!
01-14-2006, 05:04 PM
I thought for a minute that Joachim was actually going to be playing :sad:

Deboogle!.
01-14-2006, 05:48 PM
When is Pim Pim projected to come back to the tour? He has been out for a long time!He's entered in San jose, that starts Feb 13...don't see him on any lists before then

WF4EVER
01-14-2006, 10:15 PM
I'd like everybody here to pick their semi finalist and let's look back at the results in 2 weeks and see who is better at it than Wertheim.

If he was picking the 4 first seeds, people would complain that he takes no risks. Ancic and Monfils are good choices, especially Ancic.

Federer-Hewitt and Roddick-Blake

Whether I'm even close or not, Roddick IMO is in the best shape to win OZ.

I want Federer to win but I'm not feeling his confidence or his game to go all the way.

disturb3d
01-14-2006, 10:21 PM
Roddick has no chance of making the semis.
Dave is gonna punish Andy's backhand moon-balls, destroy him just like he did Ljubicic and Davydenko.

kabuki
01-15-2006, 01:06 AM
Good ole Werthless.

Jimnik
01-15-2006, 03:34 AM
Roddick has no chance of making the semis.
Dave is gonna punish Andy's backhand moon-balls, destroy him just like he did Ljubicic and Davydenko.
If you're referring to Nalba, he doesn't meet Andy until the semis.

Jimnik
01-15-2006, 03:37 AM
I don't know, I think this Jon Wertheim makes more sense than some of the posters here.

No, I'm sure his predictions won't be spot on but I challenge anyone to make perfect predictions. I bet no-one will.