Super Saturday! [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Super Saturday!

Horatio Caine
01-13-2006, 10:18 AM
Odds from willHill just out...

1.50 Ancic v Nieminen 2.50

1.36 Blake v Andreev 3.00

Blake is too short for my liking. Pleasantly surprised by Super Mario's odds...look good to pound. :cool:

Bolar Bolabi
01-13-2006, 10:43 AM
I'll post my selections with a write-up. First time I do a brief right up of my tennis selections.

Parlay

Ancic X Blake @ $2.05

Ancic is a choker, as is Nieminen. However, I can't go past Ancic's form. He's been on fire.

Blake should beat that headcase in straight sets.

Singles:

Tommy Haas @ $3.10 (Over Roddick)

Tommy has been sensational this week. He has looked solid. This will be a 3 setter with Haas winning. His price is too good to ignore.

Tommy Haas 2 - 1 sets @ $5.00

See above - it will be a tight match. Whoever wins, will win in 3.

Mario Ancic 2 - 1 sets @ $4.10

See my above write-up of Ancic. As he has a tendancy to choke, I can see this being a 3 setter. Same as above - whoever wins this match will win in 3 sets.

Good luck!

*Post edited to tell who Haas is playing

Breaker
01-13-2006, 10:53 AM
Ancic is the play in my opinion. I can't trust Blake at those odds while he continues to struggle throughout his service games.

I won't be going huge on Ancic, however he is definately worth a shot at around $1.50 - $1.55.

Horatio Caine
01-13-2006, 10:58 AM
Bolar - I know I am the King of waffle in my analysis, but you take succinct a little too far! ;) I mean for instance, who the hell does Haas play anyway? :tape:

Horatio Caine
01-13-2006, 11:05 AM
Ancic is the play in my opinion. I can't trust Blake at those odds while he continues to struggle throughout his service games.

I won't be going huge on Ancic, however he is definately worth a shot at around $1.50 - $1.55.

Yeah agree with you Benny :yeah:

Blake looks more comfortable in that he leads 2/0 h2h but he is untrustworthy.

Ancic is a little dicey in that he has lost their only encounter (tight match on clay last year) but he has been awesome this week, especially considering the conditions. But Nieminen won't lose finals forever though... :scared:

I was thinking of upping the stakes to 20% of my balance from the match but I'm not sure whether I trust Mario enough. :scratch:

Breaker
01-13-2006, 11:18 AM
I was thinking of upping the stakes to 20% of my balance from the match but I'm not sure whether I trust Mario enough. :scratch:

I'd never place 20% of my balance on Ancic, you'd be flirting with danger there. Having said that, Ancic seems to have hit form at the right time. I think 0.5 Units will be enough for me on this one. No need to force it, especially so close to the Aus Open.

ClaycourtaZzZz.
01-13-2006, 11:24 AM
AO qualies:

Michael Lammer over Michael Russel @2.25 to win 5 units.

Good Luck!:)

JMG
01-13-2006, 12:08 PM
With u on Lammer!

Lammer @2.25

Benneteau @1.80

Tipsarevic @1.40

smaller play on
Patience @1.60

Bolar Bolabi
01-13-2006, 12:08 PM
Bolar - I know I am the King of waffle in my analysis, but you take succinct a little too far! ;) I mean for instance, who the hell does Haas play anyway? :tape:

Roddick

I'll edit my post accordingly.

NewTennisFan
01-13-2006, 01:04 PM
I like Ancic in three sets. But I'm not sure that at 1.50 he's really worth a bet to win. The line should definitely be closer than that, wherever a choker like Ancic is concerned. That is to say, it should be closer in order to justify a bet. Actually Nieminen isn't bad at all at 2.50.

Doesn't anybody think much of Blake X Jaarko @ 3.40?

Horatio Caine
01-13-2006, 01:32 PM
I like Ancic in three sets. But I'm not sure that at 1.50 he's really worth a bet to win. The line should definitely be closer than that, wherever a choker like Ancic is concerned. That is to say, it should be closer in order to justify a bet. Actually Nieminen isn't bad at all at 2.50.

Doesn't anybody think much of Blake X Jaarko @ 3.40?

1. Considering Ancic's form and scorelines this week - 1.50 is quite good and certainly better than I was expecting.

2. This is the first time that Nieminen has gone past a QF on Reebound Ace...Ancic has done this several times. Nieminen has never until now won a title despite several finals...Ancic is now in the winner's circle.

3. Blake has won all bar 1 of his titles in the US. He is favourite to win but his serve was picked off a lot yesterday. Andreev seems to be like a tank...I thought he'd have run out of steam by now but he still keeps going so don't rule out another gruelling win.

4. Blake is unreliable at times x Jarrko as a somewhat big underdog = flush money down toilet parlay. ;)

But hey, if it comes off then good on yer! :yeah:

Luke
01-13-2006, 01:43 PM
In my mind.. Blake is not worth to play at this stake. he and Ginperi are kind of players who play their best tennis during big tournaments.. so upcoming AO will be worth to play these two guys.

As it goes for today, Ancic seems to be the most sure one.. with this form he's able to beat Nieminen.

ClaycourtaZzZz.
01-13-2006, 02:13 PM
With u on Lammer!

Lammer @2.25

Benneteau @1.80

Tipsarevic @1.40

smaller play on
Patience @1.60
Good Luck!

Your bookie is BAW, right?
I might add Mirnyi over Coria, looks good to me.
Coria always has his problems with big servers. ;)

JMG
01-13-2006, 02:31 PM
Good Luck!

Your bookie is BAW, right?
I might add Mirnyi over Coria, looks good to me.
Coria always has his problems with big servers. ;)

Mix of BAW and gamebookers. ;)

ClaycourtaZzZz.
01-13-2006, 02:33 PM
BAW sucks:rolleyes: Crap odds:(
Did ya get your 10Euro bonus?:p:haha::tape:

Mistaflava
01-13-2006, 02:36 PM
Guys, I don't know anymore. The line opened at much worse odds than this and for some strange reason it is dropping. Why would it be dropping if everyone is on Ancic? Somebody knows something we don't or do they? Based on my experience in other sports, line dropping like this when everyone is on a certain player is not good news. Ancic should dominate this Finals for his 2nd ATP Title. Jarkko is dead tired from his marathon match against Rochus last night but he might have enough adrenaline to win his first ever ATP Title.

The money movement is too weird for me and I am not playing this.

Good Luck to all who play it and see you at the Aussie Open!



:eek:

JMG
01-13-2006, 02:36 PM
Can't remember exatly, but I think I got a little bonus. ;)

Doctor Dance
01-13-2006, 02:40 PM
you all have to get your heads checked backing ancic at such a low price in a final, good to see you all are holding hands, got like public play :)

no value for me, i will play little on Nieminen to win

Mistaflava
01-13-2006, 02:47 PM
Doctor...the strange line movement alone is making me want to back Nieminen. Ancic should be a much bigger favorite and the line should not be dropping. Like I said, somebody knows something we don't....

Doctor Dance
01-13-2006, 02:56 PM
where are you seeing this MFlava? I think Ancic was $1.50 to begin with, but you are right, with my book he has not moved.

Last year Ancic cruised through in both Tokyo and Scottsdale and choked in final. Why back him? Ok he might win this time but to say just because he has played well this week?

Until he is more consistent in his career I would not be backing him

all the best

bad gambler
01-13-2006, 03:03 PM
where are you seeing this MFlava? I think Ancic was $1.50 to begin with, but you are right, with my book he has not moved.

Last year Ancic cruised through in both Tokyo and Scottsdale and choked in final. Why back him? Ok he might win this time but to say just because he has played well this week?

Until he is more consistent in his career I would not be backing him

all the best


:lol:

say it how it is DD

i agree, ancic is a fruitcake but at the same time I wouldn't be backing Nieminen just because he presents value - no bet for me, just bring on the AO

gl all with your bets

adk
01-13-2006, 03:08 PM
As of yesterday afternoon, the WH outright market for Auckland read:

Ancic 2.20, Rochus 4.00, Wawrinka 5.50, Niemenen 11.00

Needless to say, COME ON NIEMENEN!!!

mini bad gambler
01-13-2006, 03:14 PM
BAW sucks:rolleyes: Crap odds:(
Did ya get your 10Euro bonus?:p:haha::tape:

is this how murraymount is finding ways to reach a million by getting 10 euro bonuses :rolleyes:

ClaycourtaZzZz.
01-13-2006, 03:30 PM
is this how murraymount is finding ways to reach a million by getting 10 euro bonuses :rolleyes:
I didn't get a bonus. pimpy :rolleyes:

dbnumberone
01-13-2006, 03:41 PM
I'm not playing it either, I'm just not confident enough in the 2 favs w/ their flaky past...finish week 2 7-3 for +2 units (ytd 13-4, +14.3 units, all posted here) nothing great, but better than losing!

Horatio Caine
01-13-2006, 04:22 PM
I'm not playing it either, I'm just not confident enough in the 2 favs w/ their flaky past...finish week 2 7-3 for +2 units (ytd 13-4, +14.3 units, all posted here) nothing great, but better than losing!

a profit in 2 weeks of 14.3 units is not great? :eek:

Mate that is awesome...well done! :worship:

Horatio Caine
01-13-2006, 04:23 PM
he [Blake] and Ginperi are kind of players who play their best tennis during big tournaments.

Oh you gotta be kidding! :rolleyes:

Mistaflava
01-13-2006, 04:48 PM
where are you seeing this MFlava? I think Ancic was $1.50 to begin with, but you are right, with my book he has not moved.

Last year Ancic cruised through in both Tokyo and Scottsdale and choked in final. Why back him? Ok he might win this time but to say just because he has played well this week?

Until he is more consistent in his career I would not be backing him

all the best



some books have $1.57 for Ancic....that doesn't make sense

ClaycourtaZzZz.
01-13-2006, 04:53 PM
Skip those bets and get on Lammer.:yeah:

ClaycourtaZzZz.
01-13-2006, 04:55 PM
Odds dropped to 2.02:tape:

dbnumberone
01-13-2006, 05:24 PM
a profit in 2 weeks of 14.3 units is not great? :eek:

Mate that is awesome...well done! :worship:

:) I meant +2 for the week isn't great, but thanks & gl on your plays today!

Horatio Caine
01-13-2006, 07:05 PM
:) I meant +2 for the week isn't great, but thanks & gl on your plays today!

Lol mate - I didn't notice. Still, 2 unit profit is better than nothing ;)

Horatio Caine
01-13-2006, 07:07 PM
My play for today:

Mario Ancic @ 1.50

Analysis: http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1195

Lebowski
01-13-2006, 07:16 PM
Jarko +3.5 games @ 2.0

Advantage
01-13-2006, 10:07 PM
Here's a bunch of people I think are in good spots today, hopefully I do better than yesterday:

F.SANTORO/N.ZIMONJIC (AUS) -280
BETHANIA MATTEK (QUALIFYING) -110
ANASTASSIA RODIONOVA (QUALIFYING) -190
VICTORIA AZARENKA (QUALIFYING) -300
OLIVIER PATIENCE (QUALIFYING) -155
JACOB ADAKTUSSON (QUALIFYING) -195
MELLE VAN GEMERDEN (QUALIFYING) -165
YEN-HSUN LU (QUALIFYING) -300
KATERINA BOHMOVA (QUALIFYING) +135
TING LI (QUALIFYING) -210

Good luck to all.

ClaycourtaZzZz.
01-13-2006, 11:42 PM
AO qualies:

Michael Lammer over Michael Russel @2.25 to win 5 units.

Good Luck!:)
Very nice:smoke:

Lammer wins 7-5 6-1! :cool:

Great start into the AO :D

sports freak
01-13-2006, 11:57 PM
I'll post my selections with a write-up. First time I do a brief right up of my tennis selections.

Parlay

Ancic X Blake @ $2.05

Ancic is a choker, as is Nieminen. However, I can't go past Ancic's form. He's been on fire.

Blake should beat that headcase in straight sets.

Singles:

Tommy Haas @ $3.10 (Over Roddick)

Tommy has been sensational this week. He has looked solid. This will be a 3 setter with Haas winning. His price is too good to ignore.

Tommy Haas 2 - 1 sets @ $5.00

See above - it will be a tight match. Whoever wins, will win in 3.

Mario Ancic 2 - 1 sets @ $4.10

See my above write-up of Ancic. As he has a tendancy to choke, I can see this being a 3 setter. Same as above - whoever wins this match will win in 3 sets.

Good luck!

*Post edited to tell who Haas is playing

Nice pics mate,good luck!!!!Parlay is solid aswell,If Ancic is serving well then Jarkko gonna have a huge headache!!!Ancic's serves is hard to read n when going in is more of a problem!!!

Bolar Bolabi
01-14-2006, 12:43 AM
Thanks Freak.

If anyone presents value today, it's Haas.

ClaycourtaZzZz.
01-14-2006, 12:50 AM
Ancic is down. 2-6 2-4

Doctor Dance
01-14-2006, 12:56 AM
you all have to get your heads checked backing ancic at such a low price in a final, good to see you all are holding hands, got like public play :)

no value for me, i will play little on Nieminen to win

i told you so :shrug:

Doctor Dance
01-14-2006, 12:57 AM
all this has proved is establish the people who to fade for next week ;)

seriously, bad luck for your losses on mario, but you guys kind of deserved it backing him, as BG put it, he is a fruitcake especially in a final

Bolar Bolabi
01-14-2006, 01:03 AM
Yeah but this was Jarko he was playing.

Ahh well. Haas will win it back for me!

its.like.that
01-14-2006, 01:36 AM
Jarko +3.5 games @ 2.0

Bet like a man :rolleyes:

None of this handicap nonsense.

JMG
01-14-2006, 07:45 AM
With u on Lammer!

Lammer @2.25

Benneteau @1.80

Tipsarevic @1.40

smaller play on
Patience @1.60

3 easy wins, only the smaller play lost. :)