Motorola razr V3 - Wimbledon 2nd round thursday !!! [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Motorola razr V3 - Wimbledon 2nd round thursday !!!

g35-great
06-22-2005, 07:40 PM
the first round for the lower half was profitable.. now how about the 2nd round... any early tips?

Yoel and co.
06-22-2005, 09:25 PM
Not sure I understand your title...but here are some things that catch my eye:

Tojo @ 1.22
Wayne @ 1.53 - Another match of two serves, but Arthurs seems to me to be the one in shape

Djokovic @ 1.66 - Pick of the day for me

Grosjean @ 1.40 - Another good pick

Contemplating: Coria @ 1.66 or Malisse @ 2.1
Bracciali @ 9.00 (for the sake of it)
Kucera @ 5.00 (now that is VERY tempting)

On WTA, I think that Sesil has a real chance vs Sharapova, as do Peer and Peschke

adk
06-22-2005, 09:40 PM
Grosjean x Tojo POUNNNNNNND IT before Grosjean comes in from 1.40

adk
06-22-2005, 09:54 PM
Grosjean x Tojo POUNNNNNNND IT before Grosjean comes in from 1.40

And Djokovic

rich_a
06-22-2005, 10:06 PM
Tipsarevic to beat Lu @ 1.8 looks very tempting as does Conchita Martinez @ 1.62 and Srebotnik @ 1.57

Can't decide whether Malisse is great value @ 2.1 - he looked poor against Marray but he is a top grass player whereas Coria is poor on grass. What do you all reckon?

Yoel and co.
06-22-2005, 10:48 PM
Can't decide whether Malisse is great value @ 2.1 - he looked poor against Marray but he is a top grass player whereas Coria is poor on grass. What do you all reckon?

I think that after the first round, we can agree that Coria knows how to play on grass. I wouldn't take Malisse on a big bet.

MalmöKrampan
06-22-2005, 11:10 PM
Johansson x Grosjean x Stepanek x Melzer NAILED ON

rich_a
06-22-2005, 11:18 PM
I think that after the first round, we can agree that Coria knows how to play on grass. I wouldn't take Malisse on a big bet.

I'm still unconvinced by Coria. If you look at Malisse - his mental strength is still good. Was 3-0 down in final set and won 6games in a row I think. Coria isn't too convincing for me - I'll probably leave it but I wouldn't bet big on Coria

Ale10
06-22-2005, 11:19 PM
Early Wednesday picks:

Grosjean @1.37

Malisse @2.24

Sanguinetti @2.26

Bartoli x T.Johansson @1.75

ryydman
06-23-2005, 01:06 AM
Had a day off Wednesday, Thursday i'm on...

Grosjean x Gasquet x Nadal x Djokovic @ 2.65

Mirnyi x Tojo @ 1.87

I also think Sanguinetti @ EVENS is a good bet. Waiting for the Murray match for some betting in running. :devil:

dbnumberone
06-23-2005, 02:25 AM
$ingle on $anguinetti
good results from him lately, and I'm back to a bet involving Andreev, sheesh!

Doctor Dance
06-23-2005, 03:10 AM
ok so it seems everyone is betting grosjean, maybe go grosjean x arthurs?

what does people think about that?

Yoel and co.
06-23-2005, 06:16 AM
My bets for today -

Singles on Peer, Sesil, Peschke, Grosjean, Kucera (Nalbi beat him with great difficulties a couple of years ago), Bracciali and Djokovic

Parlays:

Peer * Sesil * Peschke (Gives 88.425 ! ;) )

Gasquet * Nadal * Grosjean * Ivanovic * Pierce * Venus

Kucera * Bracciali

Tojo * Arthurs * Djokovic * Grosjean

its.like.that
06-23-2005, 06:49 AM
just a few pointers:

1. why is everyone taking Djokovic? Garcia-Lopez hasnt played too badly on grass over the past couple weeks, and he is far more experienced than his counterpart, he doesnt deserve to be a 2.40 dog.

2. why underestimate the N's - Nadal and Nalbandian... there were some ridiculous bets posted on here the other day, Spadea +5.5, Sluiter to bt Nalbandian... when I thought those two had 2 of the easiest wins in the first round. Class shines through in slams, tread wearily when backing against 2 of the classiest players around.

its.like.that
06-23-2005, 06:52 AM
Mirnyi x Novak @ 2.72 - will do just fine :).

Yoel and co.
06-23-2005, 06:59 AM
just a few pointers:

1. why is everyone taking Djokovic? Garcia-Lopez hasnt played too badly on grass over the past couple weeks, and he is far more experienced than his counterpart, he doesnt deserve to be a 2.40 dog.



True, but Djokovic was very impressive in the qualifying and first round. I think he is a favourite here.

bad gambler
06-23-2005, 07:14 AM
lol, i don't generally bother with write ups but here goes...

Parlay:

Bartoli to beat Craybas x Daniilidou to beat Granville - pays $2.05 (10 units)

Bartoli is a comptetent grass court player. She moves well on the surface. She diposed of Fujiwara easily in the first round 2 & 2 and played impressively against an opponent who had some strong results in the lead up tournament in Birmingham in both qualifiers and main draw. Bartoli in Eastbourne took care of the impressive Likhovseta and Raymond before sucumbing to injury to Douchevina. Based on what I saw in her forst round match, it's safe to say she is fit and any signs of injury can be dispelled. Her opponent Craybas was unimpressive in beating Harkleroad, even more unimpressive by the fact that the young American these days can only be considered as a prat time player given her continual struggles with injury. Anything less than a straight sets victory would suprise me here, a good play for anyone wishing to bump up there parlays today ;)

The next match is the more interesting one, a face off between two in form mid tier grass court players. As we all know the tall Greek Daniilidou took out Henin. This was always on the cards given Henin too a break after her French Open success where as Daniilidou strung together an impressive run in Birmingham, beating players such as Vaidisova and Sugiyama comfortably before giving the defending Wimbledon champ a run for her money in the Quarter Finals, losing 1-6 in the 3rd set. Granville also has strung together some decent performances in the lead up tournaments, namely in the lower tier Surbiton tournamnet where she made the final and in Birmingham where she reached the Semi Final. However it has to be noted that all were against weak opposition except for Molik in the 2nd round in Birmingham however as we know, Molik has been suffering from a chronic ankle injury which has subsequently sidelined her for a couple of months.

good luck to all, buy me a beer later

dbnumberone
06-23-2005, 07:16 AM
I just added a big bet on Elseneer, fav. surface is grass, won matches at Wimbledon before, most importantly huge payoff against Gasquet, who I realize should win but I've found enough reasons to think Els has enough value here to take a shot...

I've seen a lot of parlays w/ Gasquet on here, should be solid now that I've blown the kiss of death on Els :),gl all

Ays25
06-23-2005, 07:20 AM
I Follow you on that bg!
i hope you dont lose because of me lol

Ays25
06-23-2005, 08:03 AM
btw can someone tell me how to make a surebet with odds 1.84 one side and 2.36 the other side please!

SwiSha
06-23-2005, 08:09 AM
SEBBY + TOJO + PIERCE + TIMOTHY ...pound it

or maybe without Pierce...anyone thinking Vakulenko can beat Pierce?

rich_a
06-23-2005, 08:13 AM
Final plays are

Dandilidou x Bartoli @ 2.04 - had to follow BG on that one!
Grosjean x Tojo @ 1.66
Tipsarevic x Djokovic @ 2.83

Good luck all

gryzonko
06-23-2005, 08:20 AM
btw can someone tell me how to make a surebet with odds 1.84 one side and 2.36 the other side please!

home 56.19 +3.39
away 43.81 +3.39

its.like.that
06-23-2005, 08:35 AM
btw can someone tell me how to make a surebet with odds 1.84 one side and 2.36 the other side please!
:lol::lol::lol:

do you think before you ask questions?? lol

its.like.that
06-23-2005, 08:42 AM
I'll try tip the card:

Andreev over Sanguinetti
Gasquet over Elseneer
Novak over Santoro
Henman over Tursunov
Mirnyi over Rochus
Arthurs over Popp
Nadal over Muller
Melzer over Calatrava
Malisse over Coria
Garcia-Lopez over Djokovic
Grosjean over Hanescu
Nalbandian over Kucera
Johansson over Pavel
Lu over Tipsarevic
Roddick over Bracciali
Stepanek over Murray

*selections in bold are relatively safe and will return a parlay of 13.10

bad gambler
06-23-2005, 08:47 AM
btw can someone tell me how to make a surebet with odds 1.84 one side and 2.36 the other side please!

if you figure it out can you tell me as well?

SwiSha
06-23-2005, 08:50 AM
:lol:

SwiSha
06-23-2005, 09:02 AM
man fuck the WTA

HENMAN TOJO SEBBY

GOOD LUCK

Ays25
06-23-2005, 09:18 AM
if you figure it out can you tell me as well?

too late.. andreev was 1.80 @ gamebookers this morning and combinned with %100 safe bjorkman mirnyi doubles match was @ 1.90
and sanguinetti was @2.45 @betandwin.

but untill i figured out how to make a profit the odds changed dramatically
1.75 andreev (x with jonas/max 1.83) and 2.25 sanguinetti are most u can find so its no more worth it.

its.like.that
06-23-2005, 10:02 AM
btw can someone tell me how to make a surebet with odds 1.84 one side and 2.36 the other side please!
my apologies, I misread the 2 prices you posted.

In a 2 option bet (lets say A and B are these two options), when option A is available at 1.84, and option B at 2.36, that gives you a backing book percentage of:

(1.84 + 2.36)/(1.84 x 2.36) x 2^0 = 96.7 %

and we all know what a backing book percentage of less than 100 means ;)...

if you wish to stand to gain an equal profit from either outcome, we now have the following situation:

options:..............................A........... ..................B

stakes:...............................X........... ..................Y
odds:................................1.84......... ...............2.36
net profit:.................1.84 * X - (X +Y)........2.36 * Y - (Y + X)

2.36/1.84 = 1.28 approx.

in order to have equal profit resting on both outcomes, stake X must be equal to:

X = 1.28 * Y


I'll give you an example to illustrate. If you have 50 units on option B at odds of 2.36, and wish to "make a free bet" by arbing with option A at odds of 1.84, then you must place X units on option A.

X = 2.36/1.84 * 50 = 64.13 units (approx.)

now lets see what we stand to profit:

if option A wins: 64.13 * 1.84 - (64.13 + 50) = 3.87 units (approx.)

if option B wins: 50 * 2.36 - (50 + 64.13) = 3.87 units (approx.)



So to finally answer your question Mr. AYS, if you wish to have an equal profit resting on each outcome, for every unit you have on the option at 2.36, you must have 2.36/1.84 (or approximately 1.28) units on the option at 1.84 . From this, you will make 0.077 units (approx.) per unit that you outlay.


Hope this helps... :)

Ays25
06-23-2005, 10:22 AM
my apologies, I misread the 2 prices you posted.

In a 2 option bet (lets say A and B are these two options), when option A is available at 1.84, and option B at 2.36, that gives you a backing book percentage of:

(1.84 + 2.36)/(1.84 x 2.36) x 2^0 = 96.7 %

and we all know what a backing book percentage of less than 100 means ;)...

if you wish to stand to gain an equal profit from either outcome, we now have the following situation:

options:..............................A........... ..................B

stakes:...............................X........... ..................Y
odds:................................1.84......... ...............2.36
net profit:.................1.84 * X - (X +Y)........2.36 * Y - (Y + X)

2.36/1.84 = 1.28 approx.

in order to have equal profit resting on both outcomes, stake X must be equal to:

X = 1.28 * Y


I'll give you an example to illustrate. If you have 50 units on option B at odds of 2.36, and wish to "make a free bet" by arbing with option A at odds of 1.84, then you must place X units on option A.

X = 2.36/1.84 * 50 = 64.13 units (approx.)

now lets see what we stand to profit:

if option A wins: 64.13 * 1.84 - (64.13 + 50) = 3.87 units (approx.)

if option B wins: 50 * 2.36 - (50 + 64.13) = 3.87 units (approx.)



So to finally answer your question Mr. AYS, if you wish to have an equal profit resting on each outcome, for every unit you have on the option at 2.36, you must have 2.36/1.84 (or approximately 1.28) units on the option at 1.84 . From this, you will make 0.077 units (approx.) per unit that you outlay.


Hope this helps... :)

Well thanks a lot for the explination my friend, this time i missed the bus but i am totally aware for the next time.
i would do it with 1.90 and 2.45 with favoring sanguinetti a little but too late.

Btw anyone finds tempting No tie-break bet @2.10 in the game featuring Andy Roddick & Daniele Bracciali???

Yoel and co.
06-23-2005, 10:49 AM
Btw anyone finds tempting No tie-break bet @2.10 in the game featuring Andy Roddick & Daniele Bracciali???

I wouldn't take that one - everyone talks about the 51 aces that Karlovic delivered, but overlook the fact that Bracciali himself served 31 aces :devil:

its.like.that
06-23-2005, 11:03 AM
I wouldn't take that one - everyone talks about the 51 aces that Karlovic delivered, but overlook the fact that Bracciali himself served 31 aces :devil:
lol... mind you, Karlovic isn't exactly an ace at returning (pardon the pun) ;)

Yoel and co.
06-23-2005, 11:11 AM
lol... mind you, Karlovic isn't exactly an ace at returning (pardon the pun) ;)

Ah, but neither is Roddick (not as good as the other top seeds, anyway)

AceMaan
06-23-2005, 12:42 PM
Looks like i cursed Bartoli today

Yoel and co.
06-23-2005, 01:18 PM
$ingle on $anguinetti
good results from him lately, and I'm back to a bet involving Andreev, sheesh!

lol, apparently Andreev is as fickle as any WTA match ;)

Yoel and co.
06-23-2005, 04:01 PM
another lol - with Nadal and Henman out (and Djokovic in trouble) too many parlays down the drain :p

ryydman
06-23-2005, 05:30 PM
Not a good day today, but i covered my one parlay loss with some betting in running on Popp/Arthurs, i took Popp at 5/6. Probably the hardest match i've ever watched Popp won 14-12 in the 5th after serving each time to stay in the match... :worship: The guy has balls of STEEL!

ryydman
06-23-2005, 06:13 PM
Tojo just came in, any more doubters over Murray?

rich_a
06-23-2005, 07:52 PM
Final plays are

Dandilidou x Bartoli @ 2.04 - had to follow BG on that one!
Grosjean x Tojo @ 1.66
Tipsarevic x Djokovic @ 2.83

Good luck all

:banana: :banana:

BG does that get your respect? - my own picks win! I'm not sure if I should trust your opinion again though, maybe you should copy my picks in the future!

adk
06-23-2005, 08:14 PM
Grosjean x Tojo POUNNNNNNND IT before Grosjean comes in from 1.40

:banana:

adk
06-23-2005, 08:14 PM
And Djokovic

:banana:

Yoel and co.
06-23-2005, 08:31 PM
Not a great day for me, with parlays falling one after the other (Wayne and Nadal took care of that)

But Grosjean, Djokovic and Peshke took care of business :) if Bracciali manages to surprise duck tomorrow, that will be really good of him :)

Doctor Dance
06-24-2005, 02:05 AM
:banana: :banana:

BG does that get your respect? - my own picks win! I'm not sure if I should trust your opinion again though, maybe you should copy my picks in the future!


you compare yourself to bg? why copy him then?, please :rolleyes:

its.like.that
06-24-2005, 07:34 AM
Tojo just came in, any more doubters over Murray?
no doubt, he's still shithouse :kiss:, and almost as ugly as Radek.

its.like.that
06-24-2005, 07:38 AM
:banana: :banana:

BG does that get your respect? - my own picks win! I'm not sure if I should trust your opinion again though, maybe you should copy my picks in the future!
:lol:

gotta love these overconfident kids with their smart mouths, and nothing to back them up...

rich_a
06-24-2005, 10:32 AM
:lol:

gotta love these overconfident kids with their smart mouths, and nothing to back them up...

Can nobody on these boards take a bit of gentle ribbing? I think the backing up of my confidence should be the fact that my picks came off :cool:

ryydman
06-24-2005, 10:43 AM
no doubt, he's still shithouse :kiss:, and almost as ugly as Radek.

But prettier than Davenport, and more elegant than Serena :devil:

MalmöKrampan
06-24-2005, 11:00 AM
Can nobody on these boards take a bit of gentle ribbing? I think the backing up of my confidence should be the fact that my picks came off :cool:

http://solastyear.com/watching.jpg

its.like.that
06-25-2005, 04:54 AM
http://solastyear.com/watching.jpg
:lol: